BRK is waiting to drop 10-20% when Buffet or Munger dies. But at a low enough cost, I might take a bite. It is intriguing how the market seems to be ignoring so much cash on their balance sheet, perhaps assuming they will maintain it earning almost no interest instead of buying something low.
I’m salivating over healthcare REITs, which have collapsed. Look at the p/ffo for OHI, SBRA, and VTR! If you think old people will still go to nursing homes in the future, these offer great returns. Even if the new normal is a decade of economic stagnation, any return to normalcy would make these stocks the place to be. Plus, if you think this recession has doomed Trump, then that mitigates one of the key risk factors - Medicare/Medicaid cuts - that had depressed these stocks before the crisis.
Yet, I suspect the real bargains will come in a few months when a pile of corporate bonds gets downgraded to junk and the tide really goes out. Restaurants, tourism, hospitality, fossil fuel, and airline bonds will be the first to downgrade and default, but not the last. There will be a scandal about how bonds were rated in the first place.
Patience is hard, but I figure if I can lock in 8-10% returns (via interest, p/ffo, or CAPE), I can retire on a 4-5% WR even with my pessimistic long term economic forecast. What’s really hard is realizing I could almost hit my FIRE number by selling puts that would buy some of these assets at prices that would provide the yield I need. FIRE is almost within reach, regardless of what Mr. Market says.