Author Topic: Annuity Mortgage Arbitrage - good idea or stupid?  (Read 678 times)

dividendman

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Annuity Mortgage Arbitrage - good idea or stupid?
« on: November 29, 2022, 09:40:54 AM »
Let's say I have a 30 year fixed $500k mortgage at 2.8% and I'm paying ~$2100 a month for it (P+I).

If I hop over to immediateannuities.com I can see that $500k will get me (a 40 year old) $2572/month for life... so after my mortgage is paid I'd still get $2572 (plus the $472 cash flow per month until my mortgage is paid which could also be invested).

Why is this not a good thing to do? Isn't this a guaranteed return opportunity?

Is the biggest thing the opportunity cost in that getting a nominal guaranteed return is worse than just buying stocks and getting the (very likely) better return in the long run?



index

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Re: Annuity Mortgage Arbitrage - good idea or stupid?
« Reply #1 on: November 29, 2022, 10:21:11 AM »
I don't understand the question. Are you asking if is a better idea to buy and annuity than prepay your mortgage? You can't borrow 500k @ 2.8% to buy an annuity...

dividendman

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Re: Annuity Mortgage Arbitrage - good idea or stupid?
« Reply #2 on: November 29, 2022, 10:28:49 AM »
I don't understand the question. Are you asking if is a better idea to buy and annuity than prepay your mortgage? You can't borrow 500k @ 2.8% to buy an annuity...

I guess yeah, is it better to buy an annuity than prepay... :)

But if I've already borrowed it at 2.8% what's the difference of if I can borrow now or I already borrowed the money? I guess I don't see the difference.


ChpBstrd

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Re: Annuity Mortgage Arbitrage - good idea or stupid?
« Reply #3 on: November 29, 2022, 10:37:49 AM »
The only stupid thing to do would be to pay off a 2.8% mortgage. Opportunities to safely earn more than 4% are everywhere in today's environment, even in treasuries or CD's.

I too have noticed the 6+% yields on annuities and thought about the mortgage arbitrage opportunities. For example, instead of paying cash for a house, get a mortgage and buy an annuity to pay the mortgage. When the house is eventually paid off, the annuity becomes an income source for the rest of your life. That's a better deal than merely tying up one's money in a paid-off house.

This strategy might make the most sense with a 15 year mortgage, and especially for a young person. 15 year rates are around 5% now, so depending on age one might make an immediate monthly profit by using an annuity this way.

We're kinda in a strange spot with interest rates right now. Somehow, many corporate bonds are yielding less than comparable-duration treasuries, particularly for AAA and AA companies and durations less than 7 years. Meanwhile, those 6%ish returns advertised on immediateannuities look completely out of line with the returns on other assets, like the 4% yield on 20 year treasuries for example. So I'm kinda skeptical those rates are real (don't believe everything you see on the internet!). Dropped a line to my insurance agent to find out.

dividendman

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Re: Annuity Mortgage Arbitrage - good idea or stupid?
« Reply #4 on: November 29, 2022, 10:44:53 AM »
The only stupid thing to do would be to pay off a 2.8% mortgage. Opportunities to safely earn more than 4% are everywhere in today's environment, even in treasuries or CD's.

I too have noticed the 6+% yields on annuities and thought about the mortgage arbitrage opportunities. For example, instead of paying cash for a house, get a mortgage and buy an annuity to pay the mortgage. When the house is eventually paid off, the annuity becomes an income source for the rest of your life. That's a better deal than merely tying up one's money in a paid-off house.

This strategy might make the most sense with a 15 year mortgage, and especially for a young person. 15 year rates are around 5% now, so depending on age one might make an immediate monthly profit by using an annuity this way.

We're kinda in a strange spot with interest rates right now. Somehow, many corporate bonds are yielding less than comparable-duration treasuries, particularly for AAA and AA companies and durations less than 7 years. Meanwhile, those 6%ish returns advertised on immediateannuities look completely out of line with the returns on other assets, like the 4% yield on 20 year treasuries for example. So I'm kinda skeptical those rates are real (don't believe everything you see on the internet!). Dropped a line to my insurance agent to find out.

The 6%ish could be real since they pay you with your own money for the first long while and only if you live a long time do they actually start losing, and then they lose less since inflation will have taken a big bite by then (even if it's only 2% a year).

I also have to look up how annuities are taxed if using after-tax dollars to buy, I think it's only on the portion that's not your money but not sure if it's ordinary/interest income or something else, it could make a big difference.

I have always thought annuities were stupid fee-laden products but now I keep looking back at them :)

dividendman

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Re: Annuity Mortgage Arbitrage - good idea or stupid?
« Reply #5 on: November 29, 2022, 10:55:11 AM »
Also, and obviously, if interest rates do go down significantly, you can refinance your mortgage and still have the fixed payment from the annuity, which would be great.

ChpBstrd

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Re: Annuity Mortgage Arbitrage - good idea or stupid?
« Reply #6 on: November 29, 2022, 11:29:11 AM »
Also, and obviously, if interest rates do go down significantly, you can refinance your mortgage and still have the fixed payment from the annuity, which would be great.
Yea, these 6%+ annuities would be the thing to purchase if one was convinced inflation and interest rates were going to fall in the future. Recall that about 12-24 months ago people would have killed to lock in a lifetime 6%+ coupon. Now it's readily available and everyone's skeptical.

The flipside of that argument would be what happens if we go through a 1970s like period of high inflation. The purchasing power of any nominal return (CDs, bonds, preferreds, annuities) would shrivel, and you'd soon not have enough to live on.