Author Topic: High risk, high reward investments  (Read 4580 times)

patjk

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High risk, high reward investments
« on: December 21, 2019, 07:39:10 AM »
What are the high risk/potentially high reward investments you are looking at? I want to take 10% of my investment money and put it into higher risk things - what are you guys looking at and buying?
Thanks.

Wrenchturner

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Re: High risk, high reward investments
« Reply #1 on: December 21, 2019, 12:25:13 PM »
I missed out on shorting Canadian cannabis retailers... someone made an inverse ETF.

Mostly posting to follow.

vand

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Re: High risk, high reward investments
« Reply #2 on: December 21, 2019, 01:38:46 PM »
Cryptos
Gold miners
European banks
China equities
Tobacco stocks
Soft Agricutural ETFs

crammarc

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Re: High risk, high reward investments
« Reply #3 on: December 23, 2019, 09:46:28 AM »
Amarin stock (AMRN)

Single product drug company (Vascepa). FDA - approved.  Recent significant FDA label expansion.

I like the company because their drug could be a game changer in cardiac health.  Cardiac health hasn't seen big moves since the discovery of statins.  Vascepa + statins = an additional ~20-30% reduction in cardiac risks for at risk patients.  Sounds great to me.

For information I always start with the company's investor relations website (https://investor.amarincorp.com/press-releases) information should be reliable and you know that any bias will skew positive.

Risks that I see, valuation already includes large future sales increases.  Drug sales can be notoriously tough to grow super quick if you are a small company without a large experienced sales force.  That said a drug that has results like what they are reporting can almost sell itself.  Just my 2 cents.


SpaceCow

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Re: High risk, high reward investments
« Reply #4 on: December 24, 2019, 12:05:08 PM »
I have about 5-10% of my small portfolio in Ethereum, a few small pharmaceuticals and a few other individual stocks in firms/industries with which I am relatively familiar. I treat it mentally as being more for entertainment purposes than for financial gain.

Roland of Gilead

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Re: High risk, high reward investments
« Reply #5 on: December 24, 2019, 06:29:14 PM »
Biotech.

The best high risk high reward play right now I can think of is the BMY CVRs.   They pay $9 if all three late stage III drug candidates that Celgene had before the takeover are approved by Dec 2020 and March 2021.  They are currently about $3 (were $2 a few weeks ago).

One reason I like them a lot is they should not really be affected by political posturing during this coming election year.   They will either get approved or not based on science.   I really liked the risk/reward at $2 but it is fair at $3.


I also like Bluebird bio, because it was trading for $170 a few months ago and is $90 now but should be able to get back into the mid $100s in 2020 unless we get a lot of politics.
« Last Edit: December 24, 2019, 06:31:35 PM by Roland of Gilead »

ChpBstrd

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Re: High risk, high reward investments
« Reply #6 on: December 24, 2019, 08:44:36 PM »
Protective put options.

They will likely expire worthless, and take a high-single-digit percentage of my portfolio with them.

However, they will also save my arse when/if the SHTF. They also allow me to maintain a much higher stock allocation than I'd otherwise be comfortable with - nearly 100% in protected accounts. So they're a highly risky asset that allows me to reduce portfolio risk.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: High risk, high reward investments
« Reply #7 on: December 24, 2019, 09:17:58 PM »
You could bet volatility will be higher than normal.  VIX options?

On a CNBC show a few days ago, someone took a sample of investor confidence at a conference or meeting, and had people rank where they'd invest in 2020.  Japan ranked dead last.  He went on to say things look promising there.  So you could aim for the value + contrarian buy of Japanese equities.

markbike528CBX

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Re: High risk, high reward investments
« Reply #8 on: December 24, 2019, 11:20:42 PM »
You could bet volatility will be higher than normal.  VIX options?

On a CNBC show a few days ago, someone took a sample of investor confidence at a conference or meeting, and had people rank where they'd invest in 2020.  Japan ranked dead last.  He went on to say things look promising there.  So you could aim for the value + contrarian buy of Japanese equities.

Fear is back, VIX above 15, XIV breaking down. SPY to follow, earnings will be a reality check.

efree

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Re: High risk, high reward investments
« Reply #9 on: December 25, 2019, 12:47:59 AM »
I have a lot of my money in the European P2P platforms. Business loans pay 17-20% p.a. so it's very attractive but many of the platforms have practically no track record to speak of (i.e. less than two years) so it's very risky.

Michael in ABQ

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Re: High risk, high reward investments
« Reply #10 on: December 25, 2019, 02:07:35 AM »
I've been investing some money in a P2P lending platform for purchasing inventory for growing businesses.

Bottom Line Up Front: Invest in inventory for eCommerce/retail businesses with KickFurther and earn up to 20% annualized returns for 4-8 month investments.

I created a thread that provides more details. As you can see by the comments some people are skeptical but they've been operating for several years and the results of every single deal are available on their website to see.

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/reader-recommendations/kickfurther-earn-20-annualized-returns/

vand

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Re: High risk, high reward investments
« Reply #11 on: December 25, 2019, 07:22:01 AM »
Of course, risk and reward are not traded in a linear fashion. The smartest plays are those that have an assymetric risk vs reward profile, where the upside vastly dwarfs the potential downside. Finding cyclical markets which have already been through a brutal bear market are usually a good place to start. The irony is that people will tell you that these are the plays to avoid because all the see is the previous bear market, not the future recovery. Capturing superior returns will always have an element of doing the opposite of the mainstream.
« Last Edit: December 25, 2019, 07:40:16 AM by vand »

Roland of Gilead

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Re: High risk, high reward investments
« Reply #12 on: December 25, 2019, 07:30:03 AM »
Of course, risk and reward are not traded in a linear fashion. The smartest plays are those that have an assymetric risk vs reward profile, where the upside vastly dwarfs the potential downside. Finding cyclical markets which have already been through a brutal bear market are usually a good place to start. The irony is that people will tell you that the plays to avoid because all the see is the previous bear market, not the future recovery.

So, like oil drillers lol?   Seadrill has fallen from $40 to $0.20, bankrupted, reorganized and now near bankrupt again.   That is a pretty beat up bear market.

vand

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Re: High risk, high reward investments
« Reply #13 on: December 25, 2019, 07:59:21 AM »
Of course, risk and reward are not traded in a linear fashion. The smartest plays are those that have an assymetric risk vs reward profile, where the upside vastly dwarfs the potential downside. Finding cyclical markets which have already been through a brutal bear market are usually a good place to start. The irony is that people will tell you that the plays to avoid because all the see is the previous bear market, not the future recovery.

So, like oil drillers lol?   Seadrill has fallen from $40 to $0.20, bankrupted, reorganized and now near bankrupt again.   That is a pretty beat up bear market.

That's got very little to do with what I posted. Juniors and startups burn through cash and rely on discoveries to pay back their stockholders, which is why you should not buy individual stocks but rather a sector basket. That is very different to buying an established company like Exxon or BP after the oil price has fallen.

Roland of Gilead

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Re: High risk, high reward investments
« Reply #14 on: December 25, 2019, 08:27:52 AM »
That's got very little to do with what I posted. Juniors and startups burn through cash and rely on discoveries to pay back their stockholders, which is why you should not buy individual stocks but rather a sector basket. That is very different to buying an established company like Exxon or BP after the oil price has fallen.

I am just saying that even established companies (like Sears, Nokia and Kodak) can be disrupted by changing times.

Perhaps as electric vehicles really start to take off, Exxon and BP might never get on a roll again

vand

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Re: High risk, high reward investments
« Reply #15 on: December 26, 2019, 02:19:40 AM »
That's got very little to do with what I posted. Juniors and startups burn through cash and rely on discoveries to pay back their stockholders, which is why you should not buy individual stocks but rather a sector basket. That is very different to buying an established company like Exxon or BP after the oil price has fallen.

I am just saying that even established companies (like Sears, Nokia and Kodak) can be disrupted by changing times.

Perhaps as electric vehicles really start to take off, Exxon and BP might never get on a roll again

That is why you should invest with a margin of safety. BP trades on 11 times earnings... so they could theoretically simply maintain output for the next 11 years and you would effectively get your money back. In my estimation, whatever happens in the energy sector, it is highly likely that BP is going to be around and remain a big player for more than the next decade.


Did you know that the current market capitalisation of both Apple and Microsoft is larger than the entire market capitalisation of the energy sector? This sort of abberation is unsustainable in the long term as profits and wages tend to equalise between industries over the long run via the economic signals of excess profits.
« Last Edit: December 26, 2019, 02:24:44 AM by vand »

JAYSLOL

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Re: High risk, high reward investments
« Reply #16 on: December 27, 2019, 12:40:15 AM »
Did you know that the current market capitalisation of both Apple and Microsoft is larger than the entire market capitalisation of the energy sector?

And why shouldn’t it?  I’m currently travelling, visiting a very rural area in a 3rd world country, and have yet to meet a person older than 12 (and under 80) that doesn’t have a smart phone, a Facebook account, Gmail, etc.  And this is an area where no homes have heat or running water, many homes don’t even have electricity at all, but the kids all charge their phones at the houses that do or at the school they walk to.  Maybe 1 in 50 people own a motorbike, and maybe 1 in 200+ own a car.  I would bet American tech companies are making more off people here than American energy companies, and I would guess that’s true for most of the world.  Another way to look at it, I wonder how much $$ the US energy sector spends each year on all things Microsoft and Apple, while I wonder how much Microsoft and Apple spend on energy each year?  I’ll bet the tech giants get the better end of that one. 

vand

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Re: High risk, high reward investments
« Reply #17 on: December 27, 2019, 01:40:29 PM »
Did you know that the current market capitalisation of both Apple and Microsoft is larger than the entire market capitalisation of the energy sector?

And why shouldn’t it?  I’m currently travelling, visiting a very rural area in a 3rd world country, and have yet to meet a person older than 12 (and under 80) that doesn’t have a smart phone, a Facebook account, Gmail, etc.  And this is an area where no homes have heat or running water, many homes don’t even have electricity at all, but the kids all charge their phones at the houses that do or at the school they walk to.  Maybe 1 in 50 people own a motorbike, and maybe 1 in 200+ own a car.  I would bet American tech companies are making more off people here than American energy companies, and I would guess that’s true for most of the world.  Another way to look at it, I wonder how much $$ the US energy sector spends each year on all things Microsoft and Apple, while I wonder how much Microsoft and Apple spend on energy each year?  I’ll bet the tech giants get the better end of that one.

Like I said, look for cyclical markets that have gone through a bear market. Tech is hot today. 15 years sgo it was on the floor and it was commodities and financial stocks that were the market leaders. Growth has had the upper hand in the past decade, tomorrow it will be value's turn to shine.


JAYSLOL

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Re: High risk, high reward investments
« Reply #18 on: December 27, 2019, 03:27:15 PM »
Did you know that the current market capitalisation of both Apple and Microsoft is larger than the entire market capitalisation of the energy sector?

And why shouldn’t it?  I’m currently travelling, visiting a very rural area in a 3rd world country, and have yet to meet a person older than 12 (and under 80) that doesn’t have a smart phone, a Facebook account, Gmail, etc.  And this is an area where no homes have heat or running water, many homes don’t even have electricity at all, but the kids all charge their phones at the houses that do or at the school they walk to.  Maybe 1 in 50 people own a motorbike, and maybe 1 in 200+ own a car.  I would bet American tech companies are making more off people here than American energy companies, and I would guess that’s true for most of the world.  Another way to look at it, I wonder how much $$ the US energy sector spends each year on all things Microsoft and Apple, while I wonder how much Microsoft and Apple spend on energy each year?  I’ll bet the tech giants get the better end of that one.

Like I said, look for cyclical markets that have gone through a bear market. Tech is hot today. 15 years sgo it was on the floor and it was commodities and financial stocks that were the market leaders. Growth has had the upper hand in the past decade, tomorrow it will be value's turn to shine.

That all works great if you know exactly when “tomorrow” is, and exactly what the “value” is to get into, then after riding that you have to market-time into some other sector perfectly or it’s all for nothing because your value-heavy portfolio will get left in the dust when the next cycle begins. 

Car Jack

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Re: High risk, high reward investments
« Reply #19 on: December 29, 2019, 02:09:21 PM »
BRK/B.  It's as risky as I get.  I buy it because it's so diversified all by itself and pays no dividends.  To me, dividends are bad because when they're paid in a taxable account, you have to pay.....well.....taxes.  Buying and holding BRK/B means I have no taxes periodically due.  What's the risk?  Well, Warren and Charlie aren't exactly 30 year olds.

Roland of Gilead

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Re: High risk, high reward investments
« Reply #20 on: December 29, 2019, 07:31:48 PM »
BRK/B.  It's as risky as I get.  I buy it because it's so diversified all by itself and pays no dividends.  To me, dividends are bad because when they're paid in a taxable account, you have to pay.....well.....taxes.  Buying and holding BRK/B means I have no taxes periodically due.  What's the risk?  Well, Warren and Charlie aren't exactly 30 year olds.

And recently they have not been making the wisest of choices.

vand

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Re: High risk, high reward investments
« Reply #21 on: December 30, 2019, 01:19:40 AM »
Did you know that the current market capitalisation of both Apple and Microsoft is larger than the entire market capitalisation of the energy sector?

And why shouldn’t it?  I’m currently travelling, visiting a very rural area in a 3rd world country, and have yet to meet a person older than 12 (and under 80) that doesn’t have a smart phone, a Facebook account, Gmail, etc.  And this is an area where no homes have heat or running water, many homes don’t even have electricity at all, but the kids all charge their phones at the houses that do or at the school they walk to.  Maybe 1 in 50 people own a motorbike, and maybe 1 in 200+ own a car.  I would bet American tech companies are making more off people here than American energy companies, and I would guess that’s true for most of the world.  Another way to look at it, I wonder how much $$ the US energy sector spends each year on all things Microsoft and Apple, while I wonder how much Microsoft and Apple spend on energy each year?  I’ll bet the tech giants get the better end of that one.

Like I said, look for cyclical markets that have gone through a bear market. Tech is hot today. 15 years sgo it was on the floor and it was commodities and financial stocks that were the market leaders. Growth has had the upper hand in the past decade, tomorrow it will be value's turn to shine.

That all works great if you know exactly when “tomorrow” is, and exactly what the “value” is to get into, then after riding that you have to market-time into some other sector perfectly or it’s all for nothing because your value-heavy portfolio will get left in the dust when the next cycle begins.

I don't really get why you're getting your knickers in a twist.
The OP asked for higher risk/reward investment ideas. I'm throwing some out there. That necessitates removing your passive index skullcap and having an opinion on things like valuations and market timing.
If you have nothing more constructive to offer then stick to being full time TSM indexer.

EliteZags

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Re: High risk, high reward investments
« Reply #22 on: January 02, 2020, 01:51:07 PM »
Amarin stock (AMRN)

Single product drug company (Vascepa). FDA - approved.  Recent significant FDA label expansion.

I like the company because their drug could be a game changer in cardiac health.  Cardiac health hasn't seen big moves since the discovery of statins.  Vascepa + statins = an additional ~20-30% reduction in cardiac risks for at risk patients.  Sounds great to me.

For information I always start with the company's investor relations website (https://investor.amarincorp.com/press-releases) information should be reliable and you know that any bias will skew positive.

Risks that I see, valuation already includes large future sales increases.  Drug sales can be notoriously tough to grow super quick if you are a small company without a large experienced sales force.  That said a drug that has results like what they are reporting can almost sell itself.  Just my 2 cents.


a few of us bought in about a month before the AdCom vote at ~$16 off a tip from a friend of a friend with the company, the others sold after the pre 16-0 vote spike for ~40% gain, while I'm still holding since a just few grand on STCG doesn't interest me that much
Not sure of any upcoming potential movement events though

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: High risk, high reward investments
« Reply #23 on: January 03, 2020, 07:32:09 PM »
Naturally when I suggest high risk investments, they may be things I haven't bought.  So be warned of that in advance.

Right now Iran is in 3 days of mourning over the general the U.S. killed in an air strike.  They are plotting revenge, and may strike out at allies of the U.S., or even the world's oil market.  For example, they might target Saudi Arabia's oil production, or block the straight of Hormuz, or even attack oil facilities in Iraq (but that would undermine their influence in Iraq, so less likely, but possible).

The stock market has priced that tension at +2.9% higher prices in oil.  If you disagree, and fee Iran will create much greater instability next week, or later this month, you could speculate on higher oil prices.  Since I just looked up the list of oil ETFs in another thread, I found a pretty good candidate for this:

ProShares UltraPro 3x Crude Oil ETF (OILU, exp ratio 0.49%).  In the past 12 months it gained +52.8%.  On just Friday's news in Iraq, it gained +9.1% during the day.  So if you want high risk, high reward, that may be it.

nogopro

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Re: High risk, high reward investments
« Reply #24 on: January 06, 2020, 02:46:35 PM »
I have quite a few ideas. Some of these are "momentum" plays -- areas that have already started going up and seem to have quite a bright future, the consensus seems. All are ETFs, so as to get in on the action and be diversified but not be overexposed to any one particular stock.

These are, in ticker form:

- EMQQ (or FDNI, basically buying into down but not out Chinese emerging giant Tencent, and also Naspers, Alibaba, etc.). 

- QCLN or ICLN or ACES (green energy stock: these were great performers last year, and with trade deal maybe wrapping up this year, they're going to keep rising, I think; it's diversified and captures what will be or already are big players in this space)

- BBC or BTEC or ARKG (these are all clinical trial/genomic/biotech ETFs; all have been doing quite well actually, and are worth betting on IMO)

- IRBO, BOTZ, ROBO (these are all somewhat overlapping robotics ETFs)

- ESPO and HERO (video game and esports: an emerging industry)

Then there are older plays. I'm putting some money in the long term HEDGEFUNDIE strategy. I have faith in the market for at least this year, given Trump and his infatuation for stock prices. This would be 60% TMF/40% UPRO. I also have small amounts in PALL (palladium and platinum fund) and gold through PHYS.

I've also bought into GBTC in case of another major BTC rally (who knows), and SPCE (again, who knows). I also have some NOK and ACB stock I got from free trade promotions (lol); sold the ACB and bought MJ with proceeds (MJ ETF -- it's bottomed out but there's definitely money to be made in that industry...someday). NOK has already risen 10% since I bought into it, on 5G speculation, I think.

No to oil. It's not the future.

bryan995

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Re: High risk, high reward investments
« Reply #25 on: January 16, 2020, 06:01:54 AM »
High risk high reward??

Sounds like you may  find a new home in /r/wallstreetbets

If you have diamondhands and believe like the rest of the community that stocks only go in one direction (UP),you can make a killing simply buying calls. Incredibly risky. But sure is a lot of fun. Basically gambling on your phone ! :)

Roland of Gilead

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Re: High risk, high reward investments
« Reply #26 on: January 16, 2020, 06:16:13 AM »
High risk high reward??

Sounds like you may  find a new home in /r/wallstreetbets

If you have diamondhands and believe like the rest of the community that stocks only go in one direction (UP),you can make a killing simply buying calls. Incredibly risky. But sure is a lot of fun. Basically gambling on your phone ! :)

You have to learn the lingo there first though.   Step 1 is to get your vaccines, as many as possible.   Stocks are called stonks, and yes, stonks only go up.  Money is called tendies, possibly a reference to being able to buy chicken tenders on a value menu with your winnings.   Hot girls are called Becky, although I am not 100% sure about this.  If you don't know how to respond to a question in a post, typing "Sir this is a Wendy's" is an appropriate response.

talltexan

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Re: High risk, high reward investments
« Reply #27 on: January 16, 2020, 07:32:38 AM »
I've moved 10% of my 401K into a brokerage link and it's now invested in two small-cap value index funds. $SLYV and $DLS

This may not be enough juice for the rest of you, but it's been a good year for me!

Xlar

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Re: High risk, high reward investments
« Reply #28 on: January 16, 2020, 08:28:55 AM »
Amarin stock (AMRN)

Single product drug company (Vascepa). FDA - approved.  Recent significant FDA label expansion.

I like the company because their drug could be a game changer in cardiac health.  Cardiac health hasn't seen big moves since the discovery of statins.  Vascepa + statins = an additional ~20-30% reduction in cardiac risks for at risk patients.  Sounds great to me.

For information I always start with the company's investor relations website (https://investor.amarincorp.com/press-releases) information should be reliable and you know that any bias will skew positive.

Risks that I see, valuation already includes large future sales increases.  Drug sales can be notoriously tough to grow super quick if you are a small company without a large experienced sales force.  That said a drug that has results like what they are reporting can almost sell itself.  Just my 2 cents.


a few of us bought in about a month before the AdCom vote at ~$16 off a tip from a friend of a friend with the company, the others sold after the pre 16-0 vote spike for ~40% gain, while I'm still holding since a just few grand on STCG doesn't interest me that much
Not sure of any upcoming potential movement events though

Ummm, this sounds like insider trading. Which, I have to admit, does sound like a high risk option! But not one that seems smart to admit to on the internet...

celerystalks

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Re: High risk, high reward investments
« Reply #29 on: January 16, 2020, 08:33:04 AM »
oil and gas sector stocks. Since 2014 the sector has done pretty much nothing but destroy wealth. So there is your risk... A contrarian would look at the drop and the valuations in the sector and possibly view it as the bargain of a century.  There is your potential value.

talltexan

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Re: High risk, high reward investments
« Reply #30 on: January 16, 2020, 09:06:50 AM »
Will disclose a small position in $XLE, so far the dividends are basically keeping me even (while SP500 is up 15%)

markbike528CBX

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Re: High risk, high reward investments
« Reply #31 on: January 16, 2020, 10:29:53 AM »
oil and gas sector stocks. Since 2014 the sector has done pretty much nothing but destroy wealth. So there is your risk... A contrarian would look at the drop and the valuations in the sector and possibly view it as the bargain of a century.  There is your potential value.

I'd bet that when OBE is sold/full bankruptcy, that the bottom will be in.
It was PWE @ 28 when I bought it 3/4/07 (it's a oil trust, nice 10% dividend, how could I be wrong- peak oil and such, oil sands player etc. etc.)   99.57% loss so far.

Disclosure: I'm not using this as an action prompt myself.


Edit: Corrected loss % to current actual value.  Loss was higher in the recent past.
« Last Edit: January 16, 2020, 11:52:26 AM by markbike528CBX »

effigy98

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Re: High risk, high reward investments
« Reply #32 on: January 16, 2020, 12:19:33 PM »
55 UPRO / 45 TMF, rebalance quarterly. Buy an island in 20 years.

talltexan

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Re: High risk, high reward investments
« Reply #33 on: January 16, 2020, 01:07:39 PM »
I've dabbled in crypto- also, but the problem I have is just committing to a regular schedule of buying in such that I accumulate a nice position over time. I have a two-comma net worth, so I probably ought to be in there at least 10,000 to move the needle, but I cannot ever create that much margin for something so volatile.

Mighty-Dollar

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Re: High risk, high reward investments
« Reply #34 on: January 18, 2020, 09:36:20 PM »
All I can say is, if you want to go down that dangerous road, make sure that you're investing in publicly traded securities (that have a ticker symbol and can be traded through your brokerage). Also avoid penny stocks.
Having said that, wealth is grown the slow way (total stock market index fund and a total bond market index fund).