Honestly
Innerscorecard - I still have no idea even after these months of watching.
Anyone can look up the company numbers:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/markets/stocks/summary/?q=bbd.b-t but I haven't figured out how to translate those numbers into a meaningful stock price. Its been months, and I still haven't made it through an investing book beyond about chapter 3, so its not likely that I will ever be a wily investor like most of you are. But its still fun being a spectator, and a $100 bet is still cheaper than going to a Jays game.
Going for the coles notes approach to life, Wikipedia gives 13 different methods and 4 approaches to finding a stock valuation. I think the most common approach is using the EPS or P/E ratio. From Wiki (I'm sure you know this already, but other casuals like me may not):
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stock_valuationEarnings per share (EPS)EPS is the net income available to common shareholders of the company divided by the number of shares outstanding. Usually there will be two types of EPS listed: a GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Principles) EPS and a Pro Forma EPS, which means that the income has been adjusted to exclude any one time items as well as some non-cash items like amortization of goodwill or stock option expenses. The most important thing to look for in the EPS figure is the overall quality of earnings. Make sure the company is not trying to manipulate their EPS numbers to make it look like they are more profitable. Also, look at the growth in EPS over the past several quarters / years to understand how volatile their EPS is, and to see if they are an underachiever or an overachiever. In other words, have they consistently beaten expectations or are they constantly restating and lowering their forecasts?
The EPS number that most analysts use is the pro forma EPS. To compute this number, use the net income that excludes any one-time gains or losses and excludes any non-cash expenses like stock options or amortization of goodwill. Then divide this number by the number of fully diluted shares outstanding. Historical EPS figures and forecasts for the next 1–2 years can be found by visiting free financial sites such as Yahoo Finance (enter the ticker and then click on "estimates").
Price to Earnings (P/E)Now that the analyst has several EPS figures (historical and forecasts), the analyst will be able to look at the most common valuation technique used, the price to earnings ratio, or P/E. To compute this figure, one divides the stock price by the annual EPS figure. For example, if the stock is trading at $10 and the EPS is $0.50, the P/E is 20 times. A complete analysis of the P/E multiple includes a look at the historical and forward ratios.
Historical P/Es are computed by taking the current price divided by the sum of the EPS for the last four quarters, or for the previous year. Historical trends of the P/E should also be considered by viewing a chart of its historical P/E over the last several years (one can find this on most finance sites like Yahoo Finance). Specifically consider what range the P/E has traded in so as to determine whether the current P/E is high or low versus its historical average.
Forward P/Es reflect the future growth of the company into the future. Forward P/Es are computed by taking the current stock price divided by the sum of the EPS estimates for the next four quarters, or for the EPS estimate for next calendar or fiscal year or two.
P/Es change constantly. If there is a large price change in a stock, or if the earnings (EPS) estimates change, the ratio is recomputed.
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I can calculate these numbers, but havcing done that, how do I decipher an EPS into a stock value?