Right now Im talking up cash and bonds. You better watch out boy
thank you for the continued entertainment.
I know the day will come when you will finally admit that you cannot beat the market and sell everything and just buy the index.
Well for the record I am directly responsible for 5 people contributing to VINIX in a 457. I held their hand and walked them through the online sign up process. I am also indirectly responsible for probably another half dozen 457 sign ups. With some I put them in a short term annuities because they couldn't tolerate market volatility. I am responsible for a couple of more moving their funds from highest fees of our options (they were already signed up) to variations of Vanguard. The sad thing is all they needed was a little nudge. Shame on the rep. They obviously overlook the true potential of investors, but then again I had their best interest at heart-- so be it. God looking out
For the short time. I will step out of the way if I see a bus coming. If it lowers my return (it may) then so be it. I did not advise anyone else to that. I recommended staying the course provided they have the years.
The danger, as I see it, is that you get it right a couple of times in the beginning and then you develop the mindset of "hey, I can beat/time the market!" And it's that mindset that's going to get you in to trouble. You can't pick winners and you can't time the market. No one can. It's a fools errand.
If you are like me, you probably have to learn this the hard way because you think "well just a few simple logical rules will let me get ahead of everyone else because I'm smarter/stronger/more disciplined, etc...". Here's the thing - when you take losses (and you will), it will be important that you don't let it hurt your pride, causing you to double down on your under-performing timing behavior. It's important that once you start to have losses that you cut those losses by re-visiting your approach to trying to pick winners and time things. It's humbling (trust me) but necessary....
So your argument is "Yeah, you could do well, but, you know, you
might not, so, like, don't even try."? I haven't been following the OP's topic enough to know whether they are doing well or not, clearly one
can beat the market with a little bit of interest and some effort. Hell, you could do it by holding a portfolio weighted to BRK. De Maso and Wiener have been beating their benchmarks by 2% annualized for twenty (five?) years, and they post their results and suggestions every month. I would hardly call that track record a 'fools errand'. But I'm perhaps more open to risk, since I have such a long timeline to consider.