Author Topic: GME deathwatch - how to profit?  (Read 72569 times)

jim555

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Re: GME deathwatch - how to profit?
« Reply #500 on: October 29, 2021, 01:52:03 PM »
The brain trust over at /r/superstonk thinks they have a way to stop shorting.  Unfortunately they are wrong both in their understanding of securities trading mechanics and the supposed cure.

Street name stock is held at Cede & Co. the DTCC nominee.  Every broker is a DTCC member and all hold shares in Cede & Co. who is the legal owner of all street name stock.  This enables clearing to be done internally at DTCC as all trades are netted against each other to create a daily net settlement.  Only few shares need to go to the Transfer Agent since Cede & Co. remains the owner throughout the whole process.  When customers open a margin account they agree that the broker can lend their shares for short sales.  Shares that are sold short are borrowed and sold in the market.  Those shorted shares then become a position in the buyers account.  There is no way for the buyer to know that the shares are borrowed, which means the process can be repeated.  This can result in more than 100% of the float being shorted.  This is entirely legal and how Wall Street works.

/r/superstonk have come up with the bright idea to remove the Street name position from Cede & Co. and place it with Computershare through the DTCC Direct Registration (DRS) system.  The only thing this will achieve is high fees for themselves and make the shares illiquid as they are moved around.  Even if a few percentage of a company shares are moved to Computershare the vast majority of all  stocks shares are still held by Cede & Co..  It will have no impact on anything.  The saddest part is "the apes" think they have discovered some way to force "squeezes" for the companies they are targeting,  the ABSOLUTE IDIOTS are too dumb to know their scheme will not work.  It all feeds into creating the false stories to feed the apes for the next squeeze play.  Reddit is loaded with idiots.  If you challenge them you are a "paid shill". LOL  Enjoy your loses morons.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: GME deathwatch - how to profit?
« Reply #501 on: October 29, 2021, 02:09:03 PM »
I wish we had news anchors talking like jim555 posts.  Using facts and insults is a fun combination, but facts are definitely key.  Which brings up a blogger who isn't so fond of facts.

Regardless of what he thinks make good investments (things that seem clearly like greater fool speculation), I can still agree with his larger point in that specific article about "don't fight the apes."
But he suggests you buy DOGE coin, why not follow that advice?

I don't think his DOGE coin idea was a one off - it represents how he approaches the article you liked, as well.  For example, he says the company isn't in debt.  Great, but they wouldn't be in debt at $50/share, too.  Companies that pay off their debt do not have to go up 20x in a year.

They claim the company is in "growth mode" because of a new fulfillment center.  First of all, that was Ryan Cohen's plan all along - to improve customer satisfaction.  It doesn't mean the stock should be up 20x.  And second, the company has declining revenues going back a decade, which is important context that gets ignored it saying GameStop is in "growth mode".  Ignoring evidence seems to be a specialty with this blogger.

So when the same person claims that "apes" have clout and staying power, it's hard to trust that claim.  To me it's another failed point in an article that ignores context and makes leaps that are not justified by the information presented.
« Last Edit: October 29, 2021, 02:12:05 PM by MustacheAndaHalf »

arebelspy

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Re: GME deathwatch - how to profit?
« Reply #502 on: October 29, 2021, 05:33:32 PM »
So when the same person claims that "apes" have clout and staying power, it's hard to trust that claim.  To me it's another failed point in an article that ignores context and makes leaps that are not justified by the information presented.

What is your explanation on why the price remains at $180 nine months later instead of being back down to, say, $50?
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arebelspy

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Re: GME deathwatch - how to profit?
« Reply #503 on: October 29, 2021, 05:34:35 PM »
/r/superstonk have come up with the bright idea to remove the Street name position from Cede & Co. and place it with Computershare through the DTCC Direct Registration (DRS) system.  The only thing this will achieve is high fees for themselves and make the shares illiquid as they are moved around.  Even if a few percentage of a company shares are moved to Computershare the vast majority of all  stocks shares are still held by Cede & Co..

And what if more than 100% of the float gets directly registered and there's still millions of shares held by Cede & Co.?
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jim555

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Re: GME deathwatch - how to profit?
« Reply #504 on: October 29, 2021, 07:35:09 PM »
So when the same person claims that "apes" have clout and staying power, it's hard to trust that claim.  To me it's another failed point in an article that ignores context and makes leaps that are not justified by the information presented.

What is your explanation on why the price remains at $180 nine months later instead of being back down to, say, $50?
Idiocy.

jim555

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Re: GME deathwatch - how to profit?
« Reply #505 on: October 29, 2021, 07:38:41 PM »
/r/superstonk have come up with the bright idea to remove the Street name position from Cede & Co. and place it with Computershare through the DTCC Direct Registration (DRS) system.  The only thing this will achieve is high fees for themselves and make the shares illiquid as they are moved around.  Even if a few percentage of a company shares are moved to Computershare the vast majority of all  stocks shares are still held by Cede & Co..

And what if more than 100% of the float gets directly registered and there's still millions of shares held by Cede & Co.?
DTCC holds the vast majority of all issues, like 90%+.  There is no way these "apes" could even move a few percentage out of Cede & Co..  Pure fantasy.

arebelspy

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Re: GME deathwatch - how to profit?
« Reply #506 on: October 29, 2021, 07:42:04 PM »


/r/superstonk have come up with the bright idea to remove the Street name position from Cede & Co. and place it with Computershare through the DTCC Direct Registration (DRS) system.  The only thing this will achieve is high fees for themselves and make the shares illiquid as they are moved around.  Even if a few percentage of a company shares are moved to Computershare the vast majority of all  stocks shares are still held by Cede & Co..

And what if more than 100% of the float gets directly registered and there's still millions of shares held by Cede & Co.?
DTCC holds the vast majority of all issues, like 90%+.  There is no way these "apes" could even move a few percentage out of Cede & Co..  Pure fantasy.

Oh, I'm saying if Cede and Co. still holds more than the float and a vast majority of all shares... and yet the entire float is also registered with Computershare?
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jim555

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Re: GME deathwatch - how to profit?
« Reply #507 on: October 29, 2021, 07:49:31 PM »


/r/superstonk have come up with the bright idea to remove the Street name position from Cede & Co. and place it with Computershare through the DTCC Direct Registration (DRS) system.  The only thing this will achieve is high fees for themselves and make the shares illiquid as they are moved around.  Even if a few percentage of a company shares are moved to Computershare the vast majority of all  stocks shares are still held by Cede & Co..

And what if more than 100% of the float gets directly registered and there's still millions of shares held by Cede & Co.?
DTCC holds the vast majority of all issues, like 90%+.  There is no way these "apes" could even move a few percentage out of Cede & Co..  Pure fantasy.

Oh, I'm saying if Cede and Co. still holds more than the float and a vast majority of all shares... and yet the entire float is also registered with Computershare?
You are not going to get but a small percentage to Computershare. 

Mutual funds, ETFs, Institutions are not moving their positions out of Cede  & Co., it simply will not happen, and they hold most of the shares.
« Last Edit: October 29, 2021, 08:14:21 PM by jim555 »

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: GME deathwatch - how to profit?
« Reply #508 on: October 30, 2021, 03:03:31 AM »
So when the same person claims that "apes" have clout and staying power, it's hard to trust that claim.  To me it's another failed point in an article that ignores context and makes leaps that are not justified by the information presented.
What is your explanation on why the price remains at $180 nine months later instead of being back down to, say, $50?

Same thing I said earlier:
GameStop's price was determined by the short squeeze at the start of 2021, not by it's plans for digital transformation.  GME is a meme stock with a price decided by WallStreetBets.
...
If WallStreetBets abandons GME, and analysts provide price targets based on company fundamentals, the stock price would drop sharply.  That already happened at the last quarterly meeting - a stock price drop, followed by a rescue from WallStreetBets.  If GME ever trades on fundamentals again, the stock price will drop quickly.

arebelspy

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Re: GME deathwatch - how to profit?
« Reply #509 on: October 30, 2021, 08:24:41 AM »


So when the same person claims that "apes" have clout and staying power, it's hard to trust that claim.  To me it's another failed point in an article that ignores context and makes leaps that are not justified by the information presented.
What is your explanation on why the price remains at $180 nine months later instead of being back down to, say, $50?

Same thing I said earlier:
GameStop's price was determined by the short squeeze at the start of 2021, not by it's plans for digital transformation.  GME is a meme stock with a price decided by WallStreetBets.
...
If WallStreetBets abandons GME, and analysts provide price targets based on company fundamentals, the stock price would drop sharply.  That already happened at the last quarterly meeting - a stock price drop, followed by a rescue from WallStreetBets.  If GME ever trades on fundamentals again, the stock price will drop quickly.

Yeah.

"If WallStreetBets abandons GME"

And that article is about how apes have stuck with it for 9 months and not to bet against them.

I don't see those ideas in conflict.

E.g. you're saying it is priced where it is cause internet mob ("apes"). That article says not to bet against apes sticking it out.

I'm tentatively agreeing with the article with the proof that the price is still $180, not $50.

Your quoted paragraph seems to agree. IF they abandon it...

But they haven't. Will they? Maybe. Maybe not. I wouldn't bet on it at this point.
I am a former teacher who accumulated a bunch of real estate, retired at 29, spent some time traveling the world full time and am now settled with three kids.
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MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: GME deathwatch - how to profit?
« Reply #510 on: October 31, 2021, 03:08:12 AM »


So when the same person claims that "apes" have clout and staying power, it's hard to trust that claim.  To me it's another failed point in an article that ignores context and makes leaps that are not justified by the information presented.
What is your explanation on why the price remains at $180 nine months later instead of being back down to, say, $50?

Same thing I said earlier:
GameStop's price was determined by the short squeeze at the start of 2021, not by it's plans for digital transformation.  GME is a meme stock with a price decided by WallStreetBets.
...
If WallStreetBets abandons GME, and analysts provide price targets based on company fundamentals, the stock price would drop sharply.  That already happened at the last quarterly meeting - a stock price drop, followed by a rescue from WallStreetBets.  If GME ever trades on fundamentals again, the stock price will drop quickly.

Yeah.

"If WallStreetBets abandons GME"

And that article is about how apes have stuck with it for 9 months and not to bet against them.

I don't see those ideas in conflict.

E.g. you're saying it is priced where it is cause internet mob ("apes"). That article says not to bet against apes sticking it out.

I'm tentatively agreeing with the article with the proof that the price is still $180, not $50.

Your quoted paragraph seems to agree. IF they abandon it...

But they haven't. Will they? Maybe. Maybe not. I wouldn't bet on it at this point.
I thought the implication was if this situation has held for 9 months, don't bet against it now, because that will continue.  The article does limit itself to "now" though, so I think we're in agreement: Will they?  Won't they?  We don't know.

Which begs the question, why invest in something that requires WallStreetBets to keep the price up?  When analysts get quarterly reports, their pessimism triggers selling that sends the stock price down.  Then WallStreetBets buys it back up.  You can look at the past couple quarterly reports to see what I mean - but you'll need to look at the few days surrounding the quarterly report of GME.

What I see currently is a stock going nowhere.  When will WallStreetsBets investors agree?  I'll guess.  I often see financial news use 12 month performance, even when they're measuring from Mar 2020 during the panic.  So maybe March 2022, GME's 12 month performance is going to look lousy.  That might be the next gut check for WallStreetBets.

For now, though, I don't expect GME stock to be that interesting until it's next quarterly meeting, in early December.

arebelspy

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Re: GME deathwatch - how to profit?
« Reply #511 on: November 02, 2021, 11:45:23 PM »
So what do people who are not on the GME train think of the movement of the past few days?

Essentially 180 (bottom of 173ish) last Wednesday opening to 219 (today's after hours). 20% climb on zero news? (Okay, one piece of news, on Friday it was announced the COO left--which most media pieces said was bearish for the company. BUt the stock climbed before that, and after.)

Do you think the Reddit crowd all randomly (or with some coordination) decided to start buying more and pump it up again?

I think we all have already agreed that the stock is not trading on any sort of fundamentals.

Where we disagree is that you (specifically M&1/2, but other skeptics as well) think it's just propped up by the internet crowd and nothing else is going on, whereas I think there's more afoot.

Going from 207 to 219 (+5.8%) after hours today.. why? I don't think it's the Reddit crowd randomly buying a whole bunch after hours or something.

IMO, it is manipulated to hell because of these short sellers, and at some point the day of reckoning squeeze is coming. They kick the can down the road, but can only do so for so long.

These sort of days, like the crazy day in March and such with the multiple trading halts, are the things that give anecdotal evidence to the theories, in my mind.

I think it'll head back to $300 before it hits $100 again.

We'll see.


EDIT: BBBY is up 80%+ after hours due to an announced stock buyback plan. This created a lift for all "meme" stocks which have traded in strongly correlated tandem, with speculation that they're all in a basket/ETF together certain hedge funds are shorting.  BBBY going up caused a runup on the others as well.
« Last Edit: November 03, 2021, 12:33:47 AM by arebelspy »
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boarder42

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Re: GME deathwatch - how to profit?
« Reply #512 on: November 03, 2021, 05:19:35 AM »
i think its white noise and its why i don't trade individual stocks or assets anymore.  BBBY is making me money now too hopefully it prices it self out of the small value sector and i can take my profits and run like i did with GME. 


ChpBstrd

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Re: GME deathwatch - how to profit?
« Reply #513 on: November 03, 2021, 07:14:22 AM »
I don't see GME as being in a short squeeze again, which short interest being only 12.2% of float. I am unpersuaded by claims that there is secret short interest out there, but I also don't have an explanation for why this isn't a $15 stock. Like @MustacheAndaHalf I am wary of betting any money on the long-term continuation of an internet fad, because I've seen a lot of internet fads.
https://shortsqueeze.com/?symbol=gme&submit=Short+Quote™

BBBY, however, may be explained as a short squeeze. Its short shares are >27% of the float. They just announced a deal to sell their products in Krogers and via a website.
https://shortsqueeze.com/?symbol=bbby&submit=Short+Quote

BBBY is buying back stock despite a balance sheet that is bleeding free cash flow and equity, and massive negative earnings, so I suspect the executives are trying to pump up the stock price up so they can cash out. I wonder how many options were tied to Q4 2021? These 3 announcements hit all at the same time because management wanted to sock it to the short sellers, and grab the cash themselves. I wish I had a bug in that boardroom.

What's really interesting about the BBBY short squeeze is just how pedestrian management's new ideas are. If supplying Kroger was the path to riches, we should all rush to buy Kraft or General Mills. If a website offering third-parties a chance to sell was the deal, WalMart has positive earnings and will likely crush BBBY in the long run. And if borrowing money to buy back stock and leverage to the sky with negative earnings was a smart move... you get it.

arebelspy

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Re: GME deathwatch - how to profit?
« Reply #514 on: November 03, 2021, 08:53:40 AM »
I don't see GME as being in a short squeeze again, which short interest being only 12.2% of float. I am unpersuaded by claims that there is secret short interest out there

I am persuaded.

Quote
but I also don't have an explanation for why this isn't a $15 stock.

Thanks for saying so. I think the explanation for why it isn't $50 is the internet mob not selling. But that isn't an explanation for the odd price movements, and I think short hedge fund fuckery is the only explanation for that.

Today's movement, for example.

The rest of your post was about a BBBY squeeze... But why is GME, AMC, BB, etc. all also moving in concert?

Today's market for meme stocks:


I think it's because all the meme stocks were shorted together in one "basket" via portfolio swaps and covering on BBBY has caused those to rise as well.

A few random links on this concept (literally just searching meme basket, so these aren't curated just a few discussing the idea):
https://www.reddit.com/r/DDintoGME/comments/pgnbru/a_deep_dive_into_the_basket_of_meme_stock_swaps/
https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/pbmcww/quanting_support_for_ucriands_latest_masterpiece/
https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/pb22oj/the_puzzle_pieces_of_quarterly_movements_equity/

It's this sort of weirdness that makes me think there is more afoot than random internet mob doing things.
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MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: GME deathwatch - how to profit?
« Reply #515 on: November 03, 2021, 12:01:36 PM »
After months of GME going nowhere, I closed my short calls a week before the stock price spiked.  While I left open the possibility of speculating on GME again, I haven't marked my calendar for the next quarterly meeting.  Maybe I'll watch from afar, with no GME holdings (outside index funds).


I am unpersuaded by claims that there is secret short interest out there, but I also don't have an explanation for why this isn't a $15 stock.
During the GME meme craze (meme-stop?), GameStop amassed more cash by selling shares.  They're sitting on about $3.35 billion (Sept 2021), which comes out to about $44/share in cash.  Which is good news for GME bulls, because that's enough money to fund a transformation.

But I think GameStop is too late to be a big player in NFTs.  They're still hiring a team while their competition already have marketplaces and celebrity endorsements.


I think it's because all the meme stocks were shorted together in one "basket" via portfolio swaps and covering on BBBY has caused those to rise as well.

A few random links on this concept (literally just searching meme basket, so these aren't curated just a few discussing the idea):
https://www.reddit.com/r/DDintoGME/comments/pgnbru/a_deep_dive_into_the_basket_of_meme_stock_swaps/
I should just ignore that and the link, but it's such an unusual concept I'm curious about it.  A basket of meme stocks means that GME and KOSS will move together.  Look at the 6 month stock price moves, especially the start of June.  GME spikes 3 times, but KOSS only joins it for the middle spike in price.  Why did KOSS drop back down while GME spiked again?  But take a look for yourself (YTD):
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GME/
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/KOSS/

So I didn't get far in the basket of meme stocks theory, because I didn't see enough correlation in their stock prices to consider them linked.  Is there a group of stocks that serve as a better example?  I'm skeptical, but curious.

arebelspy

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Re: GME deathwatch - how to profit?
« Reply #516 on: November 03, 2021, 12:33:15 PM »
You can see some in my screenshot.

The second link above talks about their correlation.

Or look at some of the links in this comment on that thread:
https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/pbmcww/-/hacu7qg

This is the original post of the theory:
https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/p37osl/are_futures_or_swaps_the_secret_sauce_to_price/

Give me any reason why BBBY announcing a store partnership and stock buyback causes a spike in these completely unrelated meme stocks. Yesterday AH movements and today's movements are very strong evidence for this theory (beyond various months of similar movement).

Just like I can find no other reasonable explanation for $340->$180 in minutes on March 10, I can find no other explanation why a stock in a totally unrelated industry makes a half dozen others move in concert.

Short hedge funds doing their thing is the only explanation I've found that makes sense.
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BigMoneyJim

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Re: GME deathwatch - how to profit?
« Reply #517 on: November 03, 2021, 02:31:58 PM »
So what do people who are not on the GME train think of the movement of the past few days?

Don't know what the value has been for weeks or months, mostly don't care.

I bought 2 shares briefly to be a part of the meme and maybe see if it got crazy quickly. Once I got tired of checking it daily or multiple times a day, I sold for a $200 or so loss. While I held it I spent tons of time thinking about exit strategy and whether I might consider buying more, and checking stuff online about it. Then I offhandedly liquidated $10k of my index funds without thought because I needed to top off my monthly expenditures bank accounts. I'm more of a "set it and forget it" investor and a "stick to a plan" investor.

I'm fascinated by the constant hopping from one foot to another as to why this stock is both secretly mega-shorted *and* has a promising future that will make the current value worth it. I mean beyond the fact that fundamentals has no support for this price, if it's still as high as the chatter seems to indicate.

For the "stick it to the short sellers" angle, that requires knowing when to move in and out, and I don't want to pay that much attention to the stock for this long! Also, if you miss your sell window you then lose out.

For the promising future angle, I guess I'd rather try angel investing than jumping into GME. It's kind of analogous. Yeah they got a cash infusion and some new leadership. That's a startup company, basically. Some weird hybrid of angel investing and an IPO.

For the crypto angle...<sigh>...I probably should keep my mouth shut, but crypto seems crazy to me. Or at the very least fad-driven. I mean I think conceptually it's very intriguing, but literally anybody can create a new cryptocurrency, and as far as I can tell NFTs are tied to one type of cryptocurrency.

And I still don't get why more folks haven't taken blockchain and used it to more cheaply do money wires and EFTs on a large-transaction basis. (For actual government-backed fiat currency transactions.) Or at least tried to apply it to a retail POS situation which would need to be done for cryptocurrency to be actually useful currency in the first place.

For a comparison overhyped stock, I think Tesla as a company is well poised to dominate the EV market, especially trucking. But I have absolutely no idea if TSLA is a good investment, because the company's success and the stock price have left typical fundamentals are are in hype mode. So I haven't touched TSLA directly even though I'm high on their future as a company.

Edit: I *will* say I find NFTs very intriguing *for content/media creators*. And if people are willing to pay a premium for an NFT, I liken that to collectibles like Beanie Babies or any other collectible. Ok, fine. I just have tons of doubt about the endurance of any given cryptocurrency as they exist today.
« Last Edit: November 03, 2021, 02:41:46 PM by BigMoneyJim »

ChpBstrd

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Re: GME deathwatch - how to profit?
« Reply #518 on: November 03, 2021, 06:34:26 PM »
@arebelspy these are some interesting thoughts, but because the actual swaps are hidden from everyone's view we are still speculating on their existence. We're also speculating that

I have a question based on a claim made at https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/pb22oj/the_puzzle_pieces_of_quarterly_movements_equity/


Quote
1) Melvin and other SHFs buy up ITM CALLs with low OI so that the counterparties are guaranteed.
2) Melvin and other SHFs exercise the ITM CALLs to obtain synthetic shares from the counterparty (Citadel, Virtu).
3) Melvin and other SHFs deliver the shares to the clearing house to close out of their original short position.
4) By delivering synthetics through the ITM CALLs, the counterparty (Citadel, Virtu) is now net short the trade and must hedge the short position to avoid forced buy-ins.
5) Melvin and other SHFs open Equity Total Return Swaps with the counterparty to reposition their shorts and still have short exposure - only this time, the shorts aren't on their balance sheets.
6) Short Interest drops because it is no longer reported on the SHFs balance sheet. Rather, it's on the broker-dealers who have special privileges for the sake of liquidity.
7) Counterparties open up DOOMPs to hedge these synthetics/Equity Total Return Swaps.
8) If the stock goes up, the SHFs are still screwed because they are "short" through the derivative exposure. Citadel and Virtu are also screwed by taking on the bag. Why would they do this and take the risk? They probably already have bags with other Equity Total Return Swaps or are involved in them through their own Hedge Funds.

And thus, it is a fake-out that the squeeze is "over".

My question is why "Melvin and other SHFs" would take step #5 to bail out their counterparties, when they could just meet their obligation  per step #3 and walk away from the trade? Is covering the counterparty's short exposure hypothesized to be a term of the deal if they pay back their exposure in swaps from the counterparties rather than shares? This is another moving piece in the theory that is invisible / without evidence, and Occam's razor does not like such hypotheticals. Why not just say the counterparties now have the short exposure?

My other question is why Citadel took a $2B stake in Melvin (which they are now starting to unwind). How much of Melvin's short exposure was paid for by this transaction, and no longer exists? Why is this dynamic not part of the narrative of what happened, as big a deal as it is?

If your reasoning is correct, it would be fairly safe to sell a near-the-money put on GME and earn 10% within the next 30 days. Are you doing it?

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Re: GME deathwatch - how to profit?
« Reply #519 on: November 03, 2021, 07:11:41 PM »
@arebelspy these are some interesting thoughts, but because the actual swaps are hidden from everyone's view we are still speculating on their existence.

Agreed. I don't know anything. All of my thoughts are opinions, not financial advice.

Quote
My question is why "Melvin and other SHFs" would take step #5 to bail out their counterparties, when they could just meet their obligation  per step #3 and walk away from the trade?

I think Citadel is both sides of the transaction; different arms of citadel are both parties, and they are very short GME through this method.

Quote
My other question is why Citadel took a $2B stake in Melvin (which they are now starting to unwind). How much of Melvin's short exposure was paid for by this transaction, and no longer exists? Why is this dynamic not part of the narrative of what happened, as big a deal as it is?

I think Citadel bailed out Melvin because Citadel was very short GME and if Melvin failed their margin call, GME keeps going up, hurting Citadel. So Citadel stepped in to bail out a smaller HF to protect themselves.

Quote
If your reasoning is correct, it would be fairly safe to sell a near-the-money put on GME and earn 10% within the next 30 days. Are you doing it?

I don't know what the stock will do in the short term (30 days). Or middle term. I do believe there are lots of outstanding shorts and it will squeeze at some point. In the meantime, the price movements are hard to guess, it's a very manipulated stock. One thing I have said for awhile as far as predictions is that it'll hit 300 again before it hits 100 again, and I still believe that. My position is long GME.
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Re: GME deathwatch - how to profit?
« Reply #520 on: November 04, 2021, 07:26:58 AM »
You can see some in my screenshot
The screenshot had no dates or prices.  I ignored it because that's not informative.  I did peek at GME and KOSS, and figured out that's a two day view.  There's lots of reasons stocks can move at the same time, like when Nike announced results and numerous other stocks moved.  Analysts updated their assumptions about all stocks based on what they learned from Nike's results.

More importantly, how does it help you speculate on GME?  Knowing that several stocks have some higher chance of moving at the same time, how you you invest differently?


Give me any reason why BBBY announcing a store partnership and stock buyback causes a spike in these completely unrelated meme stocks. Yesterday AH movements and today's movements are very strong evidence for this theory (beyond various months of similar movement).
"Bed Bath & Beyond announced the launch of a digital marketplace that will sell goods from third-parties"
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/02/bed-bath-beyond-shares-soar-more-than-50percent-after-news-of-kroger-e-commerce-partnership.html

I think a better way for you to argue this would be to say "isn't the main reason it's moving because of the short squeeze?".  And the article would agree with you, because it states BBBY is more shorted than any other stock in the U.S.

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Re: GME deathwatch - how to profit?
« Reply #521 on: November 04, 2021, 07:31:04 AM »


You can see some in my screenshot
The screenshot had no dates or prices.

You weren't asking for that. You were asking for tickers, which it had, and why I referenced it again.

Further, it said right before the screenshot that it was a picture of "Today's market". You can see the date on the post. It was opening bell to the time I made that post.

Yes, BBBY moved up because of potential squeeze.

Why does that make GME move up? Why does it make AMC or BB move up?

As for how does it affect my buying GME, as I said, it gives evidence to the theories about the short hedge funds.
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Re: GME deathwatch - how to profit?
« Reply #522 on: November 05, 2021, 08:47:31 PM »
The screenshot had no dates or prices.  I ignored it because that's not informative.
You can lead a horse to water... ;) @arebelspy already pointed out that it was a single-day screenshot. That was apparent in less than 20 seconds after I saw it.

But even if that screenshot were for 1 week or 1 month or 1 year, that would've made his point even more. Isn't it really damn fascinating how all those unrelated tickers have a virtually identical chart? They move up and down in near-perfect unison, and that's not the first time that happened.

The "meme basket" theory is not a conspiracy theory. Hell, we live in a post-conspiracy-theory universe. In our universe, the journalist who broke the Panama Papers story got killed with a car bomb. Angry rednecks stormed the Congress after being given tours of the building by actual government officials. JP Morgan spent half of the last decade manipulating the price of precious metals, and got slapped with a tiny fine. All of those are wild, crazy things - and all of them have actually happened.

Given all that, is it really so hard to believe that someone on Wall Street decided to lump a lot of meme stocks together to create synthetic CDOs or some similar product that they could pass on to their clients? Because to me, that sounds a lot less outlandish than an angry international money-laundering community killing a journalist with a car bomb. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯


As for my own GME involvement (and to keep this post on topic haha), I got into GME early on, in January, just before the big squeeze (I spent the weekend reading their DDs; their math checked out), and made 293% in 2 days. :) Since then, I would swoop in for an occasional swing trade: so far this year, I've successfully traded it 10 times, though with far smaller returns haha. Right now, I hold 100 shares at $169 cost basis, which I used to sell a 195c covered call for 11/05. (I did not see this spike coming.) I rolled them into 11/12 for a few more hundred dollars. The unholy combination of idiotic apes and some really big hedge funds appears to be dead set on holding the floor at or near $150, so it makes for a pretty good source of covered call profits. That call will likely get exercised next week, but everything is cyclical: I'll just buy it again on the downswing...

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Re: GME deathwatch - how to profit?
« Reply #523 on: November 05, 2021, 10:52:46 PM »
You can see some in my screenshot
The screenshot had no dates or prices.
You weren't asking for that. You were asking for tickers, which it had, and why I referenced it again.

Further, it said right before the screenshot that it was a picture of "Today's market". You can see the date on the post. It was opening bell to the time I made that post.
You claim to know what I asked, but won't quote me?  I asked for stocks that are better examples of correlation, as others can see from my earlier post, below.

So I didn't get far in the basket of meme stocks theory, because I didn't see enough correlation in their stock prices to consider them linked.  Is there a group of stocks that serve as a better example?  I'm skeptical, but curious.

So I didn't just want random stocks, I wanted examples of correlation.  Before the definition gets distorted, here's what asset correlation means:
"Correlation, in the finance and investment industries, is a statistic that measures the degree to which two securities move in relation to each other."
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/correlation.asp

Portfolio Visualizer provides an "asset correlation" screen where you enter stock symbols, dates, and correlation approach.  I used 2021 YTD, 20 day rolling period, and daily correlations (36 months would be odd for YTD correlations).
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/asset-correlations?s=y&symbols=VTI+VXUS+VWO+BND+GME+KOSS+BB+AMC+BBBY+PFE+CCL&startDate=01%2F01%2F2021&timePeriod=1&tradingDays=20&months=36

Why include BB and AMC on a list, when they are not correlated to GME?  Looking at YTD asset correlations, they are not correlated to GME at all.

I expect the claim that one day shows correlation - can you only invest on that one day?  You haven't said how this lets you invest better, knowing they moved together one day.  One day does not prove correlation - especially when WSB is deliberately manipulating their prices to cause a short squeeze.

I included PFE and CCL on the list, and you'll notice CCL has a negative correlation to PFE.  Yet Friday, both stocks had unusually strong gains.  So are they suddenly correlated stocks?  No, Pfizer impacted hundreds of stocks by announcing it had proven it's Covid-19 treatment is 89% effective.  Carnival Cruises can sail again more safely, airlines will have more passengers, hotels more guests, etc.


Asset correlation is measured over time, not on just one day.  Stocks can move together for one day despite being negatively correlated (PFE, CCL).  The meme stocks are being manipulated by WallStreetBets, yet still most of those stocks are not correlated with each other.

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Re: GME deathwatch - how to profit?
« Reply #524 on: November 06, 2021, 01:35:21 AM »
You claim to know what I asked, but won't quote me?  I asked for stocks that are better examples of correlation, as others can see from my earlier post, below.
I replied to your then-most-recent comment, in which you erroneously claimed that the screenshot had no date. That was objectively false.

Why include BB and AMC on a list, when they are not correlated to GME?  Looking at YTD asset correlations, they are not correlated to GME at all.
Actors that star in the same movie don't spend all day every day together. They only need to be together for one scene. If you had actually bothered to look, you would see that on the individual days with the biggest moves (up or down), those stocks move in unison.

Quote
I expect the claim that one day shows correlation - can you only invest on that one day?
Yeah, no, now you're just trolling. Farewell.

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Re: GME deathwatch - how to profit?
« Reply #525 on: November 06, 2021, 03:54:32 AM »
You claim to know what I asked, but won't quote me?  I asked for stocks that are better examples of correlation, as others can see from my earlier post, below.
I replied to your then-most-recent comment, in which you erroneously claimed that the screenshot had no date. That was objectively false.
Naturally, you're misquoting me, so if you want to nitpick over a meaningless point, I said "dates".  One date is not "dates".  There's no date range, showing correlation over time.  Not that I was even replying to you, but here's the quote you didn't use:

The screenshot had no dates or prices. 

And as usual, my entire post is about asset correlations, and the reply says nothing about asset correlations.  Instead there's an irrelevant metaphor about actors, which has nothing to with asset correlation.  I even provided a definition, because I knew in advance the reply would not mention asset correlation.

ChpBstrd

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Re: GME deathwatch - how to profit?
« Reply #526 on: November 15, 2021, 08:16:02 AM »
As most people here have said, GME is not trading based on fundamentals but if you treat gamestop as a SPAC startup with an incredible team of ex-amazon, ex-chewy, ex-walmart execs who now joined GME. We are more likely than not going to see some very interested innovation and speculation as in the long-term gamestop will trade as an ecommerce / tech company PE level. $800 / share will be considered "underpriced" given all this info in mind. Feel free to visit www.gmedd.com for more information, $169 is the bull case stock price according to their analysis.
If GME is going to $169, I suppose it's a short at $202.

My next thought (a bigger question than GME) is what a reasonable valuation should be for a SPAC? Why should a SPAC be worth more than the sum of its assets? The theory is that a SPAC can purchase a company and make it more valuable by listing it on the public markets or providing the infrastructure for dirt-cheap bond issues. In this process, SPACs can do an end-run around the investment banks by getting themselves organized  and on the markets while they and their costs are small, and then scaling up with investor dollars to save some small tech company a ton of traditional listing and underwriting fees (remember the reverse mergers by Chinese companies?). However, mergers are usually paid for at a premium to stock prices, so why not just buy stocks or private equity? If you buy companies already on the markets, you avoid the risk of overpaying for a SPAC which is basically a shell business paying a bunch of liabilities to exist. If you go the private equity route, you lose liquidity but get shares at a discount, and if the company is bought by a SPAC someday, you get that premium too. To pay a premium for a SPAC is to give up the premium earned by all the shareholders who benefit when a company obtains liquidity, right?

Of course, GME is not really a SPAC. They've been listed and liquid for years. The SPAC thing is a metaphor for handing over wads of cash in the hopes that someone who knows better than you finds a special way to spend it. GME has vaguely articulated plans regarding NFTs and economic transfers within games, but the tech world is full of potentially multi-billion dollar ideas, only a tiny fraction of which will ever earn a profit. What makes GME special? The argument is they've hired (thrown money at?) a lot of talent with the proceeds from their stock sale, and so they're bound to come up with something cool. Maybe they will, and maybe they won't, but at these valuations it seems more likely Microsoft is going to hit it out of the part with Windows 11.

arebelspy

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Re: GME deathwatch - how to profit?
« Reply #527 on: November 15, 2021, 03:08:22 PM »
I think most of the spac stuff is GME investors being wishful.

I do think if book value is $55 they are worth some multiple of that based on some of the potential (especially around etfs. I do think they're doing some interesting things with the Blockchain and loopring, and we'll see announcements around that soon), but idk what that price would be. I don't really care.

I do think it's overvalued on a fundamental basis unless you like speculating on up and coming technology; I think GameStop is more than a brick and mortar now.

But--more important to me--I also think there's clear evidence of weird stuff going on with the stock and price manipulation that makes it a good speculation opportunity because of a potential squeeze. I continue to be long GME for this reason.

The next prediction is a jump up in price next week, around the 23rd, perhaps +/- one day.

Let's see, shall we?
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Re: GME deathwatch - how to profit?
« Reply #528 on: November 15, 2021, 04:41:27 PM »
The next prediction is a jump up in price next week, around the 23rd, perhaps +/- one day.

Let's see, shall we?

Seems like a good opportunity for you to test a falsifiable hypothesis.

What could happen on 11/22 - 11/24 with the stock price that is measurable and objective that would mean you were wrong?

And if there is nothing, that's an interesting place to be intellectually.

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Re: GME deathwatch - how to profit?
« Reply #529 on: November 15, 2021, 04:43:05 PM »
I expect a climb of, say, 15%+ on or around that day, on no news.

If I'm wrong, it will be flat or down or only slightly up (say, like today's 3% move).

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Re: GME deathwatch - how to profit?
« Reply #530 on: November 15, 2021, 05:00:56 PM »
I expect a climb of, say, 15%+ on or around that day, on no news.

If I'm wrong, it will be flat or down or only slightly up (say, like today's 3% move).

Seems testable enough.  Good luck.

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Re: GME deathwatch - how to profit?
« Reply #531 on: November 22, 2021, 02:15:03 PM »
I expect a climb of, say, 15%+ on or around that day, on no news.

If I'm wrong, it will be flat or down or only slightly up (say, like today's 3% move).

When I posted this one week ago, GME had just closed at 209.14 (after opening at 203.86, up 2.6% on that day).

Today, a week later (one day before my prediction, but within the +/- one day range I gave) it closed at 247.50, an increase of 8.17% for the day and an increase of 18.34% since this post a week ago.

But--more important to me--I also think there's clear evidence of weird stuff going on with the stock and price manipulation that makes it a good speculation opportunity because of a potential squeeze. I continue to be long GME for this reason.

This remains true. It is not a normal stock.

The most benign explanation is hype feeding into itself--it becomes a known date, so more people buy right before that date, leading to a self-fulfilling prophecy. I don't think this is a sufficient explanation for what we've seen the last 10 months, and the fairly reliable, predictable movements.

I will admit it hasn't done the single day jump I claimed, but I also think there will be more action tomorrow, my prediction date.

Even if it doesn't do the single day 15%+ jump like I predicted, as they spread the covering over the last few days to not have a big one day jump, I'll leave it to you guys to judge the prediction. If it goes up again and ends up +25% since the prediction 8 days before, well, I think it'd be hard to call that a failure.

Normal stocks don't move 18% in one week on zero news/rumors, right?

Looking forward to tomorrow

As before:
Let's see, shall we?
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Re: GME deathwatch - how to profit?
« Reply #532 on: November 22, 2021, 03:37:14 PM »
I expect a climb of, say, 15%+ on or around that day, on no news.

If I'm wrong, it will be flat or down or only slightly up (say, like today's 3% move).

Seems testable enough.  Good luck.

After I wrote the above, I had second thoughts.

There's plenty of wiggle room in the above prediction:  the time frame is a few days, there is a wide gap between 3% and 15%, and there is also a prediction about news.

What if there's some news and an 8% increase?  What if there's important news and a 1% increase?

I think there are enough moving parts and wiggle room in the prediction that we'll see some more posts like the one immediately above.  In other words, my prediction is that no matter what happens, ARS, you'll find a way to justify your thinking that your current theory is correct.

That's normal.  Humans don't like to be wrong, thus we have the cognitive error of confirmation bias.  I'm just a bit sad, though, as I don't think long term that you're going to be proven to be right about GME.  Perhaps I have my own confirmation bias, since I don't own any GME except as perhaps a tiny sliver in my index funds.

Good luck anyways.

arebelspy

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Re: GME deathwatch - how to profit?
« Reply #533 on: November 22, 2021, 03:44:14 PM »
Perhaps.

One thing I think I am fairly good at is admitting when I'm wrong. Eventually, I may have to do that here.

If the stock were lower COB tomorrow than I was when I made that prediction with no significant jump, I was planning to make a post saying I was wrong. I don't know if you think I would have come on here and made some excuse/justification were that the case? Or even if we don't get a big jump tomorrow, I will still be wrong.

You're right that predictions often have wiggle room, but that was not intentional here, nor was the above post to claim any sort of victory (premature or not). As I said, I'll leave you all to judge the conclusion of that. I don't think it's been fulfilled yet.

The price movement is interesting to me, though. We'll see.
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Re: GME deathwatch - how to profit?
« Reply #534 on: November 22, 2021, 04:04:26 PM »
Perhaps.

One thing I think I am fairly good at is admitting when I'm wrong. Eventually, I may have to do that here.

If the stock were lower COB tomorrow than I was when I made that prediction with no significant jump, I was planning to make a post saying I was wrong. I don't know if you think I would have come on here and made some excuse/justification were that the case? Or even if we don't get a big jump tomorrow, I will still be wrong.

You're right that predictions often have wiggle room, but that was not intentional here, nor was the above post to claim any sort of victory (premature or not). As I said, I'll leave you all to judge the conclusion of that. I don't think it's been fulfilled yet.

The price movement is interesting to me, though. We'll see.

Eh.  Overall, I'm just watching and eating popcorn over here.

It seems to me that you want to believe, and it seems that a lot of (most of? didn't count them) your sources are reddit threads and posts.  I personally don't have a lot of respect for reddit as a source of wisdom.  And some of the aspects of your theory, as we've discussed previously, don't match my understanding of how shares of stock are held.

I guess I would think that the most likely outcome is that whatever happens over the next day or two will end up being neither a slam dunk confirmation of your prediction nor an abysmal failure that all could agree on.  And I think that whatever middling result happens, you'll be more likely than not to continue to hold to your opinion and your stock.

We all pays our money and takes our chances.

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Re: GME deathwatch - how to profit?
« Reply #535 on: November 23, 2021, 07:20:20 AM »
It doesn't match my understanding of stocks either.  But it's been insanely priced for like 11 months now.


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Re: GME deathwatch - how to profit?
« Reply #536 on: November 23, 2021, 10:26:39 AM »
It doesn't match my understanding of stocks either.  But it's been insanely priced for like 11 months now.

Heh.  I meant that some of ARS's explanations (which he's passing along from reddit in this particular part IIRC) about how certain market participants can create and sell short doesn't comport with my understanding of the underlying mechanisms of how shares of stock are tracked.  I continue to believe that it is not possible for there to be more shares outstanding than actual shares outstanding.  I think that there are market rules, and possibly SEC rules, that prevent otherwise.

But I've already expressed my thoughts, opinions, and arguments in favor of them earlier in this thread, and they were not persuasive.  So here I sit and eat my popcorn.

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Re: GME deathwatch - how to profit?
« Reply #537 on: November 23, 2021, 10:34:33 AM »
It doesn't match my understanding of stocks either.  But it's been insanely priced for like 11 months now.

Heh.  I meant that some of ARS's explanations (which he's passing along from reddit in this particular part IIRC) about how certain market participants can create and sell short doesn't comport with my understanding of the underlying mechanisms of how shares of stock are tracked.  I continue to believe that it is not possible for there to be more shares outstanding than actual shares outstanding.  I think that there are market rules, and possibly SEC rules, that prevent otherwise.

But I've already expressed my thoughts, opinions, and arguments in favor of them earlier in this thread, and they were not persuasive.  So here I sit and eat my popcorn.

Yeah, that stuff doesn't make sense to me either. 



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Re: GME deathwatch - how to profit?
« Reply #538 on: November 23, 2021, 12:12:24 PM »
While I disagree with ARS, and planned to eat popcorn (I no longer have any GME exposure outside ETFs), ARS has a point about fake shares.  It's known as "failure to deliver", and is not just a reddit conspiracy - the SEC provides data on it.
https://www.sec.gov/data/foiadocsfailsdatahtm

While wikipedia and investopedia explain failure to deliver, I looked for a higher quality news source, and found Bloomberg news:
Quote
On Jan. 28, the day after GameStop Corp. mania hit its crescendo on the back of a short squeeze for the record books, about $359 million worth of shares were caught in limbo.

More than 1 million shares were deemed failed-to-deliver that day due either to buyers lacking cash to complete purchases or sellers not having the shares to settle trades, according to U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission data.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-17/sec-data-show-359-million-of-gamestop-shares-failed-to-deliver

My take is this:
"failure to deliver": $359 million, 10 months ago
monthly GME trade volume: $19,194 million or 53x as much every month.

I think the original failure to deliver is noise compared to the trading volume since then.  But failure to deliver does happen, as shown by both SEC.gov and Bloomberg.

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Re: GME deathwatch - how to profit?
« Reply #539 on: November 23, 2021, 01:32:51 PM »
... I continue to believe that it is not possible for there to be more shares outstanding than actual shares outstanding.  I think that there are market rules, and possibly SEC rules, that prevent otherwise.
It is totally possible.  You have shares in a margin account, that means you agreed to have the broker loan your shares if they want to.  So you buy X, broker lends those shares for a short sale, I come and buy the shorted shares for my margin account.  My broker then lends them and the process repeats.  There is no mechanical limit on how many times this can be repeated.

secondcor521

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Re: GME deathwatch - how to profit?
« Reply #540 on: November 23, 2021, 01:50:14 PM »
... I continue to believe that it is not possible for there to be more shares outstanding than actual shares outstanding.  I think that there are market rules, and possibly SEC rules, that prevent otherwise.
It is totally possible.  You have shares in a margin account, that means you agreed to have the broker loan your shares if they want to.  So you buy X, broker lends those shares for a short sale, I come and buy the shorted shares for my margin account.  My broker then lends them and the process repeats.  There is no mechanical limit on how many times this can be repeated.

Yes, I've already been down that road earlier in the thread.  People didn't agree with me then, and you don't agree with me now.  I'm fine with that.  (If you're really interested in my point of view and reasoning, I believe I laid it out earlier in the thread.)

jim555

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Re: GME deathwatch - how to profit?
« Reply #541 on: November 23, 2021, 01:55:24 PM »
Yes, I've already been down that road earlier in the thread.  People didn't agree with me then, and you don't agree with me now.  I'm fine with that.  (If you're really interested in my point of view and reasoning, I believe I laid it out earlier in the thread.)
The rule makers would need to issue a rule saying if more than 100% of float is shorted then no more shorting.  But no rule currently exists.

arebelspy

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Re: GME deathwatch - how to profit?
« Reply #542 on: November 23, 2021, 02:37:13 PM »
My prediction for today's movement was very wrong.

Final result was basically opposite of what I said: -13.59%.
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MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: GME deathwatch - how to profit?
« Reply #543 on: November 24, 2021, 12:06:06 AM »
"GameStop Corp. (NYSE: GME) (“GameStop” or the “Company”) today announced that it will report third quarter fiscal 2021 earnings results after the market closes on Wednesday, December 8, 2021"
https://news.gamestop.com/news-releases/news-release-details/gamestop-announces-release-date-q3-2021-financial-results

frugalnacho

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Re: GME deathwatch - how to profit?
« Reply #544 on: November 24, 2021, 07:39:11 AM »
My prediction for today's movement was very wrong.

Final result was basically opposite of what I said: -13.59%.


jim555

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Re: GME deathwatch - how to profit?
« Reply #545 on: November 30, 2021, 08:48:19 AM »
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/robinhood-others-win-dismissal-meme-192120340.html

"(Reuters) -A U.S. judge dismissed a lawsuit accusing Robinhood Markets Inc and other brokerages of wrongly preventing retail investors from buying fast-rising "meme stocks," triggering a sell-off.

In a decision on Wednesday, Chief Judge Cecilia Altonaga of the federal court in Miami found no proof of an illegal conspiracy to cut off social media-fueled trading of GameStop Corp, AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc, Bed Bath & Beyond Inc and six other stocks."

DaTrill

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Re: GME deathwatch - how to profit?
« Reply #546 on: November 30, 2021, 06:43:16 PM »
The best way to profit from the GME show is to sell popcorn.  Any rational reason for the price left the barn last year. 

DaTrill

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Re: GME deathwatch - how to profit?
« Reply #547 on: December 04, 2021, 04:12:13 PM »
Framed original share certificates of GME may be worth a mint someday.

Investors who held one certificate of Enron still did well. 

https://www.bullmarketgifts.com/Enron-Corp-Stock-Certificate-p/1693.htm

jim555

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Re: GME deathwatch - how to profit?
« Reply #548 on: December 08, 2021, 03:14:59 PM »
GameStop shares fall as video game retailer reports widening losses in third quarter

"GameStop shares fell more than 5% in extended trading on Wednesday, after the video game retailer reported that its losses widened in the fiscal third quarter."

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/08/gamestop-gme-3q-2021-earnings.html


DaTrill

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Re: GME deathwatch - how to profit?
« Reply #549 on: December 08, 2021, 05:07:16 PM »
I traded a few OG "Meme" stocks in 2000.  SCON, which is trading for $2.90 today had a split adjusted high in 2000 of $60,000,000+.  There were a few other absolute rips in a few months, but can't remember or they are delisted, now the CEOs are "Crypto/NFT evangelists". 

https://www.bing.com/search?q=scon+price&cvid=5762ec243df84a30af6248b111698538&aqs=edge..69i57j0j69i64.2713j0j1&pglt=43&FORM=ANNTA1&PC=EDGEDB

This is all cryptos, Meme and NFTs today.

"Nobody goes broke taking profits" all old traders who still has money and a job.