Author Topic: flight to safety - coronavirus version  (Read 8748 times)

kenmoremmm

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flight to safety - coronavirus version
« on: March 03, 2020, 01:13:27 PM »
call me a market timer. i'm okay with that.

i'm thinking to move funds from VTSAX and/or vanguard 2045 target retirement funds to a "less volatile" fund like VBTLX or VMMXX. what downsides are there to bond funds and money market funds in this current flight to safety moment?

i'm okay with trading some upside for the allure of reducing the downside potential at this moment in time.

when will i get back "in" you say? probably when there's not a pandemic that's scaring most of the world into a panic.


SubL stache

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Re: flight to safety - coronavirus version
« Reply #1 on: March 03, 2020, 02:28:48 PM »
I don't understand why people come on here to announce I'm doing this and I don't care what you think....but what do you think...

Just do your thing.

Or if you are really bold, post the actual transaction data: shares, price sold at, money into alternative asset, and then keep the thread updated for when you jump back in and whether you fared better or worse. 

You might come out better, you might not.  Anybody calling their "brilliant move" in hindsight is probably full of shit or only sharing their 1 in 10 good call.

AdrianC

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Re: flight to safety - coronavirus version
« Reply #2 on: March 03, 2020, 03:09:09 PM »
If it makes you feel better move a fraction of your VTSAX and/or vanguard 2045 target retirement to VBTLX, like, say, 40%. Best to find your risk tolerance now, rather than if we really see a downturn - right now VTSAX is still up 8% over the last 12 months. That's pretty nice.

Telecaster

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Re: flight to safety - coronavirus version
« Reply #3 on: March 03, 2020, 03:16:28 PM »
when will i get back "in" you say? probably when there's not a pandemic that's scaring most of the world into a panic.

I think this is an epic blunder, but not for the reasons you think.  This is when there are some benefits to being a geezer.   The global banking meltdown in 2008 reverberated for a couple years.  First the banks bit the shit, then everybody who relied on banks started tanking because 1) banks wouldn't loan and 2) no body was spending any money.  And every month the news just got worse.  The markets, however, stopped its fall and began growing well before the recession ended, and something six months before the unemployment rate peaked. 

So if you ARE going to do this, get back into the market when the news seems like it couldn't get any worse.  If you wait until you here the all clear signal, you'll get your ass handed to you. 

kenmoremmm

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Re: flight to safety - coronavirus version
« Reply #4 on: March 03, 2020, 03:52:04 PM »
I don't understand why people come on here to announce I'm doing this and I don't care what you think....but what do you think...
because there was an actual question in the OP. thanks

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: flight to safety - coronavirus version
« Reply #5 on: March 03, 2020, 03:58:09 PM »
In response to the OPs original post, the downside of a money market or bond fund is you get some measure of safety for a minimal return that is being eaten by inflation. Long term probably not a good strategy.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: flight to safety - coronavirus version
« Reply #6 on: March 03, 2020, 10:06:50 PM »
call me a market timer. i'm okay with that.

i'm thinking to move funds from VTSAX and/or vanguard 2045 target retirement funds to a "less volatile" fund like VBTLX or VMMXX. what downsides are there to bond funds and money market funds in this current flight to safety moment?

i'm okay with trading some upside for the allure of reducing the downside potential at this moment in time.

when will i get back "in" you say? probably when there's not a pandemic that's scaring most of the world into a panic.
Why are you making decisions about your investments?  Why can't you leave them alone?

Moving from VTSAX to VBLTX is not giving up "some upside", it's giving up most of the upside.  Do you trust Vanguard's data?  Look at the "performance" tab for VTSAX versus VBLTX for the past 15 years:
https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/profile/performance/vtsax
https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/profile/performance/vbtlx

For VTSAX, it's 12.48% per year for 10 years.  So $10,000 turns into $32,416
For VBLTX, it's 3.89% per year for 10 years.  So $10,000 turns into $14,647.

One of them has $22,416 in profits, the other $4,647 in profits.  I would say giving up ~80% of the profit is not just "some upside", it's most of the upside.

Frankies Girl

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Re: flight to safety - coronavirus version
« Reply #7 on: March 03, 2020, 11:03:28 PM »
The downside is you're following the panicked herd in selling low and buying high. And the items you are buying are going to put even more drag on your portfolio.You and all the terror-prone investors out there are now selling their stocks at deeply discounted prices, sure to drop the prices even further and then either sitting in cash or buying bonds/CDs at inflated prices. This act will cost you way more than just leaving it alone and riding out the fear/panic.

Do you remember the bank panic scene in "It's A Wonderful Life?"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iPkJH6BT7dM

"Better to get half than nothing...." If you panic, you sell off everything and you're signing on to working longer just to rebuild back to the level you were at when this started. The bank wasn't going to fail, unless the people made a run and demanded every penny out, but then the guy mentioned Potter was giving 50Ę on the dollar. Why? Potter was buying up bargains because he knew human nature. Panicked people make poor decisions especially when it comes to money.



If you are convinced that flight is the best move, then a less damaging way of going about all this is to leave the current investments where they are, turn off all automatic investing, stop reinvesting dividends (have them put into cash) and all new investing/cash go into bonds or high yield CD/savings. Or at least leave half of it alone if you can.*

I 100% think that doing either of those is a terrible idea, but it's better than the absolutely abysmal suggestion to sell off all your stock positions now.




*you have no idea how much that pains me to write. turning off auto/reinvesting during a crash? That is crazy talk. You're basically saying - "hey I have no interest in the amazing sale prices on this thing I really love!"

Mighty-Dollar

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Re: flight to safety - coronavirus version
« Reply #8 on: March 04, 2020, 12:45:18 AM »
This corona virus scare is media and democrat driven. Listen to people like Dr. Drew. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PWY0oZV51VY

marty998

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Re: flight to safety - coronavirus version
« Reply #9 on: March 04, 2020, 12:52:11 AM »
This corona virus scare is media and democrat driven. Listen to people like Dr. Drew. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PWY0oZV51VY

Are you fucking serious? The virus originated in China, has spread worldwide and you blame the media and Democrats? Your Fed just hit the panic button to the tune of 50 basis points. Is that the fault of the Left?

Jesus Christ.

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: flight to safety - coronavirus version
« Reply #10 on: March 04, 2020, 03:23:19 AM »
This corona virus scare is media and democrat driven. Listen to people like Dr. Drew. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PWY0oZV51VY

Are you fucking serious? The virus originated in China, has spread worldwide and you blame the media and Democrats? Your Fed just hit the panic button to the tune of 50 basis points. Is that the fault of the Left?

Jesus Christ.
Actually itís Russian Bots. After changing the results of US Presidential election and running amok on obscure financial websites frequented by the FI community, it was only a matter of time. 

reeshau

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Re: flight to safety - coronavirus version
« Reply #11 on: March 04, 2020, 04:31:13 AM »
ďBe fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.Ē

--Warren Buffett

Malcat

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Re: flight to safety - coronavirus version
« Reply #12 on: March 04, 2020, 05:00:46 AM »
If you trust the market to recover, then why take out your money at all?

If you don't trust the market to recover, then why plan to put your money back in?

Can you explain the rationale for this decision, is it motivated primarily by not wanting to see your NW number drop any further?

I'm genuinely confused by the benefit here.

On a side note, in also slowly beginning to understand why people describe me as an "emotional robot".

AdrianC

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Re: flight to safety - coronavirus version
« Reply #13 on: March 04, 2020, 05:23:48 AM »
The downside is you're following the panicked herd in selling low and buying high. And the items you are buying are going to put even more drag on your portfolio.You and all the terror-prone investors out there are now selling their stocks at deeply discounted prices, sure to drop the prices even further and then either sitting in cash or buying bonds/CDs at inflated prices. This act will cost you way more than just leaving it alone and riding out the fear/panic.
VTSAX at the current quote is very much NOT deeply discounted. Though it's kinda funny that over the last 12 months Total Bond has a better return.

I'm going to say it again - OP, and others who are inclined to sell during this correction (not a "crash", not even a bear market yet) need to think seriously about asset allocation. They clearly have too much invested in stocks. There's no shame having some % in bonds and cash.

DadJokes

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Re: flight to safety - coronavirus version
« Reply #14 on: March 04, 2020, 06:58:31 AM »
I think the worst case scenario that I've seen is 4.4 million cases worldwide. If the death rate is 4%, then that means the virus will kill...176,000 people, most of which will be elderly. 176k out of a world population of 7.7 billion are nearly lottery jackpot odds.

People sure are freaking out about nothing much.

If you can't handle fluctuations in the market, then you shouldn't be in 100% equities to begin with.

Davnasty

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Re: flight to safety - coronavirus version
« Reply #15 on: March 04, 2020, 09:37:01 AM »
I think the worst case scenario that I've seen is 4.4 million cases worldwide. If the death rate is 4%, then that means the virus will kill...176,000 people, most of which will be elderly. 176k out of a world population of 7.7 billion are nearly lottery jackpot odds.

People sure are freaking out about nothing much.

If you can't handle fluctuations in the market, then you shouldn't be in 100% equities to begin with.

Citations? It doesn't really make sense to predict an upper limit right now. A literal "worst case" scenario would be that everyone on earth gets it but no one has enough information to make a prediction like that at this point.

ETA:Here's a good explanation of some possible outcomes based on what is currently known.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/04/two-scenarios-if-new-coronavirus-isnt-contained/

I've seen estimates as high as 40-70% of the world population (~3-5.5B people) but regardless of how many it infects in the short term, there's also concern that it becomes another endemic corona virus; there are currently 4 known endemic corona viruses and none are as dangerous as covid-19.
« Last Edit: March 04, 2020, 10:00:30 AM by Davnasty »

Telecaster

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Re: flight to safety - coronavirus version
« Reply #16 on: March 04, 2020, 10:35:15 AM »
I think the worst case scenario that I've seen is 4.4 million cases worldwide. If the death rate is 4%, then that means the virus will kill...176,000 people, most of which will be elderly. 176k out of a world population of 7.7 billion are nearly lottery jackpot odds.

People sure are freaking out about nothing much.

If you can't handle fluctuations in the market, then you shouldn't be in 100% equities to begin with.

I'm not so sure that's a reasonable worst case scenario.   This Harvard epidemolists thinks the infection rate could be between 20-60%

https://mobile.twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1234879949946814464

A wide range, I realize.   You can see there could be far more than 4.4 million affected.  I don't think will happen because China has demonstrated it is possible to contain it. The issue is that it requires extreme measures to contain it.  It is now estimated that the Chinese economy may be contracting.   There are rational economic concerns associated with this.



PDXTabs

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Re: flight to safety - coronavirus version
« Reply #17 on: March 04, 2020, 10:39:47 AM »
In response to the OPs original post, the downside of a money market or bond fund is you get some measure of safety for a minimal return that is being eaten by inflation.

I would add that:
  • Bonds are at an all time high right now. Buying now could be a losing move.
  • The Fed is trying to devalue the dollar as we type.

PDXTabs

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Re: flight to safety - coronavirus version
« Reply #18 on: March 04, 2020, 10:41:37 AM »
The virus originated in China, has spread worldwide and you blame the media and Democrats? Your Fed just hit the panic button to the tune of 50 basis points. Is that the fault of the Left?

Yes, everyone at the Fed (it was a unanimous vote) is a pinko leftie. Didn't you know?

OtherJen

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Re: flight to safety - coronavirus version
« Reply #19 on: March 04, 2020, 11:35:31 AM »
This corona virus scare is media and democrat driven. Listen to people like Dr. Drew. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PWY0oZV51VY

Are you fucking serious? The virus originated in China, has spread worldwide and you blame the media and Democrats? Your Fed just hit the panic button to the tune of 50 basis points. Is that the fault of the Left?

Jesus Christ.

Some people also believe that there are major conspiracies preventing us from learning that the earth is flat and that vaccines are less effective against lethal diseases than the essential oils you bought from a scammer MLM rep at your last moms' group meeting.

Telecaster

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MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: flight to safety - coronavirus version
« Reply #21 on: March 05, 2020, 08:12:57 AM »
This corona virus scare is media and democrat driven. Listen to people like Dr. Drew. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PWY0oZV51VY
Democrats... in China?  Chinese can't vote.
When you're trying to prove such a far out conspiracy, you need better sources than YouTube videos.

Glenstache

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Re: flight to safety - coronavirus version
« Reply #22 on: March 05, 2020, 10:31:18 AM »
Sell low. Buy high. Seems about right.

Joe Schmo

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Re: flight to safety - coronavirus version
« Reply #23 on: March 05, 2020, 10:46:27 PM »
Flight to...good time to burn dry powder??

Travis

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Re: flight to safety - coronavirus version
« Reply #24 on: March 06, 2020, 02:50:48 AM »


when will i get back "in" you say? probably when there's not a pandemic that's scaring most of the world into a panic.

What is your trigger? Number of infections? A particular stock price? How are you deciding there's no longer a pandemic? What does not panicking look like?

If you don't have any of these written down, you're just winging it.  There's also the possibility that the market will recover well before your predetermined metrics become reality and you miss a lot of upside.

J.R. Ewing

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Re: flight to safety - coronavirus version
« Reply #25 on: March 06, 2020, 07:17:53 AM »
Have you considered moving your money to an ETF that targets high dividend paying stocks?  Their downside would be considerably less that the general market, and you get paid while you wait for a recovery.

HeadedWest2029

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Re: flight to safety - coronavirus version
« Reply #26 on: March 06, 2020, 08:12:43 AM »
I'm way more worry about expected returns for bonds over the next decade vs stocks.  The 10 year treasury yield is now .7%!!!
The best indicator of future return for bonds is yield, so a pretty good bet it has a negative real return going forward
I'm sticking to my 80/20 AA for now, but really tempted to sell bonds and go 100% stocks. 

HeadedWest2029

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Re: flight to safety - coronavirus version
« Reply #27 on: March 06, 2020, 08:16:48 AM »
Have you considered moving your money to an ETF that targets high dividend paying stocks?  Their downside would be considerably less that the general market, and you get paid while you wait for a recovery.

Why do you feel there is less downside risk with dividend paying stocks?  We care about total return and value stocks with high yields are not immune to total return volatility.  Sure, dividends tend to be somewhat stable, but during the GFC dividends were cut.  In terms of ER, Big ERN debunked the idea that it buffers against sequence of return risk
https://earlyretirementnow.com/2019/02/13/yield-illusion-swr-series-part-29/

effigy98

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Re: flight to safety - coronavirus version
« Reply #28 on: March 06, 2020, 08:26:46 AM »
I love dividends. The problem I see with them is if they cut the dividend the stock plummets and becomes more volatile then growth stocks! Not a free lunch. If you want safety, go with uncorrelated assets like gold and long treasuries.

Telecaster

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Re: flight to safety - coronavirus version
« Reply #29 on: March 06, 2020, 05:20:17 PM »
If you want dividends, why not buy a ETF of preferred stocks?  Like PFF or PGF?


hodedofome

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Re: flight to safety - coronavirus version
« Reply #30 on: March 07, 2020, 10:13:07 PM »
As a trend follower Iíve been long bonds and gold for a little while which has certainly helped me over the past few weeks to cushion the blow to my tech stock only portfolio. Iíve taken half my long bond position off, and I may take all of it off it rates drop much lower in the parabolic move theyíve been in. Not that I think the bottom in rates is here forever, just that I can see some mean reversion happen for a while before rates continue their move lower.

As much as I enjoy bond prices going up every day and saving my stock portfolio from going in the crapper, I donít see bond prices being able to keep up this kind of pace much longer, at least in in the short term.

chevy1956

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Re: flight to safety - coronavirus version
« Reply #31 on: March 07, 2020, 11:05:06 PM »
As an index investor I intend to do nothing other than buy whenever I have enough money. The downturn sucks in that I'm losing on the scoreboard since a month or so ago but I figure that will turn around. This is a buying opportunity and it will be even if it's down for 10 years. I'd rather be invested in stocks for the longer term than bonds. I do have some bonds now. They've softened the blow a bit but the truth is I prefer to be in stocks over the longer term.

MaaS

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Re: flight to safety - coronavirus version
« Reply #32 on: March 08, 2020, 07:36:34 AM »
This corona virus scare is media and democrat driven. Listen to people like Dr. Drew. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PWY0oZV51VY

Are you fucking serious? The virus originated in China, has spread worldwide and you blame the media and Democrats? Your Fed just hit the panic button to the tune of 50 basis points. Is that the fault of the Left?

Jesus Christ.

It's pretty clear (IMO) that this post is in reference to the media's coverage of the Coronavirus, not the Coronavirus itself.

FWIW, I think the coverage has been reasonable.


MaaS

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Re: flight to safety - coronavirus version
« Reply #33 on: March 08, 2020, 07:42:18 AM »
I think this is a risky decision. If you're going to make moves like this, it generally has to be before the herd. There was plenty of evidence of a worldwide outbreak coming while the SP500 was at an all-time high.

The flip side of this is that there is a very real chance the fed cuts rates again in mid-March. If investors see signs the virus is slowing and decide the recovery will be "v-shaped" new all-time highs are quite possible this year. 

TomTX

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Re: flight to safety - coronavirus version
« Reply #34 on: March 08, 2020, 08:22:42 AM »
This corona virus scare is media and democrat driven. Listen to people like Dr. Drew. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PWY0oZV51VY

Are you fucking serious? The virus originated in China, has spread worldwide and you blame the media and Democrats? Your Fed just hit the panic button to the tune of 50 basis points. Is that the fault of the Left?

Jesus Christ.

LOL. He's referencing a clip from over a month ago which didn't age well and actually doesn't support his position anymore - because Dr. Drew starts off his tirade about the media because he wanted people to wait until we have something official from the CDC rather than media speculation.

Hint: We have something official from the CDC. Quite a bit, actually. The CDC which is part of the Executive Branch - which has been held by Trump for 3+ years.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/specific-groups/high-risk-complications.html

TomTX

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Re: flight to safety - coronavirus version
« Reply #35 on: March 08, 2020, 08:23:41 AM »
I think the worst case scenario that I've seen is 4.4 million cases worldwide. If the death rate is 4%, then that means the virus will kill...176,000 people, most of which will be elderly. 176k out of a world population of 7.7 billion are nearly lottery jackpot odds.

People sure are freaking out about nothing much.

Are you sure that was an estimate of global infections? As others have noted it seems WAY off from official estimates.

Perhaps it was an estimate of the number of deaths worldwide.
« Last Edit: March 08, 2020, 08:25:41 AM by TomTX »

PDXTabs

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Re: flight to safety - coronavirus version
« Reply #36 on: March 08, 2020, 11:02:34 AM »
I donít see bond prices being able to keep up this kind of pace much longer, at least in in the short term.

Yea, but that's what I said in 2008 and here we are! I still don't hold any bonds*, and I'm still not going to start, but bonds have done just fine over the last 12 years.

If you are down on the US government (or their response to Covid-19) it might make you even less willing to hold long term US debt. If the US really bungles this you could see a loss of confidence in the currency and the bond on the world market.

* - except I series savings bonds

Telecaster

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Re: flight to safety - coronavirus version
« Reply #37 on: March 08, 2020, 11:28:49 AM »

LOL. He's referencing a clip from over a month ago which didn't age well and actually doesn't support his position anymore - because Dr. Drew starts off his tirade about the media because he wanted people to wait until we have something official from the CDC rather than media speculation.

Hint: We have something official from the CDC. Quite a bit, actually. The CDC which is part of the Executive Branch - which has been held by Trump for 3+ years.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/specific-groups/high-risk-complications.html

Other than that, it is a Democrat driven hoax. 

kenmoremmm

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Re: flight to safety - coronavirus version
« Reply #38 on: March 11, 2020, 12:30:13 PM »
fun ahead:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/11/world/coronavirus-news.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage

for the record, i had moved out of equities with 20% of my portfolio at DOW=26000+-/. i moved out another 50% at 23500. planning to buy back in at 16000, or lower, when we get there.

hail thorstache.

Custom Concern

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Re: flight to safety - coronavirus version
« Reply #39 on: March 11, 2020, 01:30:14 PM »
Before selling it is always useful to ask yourself two questions: Who will be buying my shares and why?

kenmoremmm

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Re: flight to safety - coronavirus version
« Reply #40 on: March 11, 2020, 01:57:55 PM »
Before selling it is always useful to ask yourself two questions: Who will be buying my shares and why?
before buying, it is always useful to ask yourself two questions: who will be selling their shares and why?

DadJokes

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Re: flight to safety - coronavirus version
« Reply #41 on: March 11, 2020, 02:01:50 PM »
Before selling it is always useful to ask yourself two questions: Who will be buying my shares and why?
before buying, it is always useful to ask yourself two questions: who will be selling their shares and why?

Market timers who are freaking out.

Custom Concern

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Re: flight to safety - coronavirus version
« Reply #42 on: March 11, 2020, 03:24:40 PM »
Before selling it is always useful to ask yourself two questions: Who will be buying my shares and why?
before buying, it is always useful to ask yourself two questions: who will be selling their shares and why?

I buy automatically. I buy at regular occurrences at the beginning of each month after I receive my paycheck. My purchase is independent of market performance. I'm a buy-and-hold investor.

Let's continue your game and play fill in the blank:

I sell automatically. I sell at ________________ at the ___________________ after I _________________. My sell-off is independent on  _______. I'm a __________ investor.

Bernard

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Re: flight to safety - coronavirus version
« Reply #43 on: March 11, 2020, 03:37:45 PM »
fun ahead:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/11/world/coronavirus-news.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage

for the record, i had moved out of equities with 20% of my portfolio at DOW=26000+-/. i moved out another 50% at 23500. planning to buy back in at 16000, or lower, when we get there.

hail thorstache.


I've been buying in once or twice a week so far. I'd love to buy in at 16,000, but I don't think a meteor will hit Earth in my lifetime to get such numbers.

theolympians

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Re: flight to safety - coronavirus version
« Reply #44 on: March 11, 2020, 04:17:19 PM »
As the price of your shares is dropping, that is not the time to sell and buy something else. That's how you "lose money" and lock in losses. Ride it out.

kpd905

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Re: flight to safety - coronavirus version
« Reply #45 on: March 11, 2020, 07:11:26 PM »
fun ahead:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/11/world/coronavirus-news.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage

for the record, i had moved out of equities with 20% of my portfolio at DOW=26000+-/. i moved out another 50% at 23500. planning to buy back in at 16000, or lower, when we get there.

hail thorstache.

do you invest in funds that track the Dow?

kenmoremmm

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Re: flight to safety - coronavirus version
« Reply #46 on: March 11, 2020, 11:00:36 PM »
fun ahead:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/11/world/coronavirus-news.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage

for the record, i had moved out of equities with 20% of my portfolio at DOW=26000+-/. i moved out another 50% at 23500. planning to buy back in at 16000, or lower, when we get there.

hail thorstache.

do you invest in funds that track the Dow?

i had vanguard 2045 and VTSAX. so, while not a perfect track, it's close enough.

when the Dow hits sub 23000 tomorrow, i'll be up 12%, compared to the losses i would've sustained.
nba season just cancelled.
europe travel ban
my state (WA) is going on lockdown.
when this hits the rest of the country, you better believe the Dow and every other index is going to plummet.

market timing. yep. locked in my losses. yep. mitigating further losses. yep.

FIREin2018

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Re: flight to safety - coronavirus version
« Reply #47 on: March 12, 2020, 06:31:06 AM »
fun ahead:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/11/world/coronavirus-news.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage

for the record, i had moved out of equities with 20% of my portfolio at DOW=26000+-/. i moved out another 50% at 23500. planning to buy back in at 16000, or lower, when we get there.

hail thorstache.
well, i'm in the same boat.
i switched from vtsax to corp bonds (vwetx) in my rollover 401k.
i saved 15% while the market is tanking.

but now even corp bonds are being hammered.
selling vwetx ($175k) today at market close and staying cash.

plus i have another $225k in cash in my taxable acct.

question is what sign/signal to look for to get back into the market with that $400k?

kenmoremmm

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Re: flight to safety - coronavirus version
« Reply #48 on: March 12, 2020, 10:21:06 AM »
not sure what the jump back in signal will be, but my sense is that it's not coming any time soon. this is 2008 all over again, if not worse. the world, under today's level of globalization, has never seen anything like this. the disruption to supply/demand will be unprecedented.

frugalnacho

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Re: flight to safety - coronavirus version
« Reply #49 on: March 12, 2020, 11:30:34 AM »
Probably best to just sit on the sidelines in cash for the next 8-10 years, and reluctantly get back into the market after it increases 300% from its current valuation.  Every few months make a new thread about wanting to get back in the market, but you are afraid because it seemed overpriced the last time you made a thread, and it's increased since you made that previous thread, so you are just going to sit on the sideline and wait for that correction.  When that correction finally comes and you have to give up a fraction of the earnings gained from the last bull market (in reality you have no gains because you've been on the sidelines waiting for a correction since the last bear), then you get spooked and sell to lock in your losses and repeat the process.