1)
No. 100% of forecasts are wild guesses right now. In the US, there are still over 30,000 new infections most days, and those are just the half of people with symptoms and who decide to get tested. The cumulative infections chart retains an unbroken upward trend, and the daily increase in cumulative infections is a mixed bag, but around 30k/day.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.htmlIf actual infections (tested + untested) are closer to 60k per day, how good is that really? What does that look like for the economy in 30 days?
2)
Economic activity has a multiplier effect. When more people have jobs, they spend more money, which creates the need for more jobs and business investment, which in turn create more spending. Likewise, when unemployment suddenly goes up, consumer spending and business investment spending drops, which creates the need for more layoffs, which in turn reduces spending. This is why the economy is cyclical.
It is also why we can't say something like "aggregate payrolls dropped 20% so aggregate corporate revenues are expected to drop 20%". Actually, corporate revenues would drop more than that because people would become wary of financing fancy cars and houses, eating at restaurants every night, remodeling the bathroom, and buying marginally useful shite off of Amazon. Plus, financial institutions would cut off credit to many people who miss payments due to unemployment or bankruptcy. In a recession, businesses often have to cut prices to attract customers in an attempt to outlive their competitors, who are also losing money. Meanwhile, lower interest rates may have the effect of encouraging money hoarding and frugality among retirees.