To profit from that specific forecast coming true, you would need to do something like short USO now, and then go long USO after oil hits bottom during the forecasted recession, and do both at the right times. The number of things which would have to go right to win make this a complex forecast.
The more complex a thing is, the more likely it is to break. If I forecast rain for next Saturday, I am more likely to be correct than if I predict sunshine for Friday, rain for Saturday, and sunshine for Sunday. In the case of the former prediction, I have to get one thing right. In the later prediction, I have to get three things right. So if you are going to speculate (with a tiny part of your portfolio) on a forecast, you can boost your odds by making it a simple forecast. For example: USO will be lower by December.
Now you have to decide how to bet on oil being lower by December. Buying a put option on USO is expensive. You'll pay about 13% of the underlying stock price for a put at the $75 strike. That's a significant hole to have to dig out of. Oil would have to fall that far just for your investment to have a non-negative return, but in return you get a lot of potential upside if oil really crashes.
A bear put spread, on the other hand, would have a limited upside but less of a hole to dig out of. If you buy a December USO put at the $73 strike and sell a put at the $72 strike, you will pay about $0.50 per share. Your position will probably have a -100% or +100% return by December, with a slight chance of a return somewhere in between if the price ends up between the strikes. Given the choice, I'd do a bear spread rather than a long put because the prices of at-the-money spreads are not strongly affected by recent volatility in the way put prices are. If you don't like the all-or-nothing aspect of spreads, you could do a series of them at various prices and create a sort of laddered payout function.
If you really wanted to stick with your complex forecast, which I'll paraphrase as "oil lower than today in 3 months + oil higher than today in 12 months", you could also do a sort of calendar spread where you buy a put expiring in 3 months and sell a put expiring in 12 months. If things worked out perfectly, the shorter-duration put would expire while in the money, and then you would keep shorting the longer-duration put* as stocks go back down. That said, the flipside is also a possibility: Oil could go up, causing your short-duration put to expire worthless and then it would go down causing your long-duration put to become a growing liability! This position would also have you losing more money to the time decay of your short-duration option than you gain from the time decay of your long-duration option. Too much complexity for me!
*note that in this scenario your short put might have appreciated a lot, causing serious paper losses, and you would regret selling it in July instead of waiting until three months later when, as your own prediction said, USO was going to go down.
