Author Topic: Getting risky in here... Jumping out of the index funds  (Read 10600 times)

dios.del.sol

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Re: Getting risky in here... Jumping out of the index funds
« Reply #50 on: February 06, 2018, 10:19:24 AM »
Checking in on how the markets' recent adventures are treating you...

ysette9

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Re: Getting risky in here... Jumping out of the index funds
« Reply #51 on: February 06, 2018, 10:35:36 AM »
I’m more concerned about the fact that I don’t have any good books to read at the moment.

CrankAddict

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Re: Getting risky in here... Jumping out of the index funds
« Reply #52 on: February 06, 2018, 10:44:41 AM »
Checking in on how the markets' recent adventures are treating you...

+1

I spent Dec and Jan building a rule based trading engine for crypto.  Lots of backtesting, everything looking great.  First week of real use I made 30% (when the underlying assets were up about 10-15%).  The next week things tanked.  The next week even more.  I sold when I had lost the 30% profit and 25% of the initial investment.  It's down another 40% since then so I still almost feel like to have only had one kneecap broken.  Hope your experiment goes more smoothly (it can't really go any worse lol).  My belief is that more and more all of this is just gambling.  I read this today which seemed to agree:  https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-02-06/the-stock-market-is-a-lot-like-bitcoin

boarder42

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Re: Getting risky in here... Jumping out of the index funds
« Reply #53 on: February 06, 2018, 10:53:22 AM »
yeah stock buy and sell dates and purchase and sell prices published the day it happened on here would be much better for analysis.  anyone can post a spreadsheet in the future that shows awesome gains but if you didnt call it out ahead of time there is little credibility to the data.

Alex239

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Re: Getting risky in here... Jumping out of the index funds
« Reply #54 on: February 06, 2018, 02:18:28 PM »
I have made my daily target day trading /ES futures Friday, Monday and Today(Tues). Volatility just means my daily trading happens ALOT faster. Today I was done by 10amMST. Feels good. Day trading like OP mentioned will probably break even. The algo's love eating up your swing trades.

mtn

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Re: Getting risky in here... Jumping out of the index funds
« Reply #55 on: February 20, 2018, 02:58:38 PM »
Touching back. Since I've been in, I'm up 3.33% total. In that same time frame, VTI is down 3.99%.

Anyways, the picks that it had were TWTR and NKTR. It since had me sell TWTR.

While I believe in the strategy, I'm not sure my psyche can take it--too much in one stock. We'll see--I'm committed through July.

Cycling Stache

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Re: Getting risky in here... Jumping out of the index funds
« Reply #56 on: February 20, 2018, 03:14:28 PM »
Touching back. Since I've been in, I'm up 3.33% total. In that same time frame, VTI is down 3.99%.

Anyways, the picks that it had were TWTR and NKTR. It since had me sell TWTR.

While I believe in the strategy, I'm not sure my psyche can take it--too much in one stock. We'll see--I'm committed through July.

No offense, but this thread is worthless if you're not going to post your picks at the time you make them.  (Bonus points if you can explain the strategy behind your picks.) 

Otherwise, you're just some dude on the internet claiming he successfully timed the market/stock picked.

t185

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Re: Getting risky in here... Jumping out of the index funds
« Reply #57 on: February 25, 2018, 06:09:52 AM »
I like the heating with wood analogy.

For me, investing means NOT WORKING. If I have to spend time creating strategies to follow, monitoring the market, not sleeping at night, etc - that's not investing. That's a job. F that.

-W

LOL

privatefarmer

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Re: Getting risky in here... Jumping out of the index funds
« Reply #58 on: February 25, 2018, 07:15:15 AM »
Touching back. Since I've been in, I'm up 3.33% total. In that same time frame, VTI is down 3.99%.

Anyways, the picks that it had were TWTR and NKTR. It since had me sell TWTR.

While I believe in the strategy, I'm not sure my psyche can take it--too much in one stock. We'll see--I'm committed through July.

its a closed system. zero-sum game. blah blah blah. if your strategy beat the market by X% then by law another strategy with the same amount of dollars invested lost to the market by X%... its speculating. you can only win if others lose.... after transaction costs nearly all the market timers lose...

even if some  "momentum" traders have won by riding the hot stocks up, they've done so on the backs of some "anti-momentum" traders. Why would anyone be "anti-momentum"? Well, probably bc at the time they had some quant strategy they found online that told them they could beat the market...
« Last Edit: February 25, 2018, 07:17:34 AM by privatefarmer »

Mezzie

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Re: Getting risky in here... Jumping out of the index funds
« Reply #59 on: February 25, 2018, 10:42:23 AM »
I have some money to play with in the stock market, but nowhere near 20% of my savings. Heck -- nowhere near 3%. It's just enough that if I make a few dollars here and there it's fun, and just small enough that if I lose it all, I won't cry. If you have enough savings that 20% can be risked like that, then your're either in way better financial shape than I am or have a much higher risk tolerance.

Cpa Cat

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Re: Getting risky in here... Jumping out of the index funds
« Reply #60 on: February 25, 2018, 11:06:13 AM »
Good luck!

Remember to tax-affect the gains to understand your real returns. You will also want to run that with a time-value of money calculation to determine whether paying ordinary income tax rates on short term gains in the current year vs long-term capital gain rates in the future actually leaves you coming out ahead.

You'll want to compare that against the long-term expected rate of return on VTI, rather than the immediate short-term returns, because you would not have sold VTI to lock in any short term gains/losses on that mutual fund. Therefore, the short-term return on VTI is irrelevant.

thd7t

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Re: Getting risky in here... Jumping out of the index funds
« Reply #61 on: February 26, 2018, 02:50:38 PM »
I know it's been asked, but please share your picks before you purchase.  We don't need to know your algorithm.  Just let us know what and how much (%, not $) you buy and sell before you do it.  If you don't share the algorithm, people will not copy you or somehow ruin your trades, but it really will help you gauge if you're doing this as well as you hope.

Good luck.