Author Topic: Has this been a bad year for the market?  (Read 6634 times)

Shwaa

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Has this been a bad year for the market?
« on: November 10, 2015, 09:44:39 AM »
I know Aug/Sept were pretty bad but I am wondering overall.....  My 401k is at +1.35% annual return.  Seems pretty low to me, but at least its not in the red anymore like it was a couple months ago.

My 401k is a mix portfolio of:

40% Large Cap US Index
20% International Stock Index
15% Small Cap Index
10% Mid Cap Index
15% Bond Index

Anyone else seeing similar returns for YTD?


« Last Edit: November 10, 2015, 09:46:57 AM by Shwaa »

GuitarStv

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Re: Has this been a bad year for the market?
« Reply #1 on: November 10, 2015, 09:55:39 AM »
No, 2008 was a bad year.

BarkyardBQ

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Re: Has this been a bad year for the market?
« Reply #2 on: November 10, 2015, 09:56:58 AM »
There have been 12 years where the S&P500 was flat 2%.

I wouldn't say this year has necessarily been 'bad', just 'meh' :)

nereo

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Re: Has this been a bad year for the market?
« Reply #3 on: November 10, 2015, 10:01:57 AM »
I know Aug/Sept were pretty bad but I am wondering overall.....  My 401k is at +1.35% annual return.  Seems pretty low to me, but at least its not in the red anymore like it was a couple months ago.

My 401k is a mix portfolio of:

40% Large Cap US Index
20% International Stock Index
15% Small Cap Index
10% Mid Cap Index
15% Bond Index

Anyone else seeing similar returns for YTD?

All of your questions could be answered by spending 5 minutes on sites like Yahoo Finance or Google Finance.
But yeah, your numbers are about in line with what the market has returned.

I should stress that you should *not* be concerned with returns from only ~10 months of data.  A more sensible time-frame is several years (3-yr, 5-yr, 10yr returns).

Some quick numbers:
SP500 (large US stocks): +0.86% YTD
Vanguard Mid-cap index +1.1% YTD
Russell Small Cap:-1.38% YTD
US 10-yr treasuries have been bouncing between +2.1-2.3%
International depends highly on which "international" sector you are talking about. 

Cheddar Stacker

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Re: Has this been a bad year for the market?
« Reply #4 on: November 10, 2015, 10:04:10 AM »
It's worse than the last few years have been, and worse than you should expect on a long-term basis. I'm at about +2.5% YTD with a different asset allocation than you. You're doing fine.

And yeah, 2008 was a bad year. This is normal.

TheAnonOne

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Re: Has this been a bad year for the market?
« Reply #5 on: November 10, 2015, 10:51:53 AM »
It's worse than the last few years have been, and worse than you should expect on a long-term basis. I'm at about +2.5% YTD with a different asset allocation than you. You're doing fine.

And yeah, 2008 was a bad year. This is normal.

'Normal'

It's simply normal because we had so many good years that were above average. There will be either a few 'under-performing' years to make up for it, or a crash at some point. Though, it could rally again, but then I think the crash would be larger.

Either way, it all ends up following the all-to-well-known growth rates of the market (depending on what your looking at).


Jack

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Re: Has this been a bad year for the market?
« Reply #6 on: November 10, 2015, 02:58:40 PM »
I'm of the opinion that it's a "letting the mean catch up" year (as opposed to a sudden reversion to it).

Wile E. Coyote

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Re: Has this been a bad year for the market?
« Reply #7 on: November 10, 2015, 03:37:00 PM »
I think it's been a great year, particularly August and September.   Stocks on sale!:)

Cheddar Stacker

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Re: Has this been a bad year for the market?
« Reply #8 on: November 10, 2015, 06:22:05 PM »
I think it's been a great year, particularly August and September.   Stocks on sale!:)

Great perspective! Optimism gun.

Left

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Re: Has this been a bad year for the market?
« Reply #9 on: November 10, 2015, 06:51:34 PM »
good for me, up about 5%, picked up shares in summer. most of the gains i have is just due to me putting new money in, and the puts etf kept pumping money in even while it was down over summer. g fund kept me from losing too much over summer as well

BlueMR2

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Re: Has this been a bad year for the market?
« Reply #10 on: November 11, 2015, 04:46:01 AM »
I think it's been a great year, particularly August and September.   Stocks on sale!:)

Great perspective! Optimism gun.

I'm trying to see it that way.  It's a bit disturbing when you "lose" more money in the market in a year than you earned at the full time job!

Also disturbing to see news reports on how the market is climbing and doing well, then checking in on my investments and that's not reflected in any of them...  They're all down a few percent for the year.  Ah well, it's a long term game.

ridonkulous52

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Re: Has this been a bad year for the market?
« Reply #11 on: November 16, 2015, 04:09:46 PM »
In the accumulation phase, I believe you want stocks to languish because that means more shares for cheap.  Years like 2008 don't come often and when they do, back up the truck!

EarlyStart

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Re: Has this been a bad year for the market?
« Reply #12 on: November 16, 2015, 05:57:34 PM »
Earnings growth is about 0%, and the stock market is flat. Makes sense to me. I definitely wouldn't call it bad.

johnny847

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Re: Has this been a bad year for the market?
« Reply #13 on: November 16, 2015, 06:15:28 PM »
I think it's been a great year, particularly August and September.   Stocks on sale!:)

Great perspective! Optimism gun.

I'm trying to see it that way.  It's a bit disturbing when you "lose" more money in the market in a year than you earned at the full time job!

Also disturbing to see news reports on how the market is climbing and doing well, then checking in on my investments and that's not reflected in any of them...  They're all down a few percent for the year.  Ah well, it's a long term game.

On the flip side, take a year like 2013 where I'm sure quite a few people on this forum "made" more money in the market than at their full time jobs!

Frugalman19

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Re: Has this been a bad year for the market?
« Reply #14 on: November 16, 2015, 07:21:43 PM »
I think it's been a great year, particularly August and September.   Stocks on sale!:)

Great perspective! Optimism gun.

I'm trying to see it that way.  It's a bit disturbing when you "lose" more money in the market in a year than you earned at the full time job!


Also disturbing to see news reports on how the market is climbing and doing well, then checking in on my investments and that's not reflected in any of them...  They're all down a few percent for the year.  Ah well, it's a long term game.

You only "lose" if you sell!

Goldielocks

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Re: Has this been a bad year for the market?
« Reply #15 on: November 18, 2015, 04:20:42 PM »
I thought it was a great year.

Last year the market overshot, IMO, so it finally calmed down this year, for a terrific 2 year return. 
 It also helps me that the CDN dollar moved in the right direction for me vs. the US stocks that I am now selling due to tax timing...

Retire-Canada

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Re: Has this been a bad year for the market?
« Reply #16 on: November 19, 2015, 06:19:15 AM »
I was just checking some of my main stock ETFs yesterday when a buddy asked how they were doing vs. his investments.

- VUN = +16% YTD AA = 50%
- VCN = -6.5% YTD AA = 30%
- VDU = +16% YTD AA = 10%
- VEE = +1% YTD AA = 10%

Averaged out according to my AA that's 7.8% overall.


ArtX

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Re: Has this been a bad year for the market?
« Reply #17 on: November 20, 2015, 04:59:51 PM »
Take a look at the global economy and you can clearly see why the return is low. USA seems to be in fairly good health, but when the rest of the world (China, Europe) is sick, the strong dollar doesn't do a good thing for American economy and this also affects Canada. There are some talks about the next wave of financial crisis approaching, but there are no facts to proove it.

Driko

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Re: Has this been a bad year for the market?
« Reply #18 on: November 20, 2015, 11:54:04 PM »
I luckily ended up changing my allocation to 80% to my 403 for the month of september and now I am up 15.5% ytd. Previously I was in the red though.

BlueMR2

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Re: Has this been a bad year for the market?
« Reply #19 on: November 22, 2015, 03:59:00 AM »
I just ran the math on my last set of number.  Down 8.9% YTD.  Ick.  Other than my VTSAX it appears that when the market drops, all my investments drop.  When the market surges, my (other) investments stay flat.  Not a good combo.  Might have to give up on the others and go 100% VTSAX.

Retire-Canada

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Re: Has this been a bad year for the market?
« Reply #20 on: November 22, 2015, 06:22:51 AM »
I just ran the math on my last set of number.  Down 8.9% YTD.  Ick.  Other than my VTSAX it appears that when the market drops, all my investments drop.  When the market surges, my (other) investments stay flat.  Not a good combo.  Might have to give up on the others and go 100% VTSAX.

What are your other investments?