Author Topic: Here it comes-- Red Dow  (Read 122157 times)

2Birds1Stone

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #200 on: June 16, 2016, 09:15:09 AM »
Guise! Keep your powder dry......I just put $10,000 into VTI/VXUS today.......with my investing history this means we will without a doubt see a huge correction any day now.

meghan88

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #201 on: June 16, 2016, 06:28:52 PM »
I have some cash that's just waiting for the pre-election shit-storm.  Then it'll go down even more from there once I take the plunge.

mrpercentage

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #202 on: June 16, 2016, 06:50:21 PM »
I will have a whole years pay to put on the line soon. Hopefully posed to strike before the storm hits. I have been heavy on the wine and contemplating my new reality. Mr % skill set vs the pension/annuity payment everyone seems to want. I have done the math and can have my half a million with average rate of return on time for early retirement. The math approves. Only time and God will tell.

Now the real crisis is waiting for the next episode of Game of Thrones. For goodness sake unleash the Mountain and find another reason to show the Red Woman and Daenerys naked-- preferably together

flyersman

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #203 on: June 16, 2016, 08:22:12 PM »
I will have a whole years pay to put on the line soon. Hopefully posed to strike before the storm hits. I have been heavy on the wine and contemplating my new reality. Mr % skill set vs the pension/annuity payment everyone seems to want. I have done the math and can have my half a million with average rate of return on time for early retirement. The math approves. Only time and God will tell.

Now the real crisis is waiting for the next episode of Game of Thrones. For goodness sake unleash the Mountain and find another reason to show the Red Woman and Daenerys naked-- preferably together

I just out 50k of $150 towards FFstvx on Tuesday. Do you think markets will drop ore election and what month would you put the rest to?

forummm

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #204 on: June 17, 2016, 09:43:27 AM »
I will have a whole years pay to put on the line soon. Hopefully posed to strike before the storm hits. I have been heavy on the wine and contemplating my new reality. Mr % skill set vs the pension/annuity payment everyone seems to want. I have done the math and can have my half a million with average rate of return on time for early retirement. The math approves. Only time and God will tell.

Now the real crisis is waiting for the next episode of Game of Thrones. For goodness sake unleash the Mountain and find another reason to show the Red Woman and Daenerys naked-- preferably together

Please don't gamble with a year's pay. That's a long time of labor to make up for mistakes.

Kaspian

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #205 on: June 17, 2016, 12:47:51 PM »
I will have a whole years pay to put on the line soon. Hopefully posed to strike before the storm hits. I have been heavy on the wine and contemplating my new reality. Mr % skill set vs the pension/annuity payment everyone seems to want. I have done the math and can have my half a million with average rate of return on time for early retirement. The math approves. Only time and God will tell.

Now the real crisis is waiting for the next episode of Game of Thrones. For goodness sake unleash the Mountain and find another reason to show the Red Woman and Daenerys naked-- preferably together

Please don't gamble with a year's pay. That's a long time of labor to make up for mistakes.

^^This!! 

I have $350 (second pay of every month) to put into investments next week.  I'm pretty sure there'll be a mad sell-off of international as Brexit looms and that's where it'll all be going.  I'm looking forward to the sale!  (And to the inevitable elastic bounce-back.)  Even if it happens, it'll take years for Britain to unravel itself, companies won't be immediately hurt at all, and London will still stay the biggest financial hub.  I like when investors panic for stupid reasons--does nothing but help me out.

Cycling Stache

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #206 on: June 17, 2016, 02:36:14 PM »
I will have a whole years pay to put on the line soon. Hopefully posed to strike before the storm hits. I have been heavy on the wine and contemplating my new reality. Mr % skill set vs the pension/annuity payment everyone seems to want. I have done the math and can have my half a million with average rate of return on time for early retirement. The math approves. Only time and God will tell.

Now the real crisis is waiting for the next episode of Game of Thrones. For goodness sake unleash the Mountain and find another reason to show the Red Woman and Daenerys naked-- preferably together

Please don't gamble with a year's pay. That's a long time of labor to make up for mistakes.

^^This!! 

I have $350 (second pay of every month) to put into investments next week.  I'm pretty sure there'll be a mad sell-off of international as Brexit looms and that's where it'll all be going.  I'm looking forward to the sale!  (And to the inevitable elastic bounce-back.)  Even if it happens, it'll take years for Britain to unravel itself, companies won't be immediately hurt at all, and London will still stay the biggest financial hub.  I like when investors panic for stupid reasons--does nothing but help me out.

This post makes me sad.  It agrees with the previous post recommending that OP not gamble with his money, then immediately recommends market timing based on--wait for it--the ability to predict IRRATIONAL market movements!  In other words, gambling.

I know investor alley is going to be like this, which is why I tell myself not to come to investor alley.  It may end up being correct that the market goes up or down based on predictions of how people will react to a particular event, but the lay person's (or really, anybody's) ability to BETTER predict that outcome is suspect. 

That said, I'm investing next week.  Because my pay check automatically feeds to Vanguard, and it happens to be a pay day. 

mrpercentage

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #207 on: June 17, 2016, 05:25:52 PM »
Okay I shouldn't drink and type, but holding a years pay in cash or short term annuity to time entry into an index like the S&P 500 is not gambling. Not even close. Now if I cashed out and put it all into Exxon (not a bad idea), I would understand the gripe. I mean I would have to pay a lot of taxes to do that

Just curious, does anyone else have a spread sheet showing how much per wage hour they get from their dividend stocks? I do. (total annual dividends) divided by 52 divided by 40.  Then I add it to my wage and watch my hourly wage increase every time I invest.

Cyaphas

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #208 on: June 17, 2016, 06:42:44 PM »


Just curious, does anyone else have a spread sheet showing how much per wage hour they get from their dividend stocks? I do. (total annual dividends) divided by 52 divided by 40.  Then I add it to my wage and watch my hourly wage increase every time I invest.


I do not. It definitely sounds like something I'll probably do in the future.

Kaspian

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #209 on: June 20, 2016, 01:39:39 PM »
This post makes me sad.  It agrees with the previous post recommending that OP not gamble with his money, then immediately recommends market timing based on--wait for it--the ability to predict IRRATIONAL market movements!  In other words, gambling.

Nope, I don't time--don't be sad.  As part of my 50% savings plan I have an auto-contribute every two weeks into my asset allocation. I always have to manually add more money ($350) after my second paycheque because on that one there isn't rent/bills coming out.  Always on the 19th of the month (or the closest working day after).  It goes into my asset allocation but occasionally (if things are way, way off) it will go into the under-performer to help rebalance.  If my 20% international allocation was super down, that's where it would go.  But as of this moment, it's not--so they're going into all the funds as per usual.  I'd never, ever advocate storing cash with intent to timing or gambling.  I was just hoping all the markets would be a little down on my monthly manual-buy day.  But they're not.  Money goes in anyway. 
« Last Edit: June 20, 2016, 01:41:39 PM by Kaspian »

Cycling Stache

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #210 on: June 20, 2016, 06:20:52 PM »
This post makes me sad.  It agrees with the previous post recommending that OP not gamble with his money, then immediately recommends market timing based on--wait for it--the ability to predict IRRATIONAL market movements!  In other words, gambling.

Nope, I don't time--don't be sad.  As part of my 50% savings plan I have an auto-contribute every two weeks into my asset allocation. I always have to manually add more money ($350) after my second paycheque because on that one there isn't rent/bills coming out.  Always on the 19th of the month (or the closest working day after).  It goes into my asset allocation but occasionally (if things are way, way off) it will go into the under-performer to help rebalance.  If my 20% international allocation was super down, that's where it would go.  But as of this moment, it's not--so they're going into all the funds as per usual.  I'd never, ever advocate storing cash with intent to timing or gambling.  I was just hoping all the markets would be a little down on my monthly manual-buy day.  But they're not.  Money goes in anyway.

Okay, fair points, and glad to hear.  This thread started with the prediction of an imminent market downturn that still has not happened, so it probably unfairly colors all the posts thereafter.

mrpercentage

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #211 on: June 21, 2016, 10:42:47 AM »
Must be close to a correction because I really really want to throw all my money in the market right now with no real reason to do so

thd7t

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #212 on: June 21, 2016, 10:47:34 AM »
Must be close to a correction because I really really want to throw all my money in the market right now with no real reason to do so
With your recent personal circumstances, (and good news) you probably feel inclined toward a change, regardless of forecasting.

Terrestrial

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #213 on: June 23, 2016, 08:38:14 AM »
I'm pretty sure there'll be a mad sell-off of international as Brexit looms and that's where it'll all be going.  I'm looking forward to the sale!  (And to the inevitable elastic bounce-back.)  Even if it happens, it'll take years for Britain to unravel itself, companies won't be immediately hurt at all, and London will still stay the biggest financial hub.  I like when investors panic for stupid reasons--does nothing but help me out.

How'd this work out...The day this was posted was actually the low for the past month and the S&P is 1.5% higher since then (less than a week).    International markets have actually done much better, the British market has surged 4% in a straight line up the past week, German market over 5%.  Those are heavy gains to miss hoping for a sale.   That's the problem with these predictions - history tells us that in general the market will go up....is this a guarantee of the future, no...but it's the best we have to go on.  Most of the time calls for correction will likely be wrong.  If one waits long enough, yes eventually they will be right - but at what cost.  If the market goes up 20% before the 10% correction materializes is that a 'win'?
« Last Edit: June 23, 2016, 08:43:50 AM by Terrestrial »

Kaspian

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #214 on: June 23, 2016, 10:27:29 AM »
I'm pretty sure there'll be a mad sell-off of international as Brexit looms and that's where it'll all be going.  I'm looking forward to the sale!  (And to the inevitable elastic bounce-back.)  Even if it happens, it'll take years for Britain to unravel itself, companies won't be immediately hurt at all, and London will still stay the biggest financial hub.  I like when investors panic for stupid reasons--does nothing but help me out.

How'd this work out...The day this was posted was actually the low for the past month and the S&P is 1.5% higher since then (less than a week).    International markets have actually done much better, the British market has surged 4% in a straight line up the past week, German market over 5%.  Those are heavy gains to miss hoping for a sale.   That's the problem with these predictions - history tells us that in general the market will go up....is this a guarantee of the future, no...but it's the best we have to go on.  Most of the time calls for correction will likely be wrong.  If one waits long enough, yes eventually they will be right - but at what cost.  If the market goes up 20% before the 10% correction materializes is that a 'win'?

Honestly (I promise!), it wasn't timing--I was just hoping for a sale to put in cash that was supposed to go in anyway on a specific monthly date (the 19th (20th given that the 19th was a Sunday)).   I'm glad I don't predict, 'cause you're 100% damn right--my "pretty sure" of a "mad selloff" was completely wrong.  But I was hoping it'd be down and not up.  Like I said, every paycheque does an autopurchase but on the 19th of the month I add another $350.  Most of the time it goes in evenly, but if one asset class is way out of line it goes to help rebalance the underperformer.   ...No underperformer this time around.  :/

mrpercentage

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #215 on: June 23, 2016, 09:33:42 PM »
This is what I was waiting for. I can't see into the future but this sort of thing happens. I just wait for it. I hope none of you get hurt. Play safe. Proactive not reactive

dividendman

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #216 on: June 24, 2016, 08:26:35 AM »
This is what I was waiting for. I can't see into the future but this sort of thing happens. I just wait for it. I hope none of you get hurt. Play safe. Proactive not reactive

Bwa? The DJIA is down 2% today. It was up 1.5% yesterday... is this really anything? (DJIA wise - i realize VEU/VXUS are getting hammered a bit).


2Birds1Stone

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #217 on: June 24, 2016, 08:33:40 AM »
This is what I was waiting for. I can't see into the future but this sort of thing happens. I just wait for it. I hope none of you get hurt. Play safe. Proactive not reactive

LOL VTI is down 2.24% today -_- Whoop de doo. Still way above what it was when this thread first started.

iamlindoro

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #218 on: June 24, 2016, 08:56:49 AM »

BFGirl

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #219 on: June 24, 2016, 08:59:33 AM »
This is what I was waiting for. I can't see into the future but this sort of thing happens. I just wait for it. I hope none of you get hurt. Play safe. Proactive not reactive

LOL VTI is down 2.24% today -_- Whoop de doo. Still way above what it was when this thread first started.

I thought about buying VTI at the opening, but the drop was just not as bad as I expected.  I put in a limit order instead to buy if the price drops low enough over the next few weeks. 

forummm

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #220 on: June 24, 2016, 10:59:25 AM »
This is what I was waiting for. I can't see into the future but this sort of thing happens. I just wait for it. I hope none of you get hurt. Play safe. Proactive not reactive

By waiting, you've still lost money. You've lost the gains (even after today's dip--which I think is a big overreaction) and the dividends. Don't play games with the market. The only thing you know almost for sure is that it will go up over the long run.

Tyson

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #221 on: June 24, 2016, 11:07:29 AM »
This is what I was waiting for.

Proactive not reactive

DOES NOT COMPUTE

Sure it does - he was actively waiting!  :D

mrpercentage

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #222 on: June 24, 2016, 05:20:42 PM »
not true

I'm in a prime position to do something. I'm not moving yet though because this is just starting.

mrpercentage

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #223 on: June 24, 2016, 05:21:49 PM »
I think I will have a full years pay ready just in time

marty998

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #224 on: June 24, 2016, 05:42:49 PM »
Mate hit the buzzer with half of it now.

If it keeps tanking, you can double down, if it steadies and dead cat bounces then you've at least got a piece of the action.

mrpercentage

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #225 on: June 24, 2016, 05:55:50 PM »
I'm not completely out. Most of my index money is in the two bonds funds below and they are going in the right direction. I have a lot of dividend stocks too


thd7t

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #226 on: June 24, 2016, 06:55:53 PM »
I think I will have a full years pay ready just in time
Some of that timing has to do with your roll-over, though and wasn't planned back in early April.

wienerdog

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #227 on: June 24, 2016, 07:20:15 PM »
As an update my new position is OHI. It was a large sum for me. Up to now my direct stock return for my other positions is 12.99% for a year and some positions have only been held 6 months.

so there you have it
Omega Healthcare REIT. Its name is fitting because it will be the last large purchase for me this year.
It's yield on cost is 6.54%

go ahead and short away.


Code: [Select]
Name               Symbol Last price Change         Shares Cost basis Mkt value Gain Gain % Day's gain Overall return
Omega Healthcare... OHI 32.61          +0.15  (0.46%) 1.00 35.50             32.61 -2.89 -8.14% +0.15          -8.14%

His large sum and last purchase for the year was up for the day!  -8.14% for 2 months isn't a bad return compared to his picks from last April.  I guess that $0.58 dividend on April 28th did make it only a loss of 6.5%.  Not bad compared to the rest of his picks from April 2015.  Seems odd he is always crushing the S&P 500 but any picks that I follow seem to tank.


mrpercentage

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #228 on: June 24, 2016, 08:04:41 PM »
As an update my new position is OHI. It was a large sum for me. Up to now my direct stock return for my other positions is 12.99% for a year and some positions have only been held 6 months.

so there you have it
Omega Healthcare REIT. Its name is fitting because it will be the last large purchase for me this year.
It's yield on cost is 6.54%

go ahead and short away.


Code: [Select]
Name               Symbol Last price Change         Shares Cost basis Mkt value Gain Gain % Day's gain Overall return
Omega Healthcare... OHI 32.61          +0.15  (0.46%) 1.00 35.50             32.61 -2.89 -8.14% +0.15          -8.14%

His large sum and last purchase for the year was up for the day!  -8.14% for 2 months isn't a bad return compared to his picks from last April.  I guess that $0.58 dividend on April 28th did make it only a loss of 6.5%.  Not bad compared to the rest of his picks from April 2015.  Seems odd he is always crushing the S&P 500 but any picks that I follow seem to tank.

Im really starting to like you wiener. Ironically that was up today. Go figure. I am keeping it. Its already paid me once.

Now tell me about this Brexit rally I should be all excited about you permabull! I wana hear all about it!
I have already listed all my positions and even did screen shots of my 457. I feel like Im doing all the work in this relationship. Come on. Show me your wiener positions!

Cyaphas

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #229 on: June 24, 2016, 08:17:20 PM »
Come on. Show me your wiener positions!

I don't think critics often realize how easy it is to criticize than it is to do.

mrpercentage

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #230 on: June 24, 2016, 09:05:53 PM »
In good spirits, wine, and my own curiosity here are the most recent purchases. If I sold I will tell you so:

Conoco
9/23/15
9/30/15
10/7/15
11/4/15
11/25/15
11/30/15
12/4/15
12/7/15
12/11/15
12/24/15
1/15/16
1/26/16
1/28/16
2/11/16
2/25/16
2/11/16
2/25/16
3/4/16
6/6/16

EPR
12/15/15
1/15/16
2/16/16
3/15/16
4/15/16
5/15/16
6/16/16

Exxon

9/25/15
10/2/15
10/9/15
11/6/15
12/8/15
12/15/15
12/18/15
1/8/16
1/21/16
2/5/16
2/22/16
3/7/16
3/15/16
3/21/16
5/3/16
6/15/16
6/24/16

Kinder Morgan

12/11/15

Omega Healthcare Investors

4/15/16
5/16/16
6/15/16

Pinnacle West Capital

1/14/16
1/21/16
1/28/16
3/1/16
3/3/16
4/21/16
5/19/16
6/1/16

Nordic American Tankers
5/31/16
6/7/16
6/10/16
6/17/16

Apple
5/16/16 BUY
5/31/15 SELL


wienerdog

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #231 on: June 24, 2016, 09:11:46 PM »
Come on. Show me your wiener positions!

I don't think critics often realize how easy it is to criticize than it is to do.

Funny when I post  Mr. P's picks from April 2015 that he said he would update in 1 year he says that isn't what he owns then posts his 457 account.  I finally nail him down on OHI at 35.50 and that has matched his other picks from 2015 except Disney.  He cherry picks what he wants to show or when you show him his picks from last year he says that isn't what he owns.  Many have asked since he brags so much to post his individual positions so they can be independently audited.  Crickets....

Update:  Looks like he has posted now but that doesn't match what he was talking about last April so at this point I really don't know what to believe.  Bravo to Mr. P if this one is true!

Now we see who the critic is claiming someone else is a critic.  401K and Vanguard for the past year.

Mr. P doesn't own VTI that I know I just put it in for comparison.
« Last Edit: June 24, 2016, 09:17:38 PM by wienerdog »

mrpercentage

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #232 on: June 24, 2016, 09:17:00 PM »
Come on. Show me your wiener positions!

I don't think critics often realize how easy it is to criticize than it is to do.

Funny when I post  Mr. P's picks from April 2015 that he said he would update in 1 year he says that isn't what he owns then posts his 457 account.  I finally nail him down on OHI at 35.50 and that has matched his other picks from 2015 except Disney.  He cherry picks what he wants to show or when you show him his picks from last year he says that isn't what he owns.  Many have asked since he brags so much to post his individual positions so they can be independently audited.  Crickets....

Now we see who the critic is claiming someone else is a critic.  401K and Vanguard for the past year.

Mr. P doesn't own VTI that I know I just put it in for comparison.

I left out Disney because that is my oldest purchase of the bunch Feb 2015 @92 and I left out Reality Income which is in a different acount that I purchased when it yield 5%. It now yields 3.6%. You don't want me to do the math on that do you? Its fucking huge. I coin tossed between it and Cheveron (that was yielding 6% at the time) and I posted it in this forum.

No cherry picking

mrpercentage

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #233 on: June 24, 2016, 09:38:44 PM »
I also admit that I purposely remove dollar amounts. My amount (although a lot % of annual income to me might seem small to you) Google a police officers wage and its not hard to figure out. Cut off one mans finger and its the same if he is thin or fat. I try not to let the numbers become the distraction because they would be. The % is the level playing field. Nice gains. I have a wicked buzz and only two days left of this nasty work. I can't wait to get my hands on my pension but for the record it would be sitting in a 457 in Vanguard total bond index. End of Report. Good night

wienerdog

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #234 on: June 24, 2016, 09:44:53 PM »
1. Apple-- they are an unstoppable force. For the next 5 years at least. Apple watch is sold out-- proving the doubters wrong once again.
2. Disney-- they get their own outline.
    a. THEY OWN STAR WARS
    b. THEY OWN STAR WARS
    c. They own ESPN
    d. They are building a Disney land in China. China has a billion people. Disney land in China. Again in China.
    e. Every movie they have made still sells at full price. Jungle Book is $25 and they made that shit in the 60's. And people still buy it.
    f. They own ABC15
    g. Its up 13,676% from its opening price and its still going. I made 12.6% in one month. Last month if I remember right.

3. PAH because their CEO came out and said his stock was going to be $200. That took balls and Im betting on it. They have a cash flow model and that works.
4. Ford because despite popular opinion they have watched everyone else die and they are still here.
5. Lack of sleep has VOIDED this comment
6. Dreamworks-- they are an upcoming Disney
7. ESCA-- because they are the only publicly traded archery stock. They own Bear, and that is bad ass.

It doesn't take numbers to recognize greatness

0 out 6 isn't bad from last years predictions....  Could have just lost 2.41% following the S&P 500.  I hope he was heavily weighted on Dreamworks as it only lost 4.01%.

PAH is only down ~65% since April '15.  That's not THAT bad.  You only need a 22 bagger to get to 200 at this point - it could happen.  And what better reason could there be for buying a stock than 'their CEO said it would go up'.  I know nothing of the company but did a quick google - good news MP there's now a class action lawsuit to recover losses.

http://www.rosenlegal.com/cases-861.html

On the bright side ESCA is only down ~40% over that time.  Much better than PAH.   Archery must not be 'in season' at the moment.

The ~15% drops from AAPL and F look downright rosy compared to those two.

Whatever. I don't even have to say how out of context that is. That is simply not what I own. If you dug that deep you are well aware of all of all  that I posted with screenshots

I still like Apple, Ford, and Disney. Ford is the only one that pays high enough to maintain that interest today. Their sales merit a price double what it is today but their are too many cab taking Wall Street idiots who think uber is going to take over the world and I that will ditch my car to rent an autonomous car a hooker with scabbies puked in. No thanks I have a 38 mile trip and kids to pick up

That is very odd.  You sure were happy about those 2 weeks later:

which is drawing down the least?......... BOOM!






Then for some reason you said you would report back to us this April?

Actually I had a 3.8 in college thanks. Look up Ad Hominem. Thanks. Strong interest in philosophy here. Thousands of hours of audiobooks consumed in a long commute because I bought my house at the wrong time and refused to sell.

I will post my gains next year. For the record:
DIS @ 92.54
AAPL @ 125
ESCA @ 15.55
PAH @ 26.63
F @ 15.80

For the last time. I have an employee discount through my mom. No sales load for me.
I will let the numbers speak next April. You have the floor. I'm done here

I am just wondering how you got +12.99% on that since that is the gain you posted above?  Maybe you had different weighting as I just had 1 share each But Disney is only up 9.66% from your position so I am still struggling to get to +12.99%  Did you mean negative?

I still go back to your posts from April 2015.  When did you sell those?  Why does all your purchases start at September?  Seems odd that oil dropped below $50 a barrel in August and all your positions start in oil in September.  What did you do from April to September?  Post all the money you have put in and your returns for the last year.  How hard is that? 

wienerdog

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #235 on: June 24, 2016, 10:00:04 PM »
I also admit that I purposely remove dollar amounts. My amount (although a lot % of annual income to me might seem small to you) Google a police officers wage and its not hard to figure out.

I thank you for your service to the community as in these times it is getting more and more rough and the pay isn't going up.

No amount is small. It all depends on what you live on and what you save.  A bunch of my amount for Vanguard was IRA rollovers from a couple old 401ks that were sitting around.  It is not like I could actually put that much in from salary.  MMM just showed me the numbers and now I use Vanguard and am just a stupid indexer.  Bought in today on foreign etfs that were down to balance things out as I just stick to the plan.  Probably be buying more at the next paycheck in 2 weeks as that is the plan and I am sure they will be down more.

mrpercentage

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #236 on: June 25, 2016, 08:44:09 AM »
October mostly. They (the post you refer to) were liquidated mostly then. It was all in a Ford topic I took down because I let it get too personal. It went into my house and all kinds of nonsense. Nothing like completely honest discussions with random people on the internet.

My head hurts.

% out

------
Edited just to add that projecting those stocks (PAH, ESCA, F, AAPL) as a win for one year later was clearly wrong. God has made it a point to put it in your heart to humble me with it. He likes to remind me who provides and sometimes does it often to not allow blessings to get to my head. Obviously my current holdings reflect building into companies I would like to own that pay a good portion of their earning in dividends. I also have a habit of only listing companies that I am actively investing in. Companies I have invested in (that I don't even watch-- I know that is unthinkable) are often not mentioned because they simply are not on my radar even though they are in my account. Really small trades are not even mentioned. I left out NM and a couple of others as when stacked against my actual investments mean nothing really. Also, anytime I say that I am beating the index Im talking currently. That is not a declaration that those stocks will forever beat the index. It seems so inflammatory around here that I think I will avoid saying it in the future. (okay probably not because Im going to beat the index)

Anyways. There is the explanation. Im going to let this die now but don't you worry. Like the Phoenix a Red Dow thread will rise again.
« Last Edit: June 25, 2016, 06:32:14 PM by mrpercentage »

forummm

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #237 on: June 26, 2016, 10:50:03 AM »
1. Apple-- they are an unstoppable force. For the next 5 years at least. Apple watch is sold out-- proving the doubters wrong once again.
2. Disney-- they get their own outline.
    a. THEY OWN STAR WARS
    b. THEY OWN STAR WARS
    c. They own ESPN
    d. They are building a Disney land in China. China has a billion people. Disney land in China. Again in China.
    e. Every movie they have made still sells at full price. Jungle Book is $25 and they made that shit in the 60's. And people still buy it.
    f. They own ABC15
    g. Its up 13,676% from its opening price and its still going. I made 12.6% in one month. Last month if I remember right.

3. PAH because their CEO came out and said his stock was going to be $200. That took balls and Im betting on it. They have a cash flow model and that works.
4. Ford because despite popular opinion they have watched everyone else die and they are still here.
5. Lack of sleep has VOIDED this comment
6. Dreamworks-- they are an upcoming Disney
7. ESCA-- because they are the only publicly traded archery stock. They own Bear, and that is bad ass.

It doesn't take numbers to recognize greatness

0 out 6 isn't bad from last years predictions....  Could have just lost 2.41% following the S&P 500.  I hope he was heavily weighted on Dreamworks as it only lost 4.01%.

PAH is only down ~65% since April '15.  That's not THAT bad.  You only need a 22 bagger to get to 200 at this point - it could happen.  And what better reason could there be for buying a stock than 'their CEO said it would go up'.  I know nothing of the company but did a quick google - good news MP there's now a class action lawsuit to recover losses.

http://www.rosenlegal.com/cases-861.html

On the bright side ESCA is only down ~40% over that time.  Much better than PAH.   Archery must not be 'in season' at the moment.

The ~15% drops from AAPL and F look downright rosy compared to those two.

Whatever. I don't even have to say how out of context that is. That is simply not what I own. If you dug that deep you are well aware of all of all  that I posted with screenshots

I still like Apple, Ford, and Disney. Ford is the only one that pays high enough to maintain that interest today. Their sales merit a price double what it is today but their are too many cab taking Wall Street idiots who think uber is going to take over the world and I that will ditch my car to rent an autonomous car a hooker with scabbies puked in. No thanks I have a 38 mile trip and kids to pick up

That is very odd.  You sure were happy about those 2 weeks later:

which is drawing down the least?......... BOOM!






Then for some reason you said you would report back to us this April?

Actually I had a 3.8 in college thanks. Look up Ad Hominem. Thanks. Strong interest in philosophy here. Thousands of hours of audiobooks consumed in a long commute because I bought my house at the wrong time and refused to sell.

I will post my gains next year. For the record:
DIS @ 92.54
AAPL @ 125
ESCA @ 15.55
PAH @ 26.63
F @ 15.80

For the last time. I have an employee discount through my mom. No sales load for me.
I will let the numbers speak next April. You have the floor. I'm done here

I am just wondering how you got +12.99% on that since that is the gain you posted above?  Maybe you had different weighting as I just had 1 share each But Disney is only up 9.66% from your position so I am still struggling to get to +12.99%  Did you mean negative?

I still go back to your posts from April 2015.  When did you sell those?  Why does all your purchases start at September?  Seems odd that oil dropped below $50 a barrel in August and all your positions start in oil in September.  What did you do from April to September?  Post all the money you have put in and your returns for the last year.  How hard is that? 

So in April '15 you were talking up:
AAPL --was at 130.7 then. Is 93.4 now. 29% loss
DIS --was at 109.6 then. Is 95.7 now. 13% loss
ESCA --was at 18.5 then. Is 9.8 now.  47% loss
F -- was at 15.8 then. Is 12.5 now. 21% loss
PAH -- was at 26.7 then. Is 8.6 now. 68% loss

Holy crap, that's a lot of losses.

Meanwhile, VOO went from 193.1 to 186.5. 3% loss.

mrpercentage

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #238 on: June 26, 2016, 12:29:48 PM »
Right now Im talking up cash and bonds. You better watch out boy

frugledoc

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #239 on: June 26, 2016, 02:29:20 PM »
Right now Im talking up cash and bonds. You better watch out boy

thank you for the continued entertainment.

I know the day will come when you will finally admit that you cannot beat the market and sell everything and just buy the index. 

Cyaphas

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #240 on: June 26, 2016, 02:34:58 PM »
Right now Im talking up cash and bonds. You better watch out boy

thank you for the continued entertainment.

I know the day will come when you will finally admit that you cannot beat the market and sell everything and just buy the index.

It's so easy to make that statement when the FED has held interest rates at 0.0 for 8 years, the longest time in history.


mrpercentage

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #241 on: June 26, 2016, 06:39:30 PM »
Right now Im talking up cash and bonds. You better watch out boy

thank you for the continued entertainment.

I know the day will come when you will finally admit that you cannot beat the market and sell everything and just buy the index.

Well for the record I am directly responsible for 5 people contributing to VINIX in a 457. I held their hand and walked them through the online sign up process. I am also indirectly responsible for probably another half dozen 457 sign ups. With some I put them in a short term annuities because they couldn't tolerate market volatility. I am responsible for a couple of more moving their funds from highest fees of our options (they were already signed up) to variations of Vanguard. The sad thing is all they needed was a little nudge. Shame on the rep. They obviously overlook the true potential of investors, but then again I had their best interest at heart-- so be it. God looking out

For the short time. I will step out of the way if I see a bus coming. If it lowers my return (it may) then so be it. I did not advise anyone else to that. I recommended staying the course provided they have the years.

forummm

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #242 on: June 27, 2016, 09:41:25 AM »
Right now Im talking up cash and bonds. You better watch out boy

thank you for the continued entertainment.

I know the day will come when you will finally admit that you cannot beat the market and sell everything and just buy the index.

It's so easy to make that statement when the FED has held interest rates at 0.0 for 8 years, the longest time in history.



I'm not sure how indexing being better than market timing relates to interest rates. Even when interest rates change, you can get screwed trying to market time. Perhaps more easily.

forummm

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #243 on: June 27, 2016, 09:42:13 AM »
Right now Im talking up cash and bonds. You better watch out boy

So does that mean we're about to have extreme inflation? Or that stocks will rocket up? Or both?

Tyson

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #244 on: June 27, 2016, 10:19:48 AM »
Right now Im talking up cash and bonds. You better watch out boy

thank you for the continued entertainment.

I know the day will come when you will finally admit that you cannot beat the market and sell everything and just buy the index.

Well for the record I am directly responsible for 5 people contributing to VINIX in a 457. I held their hand and walked them through the online sign up process. I am also indirectly responsible for probably another half dozen 457 sign ups. With some I put them in a short term annuities because they couldn't tolerate market volatility. I am responsible for a couple of more moving their funds from highest fees of our options (they were already signed up) to variations of Vanguard. The sad thing is all they needed was a little nudge. Shame on the rep. They obviously overlook the true potential of investors, but then again I had their best interest at heart-- so be it. God looking out

For the short time. I will step out of the way if I see a bus coming. If it lowers my return (it may) then so be it. I did not advise anyone else to that. I recommended staying the course provided they have the years.

The danger, as I see it, is that you get it right a couple of times in the beginning and then you develop  the mindset of "hey, I can beat/time the market!"  And it's that mindset that's going to get you in to trouble.  You can't pick winners and you can't time the market.   No one can.  It's a fools errand. 

If you are like me, you probably have to learn this the hard way because you think "well just a few simple logical rules will let me get ahead of everyone else because I'm smarter/stronger/more disciplined, etc...".  Here's the thing - when you take losses (and you will), it will be important that you don't let it hurt your pride, causing you to double down on your under-performing timing behavior.  It's important that once you start to have losses that you cut those losses by re-visiting your approach to trying to pick winners and time things.  It's humbling (trust me) but necessary....

Metric Mouse

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #245 on: June 27, 2016, 07:50:17 PM »
Right now Im talking up cash and bonds. You better watch out boy

thank you for the continued entertainment.

I know the day will come when you will finally admit that you cannot beat the market and sell everything and just buy the index.

Well for the record I am directly responsible for 5 people contributing to VINIX in a 457. I held their hand and walked them through the online sign up process. I am also indirectly responsible for probably another half dozen 457 sign ups. With some I put them in a short term annuities because they couldn't tolerate market volatility. I am responsible for a couple of more moving their funds from highest fees of our options (they were already signed up) to variations of Vanguard. The sad thing is all they needed was a little nudge. Shame on the rep. They obviously overlook the true potential of investors, but then again I had their best interest at heart-- so be it. God looking out

For the short time. I will step out of the way if I see a bus coming. If it lowers my return (it may) then so be it. I did not advise anyone else to that. I recommended staying the course provided they have the years.

The danger, as I see it, is that you get it right a couple of times in the beginning and then you develop  the mindset of "hey, I can beat/time the market!"  And it's that mindset that's going to get you in to trouble.  You can't pick winners and you can't time the market.   No one can.  It's a fools errand. 

If you are like me, you probably have to learn this the hard way because you think "well just a few simple logical rules will let me get ahead of everyone else because I'm smarter/stronger/more disciplined, etc...".  Here's the thing - when you take losses (and you will), it will be important that you don't let it hurt your pride, causing you to double down on your under-performing timing behavior.  It's important that once you start to have losses that you cut those losses by re-visiting your approach to trying to pick winners and time things.  It's humbling (trust me) but necessary....

So your argument is "Yeah, you could do well, but, you know, you might not, so, like, don't even try."?  I haven't been following the OP's topic enough to know whether they are doing well or not, clearly one can beat the market with a little bit of interest and some effort. Hell, you could do it by holding a portfolio weighted to BRK. De Maso and Wiener have been beating their benchmarks by 2% annualized for twenty (five?) years, and they post their results and suggestions every month. I would hardly call that track record a 'fools errand'. But I'm perhaps more open to risk, since I have such a long timeline to consider.

2Birds1Stone

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #246 on: June 29, 2016, 01:04:15 PM »
Welp, so much for a 10-20% correction yet again.

I know for a fact that tomorrow the market will either go up or down and I will still own the same shares I do today.

Best of luck on everyone's market timing efforts.

dandarc

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #247 on: June 29, 2016, 01:19:06 PM »
So your argument is "Yeah, you could do well, but, you know, you might not, so, like, don't even try."?  I haven't been following the OP's topic enough to know whether they are doing well or not, clearly one can beat the market with a little bit of interest and some effort. Hell, you could do it by holding a portfolio weighted to BRK. De Maso and Wiener have been beating their benchmarks by 2% annualized for twenty (five?) years, and they post their results and suggestions every month. I would hardly call that track record a 'fools errand'. But I'm perhaps more open to risk, since I have such a long timeline to consider.
I thought the argument was that it is unlikely you can pick stocks / pick managers / market-time successfully over the long term.  The biggest risk, therefore, is convincing yourself that you can and acting accordingly, only to find out that you really can't down the road when there is way more at stake.

fattest_foot

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #248 on: June 29, 2016, 04:04:53 PM »
Welp, so much for a 10-20% correction yet again.

I know for a fact that tomorrow the market will either go up or down and I will still own the same shares I do today.

Best of luck on everyone's market timing efforts.

I thought for sure we'd get a larger drop. But instead, the market remains pretty flat.

Luckily I DCA into an index, so I am able to buy lots of these little dips. They start to add up.

JAYSLOL

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #249 on: June 29, 2016, 07:45:37 PM »
Welp, so much for a 10-20% correction yet again.

I know for a fact that tomorrow the market will either go up or down and I will still own the same shares I do today.

Best of luck on everyone's market timing efforts.

I thought for sure we'd get a larger drop. But instead, the market remains pretty flat.

Luckily I DCA into an index, so I am able to buy lots of these little dips. They start to add up.

Same here, index set on automatic.  I did throw in $1500 early when the market bottomed the other day though.  It was going to be invested soon anyway, might as well be on a down day.