Author Topic: Help me Time the Market . ?  (Read 1271 times)

BlueHouse

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Help me Time the Market . ?
« on: February 03, 2022, 11:42:10 AM »
Ha!  I know, I know! 

I'm in the process of rolling over a 401k into an IRA, so my entire 401k retirement account (about 1/2 of my entire portfolio) is currently in cash. 
I had it as 50/50 stock/bond funds, which made my portfolio roughly 80/20.  Ordinarily, I would ignore everything happening in the markets/economy/upcoming interest rate raise, etc.  But we do know the Fed is raising rates.  Should I decrease my bond exposure until it's done? 

Even though I feel as if this doesn't really count as market timing due to my circumstances, as I write the above paragraph, I cannot find a way to write it without it sounding like market timing.  Should I just throw it back in and close my eyes, or should I try to ride a wave?  I'm retired now, if that matters.  I won't be buying during the ride back up.

advice?

Rob_bob

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Re: Help me Time the Market . ?
« Reply #1 on: February 03, 2022, 12:05:53 PM »
Since you are now retired and will not be adding new $$ going forward now would be the time to decide on your AA going forward and decide if you want to lump sum or DCA into your new AA.

dblaace

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Re: Help me Time the Market . ?
« Reply #2 on: February 03, 2022, 12:31:46 PM »
Ha!  I know, I know! 

I'm in the process of rolling over a 401k into an IRA, so my entire 401k retirement account (about 1/2 of my entire portfolio) is currently in cash. 
I had it as 50/50 stock/bond funds, which made my portfolio roughly 80/20.  Ordinarily, I would ignore everything happening in the markets/economy/upcoming interest rate raise, etc.  But we do know the Fed is raising rates.  Should I decrease my bond exposure until it's done? 

Even though I feel as if this doesn't really count as market timing due to my circumstances, as I write the above paragraph, I cannot find a way to write it without it sounding like market timing.  Should I just throw it back in and close my eyes, or should I try to ride a wave?  I'm retired now, if that matters.  I won't be buying during the ride back up.

advice?
I'm in the same position. I rolled over my 401k last month Right now I'm about 30/70. Target of 60/40 eventually. The only thing I've done so far is bought  a short term bond index fund but still mostly cash.  Trying to resist the temptation to do anything until the dust settles a bit then DCA in.
« Last Edit: February 03, 2022, 12:43:41 PM by dblaace »

talltexan

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Re: Help me Time the Market . ?
« Reply #3 on: February 03, 2022, 12:53:24 PM »
you already know what you should do. The only difficulty is in carrying it out.

cool7hand

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Re: Help me Time the Market . ?
« Reply #4 on: February 03, 2022, 01:06:09 PM »
Put it back in the market asap and don't market time.

BlueHouse

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Re: Help me Time the Market . ?
« Reply #5 on: February 03, 2022, 01:15:57 PM »
you already know what you should do. The only difficulty is in carrying it out.

UGH.  Yes, you're right.

[drags feet and mopes over to vanguard site]

talltexan

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Re: Help me Time the Market . ?
« Reply #6 on: February 03, 2022, 01:22:28 PM »
Also, it's okay to go in at a less risky allocation than what you had before. You know you'll eventually be above 20% stocks, so it should be easy to jump in to at least that point immediately.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Help me Time the Market . ?
« Reply #7 on: February 04, 2022, 09:57:31 PM »
It might be easier to buy stocks every paycheck or every month.  That will let you start small - but the important thing is to keep going.  If you want to do it all this year, you could invest 1/10th every month.  That would be about 1/20th every paycheck... or if you want to spread it over 2022-2023, you could go with 5% (1/20th) every month.  Pick a chunk, and invest that amount regularly.

BlueHouse

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Re: Help me Time the Market . ?
« Reply #8 on: February 05, 2022, 06:38:35 PM »
Also, it's okay to go in at a less risky allocation than what you had before. You know you'll eventually be above 20% stocks, so it should be easy to jump in to at least that point immediately.

Good point.  I did buy a few 100k on Thursday (or at least I tried).  VG received my funds, but it hasn't made it into my settlement account yet.  It appears I could buy into index funds, but not into an ETF.  We'll see if they accept my trades for the index funds. 

 

Wow, a phone plan for fifteen bucks!