Author Topic: Here it comes-- Red Dow  (Read 121828 times)

mrpercentage

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #150 on: April 30, 2016, 09:19:32 PM »
Sometimes I oblige by providing one.
   

As an update my new position is OHI. It was a large sum for me. Up to now my direct stock return for my other positions is 12.99% for a year and some positions have only been held 6 months.

so there you have it
Omega Healthcare REIT. Its name is fitting because it will be the last large purchase for me this year.
It's yield on cost is 6.54%

go ahead and short away.


Code: [Select]
Name               Symbol Last price Change      Shares    Cost basis Mkt value Gain   Gain % Day's gain Overall return
Omega Healthcare... OHI         33.77 -0.21 (-0.62%) 1.00     35.59        33.77  -1.82   -5.11% -0.22         -5.11%

Did anyone short it?  You would be up 5.11%.  Not bad for 1/2 month return.
Dividend is next month. You going to pay It? If you short you will have too. In the same way if there is a big enough short I will begin buying as much as I can. That's worked more than once for me before. I like buying heavily shorted things I believe will not go out of business. The cover will come eventually. I didn't even buy it for equity
« Last Edit: April 30, 2016, 09:24:18 PM by mrpercentage »

wienerdog

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #151 on: April 30, 2016, 09:58:20 PM »
I am just a stupid indexer remember that is the only thing I know so there would be no way I would short anything.  Did I get your position right?  I just took the price at the close on the 18th.

mrpercentage

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #152 on: April 30, 2016, 10:14:55 PM »
Negative it's $35.50. Purchased because healthcare REITs are hated at the moment and it sports a yield % almost the size of my Johnson and its rock solid. As much as I love these little chats, it is past my bed time, nighty-nite

dixonge

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #153 on: May 01, 2016, 04:25:44 AM »
May selling coming early? I think so.

I knew I wouldn't have to wait long for 100+ drop in the Dow. I think we will have some more in the not too distant future. I have money parked in bonds waiting for another opening like this one

So you had your opening - as of April 7 the Dow dropped over 100 points. So I guess you sold some bonds and grabbed you some Dow stocks?

forummm

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #154 on: May 01, 2016, 06:37:29 AM »
Negative it's $35.50. Purchased because healthcare REITs are hated at the moment and it sports a yield % almost the size of my Johnson and its rock solid. As much as I love these little chats, it is past my bed time, nighty-nite

Yours is 6.8 cm?

Wow, this thread has gotten a little Trumpy.

wienerdog

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #155 on: May 01, 2016, 07:24:27 AM »
Negative it's $35.50.

Got it.  Thanks for the update as I just used the close on the 18th.

forummm

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #156 on: May 01, 2016, 09:56:34 AM »
Sometimes I oblige by providing one.
   

As an update my new position is OHI. It was a large sum for me. Up to now my direct stock return for my other positions is 12.99% for a year and some positions have only been held 6 months.

so there you have it
Omega Healthcare REIT. Its name is fitting because it will be the last large purchase for me this year.
It's yield on cost is 6.54%

go ahead and short away.


Code: [Select]
Name               Symbol Last price Change      Shares    Cost basis Mkt value Gain   Gain % Day's gain Overall return
Omega Healthcare... OHI         33.77 -0.21 (-0.62%) 1.00     35.59        33.77  -1.82   -5.11% -0.22         -5.11%

Did anyone short it?  You would be up 5.11%.  Not bad for 1/2 month return.
Dividend is next month. You going to pay It? If you short you will have too.

Won't the stock price drop by about the amount of the dividend after the exdiv date? So being short would be about net zero change on that day, other than normal daily share price fluctuations. So you'd still be up about 5% if you had shorted.

mrpercentage

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #157 on: May 01, 2016, 04:26:20 PM »
Sometimes I oblige by providing one.
   

As an update my new position is OHI. It was a large sum for me. Up to now my direct stock return for my other positions is 12.99% for a year and some positions have only been held 6 months.

so there you have it
Omega Healthcare REIT. Its name is fitting because it will be the last large purchase for me this year.
It's yield on cost is 6.54%

go ahead and short away.


Code: [Select]
Name               Symbol Last price Change      Shares    Cost basis Mkt value Gain   Gain % Day's gain Overall return
Omega Healthcare... OHI         33.77 -0.21 (-0.62%) 1.00     35.59        33.77  -1.82   -5.11% -0.22         -5.11%

Did anyone short it?  You would be up 5.11%.  Not bad for 1/2 month return.
Dividend is next month. You going to pay It? If you short you will have too.

Won't the stock price drop by about the amount of the dividend after the exdiv date? So being short would be about net zero change on that day, other than normal daily share price fluctuations. So you'd still be up about 5% if you had shorted.

Nice theory-- you can try it. If you sell someone's stock you have to pay them their dividends. Shorts are usually wary of the dividend dates and pay respect to large dividends. Me.. I could really care less. Im happy for the return I have, but a hard rally in a stock makes me want to stop buying it. They are direct stock purchases on purpose. This lowers fees and also makes it more expensive to sell with less control and more hassle. I don't plan on selling them so if any are down for a while that is most likely what I am buying more of at the moment. You have seen my actual hold portfolio and know my thoughts on the matter. Cant really say Im holding out on you. Its beating the market at the moment by a lot. It is also beating the market on yield by twice. I posted it mostly because I was being accused of lying. Though I will not continue doing this for long because its a waste of time. When I get my extra check later in the year I might break into Proctor & Gamble or back into Ford as a direct purchase this time-- maybe Mattel or AT&T of Verizon or maybe 3 other REITS Im eyeballing. I need to up my January dividends, while also trying to keep any company from providing anymore that 20% of my total yield. There you have it-- I don't like buying things that yield less than 3% and I prefer it to be 5% or above. If I keep it up the yield will match my monthly purchase within 2 years.

frugledoc

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #158 on: May 02, 2016, 01:35:52 PM »
You are not seriously thinking of buying something just to "increase your January dividends"?  That is a stupid investment strategy

2Birds1Stone

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #159 on: May 02, 2016, 01:38:49 PM »
You are not seriously thinking of buying something just to "increase your January dividends"?  That is a stupid investment strategy

No one claimed to be smart here =D

forummm

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #160 on: May 02, 2016, 01:53:02 PM »
You are not seriously thinking of buying something just to "increase your January dividends"?  That is a stupid investment strategy

Hey man, January dividends buy twice as many bottles of booze as February ones.

MrDelane

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #161 on: May 09, 2016, 05:57:42 PM »
Go ahead and gloat.
No reason for anyone to gloat.
30 days gives you until May 9th.

Go ahead a laugh away. You guys did the same thing after I said sell because of the Disney crash. What happened? Within a couple of weeks a 1000 point drop. I don't think it will be quite so bad but I do think its coming-- and within the next 30 days. Cant tell you the exact date but if Im wrong I will be holding 3 months of bonds.


For anyone who is curious, here is where we wound up after 30 days:
    APRIL 9th:  17,576.96
    MAY 9th:  17,705.91

    Total gain of 128.95

forummm

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #162 on: May 09, 2016, 06:37:52 PM »
Go ahead and gloat.
No reason for anyone to gloat.
30 days gives you until May 9th.

Go ahead a laugh away. You guys did the same thing after I said sell because of the Disney crash. What happened? Within a couple of weeks a 1000 point drop. I don't think it will be quite so bad but I do think its coming-- and within the next 30 days. Cant tell you the exact date but if Im wrong I will be holding 3 months of bonds.


For anyone who is curious, here is where we wound up after 30 days:
    APRIL 9th:  17,576.96
    MAY 9th:  17,705.91

    Total gain of 128.95

Yeah, well if you account for inflation....

Tyson

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #163 on: May 09, 2016, 07:16:47 PM »
I have to admit, this is pretty funny and I am still laughing.  Haha, red dow, indeed.  We should get this guy posting in the Keith123 threads...

dividendman

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #164 on: May 10, 2016, 04:14:21 PM »
Kinda funny, I think one of his picks was Disney. It's down 5% today while the DOW... and VEU/VTI/VOO etc. is up significantly.

I made a comment earlier in the thread about starting a fund that just shorts mrpercentage's picks... should have done it :(

MVal

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #165 on: May 10, 2016, 04:24:55 PM »


My company actually got to ring the opening bell sometime last week, which I thought was pretty cool. So glad to be working for company that is on top of their game and be stashing all my great salary from them. I'm thankful for the great foundation I'm getting to build for my savings.

Retire-Canada

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #166 on: May 24, 2016, 09:51:03 AM »
I've been too scared too look lately. Is the DOW carnage over? Should I buy more chainsaws and shotgun shells or is the stock-pocalypse over?

Be gentle.

fattest_foot

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #167 on: May 24, 2016, 09:55:15 AM »
I have to admit, this is pretty funny and I am still laughing.  Haha, red dow, indeed.  We should get this guy posting in the Keith123 threads...

I'm getting to the point where I'd really like to see the market take a dip. This sideways action for so long is getting a bit old.

TheAnonOne

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #168 on: May 24, 2016, 11:47:03 AM »
I have to admit, this is pretty funny and I am still laughing.  Haha, red dow, indeed.  We should get this guy posting in the Keith123 threads...

I'm getting to the point where I'd really like to see the market take a dip. This sideways action for so long is getting a bit old.

Last Sept had a 10-15 percent drop and Feb had the same. It's really only been "Flat" for May (and late April)

fattest_foot

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #169 on: May 24, 2016, 12:16:18 PM »
It's been at about the same level since 2014.

I suppose there are small gains to be had with dollar cost averaging during those small dips, but overall the market has been in 2 year flat period.

mjones1234

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #170 on: May 24, 2016, 12:54:55 PM »
I cashed out about 6 weeks ago with some seriously nice gains after the 2000 point run up. Things just seemed to stall out as they inevitably do after that kind of rise. Then, I sat tight for a few weeks to see where things would go. The minute the headline of CNBC announced "Goldman Sachs says sell your stocks!" I piled. I love buying when there's overly negative news all over the market. It's been a nice run over the last week. Solid gains across the board and stops set just below each of them. We'll see where she takes us. Sure wish I would have paid attention to the gaming world and gotten into EA. What a rocket ship.

Tyson

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #171 on: May 27, 2016, 09:16:09 AM »
Ah, I just have to comment on this thread every time I look at my portfolio.  I noticed today that there still hasn't been a giant crash.  Hahahahahaha.

Yes, I know I am being mean here.  But on the other hand, threads like this cause unnecessary fear and panic, based on nothing.  So it deserves to be called out when it falls so utterly, completely flat on its face.

sol

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #172 on: May 27, 2016, 09:20:18 AM »
Ah, I just have to comment on this thread every time I look at my portfolio.  I noticed today that there still hasn't been a giant crash.  Hahahahahaha.

Yes, I know I am being mean here.  But on the other hand, threads like this cause unnecessary fear and panic, based on nothing.  So it deserves to be called out when it falls so utterly, completely flat on its face.

Just wait for.   No, keep waiting.  A little bit longer.  Any day now...

It's a stopped clock, so it will be right eventually.  Any bets on whether we hear any crowing in this thread when the next major market meltdown finally arrives?

thd7t

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #173 on: May 27, 2016, 11:18:28 AM »
Ah, I just have to comment on this thread every time I look at my portfolio.  I noticed today that there still hasn't been a giant crash.  Hahahahahaha.

Yes, I know I am being mean here.  But on the other hand, threads like this cause unnecessary fear and panic, based on nothing.  So it deserves to be called out when it falls so utterly, completely flat on its face.

Just wait for.   No, keep waiting.  A little bit longer.  Any day now...

It's a stopped clock, so it will be right eventually.  Any bets on whether we hear any crowing in this thread when the next major market meltdown finally arrives?
It probably won't take a major meltdown. People get worked up over 10% drops.

bobechs

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #174 on: May 27, 2016, 12:47:11 PM »
Ah, I just have to comment on this thread every time I look at my portfolio.  I noticed today that there still hasn't been a giant crash.  Hahahahahaha.

Yes, I know I am being mean here.  But on the other hand, threads like this cause unnecessary fear and panic, based on nothing.  So it deserves to be called out when it falls so utterly, completely flat on its face.

Just wait for.   No, keep waiting.  A little bit longer.  Any day now...




It's a stopped clock, so it will be right eventually.  Any bets on whether we hear any crowing in this thread when the next major market meltdown finally arrives?

Remember- this prediction was as specific as Harold Camping's Rapture prediction.  OP said that the set-in-bedrock Dow drop scheduled for every May, past and future, was going to be early this year.

Made in early April the time window for an event to occur before May was somewhat limited -- and has already passed.

It appears that the foundational prediction: that the Dow always goes red in May either did or did not occur.  The month's low is lower than April's low and the month may well end lower than April 30/ May 1 closed/opened.

Looking back over the past two months I would say there was considerable volatility but in sum the index went only sideways.

Read it for yourself, but there is always an October coming up to give heart to bearish market timers, ain't there?


Cycling Stache

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #175 on: May 27, 2016, 01:09:40 PM »
Looking back over the past two months I would say there was considerable volatility but in sum the index went only sideways.

Yes, but the key is that my portfolio went up during that time.  That's the power of consistent, persistent investing, rather than trying to time the market on a gut, hunch, best guess, etc.  I know what I don't know, and I invest (and profit) accordingly.

Tyson

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #176 on: May 27, 2016, 01:15:47 PM »
Volatility is not a Red Dow.  Red Dow is a major and sustained drop.

Maybe he just got the timing wrong.  Maybe he really meant June!  Haha, and when June passes without incident, we'll just shift our timeframe to July!  Or October.  Or whatever. 

Red Dow is coming!  If you stay in the market and don't get out in time, you'll regret it.  Maybe not today.  Maybe not tomorrow, but soon, and for the rest of your life.  /snark (and apologies to Casablanca).

nereo

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #177 on: May 27, 2016, 01:17:13 PM »
TOday's the last day trading in May.  Right now the DJIA is <<0.01% of where we started. Sp500 is up slightly  Since early April we're also up slightly.
Does that mean it's going to tank over the next hour? Oh no!

dandarc

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #178 on: May 27, 2016, 01:54:39 PM »
TOday's the last day trading in May.  Right now the DJIA is <<0.01% of where we started. Sp500 is up slightly  Since early April we're also up slightly.
Does that mean it's going to tank over the next hour? Oh no!
Still have all of Tuesday - 20% drop coming.

nereo

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #179 on: May 27, 2016, 01:57:28 PM »
TOday's the last day trading in May.  Right now the DJIA is <<0.01% of where we started. Sp500 is up slightly  Since early April we're also up slightly.
Does that mean it's going to tank over the next hour? Oh no!
Still have all of Tuesday - 20% drop coming.

oh crap, you're right!!  "30 days has september, april, june & november...."
bloody tuesday?!

James

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #180 on: May 27, 2016, 02:13:16 PM »
I cashed out about 6 weeks ago with some seriously nice gains after the 2000 point run up. Things just seemed to stall out as they inevitably do after that kind of rise. Then, I sat tight for a few weeks to see where things would go. The minute the headline of CNBC announced "Goldman Sachs says sell your stocks!" I piled. I love buying when there's overly negative news all over the market. It's been a nice run over the last week. Solid gains across the board and stops set just below each of them. We'll see where she takes us. Sure wish I would have paid attention to the gaming world and gotten into EA. What a rocket ship.


Key is to post here when you make the timing decision, not afterward. That way we can watch along with you and see if you guessed right...

sol

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #181 on: May 27, 2016, 03:33:40 PM »

Key is to post here when you make the timing decision, not afterward. That way we can watch along with you and see if you guessed right...

Agreed.  We hear a lot of people say "I timed the market and it was awesome" but somehow the only people who actually post their trades in real time fail to have such great stories.

I want to believe that you're a market genius.  Please make some predictions, document what you buy/sell on the day you do it, then come back and gloat about how smart you were. 

Greenpez

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #182 on: May 27, 2016, 03:51:08 PM »

Key is to post here when you make the timing decision, not afterward. That way we can watch along with you and see if you guessed right...

Agreed.  We hear a lot of people say "I timed the market and it was awesome" but somehow the only people who actually post their trades in real time fail to have such great stories.

I want to believe that you're a market genius.  Please make some predictions, document what you buy/sell on the day you do , then come back and gloat about how smart you were.

 I've accelerated my REIT buying over the past coupla days, tho I havent hit the % I want yet. Feel free to laugh at me when they tank forever starting on tues.
« Last Edit: May 27, 2016, 04:25:11 PM by Greenpez »

nereo

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #183 on: May 27, 2016, 03:55:17 PM »

Key is to post here when you make the timing decision, not afterward. That way we can watch along with you and see if you guessed right...

Agreed.  We hear a lot of people say "I timed the market and it was awesome" but somehow the only people who actually post their trades in real time fail to have such great stories.

I want to believe that you're a market genius.  Please make some predictions, document what you buy/sell on the day you do it, then come back and gloat about how smart you were.

just a little problem with that... there's a pesky "modify" button for each posting a person makes. 

... but yes, I agree with you here.  Also, how do you tell being lucky from being good?  Last year I was rebalancing and sold a bunch of stuff, then went back to buy only to find the market had taken it's 10% dip.  SHoulda claimed I saw it coming and timed the market!

Retire-Canada

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #184 on: May 27, 2016, 04:13:21 PM »

just a little problem with that... there's a pesky "modify" button for each posting a person makes. 

One person has to quote that original post and it is locked in....assuming we aren't talking an accomplice who'll change their post exactly to match.

nereo

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #185 on: May 27, 2016, 04:22:02 PM »

just a little problem with that... there's a pesky "modify" button for each posting a person makes. 

One person has to quote that original post and it is locked in....assuming we aren't talking an accomplice who'll change their post exactly to match.

so.... it would be a conspiracy... 
(that ought to fly well around here)

thd7t

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #186 on: May 27, 2016, 05:38:45 PM »
Also, it gives a "last edited on" date and time.

mrpercentage

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #187 on: May 27, 2016, 07:16:26 PM »
Go ahead and gloat. I was clearly wrong about it coming early. It went up for absolutely no reason or good news. Even Bogle was on CNBC talking about the crappy dividends and being over valued and lower future returns.

^^^^     It seems like I have to repeat myself a lot. I also do that with my children.

nazar

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #188 on: May 27, 2016, 09:39:43 PM »

It appears that the foundational prediction: that the Dow always goes red in May either did or did not occur.

So we have Schrodinger's Market?

Trevor Reznik

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #189 on: May 27, 2016, 09:40:27 PM »
Go ahead and gloat. I was clearly wrong about it coming early. It went up for absolutely no reason or good news. Even Bogle was on CNBC talking about the crappy dividends and being over valued and lower future returns.

^^^^     It seems like I have to repeat myself a lot. I also do that with my children.

Well it hasn't come early, it hasn't come on schedule (May) either.  Is it coming late?  Go on, make another prediction, or do you need time to watch a little more CNBC first?

mrpercentage

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #190 on: May 27, 2016, 09:50:09 PM »
Go ahead and gloat. I was clearly wrong about it coming early. It went up for absolutely no reason or good news. Even Bogle was on CNBC talking about the crappy dividends and being over valued and lower future returns.

^^^^     It seems like I have to repeat myself a lot. I also do that with my children.

Well it hasn't come early, it hasn't come on schedule (May) either.  Is it coming late?  Go on, make another prediction, or do you need time to watch a little more CNBC first?


Sure. A correction will hit sometime between now and September 30th. Probably the next rate increase. Meanwhile I already have 15% gross income invested this year (most of it before the rally). No need to rush more in there now is there. CNBC is telling me to sell my biggest holding Exxon... Nope. Ain't doing it. Sorry Fast Money

iamlindoro

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #191 on: May 27, 2016, 09:53:20 PM »
Go ahead and gloat. I was clearly wrong about it coming early. It went up for absolutely no reason or good news. Even Bogle was on CNBC talking about the crappy dividends and being over valued and lower future returns.

^^^^     It seems like I have to repeat myself a lot. I also do that with my children.

Well it hasn't come early, it hasn't come on schedule (May) either.  Is it coming late?  Go on, make another prediction, or do you need time to watch a little more CNBC first?


Sure. A correction will hit sometime between now and September 30th. Probably the next rate increase. Meanwhile I already have 15% gross income invested this year (most of it before the rally). No need to rush more in there now is there. CNBC is telling me to sell my biggest holding Exxon... Nope. Ain't doing it. Sorry Fast Money

Define correction numerically.  What percentage will the index of your choice correct by? Most define a correction as 10% or more.  Will it be less than 10%? More?  Greater than or equal to?

Current indexes:

Dow Jones: 17,873.22
S&P 500: 2,099.06
NASDAQ: 4,933.50
« Last Edit: May 27, 2016, 10:00:12 PM by iamlindoro »

mrpercentage

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #192 on: May 27, 2016, 10:08:39 PM »
I respect Carl Sagan way to much to do that. I have read Demon Haunted World a couple of times.

How about 10-20% drop from wherever it is at the moment it happens. I will rotate bonds into Vinix then. Until then I might add a little to my direct stock purchases but that is not buying the general market is it. If I am wrong so what... I will start buying more index in late Sep and rotate my bonds whenever it does correct. I really might just stop investing the rest of the summer. I need to think on that when I'm not buzzed with Yellow Tail

thd7t

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #193 on: May 28, 2016, 07:03:47 AM »
I respect Carl Sagan way to much to do that. I have read Demon Haunted World a couple of times.

How about 10-20% drop from wherever it is at the moment it happens. I will rotate bonds into Vinix then. Until then I might add a little to my direct stock purchases but that is not buying the general market is it. If I am wrong so what... I will start buying more index in late Sep and rotate my bonds whenever it does correct. I really might just stop investing the rest of the summer. I need to think on that when I'm not buzzed with Yellow Tail
While I disagreed with Mr. O's prediction, and his stock picking strategy, I have to defend him on the following grounds: he is consistently honest when his picks and predictions don't pan out and he actually has always quietly stated that he does a lot of buy and hold index investing. He doesn't make a big deal about the latter, and I don't agree with a lot of his more vocal predictions, but he is honest and a lot of his strategy is conventional.

ender

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #194 on: May 28, 2016, 09:10:50 AM »
I respect Carl Sagan way to much to do that. I have read Demon Haunted World a couple of times.

How about 10-20% drop from wherever it is at the moment it happens. I will rotate bonds into Vinix then. Until then I might add a little to my direct stock purchases but that is not buying the general market is it. If I am wrong so what... I will start buying more index in late Sep and rotate my bonds whenever it does correct. I really might just stop investing the rest of the summer. I need to think on that when I'm not buzzed with Yellow Tail
While I disagreed with Mr. O's prediction, and his stock picking strategy, I have to defend him on the following grounds: he is consistently honest when his picks and predictions don't pan out and he actually has always quietly stated that he does a lot of buy and hold index investing. He doesn't make a big deal about the latter, and I don't agree with a lot of his more vocal predictions, but he is honest and a lot of his strategy is conventional.

+1

bobechs

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #195 on: May 28, 2016, 02:21:29 PM »

It appears that the foundational prediction: that the Dow always goes red in May either did or did not occur.

So we have Schrodinger's Market?

It ain't a real SM until the dead cat bounces...

tyir

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #196 on: May 30, 2016, 10:37:57 PM »

It appears that the foundational prediction: that the Dow always goes red in May either did or did not occur.

So we have Schrodinger's Market?

It ain't a real SM until the dead cat bounces...

Half dead cat bounce, at any rate.

MrMonkeyMustache

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #197 on: May 30, 2016, 11:59:50 PM »


How about 10-20% drop from wherever it is at the moment it happens.
If the alternative ia to buy now, why would we care about a drop from the value at some day in e.g. September? The drop should be in relation to now (for us) or the time you went out of the market (for you). And if you are going to say "b-but I'm in booonds!". Feel free to factor that in, but use cold hard numbers and also factor in any lost dividends.

mrpercentage

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #198 on: May 31, 2016, 10:24:29 AM »


How about 10-20% drop from wherever it is at the moment it happens.
If the alternative ia to buy now, why would we care about a drop from the value at some day in e.g. September? The drop should be in relation to now (for us) or the time you went out of the market (for you). And if you are going to say "b-but I'm in booonds!". Feel free to factor that in, but use cold hard numbers and also factor in any lost dividends.

As a side note the American Funds is a Roth 457 that I started but havent been contributing to lately. The traditional and Roth are all displayed together. And its still "beating" the market for now
[/URL[URL=http://s820.photobucket.com/user/azwolf25/media/Screen%20Shot%202016-05-31%20at%209.16.21%20AM.jpg.html]

I modified to zoom in on the second for you
« Last Edit: May 31, 2016, 10:30:59 AM by mrpercentage »

dandarc

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #199 on: May 31, 2016, 11:11:40 AM »
May want to read up on the Roth 457, and roll it out to a Roth IRA if you can / want to.

Roth 457 is not exempt from taxation if you withdraw prior to 59.5.  No 10% penalty, but if you withdraw early, you pay taxes on earnings.

Primary benefit of Roth: don't pay tax on withdrawal

Primary benefit of 457: no-hassle withdrawals penalty-free before 59.5.

You'd think Roth + 457 = no tax on withdrawal, even before 59.5, but you'd think wrong, at least as the law currently sits.  Not necessarily a huge deal, but Roth IRA ordering rules would treat you better should you want to get at that money before 59.5 down the road.