Author Topic: How are y'all preparing for the market collapse that President Trump is creating  (Read 17539 times)

FrugalSaver

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Will you just stay the course?

I'm FI but haven't RE'd yet but a 50% correction would guarantee more days / years at the office.  Are you liquidating shares while you can?

Even if his administrations policies don't cause collapse, the media is sounding the alarm 24/7 which causes people to be irrational.

UnleashHell

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what sort of numbers  we looking at.
Who takes enough notice of the media in terms of Trump and then translates that into actions in their investment account.
I mean serious what sort of Percentage in the market will be influenced enough by that.

Will it off set the ever increasing amounts of money flowing into the market through 401ks?

DarkandStormy

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This is what everyone said on 11.4.16.  Move along.

merlin7676

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Stay the course.
When the markets go down, I hear "stocks on sale" and try to scrounge up a bit extra here and there to apply it. More share at lower costs.
If the market literally tanked and wiped me out, well I think we'd have bigger fish to fry at that point

VoteCthulu

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I might go back to 100% equities, since every time people think Trump is going to tank the economy it hits a new high. Then I'll sell when all of the news starts predicting a bull market again.

thenextguy

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Will you just stay the course?

I'm FI but haven't RE'd yet but a 50% correction would guarantee more days / years at the office.  Are you liquidating shares while you can?

Even if his administrations policies don't cause collapse, the media is sounding the alarm 24/7 which causes people to be irrational.

A 50% decline is a bit more than a correction!

Laserjet3051

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Will you just stay the course?

I'm FI but haven't RE'd yet but a 50% correction would guarantee more days / years at the office.  Are you liquidating shares while you can?

Even if his administrations policies don't cause collapse, the media is sounding the alarm 24/7 which causes people to be irrational.

At best, your claim is irrational; at worst, dangerous. Your title claims Trump will cause market collapse, but in the main body of your text, you argue that it may not happen. You can't claim both, pick one and stand behind it.

PDXTabs

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1. I welcome a Trump dump since I'm still working.
2. I'm 100% invested in VTWSX, so a US stock market crash would only hurt me so much (I believe that VTWSX is ~60% US). With that said, a US crash (or a Chinese crash) would probably spread globally.
3. I'm more "worried" about the debt situation in China than I am Trump in the short/medium term. Long term I absolutely worry about the US political climate for long term prosperity.

zinnie

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I'm staying the course. If anything, it seems like Trump in office is holding the market down from where it wants to be/ would have been with more stability. Every time he hasn't directly threatened nuclear war or failed miserably to pass something we are seeing pretty good growth.

There will clearly be a drop at some point while he is in office, whether due to war, impeachment, hacking, recession, constitutional crisis, etc. But it seems like the underlying economy is still strong and those things will likely be temporary. Individual presidents have little influence on the overall economy (though that doesn't stop them from taking credit for gains and blaming their predecessors for losses).

(I freaked out when Trump was elected and tried to convince my husband to sell our taxable account so we'd at least have some money to go have fun for a while. Luckily, he talked me out of it. Then I watched it go up, and up, and up. Lesson learned.)

So, I'm staying the course. I fully expect it to get pretty ugly for a while. I also think/hope we will recover from it.

talltexan

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Anti-Trumper here:

I believe stock market will go up under Trump because regulators will allow firms to be more profitable, and  corporate tax reform will be done in a way that is more favorable to corp's. You won't want to miss the jump in markets when they get that done.

It's possible to both oppose Trump and insure yourself against the effects of his policies by owning the publicly traded companies that benefit from them.

bobechs

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Looks like the usual market timing contingent all got Trump masks  as door prizes at some market timers seminar.

Trudie

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Anti-Trumper here:

I believe stock market will go up under Trump because regulators will allow firms to be more profitable, and  corporate tax reform will be done in a way that is more favorable to corp's. You won't want to miss the jump in markets when they get that done.

It's possible to both oppose Trump and insure yourself against the effects of his policies by owning the publicly traded companies that benefit from them.

Ditto.

Stimpy

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Anti-Trumper here:

I believe stock market will go up under Trump because regulators will allow firms to be more profitable, and  corporate tax reform will be done in a way that is more favorable to corp's. You won't want to miss the jump in markets when they get that done.

It's possible to both oppose Trump and insure yourself against the effects of his policies by owning the publicly traded companies that benefit from them.

Honestly I saw a major correction coming last March (give or take a couple of months), but as long as the fools keep believing his lies things will go up.

Who knows when the correction will happen.  But my plan doesn't change when the correction happens.  Sit tight, and buy (more) at the bottom (or close) and ride it back up!

PDXTabs

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It's possible to both oppose Trump and insure yourself against the effects of his policies by owning the publicly traded companies that benefit from them.

Not to disagree with you, but also, what if you are wrong? What if Trump manages to tank the US economy? Even then, is there some better place to have your wealth than something like VTWSX? I mean, if Trump tanks the US economy he may also ruin the US Dollar. In that sense, VTWSX seems a lot safer than having dollars.

flyersman

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I always see. "When the markets go down, things are on sale and I buy more".

What do you guys typically buy? TSM or Index funds or individual equities?

What is your go too buy when a dip happens.

zinnie

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Long term I absolutely worry about the US political climate for long term prosperity.

The is the more important point to consider, in my opinion. Short-term things will likely stay similar to how they have been. But societies don't stay the same forever, and there is no guarantee that the U.S. is going to be one to stand the test of time. Most of us are banking on things being pretty similar in the future to how they have been in the past, but those who have studied history know that change is the only guarantee. A declining influence of the U.S. would make a huge difference for prosperity. We have yet to find out whether what is happening now is a blip or a trajectory. I personally think we still have a lot of time to watch, and decide.

GenXbiker

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I might go back to 100% equities, since every time people think Trump is going to tank the economy it hits a new high.

Yeah, I'll let the naysayers dump their stocks while I continue to ride the Trump stock market bull run to prosperity and FIRE!


SeattleCPA

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I don't plan on doing anything that smacks of market timing...

I do think that having a good asset allocation plan, not freaking out, doing regular simulations, and then being okay with a variable withdrawal will largely mitigate the next crash whenever that happens and no matter what the trigger...

More detailed thoughts here:

http://evergreensmallbusiness.com/bear-market-survival-tactics/

DarkandStormy

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I believe stock market will go up under Trump because regulators will allow firms to be more profitable, and  corporate tax reform will be done in a way that is more favorable to corp's. You won't want to miss the jump in markets when they get that done.

*IF

Dicey

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1. We have a broad range of asset classes in our portfolio.
2. We're sitting on a ton o' cash, because we like to do stuff like flip houses or buy rentals with it.
3. No mortgage on primary home.
4. We have rental properties.
5. DH is still working.

If the market takes a huge dump, we'll buy a little more of everything, 'cause we like to buy things when they're on sale. Therefore:

6. We don't worry much about what will happen. We're in it for the long haul.

Imustacheyouaquestion

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Following my investment plan, which is to say continuing to invest at my planned asset allocation percentages with every paycheck and rebalancing quarterly if needed. Yawn.

merlin7676

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I always see. "When the markets go down, things are on sale and I buy more".

What do you guys typically buy? TSM or Index funds or individual equities?

What is your go too buy when a dip happens.

I'd just add more to the investments I already have. 401K, index funds, ect.  I'd just try to find way to cut back even more like defer a vacation or planned home improvement project, divert money from my general savings account, cut back on a hobby, that sort of thing.
It wouldn't work out to a lot of extra money to throw at it but I'd definitely downsize/go extreme frugal for a while to add a few hundred bucks extra in the pot.

KBecks

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Guns.  Lots of guns.

Car Jack

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I'm old.  50/50 with a lot of the bonds in iBonds.  If the market tanks, I'll rebalance and buy the cheap equities. 

Retire-Canada

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I'm not doing anything. If Trump has proved anything in his term so far it is that he is unlikely to get anything done and the US economy can work with that.

rugorak

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Stay the course. If you are asking this sort of question you are missing the point of pretty much every non-scammy FIRE plan. It is supposed to be boring even if we have a crash. And a 50% crash is hyperbole honestly.

Much of the hoopla from this administration has more to do with what is said, what they want to do, and what they don't do, rather than what they have actually done. And of what they actually have done, or even not done, very little will have any impact on your portfolio. It may have other impacts you care about but financially relax. Go back to boring. Boring works.


theolympians

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Sounds like timing the market. This should be posted under the "top is in" thread.

fattest_foot

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Your political bias is causing you to act financially irrational.

It might be time to read JLCollins' stock series again, or perhaps turn off the news.

OurTown

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I have 2 real worries:  1) nuclear first strike, 2) failure to raise the debt limit.

Absent one of those, the Trump tweets will bring us a little market noise, but long term the market will act independently of politics.  Stay the course.

DarkandStormy

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Financial.Velociraptor

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The old saw in the markets is "Shopping trumps politics."  It makes very little difference what happens in Washington.  The markets respond to spending, and to drama only on a short term basis.  You should be watching the Fed a lot closer than Trump.  And the consumer confidence numbers even closer.

sol

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I'm staying the course, continuing to DCA into my chosen asset allocation and rebalancing regularly.  If a downturn comes, I'll be partly protected by diversification.  If the rally continues, I'll partly benefit by that same diversification.  My anticipated (life expectancy) time horizon is still long enough that I don't worry too much about individual market cycles.

I follow the news pretty closely, but it doesn't impact any of my investment decisions. 

Gondolin

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Wait, George Bush isn't President anymore?


wienerdog

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Wait, George Bush isn't President anymore?

I guess he could only be blamed for 8 years.  New era now.

Eric

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The president, any president, has very little control over the profits/innovations/technological advances of any company or industry.  The idea that the president will cause the markets to move in a certain direction holds as much water as the president controlling the price of gas.  Makes a good facebook post for your Uncle Charlie to use to bash the other side though.

wienerdog

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The president, any president, has very little control over the profits/innovations/technological advances of any company or industry.

That sure wasn't the theory back in October before the election.  All I remember reading is that if Hillary won stocks would go up and if Trump won stocks would go down.  Of course this was in the Off Topic section so I am not sure what to believe.  I think 90% of the people in there said Hillary would win and look where we are now.

mnmiracle

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Let's say it's correct that the market corrects.  What kind of changes will folks make?  For example, right now I contribute up to the march for my 401k, but could contribute as much as 50% of my paycheck.  Should I draw down savings and contribute more to my 401k when the market dips? 

Eric

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The president, any president, has very little control over the profits/innovations/technological advances of any company or industry.

That sure wasn't the theory back in October before the election.  All I remember reading is that if Hillary won stocks would go up and if Trump won stocks would go down.  Of course this was in the Off Topic section so I am not sure what to believe.  I think 90% of the people in there said Hillary would win and look where we are now.

You should stop believing people's predictions about market movements then.  Predictions are hard, especially about the future.

Of course people thought Hillary would win.  Why would we elect a certified moron with the maturity of a 10 year old who is an admitted misogynist creep with literally zero government experience?  I would bet against that happening every time too.  But that doesn't really have anything to do with whether a president, even one as senile as this one, has any influence over the stock market.


PDXTabs

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powskier

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Before the election it was : " market will tank if Trump wins". He won and the market soared.
If he resigns or is impeached do we think market goes up because  slightly less crazy VP and smarter politician, or do they go down because his base starts a civil war? I don't know and neither does anyone.
Invest to be comfortable with all and any outcomes. Also turn off the news.


davisgang90

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You should get out of the market and put all your money in your mattress. 

ender

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The market has been "about to collapse" for nearly half a decade now.

Eventually it will, and unfortunately, people will pat themselves on the back for finally foreseeing it, without recognizing how many people have been crying wolf falsely for the many years preceding it.

It will inevitably be blamed on a politician that one dislikes.

toganet

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I don't blame or credit Trump or any President for the performance of the market -- their role is only one of many, many factors that influence how things play out over time.  I see the "Trump Bump" as more of a reaction to reduced uncertainty prior to the election.  Both candidates were friendly to business, despite what the rhetoric might be.

So my preparation is the same as always -- I keep contributing as much as I can according to my investment policy.  I will admit that I revised my investment policy recently, partially in reaction to current conditions, but mostly to further simplify it and update it to reflect that I -- against my will -- got older this year.

caffeine

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Power of the Presidency over the market is limited. Causes of a bubble is usually already in motion despite policy.

Try an exercise and google 'S&P 500' every day for a year. Read the news articles written on it. Market Watch is a favorite of mine. Everyday is either doomsday or the greatest day. Everyday is since Trump is elected is either "Trump Bull Market continues" or "Trump Bull Market is Over".

If you want the media to control your portfolio, then you'd be in line with some people who decided to sell everything after Trump was elected - which has proven to be a poor decision so far. Avoid knee jerks reactions. They don't pan out.

trollwithamustache

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Please remove the word Trump from your title and replace it with Forward PE ratio. Then we might be able to have a rational conversation about equity evaluation.

v8rx7guy

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If it happens, I thought we blamed downturns on previous presidents... weird.

Eric

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Try an exercise and google 'S&P 500' every day for a year. Read the news articles written on it. Market Watch is a favorite of mine. Everyday is either doomsday or the greatest day. Everyday is since Trump is elected is either "Trump Bull Market continues" or "Trump Bull Market is Over".

If you find any good ones, you can add them to this thread:

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/hilarious-'reasons'-for-market-movement/

GuitarStv

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You should get out of the market and put all your money in your mattress.

You should sell your mattress and sleep directly on the pile of money on your floor.

Trudie

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Well, Trump might precipitate a government shutdown (which he has already taken credit for) and cripple the markets and livelihoods of lots of people:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2017/08/25/trump-is-threatening-a-government-shutdown-heres-what-that-looks-like/?hpid=hp_hp-morning-mix_mm-shutdown%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.de1803b674fe

These are uncertain and worrisome times.