My model is simple. Most, probably more than 60% of the drop in the price of WTI and Brent oil is caused by the demand destruction of the Coronavirus lockdowns. So whenever the quarantines end, we should expect demand to return as people start driving and buying non-essential goods and getting back into life. The diplomatic standstill leading to supply increases will eventually end, either from negotiation, or because somebody's economy forces them to blink. Timing either of those things is a fools errand, but they will happen around the same time that the economy starts to pick back up. At that time, I expect the price of oil to return to basically where it was in January. If that happens at any point in the next 10 years, it would still represent 7% nominal growth between now and then.
There are four ETF's that derive their price from the movement of oil futures: The USO, DBO, and UCO derive from WTI oil, while the BNO derives from Brent oil. USO and UCO are both down significantly, 68 and 90 percent respectively. They both have a lot of the room for growth I was talking about, but I don't know if fund insolvency is even an issue I should worry about with these. DBO is down a lot less, closer to a 40 percent loss. According to the historical analysis though, DBO is a lot more responsive: price increases are reflected in the DBO first, and USO and UCO later. BNO derives it's value from a different "flavor" of oil than the other three. Brent is normally more expensive than WTI, and more of it comes from countries that aren't america. It's also had about a 40% drop, but from a higher cost point to a higher cost point, so it's currently the most expensive option.
I look forward to hearing people's arguments for what combination of these funds seems like the best way to make my gamble.