Author Topic: Here it comes-- Red Dow  (Read 121829 times)

mrpercentage

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #100 on: April 18, 2016, 04:53:20 PM »
1. Apple-- they are an unstoppable force. For the next 5 years at least. Apple watch is sold out-- proving the doubters wrong once again.
2. Disney-- they get their own outline.
    a. THEY OWN STAR WARS
    b. THEY OWN STAR WARS
    c. They own ESPN
    d. They are building a Disney land in China. China has a billion people. Disney land in China. Again in China.
    e. Every movie they have made still sells at full price. Jungle Book is $25 and they made that shit in the 60's. And people still buy it.
    f. They own ABC15
    g. Its up 13,676% from its opening price and its still going. I made 12.6% in one month. Last month if I remember right.

3. PAH because their CEO came out and said his stock was going to be $200. That took balls and Im betting on it. They have a cash flow model and that works.
4. Ford because despite popular opinion they have watched everyone else die and they are still here.
5. Lack of sleep has VOIDED this comment
6. Dreamworks-- they are an upcoming Disney
7. ESCA-- because they are the only publicly traded archery stock. They own Bear, and that is bad ass.

It doesn't take numbers to recognize greatness

0 out 6 isn't bad from last years predictions....  Could have just lost 2.41% following the S&P 500.  I hope he was heavily weighted on Dreamworks as it only lost 4.01%.

PAH is only down ~65% since April '15.  That's not THAT bad.  You only need a 22 bagger to get to 200 at this point - it could happen.  And what better reason could there be for buying a stock than 'their CEO said it would go up'.  I know nothing of the company but did a quick google - good news MP there's now a class action lawsuit to recover losses.

http://www.rosenlegal.com/cases-861.html

On the bright side ESCA is only down ~40% over that time.  Much better than PAH.   Archery must not be 'in season' at the moment.

The ~15% drops from AAPL and F look downright rosy compared to those two.

Whatever. I don't even have to say how out of context that is. That is simply not what I own. If you dug that deep you are well aware of all of all  that I posted with screenshots

I still like Apple, Ford, and Disney. Ford is the only one that pays high enough to maintain that interest today. Their sales merit a price double what it is today but their are too many cab taking Wall Street idiots who think uber is going to take over the world and I that will ditch my car to rent an autonomous car a hooker with scabbies puked in. No thanks I have a 38 mile trip and kids to pick up

wienerdog

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #101 on: April 18, 2016, 07:59:13 PM »
1. Apple-- they are an unstoppable force. For the next 5 years at least. Apple watch is sold out-- proving the doubters wrong once again.
2. Disney-- they get their own outline.
    a. THEY OWN STAR WARS
    b. THEY OWN STAR WARS
    c. They own ESPN
    d. They are building a Disney land in China. China has a billion people. Disney land in China. Again in China.
    e. Every movie they have made still sells at full price. Jungle Book is $25 and they made that shit in the 60's. And people still buy it.
    f. They own ABC15
    g. Its up 13,676% from its opening price and its still going. I made 12.6% in one month. Last month if I remember right.

3. PAH because their CEO came out and said his stock was going to be $200. That took balls and Im betting on it. They have a cash flow model and that works.
4. Ford because despite popular opinion they have watched everyone else die and they are still here.
5. Lack of sleep has VOIDED this comment
6. Dreamworks-- they are an upcoming Disney
7. ESCA-- because they are the only publicly traded archery stock. They own Bear, and that is bad ass.

It doesn't take numbers to recognize greatness

0 out 6 isn't bad from last years predictions....  Could have just lost 2.41% following the S&P 500.  I hope he was heavily weighted on Dreamworks as it only lost 4.01%.

PAH is only down ~65% since April '15.  That's not THAT bad.  You only need a 22 bagger to get to 200 at this point - it could happen.  And what better reason could there be for buying a stock than 'their CEO said it would go up'.  I know nothing of the company but did a quick google - good news MP there's now a class action lawsuit to recover losses.

http://www.rosenlegal.com/cases-861.html

On the bright side ESCA is only down ~40% over that time.  Much better than PAH.   Archery must not be 'in season' at the moment.

The ~15% drops from AAPL and F look downright rosy compared to those two.

Whatever. I don't even have to say how out of context that is. That is simply not what I own. If you dug that deep you are well aware of all of all  that I posted with screenshots

I still like Apple, Ford, and Disney. Ford is the only one that pays high enough to maintain that interest today. Their sales merit a price double what it is today but their are too many cab taking Wall Street idiots who think uber is going to take over the world and I that will ditch my car to rent an autonomous car a hooker with scabbies puked in. No thanks I have a 38 mile trip and kids to pick up

That is very odd.  You sure were happy about those 2 weeks later:

which is drawing down the least?......... BOOM!






Then for some reason you said you would report back to us this April?

Actually I had a 3.8 in college thanks. Look up Ad Hominem. Thanks. Strong interest in philosophy here. Thousands of hours of audiobooks consumed in a long commute because I bought my house at the wrong time and refused to sell.

I will post my gains next year. For the record:
DIS @ 92.54
AAPL @ 125
ESCA @ 15.55
PAH @ 26.63
F @ 15.80

For the last time. I have an employee discount through my mom. No sales load for me.
I will let the numbers speak next April. You have the floor. I'm done here

I am just wondering how you got +12.99% on that since that is the gain you posted above?  Maybe you had different weighting as I just had 1 share each But Disney is only up 9.66% from your position so I am still struggling to get to +12.99%  Did you mean negative?

ender

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #102 on: April 18, 2016, 08:26:16 PM »
Wow, sometimes I'm glad other people want to win on the Internet more than me because it lets me munch on:
 

mrpercentage

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #103 on: April 18, 2016, 08:41:52 PM »
Wow, sometimes I'm glad other people want to win on the Internet more than me because it lets me munch on:
 

I was going to respond but you are absolutely right. The history between what he quotes and now is known and time stamped. In his mind passive investing into Vanguard is the only way. Who am I to prove him wrong? I forged snap shots of mint and my 457 account-- why not-- I have so much to gain by presenting programs that carry no fee at all like Robinhood, Computershare, and Shareowner. Seriously... fuck it.

Dueces


Terrestrial

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #104 on: April 18, 2016, 09:10:22 PM »
Wow, sometimes I'm glad other people want to win on the Internet more than me because it lets me munch on:
 

I was going to respond but you are absolutely right. The history between what he quotes and now is known and time stamped. In his mind passive investing into Vanguard is the only way. Who am I to prove him wrong? I forged snap shots of mint and my 457 account-- why not-- I have so much to gain by presenting programs that carry no fee at all like Robinhood, Computershare, and Shareowner. Seriously... fuck it.

Dueces

There's quite a large difference between thinking passive investing is the only way to go and simply pointing out that you're historically terrible at recommending stocks by using your own inconvenient quotes to prove his point.

« Last Edit: April 18, 2016, 09:14:34 PM by Terrestrial »

mrpercentage

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #105 on: April 18, 2016, 09:28:50 PM »
Its not the first time this has happened. I don't like getting into the whole history.
Yes I took a loss on PAH-- a few hundred. I was pissed about it and resolved to never buy a stock with no dividend again. There is a mistake. It was a bet (just like it sounds) on the CEO and a Hedge fund manager.

Conoco-- the dividend cut did hurt and I stopped buying but held it (another possible big mistake)

Disney-- yes its a forever hold.

My house-- screw you in the face-- all Im gonna say. I hope I get banded for it because I mean it and am not taking it back.

So since I will most likely be banned-- to my own benifit-- I will leave you with this market crushing crap. I know it wont matter because you will pick whatever timeline you like, and the market is going to go to hell soon anyway. Have a nice life



Cycling Stache

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #106 on: April 19, 2016, 03:04:53 AM »
So since I will most likely be banned-- to my own benifit-- I will leave you with this market crushing crap. I know it wont matter because you will pick whatever timeline you like, and the market is going to go to hell soon anyway. Have a nice life

Come on, Mr. P, this last quote is not like you.  Your posts are frequently entertaining, and I'm glad you're on the forum.

The pushback you get is because you often seem to be all over the place with your recommendations.  I suspect that just by being on this forum, you're probably doing reasonably well in terms of savings, making smarter spending decisions, and investing at all--because the market does tend to go up (notwithstanding the latest prediction) over the long term.

But the reason buy and hold often works, and the reason why indexing often works, is because there are so many people making bad decisions that are consistently predictable based on behavioral economics.  People buy high and sell low.  They believe they know more than all the money invested in the market.  They believe they can read a balance sheet better than everyone else.  They place bets on things that might go huge, like lottery tickets.  And they believe they're unique and immune from the behavioral mistakes that people consistently make.

A lot of your recommendations and predictions--and you do make a lot of them, which is why you're so well known and probably targeted--often seem to fall right into these traps.  Which is not surprising, because you're human, and these are the common human errors.

Buy and hold indexing works not because it's inherently amazing.  It works because it's a system that prevents people (if you stick to it!) from falling victim to the behavioral errors that happen because you're human.

So please don't try to get yourself banned.  Your posts capture a different view, especially on non-investing topics.  But just understand that you will keep getting the responses like this when you post market predictions or stock recommendations that could go badly for people, most of whom will benefit from buy and hold indexing.

Good stuff.

wienerdog

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #107 on: April 19, 2016, 05:43:22 AM »
So since I will most likely be banned-- to my own benifit-- I will leave you with this market crushing crap. I know it wont matter because you will pick whatever timeline you like, and the market is going to go to hell soon anyway. Have a nice life



Why would you be banned for making stock picks?  State your positions on the above picks and I'll place another Google calendar reminder for next year.

Terrestrial

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #108 on: April 19, 2016, 08:43:53 AM »
I will leave you with this market crushing crap. I know it wont matter because you will pick whatever timeline you like,

To be fair - you were actually the one who picked/stated the evaluation timeframe a year ago in your post...

shotgunwilly

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #109 on: April 19, 2016, 01:16:58 PM »
I knew it was a matter of time before Mr Percentage tucked his tail between his legs and ran off yelping.

Daley

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #110 on: April 19, 2016, 02:05:03 PM »
I knew it was a matter of time before Mr Percentage tucked his tail between his legs and ran off yelping.

Now, now... I think the taste of his own foot is sufficient at this point and there's no need to kick the lad while he's clearly down.

It may be easy to revel in schadenfreude, but there's a human being just like yourself at the other end. Self-righteousness, much like pride, can be an insidiously destructive thing to a man's soul, and is immensely damaging when it is stripped away. I just hope that he learns from his mistakes.

Please, go in peace.
« Last Edit: April 19, 2016, 02:14:20 PM by I.P. Daley »

Kaspian

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #111 on: April 19, 2016, 02:42:12 PM »
So since I will most likely be banned-- to my own benifit-- I will leave you with this market crushing crap. I know it wont matter because you will pick whatever timeline you like, and the market is going to go to hell soon anyway. Have a nice life

Said somebody in 1973.  I think we can all make the prediction that the market will crash "soon".  "Soon" is never now.  Reminds me of the old bar sign which reads, "All beer is free tomorrow." 


Retire-Canada

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #112 on: April 19, 2016, 04:32:04 PM »


I'm not going to lie to you people...all this "up" is scaring me. It can't be good. The stock-pocalypse must be coming!


protostache

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #113 on: April 19, 2016, 05:02:06 PM »


I'm not going to lie to you people...all this "up" is scaring me. It can't be good. The stock-pocalypse must be coming!



Market goes up, market goes down, market goes sideways. Pick your investments defensively and you won't suffer in most any situation. Good defense can mean broad, low-cost index funds. It can also mean a heavy bond allocation. It can mean picking individual stocks based on quality (consistent total return due to a large moat, competent management, lack of financial shenanigans and industries that doesn't typically get hit during a recession) purchased with a good margin of safety.

The latter option is harder than the other two in almost every way, but it's not impossible.

Scandium

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #114 on: April 21, 2016, 01:04:25 PM »
So since I will most likely be banned-- to my own benifit-- I will leave you with this market crushing crap. I know it wont matter because you will pick whatever timeline you like, and the market is going to go to hell soon anyway. Have a nice life

Come on, Mr. P, this last quote is not like you.  Your posts are frequently entertaining, and I'm glad you're on the forum.

The pushback you get is because you often seem to be all over the place with your recommendations. I suspect that just by being on this forum, you're probably doing reasonably well in terms of savings, making smarter spending decisions, and investing at all--because the market does tend to go up (notwithstanding the latest prediction) over the long term.

well.. sure you're not giving him too much credit? I just remember he sold F at a loss to buy a brand new sporty Focus. Because ..something? And that's with an underwater house.

Kaspian

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #115 on: April 21, 2016, 01:27:49 PM »
This seems like a textbook case study in both "recency bias" and "performance chasing".   Even the title of the thread shows recency bias when it was posted April 5. 

Terrestrial

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #116 on: April 21, 2016, 02:22:04 PM »
Good news - tomorrow's Earth Day. 

Retire-Canada

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #117 on: April 21, 2016, 02:37:21 PM »
Good news - tomorrow's Earth Day.

Enjoy it. It's probably the last one before the Dow crashes to destruction and civilization as we know it ends. ;)

steveo

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #118 on: April 21, 2016, 03:15:32 PM »
So since I will most likely be banned-- to my own benifit-- I will leave you with this market crushing crap. I know it wont matter because you will pick whatever timeline you like, and the market is going to go to hell soon anyway. Have a nice life

Come on, Mr. P, this last quote is not like you.  Your posts are frequently entertaining, and I'm glad you're on the forum.

The pushback you get is because you often seem to be all over the place with your recommendations.  I suspect that just by being on this forum, you're probably doing reasonably well in terms of savings, making smarter spending decisions, and investing at all--because the market does tend to go up (notwithstanding the latest prediction) over the long term.

But the reason buy and hold often works, and the reason why indexing often works, is because there are so many people making bad decisions that are consistently predictable based on behavioral economics.  People buy high and sell low.  They believe they know more than all the money invested in the market.  They believe they can read a balance sheet better than everyone else.  They place bets on things that might go huge, like lottery tickets.  And they believe they're unique and immune from the behavioral mistakes that people consistently make.

A lot of your recommendations and predictions--and you do make a lot of them, which is why you're so well known and probably targeted--often seem to fall right into these traps.  Which is not surprising, because you're human, and these are the common human errors.

Buy and hold indexing works not because it's inherently amazing.  It works because it's a system that prevents people (if you stick to it!) from falling victim to the behavioral errors that happen because you're human.

So please don't try to get yourself banned.  Your posts capture a different view, especially on non-investing topics.  But just understand that you will keep getting the responses like this when you post market predictions or stock recommendations that could go badly for people, most of whom will benefit from buy and hold indexing.

Good stuff.

Great post.

OneCoolCat

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #119 on: April 21, 2016, 03:32:27 PM »
tagging

Metric Mouse

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #120 on: April 22, 2016, 06:09:44 AM »
Good news - tomorrow's Earth Day.

Enjoy it. It's probably the last one before the Dow crashes to destruction and civilization as we know it ends. ;)

On the plus side, if that were to happen, it would be pretty great for the Earth!

Retire-Canada

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #121 on: April 22, 2016, 07:06:10 AM »
On the plus side, if that were to happen, it would be pretty great for the Earth!

I was thinking the same thing. :)

Terrestrial

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #122 on: April 22, 2016, 08:10:22 AM »
Personally I'm to busy lamenting my massive market losses to really celebrate Earth day at all.
« Last Edit: April 22, 2016, 11:21:58 AM by Terrestrial »

wienerdog

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #123 on: April 22, 2016, 08:53:15 AM »
Here it comes!  Straight down to 16000.  Mr. P was right.   I hope he has his bonds locked and loaded.

2Birds1Stone

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #124 on: April 28, 2016, 01:45:45 PM »
Here's your drop playa

Terrestrial

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #125 on: April 28, 2016, 02:28:41 PM »
Here's your drop playa

Aaaggghh - meltdown.  I only still have more money today from investments than when this thread was started.  Disaster!!

bobechs

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #126 on: April 28, 2016, 05:42:47 PM »
Here's your drop playa

Aaaggghh - meltdown.  I only still have more money today from investments than when this thread was started.  Disaster!!

Disaster ain't the word for it.  Shield your eyes now,...



VaCPA

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #127 on: April 28, 2016, 06:00:22 PM »
I transferred my old IRA to Vanguard and sold the crappy funds Tuesday. Takes 3 business days to clear they said. Tank baby!

Metric Mouse

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #128 on: April 28, 2016, 06:01:11 PM »
I transferred my old IRA to Vanguard and sold the crappy funds Tuesday. Takes 3 business days to clear they said. Tank baby!

Market timer!!! Good luck!

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #129 on: April 28, 2016, 06:02:37 PM »
We are descending into the abyss!  Brace yourselves.

wienerdog

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #130 on: April 28, 2016, 07:47:52 PM »
Too bad Mr. P didn't follow through on his #6 suggestion of Dreamworks.  DWA up from 25 last April to 40 today.

bobechs

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #131 on: April 28, 2016, 08:03:06 PM »
We are descending into the abyss!  Brace yourselves.

Only one more trading day for May to come early.

If it's going to happen at all, it's got to happen right now.

mrpercentage

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #132 on: April 28, 2016, 08:36:00 PM »
Go ahead and gloat. I was clearly wrong about it coming early. It went up for absolutely no reason or good news. Even Bogle was on CNBC talking about the crappy dividends and being over valued and lower future returns.

MrDelane

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #133 on: April 28, 2016, 09:44:47 PM »
Go ahead and gloat.
No reason for anyone to gloat.
30 days gives you until May 9th.

Go ahead a laugh away. You guys did the same thing after I said sell because of the Disney crash. What happened? Within a couple of weeks a 1000 point drop. I don't think it will be quite so bad but I do think its coming-- and within the next 30 days. Cant tell you the exact date but if Im wrong I will be holding 3 months of bonds.

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #134 on: April 28, 2016, 11:48:31 PM »
The market crashers sound almost exactly like religious apocalypse doomsayers - they make a prediction, it turns out wrong, but rather than reconsider their view, the double down and just move the date of the supposed disaster. 

Terrestrial

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #135 on: April 29, 2016, 06:37:38 AM »
The market crashers sound almost exactly like religious apocalypse doomsayers - they make a prediction, it turns out wrong, but rather than reconsider their view, the double down and just move the date of the supposed disaster.

Exactly.  The over arching point essentially is - yes at some point the market will correct/crash/etc, just as it has dozens and dozens of times before.  But - holding out of big run ups waiting for that crash is historically an exercise in futility and underperformance. People were squawking about the same thing in 2012 after the market doubled off it's lows over 3 years that a massive correction was inevitable after such a big run - and the market is only up another what, 50% since then? Its very much 'can't see the forest for the trees'.

On a broader point, am I saying the crash callers are 'wrong' right now and that we won't see a pullback? - No.  I have no idea, they could be totally right.  My point is only that (1) it doesn't matter in a long term investment strategy, and (2) people are likely to do themselves more harm than good worrying about it.

VaCPA

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #136 on: April 29, 2016, 06:51:13 AM »
The market crashers sound almost exactly like religious apocalypse doomsayers - they make a prediction, it turns out wrong, but rather than reconsider their view, the double down and just move the date of the supposed disaster.

It's true. They know markets go through normal downturns so it will happen at some point. And they're counting on nobody remembering all the times they were wrong but when they're right then can hang their hat on it. This is especially useful for all the ones selling books online.

I will say I don't mind the discussions of when the market will go down. Even though it's extremely difficult to predict with any accuracy I appreciate when people have well thought out reasoning behind it. Can make for interesting discussion

Metric Mouse

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #137 on: April 29, 2016, 07:12:03 AM »
The market crashers sound almost exactly like religious apocalypse doomsayers - they make a prediction, it turns out wrong, but rather than reconsider their view, the double down and just move the date of the supposed disaster.

This is actually a very interesting pyschological phenomenon. When people invest considerable mental attachment to an idea and it turns out wrong, rather than reconsider the idea they dive in even deeper. It's fascinating. One of the very difficult aspects of 'deprogramming' cult members and the like.

Retire-Canada

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #138 on: April 29, 2016, 07:40:55 AM »

I will say I don't mind the discussions of when the market will go down. Even though it's extremely difficult to predict with any accuracy I appreciate when people have well thought out reasoning behind it. Can make for interesting discussion

For the most part I am tired of the doomer crap. Typically I don't see people post actionable rationale information that is useful. It's lots of "I've got the secret sauce" or "My gut tells me..." nonsense.

If anyone could actually predict what the market was going to do with some accuracy they would be partying on their private island celebrating their latest billion not posting about it here.

If it's not actionable it's just a lot of negative noise that's not productive.
« Last Edit: April 29, 2016, 08:21:22 AM by Retire-Canada »

bobechs

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #139 on: April 29, 2016, 08:08:12 AM »

No reason for anyone to gloat.
30 days gives you until May 9th.



Well, to be precise -and I can see you are all into precision- the date you want to use is a few-days-later recasting of the original prediction which was based on the (flakey) principle that the Dow must go down in May, but that this year this inevitable market swing was going to be early.

Earlier than May is April.  April is almost over.  There is still time for a 1000-pt, 10% or other precipitate Ar-May-geddon drop in the Dow.  But not much time.

Then we get to see if the bedrock market timing idea of a scheduled big correction in May comes to pass.

2Birds1Stone

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #140 on: April 29, 2016, 08:14:27 AM »
Not a bad year so far......

VaCPA

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #141 on: April 29, 2016, 08:43:00 AM »

I will say I don't mind the discussions of when the market will go down. Even though it's extremely difficult to predict with any accuracy I appreciate when people have well thought out reasoning behind it. Can make for interesting discussion

For the most part I am tired of the doomer crap. Typically I don't see people post actionable rationale information that is useful. It's lots of "I've got the secret sauce" or "My gut tells me..." nonsense.

If anyone could actually predict what the market was going to do with some accuracy they would be partying on their private island celebrating their latest billion not posting about it here.

If it's not actionable it's just a lot of negative noise that's not productive.

True. But at the end of the day it's just a discussion about the financial markets, which I sometimes find interesting(regardless if the person is a bull/bear/somewhere in between) as long as there's sound analytical thought behind it.

Retire-Canada

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #142 on: April 29, 2016, 09:02:51 AM »
True. But at the end of the day it's just a discussion about the financial markets, which I sometimes find interesting(regardless if the person is a bull/bear/somewhere in between) as long as there's sound analytical thought behind it.

Would you say this thread is show casing sound analytical thought regarding a crash in US equities?

VaCPA

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #143 on: April 29, 2016, 09:07:32 AM »
True. But at the end of the day it's just a discussion about the financial markets, which I sometimes find interesting(regardless if the person is a bull/bear/somewhere in between) as long as there's sound analytical thought behind it.

Would you say this thread is show casing sound analytical thought regarding a crash in US equities?

This thread not so much. There is another thread currently going with about 10 pages that had some interesting analytical discussion though on why markets could be overvalued.

GuitarStv

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #144 on: April 29, 2016, 09:28:32 AM »
The market crashers sound almost exactly like religious apocalypse doomsayers - they make a prediction, it turns out wrong, but rather than reconsider their view, the double down and just move the date of the supposed disaster.

The religious apocalypse guys are actually in a much worse situation.  If you get it wrong, you look like an idiot.  If you get it right, there's nobody to brag to.  Very lose-lose.

dixonge

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #145 on: April 29, 2016, 10:13:57 AM »
This thread reminds me of a forum I used to frequent. One guy would spend about 6-12 months of solid, rapid-fire posts making fun of Christianity (over-the-top, but funny) and then re-convert and apologize for his previous posts and spend another 6-12 months in heated debates about how wonderful Jesus was. And then back. And then back again. He was bi-polar and on-and-off of his meds. And yes, he actually lived with his mother even though he was 40+. After awhile it got tiring to welcome him back into the fold (depending on which camp you were a member of) only to have him turn around and make fun of your position. Again. And again.

His condition turned him into a troll, in effect. And no matter how they become a troll, you should never feed them...

Tyson

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #146 on: April 29, 2016, 03:02:11 PM »
It's amazing how infrequently people actually change any of their beliefs.  Particularly if that belief is tied to a broader identity.

mrpercentage

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #147 on: April 29, 2016, 04:48:27 PM »
The thing I don't understand is why anyone who already has it all figured out would come into a forum  for any discussion at all. I think you all secretly love an crave wild predictions precisely to see if they come to pass. Sometimes I oblige by providing one.  I do openly admit that I fully reject market efficiency hypothesis. It is utter nonsense that says you can sell stock for what people will currently pay for it--- no duh.

wienerdog

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #148 on: April 30, 2016, 01:23:25 PM »
Sometimes I oblige by providing one.
   

As an update my new position is OHI. It was a large sum for me. Up to now my direct stock return for my other positions is 12.99% for a year and some positions have only been held 6 months.

so there you have it
Omega Healthcare REIT. Its name is fitting because it will be the last large purchase for me this year.
It's yield on cost is 6.54%

go ahead and short away.


Code: [Select]
Name               Symbol Last price Change      Shares    Cost basis Mkt value Gain   Gain % Day's gain Overall return
Omega Healthcare... OHI         33.77 -0.21 (-0.62%) 1.00     35.59        33.77  -1.82   -5.11% -0.22         -5.11%

Did anyone short it?  You would be up 5.11%.  Not bad for 1/2 month return.
« Last Edit: April 30, 2016, 01:31:27 PM by wienerdog »

forummm

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Re: Here it comes-- Red Dow
« Reply #149 on: April 30, 2016, 06:45:01 PM »
Didn't one guy make a bunch of money shorting the stocks that Cramer recommended?