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Learning, Sharing, and Teaching => Investor Alley => Topic started by: FrugalSaver on August 23, 2017, 08:19:46 AM

Title: How are y'all preparing for the market collapse that President Trump is creating
Post by: FrugalSaver on August 23, 2017, 08:19:46 AM
Will you just stay the course?

I'm FI but haven't RE'd yet but a 50% correction would guarantee more days / years at the office.  Are you liquidating shares while you can?

Even if his administrations policies don't cause collapse, the media is sounding the alarm 24/7 which causes people to be irrational.
Title: Re: How are y'all preparing for the market collapse that President Trump is creating
Post by: UnleashHell on August 23, 2017, 08:22:49 AM
what sort of numbers  we looking at.
Who takes enough notice of the media in terms of Trump and then translates that into actions in their investment account.
I mean serious what sort of Percentage in the market will be influenced enough by that.

Will it off set the ever increasing amounts of money flowing into the market through 401ks?
Title: Re: How are y'all preparing for the market collapse that President Trump is creating
Post by: DarkandStormy on August 23, 2017, 08:27:30 AM
This is what everyone said on 11.4.16.  Move along.
Title: Re: How are y'all preparing for the market collapse that President Trump is creating
Post by: merlin7676 on August 23, 2017, 08:38:24 AM
Stay the course.
When the markets go down, I hear "stocks on sale" and try to scrounge up a bit extra here and there to apply it. More share at lower costs.
If the market literally tanked and wiped me out, well I think we'd have bigger fish to fry at that point
Title: Re: How are y'all preparing for the market collapse that President Trump is creating
Post by: VoteCthulu on August 23, 2017, 08:41:25 AM
I might go back to 100% equities, since every time people think Trump is going to tank the economy it hits a new high. Then I'll sell when all of the news starts predicting a bull market again.
Title: Re: How are y'all preparing for the market collapse that President Trump is creating
Post by: thenextguy on August 23, 2017, 08:50:53 AM
Will you just stay the course?

I'm FI but haven't RE'd yet but a 50% correction would guarantee more days / years at the office.  Are you liquidating shares while you can?

Even if his administrations policies don't cause collapse, the media is sounding the alarm 24/7 which causes people to be irrational.

A 50% decline is a bit more than a correction!
Title: Re: How are y'all preparing for the market collapse that President Trump is creating
Post by: Laserjet3051 on August 23, 2017, 08:57:57 AM
Will you just stay the course?

I'm FI but haven't RE'd yet but a 50% correction would guarantee more days / years at the office.  Are you liquidating shares while you can?

Even if his administrations policies don't cause collapse, the media is sounding the alarm 24/7 which causes people to be irrational.

At best, your claim is irrational; at worst, dangerous. Your title claims Trump will cause market collapse, but in the main body of your text, you argue that it may not happen. You can't claim both, pick one and stand behind it.
Title: Re: How are y'all preparing for the market collapse that President Trump is creating
Post by: PDXTabs on August 23, 2017, 08:58:34 AM
1. I welcome a Trump dump since I'm still working.
2. I'm 100% invested in VTWSX, so a US stock market crash would only hurt me so much (I believe that VTWSX is ~60% US). With that said, a US crash (or a Chinese crash) would probably spread globally.
3. I'm more "worried" about the debt situation in China than I am Trump in the short/medium term. Long term I absolutely worry about the US political climate for long term prosperity.
Title: Re: How are y'all preparing for the market collapse that President Trump is creating
Post by: zinnie on August 23, 2017, 08:59:56 AM
I'm staying the course. If anything, it seems like Trump in office is holding the market down from where it wants to be/ would have been with more stability. Every time he hasn't directly threatened nuclear war or failed miserably to pass something we are seeing pretty good growth.

There will clearly be a drop at some point while he is in office, whether due to war, impeachment, hacking, recession, constitutional crisis, etc. But it seems like the underlying economy is still strong and those things will likely be temporary. Individual presidents have little influence on the overall economy (though that doesn't stop them from taking credit for gains and blaming their predecessors for losses).

(I freaked out when Trump was elected and tried to convince my husband to sell our taxable account so we'd at least have some money to go have fun for a while. Luckily, he talked me out of it. Then I watched it go up, and up, and up. Lesson learned.)

So, I'm staying the course. I fully expect it to get pretty ugly for a while. I also think/hope we will recover from it.
Title: Re: How are y'all preparing for the market collapse that President Trump is creating
Post by: talltexan on August 23, 2017, 09:01:49 AM
Anti-Trumper here:

I believe stock market will go up under Trump because regulators will allow firms to be more profitable, and  corporate tax reform will be done in a way that is more favorable to corp's. You won't want to miss the jump in markets when they get that done.

It's possible to both oppose Trump and insure yourself against the effects of his policies by owning the publicly traded companies that benefit from them.
Title: Re: How are y'all preparing for the market collapse that President Trump is creating
Post by: bobechs on August 23, 2017, 09:05:46 AM
Looks like the usual market timing contingent all got Trump masks  as door prizes at some market timers seminar.
Title: Re: How are y'all preparing for the market collapse that President Trump is creating
Post by: Trudie on August 23, 2017, 09:06:37 AM
Anti-Trumper here:

I believe stock market will go up under Trump because regulators will allow firms to be more profitable, and  corporate tax reform will be done in a way that is more favorable to corp's. You won't want to miss the jump in markets when they get that done.

It's possible to both oppose Trump and insure yourself against the effects of his policies by owning the publicly traded companies that benefit from them.

Ditto.
Title: Re: How are y'all preparing for the market collapse that President Trump is creating
Post by: Stimpy on August 23, 2017, 09:10:43 AM
Anti-Trumper here:

I believe stock market will go up under Trump because regulators will allow firms to be more profitable, and  corporate tax reform will be done in a way that is more favorable to corp's. You won't want to miss the jump in markets when they get that done.

It's possible to both oppose Trump and insure yourself against the effects of his policies by owning the publicly traded companies that benefit from them.

Honestly I saw a major correction coming last March (give or take a couple of months), but as long as the fools keep believing his lies things will go up.

Who knows when the correction will happen.  But my plan doesn't change when the correction happens.  Sit tight, and buy (more) at the bottom (or close) and ride it back up!
Title: Re: How are y'all preparing for the market collapse that President Trump is creating
Post by: PDXTabs on August 23, 2017, 09:10:56 AM
It's possible to both oppose Trump and insure yourself against the effects of his policies by owning the publicly traded companies that benefit from them.

Not to disagree with you, but also, what if you are wrong? What if Trump manages to tank the US economy? Even then, is there some better place to have your wealth than something like VTWSX? I mean, if Trump tanks the US economy he may also ruin the US Dollar. In that sense, VTWSX seems a lot safer than having dollars.
Title: Re: How are y'all preparing for the market collapse that President Trump is creating
Post by: flyersman on August 23, 2017, 09:11:06 AM
I always see. "When the markets go down, things are on sale and I buy more".

What do you guys typically buy? TSM or Index funds or individual equities?

What is your go too buy when a dip happens.
Title: Re: How are y'all preparing for the market collapse that President Trump is creating
Post by: zinnie on August 23, 2017, 09:13:22 AM
Long term I absolutely worry about the US political climate for long term prosperity.

The is the more important point to consider, in my opinion. Short-term things will likely stay similar to how they have been. But societies don't stay the same forever, and there is no guarantee that the U.S. is going to be one to stand the test of time. Most of us are banking on things being pretty similar in the future to how they have been in the past, but those who have studied history know that change is the only guarantee. A declining influence of the U.S. would make a huge difference for prosperity. We have yet to find out whether what is happening now is a blip or a trajectory. I personally think we still have a lot of time to watch, and decide.
Title: Re: How are y'all preparing for the market collapse that President Trump is creating
Post by: GenXbiker on August 23, 2017, 09:13:42 AM
I might go back to 100% equities, since every time people think Trump is going to tank the economy it hits a new high.

Yeah, I'll let the naysayers dump their stocks while I continue to ride the Trump stock market bull run to prosperity and FIRE!

Title: Re: How are y'all preparing for the market collapse that President Trump is creating
Post by: SeattleCPA on August 23, 2017, 09:14:57 AM
I don't plan on doing anything that smacks of market timing...

I do think that having a good asset allocation plan, not freaking out, doing regular simulations, and then being okay with a variable withdrawal will largely mitigate the next crash whenever that happens and no matter what the trigger...

More detailed thoughts here:

http://evergreensmallbusiness.com/bear-market-survival-tactics/
Title: Re: How are y'all preparing for the market collapse that President Trump is creating
Post by: DarkandStormy on August 23, 2017, 09:31:10 AM
I believe stock market will go up under Trump because regulators will allow firms to be more profitable, and  corporate tax reform will be done in a way that is more favorable to corp's. You won't want to miss the jump in markets when they get that done.

*IF
Title: Re: How are y'all preparing for the market collapse that President Trump is creating
Post by: Dicey on August 23, 2017, 10:03:24 AM
1. We have a broad range of asset classes in our portfolio.
2. We're sitting on a ton o' cash, because we like to do stuff like flip houses or buy rentals with it.
3. No mortgage on primary home.
4. We have rental properties.
5. DH is still working.

If the market takes a huge dump, we'll buy a little more of everything, 'cause we like to buy things when they're on sale. Therefore:

6. We don't worry much about what will happen. We're in it for the long haul.
Title: Re: How are y'all preparing for the market collapse that President Trump is creating
Post by: Imustacheyouaquestion on August 23, 2017, 10:09:49 AM
Following my investment plan, which is to say continuing to invest at my planned asset allocation percentages with every paycheck and rebalancing quarterly if needed. Yawn.
Title: Re: How are y'all preparing for the market collapse that President Trump is creating
Post by: merlin7676 on August 23, 2017, 10:31:57 AM
I always see. "When the markets go down, things are on sale and I buy more".

What do you guys typically buy? TSM or Index funds or individual equities?

What is your go too buy when a dip happens.

I'd just add more to the investments I already have. 401K, index funds, ect.  I'd just try to find way to cut back even more like defer a vacation or planned home improvement project, divert money from my general savings account, cut back on a hobby, that sort of thing.
It wouldn't work out to a lot of extra money to throw at it but I'd definitely downsize/go extreme frugal for a while to add a few hundred bucks extra in the pot.
Title: Re: How are y'all preparing for the market collapse that President Trump is creating
Post by: KBecks on August 23, 2017, 10:37:12 AM
Guns.  Lots of guns.
Title: Re: How are y'all preparing for the market collapse that President Trump is creating
Post by: Car Jack on August 23, 2017, 10:40:04 AM
I'm old.  50/50 with a lot of the bonds in iBonds.  If the market tanks, I'll rebalance and buy the cheap equities. 
Title: Re: How are y'all preparing for the market collapse that President Trump is creating
Post by: Retire-Canada on August 23, 2017, 10:44:41 AM
I'm not doing anything. If Trump has proved anything in his term so far it is that he is unlikely to get anything done and the US economy can work with that.
Title: Re: How are y'all preparing for the market collapse that President Trump is creating
Post by: rugorak on August 23, 2017, 10:52:04 AM
Stay the course. If you are asking this sort of question you are missing the point of pretty much every non-scammy FIRE plan. It is supposed to be boring even if we have a crash. And a 50% crash is hyperbole honestly.

Much of the hoopla from this administration has more to do with what is said, what they want to do, and what they don't do, rather than what they have actually done. And of what they actually have done, or even not done, very little will have any impact on your portfolio. It may have other impacts you care about but financially relax. Go back to boring. Boring works.

Title: Re: How are y'all preparing for the market collapse that President Trump is creating
Post by: theolympians on August 23, 2017, 10:57:10 AM
Sounds like timing the market. This should be posted under the "top is in" thread.
Title: Re: How are y'all preparing for the market collapse that President Trump is creating
Post by: fattest_foot on August 23, 2017, 11:04:09 AM
Your political bias is causing you to act financially irrational.

It might be time to read JLCollins' stock series again, or perhaps turn off the news.
Title: Re: How are y'all preparing for the market collapse that President Trump is creating
Post by: OurTown on August 23, 2017, 11:07:53 AM
I have 2 real worries:  1) nuclear first strike, 2) failure to raise the debt limit.

Absent one of those, the Trump tweets will bring us a little market noise, but long term the market will act independently of politics.  Stay the course.
Title: Re: How are y'all preparing for the market collapse that President Trump is creating
Post by: DarkandStormy on August 23, 2017, 11:35:15 AM
Go back to boring. Boring works.
https://www.boringcompany.com/ ??
Title: Re: How are y'all preparing for the market collapse that President Trump is creating
Post by: Financial.Velociraptor on August 23, 2017, 11:36:55 AM
The old saw in the markets is "Shopping trumps politics."  It makes very little difference what happens in Washington.  The markets respond to spending, and to drama only on a short term basis.  You should be watching the Fed a lot closer than Trump.  And the consumer confidence numbers even closer.
Title: Re: How are y'all preparing for the market collapse that President Trump is creating
Post by: sol on August 23, 2017, 11:56:41 AM
I'm staying the course, continuing to DCA into my chosen asset allocation and rebalancing regularly.  If a downturn comes, I'll be partly protected by diversification.  If the rally continues, I'll partly benefit by that same diversification.  My anticipated (life expectancy) time horizon is still long enough that I don't worry too much about individual market cycles.

I follow the news pretty closely, but it doesn't impact any of my investment decisions. 
Title: Re: How are y'all preparing for the market collapse that President Trump is creating
Post by: Gondolin on August 24, 2017, 06:43:01 AM
Wait, George Bush isn't President anymore?
Title: Re: How are y'all preparing for the market collapse that President Trump is creating
Post by: rugorak on August 24, 2017, 01:25:40 PM
Go back to boring. Boring works.
https://www.boringcompany.com/ ??
LOL
Title: Re: How are y'all preparing for the market collapse that President Trump is creating
Post by: wienerdog on August 24, 2017, 04:02:21 PM
Wait, George Bush isn't President anymore?

I guess he could only be blamed for 8 years.  New era now.
Title: Re: How are y'all preparing for the market collapse that President Trump is creating
Post by: Eric on August 24, 2017, 05:05:19 PM
The president, any president, has very little control over the profits/innovations/technological advances of any company or industry.  The idea that the president will cause the markets to move in a certain direction holds as much water as the president controlling the price of gas.  Makes a good facebook post for your Uncle Charlie to use to bash the other side though.
Title: Re: How are y'all preparing for the market collapse that President Trump is creating
Post by: wienerdog on August 24, 2017, 05:31:09 PM
The president, any president, has very little control over the profits/innovations/technological advances of any company or industry.

That sure wasn't the theory back in October before the election.  All I remember reading is that if Hillary won stocks would go up and if Trump won stocks would go down.  Of course this was in the Off Topic section so I am not sure what to believe.  I think 90% of the people in there said Hillary would win and look where we are now.
Title: Re: How are y'all preparing for the market collapse that President Trump is creating
Post by: mnmiracle on August 24, 2017, 06:12:23 PM
Let's say it's correct that the market corrects.  What kind of changes will folks make?  For example, right now I contribute up to the march for my 401k, but could contribute as much as 50% of my paycheck.  Should I draw down savings and contribute more to my 401k when the market dips? 
Title: Re: How are y'all preparing for the market collapse that President Trump is creating
Post by: Eric on August 24, 2017, 06:12:41 PM
The president, any president, has very little control over the profits/innovations/technological advances of any company or industry.

That sure wasn't the theory back in October before the election.  All I remember reading is that if Hillary won stocks would go up and if Trump won stocks would go down.  Of course this was in the Off Topic section so I am not sure what to believe.  I think 90% of the people in there said Hillary would win and look where we are now.

You should stop believing people's predictions about market movements then.  Predictions are hard, especially about the future.

Of course people thought Hillary would win.  Why would we elect a certified moron with the maturity of a 10 year old who is an admitted misogynist creep with literally zero government experience?  I would bet against that happening every time too.  But that doesn't really have anything to do with whether a president, even one as senile as this one, has any influence over the stock market.

Title: Re: How are y'all preparing for the market collapse that President Trump is creating
Post by: PDXTabs on August 24, 2017, 10:54:13 PM
OurTown, wienerdog,

A trade war could very much harm the US Economy and with it US stocks.

https://www.marketplace.org/2017/08/24/sustainability/trade-stories-globalization-and-backlash/what-was-one-worst-pieces-us-legislation
Title: Re: How are y'all preparing for the market collapse that President Trump is creating
Post by: powskier on August 24, 2017, 11:17:19 PM
Before the election it was : " market will tank if Trump wins". He won and the market soared.
If he resigns or is impeached do we think market goes up because  slightly less crazy VP and smarter politician, or do they go down because his base starts a civil war? I don't know and neither does anyone.
Invest to be comfortable with all and any outcomes. Also turn off the news.

Title: Re: How are y'all preparing for the market collapse that President Trump is creating
Post by: davisgang90 on August 25, 2017, 03:38:10 AM
You should get out of the market and put all your money in your mattress. 
Title: Re: How are y'all preparing for the market collapse that President Trump is creating
Post by: ender on August 25, 2017, 07:03:59 AM
The market has been "about to collapse" for nearly half a decade now.

Eventually it will, and unfortunately, people will pat themselves on the back for finally foreseeing it, without recognizing how many people have been crying wolf falsely for the many years preceding it.

It will inevitably be blamed on a politician that one dislikes.
Title: Re: How are y'all preparing for the market collapse that President Trump is creating
Post by: toganet on August 25, 2017, 07:37:22 AM
I don't blame or credit Trump or any President for the performance of the market -- their role is only one of many, many factors that influence how things play out over time.  I see the "Trump Bump" as more of a reaction to reduced uncertainty prior to the election.  Both candidates were friendly to business, despite what the rhetoric might be.

So my preparation is the same as always -- I keep contributing as much as I can according to my investment policy.  I will admit that I revised my investment policy recently, partially in reaction to current conditions, but mostly to further simplify it and update it to reflect that I -- against my will -- got older this year.
Title: Re: How are y'all preparing for the market collapse that President Trump is creating
Post by: caffeine on August 25, 2017, 07:48:23 AM
Power of the Presidency over the market is limited. Causes of a bubble is usually already in motion despite policy.

Try an exercise and google 'S&P 500' every day for a year. Read the news articles written on it. Market Watch is a favorite of mine. Everyday is either doomsday or the greatest day. Everyday is since Trump is elected is either "Trump Bull Market continues" or "Trump Bull Market is Over".

If you want the media to control your portfolio, then you'd be in line with some people who decided to sell everything after Trump was elected - which has proven to be a poor decision so far. Avoid knee jerks reactions. They don't pan out.
Title: Re: How are y'all preparing for the market collapse that President Trump is creating
Post by: trollwithamustache on August 25, 2017, 08:11:00 AM
Please remove the word Trump from your title and replace it with Forward PE ratio. Then we might be able to have a rational conversation about equity evaluation.
Title: Re: How are y'all preparing for the market collapse that President Trump is creating
Post by: v8rx7guy on August 25, 2017, 09:40:50 AM
If it happens, I thought we blamed downturns on previous presidents... weird.
Title: Re: How are y'all preparing for the market collapse that President Trump is creating
Post by: Eric on August 25, 2017, 10:06:03 AM
Try an exercise and google 'S&P 500' every day for a year. Read the news articles written on it. Market Watch is a favorite of mine. Everyday is either doomsday or the greatest day. Everyday is since Trump is elected is either "Trump Bull Market continues" or "Trump Bull Market is Over".

If you find any good ones, you can add them to this thread:

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/hilarious-'reasons'-for-market-movement/
Title: Re: How are y'all preparing for the market collapse that President Trump is creating
Post by: GuitarStv on August 25, 2017, 10:07:30 AM
You should get out of the market and put all your money in your mattress.

You should sell your mattress and sleep directly on the pile of money on your floor.
Title: Re: How are y'all preparing for the market collapse that President Trump is creating
Post by: Trudie on August 25, 2017, 10:30:49 AM
Well, Trump might precipitate a government shutdown (which he has already taken credit for) and cripple the markets and livelihoods of lots of people:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2017/08/25/trump-is-threatening-a-government-shutdown-heres-what-that-looks-like/?hpid=hp_hp-morning-mix_mm-shutdown%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.de1803b674fe

These are uncertain and worrisome times.
Title: Re: How are y'all preparing for the market collapse that President Trump is creating
Post by: ender on August 25, 2017, 11:17:05 AM
Well, Trump might precipitate a government shutdown (which he has already taken credit for) and cripple the markets and livelihoods of lots of people:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2017/08/25/trump-is-threatening-a-government-shutdown-heres-what-that-looks-like/?hpid=hp_hp-morning-mix_mm-shutdown%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.de1803b674fe

These are uncertain and worrisome times.

Fear mongering at its finest.

And even so, if you look at the SP500 chart over the past 5 years I challenge you to find, from that chart, when the last government shutdown happened. If this precipitates a market collapse surely the one under Obama should be obvious, no?
Title: Re: How are y'all preparing for the market collapse that President Trump is creating
Post by: toganet on August 25, 2017, 11:39:54 AM


Fear mongering at its finest.

And even so, if you look at the SP500 chart over the past 5 years I challenge you to find, from that chart, when the last government shutdown happened. If this precipitates a market collapse surely the one under Obama should be obvious, no?
[/quote]

I looked, and thought I saw the slightest dip in October of that year -- but it turns out I was looking at the wrong year!  During the period of the 2013 shutdown, the S&P500 stayed basically flat.  What's more interesting is looking at bond ETF's, they were falling prior to the shutdown, and then spiked upward starting at the beginning of the shutdown and continuing for a while.  Perhaps if the shutdown had lasted longer than 16 days we would have seen an impact on the equity side?  I hope we don't get to replay this scenario to find out, but I'll be watching either way.
Title: Re: How are y'all preparing for the market collapse that President Trump is creating
Post by: libertarian4321 on August 25, 2017, 12:03:17 PM
I'm doing what I've done for the last 3,723 predicted market collapses over the 30+ years I've been investing.

I'm doing nothing.

Nothing except add money to the market on a regular basis just as I've always done.

Strangely enough, not panicking every time some jittery yahoo predicted a crash has made me a multimillionaire.

I'm pretty sure I'll still be a multimillionaire using the same strategy when is done.
Title: Re: How are y'all preparing for the market collapse that President Trump is creating
Post by: Laserjet3051 on August 25, 2017, 12:44:28 PM
Well, Trump might precipitate a government shutdown (which he has already taken credit for) and cripple the markets and livelihoods of lots of people:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2017/08/25/trump-is-threatening-a-government-shutdown-heres-what-that-looks-like/?hpid=hp_hp-morning-mix_mm-shutdown%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.de1803b674fe

These are uncertain and worrisome times.

ROTFLMAO!
Title: Re: How are y'all preparing for the market collapse that President Trump is creating
Post by: ChpBstrd on August 25, 2017, 01:44:03 PM
Especially with today's valuations, Trump could cause a major correction with any of the following policy moves:

1) Institute tariffs with Mexico, China, etc. The result would be the first major uptick in inflation in many years. The corresponding rise in interest rates would impact the stock market. (As you know, stock valuation is a factor of the risk free rate).

2) Start a shooting war with Iran, North Korea, etc. that would harm consumer or investor confidence.

3) Interfere with the functioning of the Federal Reserve or the mortgage system. This could wipe out investor confidence.

4) Do/tweet things that start a period of serious racial/political riots, insurgency, and unrest that would damage consumer confidence and decrease the value of real estate in cities.

5) Fail to produce a budget for long enough that the US defaults on debt payments and loses its credit rating.

These risks are new and unique because never before has an actual sitting president been foolish enough to endorse such policies. They are mitigated somewhat by his conflicts with his own party in Congress and his tendancy to spend a big chunk of his time golfing and firing syncophants. It is hard to predict which, if any, of these disasters will hit, but there is a good chance that one of them will within the next 7 years of Trump's presidency (yes, count on two terms). So no, I don't think it's market timing or news-driven investing. These are actual, long-term risks that could end many a FIRE dream.

What I'm doing:

1) Staying 100% invested. I've lost more on "sidelines cash" over the years than I did in 2008!

2) Learning about options strategies such as collars and protective puts that I may employ at a relatively low cost that would partially or completely hedge my portfolio. Slowly moving entire stock allocation to SPY for the improved options market compared to Vanguard ETFs.

3) Investing time/energy into my home so it could sell, if necessary. In truth, I need to eventually do this anyway because I think I want to downsize in order to accellerate FIRE. If it becomes a truly SHTF situation, I'll need the extra liquidity and the option to walk away from a smaller amount of home equity - ideally 20% of not much instead of 30-40%  of a lot.

4) Pursuing education and certifications. This may be what keeps one employed after SHTF and it also helps if one decides to emigrate somewhere in the event the US becomes a Turkey or Venezuela like basket case situation. (Note that democratic republics routinely descend into dictatorship or chaos.)

5) Developing a plan to increase my portfolio risk during a transient crash like 2008/2009. When pessimism gets bad, I want to change from my hedged SPY portfolio to a leveraged bullish portfolio - if I can muster the guts to do it this time! I might do so through buying highly leveraged companies, distressed bonds, LEAP call options on SPY, or simply the companies likely to recover the most (leisure and entertainment, tech, highly leveraged firms, takeover targets).

6) Get physically fit. The near future may involve harder physical labor, more walking/biking, an increased importance of being disease resistant, and threats of violence. You don't go into such a scenario flabby, dependent on sugar/caffeine, dependent on meds for preventable conditions, diabetic, addicted to luxury, etc.

7) Renew my passport.

IMO, most ideas espoused by MMM with optimism also make sense in the pessimistic scenario. Throw in some protective moves (like options and high home leverage) and you have a robust survival and FIRE position.
Title: Re: How are y'all preparing for the market collapse that President Trump is creating
Post by: wienerdog on August 25, 2017, 01:46:05 PM
If you want the media to control your portfolio, then you'd be in line with some people who decided to sell everything after Trump was elected - which has proven to be a poor decision so far. Avoid knee jerks reactions. They don't pan out.

If I remember right all the media polls had Hillary winning.  Seems like they can't get anything right.
Title: Re: How are y'all preparing for the market collapse that President Trump is creating
Post by: GuitarStv on August 25, 2017, 02:10:56 PM
If you want the media to control your portfolio, then you'd be in line with some people who decided to sell everything after Trump was elected - which has proven to be a poor decision so far. Avoid knee jerks reactions. They don't pan out.

If I remember right all the media polls had Hillary winning.  Seems like they can't get anything right.

Well . . . she did win the vote.  (Just not the presidency.)
Title: Re: How are y'all preparing for the market collapse that President Trump is creating
Post by: sol on August 25, 2017, 04:42:06 PM
If you want the media to control your portfolio, then you'd be in line with some people who decided to sell everything after Trump was elected - which has proven to be a poor decision so far. Avoid knee jerks reactions. They don't pan out.

If I remember right all the media polls had Hillary winning.  Seems like they can't get anything right.

Well . . . she did win the vote.  (Just not the presidency.)

It's an oft-overlooked point among Trump supporters.  The polls were actually pretty spot on, in terms of the national total.  They just had some of the distributions wrong.

Also of note, while we're belly-aching, is that Trump got basically the same number of votes that Romney and McCain got.  He didn't expand the base.  He didn't bring out any new voters.  He just very effectively suppressed the Democratic vote in a few key electoral college swing states.  That's enough to win in our system, though, even when you get 3 million fewer votes.
Title: Re: How are y'all preparing for the market collapse that President Trump is creating
Post by: en58 on August 25, 2017, 05:22:09 PM
This is why I don't like posts like this its because it becomes more political instead of money talk.

1. Trump Won. Weather you agree with it or not. He won by the rules fair and square.
2. Its a misleading statement as you assume the market will collapse because of Trump. It hasn't, its done the opposite.
3. Its political
4. Hillary lost let it go.
5. The presidency is won based on electoral collage votes not most popular vote (that's like wining 3 out of a 7 game series in baseball and wanting the trophy because you scored more runs).
Title: Re: How are y'all preparing for the market collapse that President Trump is creating
Post by: Mac_MacGyver on August 25, 2017, 05:42:00 PM
This is why I don't like posts like this its because it becomes more political instead of money talk.

There sure have been a lot of people in this wide-ranging thread who feel free to complain about the content here.  Here's a tip for you all:  if you don't like it, stop reading!


The points he made were valid, I think he was referencing the folks who seem to not know how the election is scored. The poster seems more interested in facts than feels.
Title: Re: How are y'all preparing for the market collapse that President Trump is creating
Post by: GenXbiker on August 25, 2017, 05:55:04 PM
This is why I don't like posts like this its because it becomes more political instead of money talk.

1. Trump Won. Weather you agree with it or not. He won by the rules fair and square.
2. Its a misleading statement as you assume the market will collapse because of Trump. It hasn't, its done the opposite.
3. Its political
4. Hillary lost let it go.
5. The presidency is won based on electoral collage votes not most popular vote (that's like wining 3 out of a 7 game series in baseball and wanting the trophy because you scored more runs).

Exactly!  Well said.
Title: Re: How are y'all preparing for the market collapse that President Trump is creating
Post by: Mr. Green on August 25, 2017, 07:34:56 PM
50%? Lol. 2008 was a 50% drop and we're nowhere near that kind of trouble.
Title: Re: How are y'all preparing for the market collapse that President Trump is creating
Post by: kenaces on August 25, 2017, 07:36:56 PM
Will you just stay the course?

I'm FI but haven't RE'd yet but a 50% correction would guarantee more days / years at the office.  Are you liquidating shares while you can?

Even if his administrations policies don't cause collapse, the media is sounding the alarm 24/7 which causes people to be irrational.

- NO ONE knows the future

- don't let political bias ever drive investment decisions

I was listening to investing podcast last week where they were talking about a study that showed Dems were overly optimistic when they had president in office and overly pessimistic when they didn't hold the white house.  And the converse was was also true of course.
Title: Re: How are y'all preparing for the market collapse that President Trump is creating
Post by: theolympians on August 26, 2017, 10:47:26 AM
Thank you en58!

 I never worry too much about the news. It seems mostly to be click bait. For the media the sky is always falling.


Title: Re: How are y'all preparing for the market collapse that President Trump is creating
Post by: MaaS on August 27, 2017, 06:31:03 PM
Your political bias is causing you to act financially irrational.

It might be time to read JLCollins' stock series again, or perhaps turn off the news.

+1

Title: Re: How are y'all preparing for the market collapse that President Trump is creating
Post by: Mighty-Dollar on August 27, 2017, 11:31:31 PM
How are y'all preparing for the market collapse that President Trump is creating
Is this Marc Cuban? Don Lemon? The little boy who cried wolf?
Title: Re: How are y'all preparing for the market collapse that President Trump is creating
Post by: sol on August 27, 2017, 11:52:15 PM
How are y'all preparing for the market collapse that President Trump is creating
Is this Marc Cuban? Don Lemon? The little boy who cried wolf?

How many of those people believe that the US President has the power to create anything market-related?  Jitters, maybe.  But probably not a massive asset bubble that would precipitate a "collapse".

Congress, sure.  The Fed, probably.  But the President?  His power over the economy has always been pretty limited.
Title: Re: How are y'all preparing for the market collapse that President Trump is creating
Post by: talltexan on August 28, 2017, 06:42:24 AM
How are y'all preparing for the market collapse that President Trump is creating
Is this Marc Cuban? Don Lemon? The little boy who cried wolf?

How many of those people believe that the US President has the power to create anything market-related?  Jitters, maybe.  But probably not a massive asset bubble that would precipitate a "collapse".

Congress, sure.  The Fed, probably.  But the President?  His power over the economy has always been pretty limited.

Janet Yellen's term as Fed Chair ends this January. Trump has a chance to significantly alter the Fed based on whom he selects to be her replacement. It could be a Tillerson-type appointment (unconventional, but qualified), a Gorsuch-type appointment (meant to please one particular stakeholder group, perhaps Wall Street), or a Perry-type appointment (Frankly, I think Perry is more qualified for his boss's job than his boss is, but nuclear energy expert he ain't).
Title: Re: How are y'all preparing for the market collapse that President Trump is creating
Post by: PDXTabs on August 28, 2017, 08:49:17 AM
Congress, sure.  The Fed, probably.  But the President?  His power over the economy has always been pretty limited.

In addition to what talltexan wrote, the President also has authority to unilateral impose tariffs. It just hasn't happened in a long time. http://money.cnn.com/2017/01/23/news/economy/trump-tariff-power/index.html (http://money.cnn.com/2017/01/23/news/economy/trump-tariff-power/index.html)
Title: Re: How are y'all preparing for the market collapse that President Trump is creating
Post by: Drifterrider on August 28, 2017, 09:48:51 AM
5) Fail to produce a budget for long enough that the US defaults on debt payments and loses its credit rating.

Presidents don't produce budgets:  the Congress does.  The president only submits his budget request to the congress for their consideration.
Title: Re: How are y'all preparing for the market collapse that President Trump is creating
Post by: PDXTabs on August 28, 2017, 11:04:55 PM
5) Fail to produce a budget for long enough that the US defaults on debt payments and loses its credit rating.

Presidents don't produce budgets:  the Congress does.  The president only submits his budget request to the congress for their consideration.

You are entirely correct. Of course, the president does have veto power for budgets.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2017/08/23/trump-says-hell-close-down-federal-government-to-get-border-wall-money-from-congress.html (http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2017/08/23/trump-says-hell-close-down-federal-government-to-get-border-wall-money-from-congress.html)
Title: Re: How are y'all preparing for the market collapse that President Trump is creating
Post by: Radagast on August 28, 2017, 11:30:42 PM
Are you feeling an emotion? Are you making an investing decision because of it? Bad choice.
Title: Re: How are y'all preparing for the market collapse that President Trump is creating
Post by: mjr on August 29, 2017, 03:49:39 AM
Trump Derangement Syndrome is rampant even here in Australia.  Even some Murdoch publications exhibit symptoms, while Fairfax and the Guardian have a terminal case.  I can only imagine how bad it must be in the US.
Title: Re: How are y'all preparing for the market collapse that President Trump is creating
Post by: GenXbiker on August 29, 2017, 04:14:31 AM
I can only imagine how bad it must be in the US.

It's not bad at all.  I'm staying invested and riding the Trump stock market climb to prosperity.
Title: Re: How are y'all preparing for the market collapse that President Trump is creating
Post by: I'm a red panda on August 29, 2017, 06:22:22 AM
5) Fail to produce a budget for long enough that the US defaults on debt payments and loses its credit rating.

Presidents don't produce budgets:  the Congress does.  The president only submits his budget request to the congress for their consideration.

You are entirely correct. Of course, the president does have veto power for budgets.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2017/08/23/trump-says-hell-close-down-federal-government-to-get-border-wall-money-from-congress.html (http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2017/08/23/trump-says-hell-close-down-federal-government-to-get-border-wall-money-from-congress.html)

And Congress has a power to override a veto. 
Title: Re: How are y'all preparing for the market collapse that President Trump is creating
Post by: DarkandStormy on August 29, 2017, 07:22:16 AM
I can only imagine how bad it must be in the US.

It's not bad at all.  I'm staying invested and riding the Trump stock market climb to prosperity.

Since March 1st (~6 months), here are how the major U.S. indexes have fared:

S&P500 - 2.02%
DJIA - 3.27%
NASDAQ - 6.42%
Russell 3000 - 1.54%
Russell 2000 - (2.22%)
Russell 1000 - 1.85%

Unless you are heavily weighted in tech stocks/NASDAQ, the "Trump Bump" has been over for awhile.

Trump has passed little to no legislation impacting the economy.  The supposed tax reform/tax cuts are now being pushed off until 2018 with the impending debt ceiling crisis coming in about a month and Congress is still in recess.
Title: Re: How are y'all preparing for the market collapse that President Trump is creating
Post by: talltexan on August 29, 2017, 07:24:07 AM
About overriding the Presidential veto: it would be an interesting choice for Democrats.

Imagine Congress has passed a debt ceiling increase, with defunding Planned Parenthood attached to it. POTUS vetoes it because it doesn't fund the wall.

Would Democrats step in to over-ride that veto, obliterating the wall as well as PP?
Title: Re: How are y'all preparing for the market collapse that President Trump is creating
Post by: ChpBstrd on August 29, 2017, 12:12:25 PM
About overriding the Presidential veto: it would be an interesting choice for Democrats.

Imagine Congress has passed a debt ceiling increase, with defunding Planned Parenthood attached to it. POTUS vetoes it because it doesn't fund the wall.

Would Democrats step in to over-ride that veto, obliterating the wall as well as PP?

Doubt it. They would point out that Republicans control all 3 branches of the federal government, let the debt default happen by scattering their votes, and repeat again and again that the Republican party cannot govern and causes economic meltdowns. All most voters know is so-and-so got elected and then I lost my job. It would be cynical but it would work. In today's poisonous partisan environment, no one would be eager to rescue the other party from a mistake.
Title: Re: How are y'all preparing for the market collapse that President Trump is creating
Post by: Eric on August 29, 2017, 12:44:44 PM
Are you feeling an emotion? Are you making an investing decision because of it? Bad choice.

Very well put.
Title: Re: How are y'all preparing for the market collapse that President Trump is creating
Post by: jim555 on August 29, 2017, 03:32:22 PM
Bull markets climb a wall of worry, I guess we go to the moon!
Title: Re: How are y'all preparing for the market collapse that President Trump is creating
Post by: wienerdog on August 29, 2017, 03:42:33 PM
HeHillary just very effectively suppressed the Democratic vote in a few key electoral college swing states.  That's enough to win in our system, though, even when you get 3 million fewer votes.

#FixedIt  Many Bernie voters voted for Trump because of what the DNC and Hillary did.  I wouldn't give Trump that much credit.  Run a worse jackass against a jackass and the jackass always wins.
Title: Re: How are y'all preparing for the market collapse that President Trump is creating
Post by: talltexan on August 30, 2017, 09:15:46 AM
What companies would have higher market Caps with President Sanders? Please be as specific as you can.
Title: Re: How are y'all preparing for the market collapse that President Trump is creating
Post by: sol on August 30, 2017, 10:12:38 AM
What companies would have higher market Caps with President Sanders? Please be as specific as you can.

I'm not so sure about higher, but Trump Enterprises would definitely be lower.
Title: Re: How are y'all preparing for the market collapse that President Trump is creating
Post by: ChpBstrd on August 30, 2017, 12:24:25 PM
I think I and few people who said "nothing" are the only people who answered the OP's question about investments. Any other answers besides "nothing"?

Update: My hedging strategy is on hold. In the past few semi-volatile days the cost of SPY put options has skyrocketed. For 6% a year, you can be guaranteed to lose no more than 6% a year! Had I been more decisive instead of slowly averaging in, my hedge would be sitting on significant paper profits of around 20% now, even as the SPY has zig zagged back to where we started. Oh well. Hopefully I didn't miss the boat. I'll wait for better pricing.
Title: Re: How are y'all preparing for the market collapse that President Trump is creating
Post by: WhiteTrashCash on August 30, 2017, 12:27:36 PM
My typical pattern is to wait for Trump to say something stupid, then buy when the market temporarily dips before it becomes clear that Trump isn't going to get what he wants. Lately, though, the market hasn't even been responding at all to some things that I was sure would make a difference. For example, North Korea shot a missile over Japan and the markets responded by increasing in value. Wait, what?

I would guess that there are so many of us buying and holding that the market isn't as volatile as it used to be.
Title: Re: How are y'all preparing for the market collapse that President Trump is creating
Post by: wienerdog on August 30, 2017, 12:45:16 PM
What companies would have higher market Caps with President Sanders? Please be as specific as you can.

Universities and healthcare.
Title: Re: How are y'all preparing for the market collapse that President Trump is creating
Post by: trollwithamustache on August 30, 2017, 12:51:29 PM

I would guess that there are so many of us buying and holding that the market isn't as volatile as it used to be.

thank you sir for savings us from the political dredging. Why has market volatility fundamentally changed? Or is it just (mis?)priced differently at least as the VIX tells us.  The overall ownerships of stocks is still vastly held by professional managers and not individuals. So, when a stock price changes, your passive index fund may have to rebalance to add or subtract that stock and that can start driving volume and volatility even though you are buying and holding your financial instrument.

This can be a day trading strategy for stocks in some sectors where the etf volumes traded are much higher than the volumes in the underlying or at least some of the underlying.

We could also stick a toe back into political waters and ask if low interest rates discourage cash savings and are encouraging risk taking  in the market, thereby artificially lowering VIX.
 
Volatility as its currently priced is at historical lows, so its very likely it will not go to even more historic lows but go back up. FWIW I contemplated but have not bought long dated VIX options.
Title: Re: How are y'all preparing for the market collapse that President Trump is creating
Post by: talltexan on August 30, 2017, 12:58:12 PM
What companies would have higher market Caps with President Sanders? Please be as specific as you can.

Universities and healthcare.

Do you mean For-Profit universities?

Health Care is reasonable, as it seems as though Trump is trying to seem erratic about making Health Insurers whole for their losses in the Health.Gov exchanges.
Title: Re: How are y'all preparing for the market collapse that President Trump is creating
Post by: NoStacheOhio on August 30, 2017, 01:05:02 PM
So, when a stock price changes, your passive index fund may have to rebalance to add or subtract that stock and that can start driving volume and volatility even though you are buying and holding your financial instrument.

This isn't how index funds work
Title: Re: How are y'all preparing for the market collapse that President Trump is creating
Post by: OurTown on August 30, 2017, 01:49:11 PM
And, to pull the thread back to the topic, the market will keep right on truckin after Trump is escorted from the White House.  I'm not sure how the market will do after we nuke Pyongyang, but life is full of little uncertainties.   
Title: Re: How are y'all preparing for the market collapse that President Trump is creating
Post by: WhiteTrashCash on August 30, 2017, 02:03:55 PM
And, to pull the thread back to the topic, the market will keep right on truckin after Trump is escorted from the White House.  I'm not sure how the market will do after we nuke Pyongyang, but life is full of little uncertainties.

I think a lot of people are just ignoring the news entirely at the moment when it comes to their investments, because -- let's face it -- we don't have any power over any of that stuff. Just what we do with our money. For the second time in sixteen years, the person who got fewer votes from the American people in the Presidential election won anyway. The Party that got fewer votes controls both houses of Congress and the Supreme Court. A few corporations control all the media and are now expanding their influence to controlling who can even use the internet. Meanwhile, other corporations are taking advantage of corrupt foreign governments and sweetheart trade deals to get cheap labor and raw materials/finished products without having to worry about pesky human rights legislation or environmental controls that will protect people from being poisoned to death. None of us can do a damn thing about any of this.

I've pretty much thrown my hands up at this point and I'm out. I'm going to stick to my own business and do what's necessary to be successful under these circumstances. I'm just going to keep pouring money into my investments and ignore all the idiocy. Keep on stachin' with your Vanguard funds, my friends, and to Hell with everything.
Title: Re: How are y'all preparing for the market collapse that President Trump is creating
Post by: trollwithamustache on August 30, 2017, 04:54:30 PM


This isn't how index funds work
[/quote]

This isn't investors rebalancing their portfolios between stocks and bonds, this is about what is going on "under the hood" at various EFTs or mutual funds. Your S&P 500 ETF and vanguard total market that likely hold the bulk of this forum's wealth do not rebalance. However a lot of funds to rebalance in various ways.

http://www.etf.com/sections/blog/rebalancing-smart-beta-etfs-often-overlooked?nopaging=1

Title: Re: How are y'all preparing for the market collapse that President Trump is creating
Post by: PDXTabs on August 30, 2017, 11:50:16 PM
What companies would have higher market Caps with President Sanders? Please be as specific as you can.

If he had managed to increase wages for the working and middle class? Most of them.

Between 1946-1980 income for the bottom 20% increased 109%. Between 1980-2014 it decreased 25%.
http://gabriel-zucman.eu/files/PSZ2017.pdf (http://gabriel-zucman.eu/files/PSZ2017.pdf)
Title: Re: How are y'all preparing for the market collapse that President Trump is creating
Post by: NoStacheOhio on August 31, 2017, 06:10:23 AM

This isn't investors rebalancing their portfolios between stocks and bonds, this is about what is going on "under the hood" at various EFTs or mutual funds. Your S&P 500 ETF and vanguard total market that likely hold the bulk of this forum's wealth do not rebalance. However a lot of funds to rebalance in various ways.

http://www.etf.com/sections/blog/rebalancing-smart-beta-etfs-often-overlooked?nopaging=1

So in response to my statement that you misunderstand how index funds work, you link to an article about active funds.

I understood you the first time. That's still not how index funds work. VTSAX has 4% turnover.
Title: Re: How are y'all preparing for the market collapse that President Trump is creating
Post by: talltexan on August 31, 2017, 07:52:00 AM
And, to pull the thread back to the topic, the market will keep right on truckin after Trump is escorted from the White House.  I'm not sure how the market will do after we nuke Pyongyang, but life is full of little uncertainties.

If Trump leaves office in a Watergate-style scandal, let's look at how the market did in 1974 (badly).

The market has done badly in plenty of other years, too, so it wasn't necessarily Watergate that was the problem.
Title: Re: How are y'all preparing for the market collapse that President Trump is creating
Post by: trollwithamustache on August 31, 2017, 08:26:29 AM

This isn't investors rebalancing their portfolios between stocks and bonds, this is about what is going on "under the hood" at various EFTs or mutual funds. Your S&P 500 ETF and vanguard total market that likely hold the bulk of this forum's wealth do not rebalance. However a lot of funds to rebalance in various ways.

http://www.etf.com/sections/blog/rebalancing-smart-beta-etfs-often-overlooked?nopaging=1

So in response to my statement that you misunderstand how index funds work, you link to an article about active funds.

I understood you the first time. That's still not how index funds work. VTSAX has 4% turnover.

There is a lot of money in things called indexes that work in different ways, often by dollar values. And those ways can drive volatility far more than the 4% VTSAX has to do for regular inflow/outflow and corporate actions rebalancing.  There is a lot of money in sector indexes that rebalance in ways one may think qualifies as Active. Don't worry, their paperwork with the SEC is all in order...

A combination of automatic rebalancing and trend following algorithms are how several flash crashes have been driven.

To be clear this is meant to discuss volatility, not to question the investment strategy of VTSAX set it and forget it.
Title: Re: How are y'all preparing for the market collapse that President Trump is creating
Post by: shotgunwilly on August 31, 2017, 08:41:18 AM
Additionally, if you think this a just a big nothingburger, why would
  • Trump[1]
  • Sessions[2]
  • Ivanka[3]
  • Jared[4]
  • Donald Jr[5]
  • Pence[6]
  • Trumps lawyer[7]
  • Trumps former campaign manager[8]
ALL hire private outside legal counsel regarding the Russia investigation? I'm sure I've missed some as well.

Just wanted to give you the heads up as to soften the blow to your ego and your world view. Trump and his administration are in deep shit.

Umm... because that's what you do when allegations against you rear their head.