Author Topic: Growth companies in next 5 years?  (Read 4029 times)

oldtimer

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Growth companies in next 5 years?
« on: October 29, 2021, 03:41:43 PM »
Hi there,
First post here, but not a stranger to investing.
I am looking to retire in around 5 years and am seeking suggestions for companies that might outpace a bog standard index investing approach over that period.
Around 50% of my equiity portfolio is currently in US index ETFs  - S&P, TSM mostly.
I have around 20% fixed income - bonds etc.
The rest is currently a hodgepodge of EM and international ETFs, which quite frankly, have been nothing but a drag on my returns for many years now.
I want to sell these and invest in 8-10 companies for maximum growth.
So far I have a list of a few interesting looking candidates:
Fortinet
Roku
Coinbase
Square
Lam Research Corp
Netflix
AMD
Microsoft

I realize that these are mostly in the "high tech" space, but I'm finding it hard to find any growth candidates that aren't.

Anyway, feel free to tell me I'm stupid and should just stick to indexes (which is hard, when future real returns are predicted to be mid single digits, hence my desire to "juice" my returns if possible).

But if anyone wants to weigh in with their suggestions, preferably something you are invested in yourself and have a high conviction in, I would be grateful!

Thanks!





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boarder42

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Re: Growth companies in next 5 years?
« Reply #2 on: October 29, 2021, 05:53:50 PM »
Wanna juice up your returns. Pick something that has beat the sp500 handidly for almost 100 years.

Small cap value. https://paulmerriman.com/90-years-of-evidence-shows-investor-patience-leads-to-better-returns/

Growth stocks suck the term literally means over valued but speculated for growth.

The worst 40 year period for small value was 13.x% annualized. Conversely the best 40 period for large growth was 12.x% annualized

oldtimer

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Re: Growth companies in next 5 years?
« Reply #3 on: October 29, 2021, 10:11:27 PM »
Thanks for the replies, but I'm not interested in trading, and have no reason to believe that I can beat "the market", but surely there are companies that are "likely" to perform better over a 5 year period based on projected future growth etc? Just looking for ideas as to what kind of industry such companies might be in - AI/robotics, space exploration, fusion power, IoT etc. and what those companies might be.
Sure, "nobody knows nothing", and I might be better off just indexing SCV as suggested, who knows. Maybe boring is best.

Niceday

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Re: Growth companies in next 5 years?
« Reply #4 on: October 29, 2021, 11:21:40 PM »
My suggestion is to pick companies that you understand more than the average investor does. To beat the average, what is your competitive edge? Do you work in high tech so you have the ability to understand these companies better? Having said that, here are my comments for your list:

Fortinet - how is this company better than other security companies
Roku - what is their moat? Can consumers get the same service from FireTV, AppleTV, etc?
Coinbase - if you like cryptocurrencies, I'd just buy bitcoins instead
Square - probably ok. They have a chance to come up with great fintech solutions.
Lam Research Corp - doing great but traditionally the semiconductor industry is cyclical. Semiconductors are in high demand, how come it's been lagging the market in the past 6 months. If you buy it, need to watch it.
Netflix - potential new growth drivers from gaming and merchandises.
AMD - it's doing great and the CEO is awesome. Again, like other semiconductor companies, it has a tendency to be cyclical but may be high performance computing is turning it to be a secular growth story.
Microsoft - very trusted with Satya Nadella and Amy Hood driving the growth.

« Last Edit: October 29, 2021, 11:23:15 PM by Niceday »

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Growth companies in next 5 years?
« Reply #5 on: October 30, 2021, 03:39:15 AM »
Hi there,
First post here, but not a stranger to investing.
I am looking to retire in around 5 years and am seeking suggestions for companies that might outpace a bog standard index investing approach over that period.
Around 50% of my equiity portfolio is currently in US index ETFs  - S&P, TSM mostly.
I have around 20% fixed income - bonds etc.
That fixed income is key as you approach retirement.  The biggest problem isn't growing your portfolio quickly right before retiring... it's "sequence of returns" risk.  Consider if you think you can afford 4% withdrawal each year, and the market crashes, cutting the value of equities in half.  Now to pay rent and other expenses, you need to withdraw 8%.  That kind of problem can ruin a retirement.  So I would advise spending more time deciding the right fixed income allocation between now and retirement.


Fortinet , Roku , Coinbase , Square , Lam Research , Netflix , AMD , Microsoft
Don't most of these companies have recent, big successes?  Naturally Netflix and Roku did well when Covid-19 forced everyone to stay at home.  If you just look at performance, you might accidentally expect a one time event to repeat.

Analysts worry that Coinbase will have to lower their fees to compete with other crypto exchanges.  If that happens, profits drop with the stock price.

If you don't have an edge picking stocks, I would avoid "single company" risk.  You haven't really offered up any explanation for your list, so I have to assume the chances of you beating the market aren't that good.


MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Growth companies in next 5 years?
« Reply #6 on: October 30, 2021, 03:51:47 AM »
Small cap value. https://paulmerriman.com/90-years-of-evidence-shows-investor-patience-leads-to-better-returns/

Growth stocks suck the term literally means over valued but speculated for growth.
If "growth" stocks are so horrible, why have they beaten value stocks for the past 10 years?  Using your own definition of "growth" doesn't make it true, especially when no data is involved.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VUG/performance?p=VUG
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VTV/performance?p=VTV


Today we can buy small cap stocks at any broker for $0/trade.  But those small cap stocks used to be much more difficult to trade, and had much higher bid-ask spreads.  Comparing small cap stocks from the 1940s with today isn't an equal comparison.

When I look at actual performance of small cap value ETFs, it seems like they aren't beating the overall market.  Yahoo Finance goes back 10 years, so I guess that repeats the last decade of Merriman's chart.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ITOT/performance?p=ITOT
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IJS/performance?p=IJS
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/JKL/performance?p=JKL

boarder42

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Re: Growth companies in next 5 years?
« Reply #7 on: October 30, 2021, 04:32:16 AM »
Small cap value. https://paulmerriman.com/90-years-of-evidence-shows-investor-patience-leads-to-better-returns/

Growth stocks suck the term literally means over valued but speculated for growth.
If "growth" stocks are so horrible, why have they beaten value stocks for the past 10 years?  Using your own definition of "growth" doesn't make it true, especially when no data is involved.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VUG/performance?p=VUG
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VTV/performance?p=VTV


Today we can buy small cap stocks at any broker for $0/trade.  But those small cap stocks used to be much more difficult to trade, and had much higher bid-ask spreads.  Comparing small cap stocks from the 1940s with today isn't an equal comparison.

When I look at actual performance of small cap value ETFs, it seems like they aren't beating the overall market.  Yahoo Finance goes back 10 years, so I guess that repeats the last decade of Merriman's chart.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ITOT/performance?p=ITOT
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IJS/performance?p=IJS
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/JKL/performance?p=JKL

The last 10 years isn't a valuable enough sample size. You site all these short time frames and make statements based on them. The fact that they've underperformed for 10 years makes them more appealing to buy not less appealing.

Small caps historically under or meet performance for long periods before outperformance over 8-10 year windows. We don't have to go back to the 40s to find this. Large growth returned -0.1% annualized for a decade from 2000 thru 2010. Scv over that same window was over 13% annualized.
« Last Edit: October 30, 2021, 06:05:57 AM by boarder42 »

Paper Chaser

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Re: Growth companies in next 5 years?
« Reply #8 on: October 30, 2021, 05:44:11 AM »
Thanks for the replies, but I'm not interested in trading, and have no reason to believe that I can beat "the market", but surely there are companies that are "likely" to perform better over a 5 year period based on projected future growth etc? Just looking for ideas as to what kind of industry such companies might be in - AI/robotics, space exploration, fusion power, IoT etc. and what those companies might be.
Sure, "nobody knows nothing", and I might be better off just indexing SCV as suggested, who knows. Maybe boring is best.

Tweaking asset allocation may not be a bad idea, but I don't think it's wise to gamble/speculate with 30% of your portfolio just before the finish line.

That being said, if you want industries that might perform well in the coming years, I'd look at businesses related to housing/construction. There's a massive shortage in the US and tons of demand. People are building new, upgrading to sell in a hot market, or renovating their existing place to avoid moving in a hot market. A place like Home Depot/Lowe's should benefit from all of that.

mistymoney

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Re: Growth companies in next 5 years?
« Reply #9 on: October 30, 2021, 11:01:59 AM »
hearing a lot about nvda

oldtimer

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Re: Growth companies in next 5 years?
« Reply #10 on: October 31, 2021, 11:14:06 AM »
Thank you everyone for your thoughtful replies, I have a lot to think about. I've always been heavy on the equity allocation, and it's done well for me so far. I just find it hard to buy bonds when you're basically losing money on them, but I think that I need to see them more as a way to reduce volatility than growth.
« Last Edit: October 31, 2021, 11:15:50 AM by oldtimer »

Villanelle

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Re: Growth companies in next 5 years?
« Reply #11 on: October 31, 2021, 11:39:02 AM »
Thanks for the replies, but I'm not interested in trading, and have no reason to believe that I can beat "the market", but surely there are companies that are "likely" to perform better over a 5 year period based on projected future growth etc? Just looking for ideas as to what kind of industry such companies might be in - AI/robotics, space exploration, fusion power, IoT etc. and what those companies might be.
Sure, "nobody knows nothing", and I might be better off just indexing SCV as suggested, who knows. Maybe boring is best.

These things are pretty contradictory.  They also run counter to the foundational values of this site, to the extent that the 'source material' for the site is blog posts. 

If you want to branch out, go from 'boring' to 'slightly less boring" and add in index fund from different sectors.  (Like the SCV suggested here.) Or try to beat the market, even though you admit you have no reason to believe you can.

oldtimer

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Re: Growth companies in next 5 years?
« Reply #12 on: November 04, 2021, 08:53:34 PM »
Just to follow up, I have decided to allocate 10% to "speculative" growth companies and 20% to SCV.
I don't think there's much danger in gambling with 10%, and hey, it's a little bit of fun.
Will see how it pans out in 2026  :)

hodedofome

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Re: Growth companies in next 5 years?
« Reply #13 on: November 11, 2021, 03:33:45 PM »
UPST, MQ, AMPL, HIMS, PYPL, FB, ROKU, PTON, BIGC, OPEN, BLND, TWLO, RNG, TDOC, AMZN.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Growth companies in next 5 years?
« Reply #14 on: November 13, 2021, 02:19:21 AM »
UPST, MQ, AMPL, HIMS, PYPL, FB, ROKU, PTON, BIGC, OPEN, BLND, TWLO, RNG, TDOC, AMZN.
One +1 vote for starting/continuing a thread on these picks.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Growth companies in next 5 years?
« Reply #15 on: November 13, 2021, 02:39:52 AM »
Just to follow up, I have decided to allocate 10% to "speculative" growth companies and 20% to SCV.
While I dislike SCV, if you do go with it, do not just do on someone's post.  Read books by Larry Swedroe, where he uses decades of stock market history to prove his thesis.  Know the historical returns, so you can stomach long periods of underperformance.

What I find interesting is how small/value is considered one category, but you can lose out on 1%/year performance by picking different small/value ETFs or funds.  SLYV (iShares) was created in Nov 2000 (dot-com crash), and has returned 10.73% since then.  But if you invest in VIXVX (ETF class is VBR, created 2004), you had a 9.76% return over the past 21 years.  If small/value are all the same, why are there 1% gaps in annual performance over decades?

wageslave23

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Re: Growth companies in next 5 years?
« Reply #16 on: November 13, 2021, 05:08:47 AM »
Just to follow up, I have decided to allocate 10% to "speculative" growth companies and 20% to SCV.
While I dislike SCV, if you do go with it, do not just do on someone's post.  Read books by Larry Swedroe, where he uses decades of stock market history to prove his thesis.  Know the historical returns, so you can stomach long periods of underperformance.

What I find interesting is how small/value is considered one category, but you can lose out on 1%/year performance by picking different small/value ETFs or funds.  SLYV (iShares) was created in Nov 2000 (dot-com crash), and has returned 10.73% since then.  But if you invest in VIXVX (ETF class is VBR, created 2004), you had a 9.76% return over the past 21 years.  If small/value are all the same, why are there 1% gaps in annual performance over decades?

They don't all do a good job of actually being small cap value.  VBR is half mid cap.  Also I would suggest reading some critical articles about why the small value discount no longer applies or is diminished so that you have both sides of the issue before committing to it.


Telecaster

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Re: Growth companies in next 5 years?
« Reply #18 on: November 13, 2021, 03:13:23 PM »
UPST, ASAN, NET, MNDY, DDOG, CRWD, DLTR

LetsRetireYoung

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Re: Growth companies in next 5 years?
« Reply #19 on: November 13, 2021, 11:50:15 PM »
UPST, MQ, AMPL, HIMS, PYPL, FB, ROKU, PTON, BIGC, OPEN, BLND, TWLO, RNG, TDOC, AMZN.
One +1 vote for starting/continuing a thread on these picks.

I recommend extreme caution... When people who are incapable of doing basic DD jump on a bandwagon because someone on an online message board told them to, that's a very bad look. Also potential liability, or at the very least damage to this forum's reputation.

Take PTON, for instance. Peloton's stock fell by 47.5% in just one week after their disastrous earnings. Turns out there isn't such a huge market for $2,000 exercise bikes (that occasionally kill you) after all. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

I don't see that crappy (to put it mildly) company surviving or growing over the next 5 years.

That is but one example... I'm fully aware that I sound like an elitist, but laymen (and laywomen, and those who don't subscribe to either of those labels) should not be playing with the stock market. Over 95% of what passes for investors these days will be better off putting their money into an index fund. They won't become billionaires, but they also won't lose it all.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Growth companies in next 5 years?
« Reply #20 on: November 14, 2021, 07:03:47 AM »
UPST, MQ, AMPL, HIMS, PYPL, FB, ROKU, PTON, BIGC, OPEN, BLND, TWLO, RNG, TDOC, AMZN.
One +1 vote for starting/continuing a thread on these picks.
I recommend extreme caution... When people who are incapable of doing basic DD jump on a bandwagon because someone on an online message board told them to, that's a very bad look. Also potential liability, or at the very least damage to this forum's reputation.
To take apart a some problems with that:
(1) In a thread titled "Growth companies in next 5 years?", you are surprised to find people suggesting growth stocks?
(2) you replied to me with "people who are incapable of doing basic DD".  How do you know how much "DD" I have done?
(3) "DD" is your main point, why wasn't it important enough to type?
(4) you replied to me and claimed "told them to"... who told me to do something?  If the website is speaking to you... I hope it's because you have a text to speech device.
(5) "an online message board" is not posting, one other poster is.  Why aren't Facebook and YouTube responsible for everything users publish?
(6) "jump on a bandwagon" because I want a separate thread for discussion?  A bandwagon of people wanting to discuss growth stocks - and again, isn't that the thread topic?
(7) Did you claim to know "potential liability" without being a lawyer?
(8) "the very least damage to this forum's reputation" according to who?  You?

Sometimes people use insults on others that are more appropriate for themselves.  Like someone writing a problematic short paragraph, while also claiming others "are incapable of doing basic DD".

LetsRetireYoung

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Re: Growth companies in next 5 years?
« Reply #21 on: November 14, 2021, 11:08:58 AM »
@MustacheAndaHalf

:)

I have zero inclination to write some sort of long point-by-point rebuttal to your post, etc. Sorry if my post came off as a personal attack - I meant people in general, not you in particular.

I was referring to the general forum population. I get the overall vibe that quite a few people here are looking for a hot stock tip. That is not a healthy mentality. In my experience, such people are not inclined to do their own DDs at all. They just go all in and then get sad when their hot stock tip crashes and burns. The fact that one of the tips in this thread (PTON - Peloton) is a joke of a company that's tucked alongside other, less ridiculous tickers... Well, that does not inspire confidence. :P

Anyone else reading this in the future - please make sure to do your own research first and foremost before you jump on someone else's advice. If you don't have the energy or the inclination to go over a company's SEC filings, to look up their board of directors, to go over their balance sheet, etc - just stick with index funds.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Growth companies in next 5 years?
« Reply #22 on: November 14, 2021, 11:42:00 PM »
Sorry if my post came off as a personal attack - I meant people in general, not you in particular.
Yet I was the only person replying - there were no other people.


UPST, MQ, AMPL, HIMS, PYPL, FB, ROKU, PTON, BIGC, OPEN, BLND, TWLO, RNG, TDOC, AMZN.
One +1 vote for starting/continuing a thread on these picks.
I recommend extreme caution... When people who are incapable of doing basic DD jump on a bandwagon because someone on an online message board told them to, that's a very bad look. Also potential liability, or at the very least damage to this forum's reputation.


You seem to be targeting a group of one.  Look for replies after hodedofome's post - you'll only find mine.  You typed "people who ... jump on a bandwagon", but there's actually nobody doing that - even me.  I was just asking for a discussion.

You're also creating situations that don't exist, and arguing against them.  This is a strawman argument:
"jump on a bandwagon because someone on an online message board told them to"

Who "told them to"?  Which people "jump on the bandwagon" here?

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Growth companies in next 5 years?
« Reply #23 on: November 15, 2021, 12:02:38 AM »
Take PTON, for instance. Peloton's stock fell by 47.5% in just one week after their disastrous earnings. Turns out there isn't such a huge market for $2,000 exercise bikes (that occasionally kill you) after all. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

I don't see that crappy (to put it mildly) company surviving or growing over the next 5 years.
Which brings Peloton's stock back down to +100% in 2 years - doubling is not growth?  If "there isn't such a huge market", why do they have billions in annual revenue?  As to Peloton "surviving ... over the next 5 years", they've been around for 9 years already, founded in 2012.  There's a poster around here who advises people like you to do due diligence, so you don't overlook key information like this.

In an ironic twist, you mentioned "potential liability" earlier.  Is it a good idea to defame a public company?  If you misremember that their "bikes" "occasionally kill you", could there be civil penalties against you?  What I recall is that their treadmills could pose a risk of death for toddlers who got caught underneath - not "you" the buyer.

mycologylove

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Re: Growth companies in next 5 years?
« Reply #24 on: November 15, 2021, 12:08:32 AM »
As a young adult, growth stocks may be volatile and appear to have a higher risk but I dont mind taking on a bit of risk to maximize my returns. Im personally very bullish on Tesla , Gamestop, bitcoin in the long term say 10 years.

mistymoney

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Re: Growth companies in next 5 years?
« Reply #25 on: November 15, 2021, 07:34:28 AM »
@MustacheAndaHalf

:)

I have zero inclination to write some sort of long point-by-point rebuttal to your post, etc. Sorry if my post came off as a personal attack - I meant people in general, not you in particular.

I was referring to the general forum population. I get the overall vibe that quite a few people here are looking for a hot stock tip. That is not a healthy mentality. In my experience, such people are not inclined to do their own DDs at all. They just go all in and then get sad when their hot stock tip crashes and burns. The fact that one of the tips in this thread (PTON - Peloton) is a joke of a company that's tucked alongside other, less ridiculous tickers... Well, that does not inspire confidence. :P

Anyone else reading this in the future - please make sure to do your own research first and foremost before you jump on someone else's advice. If you don't have the energy or the inclination to go over a company's SEC filings, to look up their board of directors, to go over their balance sheet, etc - just stick with index funds.

I really don't understand this tactic of posting for or addressing imaginary people who read a post and buy stocks because of it, but then some admonishing post suposedly saves them from that?

Is anyone really that dumb? And if they are, how much time and effort do the rest of us really need to spend protecting them from themselves by stiffling our free and
grown-up speech?

It really seems it's just an excuse to belabored a point that doesn't need to be belabored.

ChpBstrd

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Re: Growth companies in next 5 years?
« Reply #26 on: November 15, 2021, 09:04:29 AM »
Here's a reason not to throw a big allocation into a small handful of tech stocks. The first chart is looking at the performance of the tech-dominated S&P500 minus the five biggest tech stocks: Apple, Amazon, Facebook, Alphabet, and Microsoft. In other words, the S&P495! The second chart looks at the percentage of the S&P500 dominated by these big firms, and how concentration is higher than it was right before the 2000 tech bubble burst. An optimistic trend-follower will say "I'll just invest in these companies!" but a more careful investor might say "holy shit.. look at the consequences of accidentally NOT picking one of the big 5 companies!" As the last chart shows, if you missed the big 5 this time around and invested in the S&P495, you'd earn close to the same returns as an investor in Japan's stock index! Note how the charts don't even account for the crazy bull market that was 2021!

All this also goes to say... things are looking a lot like 1999. All the money is piling into tech companies with sky-high PE ratios. Retail investors are in a frenzy about growth. Tech executives are becoming pop culture guru symbols. The Schiller PE is at 1999 levels, even as labor force participation has plummeted to levels last seen in the early 1970s when most women didn't work outside the home.
https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART

Add risk if you must, but be prepared for that 5 year retirement timeframe (when you should be considering a bond tent) to start looking like 10 years. Be sure not to fall into the fallacy of thinking about the next 5 years based on the last 5 months. If you consider 5-year periods for the last couple of decades, you'll see lots of reason to worry about adding risk halfway to the finish line.

Also, if you've never heard the terms systemic risk or nonsystematic risk, please read: https://einvestingforbeginners.com/systematic-vs-nonsystematic-risk-csmit/ . This explains why stock-picking adds a layer of risk that isn't compensated for and isn't there for index investors.


LetsRetireYoung

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Re: Growth companies in next 5 years?
« Reply #27 on: November 15, 2021, 09:19:06 AM »
Take PTON, for instance. Peloton's stock fell by 47.5% in just one week after their disastrous earnings. Turns out there isn't such a huge market for $2,000 exercise bikes (that occasionally kill you) after all. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

I don't see that crappy (to put it mildly) company surviving or growing over the next 5 years.
Which brings Peloton's stock back down to +100% in 2 years - doubling is not growth?  If "there isn't such a huge market", why do they have billions in annual revenue?  As to Peloton "surviving ... over the next 5 years", they've been around for 9 years already, founded in 2012.  There's a poster around here who advises people like you to do due diligence, so you don't overlook key information like this.
PTON had good timing. They went public in October 2019, just before the pandemic began. All their growth, all their $2K bikes being bought up left and right? All thanks to covid and closed gyms and people stuck at home. There's no pre-covid baseline, no 5-year chart to speak of... It all comes down to this: do you think people will keep paying $2K for those bikes when the pandemic finally ends? Or do you expect another once-a-century pandemic to hit soon? I think the odds are against that. With those main catalysts gone, their stock will not regain its ground. Without the pandemic, they never would've risen this high to begin with.

Quote
In an ironic twist, you mentioned "potential liability" earlier.  Is it a good idea to defame a public company?  If you misremember that their "bikes" "occasionally kill you", could there be civil penalties against you?  What I recall is that their treadmills could pose a risk of death for toddlers who got caught underneath - not "you" the buyer.
:)

It's not defamation to call out an actual fact. Their exercise machines killed people. Trying to deny that... Well, that's not as weird as Alex Jones saying that Sandy Hook victims were all hired actors, but that's somewhere on the same continuum. If you ever find a single case where a company won a lawsuit against a forum poster, please let me know.

[MOD NOTE: Yeah, okay, we banned this guy.  Not just this, but lots of stuff.]
« Last Edit: November 16, 2021, 07:04:37 AM by FrugalToque »

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Growth companies in next 5 years?
« Reply #28 on: November 15, 2021, 10:21:08 PM »
In an ironic twist, you mentioned "potential liability" earlier.  Is it a good idea to defame a public company?  If you misremember that their "bikes" "occasionally kill you", could there be civil penalties against you?  What I recall is that their treadmills could pose a risk of death for toddlers who got caught underneath - not "you" the buyer.
:)

It's not defamation to call out an actual fact. Their exercise machines killed people. Trying to deny that... Well, that's not as weird as Alex Jones saying that Sandy Hook victims were all hired actors, but that's somewhere on the same continuum. If you ever find a single case where a company won a lawsuit against a forum poster, please let me know.
How dare you compare what I said with people who deny children were murdered at Sandy Hook.

I guess this is your response to "if you misremember".  You don't provide a single news story or evidence, you lash out with stories of murdered children.

Herbert Derp

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Re: Growth companies in next 5 years?
« Reply #29 on: November 16, 2021, 02:56:13 AM »
Rocket Lab (RKLB) is my bet to beat the market over the next five years. Full disclosure: I am heavily invested. Recently, they have experienced 79% revenue growth year over year despite most of their rocket launches being blocked for many months due to Covid restrictions. This trend of high revenue growth is projected to continue over the next 5-10 years.

Rocket Lab is an extremely exciting company developing cutting-edge, vertically integrated technology to compete in an emerging market with enormous potential and an extremely high barrier to entry. They are led by a self-taught, visionary engineer-CEO who deeply understands the technology that his company develops. This is the kind of guy who as a hobby was building mini rockets in the machine shop he apprenticed at when he was a teenager!

Furthermore, unlike most of their handful of competitors, Rocket Lab has significant revenue and their technology is proven to work. Their product portfolio is diversified across multiple market segments which synergize extremely well (launch, space systems, and soon to be space services). They have a healthy mix of commercial and governmental customers with a large and rapidly growing backlog of unfulfilled contracts. The company also has a reputation of being ruthlessly efficient at managing cost and getting the largest return on investment for every dollar they spend on R&D—something that many companies in their industry fail miserably to achieve. I consider Rocket Lab stock to be a 5-10x opportunity over the next 5-10 years.

I have a very long thread about Rocket Lab if you want to read more. I have been closely tracking the progress of the company since March 2021, and I’m just as bullish as ever on the stock:
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/rocket-lab/
« Last Edit: November 16, 2021, 03:13:56 AM by Herbert Derp »

vand

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Re: Growth companies in next 5 years?
« Reply #30 on: November 16, 2021, 03:31:12 AM »
This thread is slightly hilarious imo.


Historically there is a much better correlation between "current valuation vs future stock price" than there is between "growth vs future stock price".

IMO if you want to beat the market in the next 5 years, you stand a much better chance by finding a company that has been beaten down and doesn't take an awful lot to turn it around and bring it up to just being average. When the market rerates something from "basketcase" to "ordinary" it does wonders for the stock price... certainly much more than when it continues to rate it "earthshattering" to "still earthshattering".

mistymoney

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boarder42

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Re: Growth companies in next 5 years?
« Reply #32 on: November 18, 2021, 01:14:13 PM »

mistymoney

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Re: Growth companies in next 5 years?
« Reply #33 on: November 19, 2021, 09:56:53 AM »

boarder42

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Re: Growth companies in next 5 years?
« Reply #34 on: November 19, 2021, 12:27:51 PM »
hearing a lot about nvda

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/topstocks/nvidia-s-stock-is-at-a-stratospheric-high-these-five-catalysts-could-propel-it-higher/ar-AAQxqur

That that anyone appears to be paying attention to my posts here, but....

NVDA up nearly 9% today. So, feeling vindicated.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/

you're calling a win on a 5 year play 18 days into the wager?

Its off to a good start is all I'm saying. :)

I don't disagree with the choice in any way. Though as great as their product is the collapse of crypto saturates the market with their product. Probably the largest risk.

vand

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Re: Growth companies in next 5 years?
« Reply #35 on: March 11, 2022, 04:35:14 PM »
This thread did not age well.

HPstache

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Re: Growth companies in next 5 years?
« Reply #36 on: March 11, 2022, 04:40:30 PM »
Costco (COST)

vand

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Re: Growth companies in next 5 years?
« Reply #37 on: March 11, 2022, 04:56:10 PM »
I'll throw my hat out there:

LSE:LGEN
Market leading life insurer who just put in a set of stonking results.
Trades on a P/E of 7.5 = cheap
Net income up 130% over 10 years = growing
20% ROE vs 13% industry average = efficient
7% dividend covered almost twice covered

5 years isn't a long time, but I think they will compound my weath at a significantly higher rate than the market
« Last Edit: March 11, 2022, 04:58:01 PM by vand »

vand

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Re: Growth companies in next 5 years?
« Reply #38 on: March 11, 2022, 05:04:02 PM »
For more speculative ventures:

LSE:BOO
LSE:ASC

2 fast-fashion companies that have been hit hard over the last few months for a variety of reasons, down 70-80%. May be a historically bargain entry point. They will continue growing and be much bigger in 5 years than they are today, yet trade on pretty undemanding PEs that you'd normally associate with a stalwart.

FB: I do think this is the bargain big tech play right now.