Author Topic: Hot Button Issues, Division, and investing  (Read 667 times)

talltexan

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Hot Button Issues, Division, and investing
« on: July 18, 2019, 01:19:36 PM »
  • Society feels pretty divided right now
  • The people in power are not equipped and/or interested in addressing these divisions
  • We somehow have to predict the future well enough to be effective investors
  • The trajectory is toward a world with greater inequality, more fragmented media environment
  • The inequality of outcome is prompting more parents to invest heavily in their children, attempting to make them more competitive for college and early career placements

Therefore, invest in:

Spoiler: show
1. Status-based brands, i.e. Apple; 2. For-profit education; 3. Security; 4. media companies


Reactions?


bbates728

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Re: Hot Button Issues, Division, and investing
« Reply #1 on: July 18, 2019, 01:42:06 PM »
Ehh… seems like a lot of work for very little upside expectations. Invest in Apple? What, like everyone else? Wouldn't everyone else buying Apple as well at this point make the potential gains disappear? Good luck with all that research and stock-picking. I am gonna hang out with the whole market. Cheers.

robartsd

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Re: Hot Button Issues, Division, and investing
« Reply #2 on: July 18, 2019, 01:59:18 PM »
The market already knows all of this and has priced it in.

Spoiler: show

1. Status based brands come and go.
4. How does a more fragmented media environment mean the sector will capture more gains than the overall market?

Radagast

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Re: Hot Button Issues, Division, and investing
« Reply #3 on: July 18, 2019, 09:14:03 PM »
Are these actual trends that will affect the future or personal subjective opinions regarding the past three years? Why didn’t you make this prediction a decade ago? If you used this reasoning to make predictions every year, what would your success rate have been ten years later? Looks to me like you are pretty terrible at this.

harvestbook

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Re: Hot Button Issues, Division, and investing
« Reply #4 on: July 19, 2019, 05:49:59 AM »
The real trajectory is the human condition improving over time and the stock market growing exponentially.

But nothing is guaranteed except the eventual collapse of the universe.

Blueberries

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Re: Hot Button Issues, Division, and investing
« Reply #5 on: July 19, 2019, 08:41:26 AM »
You're not far off on the current top industries in the market, minus media, as I don't know where it stands without looking into it.  Many of the top stocks in the two industries ("status brands" isn't an industry, but the concept you're talking about isn't far off, i.e. LULU, SBUX, AAPL) are at or near all time highs.  I wouldn't invest in any of them based on that information alone, especially as many have been running for a while. 



talltexan

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Re: Hot Button Issues, Division, and investing
« Reply #6 on: July 19, 2019, 12:53:16 PM »
Are these actual trends that will affect the future or personal subjective opinions regarding the past three years? Why didn’t you make this prediction a decade ago? If you used this reasoning to make predictions every year, what would your success rate have been ten years later? Looks to me like you are pretty terrible at this.

10 years ago, we were in the midst of the worst economic downturn since my grandmother was a child. Luxury brands were doing their best to be low-key, and the people who had wealth were trying to keep under the radar because they were afraid that a (unified) Democratic government would tax it from them via taxes.

But you're correct that the seeds of this trend toward inequality had already been sown, as the investment losses they experienced meant that (on paper) the wealthy were losing ground relative to the impoverished.

I cannot say I had this amount of clarity with the predictions I was making then. It doesn't feel as though I'm being specific enough now to lay out an actionable investment strategy.