Here it comes-- Red Dow

[mrpercentage]

Well if you look at a bear market chart-- it doesn't go strait down. There is usually small but sharp spikes upward on the way down, down, down. It's summer time and it didn't correct far enough for me so I am sitting still. If I miss out on some gains-- well... it is what it is

[GuitarStv]

Well if you look at a bear market chart-- it doesn't go strait down. There is usually small but sharp spikes upward on the way down, down, down. It's summer time and it didn't correct far enough for me so I am sitting still. If I miss out on some gains-- well... it is what it is

Given the right length of time, has there ever really been a bear market?

[ender]

Welp, so much for a 10-20% correction yet again.

I know for a fact that tomorrow the market will either go up or down and I will still own the same shares I do today.

Best of luck on everyone's market timing efforts.

I thought for sure we'd get a larger drop. But instead, the market remains pretty flat.

Luckily I DCA into an index, so I am able to buy lots of these little dips. They start to add up.

I'm mainly sad my 401k auto withdrawal is the end of the month so it missed going in on Tuesday :(

[2Birds1Stone]

Mine goes in today as well =D

[Apocalyptica602]

Well if you look at a bear market chart-- it doesn't go strait down. There is usually small but sharp spikes upward on the way down, down, down. It's summer time and it didn't correct far enough for me so I am sitting still. If I miss out on some gains-- well... it is what it is

Given the right length of time, has there ever really been a bear market?

That's an interesting point. I wonder (backtested) what is the 'minimum' length of time in which the market returned 0% or a positive value.

I.E: "If you bought and hold for at least X.XX years, no matter WHEN you purchased, even the great depression or .com boom or 2008. you wouldn't have lost a penny."

[dandarc]

Well if you look at a bear market chart-- it doesn't go strait down. There is usually small but sharp spikes upward on the way down, down, down. It's summer time and it didn't correct far enough for me so I am sitting still. If I miss out on some gains-- well... it is what it is

Given the right length of time, has there ever really been a bear market?

That's an interesting point. I wonder (backtested) what is the 'minimum' length of time in which the market returned 0% or a positive value.

I.E: "If you bought and hold for at least X.XX years, no matter WHEN you purchased, even the great depression or .com boom or 2008. you wouldn't have lost a penny."

The number was 10 years (maybe less) up until the big crash in 2008/9.  Up until then, there had never been a negative 10-year holding period for a broad basket of US stocks (S&P500).  Not sure of the exact length, but 15 years is almost certainly fitting this definition.

[EarlyStart]

Well if you look at a bear market chart-- it doesn't go strait down. There is usually small but sharp spikes upward on the way down, down, down. It's summer time and it didn't correct far enough for me so I am sitting still. If I miss out on some gains-- well... it is what it is

Given the right length of time, has there ever really been a bear market?

That's an interesting point. I wonder (backtested) what is the 'minimum' length of time in which the market returned 0% or a positive value.

I.E: "If you bought and hold for at least X.XX years, no matter WHEN you purchased, even the great depression or .com boom or 2008. you wouldn't have lost a penny."

The number was 10 years (maybe less) up until the big crash in 2008/9.  Up until then, there had never been a negative 10-year holding period for a broad basket of US stocks (S&P500).  Not sure of the exact length, but 15 years is almost certainly fitting this definition.

If you adjust for inflation and include after-tax dividend reinvestment, it's a longer period. Your post made me curious, so I reconstructed it with data I found here: http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data.htm

The data goes back to 1871, so assuming that you paid 20% tax on all dividends and immediately reinvested them, here are some longer periods without a new all-time high:

Peak | New All-time High

1927 | 1954        (27 years)

1968 | 1987        (19 years)

2000 | 2014        (14 years)

[2Birds1Stone]

Whelp, I'm still waiting for this bloodbath correction.........fawk.

[Tyson]

Clearly you blinked, and missed it.  :D

[Mr. Green]

All time high, baby!

#winning

[forummm]

All time high, baby!

#winning

I rushed over here as soon as I saw the headline. I was expecting someone to make some fun quips.

[Retire-Canada]

Reminds me of a Bond theme song: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bFurkDf6WXg

[boarder42]

Figured this would be up there today

[2Birds1Stone]

I couldn't help myself guys :)

[mrpercentage]

Now. Now I feel loved. I suspected before but I really feel it now.

My enthusiasm is still high for no reason. My logic says it's crazy, Jaws is in the water and he is hungry, and man the water is so blue. Azure. With sheens of aqua and green. But then again there is that Great White circling and he is saying jump right in there. I'm a friendly dolphin. Teeth? No, no, no... Those are white Doritos. Would you like one? In the face? Jump in there is no red in the water all. 🐬

[Cyaphas]

Now. Now I feel loved. I suspected before but I really feel it now.

Every dog has his day. Today just isn't ours.

[wienerdog]

I noticed the big spike selling BND yesterday mid morning.  Was that you?

[forummm]

Reminds me of a Bond theme song: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bFurkDf6WXg

I see Mr% as 007 around 0:55-1:02, and 1:54.

[Paul der Krake]

If Mr Percentage is Bond, then Mr Market is the villain.

The hot girl in the Aston Martin is going to show up any minute.

[mrpercentage]

Nope. My money is sitting in the Credit Union 457 option. It's literally cash. I don't touch my dividend stocks. They are still there looking at me and demanding a diamond ring for future love. Damn they are expensive

[forummm]

I don't touch my dividend stocks. They are still there looking at me and demanding a diamond ring for future love.

What does this even mean?

[iamlindoro]

What does this even mean?

What does *anything* he says mean?  Every post he makes is some sort of ultra-hyperbolic unjustly-persecuted-hero-complex word salad.

[johnny847]

What does this even mean?

What does *anything* he says mean?  Every post he makes is some sort of ultra-hyperbolic unjustly-persecuted-hero-complex word salad.

Haha I was about to post something along these lines, but you beat me to it. And expressed it better too ;)

[forummm]

What does this even mean?

What does *anything* he says mean?  Every post he makes is some sort of ultra-hyperbolic unjustly-persecuted-hero-complex word salad.

It used to be for sure. But I've seen a marked improvement over time. I can understand (if not agree) with most of it.

[caracarn]

A whole thread on market timing and how it works, while we watch it not work.  Truly comedic timing.  Perhaps Mr% is the guy who wrote that book about how the Dow was going to be at 5000 back in 2014.

[mrpercentage]

I don't touch my dividend stocks. They are still there looking at me and demanding a diamond ring for future love.

What does this even mean?

I can't buy individual stocks in a 457 silly. Those are direct stock purchases. You know the kind held on a trust so people can't even short those shares. The kind with my name on them. The kind that will send me dividend checks from Exxon with my name on it. That's what it means

It also means I have a hard time justifying any purchases right now

[Kaspian]

Please keep this thread going because doing the exact opposite of everything the OP has posted since April 5th, has proved immensely beneficial to my portfolio. 

[Metric Mouse]

Please keep this thread going because doing the exact opposite of everything the OP has posted since April 5th, has proved immensely beneficial to my portfolio.

Are you market timing based off of an internet random's blog posting?

[mrpercentage]

White Doritos
https://youtu.be/A9QTSyLwd4w?t=43s

[forummm]

I don't touch my dividend stocks. They are still there looking at me and demanding a diamond ring for future love.

What does this even mean?

I can't buy individual stocks in a 457 silly. Those are direct stock purchases. You know the kind held on a trust so people can't even short those shares. The kind with my name on them. The kind that will send me dividend checks from Exxon with my name on it. That's what it means

It also means I have a hard time justifying any purchases right now

I don't understand what any of that has to do with a diamond ring and future love.

Reminds me of a Bond theme song: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bFurkDf6WXg

Now I get this song stuck in my head every day as we keep hitting new all time highs.

[Mr. Green]

Reminds me of a Bond theme song: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bFurkDf6WXg

lol. All time high. That's hilarious.

[forummm]

[mrpercentage]

I don't touch my dividend stocks. They are still there looking at me and demanding a diamond ring for future love.

What does this even mean?

I can't buy individual stocks in a 457 silly. Those are direct stock purchases. You know the kind held on a trust so people can't even short those shares. The kind with my name on them. The kind that will send me dividend checks from Exxon with my name on it. That's what it means

It also means I have a hard time justifying any purchases right now

I don't understand what any of that has to do with a diamond ring and future love.

Reminds me of a Bond theme song: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bFurkDf6WXg

Now I get this song stuck in my head every day as we keep hitting new all time highs.

You need to bind yourself to that stock for life to get a return at these levels. Hence the diamond ring. Imagination? And yes, I rolled over my 'bonds' into cash

[frugledoc]

I don't touch my dividend stocks. They are still there looking at me and demanding a diamond ring for future love.

What does this even mean?

I can't buy individual stocks in a 457 silly. Those are direct stock purchases. You know the kind held on a trust so people can't even short those shares. The kind with my name on them. The kind that will send me dividend checks from Exxon with my name on it. That's what it means

It also means I have a hard time justifying any purchases right now

I don't understand what any of that has to do with a diamond ring and future love.

Reminds me of a Bond theme song: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bFurkDf6WXg

Now I get this song stuck in my head every day as we keep hitting new all time highs.

You need to bind yourself to that stock for life to get a return at these levels. Hence the diamond ring. Imagination? And yes, I rolled over my 'bonds' into cash

ahem, what about your divorce from Ford?

[wienerdog]

ahem, what about your divorce from Ford?

I still look at those picks from last year from time to time.  Ford is down 14.11%.  OHI has only been tracked since this April as it was the new pick but it is only down 5.10%.  VTI is at +2.94% over the same span (~April 2015).

[mrpercentage]

ahem, what about your divorce from Ford?

I still look at those picks from last year from time to time.  Ford is down 14.11%.  OHI has only been tracked since this April as it was the new pick but it is only down 5.10%.  VTI is at +2.94% over the same span (~April 2015).

Weak. Like a woman you keep bringing up old shit

[MOD EDIT: No. Read the forum rules.] 

[frugledoc]

ahem, what about your divorce from Ford?

I still look at those picks from last year from time to time.  Ford is down 14.11%.  OHI has only been tracked since this April as it was the new pick but it is only down 5.10%.  VTI is at +2.94% over the same span (~April 2015).

Weak. Like a woman you keep bringing up old shit

Us hormonal long term investors are like that

[Dollar Slice]

ahem, what about your divorce from Ford?

I still look at those picks from last year from time to time.  Ford is down 14.11%.  OHI has only been tracked since this April as it was the new pick but it is only down 5.10%.  VTI is at +2.94% over the same span (~April 2015).

Weak. Like a woman you keep bringing up old shit

That could be the most pathetic response to criticism I've ever seen on a web forum...

[wienerdog]

Weak. Like a woman you keep bringing up old shit

As an update my new position is OHI. It was a large sum for me. Up to now my direct stock return for my other positions is 12.99% for a year and some positions have only been held 6 months.

so there you have it
Omega Healthcare REIT. Its name is fitting because it will be the last large purchase for me this year.
It's yield on cost is 6.54%

go ahead and short away.

-5.1% (after closing up 2.46% Friday), large sum and 12.99% don't compute and that was only 3 months ago.  So far I have only seen a $0.58 dividend on a $35.50 purchase.   

[forummm]

ahem, what about your divorce from Ford?

I still look at those picks from last year from time to time.  Ford is down 14.11%.  OHI has only been tracked since this April as it was the new pick but it is only down 5.10%.  VTI is at +2.94% over the same span (~April 2015).

It's worse than that.

1. Apple-- they are an unstoppable force. For the next 5 years at least. Apple watch is sold out-- proving the doubters wrong once again.
2. Disney-- they get their own outline.
    a. THEY OWN STAR WARS
    b. THEY OWN STAR WARS
    c. They own ESPN
    d. They are building a Disney land in China. China has a billion people. Disney land in China. Again in China.
    e. Every movie they have made still sells at full price. Jungle Book is $25 and they made that shit in the 60's. And people still buy it.
    f. They own ABC15
    g. Its up 13,676% from its opening price and its still going. I made 12.6% in one month. Last month if I remember right.

3. PAH because their CEO came out and said his stock was going to be $200. That took balls and Im betting on it. They have a cash flow model and that works.
4. Ford because despite popular opinion they have watched everyone else die and they are still here.
5. Lack of sleep has VOIDED this comment
6. Dreamworks-- they are an upcoming Disney
7. ESCA-- because they are the only publicly traded archery stock. They own Bear, and that is bad ass.

It doesn't take numbers to recognize greatness

0 out 6 isn't bad from last years predictions....  Could have just lost 2.41% following the S&P 500.  I hope he was heavily weighted on Dreamworks as it only lost 4.01%.

PAH is only down ~65% since April '15.  That's not THAT bad.  You only need a 22 bagger to get to 200 at this point - it could happen.  And what better reason could there be for buying a stock than 'their CEO said it would go up'.  I know nothing of the company but did a quick google - good news MP there's now a class action lawsuit to recover losses.

http://www.rosenlegal.com/cases-861.html

On the bright side ESCA is only down ~40% over that time.  Much better than PAH.   Archery must not be 'in season' at the moment.

The ~15% drops from AAPL and F look downright rosy compared to those two.

Whatever. I don't even have to say how out of context that is. That is simply not what I own. If you dug that deep you are well aware of all of all  that I posted with screenshots

I still like Apple, Ford, and Disney. Ford is the only one that pays high enough to maintain that interest today. Their sales merit a price double what it is today but their are too many cab taking Wall Street idiots who think uber is going to take over the world and I that will ditch my car to rent an autonomous car a hooker with scabbies puked in. No thanks I have a 38 mile trip and kids to pick up

That is very odd.  You sure were happy about those 2 weeks later:

which is drawing down the least?......... BOOM!

Then for some reason you said you would report back to us this April?

Actually I had a 3.8 in college thanks. Look up Ad Hominem. Thanks. Strong interest in philosophy here. Thousands of hours of audiobooks consumed in a long commute because I bought my house at the wrong time and refused to sell.

I will post my gains next year. For the record:
DIS @ 92.54
AAPL @ 125
ESCA @ 15.55
PAH @ 26.63
F @ 15.80

For the last time. I have an employee discount through my mom. No sales load for me.
I will let the numbers speak next April. You have the floor. I'm done here

I am just wondering how you got +12.99% on that since that is the gain you posted above?  Maybe you had different weighting as I just had 1 share each But Disney is only up 9.66% from your position so I am still struggling to get to +12.99%  Did you mean negative?

I still go back to your posts from April 2015.  When did you sell those?  Why does all your purchases start at September?  Seems odd that oil dropped below $50 a barrel in August and all your positions start in oil in September.  What did you do from April to September?  Post all the money you have put in and your returns for the last year.  How hard is that? 

So in April '15 you were talking up:
AAPL --was at 130.7 then. Is 93.4 now. 29% loss
DIS --was at 109.6 then. Is 95.7 now. 13% loss
ESCA --was at 18.5 then. Is 9.8 now.  47% loss
F -- was at 15.8 then. Is 12.5 now. 21% loss
PAH -- was at 26.7 then. Is 8.6 now. 68% loss

Holy crap, that's a lot of losses.

Meanwhile, VOO went from 193.1 to 186.5. 3% loss.

[boarder42]

Glad youre not gone this month forummm.  Guy is obviously in a bad spot right now. I know he's fighting back but it's pretty obvious he is a type A who what's that mark Twain quote

"It's not what you don't know that gets you in trouble.

It's what you know for sure that just ain't so"

[Cycling Stache]

Glad youre not gone this month forummm.  Guy is obviously in a bad spot right now. I know he's fighting back but it's pretty obvious he is a type A who what's that mark Twain quote

"It's not what you don't know that gets you in trouble.

It's what you know for sure that just ain't so"

Mr. P. is learning the most painful (and most universal) lesson of all--that he is not special.  It turns out he does not have a beautiful mind, or a unique ability to understand the markets that pretty much nobody else has.  And that's okay.  But it's still a hard lesson to learn in life.  Go easy on him.

[iamlindoro]

Mr. P. is learning the most painful (and most universal) lesson of all--that he is not special.  It turns out he does not have a beautiful mind, or a unique ability to understand the markets that pretty much nobody else has.  And that's okay.  But it's still a hard lesson to learn in life.  Go easy on him.

I think the general horse-beating and kicking-while-down is because he *refuses* to learn that lesson. Every time it's pointed out that he has a history of making terrible picks which dismally underperform the market, he makes up some new story about how he already sold that one (despite previous claims that he'll "hold this one for the rest of his life"), or that he never really bought that position in the first place, or he'll take a screenshot of some mobile app that suggests he's somehow up across the board while strategically cutting out the information that would actually prove it. I think that if he would just stop piping up and about what a special snowflake he is, many people would find it a lot easier to empathize with him.

He's a frustrating mix of dishonest and arrogant that really works against him in any effort to fit in here. But then again... I don't think he's trying to fit in. I still think he's a troll.

[2Birds1Stone]

Guise, don't bully the OP...I can see a 50% correction coming sometime in our lifetime. I'll just invest my cash with Mr. P when that happens.

[Terrestrial]

So in April '15 you were talking up:
AAPL --was at 130.7 then. Is 93.4 now. 29% loss
DIS --was at 109.6 then. Is 95.7 now. 13% loss
ESCA --was at 18.5 then. Is 9.8 now.  47% loss
F -- was at 15.8 then. Is 12.5 now. 21% loss
PAH -- was at 26.7 then. Is 8.6 now. 68% loss


Yikes - I've known his picks were bad for a while but dont really track them - Holy S.   

Meanwhile the market hit an all time this week.  I sure hate having the most money I ever have.

[forummm]

I like Mr%. I want him to be successful and happy. His style is not my style. His thoughts are not my thoughts. But I wish him well. My goal is to challenge his thinking to help him better evaluate his investing philosophy and decisions.

I did find his communication style irritating at first. It can be a bit hard to understand (especially the posts where he says he was drinking). But he's grown on me. And I can follow him most of the time. I like seeing his posts and interacting with him.

[wienerdog]

DIS --was at 109.6 then. Is 95.7 now. 13% loss

To be fair I think he has been in Disney for longer than the April '15 but it is awful hard to track as he never really tells you exactly what he is doing.  Many have asked to show all transactions like the guy is doing in the momentum thread but we never get the data.  I have him in Disney at $92.54 so around +7.6%.  I guess many of the others he sold but he won't say what he sold them at and I am sure he doesn't include them in his calculations.  Best strategy is probably to short what he suggests.  All his current numbers are from the oil run up that started in Sept and for some reason the other trades from what I can tell aren't included.

[Cyaphas]

It's been a crazy weekend and Sunday isn't over yet. I'm guessing; Down 2% by close monday.

[forummm]

DIS --was at 109.6 then. Is 95.7 now. 13% loss

To be fair I think he has been in Disney for longer than the April '15 but it is awful hard to track as he never really tells you exactly what he is doing.  Many have asked to show all transactions like the guy is doing in the momentum thread but we never get the data.  I have him in Disney at $92.54 so around +7.6%.  I guess many of the others he sold but he won't say what he sold them at and I am sure he doesn't include them in his calculations.  Best strategy is probably to short what he suggests.  All his current numbers are from the oil run up that started in Sept and for some reason the other trades from what I can tell aren't included.

Who knows when he initiated the positions. But I quoted his post where he was extolling the virtues of particular stocks on a particular date--i.e. he thought they were all going way up from their values at that time.

[ender]

It's been a crazy weekend and Sunday isn't over yet. I'm guessing; Down 2% by close monday.

SP500 futures are up slightly right now, which is what I look at when I need to scratch my "what might stocks do tomorrow" itch ;-)