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Learning, Sharing, and Teaching => Investor Alley => Topic started by: mrpercentage on April 05, 2016, 05:00:18 AM

Title: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: mrpercentage on April 05, 2016, 05:00:18 AM
May selling coming early? I think so.

I knew I wouldn't have to wait long for 100+ drop in the Dow. I think we will have some more in the not too distant future. I have money parked in bonds waiting for another opening like this one
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: Metric Mouse on April 05, 2016, 05:04:22 AM
I vaguely miss the excitement of watching the market work its way up and down every week...
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: mrpercentage on April 05, 2016, 05:16:59 AM
I vaguely miss the excitement of watching the market work its way up and down every week...

Yet you spend a good amount of time in financial forums. You are the most interested not interested internet ghost I have ever met.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: Metric Mouse on April 05, 2016, 05:52:07 AM
I vaguely miss the excitement of watching the market work its way up and down every week...

Yet you spend a good amount of time in financial forums. You are the most interested not interested internet ghost I have ever met.

Perhaps the evolution of entertainment?
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: mrpercentage on April 05, 2016, 06:01:30 AM
I vaguely miss the excitement of watching the market work its way up and down every week...

Yet you spend a good amount of time in financial forums. You are the most interested not interested internet ghost I have ever met.

Perhaps the evolution of entertainment?

Maybe. I think its a little less creepy than bombing Squawk Box with Twitter comments. I did that for a while. I had to delete my Twitter account. There is something creepy about it. I did get a few anchors to respond though. When I asked what he kept looking at on the laptop, Carl Quintanilla said "MineCraft."  I cried. That was great
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: 2Birds1Stone on April 05, 2016, 06:01:59 AM
May selling coming early? I think so.

I knew I wouldn't have to wait long for 100+ drop in the Dow. I think we will have some more in the not too distant future. I have money parked in bonds waiting for another opening like this one

You do realize we are up ~2,400 points since the 52 week low? I hope you have a crystal ball ;)
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: mrpercentage on April 05, 2016, 06:08:04 AM
May selling coming early? I think so.

I knew I wouldn't have to wait long for 100+ drop in the Dow. I think we will have some more in the not too distant future. I have money parked in bonds waiting for another opening like this one

You do realize we are up ~2,400 points since the 52 week low? I hope you have a crystal ball ;)

Yes I stopped buying stocks 1000 points ago. Im waiting for the 5-10% drop that is coming. I know it is. Can't tell you exactly when other than soon enough.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: Metric Mouse on April 05, 2016, 06:12:31 AM
I vaguely miss the excitement of watching the market work its way up and down every week...

Yet you spend a good amount of time in financial forums. You are the most interested not interested internet ghost I have ever met.

Perhaps the evolution of entertainment?

Maybe. I think its a little less creepy than bombing Squawk Box with Twitter comments. I did that for a while. I had to delete my Twitter account. There is something creepy about it. I did get a few anchors to respond though. When I asked what he kept looking at on the laptop, Carl Quintanilla said "MineCraft."  I cried. That was great

I have literally no idea what any of that means... I don't twitter or minecraft...
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: mrpercentage on April 05, 2016, 06:15:28 AM
I vaguely miss the excitement of watching the market work its way up and down every week...

Yet you spend a good amount of time in financial forums. You are the most interested not interested internet ghost I have ever met.


Perhaps the evolution of entertainment?

Maybe. I think its a little less creepy than bombing Squawk Box with Twitter comments. I did that for a while. I had to delete my Twitter account. There is something creepy about it. I did get a few anchors to respond though. When I asked what he kept looking at on the laptop, Carl Quintanilla said "MineCraft."  I cried. That was great

I have literally no idea what any of that means... I don't twitter or minecraft...

Its about the evolution of entertainment man.. its not always about you. I know thats hard to believe but its true
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: shotgunwilly on April 05, 2016, 06:38:08 AM
May selling coming early? I think so.

I knew I wouldn't have to wait long for 100+ drop in the Dow. I think we will have some more in the not too distant future. I have money parked in bonds waiting for another opening like this one

You do realize we are up ~2,400 points since the 52 week low? I hope you have a crystal ball ;)

Yes I stopped buying stocks 1000 points ago. Im waiting for the 5-10% drop that is coming. I know it is. Can't tell you exactly when other than soon enough.

So let me get this straight.... You sat out a 5-10% runup, so you could wait for a 5-10% drop to buy back in.  You're not exactly making the case for your investment policy.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: mrpercentage on April 05, 2016, 06:44:51 AM
May selling coming early? I think so.

I knew I wouldn't have to wait long for 100+ drop in the Dow. I think we will have some more in the not too distant future. I have money parked in bonds waiting for another opening like this one

You do realize we are up ~2,400 points since the 52 week low? I hope you have a crystal ball ;)

Yes I stopped buying stocks 1000 points ago. Im waiting for the 5-10% drop that is coming. I know it is. Can't tell you exactly when other than soon enough.

So let me get this straight.... You sat out a 5-10% runup, so you could wait for a 5-10% drop to buy back in.  You're not exactly making the case for your investment policy.

No I quit buying stocks and started buying bonds. I still own the stocks I had. I will rotate those bonds into stocks when they drop. Its called buying low. Im not selling.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: Jack on April 05, 2016, 06:47:09 AM
Yes I stopped buying stocks 1000 points ago. Im waiting for the 5-10% drop that is coming. I know it is. Can't tell you exactly when other than soon enough.

So let me get this straight.... You sat out a 5-10% runup, so you could wait for a 5-10% drop to buy back in.  You're not exactly making the case for your investment policy.

I LOL'd.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: Retire-Canada on April 05, 2016, 06:53:01 AM
So let me get this straight.... You sat out a 5-10% runup, so you could wait for a 5-10% drop to buy back in. 

...don't forget the quarterly dividends.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: mrpercentage on April 05, 2016, 07:01:13 AM
So let me get this straight.... You sat out a 5-10% runup, so you could wait for a 5-10% drop to buy back in. 

...don't forget the quarterly dividends.

Yeah they go into bonds too. Thats the way my 457 works. Dividends go to your current investment election. I buy bonds and rotate them into stocks when stocks get slammed.

My direct stock purchases still reinvest but I have been thinking of taking them in cash
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: mrpercentage on April 05, 2016, 07:33:01 AM
(http://i820.photobucket.com/albums/zz124/azwolf25/Mobile%20Uploads/75B4DF8F-358F-435B-B04D-0A33E303C889.jpg) (http://s820.photobucket.com/user/azwolf25/media/Mobile%20Uploads/75B4DF8F-358F-435B-B04D-0A33E303C889.jpg.html)
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: Heckler on April 05, 2016, 08:04:49 AM
Why are they all smiling and clapping?   Doesn't this signify the end of all things?
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: protostache on April 05, 2016, 08:10:09 AM
Why are they all smiling and clapping?   Doesn't this signify the end of all things?

There are only 252 opportunities to ring the bell in 2016 and if you actually get a slot and corresponding photo opportunity, you better believe everyone is going to be smiling and happy.

Note that there's no charge to actually ring the bell, but if you want anything else I believe the fees get into mid six figures.  Just like wedding photos.

(source: sketchy memories from the time years ago that the company I worked for opened NASDAQ and the corresponding grumbling from the disgruntled engineers)
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: Retire-Canada on April 05, 2016, 08:18:45 AM
Yes I stopped buying stocks 1000 points ago. Im waiting for the 5-10% drop that is coming. I know it is. Can't tell you exactly when other than soon enough.

How much have you stockpiled for your triumphant return to the market?
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: ScarElbow on April 05, 2016, 09:14:22 AM
Earnings season kicks off April 11. Consensus is negative. We'll see
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: dandarc on April 05, 2016, 09:22:09 AM
Why are they all smiling and clapping?   Doesn't this signify the end of all things?
Am I reading that right in the background?  IFLY: PureFunds Drone Economy Strategy ETF
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: Jack on April 05, 2016, 09:29:08 AM
Am I reading that right in the background?  IFLY: PureFunds Drone Economy Strategy ETF

Wow. And apparently "GAMR: Video Game Tech [ETF]." Holy narrow sector, Batman!
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: forummm on April 05, 2016, 10:21:18 AM
Am I reading that right in the background?  IFLY: PureFunds Drone Economy Strategy ETF

Wow. And apparently "GAMR: Video Game Tech [ETF]." Holy narrow sector, Batman!

"Own Your Investments"

Um, how else would you do that?
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: thd7t on April 05, 2016, 10:22:47 AM
Am I reading that right in the background?  IFLY: PureFunds Drone Economy Strategy ETF

Wow. And apparently "GAMR: Video Game Tech [ETF]." Holy narrow sector, Batman!

"Own Your Investments"

Um, how else would you do that?
In this case, I think it's shorthand for "buy our products"
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: forummm on April 05, 2016, 10:26:46 AM
Am I reading that right in the background?  IFLY: PureFunds Drone Economy Strategy ETF

Wow. And apparently "GAMR: Video Game Tech [ETF]." Holy narrow sector, Batman!

"Own Your Investments"

Um, how else would you do that?
In this case, I think it's shorthand for "buy our products"
All corporate slogans are.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: dividendman on April 06, 2016, 01:30:44 PM
almost a 100 point gain today... mrpercentage, what is your prognosis?

Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: Eric on April 06, 2016, 02:53:43 PM
Is mrpercentage really Peter Schiff?  (see ad on right side of attached screenshot)
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: wienerdog on April 06, 2016, 03:43:03 PM
almost a 100 point gain today... mrpercentage, what is your prognosis?

I think he was wrong on the "early" part.  It just isn't May yet.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: 2Birds1Stone on April 06, 2016, 05:05:31 PM
Lol, this is why these threads are only good for a laugh...........and even a broken clock is correct twice a day.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: 2buttons on April 06, 2016, 05:27:17 PM
Comedy.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: aschmidt2930 on April 06, 2016, 05:28:16 PM
May selling coming early? I think so.

I knew I wouldn't have to wait long for 100+ drop in the Dow. I think we will have some more in the not too distant future. I have money parked in bonds waiting for another opening like this one

You do realize we are up ~2,400 points since the 52 week low? I hope you have a crystal ball ;)

Yes I stopped buying stocks 1000 points ago. Im waiting for the 5-10% drop that is coming. I know it is. Can't tell you exactly when other than soon enough.

So let me get this straight.... You sat out a 5-10% runup, so you could wait for a 5-10% drop to buy back in.  You're not exactly making the case for your investment policy.

Well played.  Not only is it simply gambling, the premise is illogical.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: ender on April 06, 2016, 05:45:39 PM
almost a 100 point gain today... mrpercentage, what is your prognosis?


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NnP5iDKwuwk


we don't have youtube embedding apparently? :(
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: iamlindoro on April 06, 2016, 06:18:45 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NnP5iDKwuwk


we don't have youtube embedding apparently? :(

Too appropriate since mrpercentage's analysis method is effectively "use the force..."
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: forummm on April 06, 2016, 06:39:54 PM
May selling coming early? I think so.

I knew I wouldn't have to wait long for 100+ drop in the Dow. I think we will have some more in the not too distant future. I have money parked in bonds waiting for another opening like this one

So you're looking for Red Dow(n)?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1_I4WgBfETc
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: Cycling Stache on April 07, 2016, 05:09:27 AM
OMG YESTERDAY WAS THE BEGINNING OF THE APRIL ASCENSION!!!!!!!!

(Or maybe not, which is why I just put in when I have it, and stay in until I need it.)
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: ScarElbow on April 07, 2016, 08:57:15 AM
He's not wrong on the direction, duration maybe. It's simple really. Overbought underlyings have a tendency to correct themselves. The Dow has been in overbought territory for a while. If you're a trader now is a great time.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: frugledoc on April 07, 2016, 11:20:25 AM
Maybe for the tiny percent that make money but almost all traders lose.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: ScarElbow on April 07, 2016, 12:03:31 PM
Yeah my doctor told me not to run anymore because most runners get runner's knee. Why do runners get runner's knee? Well because their technique is wrong, they don't have adequate strength to support their knee joint. Why do runners have poor technique and inadequate strength? Well because....And if i kept on asking why, the doctor would eventually say something about statistical evidence this and statistical evidence that without addressing any specific remedy to the problem. Well then, instead of telling runners they would get injured by running, shouldn't they instead encourage them to find ways to prevent injuries and perhaps enhance the experience of running?
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: dividendman on April 07, 2016, 01:25:55 PM
OMG! Looks like the DOW is down over 1% today. mrpercentage was right!!!!111
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: forummm on April 07, 2016, 01:40:59 PM
OMG! Looks like the DOW is down over 1% today. mrpercentage was right!!!!111

If the trend continues, it's headed towards 500!!!
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: ender on April 08, 2016, 05:55:21 AM
He's not wrong on the direction, duration maybe. It's simple really. Overbought underlyings have a tendency to correct themselves. The Dow has been in overbought territory for a while. If you're a trader now is a great time.

The problem with this statement is I've been reading the same thing on the forums for several years.

Yet the market went up during that time on the whole, fairly significantly.

Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: wienerdog on April 08, 2016, 06:32:36 AM
"No one believes it, but we think the lows are in for 2016, and we think we're still going to achieve 2,350 by year-end," Johnson said, referring to a level that is 14 percent above Thursday's opening price."

Straight from CNBC and I think mrpercentage watches that so they have to be right.

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/04/07/the-big-sp-prediction-that-no-one-believes.html
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: smedleyb on April 08, 2016, 12:55:22 PM
He's not wrong on the direction, duration maybe. It's simple really. Overbought underlyings have a tendency to correct themselves. The Dow has been in overbought territory for a while. If you're a trader now is a great time.

The problem with this statement is I've been reading the same thing on the forums for several years.

Yet the market went up during that time on the whole, fairly significantly.

Having been obstinately bearish for a good chunk of that move, I completely agree with your assessment.  Nobody has a crystal ball, but remaining steadily invested year in year out is the only sane financial path to generating real wealth in the stock market. 

That said, I got a real bad feeling about this market over the next several months and slightly beyond.  For most, that means absolutely nothing -- as it should.  For those who enjoy gossiping about the day to day irrational gyrations of stock prices, it means that caution -- and cash -- might be in order here. 
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: Indexer on April 08, 2016, 09:42:47 PM
So market timing... bad market timing aside...

We are looking for a 100 point swing in the DJIA. We are looking for a 100 point swing in an index that is currently over 17,500 and it only tracks 30 stocks. It is also price weighted.

1 stock having a bad day could move the DOW 100 points. I'm just saying....
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: Travis on April 08, 2016, 10:01:03 PM
So market timing... bad market timing aside...

We are looking for a 100 point swing in the DJIA. We are looking for a 100 point swing in an index that is currently over 17,500 and it only tracks 30 stocks. It is also price weighted.

1 stock having a bad day could move the DOW 100 points. I'm just saying....

A bad day is also just...one day. With hundreds more to go.  It's statistically pointless to concern yourself with a single day change of 100 points. Or a single day change in any direction.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: mrpercentage on April 09, 2016, 05:06:37 PM
Well April 22 is the official Earth Day-- and more importantly Passover--- its "Sell Passover buy Yom Kippur"

Go ahead a laugh away. You guys did the same thing after I said sell because of the Disney crash. What happened? Within a couple of weeks a 1000 point drop. I don't think it will be quite so bad but I do think its coming-- and within the next 30 days. Cant tell you the exact date but if Im wrong I will be holding 3 months of bonds. Woopty-do

Im not sure how everyone gets all crazy with "you can't predict anything". Dude even a groundhog can see spring coming.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: forummm on April 09, 2016, 05:11:19 PM
Im not sure how everyone gets all crazy with "you can't predict anything". Dude even a groundhog can see spring coming.

I think it's possible to predict some things. But I won't bet my life savings on a rodent's shadow.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: mrpercentage on April 09, 2016, 05:44:22 PM
Im not sure how everyone gets all crazy with "you can't predict anything". Dude even a groundhog can see spring coming.

I think it's possible to predict some things. But I won't bet my life savings on a rodent's shadow.

touche..

Im not selling anything [just to clarify]. Im just trying to get in on better prices. I think I can get better [even if only temporary] prices than they are right now. Im willing to gamble buying bonds until they do. I think we have run up too far too fast to get enthusiastic about buying stocks right now. Just an opinion

Past predictions do not predict future results. Talk to your financial advisor, or stay out of internet forums
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: protostache on April 09, 2016, 06:03:29 PM
Go ahead a laugh away. You guys did the same thing after I said sell because of the Disney crash. What happened? Within a couple of weeks a 1000 point drop.

Not for me. I bought Disney at the bottom and it's gone up almost 10%. For the next few months the smartest thing for me might be to hold cash, though. I guess we'll see when I put new money in at the end of April.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: mrpercentage on April 09, 2016, 06:13:24 PM
Go ahead a laugh away. You guys did the same thing after I said sell because of the Disney crash. What happened? Within a couple of weeks a 1000 point drop.

Not for me. I bought Disney at the bottom and it's gone up almost 10%. For the next few months the smartest thing for me might be to hold cash, though. I guess we'll see when I put new money in at the end of April.

Awesome man. I love Disney. Best of luck with the market. I think we will have a window sometime soon. Where it goes from there who knows... I just want to avoid buying tops.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: capitalninja on April 11, 2016, 06:52:49 AM
I initially thought that this post was a belated April's Fools Day prank but he's really serious........... 
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: peppaz on April 11, 2016, 09:22:11 AM
May selling coming early? I think so.

I knew I wouldn't have to wait long for 100+ drop in the Dow. I think we will have some more in the not too distant future. I have money parked in bonds waiting for another opening like this one

You do realize we are up ~2,400 points since the 52 week low? I hope you have a crystal ball ;)

Yes I stopped buying stocks 1000 points ago. Im waiting for the 5-10% drop that is coming. I know it is. Can't tell you exactly when other than soon enough.

So let me get this straight.... You sat out a 5-10% runup, so you could wait for a 5-10% drop to buy back in.  You're not exactly making the case for your investment policy.

No I quit buying stocks and started buying bonds. I still own the stocks I had. I will rotate those bonds into stocks when they drop. Its called buying low. Im not selling.


Time in the market beats timing the market - every time.

No one can really time the market.

Edit: Obviously I'm speaking in broad terms. People do it. Most can't. When they do, it's largely a fluke.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: Metric Mouse on April 11, 2016, 09:52:09 AM
True. No one has ever outperformed the market. Ever. In any case. Ever. I don't see why anyone would think differently.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: thd7t on April 11, 2016, 10:11:45 AM
True. No one has ever outperformed the market. Ever. In any case. Ever. I don't see why anyone would think differently.
Market timing isn't the only way that people beat the market. Fortunate stock picking combined with a buy and hold strategy could beat the market by more than market timing.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: forummm on April 11, 2016, 10:20:59 AM
True. No one has ever outperformed the market. Ever. In any case. Ever. I don't see why anyone would think differently.

Timing the market is different than value investing as a full time job (AKA Buffett).

May selling coming early? I think so.

I knew I wouldn't have to wait long for 100+ drop in the Dow. I think we will have some more in the not too distant future. I have money parked in bonds waiting for another opening like this one

You do realize we are up ~2,400 points since the 52 week low? I hope you have a crystal ball ;)

Yes I stopped buying stocks 1000 points ago. Im waiting for the 5-10% drop that is coming. I know it is. Can't tell you exactly when other than soon enough.

So let me get this straight.... You sat out a 5-10% runup, so you could wait for a 5-10% drop to buy back in.  You're not exactly making the case for your investment policy.

No I quit buying stocks and started buying bonds. I still own the stocks I had. I will rotate those bonds into stocks when they drop. Its called buying low. Im not selling.


Time in the market beats timing the market - every time.

No one can really time the market.

A little overbroad. Someone somewhere has in at least one instance beaten the market through market timing. It's just more likely you'll lose out in the long run (and short run too).
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: Travis on April 11, 2016, 11:05:58 AM
True. No one has ever outperformed the market. Ever. In any case. Ever. I don't see why anyone would think differently.

Timing the market is different than value investing as a full time job (AKA Buffett).

May selling coming early? I think so.

I knew I wouldn't have to wait long for 100+ drop in the Dow. I think we will have some more in the not too distant future. I have money parked in bonds waiting for another opening like this one

You do realize we are up ~2,400 points since the 52 week low? I hope you have a crystal ball ;)

Yes I stopped buying stocks 1000 points ago. Im waiting for the 5-10% drop that is coming. I know it is. Can't tell you exactly when other than soon enough.

So let me get this straight.... You sat out a 5-10% runup, so you could wait for a 5-10% drop to buy back in.  You're not exactly making the case for your investment policy.

No I quit buying stocks and started buying bonds. I still own the stocks I had. I will rotate those bonds into stocks when they drop. Its called buying low. Im not selling.


Time in the market beats timing the market - every time.

No one can really time the market.

A little overbroad. Someone somewhere has in at least one instance beaten the market through market timing. It's just more likely you'll lose out in the long run (and short run too).

In the grand scheme its an insignificant number of folks who can do it, and so far there is little in the way of techniques to say how they do it that can't be explained by a big dose of luck.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: dividendman on April 11, 2016, 11:26:36 AM
Also, many of the very successful investors don't just buy small positions on the market. Many, if not most, of them buy large enough stakes to influence how the company operates or buy entire businesses. This is very different from buying small positions.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: James on April 11, 2016, 11:33:35 AM
I initially thought that this post was a belated April's Fools Day prank but he's really serious...........


Yeah, you get used to it...
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: NoraLenderbee on April 11, 2016, 12:44:30 PM
Dude even a groundhog can see spring coming.

Anyone can predict spring coming because it comes every year at the same time.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: bobechs on April 11, 2016, 12:59:06 PM
So, looking back over the last five weeks since mr.percentage had his flash of red-tinted prescience, how's that ol' Dow looking:

Black: it's the new red.

(http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/kaavio.Webhost/charts/big.chart?nosettings=1&symb=DJIA&uf=0&type=2&size=2&sid=1643&style=320&freq=1&entitlementtoken=0c33378313484ba9b46b8e24ded87dd6&time=5&rand=1801128268&compidx=&ma=0&maval=9&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&height=335&width=579&mocktick=1)
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: wienerdog on April 11, 2016, 03:59:57 PM
1. Apple-- they are an unstoppable force. For the next 5 years at least. Apple watch is sold out-- proving the doubters wrong once again.
2. Disney-- they get their own outline.
    a. THEY OWN STAR WARS
    b. THEY OWN STAR WARS
    c. They own ESPN
    d. They are building a Disney land in China. China has a billion people. Disney land in China. Again in China.
    e. Every movie they have made still sells at full price. Jungle Book is $25 and they made that shit in the 60's. And people still buy it.
    f. They own ABC15
    g. Its up 13,676% from its opening price and its still going. I made 12.6% in one month. Last month if I remember right.

3. PAH because their CEO came out and said his stock was going to be $200. That took balls and Im betting on it. They have a cash flow model and that works.
4. Ford because despite popular opinion they have watched everyone else die and they are still here.
5. Lack of sleep has VOIDED this comment
6. Dreamworks-- they are an upcoming Disney
7. ESCA-- because they are the only publicly traded archery stock. They own Bear, and that is bad ass.

It doesn't take numbers to recognize greatness

0 out 6 isn't bad from last years predictions....  Could have just lost 2.41% following the S&P 500.  I hope he was heavily weighted on Dreamworks as it only lost 4.01%.

 
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: Fireball on April 11, 2016, 04:23:10 PM
LOL. I give him credit for at least putting himself out there to be skewered.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: smedleyb on April 11, 2016, 04:37:08 PM
1. Apple-- they are an unstoppable force. For the next 5 years at least. Apple watch is sold out-- proving the doubters wrong once again.
2. Disney-- they get their own outline.
    a. THEY OWN STAR WARS
    b. THEY OWN STAR WARS
    c. They own ESPN
    d. They are building a Disney land in China. China has a billion people. Disney land in China. Again in China.
    e. Every movie they have made still sells at full price. Jungle Book is $25 and they made that shit in the 60's. And people still buy it.
    f. They own ABC15
    g. Its up 13,676% from its opening price and its still going. I made 12.6% in one month. Last month if I remember right.

3. PAH because their CEO came out and said his stock was going to be $200. That took balls and Im betting on it. They have a cash flow model and that works.
4. Ford because despite popular opinion they have watched everyone else die and they are still here.
5. Lack of sleep has VOIDED this comment
6. Dreamworks-- they are an upcoming Disney
7. ESCA-- because they are the only publicly traded archery stock. They own Bear, and that is bad ass.

It doesn't take numbers to recognize greatness

0 out 6 isn't bad from last years predictions....  Could have just lost 2.41% following the S&P 500.  I hope he was heavily weighted on Dreamworks as it only lost 4.01%.

For a guy who hates buying market tops, Mr. Percentage appears to like recommending the purchase of stocks topping out.

Unlike Mr. P's hunches, my own bearish prognostications -- made here on Friday after much thoughtful deliberation -- are rooted in a confluence of observable market events, from insolvent commodity stocks, wild fluctuations in global currencies, the failure of negative interest rate polices, declining treasury yields, and a dismal earnings outlook for the vast majority of companies this quarter and next.

More specifically, today was a soul crushing day for the bulls, reversing yet another 150 point gain by the close, and I feel the floodgates to hell have been pushed wide open.  A storm is brewing in the equity markets, and I don't mean a measly 100 points of downside on Dow.  A 20-30% swoon lower from these levels over the coming weeks seems immanent, IMO.   My gambling account is positioned accordingly, 100% short via select puts. 

(As always, anyone basing any long term investment decisions on advice given on a message board is an abject moron who deserves to be separated from his/her money.)


Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: peppaz on April 11, 2016, 04:55:02 PM
I'm looking to be in the market for another 25 years before retirement, and then even after, so if and when it tanks, the only thing I do differently is invest more during the lull.

It's not worth it, for me, to miss out on a collective few years of investing and time in the market because everyone is calling for the next great crash. Slow and steady, max out my pre and post tax retirement accounts, keep buying broad indexes and some stocks for fun in brokerage accounts, and that's it for me. Rebalance when necessary.

I'm not a market genius, so I won't try to play the market like one. It just seems to me that most people who claim to be market geniuses lose themselves and others lots of money (broadly speaking)- especially when comparing index fund performance vs actively managed funds over the last 30 or 40 years.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: smedleyb on April 11, 2016, 05:09:42 PM
I'm looking to be in the market for another 25 years before retirement, and then even after, so if and when it tanks, the only thing I do differently is invest more during the lull.

It's not worth it, for me, to miss out on a collective few years of investing and time in the market because everyone is calling for the next great crash. Slow and steady, max out my pre and post tax retirement accounts, keep buying broad indexes and some stocks for fun in brokerage accounts, and that's it for me. Rebalance when necessary.

I'm not a market genius, so I won't try to play the market like one. It just seems to me that most people who claim to be market geniuses lose themselves and others lots of money (broadly speaking)- especially when comparing index fund performance vs actively managed funds over the last 30 or 40 years.

Nailed it.

But in a thread created to gossip about short term and ultimately unpredictable price movements, I felt compelled to give my 2 cents on the current state of the market.  And that's what that info is worth -- 2 cents. 
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: peppaz on April 11, 2016, 05:18:22 PM

Nailed it.

But in a thread created to gossip about short term and ultimately unpredictable price movements, I felt compelled to give my 2 cents on the current state of the market.  And that's what that info is worth -- 2 cents. 

Of course, and it's appreciated. I just get frustrated with doomsayer after doomsayer predicting the crash every month since the 2007. (not on this board, publications like zerohedge or websites that try to sell you gold after their market implosion predictions week after week.)

Are the fundamentals of the world economy strong? Nope! Not all of them. Not most of them even. But sitting out of the market for years trying to weather a storm that hasn't come to pass seems less palatable to me than just dealing with it smartly when it does happen.

The only lesson I ever needed on investment strategy is watching my Dad move his retirement/deferred comp portfolio from stocks to CASH directly after the 2007 crash. Poor guy.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: Retire-Canada on April 11, 2016, 06:07:38 PM
(https://farm2.staticflickr.com/1720/26312802301_112d465508_z.jpg)

Yup. Looks pretty soul crushing.

I'm sharpening my machete and practicing my crossbow marksmanship. It feels like the zombie apocalypse is just around the bend. ;)
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: Retire-Canada on April 11, 2016, 06:19:22 PM
What would be sweet is a faux brokerage game that anyone can join [once per MMM forum account]. Everyone gets the same monthly savings $$ to invest as they see fit. It's real-time with actual market results and anyone else in the game can look up your results and compare them...maybe with a one month rolling black out so you can't mimic someone else's trades.

That way all the market timing magicians, cunning value investors and stubborn buy/holders could put their money where their mouthes are.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: Travis on April 11, 2016, 07:34:52 PM
What would be sweet is a faux brokerage game that anyone can join [once per MMM forum account]. Everyone gets the same monthly savings $$ to invest as they see fit. It's real-time with actual market results and anyone else in the game can look up your results and compare them...maybe with a one month rolling black out so you can't mimic someone else's trades.

That way all the market timing magicians, cunning value investors and stubborn buy/holders could put their money where their mouthes are.

We played a similar game in a high school math class.  We were given a starting amount and a copy of a newspaper with stock prices.  We played for a month and compared the results.  I'd love to play an app that let's you do the same to include simulating trading costs and compare the results with other players.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: forummm on April 12, 2016, 07:11:49 AM
What would be sweet is a faux brokerage game that anyone can join [once per MMM forum account]. Everyone gets the same monthly savings $$ to invest as they see fit. It's real-time with actual market results and anyone else in the game can look up your results and compare them...maybe with a one month rolling black out so you can't mimic someone else's trades.

That way all the market timing magicians, cunning value investors and stubborn buy/holders could put their money where their mouthes are.

We played a similar game in a high school math class.  We were given a starting amount and a copy of a newspaper with stock prices.  We played for a month and compared the results.  I'd love to play an app that let's you do the same to include simulating trading costs and compare the results with other players.

If someone set it up I might play.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: 2Birds1Stone on April 12, 2016, 07:20:16 AM
We did do this here a few months back
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: dividendman on April 12, 2016, 11:19:36 AM
1. Apple-- they are an unstoppable force. For the next 5 years at least. Apple watch is sold out-- proving the doubters wrong once again.
2. Disney-- they get their own outline.
    a. THEY OWN STAR WARS
    b. THEY OWN STAR WARS
    c. They own ESPN
    d. They are building a Disney land in China. China has a billion people. Disney land in China. Again in China.
    e. Every movie they have made still sells at full price. Jungle Book is $25 and they made that shit in the 60's. And people still buy it.
    f. They own ABC15
    g. Its up 13,676% from its opening price and its still going. I made 12.6% in one month. Last month if I remember right.

3. PAH because their CEO came out and said his stock was going to be $200. That took balls and Im betting on it. They have a cash flow model and that works.
4. Ford because despite popular opinion they have watched everyone else die and they are still here.
5. Lack of sleep has VOIDED this comment
6. Dreamworks-- they are an upcoming Disney
7. ESCA-- because they are the only publicly traded archery stock. They own Bear, and that is bad ass.

It doesn't take numbers to recognize greatness

0 out 6 isn't bad from last years predictions....  Could have just lost 2.41% following the S&P 500.  I hope he was heavily weighted on Dreamworks as it only lost 4.01%.

Hrm... perhaps this means I should change my asset allocation from 50% VTI, 30% VEU and 20% BND to 100% shorts on whatever Mr. P picks... it's a sure winner!
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: Retire-Canada on April 12, 2016, 11:24:49 AM

Hrm... perhaps this means I should change my asset allocation from 50% VTI, 30% VEU and 20% BND to 100% shorts on whatever Mr. P picks... it's a sure winner!

It's a proven concept: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cKUvKE3bQlY
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: I'm a red panda on April 12, 2016, 12:37:45 PM

We played a similar game in a high school math class.  We were given a starting amount and a copy of a newspaper with stock prices.  We played for a month and compared the results.  I'd love to play an app that let's you do the same to include simulating trading costs and compare the results with other players.

I hated this part of economics in high school.  We were required to make a certain number of "trades" during the six-weeks period, so buy and hold wasn't allowed.  Almost everyone lost money, so while we "understood" how the stock market worked, pretty much everyone left with a negative opinion of it.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: protostache on April 12, 2016, 12:43:56 PM

We played a similar game in a high school math class.  We were given a starting amount and a copy of a newspaper with stock prices.  We played for a month and compared the results.  I'd love to play an app that let's you do the same to include simulating trading costs and compare the results with other players.

I hated this part of economics in high school.  We were required to make a certain number of "trades" during the six-weeks period, so buy and hold wasn't allowed.  Almost everyone lost money, so while we "understood" how the stock market worked, pretty much everyone left with a negative opinion of it.

We played a similar game in US History class. Everyone started out with a certain amount of money in the year 1926 (I think? mid-20's). Everyone could make one trade a month. The game lasted through 1930, and the person with the most money at the end won.

I think only me and one other person remembered to cash out in mid-1929.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: iamlindoro on April 12, 2016, 12:44:20 PM
Hrm... perhaps this means I should change my asset allocation from 50% VTI, 30% VEU and 20% BND to 100% shorts on whatever Mr. P picks... it's a sure winner!

When will the ETF be ready?
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: smedleyb on April 13, 2016, 05:37:11 AM
Here it comes -- a sharp stick in the eye of every wanna be Kodiak.  lol!

Gambling account off a quick 1.25% based on pre-market action.  Trading stops set a little higher but doubt I survive this market Pamplona beyond today or tomorrow.  At least at a real casino, I would be offered several drinks and a scrumptious buffet for my time.  Instead, I get to do the MMM walk of market timing shame as I bite into a shitty bagel and sip from a cold cup of coffee.  Fuck you mister market, fuck you!!!



Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: frugledoc on April 13, 2016, 09:21:33 AM
Here it comes -- a sharp stick in the eye of every wanna be Kodiak.  lol!

Gambling account off a quick 1.25% based on pre-market action.  Trading stops set a little higher but doubt I survive this market Pamplona beyond today or tomorrow.  At least at a real casino, I would be offered several drinks and a scrumptious buffet for my time.  Instead, I get to do the MMM walk of market timing shame as I bite into a shitty bagel and sip from a cold cup of coffee.  Fuck you mister market, fuck you!!!

Yes, it took several years of pain when I was arrogant and naive, similar to Mr Percentage and yourself, before I was realised I should just index.   

Now, I can sit back and enjoy the ups and the downs of the market and just keep investing.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: JetBlast on April 13, 2016, 01:45:50 PM

We played a similar game in a high school math class.  We were given a starting amount and a copy of a newspaper with stock prices.  We played for a month and compared the results.  I'd love to play an app that let's you do the same to include simulating trading costs and compare the results with other players.

I hated this part of economics in high school.  We were required to make a certain number of "trades" during the six-weeks period, so buy and hold wasn't allowed.  Almost everyone lost money, so while we "understood" how the stock market worked, pretty much everyone left with a negative opinion of it.

We also played a similar game in high school economics but didn't have the required trades. Buy an hold was allowed for the couple months the game lasted. The problem was the game ran March-May 2000. You know, right when the bubble burst. Knowing little at the time about the market I picked different industries and went with analyst ratings. I had Enron and Global Crossing!  The only thing that worked for my portfolio was the one industry I obsessively followed, the airlines, as I chose Frontier Airlines to capitalize on the meltdown United was having due to labor negotiations.

One of my friends won the contest with stocks he picked by looking around his room. Coca-cola, Texas Instruments, Proctor & Gamble, 3M etc... A great defensive portfolio at exactly the right time.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: dividendman on April 14, 2016, 11:48:37 AM
I feel it's my duty to bump this thread every day the market goes up...
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: forummm on April 14, 2016, 12:24:29 PM
I feel it's my duty to bump this thread every day the market goes up...

By going up further, it's just increasing the amount it's going to come down for next month's dip.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: frugledoc on April 14, 2016, 02:11:44 PM
I feel it's my duty to bump this thread every day the market goes up...

By going up further, it's just increasing the amount it's going to come down for next month's dip.

And then Mr P can come back to the thread and tell us all how he called it.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: mrpercentage on April 14, 2016, 06:13:24 PM
I already said, I believe the rally will end early this year (thats before May). I told you Earth Day. Its not Earth Day is it? I also admitted that I could be wrong. Im a little longer sighted than some. I did get faked out a little. Triple digit drops get my attention but if it trends it goes down fast. I still think its coming, but I didn't pull the trigger for any moves yet. Im looking for a 300-500 point drop in a day.

The market as a whole is much harder than a stock. Also my working hours are changing so I will be working 100% of the time the market is open. Im going to around here a lot less too.

Bump away

Why don't you bump me telling you to buy BRK.B right now!! when it was $125 a month ago? Bump that would you because its $141 now

Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: mrpercentage on April 14, 2016, 06:29:10 PM
True. No one has ever outperformed the market. Ever. In any case. Ever. I don't see why anyone would think differently.
Market timing isn't the only way that people beat the market. Fortunate stock picking combined with a buy and hold strategy could beat the market by more than market timing.

here is the 457 I am timing

(http://i820.photobucket.com/albums/zz124/azwolf25/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-14%20at%205.24.02%20PM.jpg) (http://s820.photobucket.com/user/azwolf25/media/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-14%20at%205.24.02%20PM.jpg.html)
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: mrpercentage on April 14, 2016, 06:35:21 PM
Here is my Buffett investing-- Direct stock purchasing strait from Mint-- the 2% is Conoco

(http://i820.photobucket.com/albums/zz124/azwolf25/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-14%20at%205.31.19%20PM.jpg) (http://s820.photobucket.com/user/azwolf25/media/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-14%20at%205.31.19%20PM.jpg.html)
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: mrpercentage on April 14, 2016, 06:45:56 PM
Maybe I should buy the index. I could have 1.8%!! What was I thinking?
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: WhoDey on April 14, 2016, 07:29:37 PM
True. No one has ever outperformed the market. Ever. In any case. Ever. I don't see why anyone would think differently.
Market timing isn't the only way that people beat the market. Fortunate stock picking combined with a buy and hold strategy could beat the market by more than market timing.

here is the 457 I am timing

(http://i820.photobucket.com/albums/zz124/azwolf25/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-14%20at%205.24.02%20PM.jpg) (http://s820.photobucket.com/user/azwolf25/media/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-14%20at%205.24.02%20PM.jpg.html)

Looks like you're making a killing... lol
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: mrpercentage on April 14, 2016, 07:37:36 PM
Looks like you're making a killing... lol
You look like you are doing alright

Only my direct stock purchases are killing anything. I was just showing that being active is working for me. My direct stocks collectively yield over 4% and I have a big purchase going through now. I will let them know when the 15% stake in my portfolio is done so they can short it. Its a new holding. The index is different, Im buying bonds right now-- for now
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: tyir on April 14, 2016, 08:41:52 PM
I already said, I believe the rally will end early this year (thats before May). I told you Earth Day. Its not Earth Day is it? I also admitted that I could be wrong. Im a little longer sighted than some. I did get faked out a little. Triple digit drops get my attention but if it trends it goes down fast. I still think its coming, but I didn't pull the trigger for any moves yet. Im looking for a 300-500 point drop in a day.

The market as a whole is much harder than a stock. Also my working hours are changing so I will be working 100% of the time the market is open. Im going to around here a lot less too.

Bump away

Why don't you bump me telling you to buy BRK.B right now!! when it was $125 a month ago? Bump that would you because its $141 now

You first posted the morning of April 5th, where the dow was at 17643. Looks like we're at 17923, so about 300 up from your OP. If it drops 300 in a day that would be a trigger for you to buy? It would just be at the level you started this thread at a couple weeks ago.
Sorry, I don't get how this is long sighted...
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: mrpercentage on April 14, 2016, 09:17:39 PM

You first posted the morning of April 5th, where the dow was at 17643. Looks like we're at 17923, so about 300 up from your OP. If it drops 300 in a day that would be a trigger for you to buy? It would just be at the level you started this thread at a couple weeks ago.
Sorry, I don't get how this is long sighted...

Its not buying tops. I don't have to get the bottom every time. I just don't buy the tops. Perhaps this is no longer the volatile market it was just two short months ago and the whole year before that. I mean we had a good month lets throw in all our money and be like everyone else because the castle goes to the clouds man. If you all were telling me to sell I would be buying. It might drop 1000 points who knows. The market always goes up eventually but unless we are in for a surprise record year with no regard for seasons-- its coming down some soon so why buy now? Its not like bonds don't pay interest-- so my interest plus my rotation into stocks must beat the market (the 500).

Its about being ahead of the curve and that usually means looking like a fool for the moment. Maybe I am one, who knows.

Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: frugledoc on April 14, 2016, 11:38:31 PM
Well, if nothing else you are a great contrarian indicator.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: Trevor Reznik on April 15, 2016, 12:18:42 AM
Its not buying tops. I don't have to get the bottom every time. I just don't buy the tops. Perhaps this is no longer the volatile market it was just two short months ago and the whole year before that. I mean we had a good month lets throw in all our money and be like everyone else because the castle goes to the clouds man. If you all were telling me to sell I would be buying. It might drop 1000 points who knows. The market always goes up eventually but unless we are in for a surprise record year with no regard for seasons-- its coming down some soon so why buy now? Its not like bonds don't pay interest-- so my interest plus my rotation into stocks must beat the market (the 500).

Its about being ahead of the curve and that usually means looking like a fool for the moment. Maybe I am one, who knows.

Sounds overcomplicated to me.  All you need to do is invest a set amount into the index at regular intervals and reinvest the dividends, that automatically sees you buying more units when prices are low and less when prices are high.  You will automatically beat the index, without even thinking about it.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: James on April 18, 2016, 11:56:52 AM
Just read a good article: http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2016-04-18/if-you-re-a-contrarian-you-re-like-everyone-else


"Remember, most of the time, the contrarian investor is wrong. The vast majority of the time, the market is the crowd. Hence, making a bet against the crowd means you are fighting the market. The majority of investing dollars are the fuel that moves stocks and bonds along their long-term, multiyear trends. It is only when sentiment reaches terrific extremes that taking a position opposite the crowd can potentially produce a huge score. Even then, the timing is very, very tricky."


Being contrarian will lose you all your money if you are always contrarian. In reality, you need to be contrarian only at the extremes, and with the crowd in the middle. A much harder task than simply being "contrarian"...
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: forummm on April 18, 2016, 12:14:39 PM
Just read a good article: http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2016-04-18/if-you-re-a-contrarian-you-re-like-everyone-else


"Remember, most of the time, the contrarian investor is wrong. The vast majority of the time, the market is the crowd. Hence, making a bet against the crowd means you are fighting the market. The majority of investing dollars are the fuel that moves stocks and bonds along their long-term, multiyear trends. It is only when sentiment reaches terrific extremes that taking a position opposite the crowd can potentially produce a huge score. Even then, the timing is very, very tricky."


Being contrarian will lose you all your money if you are always contrarian. In reality, you need to be contrarian only at the extremes, and with the crowd in the middle. A much harder task than simply being "contrarian"...

So if everyone thinks being a "contrarian" is good, and this article is going against that belief, can the article be right?
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: mrpercentage on April 18, 2016, 12:21:59 PM
As an update my new position is OHI. It was a large sum for me. Up to now my direct stock return for my other positions is 12.99% for a year and some positions have only been held 6 months.

so there you have it
Omega Healthcare REIT. Its name is fitting because it will be the last large purchase for me this year.
It's yield on cost is 6.54%

go ahead and short away.

Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: Jack on April 18, 2016, 12:55:43 PM
I've been following AMD for a while now and thought back in January/February it'd be a buy if it hit $2.00 (I'm bullish because Zen is coming at the end of the year). It did drop to 2.00, I didn't buy because I was too busy buying VTSAX in my IRA, and now it's up in the 2.70 - 2.90 range. I know I should resist the urge to market-time, but knowing that I would have succeeded in that instance makes it hard. : (
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: Mr.GrowingMustache on April 18, 2016, 01:53:55 PM
I've been following AMD for a while now and thought back in January/February it'd be a buy if it hit $2.00 (I'm bullish because Zen is coming at the end of the year). It did drop to 2.00, I didn't buy because I was too busy buying VTSAX in my IRA, and now it's up in the 2.70 - 2.90 range. I know I should resist the urge to market-time, but knowing that I would have succeeded in that instance makes it hard. : (

I have been following AMD and it's volatility for years now... and I have "timed" it. I got burned once, but overall I've made $$ off the stock. I also resisted the urge to buy at those sub $2.00 levels! Overall, you can't time it reliably.

I bought it at $2.50, way back when (1+ year) and just let it ride. It's at +10% now. I am expecting $3.50 territory in the future, but I don't sweat it since I bought it at "value price", and I'm going to let it ride. I think they will have a hit with the new 14nm Radeon GPU chipsets, and opening the FreeSync technology will eat into Nvidia's market share.

Have in mind I only have $2500 invested, so this "timing" is more of a hobby exercise :)


.... back on the rails
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: Terrestrial on April 18, 2016, 02:37:49 PM
1. Apple-- they are an unstoppable force. For the next 5 years at least. Apple watch is sold out-- proving the doubters wrong once again.
2. Disney-- they get their own outline.
    a. THEY OWN STAR WARS
    b. THEY OWN STAR WARS
    c. They own ESPN
    d. They are building a Disney land in China. China has a billion people. Disney land in China. Again in China.
    e. Every movie they have made still sells at full price. Jungle Book is $25 and they made that shit in the 60's. And people still buy it.
    f. They own ABC15
    g. Its up 13,676% from its opening price and its still going. I made 12.6% in one month. Last month if I remember right.

3. PAH because their CEO came out and said his stock was going to be $200. That took balls and Im betting on it. They have a cash flow model and that works.
4. Ford because despite popular opinion they have watched everyone else die and they are still here.
5. Lack of sleep has VOIDED this comment
6. Dreamworks-- they are an upcoming Disney
7. ESCA-- because they are the only publicly traded archery stock. They own Bear, and that is bad ass.

It doesn't take numbers to recognize greatness

0 out 6 isn't bad from last years predictions....  Could have just lost 2.41% following the S&P 500.  I hope he was heavily weighted on Dreamworks as it only lost 4.01%.

PAH is only down ~65% since April '15.  That's not THAT bad.  You only need a 22 bagger to get to 200 at this point - it could happen.  And what better reason could there be for buying a stock than 'their CEO said it would go up'.  I know nothing of the company but did a quick google - good news MP there's now a class action lawsuit to recover losses.

http://www.rosenlegal.com/cases-861.html

On the bright side ESCA is only down ~40% over that time.  Much better than PAH.   Archery must not be 'in season' at the moment.

The ~15% drops from AAPL and F look downright rosy compared to those two.





Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: fattest_foot on April 18, 2016, 03:30:38 PM
I hated this part of economics in high school.  We were required to make a certain number of "trades" during the six-weeks period, so buy and hold wasn't allowed.  Almost everyone lost money, so while we "understood" how the stock market worked, pretty much everyone left with a negative opinion of it.

I had the complete opposite experience. Back in 5th grade our math class had us break up into small teams and work with an imaginary $100,000 for 10 weeks. Apparently it was part of a broader competition within the entire state of Maryland.

Well, unfortunately, not only did we win the competition for our class, we also won it for the entire state.

Based on an article about it, we mostly bought Micron Technologies and Microsoft. The article actually has some great quotes, and shows that we were quite wise on the market.

Quote
The students had wanted to invest in Merck, a pharmaceutical company. [The teacher] advised against it, saying pharmaceutical stocks weren't preforming [sic] well. The students listened. About three weeks later, Merck came out with a chicken pox vaccine and Merck stock soared.

Micron Technologies, a computer chip company from Boise, Idaho, turned out to be the company that propelled [the] team into first place. Team members claim pure luck made them the state leaders.

"It's too tough, and it'll give you gray hairs. It'll give you an ulcer," said 11-year-old Jennifer.

"There are too many numbers, it's confusing," 11-year-old Emily said. "If you put an extra zero, you get in really big trouble. If I were in the stock market now, I'd be bankrupt."
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: dandarc on April 18, 2016, 03:41:04 PM
11-year olds with ulcers.  That's no good.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: iamlindoro on April 18, 2016, 03:53:54 PM
11-year olds with ulcers.  That's no good.

So you're saying I should be long in pharma stocks?
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: mrpercentage on April 18, 2016, 04:53:20 PM
1. Apple-- they are an unstoppable force. For the next 5 years at least. Apple watch is sold out-- proving the doubters wrong once again.
2. Disney-- they get their own outline.
    a. THEY OWN STAR WARS
    b. THEY OWN STAR WARS
    c. They own ESPN
    d. They are building a Disney land in China. China has a billion people. Disney land in China. Again in China.
    e. Every movie they have made still sells at full price. Jungle Book is $25 and they made that shit in the 60's. And people still buy it.
    f. They own ABC15
    g. Its up 13,676% from its opening price and its still going. I made 12.6% in one month. Last month if I remember right.

3. PAH because their CEO came out and said his stock was going to be $200. That took balls and Im betting on it. They have a cash flow model and that works.
4. Ford because despite popular opinion they have watched everyone else die and they are still here.
5. Lack of sleep has VOIDED this comment
6. Dreamworks-- they are an upcoming Disney
7. ESCA-- because they are the only publicly traded archery stock. They own Bear, and that is bad ass.

It doesn't take numbers to recognize greatness

0 out 6 isn't bad from last years predictions....  Could have just lost 2.41% following the S&P 500.  I hope he was heavily weighted on Dreamworks as it only lost 4.01%.

PAH is only down ~65% since April '15.  That's not THAT bad.  You only need a 22 bagger to get to 200 at this point - it could happen.  And what better reason could there be for buying a stock than 'their CEO said it would go up'.  I know nothing of the company but did a quick google - good news MP there's now a class action lawsuit to recover losses.

http://www.rosenlegal.com/cases-861.html

On the bright side ESCA is only down ~40% over that time.  Much better than PAH.   Archery must not be 'in season' at the moment.

The ~15% drops from AAPL and F look downright rosy compared to those two.

Whatever. I don't even have to say how out of context that is. That is simply not what I own. If you dug that deep you are well aware of all of all  that I posted with screenshots

I still like Apple, Ford, and Disney. Ford is the only one that pays high enough to maintain that interest today. Their sales merit a price double what it is today but their are too many cab taking Wall Street idiots who think uber is going to take over the world and I that will ditch my car to rent an autonomous car a hooker with scabbies puked in. No thanks I have a 38 mile trip and kids to pick up
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: wienerdog on April 18, 2016, 07:59:13 PM
1. Apple-- they are an unstoppable force. For the next 5 years at least. Apple watch is sold out-- proving the doubters wrong once again.
2. Disney-- they get their own outline.
    a. THEY OWN STAR WARS
    b. THEY OWN STAR WARS
    c. They own ESPN
    d. They are building a Disney land in China. China has a billion people. Disney land in China. Again in China.
    e. Every movie they have made still sells at full price. Jungle Book is $25 and they made that shit in the 60's. And people still buy it.
    f. They own ABC15
    g. Its up 13,676% from its opening price and its still going. I made 12.6% in one month. Last month if I remember right.

3. PAH because their CEO came out and said his stock was going to be $200. That took balls and Im betting on it. They have a cash flow model and that works.
4. Ford because despite popular opinion they have watched everyone else die and they are still here.
5. Lack of sleep has VOIDED this comment
6. Dreamworks-- they are an upcoming Disney
7. ESCA-- because they are the only publicly traded archery stock. They own Bear, and that is bad ass.

It doesn't take numbers to recognize greatness

0 out 6 isn't bad from last years predictions....  Could have just lost 2.41% following the S&P 500.  I hope he was heavily weighted on Dreamworks as it only lost 4.01%.

PAH is only down ~65% since April '15.  That's not THAT bad.  You only need a 22 bagger to get to 200 at this point - it could happen.  And what better reason could there be for buying a stock than 'their CEO said it would go up'.  I know nothing of the company but did a quick google - good news MP there's now a class action lawsuit to recover losses.

http://www.rosenlegal.com/cases-861.html

On the bright side ESCA is only down ~40% over that time.  Much better than PAH.   Archery must not be 'in season' at the moment.

The ~15% drops from AAPL and F look downright rosy compared to those two.

Whatever. I don't even have to say how out of context that is. That is simply not what I own. If you dug that deep you are well aware of all of all  that I posted with screenshots

I still like Apple, Ford, and Disney. Ford is the only one that pays high enough to maintain that interest today. Their sales merit a price double what it is today but their are too many cab taking Wall Street idiots who think uber is going to take over the world and I that will ditch my car to rent an autonomous car a hooker with scabbies puked in. No thanks I have a 38 mile trip and kids to pick up

That is very odd.  You sure were happy about those 2 weeks later:

which is drawing down the least?......... BOOM!



(http://i820.photobucket.com/albums/zz124/azwolf25/IMG_1313.jpg) (http://s820.photobucket.com/user/azwolf25/media/IMG_1313.jpg.html)


Then for some reason you said you would report back to us this April?

Actually I had a 3.8 in college thanks. Look up Ad Hominem. Thanks. Strong interest in philosophy here. Thousands of hours of audiobooks consumed in a long commute because I bought my house at the wrong time and refused to sell.

I will post my gains next year. For the record:
DIS @ 92.54
AAPL @ 125
ESCA @ 15.55
PAH @ 26.63
F @ 15.80

For the last time. I have an employee discount through my mom. No sales load for me.
I will let the numbers speak next April. You have the floor. I'm done here

I am just wondering how you got +12.99% on that since that is the gain you posted above?  Maybe you had different weighting as I just had 1 share each But Disney is only up 9.66% from your position so I am still struggling to get to +12.99%  Did you mean negative?
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: ender on April 18, 2016, 08:26:16 PM
Wow, sometimes I'm glad other people want to win on the Internet more than me because it lets me munch on:
 (http://cdn-img.easyicon.net/png/5344/534409.gif)
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: mrpercentage on April 18, 2016, 08:41:52 PM
Wow, sometimes I'm glad other people want to win on the Internet more than me because it lets me munch on:
 (http://cdn-img.easyicon.net/png/5344/534409.gif)

I was going to respond but you are absolutely right. The history between what he quotes and now is known and time stamped. In his mind passive investing into Vanguard is the only way. Who am I to prove him wrong? I forged snap shots of mint and my 457 account-- why not-- I have so much to gain by presenting programs that carry no fee at all like Robinhood, Computershare, and Shareowner. Seriously... fuck it.

Dueces

Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: Terrestrial on April 18, 2016, 09:10:22 PM
Wow, sometimes I'm glad other people want to win on the Internet more than me because it lets me munch on:
 (http://cdn-img.easyicon.net/png/5344/534409.gif)

I was going to respond but you are absolutely right. The history between what he quotes and now is known and time stamped. In his mind passive investing into Vanguard is the only way. Who am I to prove him wrong? I forged snap shots of mint and my 457 account-- why not-- I have so much to gain by presenting programs that carry no fee at all like Robinhood, Computershare, and Shareowner. Seriously... fuck it.

Dueces

There's quite a large difference between thinking passive investing is the only way to go and simply pointing out that you're historically terrible at recommending stocks by using your own inconvenient quotes to prove his point.

Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: mrpercentage on April 18, 2016, 09:28:50 PM
Its not the first time this has happened. I don't like getting into the whole history.
Yes I took a loss on PAH-- a few hundred. I was pissed about it and resolved to never buy a stock with no dividend again. There is a mistake. It was a bet (just like it sounds) on the CEO and a Hedge fund manager.

Conoco-- the dividend cut did hurt and I stopped buying but held it (another possible big mistake)

Disney-- yes its a forever hold.

My house-- screw you in the face-- all Im gonna say. I hope I get banded for it because I mean it and am not taking it back.

So since I will most likely be banned-- to my own benifit-- I will leave you with this market crushing crap. I know it wont matter because you will pick whatever timeline you like, and the market is going to go to hell soon anyway. Have a nice life

(http://i820.photobucket.com/albums/zz124/azwolf25/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-18%20at%207.08.19%20PM.jpg) (http://s820.photobucket.com/user/azwolf25/media/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-18%20at%207.08.19%20PM.jpg.html)
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: Cycling Stache on April 19, 2016, 03:04:53 AM
So since I will most likely be banned-- to my own benifit-- I will leave you with this market crushing crap. I know it wont matter because you will pick whatever timeline you like, and the market is going to go to hell soon anyway. Have a nice life

Come on, Mr. P, this last quote is not like you.  Your posts are frequently entertaining, and I'm glad you're on the forum.

The pushback you get is because you often seem to be all over the place with your recommendations.  I suspect that just by being on this forum, you're probably doing reasonably well in terms of savings, making smarter spending decisions, and investing at all--because the market does tend to go up (notwithstanding the latest prediction) over the long term.

But the reason buy and hold often works, and the reason why indexing often works, is because there are so many people making bad decisions that are consistently predictable based on behavioral economics.  People buy high and sell low.  They believe they know more than all the money invested in the market.  They believe they can read a balance sheet better than everyone else.  They place bets on things that might go huge, like lottery tickets.  And they believe they're unique and immune from the behavioral mistakes that people consistently make.

A lot of your recommendations and predictions--and you do make a lot of them, which is why you're so well known and probably targeted--often seem to fall right into these traps.  Which is not surprising, because you're human, and these are the common human errors.

Buy and hold indexing works not because it's inherently amazing.  It works because it's a system that prevents people (if you stick to it!) from falling victim to the behavioral errors that happen because you're human.

So please don't try to get yourself banned.  Your posts capture a different view, especially on non-investing topics.  But just understand that you will keep getting the responses like this when you post market predictions or stock recommendations that could go badly for people, most of whom will benefit from buy and hold indexing.

Good stuff.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: wienerdog on April 19, 2016, 05:43:22 AM
So since I will most likely be banned-- to my own benifit-- I will leave you with this market crushing crap. I know it wont matter because you will pick whatever timeline you like, and the market is going to go to hell soon anyway. Have a nice life

(http://i820.photobucket.com/albums/zz124/azwolf25/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-18%20at%207.08.19%20PM.jpg) (http://s820.photobucket.com/user/azwolf25/media/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-18%20at%207.08.19%20PM.jpg.html)

Why would you be banned for making stock picks?  State your positions on the above picks and I'll place another Google calendar reminder for next year.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: Terrestrial on April 19, 2016, 08:43:53 AM
I will leave you with this market crushing crap. I know it wont matter because you will pick whatever timeline you like,

To be fair - you were actually the one who picked/stated the evaluation timeframe a year ago in your post...
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: shotgunwilly on April 19, 2016, 01:16:58 PM
I knew it was a matter of time before Mr Percentage tucked his tail between his legs and ran off yelping.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: Daley on April 19, 2016, 02:05:03 PM
I knew it was a matter of time before Mr Percentage tucked his tail between his legs and ran off yelping.

Now, now... I think the taste of his own foot is sufficient at this point and there's no need to kick the lad while he's clearly down.

It may be easy to revel in schadenfreude, but there's a human being just like yourself at the other end. Self-righteousness, much like pride, can be an insidiously destructive thing to a man's soul, and is immensely damaging when it is stripped away. I just hope that he learns from his mistakes.

Please, go in peace.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: Kaspian on April 19, 2016, 02:42:12 PM
So since I will most likely be banned-- to my own benifit-- I will leave you with this market crushing crap. I know it wont matter because you will pick whatever timeline you like, and the market is going to go to hell soon anyway. Have a nice life

Said somebody in 1973.  I think we can all make the prediction that the market will crash "soon".  "Soon" is never now.  Reminds me of the old bar sign which reads, "All beer is free tomorrow." 

Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: Retire-Canada on April 19, 2016, 04:32:04 PM
(https://farm2.staticflickr.com/1672/26504912836_574c926228_z.jpg)

I'm not going to lie to you people...all this "up" is scaring me. It can't be good. The stock-pocalypse must be coming!

(http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/01980/markets_1980043c.jpg)
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: protostache on April 19, 2016, 05:02:06 PM
(https://farm2.staticflickr.com/1672/26504912836_574c926228_z.jpg)

I'm not going to lie to you people...all this "up" is scaring me. It can't be good. The stock-pocalypse must be coming!

(http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/01980/markets_1980043c.jpg)

Market goes up, market goes down, market goes sideways. Pick your investments defensively and you won't suffer in most any situation. Good defense can mean broad, low-cost index funds. It can also mean a heavy bond allocation. It can mean picking individual stocks based on quality (consistent total return due to a large moat, competent management, lack of financial shenanigans and industries that doesn't typically get hit during a recession) purchased with a good margin of safety.

The latter option is harder than the other two in almost every way, but it's not impossible.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: Scandium on April 21, 2016, 01:04:25 PM
So since I will most likely be banned-- to my own benifit-- I will leave you with this market crushing crap. I know it wont matter because you will pick whatever timeline you like, and the market is going to go to hell soon anyway. Have a nice life

Come on, Mr. P, this last quote is not like you.  Your posts are frequently entertaining, and I'm glad you're on the forum.

The pushback you get is because you often seem to be all over the place with your recommendations. I suspect that just by being on this forum, you're probably doing reasonably well in terms of savings, making smarter spending decisions, and investing at all--because the market does tend to go up (notwithstanding the latest prediction) over the long term.

well.. sure you're not giving him too much credit? I just remember he sold F at a loss to buy a brand new sporty Focus. Because ..something? And that's with an underwater house.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: Kaspian on April 21, 2016, 01:27:49 PM
This seems like a textbook case study in both "recency bias" and "performance chasing".   Even the title of the thread shows recency bias when it was posted April 5. 
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: Terrestrial on April 21, 2016, 02:22:04 PM
Good news - tomorrow's Earth Day. 
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: Retire-Canada on April 21, 2016, 02:37:21 PM
Good news - tomorrow's Earth Day.

Enjoy it. It's probably the last one before the Dow crashes to destruction and civilization as we know it ends. ;)
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: steveo on April 21, 2016, 03:15:32 PM
So since I will most likely be banned-- to my own benifit-- I will leave you with this market crushing crap. I know it wont matter because you will pick whatever timeline you like, and the market is going to go to hell soon anyway. Have a nice life

Come on, Mr. P, this last quote is not like you.  Your posts are frequently entertaining, and I'm glad you're on the forum.

The pushback you get is because you often seem to be all over the place with your recommendations.  I suspect that just by being on this forum, you're probably doing reasonably well in terms of savings, making smarter spending decisions, and investing at all--because the market does tend to go up (notwithstanding the latest prediction) over the long term.

But the reason buy and hold often works, and the reason why indexing often works, is because there are so many people making bad decisions that are consistently predictable based on behavioral economics.  People buy high and sell low.  They believe they know more than all the money invested in the market.  They believe they can read a balance sheet better than everyone else.  They place bets on things that might go huge, like lottery tickets.  And they believe they're unique and immune from the behavioral mistakes that people consistently make.

A lot of your recommendations and predictions--and you do make a lot of them, which is why you're so well known and probably targeted--often seem to fall right into these traps.  Which is not surprising, because you're human, and these are the common human errors.

Buy and hold indexing works not because it's inherently amazing.  It works because it's a system that prevents people (if you stick to it!) from falling victim to the behavioral errors that happen because you're human.

So please don't try to get yourself banned.  Your posts capture a different view, especially on non-investing topics.  But just understand that you will keep getting the responses like this when you post market predictions or stock recommendations that could go badly for people, most of whom will benefit from buy and hold indexing.

Good stuff.

Great post.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: OneCoolCat on April 21, 2016, 03:32:27 PM
tagging
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: Metric Mouse on April 22, 2016, 06:09:44 AM
Good news - tomorrow's Earth Day.

Enjoy it. It's probably the last one before the Dow crashes to destruction and civilization as we know it ends. ;)

On the plus side, if that were to happen, it would be pretty great for the Earth!
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: Retire-Canada on April 22, 2016, 07:06:10 AM
On the plus side, if that were to happen, it would be pretty great for the Earth!

I was thinking the same thing. :)
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: Terrestrial on April 22, 2016, 08:10:22 AM
Personally I'm to busy lamenting my massive market losses to really celebrate Earth day at all.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: wienerdog on April 22, 2016, 08:53:15 AM
Here it comes!  Straight down to 16000.  Mr. P was right.   I hope he has his bonds locked and loaded.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: 2Birds1Stone on April 28, 2016, 01:45:45 PM
Here's your drop playa
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: Terrestrial on April 28, 2016, 02:28:41 PM
Here's your drop playa

Aaaggghh - meltdown.  I only still have more money today from investments than when this thread was started.  Disaster!!
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: bobechs on April 28, 2016, 05:42:47 PM
Here's your drop playa

Aaaggghh - meltdown.  I only still have more money today from investments than when this thread was started.  Disaster!!

Disaster ain't the word for it.  Shield your eyes now,...


(http://markets.money.cnn.com/cgi-bin/upload.dll/file.png?z05ec0f0az82f7978b8c48485681d60f3b844c8519)
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: VaCPA on April 28, 2016, 06:00:22 PM
I transferred my old IRA to Vanguard and sold the crappy funds Tuesday. Takes 3 business days to clear they said. Tank baby!
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: Metric Mouse on April 28, 2016, 06:01:11 PM
I transferred my old IRA to Vanguard and sold the crappy funds Tuesday. Takes 3 business days to clear they said. Tank baby!

Market timer!!! Good luck!
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: Trevor Reznik on April 28, 2016, 06:02:37 PM
We are descending into the abyss!  Brace yourselves.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: wienerdog on April 28, 2016, 07:47:52 PM
Too bad Mr. P didn't follow through on his #6 suggestion of Dreamworks.  DWA up from 25 last April to 40 today.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: bobechs on April 28, 2016, 08:03:06 PM
We are descending into the abyss!  Brace yourselves.

Only one more trading day for May to come early.

If it's going to happen at all, it's got to happen right now.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: mrpercentage on April 28, 2016, 08:36:00 PM
Go ahead and gloat. I was clearly wrong about it coming early. It went up for absolutely no reason or good news. Even Bogle was on CNBC talking about the crappy dividends and being over valued and lower future returns.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: MrDelane on April 28, 2016, 09:44:47 PM
Go ahead and gloat.
No reason for anyone to gloat.
30 days gives you until May 9th.

Go ahead a laugh away. You guys did the same thing after I said sell because of the Disney crash. What happened? Within a couple of weeks a 1000 point drop. I don't think it will be quite so bad but I do think its coming-- and within the next 30 days. Cant tell you the exact date but if Im wrong I will be holding 3 months of bonds.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: Tyson on April 28, 2016, 11:48:31 PM
The market crashers sound almost exactly like religious apocalypse doomsayers - they make a prediction, it turns out wrong, but rather than reconsider their view, the double down and just move the date of the supposed disaster. 
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: Terrestrial on April 29, 2016, 06:37:38 AM
The market crashers sound almost exactly like religious apocalypse doomsayers - they make a prediction, it turns out wrong, but rather than reconsider their view, the double down and just move the date of the supposed disaster.

Exactly.  The over arching point essentially is - yes at some point the market will correct/crash/etc, just as it has dozens and dozens of times before.  But - holding out of big run ups waiting for that crash is historically an exercise in futility and underperformance. People were squawking about the same thing in 2012 after the market doubled off it's lows over 3 years that a massive correction was inevitable after such a big run - and the market is only up another what, 50% since then? Its very much 'can't see the forest for the trees'.

On a broader point, am I saying the crash callers are 'wrong' right now and that we won't see a pullback? - No.  I have no idea, they could be totally right.  My point is only that (1) it doesn't matter in a long term investment strategy, and (2) people are likely to do themselves more harm than good worrying about it.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: VaCPA on April 29, 2016, 06:51:13 AM
The market crashers sound almost exactly like religious apocalypse doomsayers - they make a prediction, it turns out wrong, but rather than reconsider their view, the double down and just move the date of the supposed disaster.

It's true. They know markets go through normal downturns so it will happen at some point. And they're counting on nobody remembering all the times they were wrong but when they're right then can hang their hat on it. This is especially useful for all the ones selling books online.

I will say I don't mind the discussions of when the market will go down. Even though it's extremely difficult to predict with any accuracy I appreciate when people have well thought out reasoning behind it. Can make for interesting discussion
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: Metric Mouse on April 29, 2016, 07:12:03 AM
The market crashers sound almost exactly like religious apocalypse doomsayers - they make a prediction, it turns out wrong, but rather than reconsider their view, the double down and just move the date of the supposed disaster.

This is actually a very interesting pyschological phenomenon. When people invest considerable mental attachment to an idea and it turns out wrong, rather than reconsider the idea they dive in even deeper. It's fascinating. One of the very difficult aspects of 'deprogramming' cult members and the like.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: Retire-Canada on April 29, 2016, 07:40:55 AM

I will say I don't mind the discussions of when the market will go down. Even though it's extremely difficult to predict with any accuracy I appreciate when people have well thought out reasoning behind it. Can make for interesting discussion

For the most part I am tired of the doomer crap. Typically I don't see people post actionable rationale information that is useful. It's lots of "I've got the secret sauce" or "My gut tells me..." nonsense.

If anyone could actually predict what the market was going to do with some accuracy they would be partying on their private island celebrating their latest billion not posting about it here.

If it's not actionable it's just a lot of negative noise that's not productive.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: bobechs on April 29, 2016, 08:08:12 AM

No reason for anyone to gloat.
30 days gives you until May 9th.



Well, to be precise -and I can see you are all into precision- the date you want to use is a few-days-later recasting of the original prediction which was based on the (flakey) principle that the Dow must go down in May, but that this year this inevitable market swing was going to be early.

Earlier than May is April.  April is almost over.  There is still time for a 1000-pt, 10% or other precipitate Ar-May-geddon drop in the Dow.  But not much time.

Then we get to see if the bedrock market timing idea of a scheduled big correction in May comes to pass.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: 2Birds1Stone on April 29, 2016, 08:14:27 AM
Not a bad year so far......
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: VaCPA on April 29, 2016, 08:43:00 AM

I will say I don't mind the discussions of when the market will go down. Even though it's extremely difficult to predict with any accuracy I appreciate when people have well thought out reasoning behind it. Can make for interesting discussion

For the most part I am tired of the doomer crap. Typically I don't see people post actionable rationale information that is useful. It's lots of "I've got the secret sauce" or "My gut tells me..." nonsense.

If anyone could actually predict what the market was going to do with some accuracy they would be partying on their private island celebrating their latest billion not posting about it here.

If it's not actionable it's just a lot of negative noise that's not productive.

True. But at the end of the day it's just a discussion about the financial markets, which I sometimes find interesting(regardless if the person is a bull/bear/somewhere in between) as long as there's sound analytical thought behind it.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: Retire-Canada on April 29, 2016, 09:02:51 AM
True. But at the end of the day it's just a discussion about the financial markets, which I sometimes find interesting(regardless if the person is a bull/bear/somewhere in between) as long as there's sound analytical thought behind it.

Would you say this thread is show casing sound analytical thought regarding a crash in US equities?
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: VaCPA on April 29, 2016, 09:07:32 AM
True. But at the end of the day it's just a discussion about the financial markets, which I sometimes find interesting(regardless if the person is a bull/bear/somewhere in between) as long as there's sound analytical thought behind it.

Would you say this thread is show casing sound analytical thought regarding a crash in US equities?

This thread not so much. There is another thread currently going with about 10 pages that had some interesting analytical discussion though on why markets could be overvalued.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: GuitarStv on April 29, 2016, 09:28:32 AM
The market crashers sound almost exactly like religious apocalypse doomsayers - they make a prediction, it turns out wrong, but rather than reconsider their view, the double down and just move the date of the supposed disaster.

The religious apocalypse guys are actually in a much worse situation.  If you get it wrong, you look like an idiot.  If you get it right, there's nobody to brag to.  Very lose-lose.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: dixonge on April 29, 2016, 10:13:57 AM
This thread reminds me of a forum I used to frequent. One guy would spend about 6-12 months of solid, rapid-fire posts making fun of Christianity (over-the-top, but funny) and then re-convert and apologize for his previous posts and spend another 6-12 months in heated debates about how wonderful Jesus was. And then back. And then back again. He was bi-polar and on-and-off of his meds. And yes, he actually lived with his mother even though he was 40+. After awhile it got tiring to welcome him back into the fold (depending on which camp you were a member of) only to have him turn around and make fun of your position. Again. And again.

His condition turned him into a troll, in effect. And no matter how they become a troll, you should never feed them...
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: Tyson on April 29, 2016, 03:02:11 PM
It's amazing how infrequently people actually change any of their beliefs.  Particularly if that belief is tied to a broader identity.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: mrpercentage on April 29, 2016, 04:48:27 PM
The thing I don't understand is why anyone who already has it all figured out would come into a forum  for any discussion at all. I think you all secretly love an crave wild predictions precisely to see if they come to pass. Sometimes I oblige by providing one.  I do openly admit that I fully reject market efficiency hypothesis. It is utter nonsense that says you can sell stock for what people will currently pay for it--- no duh.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: wienerdog on April 30, 2016, 01:23:25 PM
Sometimes I oblige by providing one.
   

As an update my new position is OHI. It was a large sum for me. Up to now my direct stock return for my other positions is 12.99% for a year and some positions have only been held 6 months.

so there you have it
Omega Healthcare REIT. Its name is fitting because it will be the last large purchase for me this year.
It's yield on cost is 6.54%

go ahead and short away.


Code: [Select]
Name               Symbol Last price Change      Shares    Cost basis Mkt value Gain   Gain % Day's gain Overall return
Omega Healthcare... OHI         33.77 -0.21 (-0.62%) 1.00     35.59        33.77  -1.82   -5.11% -0.22         -5.11%

Did anyone short it?  You would be up 5.11%.  Not bad for 1/2 month return.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: forummm on April 30, 2016, 06:45:01 PM
Didn't one guy make a bunch of money shorting the stocks that Cramer recommended?
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: mrpercentage on April 30, 2016, 09:19:32 PM
Sometimes I oblige by providing one.
   

As an update my new position is OHI. It was a large sum for me. Up to now my direct stock return for my other positions is 12.99% for a year and some positions have only been held 6 months.

so there you have it
Omega Healthcare REIT. Its name is fitting because it will be the last large purchase for me this year.
It's yield on cost is 6.54%

go ahead and short away.


Code: [Select]
Name               Symbol Last price Change      Shares    Cost basis Mkt value Gain   Gain % Day's gain Overall return
Omega Healthcare... OHI         33.77 -0.21 (-0.62%) 1.00     35.59        33.77  -1.82   -5.11% -0.22         -5.11%

Did anyone short it?  You would be up 5.11%.  Not bad for 1/2 month return.
Dividend is next month. You going to pay It? If you short you will have too. In the same way if there is a big enough short I will begin buying as much as I can. That's worked more than once for me before. I like buying heavily shorted things I believe will not go out of business. The cover will come eventually. I didn't even buy it for equity
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: wienerdog on April 30, 2016, 09:58:20 PM
I am just a stupid indexer remember that is the only thing I know so there would be no way I would short anything.  Did I get your position right?  I just took the price at the close on the 18th.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: mrpercentage on April 30, 2016, 10:14:55 PM
Negative it's $35.50. Purchased because healthcare REITs are hated at the moment and it sports a yield % almost the size of my Johnson and its rock solid. As much as I love these little chats, it is past my bed time, nighty-nite
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: dixonge on May 01, 2016, 04:25:44 AM
May selling coming early? I think so.

I knew I wouldn't have to wait long for 100+ drop in the Dow. I think we will have some more in the not too distant future. I have money parked in bonds waiting for another opening like this one

So you had your opening - as of April 7 the Dow dropped over 100 points. So I guess you sold some bonds and grabbed you some Dow stocks?
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: forummm on May 01, 2016, 06:37:29 AM
Negative it's $35.50. Purchased because healthcare REITs are hated at the moment and it sports a yield % almost the size of my Johnson and its rock solid. As much as I love these little chats, it is past my bed time, nighty-nite

Yours is 6.8 cm?

Wow, this thread has gotten a little Trumpy.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: wienerdog on May 01, 2016, 07:24:27 AM
Negative it's $35.50.

Got it.  Thanks for the update as I just used the close on the 18th.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: forummm on May 01, 2016, 09:56:34 AM
Sometimes I oblige by providing one.
   

As an update my new position is OHI. It was a large sum for me. Up to now my direct stock return for my other positions is 12.99% for a year and some positions have only been held 6 months.

so there you have it
Omega Healthcare REIT. Its name is fitting because it will be the last large purchase for me this year.
It's yield on cost is 6.54%

go ahead and short away.


Code: [Select]
Name               Symbol Last price Change      Shares    Cost basis Mkt value Gain   Gain % Day's gain Overall return
Omega Healthcare... OHI         33.77 -0.21 (-0.62%) 1.00     35.59        33.77  -1.82   -5.11% -0.22         -5.11%

Did anyone short it?  You would be up 5.11%.  Not bad for 1/2 month return.
Dividend is next month. You going to pay It? If you short you will have too.

Won't the stock price drop by about the amount of the dividend after the exdiv date? So being short would be about net zero change on that day, other than normal daily share price fluctuations. So you'd still be up about 5% if you had shorted.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: mrpercentage on May 01, 2016, 04:26:20 PM
Sometimes I oblige by providing one.
   

As an update my new position is OHI. It was a large sum for me. Up to now my direct stock return for my other positions is 12.99% for a year and some positions have only been held 6 months.

so there you have it
Omega Healthcare REIT. Its name is fitting because it will be the last large purchase for me this year.
It's yield on cost is 6.54%

go ahead and short away.


Code: [Select]
Name               Symbol Last price Change      Shares    Cost basis Mkt value Gain   Gain % Day's gain Overall return
Omega Healthcare... OHI         33.77 -0.21 (-0.62%) 1.00     35.59        33.77  -1.82   -5.11% -0.22         -5.11%

Did anyone short it?  You would be up 5.11%.  Not bad for 1/2 month return.
Dividend is next month. You going to pay It? If you short you will have too.

Won't the stock price drop by about the amount of the dividend after the exdiv date? So being short would be about net zero change on that day, other than normal daily share price fluctuations. So you'd still be up about 5% if you had shorted.

Nice theory-- you can try it. If you sell someone's stock you have to pay them their dividends. Shorts are usually wary of the dividend dates and pay respect to large dividends. Me.. I could really care less. Im happy for the return I have, but a hard rally in a stock makes me want to stop buying it. They are direct stock purchases on purpose. This lowers fees and also makes it more expensive to sell with less control and more hassle. I don't plan on selling them so if any are down for a while that is most likely what I am buying more of at the moment. You have seen my actual hold portfolio and know my thoughts on the matter. Cant really say Im holding out on you. Its beating the market at the moment by a lot. It is also beating the market on yield by twice. I posted it mostly because I was being accused of lying. Though I will not continue doing this for long because its a waste of time. When I get my extra check later in the year I might break into Proctor & Gamble or back into Ford as a direct purchase this time-- maybe Mattel or AT&T of Verizon or maybe 3 other REITS Im eyeballing. I need to up my January dividends, while also trying to keep any company from providing anymore that 20% of my total yield. There you have it-- I don't like buying things that yield less than 3% and I prefer it to be 5% or above. If I keep it up the yield will match my monthly purchase within 2 years.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: frugledoc on May 02, 2016, 01:35:52 PM
You are not seriously thinking of buying something just to "increase your January dividends"?  That is a stupid investment strategy
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: 2Birds1Stone on May 02, 2016, 01:38:49 PM
You are not seriously thinking of buying something just to "increase your January dividends"?  That is a stupid investment strategy

No one claimed to be smart here =D
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: forummm on May 02, 2016, 01:53:02 PM
You are not seriously thinking of buying something just to "increase your January dividends"?  That is a stupid investment strategy

Hey man, January dividends buy twice as many bottles of booze as February ones.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: MrDelane on May 09, 2016, 05:57:42 PM
Go ahead and gloat.
No reason for anyone to gloat.
30 days gives you until May 9th.

Go ahead a laugh away. You guys did the same thing after I said sell because of the Disney crash. What happened? Within a couple of weeks a 1000 point drop. I don't think it will be quite so bad but I do think its coming-- and within the next 30 days. Cant tell you the exact date but if Im wrong I will be holding 3 months of bonds.


For anyone who is curious, here is where we wound up after 30 days:
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: forummm on May 09, 2016, 06:37:52 PM
Go ahead and gloat.
No reason for anyone to gloat.
30 days gives you until May 9th.

Go ahead a laugh away. You guys did the same thing after I said sell because of the Disney crash. What happened? Within a couple of weeks a 1000 point drop. I don't think it will be quite so bad but I do think its coming-- and within the next 30 days. Cant tell you the exact date but if Im wrong I will be holding 3 months of bonds.


For anyone who is curious, here is where we wound up after 30 days:
    APRIL 9th:  17,576.96
    MAY 9th:  17,705.91

    Total gain of 128.95

Yeah, well if you account for inflation....
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: Tyson on May 09, 2016, 07:16:47 PM
I have to admit, this is pretty funny and I am still laughing.  Haha, red dow, indeed.  We should get this guy posting in the Keith123 threads...
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: dividendman on May 10, 2016, 04:14:21 PM
Kinda funny, I think one of his picks was Disney. It's down 5% today while the DOW... and VEU/VTI/VOO etc. is up significantly.

I made a comment earlier in the thread about starting a fund that just shorts mrpercentage's picks... should have done it :(
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: MVal on May 10, 2016, 04:24:55 PM
(http://i820.photobucket.com/albums/zz124/azwolf25/Mobile%20Uploads/75B4DF8F-358F-435B-B04D-0A33E303C889.jpg) (http://s820.photobucket.com/user/azwolf25/media/Mobile%20Uploads/75B4DF8F-358F-435B-B04D-0A33E303C889.jpg.html)

My company actually got to ring the opening bell sometime last week, which I thought was pretty cool. So glad to be working for company that is on top of their game and be stashing all my great salary from them. I'm thankful for the great foundation I'm getting to build for my savings.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: Retire-Canada on May 24, 2016, 09:51:03 AM
I've been too scared too look lately. Is the DOW carnage over? Should I buy more chainsaws and shotgun shells or is the stock-pocalypse over?

Be gentle.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: fattest_foot on May 24, 2016, 09:55:15 AM
I have to admit, this is pretty funny and I am still laughing.  Haha, red dow, indeed.  We should get this guy posting in the Keith123 threads...

I'm getting to the point where I'd really like to see the market take a dip. This sideways action for so long is getting a bit old.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: TheAnonOne on May 24, 2016, 11:47:03 AM
I have to admit, this is pretty funny and I am still laughing.  Haha, red dow, indeed.  We should get this guy posting in the Keith123 threads...

I'm getting to the point where I'd really like to see the market take a dip. This sideways action for so long is getting a bit old.

Last Sept had a 10-15 percent drop and Feb had the same. It's really only been "Flat" for May (and late April)
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: fattest_foot on May 24, 2016, 12:16:18 PM
It's been at about the same level since 2014.

I suppose there are small gains to be had with dollar cost averaging during those small dips, but overall the market has been in 2 year flat period.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: mjones1234 on May 24, 2016, 12:54:55 PM
I cashed out about 6 weeks ago with some seriously nice gains after the 2000 point run up. Things just seemed to stall out as they inevitably do after that kind of rise. Then, I sat tight for a few weeks to see where things would go. The minute the headline of CNBC announced "Goldman Sachs says sell your stocks!" I piled. I love buying when there's overly negative news all over the market. It's been a nice run over the last week. Solid gains across the board and stops set just below each of them. We'll see where she takes us. Sure wish I would have paid attention to the gaming world and gotten into EA. What a rocket ship.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: Tyson on May 27, 2016, 09:16:09 AM
Ah, I just have to comment on this thread every time I look at my portfolio.  I noticed today that there still hasn't been a giant crash.  Hahahahahaha.

Yes, I know I am being mean here.  But on the other hand, threads like this cause unnecessary fear and panic, based on nothing.  So it deserves to be called out when it falls so utterly, completely flat on its face.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: sol on May 27, 2016, 09:20:18 AM
Ah, I just have to comment on this thread every time I look at my portfolio.  I noticed today that there still hasn't been a giant crash.  Hahahahahaha.

Yes, I know I am being mean here.  But on the other hand, threads like this cause unnecessary fear and panic, based on nothing.  So it deserves to be called out when it falls so utterly, completely flat on its face.

Just wait for.   No, keep waiting.  A little bit longer.  Any day now...

It's a stopped clock, so it will be right eventually.  Any bets on whether we hear any crowing in this thread when the next major market meltdown finally arrives?
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: thd7t on May 27, 2016, 11:18:28 AM
Ah, I just have to comment on this thread every time I look at my portfolio.  I noticed today that there still hasn't been a giant crash.  Hahahahahaha.

Yes, I know I am being mean here.  But on the other hand, threads like this cause unnecessary fear and panic, based on nothing.  So it deserves to be called out when it falls so utterly, completely flat on its face.

Just wait for.   No, keep waiting.  A little bit longer.  Any day now...

It's a stopped clock, so it will be right eventually.  Any bets on whether we hear any crowing in this thread when the next major market meltdown finally arrives?
It probably won't take a major meltdown. People get worked up over 10% drops.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: bobechs on May 27, 2016, 12:47:11 PM
Ah, I just have to comment on this thread every time I look at my portfolio.  I noticed today that there still hasn't been a giant crash.  Hahahahahaha.

Yes, I know I am being mean here.  But on the other hand, threads like this cause unnecessary fear and panic, based on nothing.  So it deserves to be called out when it falls so utterly, completely flat on its face.

Just wait for.   No, keep waiting.  A little bit longer.  Any day now...




It's a stopped clock, so it will be right eventually.  Any bets on whether we hear any crowing in this thread when the next major market meltdown finally arrives?

Remember- this prediction was as specific as Harold Camping's Rapture prediction.  OP said that the set-in-bedrock Dow drop scheduled for every May, past and future, was going to be early this year.

Made in early April the time window for an event to occur before May was somewhat limited -- and has already passed.

It appears that the foundational prediction: that the Dow always goes red in May either did or did not occur.  The month's low is lower than April's low and the month may well end lower than April 30/ May 1 closed/opened.

Looking back over the past two months I would say there was considerable volatility but in sum the index went only sideways.

Read it for yourself, but there is always an October coming up to give heart to bearish market timers, ain't there?

(http://markets.money.cnn.com/cgi-bin/upload.dll/file.png?z0aec0f0az88ae56345dae4fddba4cc04c83c19840)
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: Cycling Stache on May 27, 2016, 01:09:40 PM
Looking back over the past two months I would say there was considerable volatility but in sum the index went only sideways.

Yes, but the key is that my portfolio went up during that time.  That's the power of consistent, persistent investing, rather than trying to time the market on a gut, hunch, best guess, etc.  I know what I don't know, and I invest (and profit) accordingly.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: Tyson on May 27, 2016, 01:15:47 PM
Volatility is not a Red Dow.  Red Dow is a major and sustained drop.

Maybe he just got the timing wrong.  Maybe he really meant June!  Haha, and when June passes without incident, we'll just shift our timeframe to July!  Or October.  Or whatever. 

Red Dow is coming!  If you stay in the market and don't get out in time, you'll regret it.  Maybe not today.  Maybe not tomorrow, but soon, and for the rest of your life.  /snark (and apologies to Casablanca).
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: nereo on May 27, 2016, 01:17:13 PM
TOday's the last day trading in May.  Right now the DJIA is <<0.01% of where we started. Sp500 is up slightly  Since early April we're also up slightly.
Does that mean it's going to tank over the next hour? Oh no!
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: dandarc on May 27, 2016, 01:54:39 PM
TOday's the last day trading in May.  Right now the DJIA is <<0.01% of where we started. Sp500 is up slightly  Since early April we're also up slightly.
Does that mean it's going to tank over the next hour? Oh no!
Still have all of Tuesday - 20% drop coming.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: nereo on May 27, 2016, 01:57:28 PM
TOday's the last day trading in May.  Right now the DJIA is <<0.01% of where we started. Sp500 is up slightly  Since early April we're also up slightly.
Does that mean it's going to tank over the next hour? Oh no!
Still have all of Tuesday - 20% drop coming.

oh crap, you're right!!  "30 days has september, april, june & november...."
bloody tuesday?!
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: James on May 27, 2016, 02:13:16 PM
I cashed out about 6 weeks ago with some seriously nice gains after the 2000 point run up. Things just seemed to stall out as they inevitably do after that kind of rise. Then, I sat tight for a few weeks to see where things would go. The minute the headline of CNBC announced "Goldman Sachs says sell your stocks!" I piled. I love buying when there's overly negative news all over the market. It's been a nice run over the last week. Solid gains across the board and stops set just below each of them. We'll see where she takes us. Sure wish I would have paid attention to the gaming world and gotten into EA. What a rocket ship.


Key is to post here when you make the timing decision, not afterward. That way we can watch along with you and see if you guessed right...
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: sol on May 27, 2016, 03:33:40 PM

Key is to post here when you make the timing decision, not afterward. That way we can watch along with you and see if you guessed right...

Agreed.  We hear a lot of people say "I timed the market and it was awesome" but somehow the only people who actually post their trades in real time fail to have such great stories.

I want to believe that you're a market genius.  Please make some predictions, document what you buy/sell on the day you do it, then come back and gloat about how smart you were. 
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: Greenpez on May 27, 2016, 03:51:08 PM

Key is to post here when you make the timing decision, not afterward. That way we can watch along with you and see if you guessed right...

Agreed.  We hear a lot of people say "I timed the market and it was awesome" but somehow the only people who actually post their trades in real time fail to have such great stories.

I want to believe that you're a market genius.  Please make some predictions, document what you buy/sell on the day you do , then come back and gloat about how smart you were.

 I've accelerated my REIT buying over the past coupla days, tho I havent hit the % I want yet. Feel free to laugh at me when they tank forever starting on tues.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: nereo on May 27, 2016, 03:55:17 PM

Key is to post here when you make the timing decision, not afterward. That way we can watch along with you and see if you guessed right...

Agreed.  We hear a lot of people say "I timed the market and it was awesome" but somehow the only people who actually post their trades in real time fail to have such great stories.

I want to believe that you're a market genius.  Please make some predictions, document what you buy/sell on the day you do it, then come back and gloat about how smart you were.

just a little problem with that... there's a pesky "modify" button for each posting a person makes. 

... but yes, I agree with you here.  Also, how do you tell being lucky from being good?  Last year I was rebalancing and sold a bunch of stuff, then went back to buy only to find the market had taken it's 10% dip.  SHoulda claimed I saw it coming and timed the market!
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: Retire-Canada on May 27, 2016, 04:13:21 PM

just a little problem with that... there's a pesky "modify" button for each posting a person makes. 

One person has to quote that original post and it is locked in....assuming we aren't talking an accomplice who'll change their post exactly to match.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: nereo on May 27, 2016, 04:22:02 PM

just a little problem with that... there's a pesky "modify" button for each posting a person makes. 

One person has to quote that original post and it is locked in....assuming we aren't talking an accomplice who'll change their post exactly to match.

so.... it would be a conspiracy... 
(that ought to fly well around here)
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: thd7t on May 27, 2016, 05:38:45 PM
Also, it gives a "last edited on" date and time.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: mrpercentage on May 27, 2016, 07:16:26 PM
Go ahead and gloat. I was clearly wrong about it coming early. It went up for absolutely no reason or good news. Even Bogle was on CNBC talking about the crappy dividends and being over valued and lower future returns.

^^^^     It seems like I have to repeat myself a lot. I also do that with my children.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: nazar on May 27, 2016, 09:39:43 PM

It appears that the foundational prediction: that the Dow always goes red in May either did or did not occur.

So we have Schrodinger's Market?
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: Trevor Reznik on May 27, 2016, 09:40:27 PM
Go ahead and gloat. I was clearly wrong about it coming early. It went up for absolutely no reason or good news. Even Bogle was on CNBC talking about the crappy dividends and being over valued and lower future returns.

^^^^     It seems like I have to repeat myself a lot. I also do that with my children.

Well it hasn't come early, it hasn't come on schedule (May) either.  Is it coming late?  Go on, make another prediction, or do you need time to watch a little more CNBC first?
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: mrpercentage on May 27, 2016, 09:50:09 PM
Go ahead and gloat. I was clearly wrong about it coming early. It went up for absolutely no reason or good news. Even Bogle was on CNBC talking about the crappy dividends and being over valued and lower future returns.

^^^^     It seems like I have to repeat myself a lot. I also do that with my children.

Well it hasn't come early, it hasn't come on schedule (May) either.  Is it coming late?  Go on, make another prediction, or do you need time to watch a little more CNBC first?


Sure. A correction will hit sometime between now and September 30th. Probably the next rate increase. Meanwhile I already have 15% gross income invested this year (most of it before the rally). No need to rush more in there now is there. CNBC is telling me to sell my biggest holding Exxon... Nope. Ain't doing it. Sorry Fast Money
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: iamlindoro on May 27, 2016, 09:53:20 PM
Go ahead and gloat. I was clearly wrong about it coming early. It went up for absolutely no reason or good news. Even Bogle was on CNBC talking about the crappy dividends and being over valued and lower future returns.

^^^^     It seems like I have to repeat myself a lot. I also do that with my children.

Well it hasn't come early, it hasn't come on schedule (May) either.  Is it coming late?  Go on, make another prediction, or do you need time to watch a little more CNBC first?


Sure. A correction will hit sometime between now and September 30th. Probably the next rate increase. Meanwhile I already have 15% gross income invested this year (most of it before the rally). No need to rush more in there now is there. CNBC is telling me to sell my biggest holding Exxon... Nope. Ain't doing it. Sorry Fast Money

Define correction numerically.  What percentage will the index of your choice correct by? Most define a correction as 10% or more.  Will it be less than 10%? More?  Greater than or equal to?

Current indexes:

Dow Jones: 17,873.22
S&P 500: 2,099.06
NASDAQ: 4,933.50
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: mrpercentage on May 27, 2016, 10:08:39 PM
I respect Carl Sagan way to much to do that. I have read Demon Haunted World a couple of times.

How about 10-20% drop from wherever it is at the moment it happens. I will rotate bonds into Vinix then. Until then I might add a little to my direct stock purchases but that is not buying the general market is it. If I am wrong so what... I will start buying more index in late Sep and rotate my bonds whenever it does correct. I really might just stop investing the rest of the summer. I need to think on that when I'm not buzzed with Yellow Tail
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: thd7t on May 28, 2016, 07:03:47 AM
I respect Carl Sagan way to much to do that. I have read Demon Haunted World a couple of times.

How about 10-20% drop from wherever it is at the moment it happens. I will rotate bonds into Vinix then. Until then I might add a little to my direct stock purchases but that is not buying the general market is it. If I am wrong so what... I will start buying more index in late Sep and rotate my bonds whenever it does correct. I really might just stop investing the rest of the summer. I need to think on that when I'm not buzzed with Yellow Tail
While I disagreed with Mr. O's prediction, and his stock picking strategy, I have to defend him on the following grounds: he is consistently honest when his picks and predictions don't pan out and he actually has always quietly stated that he does a lot of buy and hold index investing. He doesn't make a big deal about the latter, and I don't agree with a lot of his more vocal predictions, but he is honest and a lot of his strategy is conventional.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: ender on May 28, 2016, 09:10:50 AM
I respect Carl Sagan way to much to do that. I have read Demon Haunted World a couple of times.

How about 10-20% drop from wherever it is at the moment it happens. I will rotate bonds into Vinix then. Until then I might add a little to my direct stock purchases but that is not buying the general market is it. If I am wrong so what... I will start buying more index in late Sep and rotate my bonds whenever it does correct. I really might just stop investing the rest of the summer. I need to think on that when I'm not buzzed with Yellow Tail
While I disagreed with Mr. O's prediction, and his stock picking strategy, I have to defend him on the following grounds: he is consistently honest when his picks and predictions don't pan out and he actually has always quietly stated that he does a lot of buy and hold index investing. He doesn't make a big deal about the latter, and I don't agree with a lot of his more vocal predictions, but he is honest and a lot of his strategy is conventional.

+1
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: bobechs on May 28, 2016, 02:21:29 PM

It appears that the foundational prediction: that the Dow always goes red in May either did or did not occur.

So we have Schrodinger's Market?

It ain't a real SM until the dead cat bounces...
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: tyir on May 30, 2016, 10:37:57 PM

It appears that the foundational prediction: that the Dow always goes red in May either did or did not occur.

So we have Schrodinger's Market?

It ain't a real SM until the dead cat bounces...

Half dead cat bounce, at any rate.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: MrMonkeyMustache on May 30, 2016, 11:59:50 PM


How about 10-20% drop from wherever it is at the moment it happens.
If the alternative ia to buy now, why would we care about a drop from the value at some day in e.g. September? The drop should be in relation to now (for us) or the time you went out of the market (for you). And if you are going to say "b-but I'm in booonds!". Feel free to factor that in, but use cold hard numbers and also factor in any lost dividends.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: mrpercentage on May 31, 2016, 10:24:29 AM


How about 10-20% drop from wherever it is at the moment it happens.
If the alternative ia to buy now, why would we care about a drop from the value at some day in e.g. September? The drop should be in relation to now (for us) or the time you went out of the market (for you). And if you are going to say "b-but I'm in booonds!". Feel free to factor that in, but use cold hard numbers and also factor in any lost dividends.

As a side note the American Funds is a Roth 457 that I started but havent been contributing to lately. The traditional and Roth are all displayed together. And its still "beating" the market for now
(http://i820.photobucket.com/albums/zz124/azwolf25/Screen%20Shot%202016-05-31%20at%209.13.14%20AM.jpg)[/URL[URL=http://s820.photobucket.com/user/azwolf25/media/Screen%20Shot%202016-05-31%20at%209.16.21%20AM.jpg.html](http://i820.photobucket.com/albums/zz124/azwolf25/Screen%20Shot%202016-05-31%20at%209.16.21%20AM.jpg) (http://s820.photobucket.com/user/azwolf25/media/Screen%20Shot%202016-05-31%20at%209.13.14%20AM.jpg.html)

I modified to zoom in on the second for you
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: dandarc on May 31, 2016, 11:11:40 AM
May want to read up on the Roth 457, and roll it out to a Roth IRA if you can / want to.

Roth 457 is not exempt from taxation if you withdraw prior to 59.5.  No 10% penalty, but if you withdraw early, you pay taxes on earnings.

Primary benefit of Roth: don't pay tax on withdrawal

Primary benefit of 457: no-hassle withdrawals penalty-free before 59.5.

You'd think Roth + 457 = no tax on withdrawal, even before 59.5, but you'd think wrong, at least as the law currently sits.  Not necessarily a huge deal, but Roth IRA ordering rules would treat you better should you want to get at that money before 59.5 down the road.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: 2Birds1Stone on June 16, 2016, 09:15:09 AM
Guise! Keep your powder dry......I just put $10,000 into VTI/VXUS today.......with my investing history this means we will without a doubt see a huge correction any day now.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: meghan88 on June 16, 2016, 06:28:52 PM
I have some cash that's just waiting for the pre-election shit-storm.  Then it'll go down even more from there once I take the plunge.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: mrpercentage on June 16, 2016, 06:50:21 PM
I will have a whole years pay to put on the line soon. Hopefully posed to strike before the storm hits. I have been heavy on the wine and contemplating my new reality. Mr % skill set vs the pension/annuity payment everyone seems to want. I have done the math and can have my half a million with average rate of return on time for early retirement. The math approves. Only time and God will tell.

Now the real crisis is waiting for the next episode of Game of Thrones. For goodness sake unleash the Mountain and find another reason to show the Red Woman and Daenerys naked-- preferably together
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: flyersman on June 16, 2016, 08:22:12 PM
I will have a whole years pay to put on the line soon. Hopefully posed to strike before the storm hits. I have been heavy on the wine and contemplating my new reality. Mr % skill set vs the pension/annuity payment everyone seems to want. I have done the math and can have my half a million with average rate of return on time for early retirement. The math approves. Only time and God will tell.

Now the real crisis is waiting for the next episode of Game of Thrones. For goodness sake unleash the Mountain and find another reason to show the Red Woman and Daenerys naked-- preferably together

I just out 50k of $150 towards FFstvx on Tuesday. Do you think markets will drop ore election and what month would you put the rest to?
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: forummm on June 17, 2016, 09:43:27 AM
I will have a whole years pay to put on the line soon. Hopefully posed to strike before the storm hits. I have been heavy on the wine and contemplating my new reality. Mr % skill set vs the pension/annuity payment everyone seems to want. I have done the math and can have my half a million with average rate of return on time for early retirement. The math approves. Only time and God will tell.

Now the real crisis is waiting for the next episode of Game of Thrones. For goodness sake unleash the Mountain and find another reason to show the Red Woman and Daenerys naked-- preferably together

Please don't gamble with a year's pay. That's a long time of labor to make up for mistakes.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: Kaspian on June 17, 2016, 12:47:51 PM
I will have a whole years pay to put on the line soon. Hopefully posed to strike before the storm hits. I have been heavy on the wine and contemplating my new reality. Mr % skill set vs the pension/annuity payment everyone seems to want. I have done the math and can have my half a million with average rate of return on time for early retirement. The math approves. Only time and God will tell.

Now the real crisis is waiting for the next episode of Game of Thrones. For goodness sake unleash the Mountain and find another reason to show the Red Woman and Daenerys naked-- preferably together

Please don't gamble with a year's pay. That's a long time of labor to make up for mistakes.

^^This!! 

I have $350 (second pay of every month) to put into investments next week.  I'm pretty sure there'll be a mad sell-off of international as Brexit looms and that's where it'll all be going.  I'm looking forward to the sale!  (And to the inevitable elastic bounce-back.)  Even if it happens, it'll take years for Britain to unravel itself, companies won't be immediately hurt at all, and London will still stay the biggest financial hub.  I like when investors panic for stupid reasons--does nothing but help me out.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: Cycling Stache on June 17, 2016, 02:36:14 PM
I will have a whole years pay to put on the line soon. Hopefully posed to strike before the storm hits. I have been heavy on the wine and contemplating my new reality. Mr % skill set vs the pension/annuity payment everyone seems to want. I have done the math and can have my half a million with average rate of return on time for early retirement. The math approves. Only time and God will tell.

Now the real crisis is waiting for the next episode of Game of Thrones. For goodness sake unleash the Mountain and find another reason to show the Red Woman and Daenerys naked-- preferably together

Please don't gamble with a year's pay. That's a long time of labor to make up for mistakes.

^^This!! 

I have $350 (second pay of every month) to put into investments next week.  I'm pretty sure there'll be a mad sell-off of international as Brexit looms and that's where it'll all be going.  I'm looking forward to the sale!  (And to the inevitable elastic bounce-back.)  Even if it happens, it'll take years for Britain to unravel itself, companies won't be immediately hurt at all, and London will still stay the biggest financial hub.  I like when investors panic for stupid reasons--does nothing but help me out.

This post makes me sad.  It agrees with the previous post recommending that OP not gamble with his money, then immediately recommends market timing based on--wait for it--the ability to predict IRRATIONAL market movements!  In other words, gambling.

I know investor alley is going to be like this, which is why I tell myself not to come to investor alley.  It may end up being correct that the market goes up or down based on predictions of how people will react to a particular event, but the lay person's (or really, anybody's) ability to BETTER predict that outcome is suspect. 

That said, I'm investing next week.  Because my pay check automatically feeds to Vanguard, and it happens to be a pay day. 
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: mrpercentage on June 17, 2016, 05:25:52 PM
Okay I shouldn't drink and type, but holding a years pay in cash or short term annuity to time entry into an index like the S&P 500 is not gambling. Not even close. Now if I cashed out and put it all into Exxon (not a bad idea), I would understand the gripe. I mean I would have to pay a lot of taxes to do that

Just curious, does anyone else have a spread sheet showing how much per wage hour they get from their dividend stocks? I do. (total annual dividends) divided by 52 divided by 40.  Then I add it to my wage and watch my hourly wage increase every time I invest.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: Cyaphas on June 17, 2016, 06:42:44 PM


Just curious, does anyone else have a spread sheet showing how much per wage hour they get from their dividend stocks? I do. (total annual dividends) divided by 52 divided by 40.  Then I add it to my wage and watch my hourly wage increase every time I invest.


I do not. It definitely sounds like something I'll probably do in the future.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: Kaspian on June 20, 2016, 01:39:39 PM
This post makes me sad.  It agrees with the previous post recommending that OP not gamble with his money, then immediately recommends market timing based on--wait for it--the ability to predict IRRATIONAL market movements!  In other words, gambling.

Nope, I don't time--don't be sad.  As part of my 50% savings plan I have an auto-contribute every two weeks into my asset allocation. I always have to manually add more money ($350) after my second paycheque because on that one there isn't rent/bills coming out.  Always on the 19th of the month (or the closest working day after).  It goes into my asset allocation but occasionally (if things are way, way off) it will go into the under-performer to help rebalance.  If my 20% international allocation was super down, that's where it would go.  But as of this moment, it's not--so they're going into all the funds as per usual.  I'd never, ever advocate storing cash with intent to timing or gambling.  I was just hoping all the markets would be a little down on my monthly manual-buy day.  But they're not.  Money goes in anyway. 
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: Cycling Stache on June 20, 2016, 06:20:52 PM
This post makes me sad.  It agrees with the previous post recommending that OP not gamble with his money, then immediately recommends market timing based on--wait for it--the ability to predict IRRATIONAL market movements!  In other words, gambling.

Nope, I don't time--don't be sad.  As part of my 50% savings plan I have an auto-contribute every two weeks into my asset allocation. I always have to manually add more money ($350) after my second paycheque because on that one there isn't rent/bills coming out.  Always on the 19th of the month (or the closest working day after).  It goes into my asset allocation but occasionally (if things are way, way off) it will go into the under-performer to help rebalance.  If my 20% international allocation was super down, that's where it would go.  But as of this moment, it's not--so they're going into all the funds as per usual.  I'd never, ever advocate storing cash with intent to timing or gambling.  I was just hoping all the markets would be a little down on my monthly manual-buy day.  But they're not.  Money goes in anyway.

Okay, fair points, and glad to hear.  This thread started with the prediction of an imminent market downturn that still has not happened, so it probably unfairly colors all the posts thereafter.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: mrpercentage on June 21, 2016, 10:42:47 AM
Must be close to a correction because I really really want to throw all my money in the market right now with no real reason to do so
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: thd7t on June 21, 2016, 10:47:34 AM
Must be close to a correction because I really really want to throw all my money in the market right now with no real reason to do so
With your recent personal circumstances, (and good news) you probably feel inclined toward a change, regardless of forecasting.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: Terrestrial on June 23, 2016, 08:38:14 AM
I'm pretty sure there'll be a mad sell-off of international as Brexit looms and that's where it'll all be going.  I'm looking forward to the sale!  (And to the inevitable elastic bounce-back.)  Even if it happens, it'll take years for Britain to unravel itself, companies won't be immediately hurt at all, and London will still stay the biggest financial hub.  I like when investors panic for stupid reasons--does nothing but help me out.

How'd this work out...The day this was posted was actually the low for the past month and the S&P is 1.5% higher since then (less than a week).    International markets have actually done much better, the British market has surged 4% in a straight line up the past week, German market over 5%.  Those are heavy gains to miss hoping for a sale.   That's the problem with these predictions - history tells us that in general the market will go up....is this a guarantee of the future, no...but it's the best we have to go on.  Most of the time calls for correction will likely be wrong.  If one waits long enough, yes eventually they will be right - but at what cost.  If the market goes up 20% before the 10% correction materializes is that a 'win'?
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: Kaspian on June 23, 2016, 10:27:29 AM
I'm pretty sure there'll be a mad sell-off of international as Brexit looms and that's where it'll all be going.  I'm looking forward to the sale!  (And to the inevitable elastic bounce-back.)  Even if it happens, it'll take years for Britain to unravel itself, companies won't be immediately hurt at all, and London will still stay the biggest financial hub.  I like when investors panic for stupid reasons--does nothing but help me out.

How'd this work out...The day this was posted was actually the low for the past month and the S&P is 1.5% higher since then (less than a week).    International markets have actually done much better, the British market has surged 4% in a straight line up the past week, German market over 5%.  Those are heavy gains to miss hoping for a sale.   That's the problem with these predictions - history tells us that in general the market will go up....is this a guarantee of the future, no...but it's the best we have to go on.  Most of the time calls for correction will likely be wrong.  If one waits long enough, yes eventually they will be right - but at what cost.  If the market goes up 20% before the 10% correction materializes is that a 'win'?

Honestly (I promise!), it wasn't timing--I was just hoping for a sale to put in cash that was supposed to go in anyway on a specific monthly date (the 19th (20th given that the 19th was a Sunday)).   I'm glad I don't predict, 'cause you're 100% damn right--my "pretty sure" of a "mad selloff" was completely wrong.  But I was hoping it'd be down and not up.  Like I said, every paycheque does an autopurchase but on the 19th of the month I add another $350.  Most of the time it goes in evenly, but if one asset class is way out of line it goes to help rebalance the underperformer.   ...No underperformer this time around.  :/
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: mrpercentage on June 23, 2016, 09:33:42 PM
This is what I was waiting for. I can't see into the future but this sort of thing happens. I just wait for it. I hope none of you get hurt. Play safe. Proactive not reactive
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: dividendman on June 24, 2016, 08:26:35 AM
This is what I was waiting for. I can't see into the future but this sort of thing happens. I just wait for it. I hope none of you get hurt. Play safe. Proactive not reactive

Bwa? The DJIA is down 2% today. It was up 1.5% yesterday... is this really anything? (DJIA wise - i realize VEU/VXUS are getting hammered a bit).

Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: 2Birds1Stone on June 24, 2016, 08:33:40 AM
This is what I was waiting for. I can't see into the future but this sort of thing happens. I just wait for it. I hope none of you get hurt. Play safe. Proactive not reactive

LOL VTI is down 2.24% today -_- Whoop de doo. Still way above what it was when this thread first started.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: iamlindoro on June 24, 2016, 08:56:49 AM
This is what I was waiting for.

Proactive not reactive

DOES NOT COMPUTE
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: BFGirl on June 24, 2016, 08:59:33 AM
This is what I was waiting for. I can't see into the future but this sort of thing happens. I just wait for it. I hope none of you get hurt. Play safe. Proactive not reactive

LOL VTI is down 2.24% today -_- Whoop de doo. Still way above what it was when this thread first started.

I thought about buying VTI at the opening, but the drop was just not as bad as I expected.  I put in a limit order instead to buy if the price drops low enough over the next few weeks. 
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: forummm on June 24, 2016, 10:59:25 AM
This is what I was waiting for. I can't see into the future but this sort of thing happens. I just wait for it. I hope none of you get hurt. Play safe. Proactive not reactive

By waiting, you've still lost money. You've lost the gains (even after today's dip--which I think is a big overreaction) and the dividends. Don't play games with the market. The only thing you know almost for sure is that it will go up over the long run.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: Tyson on June 24, 2016, 11:07:29 AM
This is what I was waiting for.

Proactive not reactive

DOES NOT COMPUTE

Sure it does - he was actively waiting!  :D
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: mrpercentage on June 24, 2016, 05:20:42 PM
not true

I'm in a prime position to do something. I'm not moving yet though because this is just starting.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: mrpercentage on June 24, 2016, 05:21:49 PM
I think I will have a full years pay ready just in time
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: marty998 on June 24, 2016, 05:42:49 PM
Mate hit the buzzer with half of it now.

If it keeps tanking, you can double down, if it steadies and dead cat bounces then you've at least got a piece of the action.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: mrpercentage on June 24, 2016, 05:55:50 PM
I'm not completely out. Most of my index money is in the two bonds funds below and they are going in the right direction. I have a lot of dividend stocks too

(http://i820.photobucket.com/albums/zz124/azwolf25/Mobile%20Uploads/E7ABDAAD-0BFF-428A-9D61-0B5EEDDA302E.png) (http://s820.photobucket.com/user/azwolf25/media/Mobile%20Uploads/E7ABDAAD-0BFF-428A-9D61-0B5EEDDA302E.png.html)
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: thd7t on June 24, 2016, 06:55:53 PM
I think I will have a full years pay ready just in time
Some of that timing has to do with your roll-over, though and wasn't planned back in early April.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: wienerdog on June 24, 2016, 07:20:15 PM
As an update my new position is OHI. It was a large sum for me. Up to now my direct stock return for my other positions is 12.99% for a year and some positions have only been held 6 months.

so there you have it
Omega Healthcare REIT. Its name is fitting because it will be the last large purchase for me this year.
It's yield on cost is 6.54%

go ahead and short away.


Code: [Select]
Name               Symbol Last price Change         Shares Cost basis Mkt value Gain Gain % Day's gain Overall return
Omega Healthcare... OHI 32.61          +0.15  (0.46%) 1.00 35.50             32.61 -2.89 -8.14% +0.15          -8.14%

His large sum and last purchase for the year was up for the day!  -8.14% for 2 months isn't a bad return compared to his picks from last April.  I guess that $0.58 dividend on April 28th did make it only a loss of 6.5%.  Not bad compared to the rest of his picks from April 2015.  Seems odd he is always crushing the S&P 500 but any picks that I follow seem to tank.

Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: mrpercentage on June 24, 2016, 08:04:41 PM
As an update my new position is OHI. It was a large sum for me. Up to now my direct stock return for my other positions is 12.99% for a year and some positions have only been held 6 months.

so there you have it
Omega Healthcare REIT. Its name is fitting because it will be the last large purchase for me this year.
It's yield on cost is 6.54%

go ahead and short away.


Code: [Select]
Name               Symbol Last price Change         Shares Cost basis Mkt value Gain Gain % Day's gain Overall return
Omega Healthcare... OHI 32.61          +0.15  (0.46%) 1.00 35.50             32.61 -2.89 -8.14% +0.15          -8.14%

His large sum and last purchase for the year was up for the day!  -8.14% for 2 months isn't a bad return compared to his picks from last April.  I guess that $0.58 dividend on April 28th did make it only a loss of 6.5%.  Not bad compared to the rest of his picks from April 2015.  Seems odd he is always crushing the S&P 500 but any picks that I follow seem to tank.

Im really starting to like you wiener. Ironically that was up today. Go figure. I am keeping it. Its already paid me once.

Now tell me about this Brexit rally I should be all excited about you permabull! I wana hear all about it!
I have already listed all my positions and even did screen shots of my 457. I feel like Im doing all the work in this relationship. Come on. Show me your wiener positions!
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: Cyaphas on June 24, 2016, 08:17:20 PM
Come on. Show me your wiener positions!

I don't think critics often realize how easy it is to criticize than it is to do.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: mrpercentage on June 24, 2016, 09:05:53 PM
In good spirits, wine, and my own curiosity here are the most recent purchases. If I sold I will tell you so:

Conoco
9/23/15
9/30/15
10/7/15
11/4/15
11/25/15
11/30/15
12/4/15
12/7/15
12/11/15
12/24/15
1/15/16
1/26/16
1/28/16
2/11/16
2/25/16
2/11/16
2/25/16
3/4/16
6/6/16

EPR
12/15/15
1/15/16
2/16/16
3/15/16
4/15/16
5/15/16
6/16/16

Exxon

9/25/15
10/2/15
10/9/15
11/6/15
12/8/15
12/15/15
12/18/15
1/8/16
1/21/16
2/5/16
2/22/16
3/7/16
3/15/16
3/21/16
5/3/16
6/15/16
6/24/16

Kinder Morgan

12/11/15

Omega Healthcare Investors

4/15/16
5/16/16
6/15/16

Pinnacle West Capital

1/14/16
1/21/16
1/28/16
3/1/16
3/3/16
4/21/16
5/19/16
6/1/16

Nordic American Tankers
5/31/16
6/7/16
6/10/16
6/17/16

Apple
5/16/16 BUY
5/31/15 SELL

Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: wienerdog on June 24, 2016, 09:11:46 PM
Come on. Show me your wiener positions!

I don't think critics often realize how easy it is to criticize than it is to do.

Funny when I post  Mr. P's picks from April 2015 that he said he would update in 1 year he says that isn't what he owns then posts his 457 account.  I finally nail him down on OHI at 35.50 and that has matched his other picks from 2015 except Disney.  He cherry picks what he wants to show or when you show him his picks from last year he says that isn't what he owns.  Many have asked since he brags so much to post his individual positions so they can be independently audited.  Crickets....

Update:  Looks like he has posted now but that doesn't match what he was talking about last April so at this point I really don't know what to believe.  Bravo to Mr. P if this one is true!

Now we see who the critic is claiming someone else is a critic.  401K and Vanguard for the past year.

Mr. P doesn't own VTI that I know I just put it in for comparison.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: mrpercentage on June 24, 2016, 09:17:00 PM
Come on. Show me your wiener positions!

I don't think critics often realize how easy it is to criticize than it is to do.

Funny when I post  Mr. P's picks from April 2015 that he said he would update in 1 year he says that isn't what he owns then posts his 457 account.  I finally nail him down on OHI at 35.50 and that has matched his other picks from 2015 except Disney.  He cherry picks what he wants to show or when you show him his picks from last year he says that isn't what he owns.  Many have asked since he brags so much to post his individual positions so they can be independently audited.  Crickets....

Now we see who the critic is claiming someone else is a critic.  401K and Vanguard for the past year.

Mr. P doesn't own VTI that I know I just put it in for comparison.

I left out Disney because that is my oldest purchase of the bunch Feb 2015 @92 and I left out Reality Income which is in a different acount that I purchased when it yield 5%. It now yields 3.6%. You don't want me to do the math on that do you? Its fucking huge. I coin tossed between it and Cheveron (that was yielding 6% at the time) and I posted it in this forum.

No cherry picking
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: mrpercentage on June 24, 2016, 09:38:44 PM
I also admit that I purposely remove dollar amounts. My amount (although a lot % of annual income to me might seem small to you) Google a police officers wage and its not hard to figure out. Cut off one mans finger and its the same if he is thin or fat. I try not to let the numbers become the distraction because they would be. The % is the level playing field. Nice gains. I have a wicked buzz and only two days left of this nasty work. I can't wait to get my hands on my pension but for the record it would be sitting in a 457 in Vanguard total bond index. End of Report. Good night
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: wienerdog on June 24, 2016, 09:44:53 PM
1. Apple-- they are an unstoppable force. For the next 5 years at least. Apple watch is sold out-- proving the doubters wrong once again.
2. Disney-- they get their own outline.
    a. THEY OWN STAR WARS
    b. THEY OWN STAR WARS
    c. They own ESPN
    d. They are building a Disney land in China. China has a billion people. Disney land in China. Again in China.
    e. Every movie they have made still sells at full price. Jungle Book is $25 and they made that shit in the 60's. And people still buy it.
    f. They own ABC15
    g. Its up 13,676% from its opening price and its still going. I made 12.6% in one month. Last month if I remember right.

3. PAH because their CEO came out and said his stock was going to be $200. That took balls and Im betting on it. They have a cash flow model and that works.
4. Ford because despite popular opinion they have watched everyone else die and they are still here.
5. Lack of sleep has VOIDED this comment
6. Dreamworks-- they are an upcoming Disney
7. ESCA-- because they are the only publicly traded archery stock. They own Bear, and that is bad ass.

It doesn't take numbers to recognize greatness

0 out 6 isn't bad from last years predictions....  Could have just lost 2.41% following the S&P 500.  I hope he was heavily weighted on Dreamworks as it only lost 4.01%.

PAH is only down ~65% since April '15.  That's not THAT bad.  You only need a 22 bagger to get to 200 at this point - it could happen.  And what better reason could there be for buying a stock than 'their CEO said it would go up'.  I know nothing of the company but did a quick google - good news MP there's now a class action lawsuit to recover losses.

http://www.rosenlegal.com/cases-861.html

On the bright side ESCA is only down ~40% over that time.  Much better than PAH.   Archery must not be 'in season' at the moment.

The ~15% drops from AAPL and F look downright rosy compared to those two.

Whatever. I don't even have to say how out of context that is. That is simply not what I own. If you dug that deep you are well aware of all of all  that I posted with screenshots

I still like Apple, Ford, and Disney. Ford is the only one that pays high enough to maintain that interest today. Their sales merit a price double what it is today but their are too many cab taking Wall Street idiots who think uber is going to take over the world and I that will ditch my car to rent an autonomous car a hooker with scabbies puked in. No thanks I have a 38 mile trip and kids to pick up

That is very odd.  You sure were happy about those 2 weeks later:

which is drawing down the least?......... BOOM!



(http://i820.photobucket.com/albums/zz124/azwolf25/IMG_1313.jpg) (http://s820.photobucket.com/user/azwolf25/media/IMG_1313.jpg.html)


Then for some reason you said you would report back to us this April?

Actually I had a 3.8 in college thanks. Look up Ad Hominem. Thanks. Strong interest in philosophy here. Thousands of hours of audiobooks consumed in a long commute because I bought my house at the wrong time and refused to sell.

I will post my gains next year. For the record:
DIS @ 92.54
AAPL @ 125
ESCA @ 15.55
PAH @ 26.63
F @ 15.80

For the last time. I have an employee discount through my mom. No sales load for me.
I will let the numbers speak next April. You have the floor. I'm done here

I am just wondering how you got +12.99% on that since that is the gain you posted above?  Maybe you had different weighting as I just had 1 share each But Disney is only up 9.66% from your position so I am still struggling to get to +12.99%  Did you mean negative?

I still go back to your posts from April 2015.  When did you sell those?  Why does all your purchases start at September?  Seems odd that oil dropped below $50 a barrel in August and all your positions start in oil in September.  What did you do from April to September?  Post all the money you have put in and your returns for the last year.  How hard is that? 
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: wienerdog on June 24, 2016, 10:00:04 PM
I also admit that I purposely remove dollar amounts. My amount (although a lot % of annual income to me might seem small to you) Google a police officers wage and its not hard to figure out.

I thank you for your service to the community as in these times it is getting more and more rough and the pay isn't going up.

No amount is small. It all depends on what you live on and what you save.  A bunch of my amount for Vanguard was IRA rollovers from a couple old 401ks that were sitting around.  It is not like I could actually put that much in from salary.  MMM just showed me the numbers and now I use Vanguard and am just a stupid indexer.  Bought in today on foreign etfs that were down to balance things out as I just stick to the plan.  Probably be buying more at the next paycheck in 2 weeks as that is the plan and I am sure they will be down more.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: mrpercentage on June 25, 2016, 08:44:09 AM
October mostly. They (the post you refer to) were liquidated mostly then. It was all in a Ford topic I took down because I let it get too personal. It went into my house and all kinds of nonsense. Nothing like completely honest discussions with random people on the internet.

My head hurts.

% out

------
Edited just to add that projecting those stocks (PAH, ESCA, F, AAPL) as a win for one year later was clearly wrong. God has made it a point to put it in your heart to humble me with it. He likes to remind me who provides and sometimes does it often to not allow blessings to get to my head. Obviously my current holdings reflect building into companies I would like to own that pay a good portion of their earning in dividends. I also have a habit of only listing companies that I am actively investing in. Companies I have invested in (that I don't even watch-- I know that is unthinkable) are often not mentioned because they simply are not on my radar even though they are in my account. Really small trades are not even mentioned. I left out NM and a couple of others as when stacked against my actual investments mean nothing really. Also, anytime I say that I am beating the index Im talking currently. That is not a declaration that those stocks will forever beat the index. It seems so inflammatory around here that I think I will avoid saying it in the future. (okay probably not because Im going to beat the index)

Anyways. There is the explanation. Im going to let this die now but don't you worry. Like the Phoenix a Red Dow thread will rise again.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: forummm on June 26, 2016, 10:50:03 AM
1. Apple-- they are an unstoppable force. For the next 5 years at least. Apple watch is sold out-- proving the doubters wrong once again.
2. Disney-- they get their own outline.
    a. THEY OWN STAR WARS
    b. THEY OWN STAR WARS
    c. They own ESPN
    d. They are building a Disney land in China. China has a billion people. Disney land in China. Again in China.
    e. Every movie they have made still sells at full price. Jungle Book is $25 and they made that shit in the 60's. And people still buy it.
    f. They own ABC15
    g. Its up 13,676% from its opening price and its still going. I made 12.6% in one month. Last month if I remember right.

3. PAH because their CEO came out and said his stock was going to be $200. That took balls and Im betting on it. They have a cash flow model and that works.
4. Ford because despite popular opinion they have watched everyone else die and they are still here.
5. Lack of sleep has VOIDED this comment
6. Dreamworks-- they are an upcoming Disney
7. ESCA-- because they are the only publicly traded archery stock. They own Bear, and that is bad ass.

It doesn't take numbers to recognize greatness

0 out 6 isn't bad from last years predictions....  Could have just lost 2.41% following the S&P 500.  I hope he was heavily weighted on Dreamworks as it only lost 4.01%.

PAH is only down ~65% since April '15.  That's not THAT bad.  You only need a 22 bagger to get to 200 at this point - it could happen.  And what better reason could there be for buying a stock than 'their CEO said it would go up'.  I know nothing of the company but did a quick google - good news MP there's now a class action lawsuit to recover losses.

http://www.rosenlegal.com/cases-861.html

On the bright side ESCA is only down ~40% over that time.  Much better than PAH.   Archery must not be 'in season' at the moment.

The ~15% drops from AAPL and F look downright rosy compared to those two.

Whatever. I don't even have to say how out of context that is. That is simply not what I own. If you dug that deep you are well aware of all of all  that I posted with screenshots

I still like Apple, Ford, and Disney. Ford is the only one that pays high enough to maintain that interest today. Their sales merit a price double what it is today but their are too many cab taking Wall Street idiots who think uber is going to take over the world and I that will ditch my car to rent an autonomous car a hooker with scabbies puked in. No thanks I have a 38 mile trip and kids to pick up

That is very odd.  You sure were happy about those 2 weeks later:

which is drawing down the least?......... BOOM!



(http://i820.photobucket.com/albums/zz124/azwolf25/IMG_1313.jpg) (http://s820.photobucket.com/user/azwolf25/media/IMG_1313.jpg.html)


Then for some reason you said you would report back to us this April?

Actually I had a 3.8 in college thanks. Look up Ad Hominem. Thanks. Strong interest in philosophy here. Thousands of hours of audiobooks consumed in a long commute because I bought my house at the wrong time and refused to sell.

I will post my gains next year. For the record:
DIS @ 92.54
AAPL @ 125
ESCA @ 15.55
PAH @ 26.63
F @ 15.80

For the last time. I have an employee discount through my mom. No sales load for me.
I will let the numbers speak next April. You have the floor. I'm done here

I am just wondering how you got +12.99% on that since that is the gain you posted above?  Maybe you had different weighting as I just had 1 share each But Disney is only up 9.66% from your position so I am still struggling to get to +12.99%  Did you mean negative?

I still go back to your posts from April 2015.  When did you sell those?  Why does all your purchases start at September?  Seems odd that oil dropped below $50 a barrel in August and all your positions start in oil in September.  What did you do from April to September?  Post all the money you have put in and your returns for the last year.  How hard is that? 

So in April '15 you were talking up:
AAPL --was at 130.7 then. Is 93.4 now. 29% loss
DIS --was at 109.6 then. Is 95.7 now. 13% loss
ESCA --was at 18.5 then. Is 9.8 now.  47% loss
F -- was at 15.8 then. Is 12.5 now. 21% loss
PAH -- was at 26.7 then. Is 8.6 now. 68% loss

Holy crap, that's a lot of losses.

Meanwhile, VOO went from 193.1 to 186.5. 3% loss.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: mrpercentage on June 26, 2016, 12:29:48 PM
Right now Im talking up cash and bonds. You better watch out boy
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: frugledoc on June 26, 2016, 02:29:20 PM
Right now Im talking up cash and bonds. You better watch out boy

thank you for the continued entertainment.

I know the day will come when you will finally admit that you cannot beat the market and sell everything and just buy the index. 
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: Cyaphas on June 26, 2016, 02:34:58 PM
Right now Im talking up cash and bonds. You better watch out boy

thank you for the continued entertainment.

I know the day will come when you will finally admit that you cannot beat the market and sell everything and just buy the index.

It's so easy to make that statement when the FED has held interest rates at 0.0 for 8 years, the longest time in history.

Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: mrpercentage on June 26, 2016, 06:39:30 PM
Right now Im talking up cash and bonds. You better watch out boy

thank you for the continued entertainment.

I know the day will come when you will finally admit that you cannot beat the market and sell everything and just buy the index.

Well for the record I am directly responsible for 5 people contributing to VINIX in a 457. I held their hand and walked them through the online sign up process. I am also indirectly responsible for probably another half dozen 457 sign ups. With some I put them in a short term annuities because they couldn't tolerate market volatility. I am responsible for a couple of more moving their funds from highest fees of our options (they were already signed up) to variations of Vanguard. The sad thing is all they needed was a little nudge. Shame on the rep. They obviously overlook the true potential of investors, but then again I had their best interest at heart-- so be it. God looking out

For the short time. I will step out of the way if I see a bus coming. If it lowers my return (it may) then so be it. I did not advise anyone else to that. I recommended staying the course provided they have the years.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: forummm on June 27, 2016, 09:41:25 AM
Right now Im talking up cash and bonds. You better watch out boy

thank you for the continued entertainment.

I know the day will come when you will finally admit that you cannot beat the market and sell everything and just buy the index.

It's so easy to make that statement when the FED has held interest rates at 0.0 for 8 years, the longest time in history.



I'm not sure how indexing being better than market timing relates to interest rates. Even when interest rates change, you can get screwed trying to market time. Perhaps more easily.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: forummm on June 27, 2016, 09:42:13 AM
Right now Im talking up cash and bonds. You better watch out boy

So does that mean we're about to have extreme inflation? Or that stocks will rocket up? Or both?
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: Tyson on June 27, 2016, 10:19:48 AM
Right now Im talking up cash and bonds. You better watch out boy

thank you for the continued entertainment.

I know the day will come when you will finally admit that you cannot beat the market and sell everything and just buy the index.

Well for the record I am directly responsible for 5 people contributing to VINIX in a 457. I held their hand and walked them through the online sign up process. I am also indirectly responsible for probably another half dozen 457 sign ups. With some I put them in a short term annuities because they couldn't tolerate market volatility. I am responsible for a couple of more moving their funds from highest fees of our options (they were already signed up) to variations of Vanguard. The sad thing is all they needed was a little nudge. Shame on the rep. They obviously overlook the true potential of investors, but then again I had their best interest at heart-- so be it. God looking out

For the short time. I will step out of the way if I see a bus coming. If it lowers my return (it may) then so be it. I did not advise anyone else to that. I recommended staying the course provided they have the years.

The danger, as I see it, is that you get it right a couple of times in the beginning and then you develop  the mindset of "hey, I can beat/time the market!"  And it's that mindset that's going to get you in to trouble.  You can't pick winners and you can't time the market.   No one can.  It's a fools errand. 

If you are like me, you probably have to learn this the hard way because you think "well just a few simple logical rules will let me get ahead of everyone else because I'm smarter/stronger/more disciplined, etc...".  Here's the thing - when you take losses (and you will), it will be important that you don't let it hurt your pride, causing you to double down on your under-performing timing behavior.  It's important that once you start to have losses that you cut those losses by re-visiting your approach to trying to pick winners and time things.  It's humbling (trust me) but necessary....
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: Metric Mouse on June 27, 2016, 07:50:17 PM
Right now Im talking up cash and bonds. You better watch out boy

thank you for the continued entertainment.

I know the day will come when you will finally admit that you cannot beat the market and sell everything and just buy the index.

Well for the record I am directly responsible for 5 people contributing to VINIX in a 457. I held their hand and walked them through the online sign up process. I am also indirectly responsible for probably another half dozen 457 sign ups. With some I put them in a short term annuities because they couldn't tolerate market volatility. I am responsible for a couple of more moving their funds from highest fees of our options (they were already signed up) to variations of Vanguard. The sad thing is all they needed was a little nudge. Shame on the rep. They obviously overlook the true potential of investors, but then again I had their best interest at heart-- so be it. God looking out

For the short time. I will step out of the way if I see a bus coming. If it lowers my return (it may) then so be it. I did not advise anyone else to that. I recommended staying the course provided they have the years.

The danger, as I see it, is that you get it right a couple of times in the beginning and then you develop  the mindset of "hey, I can beat/time the market!"  And it's that mindset that's going to get you in to trouble.  You can't pick winners and you can't time the market.   No one can.  It's a fools errand. 

If you are like me, you probably have to learn this the hard way because you think "well just a few simple logical rules will let me get ahead of everyone else because I'm smarter/stronger/more disciplined, etc...".  Here's the thing - when you take losses (and you will), it will be important that you don't let it hurt your pride, causing you to double down on your under-performing timing behavior.  It's important that once you start to have losses that you cut those losses by re-visiting your approach to trying to pick winners and time things.  It's humbling (trust me) but necessary....

So your argument is "Yeah, you could do well, but, you know, you might not, so, like, don't even try."?  I haven't been following the OP's topic enough to know whether they are doing well or not, clearly one can beat the market with a little bit of interest and some effort. Hell, you could do it by holding a portfolio weighted to BRK. De Maso and Wiener have been beating their benchmarks by 2% annualized for twenty (five?) years, and they post their results and suggestions every month. I would hardly call that track record a 'fools errand'. But I'm perhaps more open to risk, since I have such a long timeline to consider.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: 2Birds1Stone on June 29, 2016, 01:04:15 PM
Welp, so much for a 10-20% correction yet again.

I know for a fact that tomorrow the market will either go up or down and I will still own the same shares I do today.

Best of luck on everyone's market timing efforts.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: dandarc on June 29, 2016, 01:19:06 PM
So your argument is "Yeah, you could do well, but, you know, you might not, so, like, don't even try."?  I haven't been following the OP's topic enough to know whether they are doing well or not, clearly one can beat the market with a little bit of interest and some effort. Hell, you could do it by holding a portfolio weighted to BRK. De Maso and Wiener have been beating their benchmarks by 2% annualized for twenty (five?) years, and they post their results and suggestions every month. I would hardly call that track record a 'fools errand'. But I'm perhaps more open to risk, since I have such a long timeline to consider.
I thought the argument was that it is unlikely you can pick stocks / pick managers / market-time successfully over the long term.  The biggest risk, therefore, is convincing yourself that you can and acting accordingly, only to find out that you really can't down the road when there is way more at stake.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: fattest_foot on June 29, 2016, 04:04:53 PM
Welp, so much for a 10-20% correction yet again.

I know for a fact that tomorrow the market will either go up or down and I will still own the same shares I do today.

Best of luck on everyone's market timing efforts.

I thought for sure we'd get a larger drop. But instead, the market remains pretty flat.

Luckily I DCA into an index, so I am able to buy lots of these little dips. They start to add up.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: JAYSLOL on June 29, 2016, 07:45:37 PM
Welp, so much for a 10-20% correction yet again.

I know for a fact that tomorrow the market will either go up or down and I will still own the same shares I do today.

Best of luck on everyone's market timing efforts.

I thought for sure we'd get a larger drop. But instead, the market remains pretty flat.

Luckily I DCA into an index, so I am able to buy lots of these little dips. They start to add up.

Same here, index set on automatic.  I did throw in $1500 early when the market bottomed the other day though.  It was going to be invested soon anyway, might as well be on a down day. 
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: mrpercentage on June 29, 2016, 08:58:04 PM
Well if you look at a bear market chart-- it doesn't go strait down. There is usually small but sharp spikes upward on the way down, down, down. It's summer time and it didn't correct far enough for me so I am sitting still. If I miss out on some gains-- well... it is what it is
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: GuitarStv on June 30, 2016, 05:45:22 AM
Well if you look at a bear market chart-- it doesn't go strait down. There is usually small but sharp spikes upward on the way down, down, down. It's summer time and it didn't correct far enough for me so I am sitting still. If I miss out on some gains-- well... it is what it is

Given the right length of time, has there ever really been a bear market?
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: ender on June 30, 2016, 05:49:21 AM
Welp, so much for a 10-20% correction yet again.

I know for a fact that tomorrow the market will either go up or down and I will still own the same shares I do today.

Best of luck on everyone's market timing efforts.

I thought for sure we'd get a larger drop. But instead, the market remains pretty flat.

Luckily I DCA into an index, so I am able to buy lots of these little dips. They start to add up.

I'm mainly sad my 401k auto withdrawal is the end of the month so it missed going in on Tuesday :(
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: 2Birds1Stone on June 30, 2016, 05:50:04 AM
Mine goes in today as well =D
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: Apocalyptica602 on June 30, 2016, 01:39:23 PM
Well if you look at a bear market chart-- it doesn't go strait down. There is usually small but sharp spikes upward on the way down, down, down. It's summer time and it didn't correct far enough for me so I am sitting still. If I miss out on some gains-- well... it is what it is

Given the right length of time, has there ever really been a bear market?

That's an interesting point. I wonder (backtested) what is the 'minimum' length of time in which the market returned 0% or a positive value.

I.E: "If you bought and hold for at least X.XX years, no matter WHEN you purchased, even the great depression or .com boom or 2008. you wouldn't have lost a penny."
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: dandarc on June 30, 2016, 01:53:04 PM
Well if you look at a bear market chart-- it doesn't go strait down. There is usually small but sharp spikes upward on the way down, down, down. It's summer time and it didn't correct far enough for me so I am sitting still. If I miss out on some gains-- well... it is what it is

Given the right length of time, has there ever really been a bear market?

That's an interesting point. I wonder (backtested) what is the 'minimum' length of time in which the market returned 0% or a positive value.

I.E: "If you bought and hold for at least X.XX years, no matter WHEN you purchased, even the great depression or .com boom or 2008. you wouldn't have lost a penny."
The number was 10 years (maybe less) up until the big crash in 2008/9.  Up until then, there had never been a negative 10-year holding period for a broad basket of US stocks (S&P500).  Not sure of the exact length, but 15 years is almost certainly fitting this definition.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: EarlyStart on July 07, 2016, 07:50:44 PM
Well if you look at a bear market chart-- it doesn't go strait down. There is usually small but sharp spikes upward on the way down, down, down. It's summer time and it didn't correct far enough for me so I am sitting still. If I miss out on some gains-- well... it is what it is

Given the right length of time, has there ever really been a bear market?

That's an interesting point. I wonder (backtested) what is the 'minimum' length of time in which the market returned 0% or a positive value.

I.E: "If you bought and hold for at least X.XX years, no matter WHEN you purchased, even the great depression or .com boom or 2008. you wouldn't have lost a penny."
The number was 10 years (maybe less) up until the big crash in 2008/9.  Up until then, there had never been a negative 10-year holding period for a broad basket of US stocks (S&P500).  Not sure of the exact length, but 15 years is almost certainly fitting this definition.


If you adjust for inflation and include after-tax dividend reinvestment, it's a longer period. Your post made me curious, so I reconstructed it with data I found here: http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data.htm

The data goes back to 1871, so assuming that you paid 20% tax on all dividends and immediately reinvested them, here are some longer periods without a new all-time high:

Peak | New All-time High

1927 | 1954        (27 years)

1968 | 1987        (19 years)

2000 | 2014        (14 years)










Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: 2Birds1Stone on July 11, 2016, 03:49:19 PM
Whelp, I'm still waiting for this bloodbath correction.........fawk.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: Tyson on July 11, 2016, 03:57:36 PM
Clearly you blinked, and missed it.  :D
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: Mr. Green on July 11, 2016, 04:05:35 PM
All time high, baby!

#winning
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: forummm on July 11, 2016, 04:39:33 PM
All time high, baby!

#winning

I rushed over here as soon as I saw the headline. I was expecting someone to make some fun quips.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: Retire-Canada on July 11, 2016, 05:04:30 PM
Reminds me of a Bond theme song: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bFurkDf6WXg
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: boarder42 on July 11, 2016, 05:10:25 PM
Figured this would be up there today
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: 2Birds1Stone on July 11, 2016, 05:34:56 PM
I couldn't help myself guys :)
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: mrpercentage on July 11, 2016, 07:50:25 PM
Now. Now I feel loved. I suspected before but I really feel it now.

My enthusiasm is still high for no reason. My logic says it's crazy, Jaws is in the water and he is hungry, and man the water is so blue. Azure. With sheens of aqua and green. But then again there is that Great White circling and he is saying jump right in there. I'm a friendly dolphin. Teeth? No, no, no... Those are white Doritos. Would you like one? In the face? Jump in there is no red in the water all. 🐬
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: Cyaphas on July 11, 2016, 08:28:21 PM
Now. Now I feel loved. I suspected before but I really feel it now.


Every dog has his day. Today just isn't ours.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: wienerdog on July 12, 2016, 06:18:38 AM
I noticed the big spike selling BND yesterday mid morning.  Was that you?
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: forummm on July 12, 2016, 02:57:37 PM
Reminds me of a Bond theme song: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bFurkDf6WXg

I see Mr% as 007 around 0:55-1:02, and 1:54.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: Paul der Krake on July 12, 2016, 03:06:58 PM
If Mr Percentage is Bond, then Mr Market is the villain.

The hot girl in the Aston Martin is going to show up any minute.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: mrpercentage on July 12, 2016, 08:27:22 PM
Nope. My money is sitting in the Credit Union 457 option. It's literally cash. I don't touch my dividend stocks. They are still there looking at me and demanding a diamond ring for future love. Damn they are expensive
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: forummm on July 13, 2016, 11:10:27 AM
I don't touch my dividend stocks. They are still there looking at me and demanding a diamond ring for future love.

What does this even mean?
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: iamlindoro on July 13, 2016, 11:27:48 AM
What does this even mean?

What does *anything* he says mean?  Every post he makes is some sort of ultra-hyperbolic unjustly-persecuted-hero-complex word salad.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: johnny847 on July 13, 2016, 11:45:48 AM
What does this even mean?

What does *anything* he says mean?  Every post he makes is some sort of ultra-hyperbolic unjustly-persecuted-hero-complex word salad.

Haha I was about to post something along these lines, but you beat me to it. And expressed it better too ;)
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: forummm on July 13, 2016, 11:57:29 AM
What does this even mean?

What does *anything* he says mean?  Every post he makes is some sort of ultra-hyperbolic unjustly-persecuted-hero-complex word salad.

It used to be for sure. But I've seen a marked improvement over time. I can understand (if not agree) with most of it.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: caracarn on July 13, 2016, 12:53:01 PM
A whole thread on market timing and how it works, while we watch it not work.  Truly comedic timing.  Perhaps Mr% is the guy who wrote that book about how the Dow was going to be at 5000 back in 2014.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: mrpercentage on July 13, 2016, 01:15:20 PM
I don't touch my dividend stocks. They are still there looking at me and demanding a diamond ring for future love.

What does this even mean?

I can't buy individual stocks in a 457 silly. Those are direct stock purchases. You know the kind held on a trust so people can't even short those shares. The kind with my name on them. The kind that will send me dividend checks from Exxon with my name on it. That's what it means

It also means I have a hard time justifying any purchases right now
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: Kaspian on July 13, 2016, 01:32:51 PM
Please keep this thread going because doing the exact opposite of everything the OP has posted since April 5th, has proved immensely beneficial to my portfolio. 
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: Metric Mouse on July 13, 2016, 01:42:18 PM
Please keep this thread going because doing the exact opposite of everything the OP has posted since April 5th, has proved immensely beneficial to my portfolio.

Are you market timing based off of an internet random's blog posting?

(http://i.imgur.com/VmHnLxj.jpg)
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: mrpercentage on July 13, 2016, 09:37:54 PM
White Doritos
https://youtu.be/A9QTSyLwd4w?t=43s
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: forummm on July 14, 2016, 01:28:56 PM
I don't touch my dividend stocks. They are still there looking at me and demanding a diamond ring for future love.

What does this even mean?

I can't buy individual stocks in a 457 silly. Those are direct stock purchases. You know the kind held on a trust so people can't even short those shares. The kind with my name on them. The kind that will send me dividend checks from Exxon with my name on it. That's what it means

It also means I have a hard time justifying any purchases right now

I don't understand what any of that has to do with a diamond ring and future love.

Reminds me of a Bond theme song: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bFurkDf6WXg

Now I get this song stuck in my head every day as we keep hitting new all time highs.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: Mr. Green on July 14, 2016, 03:38:12 PM
Reminds me of a Bond theme song: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bFurkDf6WXg
lol. All time high. That's hilarious.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: forummm on July 15, 2016, 10:32:31 AM
(http://images.asos-media.com/inv/media/0/5/0/8/4868050/grey/image1xxl.jpg)
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: mrpercentage on July 15, 2016, 08:09:26 PM
I don't touch my dividend stocks. They are still there looking at me and demanding a diamond ring for future love.

What does this even mean?

I can't buy individual stocks in a 457 silly. Those are direct stock purchases. You know the kind held on a trust so people can't even short those shares. The kind with my name on them. The kind that will send me dividend checks from Exxon with my name on it. That's what it means

It also means I have a hard time justifying any purchases right now

I don't understand what any of that has to do with a diamond ring and future love.

Reminds me of a Bond theme song: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bFurkDf6WXg

Now I get this song stuck in my head every day as we keep hitting new all time highs.

You need to bind yourself to that stock for life to get a return at these levels. Hence the diamond ring. Imagination? And yes, I rolled over my 'bonds' into cash
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: frugledoc on July 16, 2016, 02:39:53 AM
I don't touch my dividend stocks. They are still there looking at me and demanding a diamond ring for future love.

What does this even mean?

I can't buy individual stocks in a 457 silly. Those are direct stock purchases. You know the kind held on a trust so people can't even short those shares. The kind with my name on them. The kind that will send me dividend checks from Exxon with my name on it. That's what it means

It also means I have a hard time justifying any purchases right now

I don't understand what any of that has to do with a diamond ring and future love.

Reminds me of a Bond theme song: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bFurkDf6WXg

Now I get this song stuck in my head every day as we keep hitting new all time highs.

You need to bind yourself to that stock for life to get a return at these levels. Hence the diamond ring. Imagination? And yes, I rolled over my 'bonds' into cash

ahem, what about your divorce from Ford?
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: wienerdog on July 16, 2016, 05:42:25 AM

ahem, what about your divorce from Ford?

I still look at those picks from last year from time to time.  Ford is down 14.11%.  OHI has only been tracked since this April as it was the new pick but it is only down 5.10%.  VTI is at +2.94% over the same span (~April 2015).
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: mrpercentage on July 16, 2016, 09:02:55 AM

ahem, what about your divorce from Ford?

I still look at those picks from last year from time to time.  Ford is down 14.11%.  OHI has only been tracked since this April as it was the new pick but it is only down 5.10%.  VTI is at +2.94% over the same span (~April 2015).

Weak. Like a woman you keep bringing up old shit

[MOD EDIT: No. Read the forum rules.] 
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: frugledoc on July 16, 2016, 11:21:45 AM

ahem, what about your divorce from Ford?

I still look at those picks from last year from time to time.  Ford is down 14.11%.  OHI has only been tracked since this April as it was the new pick but it is only down 5.10%.  VTI is at +2.94% over the same span (~April 2015).

Weak. Like a woman you keep bringing up old shit

Us hormonal long term investors are like that
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: Dollar Slice on July 16, 2016, 11:41:11 AM

ahem, what about your divorce from Ford?

I still look at those picks from last year from time to time.  Ford is down 14.11%.  OHI has only been tracked since this April as it was the new pick but it is only down 5.10%.  VTI is at +2.94% over the same span (~April 2015).

Weak. Like a woman you keep bringing up old shit

That could be the most pathetic response to criticism I've ever seen on a web forum...
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: wienerdog on July 16, 2016, 12:05:01 PM
Weak. Like a woman you keep bringing up old shit

As an update my new position is OHI. It was a large sum for me. Up to now my direct stock return for my other positions is 12.99% for a year and some positions have only been held 6 months.

so there you have it
Omega Healthcare REIT. Its name is fitting because it will be the last large purchase for me this year.
It's yield on cost is 6.54%

go ahead and short away.

-5.1% (after closing up 2.46% Friday), large sum and 12.99% don't compute and that was only 3 months ago.  So far I have only seen a $0.58 dividend on a $35.50 purchase.   

Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: forummm on July 16, 2016, 01:30:59 PM

ahem, what about your divorce from Ford?

I still look at those picks from last year from time to time.  Ford is down 14.11%.  OHI has only been tracked since this April as it was the new pick but it is only down 5.10%.  VTI is at +2.94% over the same span (~April 2015).

It's worse than that.

1. Apple-- they are an unstoppable force. For the next 5 years at least. Apple watch is sold out-- proving the doubters wrong once again.
2. Disney-- they get their own outline.
    a. THEY OWN STAR WARS
    b. THEY OWN STAR WARS
    c. They own ESPN
    d. They are building a Disney land in China. China has a billion people. Disney land in China. Again in China.
    e. Every movie they have made still sells at full price. Jungle Book is $25 and they made that shit in the 60's. And people still buy it.
    f. They own ABC15
    g. Its up 13,676% from its opening price and its still going. I made 12.6% in one month. Last month if I remember right.

3. PAH because their CEO came out and said his stock was going to be $200. That took balls and Im betting on it. They have a cash flow model and that works.
4. Ford because despite popular opinion they have watched everyone else die and they are still here.
5. Lack of sleep has VOIDED this comment
6. Dreamworks-- they are an upcoming Disney
7. ESCA-- because they are the only publicly traded archery stock. They own Bear, and that is bad ass.

It doesn't take numbers to recognize greatness

0 out 6 isn't bad from last years predictions....  Could have just lost 2.41% following the S&P 500.  I hope he was heavily weighted on Dreamworks as it only lost 4.01%.

PAH is only down ~65% since April '15.  That's not THAT bad.  You only need a 22 bagger to get to 200 at this point - it could happen.  And what better reason could there be for buying a stock than 'their CEO said it would go up'.  I know nothing of the company but did a quick google - good news MP there's now a class action lawsuit to recover losses.

http://www.rosenlegal.com/cases-861.html

On the bright side ESCA is only down ~40% over that time.  Much better than PAH.   Archery must not be 'in season' at the moment.

The ~15% drops from AAPL and F look downright rosy compared to those two.

Whatever. I don't even have to say how out of context that is. That is simply not what I own. If you dug that deep you are well aware of all of all  that I posted with screenshots

I still like Apple, Ford, and Disney. Ford is the only one that pays high enough to maintain that interest today. Their sales merit a price double what it is today but their are too many cab taking Wall Street idiots who think uber is going to take over the world and I that will ditch my car to rent an autonomous car a hooker with scabbies puked in. No thanks I have a 38 mile trip and kids to pick up

That is very odd.  You sure were happy about those 2 weeks later:

which is drawing down the least?......... BOOM!



(http://i820.photobucket.com/albums/zz124/azwolf25/IMG_1313.jpg) (http://s820.photobucket.com/user/azwolf25/media/IMG_1313.jpg.html)


Then for some reason you said you would report back to us this April?

Actually I had a 3.8 in college thanks. Look up Ad Hominem. Thanks. Strong interest in philosophy here. Thousands of hours of audiobooks consumed in a long commute because I bought my house at the wrong time and refused to sell.

I will post my gains next year. For the record:
DIS @ 92.54
AAPL @ 125
ESCA @ 15.55
PAH @ 26.63
F @ 15.80

For the last time. I have an employee discount through my mom. No sales load for me.
I will let the numbers speak next April. You have the floor. I'm done here

I am just wondering how you got +12.99% on that since that is the gain you posted above?  Maybe you had different weighting as I just had 1 share each But Disney is only up 9.66% from your position so I am still struggling to get to +12.99%  Did you mean negative?

I still go back to your posts from April 2015.  When did you sell those?  Why does all your purchases start at September?  Seems odd that oil dropped below $50 a barrel in August and all your positions start in oil in September.  What did you do from April to September?  Post all the money you have put in and your returns for the last year.  How hard is that? 


So in April '15 you were talking up:
AAPL --was at 130.7 then. Is 93.4 now. 29% loss
DIS --was at 109.6 then. Is 95.7 now. 13% loss
ESCA --was at 18.5 then. Is 9.8 now.  47% loss
F -- was at 15.8 then. Is 12.5 now. 21% loss
PAH -- was at 26.7 then. Is 8.6 now. 68% loss

Holy crap, that's a lot of losses.

Meanwhile, VOO went from 193.1 to 186.5. 3% loss.

Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: boarder42 on July 16, 2016, 03:58:57 PM
Glad youre not gone this month forummm.  Guy is obviously in a bad spot right now. I know he's fighting back but it's pretty obvious he is a type A who what's that mark Twain quote

"It's not what you don't know that gets you in trouble.

It's what you know for sure that just ain't so"
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: Cycling Stache on July 16, 2016, 05:15:58 PM
Glad youre not gone this month forummm.  Guy is obviously in a bad spot right now. I know he's fighting back but it's pretty obvious he is a type A who what's that mark Twain quote

"It's not what you don't know that gets you in trouble.

It's what you know for sure that just ain't so"

Mr. P. is learning the most painful (and most universal) lesson of all--that he is not special.  It turns out he does not have a beautiful mind, or a unique ability to understand the markets that pretty much nobody else has.  And that's okay.  But it's still a hard lesson to learn in life.  Go easy on him.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: iamlindoro on July 16, 2016, 05:31:53 PM
Mr. P. is learning the most painful (and most universal) lesson of all--that he is not special.  It turns out he does not have a beautiful mind, or a unique ability to understand the markets that pretty much nobody else has.  And that's okay.  But it's still a hard lesson to learn in life.  Go easy on him.

I think the general horse-beating and kicking-while-down is because he *refuses* to learn that lesson. Every time it's pointed out that he has a history of making terrible picks which dismally underperform the market, he makes up some new story about how he already sold that one (despite previous claims that he'll "hold this one for the rest of his life"), or that he never really bought that position in the first place, or he'll take a screenshot of some mobile app that suggests he's somehow up across the board while strategically cutting out the information that would actually prove it. I think that if he would just stop piping up and about what a special snowflake he is, many people would find it a lot easier to empathize with him.

He's a frustrating mix of dishonest and arrogant that really works against him in any effort to fit in here. But then again... I don't think he's trying to fit in. I still think he's a troll.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: 2Birds1Stone on July 17, 2016, 05:33:50 AM
Guise, don't bully the OP...I can see a 50% correction coming sometime in our lifetime. I'll just invest my cash with Mr. P when that happens.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: MissNancyPryor on July 17, 2016, 08:25:08 AM
I thought the (nearly) 50% correction already happened in my lifetime.  Maybe another 2008 is out there. 

PAH?  Because the CEO promised a share price of $200?  Not good.  And that one is down from more than $25 to less than $10 just in the last year.  OP must not have lived through the dot-com bust where pump and dump was a daily circus show on CNBC.  When a CEO starts swinging it around like that I look for the exits, not raise my cup for more kool aid.  Anyone who was actively investing back then should have that lesson forever in their mind.   

A review of OP's posts does show at least one recommendation with a "you are welcome" line like we were just gifted with a gold nugget---a look now at that recommendation yields big negatives.  "No thank you."   
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: Terrestrial on July 17, 2016, 01:09:37 PM
So in April '15 you were talking up:
AAPL --was at 130.7 then. Is 93.4 now. 29% loss
DIS --was at 109.6 then. Is 95.7 now. 13% loss
ESCA --was at 18.5 then. Is 9.8 now.  47% loss
F -- was at 15.8 then. Is 12.5 now. 21% loss
PAH -- was at 26.7 then. Is 8.6 now. 68% loss


Yikes - I've known his picks were bad for a while but dont really track them - Holy S.   

Meanwhile the market hit an all time this week.  I sure hate having the most money I ever have.

Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: forummm on July 17, 2016, 01:41:51 PM
I like Mr%. I want him to be successful and happy. His style is not my style. His thoughts are not my thoughts. But I wish him well. My goal is to challenge his thinking to help him better evaluate his investing philosophy and decisions.

I did find his communication style irritating at first. It can be a bit hard to understand (especially the posts where he says he was drinking). But he's grown on me. And I can follow him most of the time. I like seeing his posts and interacting with him.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: wienerdog on July 17, 2016, 02:01:25 PM
DIS --was at 109.6 then. Is 95.7 now. 13% loss

To be fair I think he has been in Disney for longer than the April '15 but it is awful hard to track as he never really tells you exactly what he is doing.  Many have asked to show all transactions like the guy is doing in the momentum thread but we never get the data.  I have him in Disney at $92.54 so around +7.6%.  I guess many of the others he sold but he won't say what he sold them at and I am sure he doesn't include them in his calculations.  Best strategy is probably to short what he suggests.  All his current numbers are from the oil run up that started in Sept and for some reason the other trades from what I can tell aren't included.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: Cyaphas on July 17, 2016, 02:24:19 PM
It's been a crazy weekend and Sunday isn't over yet. I'm guessing; Down 2% by close monday.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: forummm on July 17, 2016, 04:35:25 PM
DIS --was at 109.6 then. Is 95.7 now. 13% loss

To be fair I think he has been in Disney for longer than the April '15 but it is awful hard to track as he never really tells you exactly what he is doing.  Many have asked to show all transactions like the guy is doing in the momentum thread but we never get the data.  I have him in Disney at $92.54 so around +7.6%.  I guess many of the others he sold but he won't say what he sold them at and I am sure he doesn't include them in his calculations.  Best strategy is probably to short what he suggests.  All his current numbers are from the oil run up that started in Sept and for some reason the other trades from what I can tell aren't included.

Who knows when he initiated the positions. But I quoted his post where he was extolling the virtues of particular stocks on a particular date--i.e. he thought they were all going way up from their values at that time.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: ender on July 17, 2016, 05:57:01 PM
It's been a crazy weekend and Sunday isn't over yet. I'm guessing; Down 2% by close monday.

SP500 futures are up slightly right now, which is what I look at when I need to scratch my "what might stocks do tomorrow" itch ;-)
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: Financial.Velociraptor on July 17, 2016, 07:15:28 PM
Mr% is the second most entertaining member of the forum after Kriegspeil.
Title: Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
Post by: arebelspy on July 18, 2016, 04:45:05 AM
But he's grown on me. And I can follow him most of the time. I like seeing his posts and interacting with him.

+1.  But..

[MOD NOTE: He still has to follow the forum rules, and is taking a temporary break right now due to that.  This thread doesn't seem to be serving any purpose now beyond piling on.  Locking thread.]