The Money Mustache Community
Learning, Sharing, and Teaching => Investor Alley => Topic started by: IndyPendent on June 24, 2015, 06:40:09 PM
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I was reading various garbage financial articles, and one caught my eye that quoted Carl Ichan and his belief that AAPL was going to hit $160 in the next few years.
For whatever reason I had one of those moments where I imagined betting all my rollover IRA on the stock, cashing in in a couple years, and patting myself on the back for being so clever.
I felt a squirt of adrenaline hit my bloodstream and for one idiotic moment seriously considered doing it. Fortunately, I realized that I don't know squat more than anyone else and sobered up.
Can anyone else relate?
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Sure. I fantasize about knowing the future and then doing crazy leverage to get ridiculously rich.
And then my paycheck comes in and is auto-invested in index funds.
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Can anyone else relate?
No... garbage financial articles are not worth the (non-existent) paper they're written on...
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Learn to read the news with skepticism and it won't be as bad. If you can't, then stop reading the news until you can.
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The speculative urge is strong. Read any book from decades ago or today and you will see exactly the same feeling.
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My (younger) self can relate. A former day-trader want-to-be who's most classic move was with MCI/ Worldcom stock, after it being hyped by all the talking heads at the time...
Today, much older and wiser, (we) have a boring 60/40 AA which is pretty much set on auto-pilot. A lot less stress that way...
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The speculative urge is strong. Read any book from decades ago or today and you will see exactly the same feeling.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dow_36,000
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My friend has been talking about buying a stock for about a year now. He "took the plunge" and bought 4 shares today worth roughly $50/share. He also told me it cost him $10 in transaction fees.
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The first stock I ever bought was a company called General Magic. They did the voice recognition software for on star if I remember correctly. It did awesome in a short run. At least doubled my money. Figured this shit was easy.
Lost almost all my gains on the next purchase :/
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The first rule of investing is not to lose money. - Harry Browne
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check out the intelligent investor by ben graham. I think i remember a whole chapter devoted to speculation vs investing
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Every time I look at a stock chart I feel like surely there is way to know when you're on a peak or at the bottom of a valley. But then I remind myself of my one friend who declared that a certain stock would triple last summer when it hit $8. Right now it trades for about $1.80.
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My (younger) self can relate. A former day-trader want-to-be who's most classic move was with MCI/ Worldcom stock, after it being hyped by all the talking heads at the time...
Former employee here. Our 401(k) employer match was strictly kept as company stock. I'm still a bit bitter about that. Even back then I believed in diversification.
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Sure. I fantasize about knowing the future and then doing crazy leverage to get ridiculously rich.
And then my paycheck comes in and is auto-invested in index funds.
This is me too. Sometimes I look at stocks that have skyrocketed and think "Man, I should have seen that coming and bought some of that stock a year ago" or similar.
My variation on this theme is watching a still-private company I used to work for, who has a killer product in development, try to bring that product to market. I fantasize about getting rich on the currently-worthless stock I was paid with, when they (of course) hit it big.
Alas, even with their hopeful timeline, I should attain FI using the auto-investing route shortly before the time their profits just start to kick in and make the possibility of actual success (and profits on my stock) look more real.
If I were more foolish, I would quit my job now and spend down part of my 'stache while banking on them to make me FI. Fortunately, I'm too cautious for that. So here I sit on a Friday afternoon at work.
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Ahh, the gambler's rush! For whatever reason I'm not wired that way, I'd be in CDs if there was a reasonable argument for it. I am even tempted by annuities from time to time, despite knowing they are terribly expensive and come with subtantial inflation risk. Just something about the idea of having to do it (or at least a large portion of it) all over again almost makes me sick to my stomach.
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Every time I look at a stock chart I feel like surely there is way to know when you're on a peak or at the bottom of a valley. But then I remind myself of my one friend who declared that a certain stock would triple last summer when it hit $8. Right now it trades for about $1.80.
That wouldn't happen to be PWE by any chance, would it? :)
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Every time I look at a stock chart I feel like surely there is way to know when you're on a peak or at the bottom of a valley. But then I remind myself of my one friend who declared that a certain stock would triple last summer when it hit $8. Right now it trades for about $1.80.
That wouldn't happen to be PWE by any chance, would it? :)
No, but same industry.
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Bought PWE @28 now@ 1.73.
gotta grin, because it is not my worst buy :-)
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I've had those thoughts. Here's a good (or horrendous) way to think about it.
If this investment idea is so great, is it worth buying out-of-the money options on it? That is, if it doesn't play out, am I willing to lose everything? That helps clear the mind.
Not recommended for those who really like risk :-)
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Just found this thread and thought I'd bump for grins--I never took this plunge. Good thing!
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My (younger) self can relate. A former day-trader want-to-be who's most classic move was with MCI/ Worldcom stock, after it being hyped by all the talking heads at the time...
Ah! You see, I was smarter than that. I invested in Level 3 Communications.
The phrase "Level 3" is considered a cuss word in my house and is on the banned list. My kids sometimes use it just to rile me up.
Level 3 was down about 95% at one point. And I held on :-(
Lesson learned. The hard way.
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Just found this thread and thought I'd bump for grins--I never took this plunge. Good thing!
Good for you.
I still do a bit of speculation, just for fun, but it's in a separate account - my funny money account. My record is spotty. I've made money but would have made a lot more had I just held onto the stocks instead of trading in and out. I sold Apple after a nice run up, about 100% ago. It's instructive.
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My (younger) self can relate. A former day-trader want-to-be who's most classic move was with MCI/ Worldcom stock, after it being hyped by all the talking heads at the time...
Ah! You see, I was smarter than that. I invested in Level 3 Communications.
The phrase "Level 3" is considered a cuss word in my house and is on the banned list. My kids sometimes use it just to rile me up.
Level 3 was down about 95% at one point. And I held on :-(
Lesson learned. The hard way.
Level 3 was one of my best all-time shorts. I remember having read somewhere that it had gorged on debt, did some due diligence, and made some 80% on the short side. Wish you had called me when you bought. ;-)
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My friend has been talking about buying a stock for about a year now. He "took the plunge" and bought 4 shares today worth roughly $50/share. He also told me it cost him $10 in transaction fees.
At least his broker will get a nice return.
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I had the same thought and actually did it! Avg cost of my shares is $111, currently $103 after spending most of this year in the 90's. Can't wait to undo that move some time this fall...
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It is very tempting to go in on a gamble. The market can take your money away so easily. Very dangerous.
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Stop being such P@$$!&S! I'm calling Tesla to double in the next 30 years.
But seriously, I think Tesla's industry will grow faster than the overall US economy in the next decade. I truly believe electric vehicles will replace the internal combustion engine and batteries for electric storage will be standard in homes to store solar, wind, bio, ect generated power and to smooth out demand on the power grid. As it is now, utilities have to build to supply enough demand for peak usage which is only utilized a small percentage of the time. If home were able to store power when demand is low and then use local power at peak times, then utilities will only have to build to supply average demand.
I was going to buy Tesla when it was below $150 but I missed the boat on that, which goes to show I am horrible timing the market. So for now i'm just going to have to be satisfied that I picked up .00001 shares when I bought VTI in my 401k account.
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Stop being such P@$$!&S! I'm calling Tesla to double in the next 30 years.
But seriously, I think Tesla's industry will grow faster than the overall US economy in the next decade. I truly believe electric vehicles will replace the internal combustion engine and batteries for electric storage will be standard in homes to store solar, wind, bio, ect generated power and to smooth out demand on the power grid. As it is now, utilities have to build to supply enough demand for peak usage which is only utilized a small percentage of the time. If home were able to store power when demand is low and then use local power at peak times, then utilities will only have to build to supply average demand.
I was going to buy Tesla when it was below $150 but I missed the boat on that, which goes to show I am horrible timing the market. So for now i'm just going to have to be satisfied that I picked up .00001 shares when I bought VTI in my 401k account.
Be careful. I love Telsa, and deeply respect Elon Musk. However, I will not invest in it right now. It doesn't pay a dividend. Its multiple is high. This low gas will cause pressure (I bullish on oil though I just can't predict everything).
I just helped my son do a report on them-- the synergy of Solary City, Tesla batteries, and Space X is an amazing opportunity. He really can change the world and I hope he does. I hope he takes us to Mars. He seems to be the only hope with the government throwing away NASA funding-- the one bright spot of innovation for the progress of man they had. More bombs were needed I guess.
A guy at my work drives a Tesla and loves it. Its worth twice his salary but he loves it. Rumor is someone left him money. I have too much taste to ask. I do wonder what he is doing at my work though. Obviously he had the money to do something else. He must like it.
I think the more near term bet would be on Honeywell's turbo making it into cars so they can have smaller more efficient engines. Just watched an interview on Mad Money the other day. Jim is such a bear on oil-- he literally recommends no one.
Here are NASA's plans for Mars. They need the money. Show them the money Jerry
http://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/atoms/files/journey-to-mars-next-steps-20151008_508.pdf
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Yeah, I'm not betting my retirement on it. I know better that even though it might seem obvious that a particular industry will outperform the overall economy, actually picking a company or a few companies to invest in to capitalize on the trend requires more time and resources that I have. Execution is key, and even that is not enough to succeed.
Take for example Buffet's investment in battery manufacture A123, everyone thought that there was only one place to go for the company, until it went bankrupt. Moral of the story, even Buffet can't predict what company will be successful or not. The only difference is he has so much capital to deploy that he only needs a small percentage of them to succeed to be profitable, and he gets investment terms much more favorable than what traditional investor does.
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My (younger) self can relate. A former day-trader want-to-be who's most classic move was with MCI/ Worldcom stock, after it being hyped by all the talking heads at the time...
Ah! You see, I was smarter than that. I invested in Level 3 Communications.
The phrase "Level 3" is considered a cuss word in my house and is on the banned list. My kids sometimes use it just to rile me up.
Level 3 was down about 95% at one point. And I held on :-(
Lesson learned. The hard way.
LVLT is a very interesting stock - of course it depends when you bought it.
my average stock cost is 17 - so at 50 its looking pretty good.
pre 2011 purchases may not look so good - but until a few years ago LVLT didn't make a profit. Companies that constantly post losses are always speculative at best..