Author Topic: When to sell off a bad? investment  (Read 1707 times)

k290

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When to sell off a bad? investment
« on: August 19, 2019, 03:21:29 AM »
About 10% of my portfolio was in local REITs. This was before I started using a global ETF.

I didnt sell off the REIT stocks as in my country you are required to hold onto a stock for 3 years for it to be treated under capital gains tax, which is a lower tax rate than the tax done on "trading".

Since then the property market as really tanked in South Africa. I've lost 20% of my investment. This is due to governments land expropriation without compensation policy that is in the pipeline, dwindling investor confidence in South Africa, and an emigration outflux.

I'm really not sure whether to sell off these stocks and take the loss or hope for it to bounce back

daverobev

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Re: When to sell off a bad? investment
« Reply #1 on: August 19, 2019, 12:22:53 PM »
How are you taxed on 'trading' losses? I do hate it when the government gets to have it both ways - one outcome if you win, a different one if you lose (ie if it is treated as income if held under 3 years, it should be the same if you have a gain or a loss!).

I'd probably just get out if that is your long term plan, and invest in the 'correct' thing. If you are knee-jerking because of the change locally... step back and consider if you want to hold REITs at all, and so on.

vand

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Re: When to sell off a bad? investment
« Reply #2 on: August 19, 2019, 01:11:04 PM »
Forget what you paid for them. That's besides the point.
Do you still have faith in the investment and would you buy them again today at the going price? If not you should liquidate them without hesitation.

Yes there is the question of tax losses of offset gains, but letting that dictate what you do is letting the tail wag the dog. Just ask yourself if you think it is still a good investment.

It's worth saying, however, that often the best time to buy something is when the political and economic conditions are terrible, for that is when its a bargain. You will rarely catch the bottom. A defensive cost-average approach into a depressed market is a sensible risk/reward strategy imo.

terran

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Re: When to sell off a bad? investment
« Reply #3 on: August 19, 2019, 01:25:40 PM »
If you didn't already own the investment would you buy it for the amount you could sell for minus transaction costs (additional taxes for selling under trading rules, and fees to sell)? If not then you should sell, and if so then you should keep. Doing anything else would be the sunk cost fallacy at work.

Put another way: You can have the money or you can have the investment. Which do you believe is better? It doesn't matter if you currently own the investment or not, the choice is the same.

Bernard

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Re: When to sell off a bad? investment
« Reply #4 on: August 19, 2019, 02:46:59 PM »
I have some stocks that lost 80 to 95% of their value. Should I sell them now for pennies on the dollar or hold on to them, hoping they will recover? I have no use for pennies, so I hold on, waiting for a spike. That's different with a 20% loss though. If you have hope that these REITS will recover, hold on to them, if not, get out while you're only down 20%.

vand

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Re: When to sell off a bad? investment
« Reply #5 on: August 21, 2019, 04:07:15 AM »
I have some stocks that lost 80 to 95% of their value. Should I sell them now for pennies on the dollar or hold on to them, hoping they will recover? I have no use for pennies, so I hold on, waiting for a spike. That's different with a 20% loss though. If you have hope that these REITS will recover, hold on to them, if not, get out while you're only down 20%.

The same principle applies whether you are sitting on a 90% loss or a 9% loss. If you don't have faith in the investment you should sell it. What makes you think that those shares are more likely to stage a recovery than any other investment?  I'm not saying that won't.. +1000%/-90% swings are not uncommon in many cyclical stocks. Maybe you just bought at the peak of a cycle and need to hold on for the next cycle back up.. but as an active investor you have to judge that for yourself.  Pennies are still... pennies, which is better than no pennies.


2Birds1Stone

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Re: When to sell off a bad? investment
« Reply #6 on: August 21, 2019, 04:10:29 AM »
Having none currently, would you buy 10% worth of your portfolio of those same REITS at the 20% discounted price? If the answer is no, I would sell immediately.

bwall

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Re: When to sell off a bad? investment
« Reply #7 on: August 21, 2019, 06:46:19 AM »
When trading, it's necessary to make your peace with the tax man in order to be successful.

Which scenario would you prefer: A) paying 40% taxes on your profits or B) losing 20% on your trade?

I'd choose scenario A 100 times out of 100.

If you aren't willing to pay taxes, then you make decisions that result in sub-optimal situations like the one you are currently in.




DadJokes

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Re: When to sell off a bad? investment
« Reply #8 on: August 21, 2019, 08:11:17 AM »
Having none currently, would you buy 10% worth of your portfolio of those same REITS at the 20% discounted price? If the answer is no, I would sell immediately.

This is the best way to look at it. For anything (investment or otherwise), you should ask what you would be willing to pay for it today. If what you are willing to pay is less than the current price, sell.

Villanelle

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Re: When to sell off a bad? investment
« Reply #9 on: August 21, 2019, 12:36:14 PM »
People always go to the "would you buy it today" question, but I've always wondered why.

The whole point of having a well-considered investment strategy is that it prevents you from having to ask that question.  There are plenty of people who, today, might say that no, they would not buy their VTSAX.  That doesn't mean they should sell.  It means they are spoked by market volitility.  Asking if they'd buy it today and telling them to sell if they wouldn't gives them permission to abandon the "stay the course and let the market do its thing" mentality and make a decision to lock in losses. 

So I think that's the wrong question.  I'm not sure what the right question is, exactly, however.  But I'd start with coming up with a personal investing statement, or whatever it is we are calling it these days.  Completely ignore, as you write it, where your money is currently.  Decide how you want to invest.  Period.  Once that is done, then see whether your money is currently doing what you just wrote.  This sounds like a very risky, but potentially very lucrative investment.  Maybe your personal statement tells you that you want 5% of your portfolio to be more aggressive.  And maybe it says you want 10% of your money to be in REITs.  (Maybe it says none of those things.)  If it does, perhaps you sell off half of this REIT and use that money to buy a different REIT, and presto!, you've invested according to what is hopefully a rational, well-considered approach, not a frightened reaction to seeing a very red number. 

(Also, it was unclear to me if you've already reached the 3 year cap gains  exemption, or if you are waiting for it.  Assuming it makes a significant difference, if you are close (say, 2.5 years), it might make sense to consider this, even if you decide to sell.  If you are mon month 8, it probably doesn't much matter and you should ignore it entirely when selling, especially because you have no gains anyway. --This could be dependent on how losses are treated by your taxman.)

gertitorpe

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Re: When to sell off a bad? investment
« Reply #10 on: August 21, 2019, 01:15:26 PM »
With all the respect I would not hold a penny in South Africa. A REIT makes money out of real estate. In a country hit so hard by global warming, high crime rate, dysfunctional state and not respecting ownership in general your chances of making money of that investment is very low. With all the respect.

You want to own REITs in countries like the United States or the UK where your rights are in safe and guaranteed by the law. If your ancestor would have bought a land 200 years ago in those countries it would still belong to the family.
Talking from a country where property was taken by neighbour countries after WW1, the rest by communists after WW2 and now it's starting again with the latest regime.

bwall

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Re: When to sell off a bad? investment
« Reply #11 on: August 21, 2019, 01:34:40 PM »
Talking from a country where property was taken by neighbour countries after WW1, the rest by communists after WW2 and now it's starting again with the latest regime.

What a great riddle!

hmmmm could it be the Alsace region? (Taken by France after WWI, but not by the commies later. Maybe Macron is doing something there now via the yellow jackets?)
Or Czech Republic, Slovakia? Hungary? Austria? The Austro-Hungarian empire fell apart ('taken'???) after WWI and the eastern portions did fall to communists after WWII. But the latest regime? Maybe Hungary?
Or Poland? Nibbled on by the neighbors after WWI, commies after WW2 and the latest regime is kinda crazy there, too.
Or maybe Ukraine! Nibbled on after WWI, lots of border shifting after WW2 and definitely, definitely happening again now in eastern Ukraine/Crimea
Or maybe the Balkans? Everything fell apart after WWI (where were the border before/after? Dunno!) and became communist later. Then the 90's Balkans war saw it happen again.
Or the Baltics! They lost a lot of territory after WWI, then became communist after WWII, but now... maybe not so much, but only b/c Putin doesn't want that piece of real estate.
Or Turkey! They lost a lot of land after WWI, and have a crazy government now, but never went communist. ...

With that brief overview of 20th Century eastern European history, I'm reminded why everyone left....