Author Topic: Europe, Crisis, and Opportunity  (Read 27519 times)

smedleyb

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Re: Europe, Crisis, and Opportunity
« Reply #50 on: August 02, 2012, 07:18:14 AM »
Again, a thread devoted to discussing specific market activity (European markets) has miraculously transformed into a thread on meta-market techniques.



CptMrPants

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Re: Europe, Crisis, and Opportunity
« Reply #51 on: August 02, 2012, 08:27:12 AM »
Again, a thread devoted to discussing specific market activity (European markets) has miraculously transformed into a thread on meta-market techniques.

So for all of us that look back at 2008 and wonder how we passed such a great buying opportunity, how can we (stock and index wise) take advantage of this European Crisis?


James

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Re: Europe, Crisis, and Opportunity
« Reply #52 on: August 02, 2012, 09:59:53 AM »
I really do get it, even if my own investment experience has proven otherwise.


That's like saying a really hot day proves global warming or a really cold one disproves it.  Your anecdotal experience cannot prove or disprove anything, but it definitely makes sense how it would strongly impact your opinion and choices.

I do think the conversation on the issue here has matured over time as the various positions have become more clear and better fleshed out.  Like Grant I'm interested in your theory and actual moves that you make, while continuing to be suspect of your confidence in the ability to profit from your analysis.

James, here's a little secret:  today on Wall Street, billions of dollars of merchandise will be bought and sold by traders/fund managers who:

(a) employ technical analysis in order time their trades;

(b) employ behavioral psychology in order to time their trades;

(c) engage in fundamental analysis in order to time their trades;

They will do all these things, regardless of your or my perception of the utility/effectiveness of such endeavors. 

k?

Here's a little secret, your whole reply is called a non sequitur, it has nothing to do with my position that your "Your anecdotal experience cannot prove or disprove anything".  I will not comment on the tangent you took since you did not address my actual point.

arebelspy

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Re: Europe, Crisis, and Opportunity
« Reply #53 on: August 02, 2012, 10:19:51 AM »
From what I was able to determine, the studies I looked at determined that on average active fund managers underperformed (excluding fees) the indexes by less than a fraction of a percent over time.

The number I found was .4%.

In my reality that's called a push.

1) Assuming the study had a significant sample size, no, that's not a push, but an actual difference.
2) Even if it was, they still couldn't beat the market.  Despite that being their full time job and likely passion.
I am a former teacher who accumulated a bunch of real estate, retired at 29, spent some time traveling the world full time and am now settled with three kids.
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arebelspy

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Re: Europe, Crisis, and Opportunity
« Reply #54 on: August 02, 2012, 10:22:32 AM »
Again, a thread devoted to discussing specific market activity (European markets) has miraculously transformed into a thread on meta-market techniques.

If I say I can fly, with no proof, and others dispute that with mountains of evidence, studies, and show that no one else can, and I ignore them.

Then I start a new thread on the next time I'm gonna fly... Of course they're gonna start talking again about how it can't be done.

(Now yes, we have admitted it can, due to the law of large numbers.. Almost 1000 people in a million will flip heads 10 times in a row. But it can't be done reliably, such that one could profit on it. And millions of traders out there are the proof!)
I am a former teacher who accumulated a bunch of real estate, retired at 29, spent some time traveling the world full time and am now settled with three kids.
If you want to know more about me, this Business Insider profile tells the story pretty well.
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arebelspy

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Re: Europe, Crisis, and Opportunity
« Reply #55 on: August 02, 2012, 10:24:13 AM »
Again, a thread devoted to discussing specific market activity (European markets) has miraculously transformed into a thread on meta-market techniques.

So for all of us that look back at 2008 and wonder how we passed such a great buying opportunity, how can we (stock and index wise) take advantage of this European Crisis?

Good question.  Tangible "I'm buying X at $Y" is much more solid than "Crisis! ...I feel like it will go lower but I'm waiting" whereby when it goes lower you say "See!" and when it doesn't you go "That's why I was waiting.. Not time yet"
I am a former teacher who accumulated a bunch of real estate, retired at 29, spent some time traveling the world full time and am now settled with three kids.
If you want to know more about me, this Business Insider profile tells the story pretty well.
I (rarely) blog at AdventuringAlong.com. Check out the Now page to see what I'm up to currently.

CptMrPants

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Re: Europe, Crisis, and Opportunity
« Reply #56 on: August 02, 2012, 10:53:35 AM »
Again, a thread devoted to discussing specific market activity (European markets) has miraculously transformed into a thread on meta-market techniques.

So for all of us that look back at 2008 and wonder how we passed such a great buying opportunity, how can we (stock and index wise) take advantage of this European Crisis?

Good question.  Tangible "I'm buying X at $Y" is much more solid than "Crisis! ...I feel like it will go lower but I'm waiting" whereby when it goes lower you say "See!" and when it doesn't you go "That's why I was waiting.. Not time yet"

Well, that opportunity does not exist in a European Index Fund, like VEURX....it hasn't does much of anything since the 2000s.

At that point, do you have to bet on an index fund for Spain?

smedleyb

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Re: Europe, Crisis, and Opportunity
« Reply #57 on: August 02, 2012, 12:23:44 PM »
Here's a little secret, your whole reply is called a non sequitur, it has nothing to do with my position that your "Your anecdotal experience cannot prove or disprove anything".  I will not comment on the tangent you took since you did not address my actual point.

"Investment experience" includes observing and witnessing other traders do their magic for the past 15 years; it includes my own real time use of technical, fundamental, and psychological analysis in order to time trades, and witnessing others employ the same tactics to time their own.

What you did is latch onto a little sentence, misread it, and attempt to reduce everything I've been saying for weeks into being something like my own little private investment fantasy.

Have you read any books on technical analysis?

Have you read any books on behavioral psychology as applied to speculation?

Have you read any books on the role of fundamental analysis in exploiting market inefficiencies?

My guess is "definitely no" to the first two, and maybe a book or two dealing with the last.  But by all means, don't let a lack of knowledge of a subject deter you from throwing your opinion out there; hasn't stopped the resident efficient market hypothesizers from doing the same.

grantmeaname

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Re: Europe, Crisis, and Opportunity
« Reply #58 on: August 02, 2012, 12:35:59 PM »
Ooh, an ad hominem! We're really in unprecedented new territory here.

smedleyb

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Re: Europe, Crisis, and Opportunity
« Reply #59 on: August 02, 2012, 12:37:16 PM »
Ooh, an ad hominem! We're really in unprecedented new territory here.

Now it's a party.

Grant in the house!

arebelspy

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Re: Europe, Crisis, and Opportunity
« Reply #60 on: August 02, 2012, 12:45:26 PM »
Really though smedley, it would be nice if you addressed some of the arguments others are making.
I am a former teacher who accumulated a bunch of real estate, retired at 29, spent some time traveling the world full time and am now settled with three kids.
If you want to know more about me, this Business Insider profile tells the story pretty well.
I (rarely) blog at AdventuringAlong.com. Check out the Now page to see what I'm up to currently.

smedleyb

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Re: Europe, Crisis, and Opportunity
« Reply #61 on: August 02, 2012, 12:57:37 PM »
Really though smedley, it would be nice if you addressed some of the arguments others are making.

Which arguments?  I've yet to see one.

grantmeaname

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Re: Europe, Crisis, and Opportunity
« Reply #62 on: August 02, 2012, 01:09:23 PM »
James was arguing that a single anecdote is not sufficient proof of an economic theory. Start with that one.

smedleyb

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Re: Europe, Crisis, and Opportunity
« Reply #63 on: August 02, 2012, 01:13:39 PM »
James was arguing that a single anecdote is not sufficient proof of an economic theory. Start with that one.

I just responded a couple posts above.

"Investment experience" encompasses way more than my own profit and loss statements.

Next.

arebelspy

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Re: Europe, Crisis, and Opportunity
« Reply #64 on: August 02, 2012, 01:15:31 PM »
James was arguing that a single anecdote is not sufficient proof of an economic theory. Start with that one.

I'll add to that to clarify, based on smedley's previous response to that question:
Quote
"Investment experience" includes observing and witnessing other traders do their magic for the past 15 years; it includes my own real time use of technical, fundamental, and psychological analysis in order to time trades, and witnessing others employ the same tactics to time their own.

All of that quote is still your single anecdotal evidence.  So how about some other support (facts and hard numbers)?

I have read TA books, and still, no, the trend is not my friend. 

EDIT: looks like smedley posted right before me.  My point remains.. that is all your own anecdote.  Hard statistics would be nice, real numbers, rather than "I've seen wizards do it!"
I am a former teacher who accumulated a bunch of real estate, retired at 29, spent some time traveling the world full time and am now settled with three kids.
If you want to know more about me, this Business Insider profile tells the story pretty well.
I (rarely) blog at AdventuringAlong.com. Check out the Now page to see what I'm up to currently.

smedleyb

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Re: Europe, Crisis, and Opportunity
« Reply #65 on: August 02, 2012, 01:30:35 PM »
James was arguing that a single anecdote is not sufficient proof of an economic theory. Start with that one.

I'll add to that to clarify, based on smedley's previous response to that question:
Quote
"Investment experience" includes observing and witnessing other traders do their magic for the past 15 years; it includes my own real time use of technical, fundamental, and psychological analysis in order to time trades, and witnessing others employ the same tactics to time their own.

All of that quote is still your single anecdotal evidence.  So how about some other support (facts and hard numbers)?

I have read TA books, and still, no, the trend is not my friend. 

EDIT: looks like smedley posted right before me.  My point remains.. that is all your own anecdote.  Hard statistics would be nice, real numbers, rather than "I've seen wizards do it!"

There is an entire world out there that trades stocks the way I do.  There are thousands of books which attempt to explain and figure out the market using the methods and techniques I do. 

Enough with the ridiculous notion that these are "my theories."   

Anecdotes?  I got a thread which attempts to use TA in real time to locate buy and sell points.  I'm not shunning anyone's challenge, but rather attempting to rise up and meet your doubts head on with my day to day analysis of levels, news, psychology, etc.  I resent the idea that I'm constantly running away from arguments, or Grant's incessant fixation on my "ad homenin" tactics.  I make a couple remarks here and there (out of hundreds) and all of a sudden I'm this real mean poster.  Coming from Grant, I find that criticism laughable in a "tu quoque" kind of way...









Mr Mark

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Re: Europe, Crisis, and Opportunity
« Reply #66 on: August 02, 2012, 01:44:22 PM »
SmedleyB

Have you considered other forums where your efforts would be more contextually appreciated? Market timing and tech analysis is exactly antithetical to MMM.

'We' agree its
- possible to exploit market volatility
- hard to do
- very hard to justify even upside results on a per hour wage basis
- proven that even professionals fail to beat balanced asset allocation >80% of the time over 10 yr + time spans
- increases fees
- means you have to do a lot of work and fretting about the market
- should not involve more than a small % of your stash
- likely to loose most people money compared to alternative strategies

If you want to talk long term strategic asset allocation implications, great.

smedleyb

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Re: Europe, Crisis, and Opportunity
« Reply #67 on: August 02, 2012, 01:49:17 PM »
So in other words Mr. Mark, just shut the fuck up and get lost?  lol!

Yeah, I've though about it.  No, ain't gonna happen. ;)

My goal is to help others preserve capital (as a precursor to getting rich); not to chase overvalued and liquidity juiced markets.  I don't see how this is incompatible with mustachianism. 

JohnGalt

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Re: Europe, Crisis, and Opportunity
« Reply #68 on: August 02, 2012, 01:51:04 PM »
James was arguing that a single anecdote is not sufficient proof of an economic theory. Start with that one.

I'll add to that to clarify, based on smedley's previous response to that question:
Quote
"Investment experience" includes observing and witnessing other traders do their magic for the past 15 years; it includes my own real time use of technical, fundamental, and psychological analysis in order to time trades, and witnessing others employ the same tactics to time their own.

All of that quote is still your single anecdotal evidence.  So how about some other support (facts and hard numbers)?


There is an entire world out there that trades stocks the way I do.  There are thousands of books which attempt to explain and figure out the market using the methods and techniques I do. 

Enough with the ridiculous notion that these are "my theories."   



I think what is being pointed out is that yes, you may be able to beat the market and, yes, so may Buffet, Soros, and the like - you can probably point to tens, hundreds, maybe even thousands of people who have consistently beat the market over time using TA.  The question is what percentage does that make up of all the people using TA (or maybe even subset to just those using TA "correctly")?  Are 75% able to beat the market? 25%? 1%?  Basically - it doesn't matter how many people you can point to that have been successful if you don't also have an idea of how many have been unsuccessful.

Though - having followed most of the posts on both sides - I think you've clearly stated that you're not trying to convert anyone and that TA is not for the vast majority of investors and, personally, I would like to see the theoretical arguments dropped by both sides so we can discuss what you are actually seeing/doing. 

JohnGalt

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Re: Europe, Crisis, and Opportunity
« Reply #69 on: August 02, 2012, 01:54:55 PM »
SmedleyB

Have you considered other forums where your efforts would be more contextually appreciated? Market timing and tech analysis is exactly antithetical to MMM.


I strongly disagree with this... Smedley brings an interesting perspective to this forum.  MMM may not himself practice Market timing or TA, but does that make it anti-MMM?  If that's the case - do we all need to follow his investment strategy of real estate + broad market investing?  Where do other business ventures fit into the mix?  are they anti-MMM as well?

smedleyb

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Re: Europe, Crisis, and Opportunity
« Reply #70 on: August 02, 2012, 01:58:09 PM »
I think what is being pointed out is that yes, you may be able to beat the market and, yes, so may Buffet, Soros, and the like - you can probably point to tens, hundreds, maybe even thousands of people who have consistently beat the market over time using TA.  The question is what percentage does that make up of all the people using TA (or maybe even subset to just those using TA "correctly")?  Are 75% able to beat the market? 25%? 1%?  Basically - it doesn't matter how many people you can point to that have been successful if you don't also have an idea of how many have been unsuccessful.

Though - having followed most of the posts on both sides - I think you've clearly stated that you're not trying to convert anyone and that TA is not for the vast majority of investors and, personally, I would like to see the theoretical arguments dropped by both sides so we can discuss what you are actually seeing/doing.

Good, balanced post as always John. 

tooqk4u22

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Re: Europe, Crisis, and Opportunity
« Reply #71 on: August 02, 2012, 02:51:20 PM »
Though - having followed most of the posts on both sides - I think you've clearly stated that you're not trying to convert anyone and that TA is not for the vast majority of investors and, personally, I would like to see the theoretical arguments dropped by both sides so we can discuss what you are actually seeing/doing.

I like the theoretical discussions as well but they are becoming repetitive as there doesn't appear to be flexibility in the individual positions. 

A new thread would be good that SOLELY for you making your claims so that there is a clear and real time history of the good and the bad.  I realize you are doing that in the other thread that got off topic but also got bogged down with the back and forth.  If you do this, please do your best to limit it to the technical part of the trade and not the theories and hopefully the forum will return in kind.

James

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Re: Europe, Crisis, and Opportunity
« Reply #72 on: August 02, 2012, 03:21:20 PM »
Here's a little secret, your whole reply is called a non sequitur, it has nothing to do with my position that your "Your anecdotal experience cannot prove or disprove anything".  I will not comment on the tangent you took since you did not address my actual point.

"Investment experience" includes observing and witnessing other traders do their magic for the past 15 years; it includes my own real time use of technical, fundamental, and psychological analysis in order to time trades, and witnessing others employ the same tactics to time their own.

What you did is latch onto a little sentence, misread it, and attempt to reduce everything I've been saying for weeks into being something like my own little private investment fantasy.


Notice the words in bold?  That is additional evidence you are so far using anecdotal experience and not empirical or research data to justify your claims.  That was my only point, and it was not criticizing your use of that experience to guide your choices, only correcting what I consider a small but critical error in your use of the idea of "proof".  I myself use much of my own anecdotal experiences to guide my actions, though I recognize the inherent danger in that and attempt to balance that with research and empirical data.

englyn

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Re: Europe, Crisis, and Opportunity
« Reply #73 on: August 02, 2012, 07:43:29 PM »
Can any investment approach ever be proven? I suspect it's too large and complex a system and it will never be possible to predict anything for certain. Thus all we have is experience and anecdote to guide us. Statistically speaking, the plural of anecdote is data. (let's not argue about the validity or applicability of that data. That's a whole other thread).

Personally I'm trying to explain what I know about real estate investing to my husband and failing dismally. I base my opinions on a whole lot of perfectly good data, but because I am not writing a PhD thesis I remember my overall opinion - my learning - and forget the individual data points on which I have formed my theories. Therefore I find it hard to explain the basis of my theories. Are they useless because I cannot prove them?

So, personally, I'm interested in smedleyb's anecdotes and food for thought such as the question that started this thread. While often the process of debating is fascinating (not sarcastic, I mean that) I think it's obscuring actually learning stuff here. So can we please keep it to a few threads, allowing other threads to contain unsubstantiated ideas. For which of course caveat emptor - it's the internet!

arebelspy

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Re: Europe, Crisis, and Opportunity
« Reply #74 on: August 02, 2012, 08:44:24 PM »
I agree with JG that smedely shouldn't go, and that he brings a different perspective.  But I do agree with Mark that maybe it could be contained to a thread or two.

And maybe just a trading thread where he gives actual trades, instead of speculation which can't be falsified as one could claim victory either way when not making the trade (I.e. it did what they say, so they claim to be right, or it didn't, so they claim that's why they didn't buy yet, and claim to be correct either way).

Can any investment approach ever be proven? I suspect it's too large and complex a system and it will never be possible to predict anything for certain. Thus all we have is experience and anecdote to guide us. Statistically speaking, the plural of anecdote is data. (let's not argue about the validity or applicability of that data. That's a whole other thread).

But an anecdote or two is not valid data.

We can't predict the future, so at best we can look at what has worked historically, and what hasn't.

Buy and hold index funds has made the average person utilizing it much more money than the average market timer.
I am a former teacher who accumulated a bunch of real estate, retired at 29, spent some time traveling the world full time and am now settled with three kids.
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smedleyb

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Re: Europe, Crisis, and Opportunity
« Reply #75 on: August 02, 2012, 10:00:08 PM »
I agree with JG that smedely shouldn't go, and that he brings a different perspective.  But I do agree with Mark that maybe it could be contained to a thread or two.

Oh goody, I can stay?!

Yeah, I don't think Mr. Mark was saying that "it should be contained to a thread or two," because, if you stop to think about it, it is already contained to a thread or two.  I'm not sure who made him the authority on what is true and what is antithetical to the essence of mustachianism, nor do I really care. 

The Boss refers to this site as an "advanced personal finance" site.  We're beyond cutting up cards, or finding really thrifty ways to save on our car loans, or boost our savings from 5% to 10%.  We're beyond that shit, right?

It stands to reason then that an advanced, personal finance site should allow posters some leeway to discuss specific stocks and/or stock market situations.  So let's have some leeway, shall we?


 


Mr Mark

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Re: Europe, Crisis, and Opportunity
« Reply #76 on: August 02, 2012, 11:06:30 PM »
I'm not saying go away or foxtrot Oscar. But it's a bit repetitive. And generally bad investing.

And yes, I think tech analysis driven trading in stocks is anti-mustashian.

reverend

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Re: Europe, Crisis, and Opportunity
« Reply #77 on: August 03, 2012, 12:47:03 AM »
To take this discussion a different path...

Something like SAN (Banco Santander) who makes their money elsewhere, but have been beaten down from the general pecuniar malaise in Spain.  It's a bank. They don't make anything that will be out of fashion, they offer loans, they hold money. They basically don't *do* much and earn money on a spread of sorts.

Just my favorite sort of investment.

What other similar opportunities may there be in some of the affected Euro countries?

JohnGalt

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Re: Europe, Crisis, and Opportunity
« Reply #78 on: August 03, 2012, 08:17:06 AM »
They basically don't *do* much and earn money on a spread of sorts.

Just my favorite sort of investment.


Just curious... why do you favor companies that "don't do much" over companies that actually produce something? 

arebelspy

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Re: Europe, Crisis, and Opportunity
« Reply #79 on: August 03, 2012, 08:46:14 AM »
I agree with JG that smedely shouldn't go, and that he brings a different perspective. 

Oh goody, I can stay?!

See it's this attitude and general * (see: attacks towards other users) that makes you seem like an ass.  I was defending you. 

Chill out.


They basically don't *do* much and earn money on a spread of sorts.

Just my favorite sort of investment.

Just curious... why do you favor companies that "don't do much" over companies that actually produce something? 

I'm guessing he perceives less risk?  Quite possibly true, innovating is risky.
I am a former teacher who accumulated a bunch of real estate, retired at 29, spent some time traveling the world full time and am now settled with three kids.
If you want to know more about me, this Business Insider profile tells the story pretty well.
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smedleyb

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Re: Europe, Crisis, and Opportunity
« Reply #80 on: August 03, 2012, 01:08:29 PM »
See it's this attitude and general * (see: attacks towards other users) that makes you seem like an ass.  I was defending you. 

Chill out.

I'm chill.

« Last Edit: August 03, 2012, 01:53:05 PM by smedleyb »

smedleyb

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Re: Europe, Crisis, and Opportunity
« Reply #81 on: August 04, 2012, 04:36:41 AM »
To take this discussion a different path...

Something like SAN (Banco Santander) who makes their money elsewhere, but have been beaten down from the general pecuniar malaise in Spain.  It's a bank. They don't make anything that will be out of fashion, they offer loans, they hold money. They basically don't *do* much and earn money on a spread of sorts.

Just my favorite sort of investment.

What other similar opportunities may there be in some of the affected Euro countries?

I've always been partial to the Spanish market ETF EWP as a means of playing the rebound in Spain.  The IBEX 35 is down 60% from its peak, and unless you think Spain is closing up shop, it makes sense to start sniffing around for opportunities.  I used to track Banco's stock price as a proxy for Spanish banks in general, and I actually have traded it in the past.  Recently I lost track of it after they changed the ticker symbol, which is understandable since who wants to buy an STD? (new ticker is SAN). 

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Re: Europe, Crisis, and Opportunity
« Reply #82 on: August 04, 2012, 06:59:04 PM »
Ah, finally, back to the original topic! I was about to call in the UN here...

IMHO there are certainly some opportunities to be had, especially in the South of Europe. I was looking into Repsol as a possible investment now that in the near future I will have to put my Logica money elsewhere, since they're about to be taken over. Isn't the financial sector affected too much by the recent financial turmoil? You can't really exclude that they still have some skeletons in the closet...

Smedley, what do you think of Zu(e)rich Financial Services as a dividend investment? (Don't know the exact symbol, I track my investments on another computer)

L.

smedleyb

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Re: Europe, Crisis, and Opportunity
« Reply #83 on: August 04, 2012, 08:16:40 PM »
Ah, finally, back to the original topic! I was about to call in the UN here...

IMHO there are certainly some opportunities to be had, especially in the South of Europe. I was looking into Repsol as a possible investment now that in the near future I will have to put my Logica money elsewhere, since they're about to be taken over. Isn't the financial sector affected too much by the recent financial turmoil? You can't really exclude that they still have some skeletons in the closet...

Smedley, what do you think of Zu(e)rich Financial Services as a dividend investment? (Don't know the exact symbol, I track my investments on another computer)

L.

I agree Lex, investing in European financials is a dangerous game; an although it seems that the ECB has effectively turned the tide (see the following chart on Spanish 2 years treasuries: http://www.businessinsider.com/spanish-2-year-rally-august-2-2012-8), it's still way to soon to know for certain if last week's market bounce and bond rally is sustainable.  If not, expect much more pain in the near future.  Deutsche Bank is my primary Euro bank proxy (DB) and I'll be watching it closely for clues as to the fate of Europe's financial future.

As far as ZURN is concerned, I have no opinion either way.   I confess that I'm not well versed in individual European securities.


« Last Edit: August 04, 2012, 08:18:31 PM by smedleyb »

tooqk4u22

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Re: Europe, Crisis, and Opportunity
« Reply #84 on: August 06, 2012, 02:28:25 PM »
To take this discussion a different path...

Something like SAN (Banco Santander) who makes their money elsewhere, but have been beaten down from the general pecuniar malaise in Spain.  It's a bank. They don't make anything that will be out of fashion, they offer loans, they hold money. They basically don't *do* much and earn money on a spread of sorts.

Just my favorite sort of investment.

What other similar opportunities may there be in some of the affected Euro countries?

I've always been partial to the Spanish market ETF EWP as a means of playing the rebound in Spain.  The IBEX 35 is down 60% from its peak, and unless you think Spain is closing up shop, it makes sense to start sniffing around for opportunities.  I used to track Banco's stock price as a proxy for Spanish banks in general, and I actually have traded it in the past.  Recently I lost track of it after they changed the ticker symbol, which is understandable since who wants to buy an STD? (new ticker is SAN).


Just looked at EWP out of curiousity and it appears SAN and TEF account for 40% of the index, so it really depends on your view and potential outcome of these two.

smedleyb

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Re: Europe, Crisis, and Opportunity
« Reply #85 on: August 06, 2012, 03:11:49 PM »
To take this discussion a different path...

Something like SAN (Banco Santander) who makes their money elsewhere, but have been beaten down from the general pecuniar malaise in Spain.  It's a bank. They don't make anything that will be out of fashion, they offer loans, they hold money. They basically don't *do* much and earn money on a spread of sorts.

Just my favorite sort of investment.

What other similar opportunities may there be in some of the affected Euro countries?

I've always been partial to the Spanish market ETF EWP as a means of playing the rebound in Spain.  The IBEX 35 is down 60% from its peak, and unless you think Spain is closing up shop, it makes sense to start sniffing around for opportunities.  I used to track Banco's stock price as a proxy for Spanish banks in general, and I actually have traded it in the past.  Recently I lost track of it after they changed the ticker symbol, which is understandable since who wants to buy an STD? (new ticker is SAN).

To be clear, TEF and SAN comprise 40% of the IBEX 35; the EWP tracks the index, nothing more.


Just looked at EWP out of curiousity and it appears SAN and TEF account for 40% of the index, so it really depends on your view and potential outcome of these two.

Just to be clear, the EWP tracks the IBEX 35, Spain's primary index.  It's an index ETF, like SPY or QQQ.
« Last Edit: August 06, 2012, 03:19:10 PM by smedleyb »

tooqk4u22

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Re: Europe, Crisis, and Opportunity
« Reply #86 on: August 06, 2012, 03:19:39 PM »
To be clear, TEF and SAN comprise 40% of the IBEX 35; the EWP tracks the index, nothing more.


Just looked at EWP out of curiousity and it appears SAN and TEF account for 40% of the index, so it really depends on your view and potential outcome of these two.


Or nothing less....but you said you liked the index and SAN at some point, and I was pointing out that this index is concentrated in two stocks - doesn't make it good or bad but much more akin to investing in just these stocks on an individual basis and the 60% decline is likely driven by these two stocks.  The point is if you hate these two stocks then you shouldn't touch EWP and the opposite is also the case.