Author Topic: Hilarious "reasons" for market movement  (Read 14849 times)

Eric

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Hilarious "reasons" for market movement
« on: October 22, 2014, 03:46:13 PM »
I generally follow the market's movement throughout the day.  I just have Google Finance up in a browser tab, and click on it from time to time.  It's usually pretty uneventful (except for the Flash Crash), but the best part is at the end of the day when they post an article explaining why the market moved the way it did for that one day.  It always strikes me as an exercise that would make even a tarot card reader cringe, but at least there's some hindsight involved.  However, today's headline is probably the dumbest I've seen.

"Wall St. ends lower after shooting at Canadian parliament"

Exactly!  I sold off my US stocks because there was a shooting near another country's governmental buildings.  Makes sense if you don't think about it.


(Note, I'm sorry the soldier was killed.  It's terrible and tragic.  This is only an observation on the stock market movement "reason")


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hodedofome

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Re: Hilarious "reasons" for market movement
« Reply #2 on: October 22, 2014, 03:54:41 PM »
People always want to know why something happens, and the financial news makes it seem like they have the answer. But nobody really knows. Stocks could be down because a giant fund decided to liquidate in a hurry, but since nobody but a few know about it, the newspapers gotta make something up.

mpg350

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Re: Hilarious "reasons" for market movement
« Reply #3 on: October 22, 2014, 05:05:04 PM »
Far from the dumbest, I have seen some really stupid ones.

Canada has been attacked twice by radicals in two days….it will eventually happen here I am afraid.

nereo

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Re: Hilarious "reasons" for market movement
« Reply #4 on: October 22, 2014, 05:13:59 PM »
"Dow falls 2% today because, well, that's just what it does sometimes."

I'm still waiting to see that completely true headline.

trailrated

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Re: Hilarious "reasons" for market movement
« Reply #5 on: October 22, 2014, 05:17:38 PM »

wtjbatman

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Re: Hilarious "reasons" for market movement
« Reply #6 on: October 22, 2014, 05:26:10 PM »
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post_hoc_ergo_propter_hoc

"Post hoc ergo propter hoc is subtly different from the fallacy cum hoc ergo propter hoc."

Latin Gone Wild up here in this thread.

livetogive

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Re: Hilarious "reasons" for market movement
« Reply #7 on: October 22, 2014, 06:24:34 PM »
I used to have to write that kind of one line crap for marketing when I worked at a bank.  It's usually some analyst somewhere who's just desperate to go home but is required to write something reasonably intelligent sounding before they can.

What took me a long time to figure out is it doesn't matter if it's correct as long as it sounds good.

VirginiaBob

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Re: Hilarious "reasons" for market movement
« Reply #8 on: October 22, 2014, 06:33:36 PM »
I unknowingly bought a stock for a company that happens to have developed an Ebola vaccine. I bought their stock for other reasons a while ago and didn't even know they were in Ebola vaccine business.  Since the Ebola stuff has been in the news, the stock has slightly more than doubled.  When I hear in the news that someone gets Ebola or dies from it, I'm secretly doing a quiet fist pump.  Yes, I am evil.

hodedofome

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Hilarious "reasons" for market movement
« Reply #9 on: October 22, 2014, 09:16:55 PM »
Virginia if i was you I'd sell the news and cash in on that stock, but I don't know your timeframe.

An honest headline should say 'stocks are up today because there were more buyers than sellers.'

That's the only fact we can truly know...supply and demand rules all.

VirginiaBob

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Re: Hilarious "reasons" for market movement
« Reply #10 on: October 22, 2014, 09:20:57 PM »
Virginia if i was you I'd sell the news and cash in on that stock, but I don't know your timeframe.

An honest headline should say 'stocks are up today because there were more buyers than sellers.'

That's the only fact we can truly know...supply and demand rules all.


I'm thinking I'll sell half to get back slightly more than my original investment.  Then the remaining shares will essentially be free.

hodedofome

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Re: Hilarious "reasons" for market movement
« Reply #11 on: October 22, 2014, 09:23:00 PM »
Good plan. I like it.

trailrated

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Re: Hilarious "reasons" for market movement
« Reply #12 on: October 23, 2014, 09:16:41 AM »
Courtesy of the Motley fool, posted it earlier in the thread but I know clicking a link is too much to ask sometimes.

Quote
NEW YORK -- Stocks gained momentum on Monday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing up 48 points, reversing losses from last week's decline.

Experts hailed both moves as a "remarkable, textbook example of pure statistical chance," chalking up Monday's gains to a couple random marginal buyers being slightly more motivated than a few random marginal sellers.

"Imagine you pick 1 million random people from around the world every day," said Toby McDade, chief investment officer of Momentum Fee Capital Management. "Some days, 51% would be in a good mood, 49% in a bad mood. The next day maybe it's the opposite. Other days, random chance could mean 8% of people are really pissed off for no real reason. This is basically what the market is on a day-to-day basis," he said.

Asked what his clients thought of this view, Mr. McDade laughed. "Oh my God, you think I could tell my clients that? How could I justify my salary?" Clients were told Monday's gain was caused by a mix of reversing geopolitical instability, shifting uncertainty patterns, a risk-on atmosphere, and a perfect storm of beta meeting sigma. None knew what those words meant.

American corporations earned $4.62 billion of net income on Monday. Financial advisors, analysts, and brokers, collected $630 million in fees. No media outlet reported these figures, despite being the two most important numbers necessary to understanding investing.

A report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed the economy added 209,000 jobs last month. An economist from a right-leaning think tank called the report disappointing. Another at a left-leaning organization called it encouraging. Neither has a reputable track record. Both yelled. The jobs report has a margin of error of plus or minus 100,000, and will be revised seven times in the coming years. No one whose outlook was swayed by the report said they care about these details.

Marc Faber appeared on TV predicting a 20% stock market crash within the next six months, repeating a call he has made bi-weekly since the Carter administration. Another pundit explained that his last failed prediction would have been right if only he hadn't been so wrong. Executives of financial TV networks met to discuss why ratings are at decade lows.

The yield on 10-year Treasury bonds fell from 2.42% to 2.38%. Nobody knows why.

An FDIC report showed banks increased lending last quarter. Analysts called this a new bubble created by the Fed, though it's what any rational person would expect to see happening during a recovery after a deep recession.

In Nevada, 52-year-old Ronald Palmer put his life savings into gold after spending 10 minutes reading something on Google about inflation written by a guy who learned about inflation by spending 10 minutes on Google.

Nineteen-year-old Travis Baker spent the afternoon day-trading penny stocks because his prefrontal cortex isn't yet fully developed and he couldn't recognize risk-reward trade-offs if they hit him in the face.

An army of bloggers reported from their parents' basements that Apple CEO Tim Cook doesn't understand technology. Reached out to for comment, Cook giggled, shook his head, and said one of his main regrets in life is not taking the advice of unemployed anonymous bloggers.

Long-term investors finished Monday one day closer to their goals.

Analysts expect the news to be no different tomorrow. 

DoubleDown

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Re: Hilarious "reasons" for market movement
« Reply #13 on: October 23, 2014, 10:02:52 AM »
Good one Eric! I've noticed the same thing too and always thought it sounded ridiculous. In fact, just before I visited the forum right now and saw your thread, I saw this on the Money/Finance section on MSN: "Stocks Rally After 3M, Caterpillar Profits Beat Estimates; Dow Up 250" (it's probably still there right now since it was there just 10 mins. ago).

Really, two companies had decent earnings and it caused the DJIA and the entire S&P 500 to go up 1.7%???

KS

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Re: Hilarious "reasons" for market movement
« Reply #14 on: October 23, 2014, 10:19:03 AM »
Glad I'm not the only one who reads those headlines for entertainment! I figure there's no harm in looking at it since all my investing is on autopilot so I'm not changing anything based on what I see, and it's so fun to see what they come up with to shout about that day. (I especially enjoy the ones where one day it's "stocks at lowest level since March 2014" then the next day they pick another arbitrary historical point and stocks are at the highest level since then, even when the market hardly moves.) The Motley Fool article totally hits it on the head. :)

nereo

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Re: Hilarious "reasons" for market movement
« Reply #15 on: October 23, 2014, 11:23:21 AM »
An honest headline should say 'stocks are up today because there were more buyers than sellers.'


No, no, NO!  I'm sorry, but that is just not correct.  The number of buyers and sellers is irrelevant.  A wealthy investor can buy a million shares from one million individuals, or vice versa.  The number of shares sold must equal the number of shares bought.  It's a subtle but important distinction.

What determines whether a stock price goes up is whether the last seller was able to sell that share for more or less money than previous shares. It always starts with sellers.  Suppose stock XYZ was worth $100 yesterday.  If a seller can find a buyer who is willing to purchase that stock for more than $100 then the stock goes up.  If not, it goes down until the seller finds a buyer willing to pay that price.  With automated markets this all happens hundreds of times a second, but that is the core of what is happening.


Kaspian

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Re: Hilarious "reasons" for market movement
« Reply #16 on: October 23, 2014, 12:11:45 PM »
You may not believe this but on Reuters I have seen the exact same reason given for a decline in the morning as for a rise in the afternoon.  ...And it was the exact same article verbatim!  They just changed the word "Declines" to "Rises" in the headline.  WTF?

Eric

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Re: Hilarious "reasons" for market movement
« Reply #17 on: October 23, 2014, 12:44:19 PM »
You may not believe this but on Reuters I have seen the exact same reason given for a decline in the morning as for a rise in the afternoon.  ...And it was the exact same article verbatim!  They just changed the word "Declines" to "Rises" in the headline.  WTF?

I believe it.  I wish I would've caught that one.  That sounds hilarious.

livetogive

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Re: Hilarious "reasons" for market movement
« Reply #18 on: October 23, 2014, 01:43:05 PM »
An honest headline should say 'stocks are up today because there were more buyers than sellers.'


No, no, NO!  I'm sorry, but that is just not correct.  The number of buyers and sellers is irrelevant.  A wealthy investor can buy a million shares from one million individuals, or vice versa.  The number of shares sold must equal the number of shares bought.  It's a subtle but important distinction.

What determines whether a stock price goes up is whether the last seller was able to sell that share for more or less money than previous shares. It always starts with sellers.  Suppose stock XYZ was worth $100 yesterday.  If a seller can find a buyer who is willing to purchase that stock for more than $100 then the stock goes up.  If not, it goes down until the seller finds a buyer willing to pay that price.  With automated markets this all happens hundreds of times a second, but that is the core of what is happening.

Yes. Or depending on how efficient you think the market is...

All available information pertaining to the long term cash flows of these companies indicated their expected value is slightly higher than what all available information pointed to yesterday.

Eric

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Re: Hilarious "reasons" for market movement
« Reply #19 on: October 23, 2014, 03:44:21 PM »
Another great one today:

"Stocks end higher, Ebola scare trims gains"

Quote
The news flash that a health care worker, who has returned recently from one of the three countries in West Africa where the Ebola epidemic is rampant, was being tested Thursday for the virus at a New York city hospital, was cited as a reason why the Dow's gains were trimmed by about 85 points late in the trading session.

Hahahahahaha, oh yes, of course, there was a large sell off because a single doctor in NYC is now being monitored for Ebola.  Where do they come up with these?

dragoncar

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Re: Hilarious "reasons" for market movement
« Reply #20 on: October 23, 2014, 06:46:42 PM »
I know it's ridiculous but sometimes there really is a reason and I want to know it.  Oh, the fed is unexpectedly raising interest rates?  That's going to cause a sell off.  But some days I guess there's no real reason

iris lily

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Re: Hilarious "reasons" for market movement
« Reply #21 on: October 23, 2014, 07:18:14 PM »
There's a lot of funny stuff in this thread! Kudos to all of you! The Motley Fool piece was especially worthwhile.

Beric01

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Re: Hilarious "reasons" for market movement
« Reply #22 on: October 23, 2014, 07:25:15 PM »
I know it's ridiculous but sometimes there really is a reason and I want to know it.  Oh, the fed is unexpectedly raising interest rates?  That's going to cause a sell off.  But some days I guess there's no real reason

Even when the fed raises interest rates, do you really *know* what is going on in the minds of each and every investor?

That's what makes these articles so hilarious - they state the cause for a rise or fall in the market without providing any proof that the two are actually connected. Unless you survey investors (properly sampled) on their thoughts behind their purchase or sale price there is really no basis for a "cause".

johnhenry

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Re: Hilarious "reasons" for market movement
« Reply #23 on: October 24, 2014, 09:31:37 AM »
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post_hoc_ergo_propter_hoc

"Post hoc ergo propter hoc is subtly different from the fallacy cum hoc ergo propter hoc."

Latin Gone Wild up here in this thread.

Quote
cum hoc ergo propter hoc

Latin for "premature ejaculation" was my first interpretation. I guess I need to brush up.

hodedofome

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Re: Hilarious "reasons" for market movement
« Reply #24 on: October 24, 2014, 11:06:44 AM »
An honest headline should say 'stocks are up today because there were more buyers than sellers.'


No, no, NO!  I'm sorry, but that is just not correct.  The number of buyers and sellers is irrelevant.  A wealthy investor can buy a million shares from one million individuals, or vice versa.  The number of shares sold must equal the number of shares bought.  It's a subtle but important distinction.

What determines whether a stock price goes up is whether the last seller was able to sell that share for more or less money than previous shares. It always starts with sellers.  Suppose stock XYZ was worth $100 yesterday.  If a seller can find a buyer who is willing to purchase that stock for more than $100 then the stock goes up.  If not, it goes down until the seller finds a buyer willing to pay that price.  With automated markets this all happens hundreds of times a second, but that is the core of what is happening.

Sure, I understand that. But saying it the way I did is simpler and easier understood for most people :)

gimp

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Re: Hilarious "reasons" for market movement
« Reply #25 on: October 24, 2014, 11:58:32 AM »
Good one Eric! I've noticed the same thing too and always thought it sounded ridiculous. In fact, just before I visited the forum right now and saw your thread, I saw this on the Money/Finance section on MSN: "Stocks Rally After 3M, Caterpillar Profits Beat Estimates; Dow Up 250" (it's probably still there right now since it was there just 10 mins. ago).

Really, two companies had decent earnings and it caused the DJIA and the entire S&P 500 to go up 1.7%???

Shockingly though, this is decently accurate. The dow only has 30 or so companies, and 3M and Caterpillar are two of them. If both of them report excellent blah blah, they have a fairly large effect on the dow. That in turn makes a bunch of morons / algorithms exploiting morons to say "Shit going up? up? up! UP! BUY! BUY!" and then the dow goes up even more. And the dow is a decent proxy for the rest of the market - it mirrors it, to a large extent, so it's hardly surprising to see the rest go up too.

But wait, it's not morons all the way up. People will look at 3M and Cat to see why they're doing well. Is it because there's large demand for their products? Solid hiring, not too much turnover impacting labor costs? Is it that they're getting higher prices but paying less for materials? I don't know. But any of those and a million other reasons besides might be "evidence that similar companies should do well" or "evidence the economy is doing well" or whatever. Large demand for cat products means lots of heavy industry is gearing up, which means construction for business and homes, which means more home sales, which means more purchases of home building materials, and it means more businesses are being built / expanded, so they're doing well, and it means more people are buying homes, so they're doing well, and yada yada yada yada yada ...

Shit is super complicated and people look for pointers, hints, and proxies. How well new homes are being built and sold is a decent proxy for a whole slew of things. Naturally, how well heavy machinery that is used for all sorts of construction, mining, and other industry sells is a decent proxy for a whole slew of things.

Which is of course "journalists" get away with such bullshit headlines sometimes. Because sometimes they sound bullshit but are actually decent reasons.

Another example: some shit happens (shootings, ebola) and now uncertainty and fear goes up. That means market swings, generally, in some direction. Stocks down? Ebola. Stocks up? Ebola vaccines. Fuck it, who knows.

DoubleDown

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Re: Hilarious "reasons" for market movement
« Reply #26 on: October 24, 2014, 01:12:46 PM »
Good one Eric! I've noticed the same thing too and always thought it sounded ridiculous. In fact, just before I visited the forum right now and saw your thread, I saw this on the Money/Finance section on MSN: "Stocks Rally After 3M, Caterpillar Profits Beat Estimates; Dow Up 250" (it's probably still there right now since it was there just 10 mins. ago).

Really, two companies had decent earnings and it caused the DJIA and the entire S&P 500 to go up 1.7%???

Shockingly though, this is decently accurate. The dow only has 30 or so companies, and 3M and Caterpillar are two of them. If both of them report excellent blah blah, they have a fairly large effect on the dow. That in turn makes a bunch of morons / algorithms exploiting morons to say "Shit going up? up? up! UP! BUY! BUY!" and then the dow goes up even more. And the dow is a decent proxy for the rest of the market - it mirrors it, to a large extent, so it's hardly surprising to see the rest go up too.


Hmmm, I'm not so sure two company earnings reports would have such a profound effect on their own, even though they're large companies. But I have no proof otherwise, so who knows (which is the last thing you said anyhow!).

Beric01

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Re: Hilarious "reasons" for market movement
« Reply #27 on: October 24, 2014, 01:24:46 PM »
Good one Eric! I've noticed the same thing too and always thought it sounded ridiculous. In fact, just before I visited the forum right now and saw your thread, I saw this on the Money/Finance section on MSN: "Stocks Rally After 3M, Caterpillar Profits Beat Estimates; Dow Up 250" (it's probably still there right now since it was there just 10 mins. ago).

Really, two companies had decent earnings and it caused the DJIA and the entire S&P 500 to go up 1.7%???

Shockingly though, this is decently accurate. The dow only has 30 or so companies, and 3M and Caterpillar are two of them. If both of them report excellent blah blah, they have a fairly large effect on the dow. That in turn makes a bunch of morons / algorithms exploiting morons to say "Shit going up? up? up! UP! BUY! BUY!" and then the dow goes up even more. And the dow is a decent proxy for the rest of the market - it mirrors it, to a large extent, so it's hardly surprising to see the rest go up too.


Hmmm, I'm not so sure two company earnings reports would have such a profound effect on their own, even though they're large companies. But I have no proof otherwise, so who knows (which is the last thing you said anyhow!).

Did you understand his point? For the Dow Jones Industrial Average, it's only 30 companies, so 1 or 2 companies having a big movement DOES affect the index as a whole.

For indexes like the S&P 500, one company going up/down 10% in one day will have little affect on the index as a whole, in pure numbers. However, if that company is an indicator of the economy as a whole, it may be seen as a trend. It could indicate overall business is slowing, or a market segment is struggling. As such, I can see some merit to it having an overall effect.

hodedofome

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Re: Hilarious "reasons" for market movement
« Reply #28 on: October 24, 2014, 01:32:59 PM »
With market cap indexes a few large companies can have a profound effect. Apple takes up most of the Nasdaq 100, so whatever is going on with Apple drives a lot of the index. Less so but still significant for the S&P 500 as well.

You can see the differences by using technical indicators like new highs/new lows, looking at small/mid caps vs large caps, and others. Most stocks may be going down, but if the biggest stocks are not going down, the index may appear to be ok while under the surface it's not.

marty998

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Re: Hilarious "reasons" for market movement
« Reply #29 on: October 24, 2014, 04:00:24 PM »
With market cap indexes a few large companies can have a profound effect. Apple takes up most of the Nasdaq 100, so whatever is going on with Apple drives a lot of the index. Less so but still significant for the S&P 500 as well.

You can see the differences by using technical indicators like new highs/new lows, looking at small/mid caps vs large caps, and others. Most stocks may be going down, but if the biggest stocks are not going down, the index may appear to be ok while under the surface it's not.

That describes Australia. 1800 listed companies and the top 6 make up around half the market cap.


DoubleDown

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Re: Hilarious "reasons" for market movement
« Reply #30 on: October 24, 2014, 04:05:12 PM »
Good one Eric! I've noticed the same thing too and always thought it sounded ridiculous. In fact, just before I visited the forum right now and saw your thread, I saw this on the Money/Finance section on MSN: "Stocks Rally After 3M, Caterpillar Profits Beat Estimates; Dow Up 250" (it's probably still there right now since it was there just 10 mins. ago).

Really, two companies had decent earnings and it caused the DJIA and the entire S&P 500 to go up 1.7%???

Shockingly though, this is decently accurate. The dow only has 30 or so companies, and 3M and Caterpillar are two of them. If both of them report excellent blah blah, they have a fairly large effect on the dow. That in turn makes a bunch of morons / algorithms exploiting morons to say "Shit going up? up? up! UP! BUY! BUY!" and then the dow goes up even more. And the dow is a decent proxy for the rest of the market - it mirrors it, to a large extent, so it's hardly surprising to see the rest go up too.


Hmmm, I'm not so sure two company earnings reports would have such a profound effect on their own, even though they're large companies. But I have no proof otherwise, so who knows (which is the last thing you said anyhow!).

Did you understand his point? For the Dow Jones Industrial Average, it's only 30 companies, so 1 or 2 companies having a big movement DOES affect the index as a whole.

For indexes like the S&P 500, one company going up/down 10% in one day will have little affect on the index as a whole, in pure numbers. However, if that company is an indicator of the economy as a whole, it may be seen as a trend. It could indicate overall business is slowing, or a market segment is struggling. As such, I can see some merit to it having an overall effect.

Yes, I understood his point. When I posted that headline, all three major indexes posted on the MSN home page (DJIA, Nasdaq, S&P 500) were up about 1.7% for the day, around 11 am EST. That's a very large increase for the markets being open a couple of hours. The headline claimed this was because of Caterpillar and 3M earnings. I freely admit I could be wrong, I'm just highly skeptical that those two earnings reports moved the broad markets that much, by themselves. I think it's more like we've pointed out earlier: Namely, some speculators were feeling good about prospects and bought shares of companies. But sure, I suppose those earnings reports could feed/spawn a whole wave of optimistic speculation. But I think it's more likely this was just another dumb reason picked out of someone's ass for a headline like the others.

YoungInvestor

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Re: Hilarious "reasons" for market movement
« Reply #31 on: October 25, 2014, 02:22:48 PM »
I know it's ridiculous but sometimes there really is a reason and I want to know it.  Oh, the fed is unexpectedly raising interest rates?  That's going to cause a sell off.  But some days I guess there's no real reason

Even when the fed raises interest rates, do you really *know* what is going on in the minds of each and every investor?

That's what makes these articles so hilarious - they state the cause for a rise or fall in the market without providing any proof that the two are actually connected. Unless you survey investors (properly sampled) on their thoughts behind their purchase or sale price there is really no basis for a "cause".

Sorry, but in that case, the link is obvious. If the fed did unexpectedly rise its rates to 3%, as an example,  a major downturn would occur. There's no real question about it.

dividendman

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Re: Hilarious "reasons" for market movement
« Reply #32 on: October 26, 2014, 02:32:03 PM »
A co-worker and I often read cnn money/google finance just to make fun of the "reasons" the market goes up or down. I can predict the reasons for the next couple of months and they are as follows (feel free to replace up/down with rally/swoon, encouraged/discouraged, rise/drop, etc.):

- Markets up on ISIS defeats
- Markets down on ISIS gains
- Markets up on easing Ukraine tensions
- Markets down on increasing Ukraine tensions
- Markets up on European optimism
- Markets down on European worries
- Markets up on Fed minutes
- Markets down on Fed minutes
- Markets up on Ebola containment
- Markets down on Ebola fears
- Markets up on Christmas sales expectations
- Markets down on Christmas sales expectations
- Markets up on jobs report
- Markets down on jobs report
- Markets up on oil price drop
- Markets down on oil price drop
- Markets up on earnings
- Markets down on earnings
- Markets up on new home starts
- Markets down on new home starts
- Markets up on investor optimism
- Markets down on investor pessimism
- Markets up on mid-term election results
- Markets down on mid-term election
- Markets up on bank stress test results
- Markets down on bank stress test results
- Markets up on company x results
- Markets down on company y results
- Markets up on lack of hurricane Z damage
- Markets down on hurricane Z damage to gas refineries
- Markets up on good weather
- Markets down on polar vortex

I think that about covers it.

sol

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Re: Hilarious "reasons" for market movement
« Reply #33 on: October 26, 2014, 06:45:47 PM »
I don't see any problem with a headline like "Wall St. ends lower after shooting at Canadian parliament".  The stock market did end lower.  There was a shooting at Canadian Parliament.  The headlines doesn't tell you these two things are related, just that one of them happened after the other one.

Maybe I'm being too kind by letting them off the hook on a technicality. 

In other news, today markets were closed after sol decided to take the day off.  You can read into that statement exactly as much as you want to, but they are both true things.

nereo

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Re: Hilarious "reasons" for market movement
« Reply #34 on: October 27, 2014, 09:39:38 AM »
I don't see any problem with a headline like "Wall St. ends lower after shooting at Canadian parliament".  The stock market did end lower.  There was a shooting at Canadian Parliament.  The headlines doesn't tell you these two things are related, just that one of them happened after the other one.

Maybe I'm being too kind by letting them off the hook on a technicality. 

In other news, today markets were closed after sol decided to take the day off.  You can read into that statement exactly as much as you want to, but they are both true things.

I think there's an implied connection whenever a headline reads something like  "Wall St ends lower after shooting at Canadian parliament".
If you dont' believe me, ponder what kind of outcry you might hear if a mainstream newspaper ran with a headline like "economy stagnates as (choose random minority/social party) population (increases/decreases) in US."
people would go ape, even though all you've done is point out two facts in one headline - the reason?  there's an implied connection.

sol

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Re: Hilarious "reasons" for market movement
« Reply #35 on: October 27, 2014, 09:52:26 AM »
I think there's an implied connection whenever a headline reads something like  "Wall St ends lower after shooting at Canadian parliament".

Of course there is an implied connection, or maybe more accurately an inferred connection, but not a stated connection.  Some journalists will pride themselves on reporting "only the facts" and then letting the reader draw whatever conclusions they want to.

nereo

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Re: Hilarious "reasons" for market movement
« Reply #36 on: October 27, 2014, 10:19:24 AM »
I think there's an implied connection whenever a headline reads something like  "Wall St ends lower after shooting at Canadian parliament".

Of course there is an implied connection, or maybe more accurately an inferred connection, but not a stated connection.  Some journalists will pride themselves on reporting "only the facts" and then letting the reader draw whatever conclusions they want to.
Well if you agree that there's an implied or inferred connection, I do not understand how you "don't see any problem" with such headlines.  It's intentionally misleading.  Sure, it's done all the time, but I for one have a problem with 'journalists' try to intentionally mislead by inferring connections that simply aren't there.  It's journalism 101.

sol

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Re: Hilarious "reasons" for market movement
« Reply #37 on: October 27, 2014, 10:30:07 AM »
It's intentionally misleading.

Virtually everything you read is misleading.  Or at least "leading" in way that you might not have chosen for yourself.

The lead story on CNN this morning is about that quarantined nurse going home.  The story is now about how Gov. Christie has caved in and admitted he was wrong about the quarantine decision.  A different story about the same events might be about how the administration is risking lives by releasing a nurse who may be sick, or about how bravely they defended their citizens by demanding a quarantine for someone who claimed she was healthy but appeared to be sick.  All versions of the story can report the same facts with very different interpretations.

Quote
It's journalism 101.

Maybe in the 1970s.  These days, journalism 101 is about how to create sensationalist controversy.  It's about writing clickbait headlines, stoking the flames of the comments section, and trying to achieve viral status on facebook.  The "best" story of the day is the one that gets the most retweets.

nereo

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Re: Hilarious "reasons" for market movement
« Reply #38 on: October 27, 2014, 12:11:54 PM »
Quote
Maybe in the 1970s.  These days, journalism 101 is about how to create sensationalist controversy.  It's about writing clickbait headlines, stoking the flames of the comments section, and trying to achieve viral status on facebook.  The "best" story of the day is the one that gets the most retweets.

Well... I'm not ok with that, and I continue to have a problem with headlines that incorrectly infer a relationship between two unrelated things - even if it has become the status quo.
I suppose we'll have to agree to disagree on this one Sol.  Cheers.

sol

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Re: Hilarious "reasons" for market movement
« Reply #39 on: October 27, 2014, 12:23:21 PM »
I suppose we'll have to agree to disagree on this one Sol.  Cheers.

We probably disagree less than you think. 

I don't approve of the current status of media journalism.  I think clickbait reporting is a vile perversion.  But I also recognize it is the way world is, now.  Just because you and I are relics of a bygone era, champions of a code no one else believes in, does not make our preferred definitions of the words the correct ones.

gimp

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Re: Hilarious "reasons" for market movement
« Reply #40 on: October 27, 2014, 03:27:49 PM »
I think you guys are not really disagreeing, just have slightly different feelings about the same facts. Which, coincidentally, is almost exactly the fact about which you have slightly different feelings.

Or, to paraphrase: the media does not have a conservative bias or a liberal bias, it has a sensationalist bias.

Eric

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Re: Hilarious "reasons" for market movement
« Reply #41 on: December 09, 2015, 10:58:54 AM »
Here's a good one from today.  While not post hoc reasoning, it still makes me chuckle.

"Wall St. up on Dow-DuPont merger reports, higher oil"

And of course the the market is down 1%.

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Re: Hilarious "reasons" for market movement
« Reply #42 on: December 09, 2015, 11:31:22 AM »
There's a twitter called StockCats that makes fun of stuff like this and I like one of the recurring jokes about market news interviews: "Excuse me sir, I see you are wearing a necktie, would you like to give us your opinion on China/Oil/etc."

BlueMR2

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Re: Hilarious "reasons" for market movement
« Reply #43 on: December 10, 2015, 09:56:57 AM »
Yeah, financial analysts have to be a special kind of crazy.  Stories about how the market will surge due to oil prices are right next to stories about how the market is about to tank due to oil prices.  :-)

nereo

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Re: Hilarious "reasons" for market movement
« Reply #44 on: December 10, 2015, 02:30:47 PM »
Yeah, financial analysts have to be a special kind of crazy.  Stories about how the market will surge due to oil prices are right next to stories about how the market is about to tank due to oil prices.  :-)
What blows my mind is just how little accountability there is for financial analysts. They can make just about any prediction that they want about markets going up or down in the next month/year and they almost never get called out when they are wrong.  Whenever past-predictions are brought up, the default excuse seems to be "well yeah, but we never knew that _____ was going to happen.  My analysis was otherwise correct ".