Author Topic: Here it comes-- Red Dow  (Read 122314 times)

peppaz

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #50 on: April 11, 2016, 09:22:11 AM »
May selling coming early? I think so.

I knew I wouldn't have to wait long for 100+ drop in the Dow. I think we will have some more in the not too distant future. I have money parked in bonds waiting for another opening like this one

You do realize we are up ~2,400 points since the 52 week low? I hope you have a crystal ball ;)

Yes I stopped buying stocks 1000 points ago. Im waiting for the 5-10% drop that is coming. I know it is. Can't tell you exactly when other than soon enough.

So let me get this straight.... You sat out a 5-10% runup, so you could wait for a 5-10% drop to buy back in.  You're not exactly making the case for your investment policy.

No I quit buying stocks and started buying bonds. I still own the stocks I had. I will rotate those bonds into stocks when they drop. Its called buying low. Im not selling.


Time in the market beats timing the market - every time.

No one can really time the market.

Edit: Obviously I'm speaking in broad terms. People do it. Most can't. When they do, it's largely a fluke.
« Last Edit: April 11, 2016, 05:01:32 PM by peppaz »

Metric Mouse

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #51 on: April 11, 2016, 09:52:09 AM »
True. No one has ever outperformed the market. Ever. In any case. Ever. I don't see why anyone would think differently.

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #52 on: April 11, 2016, 10:11:45 AM »
True. No one has ever outperformed the market. Ever. In any case. Ever. I don't see why anyone would think differently.
Market timing isn't the only way that people beat the market. Fortunate stock picking combined with a buy and hold strategy could beat the market by more than market timing.

forummm

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #53 on: April 11, 2016, 10:20:59 AM »
True. No one has ever outperformed the market. Ever. In any case. Ever. I don't see why anyone would think differently.

Timing the market is different than value investing as a full time job (AKA Buffett).

May selling coming early? I think so.

I knew I wouldn't have to wait long for 100+ drop in the Dow. I think we will have some more in the not too distant future. I have money parked in bonds waiting for another opening like this one

You do realize we are up ~2,400 points since the 52 week low? I hope you have a crystal ball ;)

Yes I stopped buying stocks 1000 points ago. Im waiting for the 5-10% drop that is coming. I know it is. Can't tell you exactly when other than soon enough.

So let me get this straight.... You sat out a 5-10% runup, so you could wait for a 5-10% drop to buy back in.  You're not exactly making the case for your investment policy.

No I quit buying stocks and started buying bonds. I still own the stocks I had. I will rotate those bonds into stocks when they drop. Its called buying low. Im not selling.


Time in the market beats timing the market - every time.

No one can really time the market.

A little overbroad. Someone somewhere has in at least one instance beaten the market through market timing. It's just more likely you'll lose out in the long run (and short run too).

Travis

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #54 on: April 11, 2016, 11:05:58 AM »
True. No one has ever outperformed the market. Ever. In any case. Ever. I don't see why anyone would think differently.

Timing the market is different than value investing as a full time job (AKA Buffett).

May selling coming early? I think so.

I knew I wouldn't have to wait long for 100+ drop in the Dow. I think we will have some more in the not too distant future. I have money parked in bonds waiting for another opening like this one

You do realize we are up ~2,400 points since the 52 week low? I hope you have a crystal ball ;)

Yes I stopped buying stocks 1000 points ago. Im waiting for the 5-10% drop that is coming. I know it is. Can't tell you exactly when other than soon enough.

So let me get this straight.... You sat out a 5-10% runup, so you could wait for a 5-10% drop to buy back in.  You're not exactly making the case for your investment policy.

No I quit buying stocks and started buying bonds. I still own the stocks I had. I will rotate those bonds into stocks when they drop. Its called buying low. Im not selling.


Time in the market beats timing the market - every time.

No one can really time the market.

A little overbroad. Someone somewhere has in at least one instance beaten the market through market timing. It's just more likely you'll lose out in the long run (and short run too).

In the grand scheme its an insignificant number of folks who can do it, and so far there is little in the way of techniques to say how they do it that can't be explained by a big dose of luck.

dividendman

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #55 on: April 11, 2016, 11:26:36 AM »
Also, many of the very successful investors don't just buy small positions on the market. Many, if not most, of them buy large enough stakes to influence how the company operates or buy entire businesses. This is very different from buying small positions.

James

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #56 on: April 11, 2016, 11:33:35 AM »
I initially thought that this post was a belated April's Fools Day prank but he's really serious...........


Yeah, you get used to it...

NoraLenderbee

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #57 on: April 11, 2016, 12:44:30 PM »
Dude even a groundhog can see spring coming.

Anyone can predict spring coming because it comes every year at the same time.

bobechs

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #58 on: April 11, 2016, 12:59:06 PM »
So, looking back over the last five weeks since mr.percentage had his flash of red-tinted prescience, how's that ol' Dow looking:

Black: it's the new red.


wienerdog

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #59 on: April 11, 2016, 03:59:57 PM »
1. Apple-- they are an unstoppable force. For the next 5 years at least. Apple watch is sold out-- proving the doubters wrong once again.
2. Disney-- they get their own outline.
    a. THEY OWN STAR WARS
    b. THEY OWN STAR WARS
    c. They own ESPN
    d. They are building a Disney land in China. China has a billion people. Disney land in China. Again in China.
    e. Every movie they have made still sells at full price. Jungle Book is $25 and they made that shit in the 60's. And people still buy it.
    f. They own ABC15
    g. Its up 13,676% from its opening price and its still going. I made 12.6% in one month. Last month if I remember right.

3. PAH because their CEO came out and said his stock was going to be $200. That took balls and Im betting on it. They have a cash flow model and that works.
4. Ford because despite popular opinion they have watched everyone else die and they are still here.
5. Lack of sleep has VOIDED this comment
6. Dreamworks-- they are an upcoming Disney
7. ESCA-- because they are the only publicly traded archery stock. They own Bear, and that is bad ass.

It doesn't take numbers to recognize greatness

0 out 6 isn't bad from last years predictions....  Could have just lost 2.41% following the S&P 500.  I hope he was heavily weighted on Dreamworks as it only lost 4.01%.

 

Fireball

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #60 on: April 11, 2016, 04:23:10 PM »
LOL. I give him credit for at least putting himself out there to be skewered.

smedleyb

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #61 on: April 11, 2016, 04:37:08 PM »
1. Apple-- they are an unstoppable force. For the next 5 years at least. Apple watch is sold out-- proving the doubters wrong once again.
2. Disney-- they get their own outline.
    a. THEY OWN STAR WARS
    b. THEY OWN STAR WARS
    c. They own ESPN
    d. They are building a Disney land in China. China has a billion people. Disney land in China. Again in China.
    e. Every movie they have made still sells at full price. Jungle Book is $25 and they made that shit in the 60's. And people still buy it.
    f. They own ABC15
    g. Its up 13,676% from its opening price and its still going. I made 12.6% in one month. Last month if I remember right.

3. PAH because their CEO came out and said his stock was going to be $200. That took balls and Im betting on it. They have a cash flow model and that works.
4. Ford because despite popular opinion they have watched everyone else die and they are still here.
5. Lack of sleep has VOIDED this comment
6. Dreamworks-- they are an upcoming Disney
7. ESCA-- because they are the only publicly traded archery stock. They own Bear, and that is bad ass.

It doesn't take numbers to recognize greatness

0 out 6 isn't bad from last years predictions....  Could have just lost 2.41% following the S&P 500.  I hope he was heavily weighted on Dreamworks as it only lost 4.01%.

For a guy who hates buying market tops, Mr. Percentage appears to like recommending the purchase of stocks topping out.

Unlike Mr. P's hunches, my own bearish prognostications -- made here on Friday after much thoughtful deliberation -- are rooted in a confluence of observable market events, from insolvent commodity stocks, wild fluctuations in global currencies, the failure of negative interest rate polices, declining treasury yields, and a dismal earnings outlook for the vast majority of companies this quarter and next.

More specifically, today was a soul crushing day for the bulls, reversing yet another 150 point gain by the close, and I feel the floodgates to hell have been pushed wide open.  A storm is brewing in the equity markets, and I don't mean a measly 100 points of downside on Dow.  A 20-30% swoon lower from these levels over the coming weeks seems immanent, IMO.   My gambling account is positioned accordingly, 100% short via select puts. 

(As always, anyone basing any long term investment decisions on advice given on a message board is an abject moron who deserves to be separated from his/her money.)


« Last Edit: April 11, 2016, 04:49:53 PM by smedleyb »

peppaz

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #62 on: April 11, 2016, 04:55:02 PM »
I'm looking to be in the market for another 25 years before retirement, and then even after, so if and when it tanks, the only thing I do differently is invest more during the lull.

It's not worth it, for me, to miss out on a collective few years of investing and time in the market because everyone is calling for the next great crash. Slow and steady, max out my pre and post tax retirement accounts, keep buying broad indexes and some stocks for fun in brokerage accounts, and that's it for me. Rebalance when necessary.

I'm not a market genius, so I won't try to play the market like one. It just seems to me that most people who claim to be market geniuses lose themselves and others lots of money (broadly speaking)- especially when comparing index fund performance vs actively managed funds over the last 30 or 40 years.

smedleyb

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #63 on: April 11, 2016, 05:09:42 PM »
I'm looking to be in the market for another 25 years before retirement, and then even after, so if and when it tanks, the only thing I do differently is invest more during the lull.

It's not worth it, for me, to miss out on a collective few years of investing and time in the market because everyone is calling for the next great crash. Slow and steady, max out my pre and post tax retirement accounts, keep buying broad indexes and some stocks for fun in brokerage accounts, and that's it for me. Rebalance when necessary.

I'm not a market genius, so I won't try to play the market like one. It just seems to me that most people who claim to be market geniuses lose themselves and others lots of money (broadly speaking)- especially when comparing index fund performance vs actively managed funds over the last 30 or 40 years.

Nailed it.

But in a thread created to gossip about short term and ultimately unpredictable price movements, I felt compelled to give my 2 cents on the current state of the market.  And that's what that info is worth -- 2 cents. 

peppaz

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #64 on: April 11, 2016, 05:18:22 PM »

Nailed it.

But in a thread created to gossip about short term and ultimately unpredictable price movements, I felt compelled to give my 2 cents on the current state of the market.  And that's what that info is worth -- 2 cents. 

Of course, and it's appreciated. I just get frustrated with doomsayer after doomsayer predicting the crash every month since the 2007. (not on this board, publications like zerohedge or websites that try to sell you gold after their market implosion predictions week after week.)

Are the fundamentals of the world economy strong? Nope! Not all of them. Not most of them even. But sitting out of the market for years trying to weather a storm that hasn't come to pass seems less palatable to me than just dealing with it smartly when it does happen.

The only lesson I ever needed on investment strategy is watching my Dad move his retirement/deferred comp portfolio from stocks to CASH directly after the 2007 crash. Poor guy.

Retire-Canada

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #65 on: April 11, 2016, 06:07:38 PM »


Yup. Looks pretty soul crushing.

I'm sharpening my machete and practicing my crossbow marksmanship. It feels like the zombie apocalypse is just around the bend. ;)

Retire-Canada

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #66 on: April 11, 2016, 06:19:22 PM »
What would be sweet is a faux brokerage game that anyone can join [once per MMM forum account]. Everyone gets the same monthly savings $$ to invest as they see fit. It's real-time with actual market results and anyone else in the game can look up your results and compare them...maybe with a one month rolling black out so you can't mimic someone else's trades.

That way all the market timing magicians, cunning value investors and stubborn buy/holders could put their money where their mouthes are.

Travis

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #67 on: April 11, 2016, 07:34:52 PM »
What would be sweet is a faux brokerage game that anyone can join [once per MMM forum account]. Everyone gets the same monthly savings $$ to invest as they see fit. It's real-time with actual market results and anyone else in the game can look up your results and compare them...maybe with a one month rolling black out so you can't mimic someone else's trades.

That way all the market timing magicians, cunning value investors and stubborn buy/holders could put their money where their mouthes are.

We played a similar game in a high school math class.  We were given a starting amount and a copy of a newspaper with stock prices.  We played for a month and compared the results.  I'd love to play an app that let's you do the same to include simulating trading costs and compare the results with other players.

forummm

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #68 on: April 12, 2016, 07:11:49 AM »
What would be sweet is a faux brokerage game that anyone can join [once per MMM forum account]. Everyone gets the same monthly savings $$ to invest as they see fit. It's real-time with actual market results and anyone else in the game can look up your results and compare them...maybe with a one month rolling black out so you can't mimic someone else's trades.

That way all the market timing magicians, cunning value investors and stubborn buy/holders could put their money where their mouthes are.

We played a similar game in a high school math class.  We were given a starting amount and a copy of a newspaper with stock prices.  We played for a month and compared the results.  I'd love to play an app that let's you do the same to include simulating trading costs and compare the results with other players.

If someone set it up I might play.

2Birds1Stone

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #69 on: April 12, 2016, 07:20:16 AM »
We did do this here a few months back

dividendman

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #70 on: April 12, 2016, 11:19:36 AM »
1. Apple-- they are an unstoppable force. For the next 5 years at least. Apple watch is sold out-- proving the doubters wrong once again.
2. Disney-- they get their own outline.
    a. THEY OWN STAR WARS
    b. THEY OWN STAR WARS
    c. They own ESPN
    d. They are building a Disney land in China. China has a billion people. Disney land in China. Again in China.
    e. Every movie they have made still sells at full price. Jungle Book is $25 and they made that shit in the 60's. And people still buy it.
    f. They own ABC15
    g. Its up 13,676% from its opening price and its still going. I made 12.6% in one month. Last month if I remember right.

3. PAH because their CEO came out and said his stock was going to be $200. That took balls and Im betting on it. They have a cash flow model and that works.
4. Ford because despite popular opinion they have watched everyone else die and they are still here.
5. Lack of sleep has VOIDED this comment
6. Dreamworks-- they are an upcoming Disney
7. ESCA-- because they are the only publicly traded archery stock. They own Bear, and that is bad ass.

It doesn't take numbers to recognize greatness

0 out 6 isn't bad from last years predictions....  Could have just lost 2.41% following the S&P 500.  I hope he was heavily weighted on Dreamworks as it only lost 4.01%.

Hrm... perhaps this means I should change my asset allocation from 50% VTI, 30% VEU and 20% BND to 100% shorts on whatever Mr. P picks... it's a sure winner!

Retire-Canada

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #71 on: April 12, 2016, 11:24:49 AM »

Hrm... perhaps this means I should change my asset allocation from 50% VTI, 30% VEU and 20% BND to 100% shorts on whatever Mr. P picks... it's a sure winner!

It's a proven concept: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cKUvKE3bQlY

I'm a red panda

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #72 on: April 12, 2016, 12:37:45 PM »

We played a similar game in a high school math class.  We were given a starting amount and a copy of a newspaper with stock prices.  We played for a month and compared the results.  I'd love to play an app that let's you do the same to include simulating trading costs and compare the results with other players.

I hated this part of economics in high school.  We were required to make a certain number of "trades" during the six-weeks period, so buy and hold wasn't allowed.  Almost everyone lost money, so while we "understood" how the stock market worked, pretty much everyone left with a negative opinion of it.

protostache

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #73 on: April 12, 2016, 12:43:56 PM »

We played a similar game in a high school math class.  We were given a starting amount and a copy of a newspaper with stock prices.  We played for a month and compared the results.  I'd love to play an app that let's you do the same to include simulating trading costs and compare the results with other players.

I hated this part of economics in high school.  We were required to make a certain number of "trades" during the six-weeks period, so buy and hold wasn't allowed.  Almost everyone lost money, so while we "understood" how the stock market worked, pretty much everyone left with a negative opinion of it.

We played a similar game in US History class. Everyone started out with a certain amount of money in the year 1926 (I think? mid-20's). Everyone could make one trade a month. The game lasted through 1930, and the person with the most money at the end won.

I think only me and one other person remembered to cash out in mid-1929.

iamlindoro

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #74 on: April 12, 2016, 12:44:20 PM »
Hrm... perhaps this means I should change my asset allocation from 50% VTI, 30% VEU and 20% BND to 100% shorts on whatever Mr. P picks... it's a sure winner!

When will the ETF be ready?

smedleyb

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #75 on: April 13, 2016, 05:37:11 AM »
Here it comes -- a sharp stick in the eye of every wanna be Kodiak.  lol!

Gambling account off a quick 1.25% based on pre-market action.  Trading stops set a little higher but doubt I survive this market Pamplona beyond today or tomorrow.  At least at a real casino, I would be offered several drinks and a scrumptious buffet for my time.  Instead, I get to do the MMM walk of market timing shame as I bite into a shitty bagel and sip from a cold cup of coffee.  Fuck you mister market, fuck you!!!




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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #76 on: April 13, 2016, 09:21:33 AM »
Here it comes -- a sharp stick in the eye of every wanna be Kodiak.  lol!

Gambling account off a quick 1.25% based on pre-market action.  Trading stops set a little higher but doubt I survive this market Pamplona beyond today or tomorrow.  At least at a real casino, I would be offered several drinks and a scrumptious buffet for my time.  Instead, I get to do the MMM walk of market timing shame as I bite into a shitty bagel and sip from a cold cup of coffee.  Fuck you mister market, fuck you!!!

Yes, it took several years of pain when I was arrogant and naive, similar to Mr Percentage and yourself, before I was realised I should just index.   

Now, I can sit back and enjoy the ups and the downs of the market and just keep investing.
« Last Edit: April 13, 2016, 09:23:10 AM by frugledoc »

JetBlast

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #77 on: April 13, 2016, 01:45:50 PM »

We played a similar game in a high school math class.  We were given a starting amount and a copy of a newspaper with stock prices.  We played for a month and compared the results.  I'd love to play an app that let's you do the same to include simulating trading costs and compare the results with other players.

I hated this part of economics in high school.  We were required to make a certain number of "trades" during the six-weeks period, so buy and hold wasn't allowed.  Almost everyone lost money, so while we "understood" how the stock market worked, pretty much everyone left with a negative opinion of it.

We also played a similar game in high school economics but didn't have the required trades. Buy an hold was allowed for the couple months the game lasted. The problem was the game ran March-May 2000. You know, right when the bubble burst. Knowing little at the time about the market I picked different industries and went with analyst ratings. I had Enron and Global Crossing!  The only thing that worked for my portfolio was the one industry I obsessively followed, the airlines, as I chose Frontier Airlines to capitalize on the meltdown United was having due to labor negotiations.

One of my friends won the contest with stocks he picked by looking around his room. Coca-cola, Texas Instruments, Proctor & Gamble, 3M etc... A great defensive portfolio at exactly the right time.

dividendman

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #78 on: April 14, 2016, 11:48:37 AM »
I feel it's my duty to bump this thread every day the market goes up...

forummm

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #79 on: April 14, 2016, 12:24:29 PM »
I feel it's my duty to bump this thread every day the market goes up...

By going up further, it's just increasing the amount it's going to come down for next month's dip.

frugledoc

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #80 on: April 14, 2016, 02:11:44 PM »
I feel it's my duty to bump this thread every day the market goes up...

By going up further, it's just increasing the amount it's going to come down for next month's dip.

And then Mr P can come back to the thread and tell us all how he called it.

mrpercentage

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #81 on: April 14, 2016, 06:13:24 PM »
I already said, I believe the rally will end early this year (thats before May). I told you Earth Day. Its not Earth Day is it? I also admitted that I could be wrong. Im a little longer sighted than some. I did get faked out a little. Triple digit drops get my attention but if it trends it goes down fast. I still think its coming, but I didn't pull the trigger for any moves yet. Im looking for a 300-500 point drop in a day.

The market as a whole is much harder than a stock. Also my working hours are changing so I will be working 100% of the time the market is open. Im going to around here a lot less too.

Bump away

Why don't you bump me telling you to buy BRK.B right now!! when it was $125 a month ago? Bump that would you because its $141 now


mrpercentage

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #82 on: April 14, 2016, 06:29:10 PM »
True. No one has ever outperformed the market. Ever. In any case. Ever. I don't see why anyone would think differently.
Market timing isn't the only way that people beat the market. Fortunate stock picking combined with a buy and hold strategy could beat the market by more than market timing.

here is the 457 I am timing


mrpercentage

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #83 on: April 14, 2016, 06:35:21 PM »
Here is my Buffett investing-- Direct stock purchasing strait from Mint-- the 2% is Conoco


mrpercentage

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #84 on: April 14, 2016, 06:45:56 PM »
Maybe I should buy the index. I could have 1.8%!! What was I thinking?

WhoDey

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #85 on: April 14, 2016, 07:29:37 PM »
True. No one has ever outperformed the market. Ever. In any case. Ever. I don't see why anyone would think differently.
Market timing isn't the only way that people beat the market. Fortunate stock picking combined with a buy and hold strategy could beat the market by more than market timing.

here is the 457 I am timing



Looks like you're making a killing... lol

mrpercentage

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #86 on: April 14, 2016, 07:37:36 PM »
Looks like you're making a killing... lol
You look like you are doing alright

Only my direct stock purchases are killing anything. I was just showing that being active is working for me. My direct stocks collectively yield over 4% and I have a big purchase going through now. I will let them know when the 15% stake in my portfolio is done so they can short it. Its a new holding. The index is different, Im buying bonds right now-- for now

tyir

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #87 on: April 14, 2016, 08:41:52 PM »
I already said, I believe the rally will end early this year (thats before May). I told you Earth Day. Its not Earth Day is it? I also admitted that I could be wrong. Im a little longer sighted than some. I did get faked out a little. Triple digit drops get my attention but if it trends it goes down fast. I still think its coming, but I didn't pull the trigger for any moves yet. Im looking for a 300-500 point drop in a day.

The market as a whole is much harder than a stock. Also my working hours are changing so I will be working 100% of the time the market is open. Im going to around here a lot less too.

Bump away

Why don't you bump me telling you to buy BRK.B right now!! when it was $125 a month ago? Bump that would you because its $141 now

You first posted the morning of April 5th, where the dow was at 17643. Looks like we're at 17923, so about 300 up from your OP. If it drops 300 in a day that would be a trigger for you to buy? It would just be at the level you started this thread at a couple weeks ago.
Sorry, I don't get how this is long sighted...

mrpercentage

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #88 on: April 14, 2016, 09:17:39 PM »

You first posted the morning of April 5th, where the dow was at 17643. Looks like we're at 17923, so about 300 up from your OP. If it drops 300 in a day that would be a trigger for you to buy? It would just be at the level you started this thread at a couple weeks ago.
Sorry, I don't get how this is long sighted...

Its not buying tops. I don't have to get the bottom every time. I just don't buy the tops. Perhaps this is no longer the volatile market it was just two short months ago and the whole year before that. I mean we had a good month lets throw in all our money and be like everyone else because the castle goes to the clouds man. If you all were telling me to sell I would be buying. It might drop 1000 points who knows. The market always goes up eventually but unless we are in for a surprise record year with no regard for seasons-- its coming down some soon so why buy now? Its not like bonds don't pay interest-- so my interest plus my rotation into stocks must beat the market (the 500).

Its about being ahead of the curve and that usually means looking like a fool for the moment. Maybe I am one, who knows.


frugledoc

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #89 on: April 14, 2016, 11:38:31 PM »
Well, if nothing else you are a great contrarian indicator.

Trevor Reznik

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #90 on: April 15, 2016, 12:18:42 AM »
Its not buying tops. I don't have to get the bottom every time. I just don't buy the tops. Perhaps this is no longer the volatile market it was just two short months ago and the whole year before that. I mean we had a good month lets throw in all our money and be like everyone else because the castle goes to the clouds man. If you all were telling me to sell I would be buying. It might drop 1000 points who knows. The market always goes up eventually but unless we are in for a surprise record year with no regard for seasons-- its coming down some soon so why buy now? Its not like bonds don't pay interest-- so my interest plus my rotation into stocks must beat the market (the 500).

Its about being ahead of the curve and that usually means looking like a fool for the moment. Maybe I am one, who knows.

Sounds overcomplicated to me.  All you need to do is invest a set amount into the index at regular intervals and reinvest the dividends, that automatically sees you buying more units when prices are low and less when prices are high.  You will automatically beat the index, without even thinking about it.

James

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #91 on: April 18, 2016, 11:56:52 AM »
Just read a good article: http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2016-04-18/if-you-re-a-contrarian-you-re-like-everyone-else


"Remember, most of the time, the contrarian investor is wrong. The vast majority of the time, the market is the crowd. Hence, making a bet against the crowd means you are fighting the market. The majority of investing dollars are the fuel that moves stocks and bonds along their long-term, multiyear trends. It is only when sentiment reaches terrific extremes that taking a position opposite the crowd can potentially produce a huge score. Even then, the timing is very, very tricky."


Being contrarian will lose you all your money if you are always contrarian. In reality, you need to be contrarian only at the extremes, and with the crowd in the middle. A much harder task than simply being "contrarian"...

forummm

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #92 on: April 18, 2016, 12:14:39 PM »
Just read a good article: http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2016-04-18/if-you-re-a-contrarian-you-re-like-everyone-else


"Remember, most of the time, the contrarian investor is wrong. The vast majority of the time, the market is the crowd. Hence, making a bet against the crowd means you are fighting the market. The majority of investing dollars are the fuel that moves stocks and bonds along their long-term, multiyear trends. It is only when sentiment reaches terrific extremes that taking a position opposite the crowd can potentially produce a huge score. Even then, the timing is very, very tricky."


Being contrarian will lose you all your money if you are always contrarian. In reality, you need to be contrarian only at the extremes, and with the crowd in the middle. A much harder task than simply being "contrarian"...

So if everyone thinks being a "contrarian" is good, and this article is going against that belief, can the article be right?

mrpercentage

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #93 on: April 18, 2016, 12:21:59 PM »
As an update my new position is OHI. It was a large sum for me. Up to now my direct stock return for my other positions is 12.99% for a year and some positions have only been held 6 months.

so there you have it
Omega Healthcare REIT. Its name is fitting because it will be the last large purchase for me this year.
It's yield on cost is 6.54%

go ahead and short away.


Jack

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #94 on: April 18, 2016, 12:55:43 PM »
I've been following AMD for a while now and thought back in January/February it'd be a buy if it hit $2.00 (I'm bullish because Zen is coming at the end of the year). It did drop to 2.00, I didn't buy because I was too busy buying VTSAX in my IRA, and now it's up in the 2.70 - 2.90 range. I know I should resist the urge to market-time, but knowing that I would have succeeded in that instance makes it hard. : (

Mr.GrowingMustache

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #95 on: April 18, 2016, 01:53:55 PM »
I've been following AMD for a while now and thought back in January/February it'd be a buy if it hit $2.00 (I'm bullish because Zen is coming at the end of the year). It did drop to 2.00, I didn't buy because I was too busy buying VTSAX in my IRA, and now it's up in the 2.70 - 2.90 range. I know I should resist the urge to market-time, but knowing that I would have succeeded in that instance makes it hard. : (

I have been following AMD and it's volatility for years now... and I have "timed" it. I got burned once, but overall I've made $$ off the stock. I also resisted the urge to buy at those sub $2.00 levels! Overall, you can't time it reliably.

I bought it at $2.50, way back when (1+ year) and just let it ride. It's at +10% now. I am expecting $3.50 territory in the future, but I don't sweat it since I bought it at "value price", and I'm going to let it ride. I think they will have a hit with the new 14nm Radeon GPU chipsets, and opening the FreeSync technology will eat into Nvidia's market share.

Have in mind I only have $2500 invested, so this "timing" is more of a hobby exercise :)


.... back on the rails

Terrestrial

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #96 on: April 18, 2016, 02:37:49 PM »
1. Apple-- they are an unstoppable force. For the next 5 years at least. Apple watch is sold out-- proving the doubters wrong once again.
2. Disney-- they get their own outline.
    a. THEY OWN STAR WARS
    b. THEY OWN STAR WARS
    c. They own ESPN
    d. They are building a Disney land in China. China has a billion people. Disney land in China. Again in China.
    e. Every movie they have made still sells at full price. Jungle Book is $25 and they made that shit in the 60's. And people still buy it.
    f. They own ABC15
    g. Its up 13,676% from its opening price and its still going. I made 12.6% in one month. Last month if I remember right.

3. PAH because their CEO came out and said his stock was going to be $200. That took balls and Im betting on it. They have a cash flow model and that works.
4. Ford because despite popular opinion they have watched everyone else die and they are still here.
5. Lack of sleep has VOIDED this comment
6. Dreamworks-- they are an upcoming Disney
7. ESCA-- because they are the only publicly traded archery stock. They own Bear, and that is bad ass.

It doesn't take numbers to recognize greatness

0 out 6 isn't bad from last years predictions....  Could have just lost 2.41% following the S&P 500.  I hope he was heavily weighted on Dreamworks as it only lost 4.01%.

PAH is only down ~65% since April '15.  That's not THAT bad.  You only need a 22 bagger to get to 200 at this point - it could happen.  And what better reason could there be for buying a stock than 'their CEO said it would go up'.  I know nothing of the company but did a quick google - good news MP there's now a class action lawsuit to recover losses.

http://www.rosenlegal.com/cases-861.html

On the bright side ESCA is only down ~40% over that time.  Much better than PAH.   Archery must not be 'in season' at the moment.

The ~15% drops from AAPL and F look downright rosy compared to those two.





« Last Edit: April 18, 2016, 03:00:41 PM by Terrestrial »

fattest_foot

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #97 on: April 18, 2016, 03:30:38 PM »
I hated this part of economics in high school.  We were required to make a certain number of "trades" during the six-weeks period, so buy and hold wasn't allowed.  Almost everyone lost money, so while we "understood" how the stock market worked, pretty much everyone left with a negative opinion of it.

I had the complete opposite experience. Back in 5th grade our math class had us break up into small teams and work with an imaginary $100,000 for 10 weeks. Apparently it was part of a broader competition within the entire state of Maryland.

Well, unfortunately, not only did we win the competition for our class, we also won it for the entire state.

Based on an article about it, we mostly bought Micron Technologies and Microsoft. The article actually has some great quotes, and shows that we were quite wise on the market.

Quote
The students had wanted to invest in Merck, a pharmaceutical company. [The teacher] advised against it, saying pharmaceutical stocks weren't preforming [sic] well. The students listened. About three weeks later, Merck came out with a chicken pox vaccine and Merck stock soared.

Micron Technologies, a computer chip company from Boise, Idaho, turned out to be the company that propelled [the] team into first place. Team members claim pure luck made them the state leaders.

"It's too tough, and it'll give you gray hairs. It'll give you an ulcer," said 11-year-old Jennifer.

"There are too many numbers, it's confusing," 11-year-old Emily said. "If you put an extra zero, you get in really big trouble. If I were in the stock market now, I'd be bankrupt."
« Last Edit: April 18, 2016, 03:33:22 PM by fattest_foot »

dandarc

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #98 on: April 18, 2016, 03:41:04 PM »
11-year olds with ulcers.  That's no good.

iamlindoro

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #99 on: April 18, 2016, 03:53:54 PM »
11-year olds with ulcers.  That's no good.

So you're saying I should be long in pharma stocks?