Market timing wins

[FINate]

In late 2008/early 2009 we had a pile of cash tied up due to a relocation, potential real estate transaction, and uncertain tax situation. All these things just happened to get resolved in early 2009 which meant we had a bunch of cash sitting on the sidelines. This was the depths of the financial crisis.

We lump sum invested it in an index fund even though it was difficult emotionally since everyone was freaking out about the market and the future - in hindsight it's easy to forget how scared everyone was at that time. Our purely accidental timing was impeccable, March of 2009, the low point of the market.

[talltexan]

I have benefitted from good timing in the job market (started first job after school in Sep. 2008), but I did an experiment with my christmas card list and looked up some friends on zillow. It sure seems like a bunch of them bought houses for $350k-$450k in 2011, and those houses today are appraising for $750!

[Abe Froman]

Great thread Sol - thank you.
My own story involves three - 2 of which I have already read here.
1st was way back in 2009 - when there was a "semi-flash crash" of banks and Bank of America shot down to $3-ish dollars. Knowing they were "too big to fail" I threw $1000 at it. Still have it sitting there. The other was 2000 shares of Sirius (SIRI) when it went down to around $0.30. Lastly - when Oil and Energy was tanking bought a pile of VDE.  Still sitting on all of them - so these are really unrealized gains.

I do this only with my play money - and what I feel I can honestly lose.

But this sort of investing advice comes straight from out classic movie - CaddyShack - when Rodney Dangerfield takes a call on the course and states "... everyone is buying? SELL !!!! Everyone is selling? BUY !!!!"

Seems to work pretty well.

Oh - and one more.... when Orbital (Rockets) crashed on their launch out of Virginia - I bought a handful. Like they say - when there is blood on the street, buy property !!!!

[mtn]

Great thread Sol - thank you.
My own story involves three - 2 of which I have already read here.
1st was way back in 2009 - when there was a "semi-flash crash" of banks and Bank of America shot down to $3-ish dollars. Knowing they were "too big to fail" I threw $1000 at it. Still have it sitting there. The other was 2000 shares of Sirius (SIRI) when it went down to around $0.30. Lastly - when Oil and Energy was tanking bought a pile of VDE.  Still sitting on all of them - so these are really unrealized gains.

I do this only with my play money - and what I feel I can honestly lose.

But this sort of investing advice comes straight from out classic movie - CaddyShack - when Rodney Dangerfield takes a call on the course and states "... everyone is buying? SELL !!!! Everyone is selling? BUY !!!!"

Seems to work pretty well.

Oh - and one more.... when Orbital (Rockets) crashed on their launch out of Virginia - I bought a handful. Like they say - when there is blood on the street, buy property !!!!

How did the sausage investment work out for you?

[Abe Froman]

How did the sausage investment work out for you?

Not bad. I was casing it for a while, but the job got too tough, especially since the boss' kid was a brat. You never sausage a bad place to work. Those situations are the wurst.
Frankly, I figured  if I could FIRE, I would be a weiner !!!!

[talltexan]

payday today includes our annual bonus. Wish the market was lower so I could go, ahem, shopping.

[MightyAl]

Great thread Sol - thank you.
My own story involves three - 2 of which I have already read here.
1st was way back in 2009 - when there was a "semi-flash crash" of banks and Bank of America shot down to $3-ish dollars. Knowing they were "too big to fail" I threw $1000 at it. Still have it sitting there. The other was 2000 shares of Sirius (SIRI) when it went down to around $0.30. Lastly - when Oil and Energy was tanking bought a pile of VDE.  Still sitting on all of them - so these are really unrealized gains.

I do this only with my play money - and what I feel I can honestly lose.

But this sort of investing advice comes straight from out classic movie - CaddyShack - when Rodney Dangerfield takes a call on the course and states "... everyone is buying? SELL !!!! Everyone is selling? BUY !!!!"

Seems to work pretty well.

Oh - and one more.... when Orbital (Rockets) crashed on their launch out of Virginia - I bought a handful. Like they say - when there is blood on the street, buy property !!!!

It was funny because I was just going to write about 2009 and banks when I skimmed through and caught your fortunate timing.  I was a bit more aggressive.  I bought $30k in BAC when it dipped under $3 and rode it up to $12.  That was my biggest and best timing bet and I was a nervous wreck the whole time.  Never again.

[Mr. Paws]

I bought 1,000 shares of WMB when it dipped to around $13 sometime in 2009 I believe.  The price spiked about a year and half ago iirc.  Its when ETE was bidding on them and i sold half my shares at around $65. I probably should have sold them all...

[tiberius]

Trying to time the market is a rookie investor mistake, but sometimes it happens by accident.  Please share your most fortuitous timing wins.

Tis on my mind because I was buying a little vde on the side during the oil crash.  My best purchase was an intraday low on Jan 25 for $68.76, which today is up to $97.19.  I made a 42% return in only 4.5 months!  I'm rich!  Let's see, that works out to... $28.43 in profit on my 1 share purchased that day.  Well shit.

Anybody else?

I disagree that timing the market is a mistake.
The market regularly overreacts to news and a stocks value 'in theory' will drop 20-30% in a day.

If and when that happens - if the market is wrong, its a great idea to buy that stock.

Two occasions that worked well for me is
a) Volkswagen stock dropped like a rock when the emissions scandal hit then recovered most of the
drop in the next few weeks
b) When the Brexit referendum voted 'leave' UK housebuilders lost 35-40% of the value in the first
hour of trading. They then recovered most of that in the next four weeks.

So if its a good company having temporary bad news, jump on it...

[Metric Mouse]

payday today includes our annual bonus. Wish the market was lower so I could go, ahem, shopping.

It might be as low as it ever gets again!

[Tyson]

Finding MMM 2 years ago and throwing all my savings into Vanguard Index.  It's been pretty much bull market since then.  Does that count?