You're telling me Shiller and Pfau day trade? I'll take that bet.
Long term market trends are different than what you are touting here. I highly doubt Shiller concerns himself with head and shoulders, knees and toes signals, or support and resistance points, etc.
Oh I'm completely on board with the trading diary - I'm pretty sure I was one of the one's making the suggestion. I was just trying to point out that Shiller and Pfau's work (I've read a few works from each and think there is a lot to what they've found) argue for long-term timing while most of the trading you've posted here is short-term timing. Two very different things - in my opinion.
No disagreement here.
If you agree what they do is different than what you are claiming works, why bring them up as examples of what you do working?
That's disingenuous, at best.
I would add that in order to cope with the shorter term volatility of swing trading, sound money management principles are required to make sure one is around to profit from tomorrow's opportunities. It's what separates the speculator from the gambler, IMO.
I've heard plenty of gamblers say the same thing, how what they are doing suddenly isn't gambling due to their money management.
You're still gambling on short term randomness, just using money management to make your bankroll (portfolio) last longer.
There is no proof that it is a successful strategy. There is no reason to believe it is +EV, so all you are doing is losing your money slower than if you were risking a larger percentage of your portfolio.
Once again, I say: "I think the difference is that we see that of all of the people that "understand" market timing (TA, psychological forces, etc.), there hasn't been any evidence that this understanding has helped them beat the market at all, and indeed, a mountain of evidence to the contrary."
Your response was that there's a widespread belief on Wall Street that it works, and I won't argue that. It doesn't suddenly make it work though, just because people believe it.
And your two cited things, long term trends versus short term trading, are two very different things. I'm betting you Shiller and Pfau's timeframe on most trades isn't measured in minutes, or hours, days, or even weeks, but years.