Author Topic: Dumpster Diving anyone?  (Read 2282 times)

ice_beard

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Dumpster Diving anyone?
« on: March 11, 2020, 02:47:43 PM »
Given this is an investors board, I thought I'd see if anyone is taking advantage of some of the more distressed sectors of economy right now.  VTSAX has dipped below $70 a few times but hasn't even come close to its 12/2018 low of $62.  So I've gone bottom fishing.  And it's kinda fun.

I have been eyeing oil/gas stocks regularly and might have even bought a couple.  I know this could go badly, there will be an upcoming race to the bottom between the US, Saudi Arabia and Russia.  I'm doubtful (hopeful??) big names like BP, Chevron, Exxon will be going anywhere any time soon even with the rise of electric cars.

Any other fields you are looking at?  Airlines, cruise lines, hospitality, banks, etc.   

Bernard

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Re: Dumpster Diving anyone?
« Reply #1 on: March 11, 2020, 03:45:24 PM »
We had an 11-year bull run, so the losses we experienced the past few weeks are small compared to the gains we bagged. Everything will go up again eventually, but I'm looking at AAPL, BYND, and TSLA specifically. I may even add more BRK.B to the mix.

theolympians

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Re: Dumpster Diving anyone?
« Reply #2 on: March 11, 2020, 04:20:09 PM »
I'm already maxed out or I would.

jim555

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Re: Dumpster Diving anyone?
« Reply #3 on: March 11, 2020, 04:27:51 PM »
So many companies will be bankrupted by this, I'm looking for good shorts.

ice_beard

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Re: Dumpster Diving anyone?
« Reply #4 on: March 11, 2020, 04:30:12 PM »
but I'm looking at AAPL, BYND, and TSLA specifically. I may even add more BRK.B to the mix.

wow, you're trolling around in the back of the "high end" outlet mall....  I was thinking more along the lines of CNL, OXY (no, not really), XOM, COP, LUV...

Davnasty

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Re: Dumpster Diving anyone?
« Reply #5 on: March 11, 2020, 08:04:14 PM »
PLAY - Dave & Buster's

Why would the Corona virus hit them so hard?

jim555

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Re: Dumpster Diving anyone?
« Reply #6 on: March 11, 2020, 10:03:51 PM »
PLAY - Dave & Buster's

Why would the Corona virus hit them so hard?
No one is going out in public to eat.  I went by a Starbucks today and the place was a ghost town.

Dibbels81

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Re: Dumpster Diving anyone?
« Reply #7 on: March 12, 2020, 06:01:43 AM »
Looks like another big drop today. I'm looking at the Vanguard Energy Fund, which is half the value of what it was a year ago, now with an 8% dividend. I really wish my unknown great uncle would pass away and leave me 500k, because the vast majority of my $ except for about 5k is invested in Vanguard. I could explore margin investing, but that's gonna be really risky. Still might look into it, though. I also could do a 40k loan on Sofi for 9% APR, also obviously risk as well.

Davnasty

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Re: Dumpster Diving anyone?
« Reply #8 on: March 12, 2020, 06:22:43 AM »
PLAY - Dave & Buster's

Why would the Corona virus hit them so hard?
No one is going out in public to eat.  I went by a Starbucks today and the place was a ghost town.

I'd assume that's the primary driver, especially a business that relies on group events like birthday parties and where everyone puts their hands all over the games. But still, down 60% in 20 days? Perhaps there's fear that they'll go bankrupt before things go back to normal?

MaaS

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Re: Dumpster Diving anyone?
« Reply #9 on: March 12, 2020, 07:07:52 AM »
We had an 11-year bull run, so the losses we experienced the past few weeks are small compared to the gains we bagged. Everything will go up again eventually, but I'm looking at AAPL, BYND, and TSLA specifically. I may even add more BRK.B to the mix.

If things continue to plummet, BRK.B is really interesting. That $128 billion in cash could lead to some absolute steals unavailable to us normal investors. They are basically an opportunistic investment bank when credit markets tighten.

Otherwise: Disney, Delta, Roku, listed in order of confidence.

bwall

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Re: Dumpster Diving anyone?
« Reply #10 on: March 12, 2020, 08:28:14 AM »
If things continue to plummet, BRK.B is really interesting. That $128 billion in cash could lead to some absolute steals unavailable to us normal investors. They are basically an opportunistic investment bank when credit markets tighten.

Great observation.

How often does one have the chance to participate in investing genius? Think about it, BRK is like a hedge fund, but better. It's open to anyone and everyone and you can exit at any time--no lock up period, etc.

I think the bear is just getting started, the DOW will drop below 20k and stay there for awhile. So, we'll all have plenty of time to pick up the deals we've been looking at for awhile.

MaaS

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Re: Dumpster Diving anyone?
« Reply #11 on: March 12, 2020, 08:51:44 AM »
If things continue to plummet, BRK.B is really interesting. That $128 billion in cash could lead to some absolute steals unavailable to us normal investors. They are basically an opportunistic investment bank when credit markets tighten.

Great observation.

How often does one have the chance to participate in investing genius? Think about it, BRK is like a hedge fund, but better. It's open to anyone and everyone and you can exit at any time--no lock up period, etc.

I think the bear is just getting started, the DOW will drop below 20k and stay there for awhile. So, we'll all have plenty of time to pick up the deals we've been looking at for awhile.

Agree, Berkshire is a really misunderstood company.

If you take today's market cap and subtract today's value of their equity portfolio you get $264 billion. Last year, Berkshire made about $23 billion from its wholly-owned companies, which are relatively recession-resistant. This values their core business at about 11 times earnings.

Then, you consider the potential of that cash in a bear market...

Fru-Gal

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Re: Dumpster Diving anyone?
« Reply #12 on: March 12, 2020, 09:02:36 AM »
BRK.B at $182!  I sold some at $229. My avg price per share is $201.

ChpBstrd

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Re: Dumpster Diving anyone?
« Reply #13 on: March 12, 2020, 09:29:35 AM »
BRK is waiting to drop 10-20% when Buffet or Munger dies. But at a low enough cost, I might take a bite. It is intriguing how the market seems to be ignoring so much cash on their balance sheet, perhaps assuming they will maintain it earning almost no interest instead of buying something low.

Iím salivating over healthcare REITs, which have collapsed. Look at the p/ffo for OHI, SBRA, and VTR! If you think old people will still go to nursing homes in the future, these offer great returns. Even if the new normal is a decade of economic stagnation, any return to normalcy would make these stocks the place to be. Plus, if you think this recession has doomed Trump, then that mitigates one of the key risk factors - Medicare/Medicaid cuts - that had depressed these stocks before the crisis.

Yet, I suspect the real bargains will come in a few months when a pile of corporate bonds gets downgraded to junk and the tide really goes out. Restaurants, tourism, hospitality, fossil fuel, and airline bonds will be the first to downgrade and default, but not the last. There will be a scandal about how bonds were rated in the first place.

Patience is hard, but I figure if I can lock in 8-10% returns (via interest, p/ffo, or CAPE), I can retire on a 4-5% WR even with my pessimistic long term economic forecast. Whatís really hard is realizing I could almost hit my FIRE number by selling puts that would buy some of these assets at prices that would provide the yield I need. FIRE is almost within reach, regardless of what Mr. Market says.

MaaS

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Re: Dumpster Diving anyone?
« Reply #14 on: March 12, 2020, 09:49:49 AM »
BRK is waiting to drop 10-20% when Buffet or Munger dies. But at a low enough cost, I might take a bite. It is intriguing how the market seems to be ignoring so much cash on their balance sheet, perhaps assuming they will maintain it earning almost no interest instead of buying something low.

That one could go either way. I could see investors bidding it up over speculation on more aggressive buybacks, a greater willingness to invest in tech, and even a partial breakup.

Who knows.

Missy B

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Re: Dumpster Diving anyone?
« Reply #15 on: March 12, 2020, 10:06:56 AM »
Not yet.

theoverlook

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Re: Dumpster Diving anyone?
« Reply #16 on: March 12, 2020, 11:44:49 AM »
I sold my Shell stock at the right time, intending to go 100% indexing, but that crazy dividend yield (13%!) has me salivating right now.

Fru-Gal

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Re: Dumpster Diving anyone?
« Reply #17 on: March 12, 2020, 01:03:18 PM »
I'm interested in solar.

I had bought Enphase Energy at ~$5, sold ~$20, it skyrocketed to $50s, now down to $34.

Other solar buys include Vivint. I also one 1 share of Guggenheim Solar ETF.

As you can see I only bet with pocket change.

With some of the solar companies, I am not sure I like their business model (leasing, etc). Enphase has the critical equipment.

Thoughts?

magnet18

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Re: Dumpster Diving anyone?
« Reply #18 on: March 12, 2020, 01:27:06 PM »
Haven't purchased anything yet
Eyeing the following in alphabetical order, no level of seriousness should be inferred, just eyeing

3m
Amex
Boeing
Brkb
Carnival
Disney
Delta
Norwegian
Royal Caribbean


Wordstew

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Re: Dumpster Diving anyone?
« Reply #19 on: March 12, 2020, 01:43:48 PM »

Yet, I suspect the real bargains will come in a few months when a pile of corporate bonds gets downgraded to junk and the tide really goes out. Restaurants, tourism, hospitality, fossil fuel, and airline bonds will be the first to downgrade and default, but not the last. There will be a scandal about how bonds were rated in the first place.


What is your strategy to capitalize on bonds????   I've read pretty much the same on your bond sentiment.

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: Dumpster Diving anyone?
« Reply #20 on: March 12, 2020, 01:47:06 PM »
Looks like another big drop today. I'm looking at the Vanguard Energy Fund, which is half the value of what it was a year ago, now with an 8% dividend. I really wish my unknown great uncle would pass away and leave me 500k, because the vast majority of my $ except for about 5k is invested in Vanguard. I could explore margin investing, but that's gonna be really risky. Still might look into it, though. I also could do a 40k loan on Sofi for 9% APR, also obviously risk as well.

I saw that as well.  Lookin' tasty.  But there are other morsels out there.

ChpBstrd

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Re: Dumpster Diving anyone?
« Reply #21 on: March 12, 2020, 03:36:31 PM »

Yet, I suspect the real bargains will come in a few months when a pile of corporate bonds gets downgraded to junk and the tide really goes out. Restaurants, tourism, hospitality, fossil fuel, and airline bonds will be the first to downgrade and default, but not the last. There will be a scandal about how bonds were rated in the first place.


What is your strategy to capitalize on bonds????   I've read pretty much the same on your bond sentiment.

Well, the fact that barely-IG bonds havenít dropped yet means the real crisis could be yet to come. The house fire is raging, but the barrel of gunpowder has yet to ignite. Thatís a reason to avoid both stocks and bonds for now.

Because Iím hedged and my accounts are dropping at only half the rate of the market, I am tempted to watch for an opportunity to retire on an otherwise unsustainable WR. Buying a portfolio of solid yet B rated bonds at 10%+ yields might be the once-in-a-lifetime opening to secure such an outcome.

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: Dumpster Diving anyone?
« Reply #22 on: March 12, 2020, 03:48:37 PM »
BRK is waiting to drop 10-20% when Buffet or Munger dies. But at a low enough cost, I might take a bite. It is intriguing how the market seems to be ignoring so much cash on their balance sheet, perhaps assuming they will maintain it earning almost no interest instead of buying something low.

Iím salivating over healthcare REITs, which have collapsed. Look at the p/ffo for OHI, SBRA, and VTR! If you think old people will still go to nursing homes in the future, these offer great returns. Even if the new normal is a decade of economic stagnation, any return to normalcy would make these stocks the place to be. Plus, if you think this recession has doomed Trump, then that mitigates one of the key risk factors - Medicare/Medicaid cuts - that had depressed these stocks before the crisis.

Yet, I suspect the real bargains will come in a few months when a pile of corporate bonds gets downgraded to junk and the tide really goes out. Restaurants, tourism, hospitality, fossil fuel, and airline bonds will be the first to downgrade and default, but not the last. There will be a scandal about how bonds were rated in the first place.

Patience is hard, but I figure if I can lock in 8-10% returns (via interest, p/ffo, or CAPE), I can retire on a 4-5% WR even with my pessimistic long term economic forecast. Whatís really hard is realizing I could almost hit my FIRE number by selling puts that would buy some of these assets at prices that would provide the yield I need. FIRE is almost within reach, regardless of what Mr. Market says.

Patience is really tough right now. Iím looking at prices of equities and just salivating. Like a starving dog let loose in a butcher shop.  The E part of PE is about to take a hit, I realize.

With the deals weíre gonna see, why dumpster dive? Buy the best on deep discount.

MishMash

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Re: Dumpster Diving anyone?
« Reply #23 on: March 12, 2020, 04:08:59 PM »
yea as of today I have moved all available cash into vanguard and Schwab just to take advantage of the discounts to come.

bwall

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Re: Dumpster Diving anyone?
« Reply #24 on: March 12, 2020, 04:18:27 PM »
I'm interested in solar.

I had bought Enphase Energy at ~$5, sold ~$20, it skyrocketed to $50s, now down to $34.

Other solar buys include Vivint. I also one 1 share of Guggenheim Solar ETF.

As you can see I only bet with pocket change.

With some of the solar companies, I am not sure I like their business model (leasing, etc). Enphase has the critical equipment.

Thoughts?

The gains in solar are already over. Just slim pickings now.

Look for a sector where Moore's Law is still in effect.

bwall

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Re: Dumpster Diving anyone?
« Reply #25 on: March 12, 2020, 04:20:59 PM »
Haven't purchased anything yet
Eyeing the following in alphabetical order, no level of seriousness should be inferred, just eyeing

3m
Amex
Boeing
Brkb
Carnival
Disney
Delta
Norwegian
Royal Caribbean

Travel and Leisure stocks are getting hammered, mainly because they're going to have to idle ships/airplanes for a few months and then discount fares for a few months longer. This will be very costly.
I don't see any quick rebounds in that space. But, if you insist on buying, then wait until next week, they'll be cheaper than today.

Cache_Stash

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Re: Dumpster Diving anyone?
« Reply #26 on: March 12, 2020, 04:27:08 PM »
We had an 11-year bull run, so the losses we experienced the past few weeks are small compared to the gains we bagged. Everything will go up again eventually, but I'm looking at AAPL, BYND, and TSLA specifically. I may even add more BRK.B to the mix.

High quality, solid balance sheet, high cash flow companies are what should be purchased. Such as AApl.

BYND and TSLA are HORRIBLE ideas but they certainly are a dumpster dive.  They aren't setup for success and a serious recession could bring them to bankruptcy.  I would rather dumpster dive into the oil companies (taking only those with solid balance sheets).

Bernard

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Re: Dumpster Diving anyone?
« Reply #27 on: March 12, 2020, 06:07:13 PM »
We had an 11-year bull run, so the losses we experienced the past few weeks are small compared to the gains we bagged. Everything will go up again eventually, but I'm looking at AAPL, BYND, and TSLA specifically. I may even add more BRK.B to the mix.

High quality, solid balance sheet, high cash flow companies are what should be purchased. Such as AApl.

BYND and TSLA are HORRIBLE ideas but they certainly are a dumpster dive.  They aren't setup for success and a serious recession could bring them to bankruptcy.  I would rather dumpster dive into the oil companies (taking only those with solid balance sheets).

I don't disagree with you. I don't own Apple, but I own a truck load of Berkshire, started buying them when they were at $46 a pop. I sold some a few months back at $220, but at $160 or so it gets interesting again.

Wouldn't you say that even Warren is dumpster diving by buying close to a million shares of Delta on sale? Delta lost another 21% just today, so there's a lot of upside once air travel is going back to normal and the tide is coming in . . .

ice_beard

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Re: Dumpster Diving anyone?
« Reply #28 on: March 12, 2020, 10:17:14 PM »
Next question....

Which segments are going to get bailed out?  My top guess is oil/gas.  The current admin can't let all those good 'ol boys in Texas lose their Ford Raptors and everything else associated with OG.  They'll do something that will make $40 Permian Basin oil "profitable" at $28. 
 
Airlines and hospitality also have their hats out and will probably get something. 

VTSAX at $60.69.  I almost didn't buy any today.  Can't imagine even thinking that on a drop of 10% I wouldn't want to buy, but this market is scary at best right now.  I keep wondering how low things will go. 
I woke up this morning and looked at the futures numbers and quickly changed a purchase prices to what I figured was a ridiculous price.  It was met at 11 am pacific time. 

bwall

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Re: Dumpster Diving anyone?
« Reply #29 on: March 13, 2020, 07:31:36 AM »
Which segments are going to get bailed out?  My top guess is oil/gas.  The current admin can't let all those good 'ol boys in Texas lose their Ford Raptors and everything else associated with OG.  They'll do something that will make $40 Permian Basin oil "profitable" at $28. 

You might be surprised. Trump isn't an oil guy. He lived all his live in NYC. He loves them at the rallies, but that's where it stops.

Permian Basin producers sell their future production via the options/futures market. They know that they are in a risky business and use that to mitigate risk. The ones that know what they're doing will be just fine, the others, well, that's life.

Wordstew

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Re: Dumpster Diving anyone?
« Reply #30 on: March 13, 2020, 09:47:10 AM »

Yet, I suspect the real bargains will come in a few months when a pile of corporate bonds gets downgraded to junk and the tide really goes out. Restaurants, tourism, hospitality, fossil fuel, and airline bonds will be the first to downgrade and default, but not the last. There will be a scandal about how bonds were rated in the first place.


What is your strategy to capitalize on bonds????   I've read pretty much the same on your bond sentiment.

Well, the fact that barely-IG bonds havenít dropped yet means the real crisis could be yet to come. The house fire is raging, but the barrel of gunpowder has yet to ignite. Thatís a reason to avoid both stocks and bonds for now.

Because Iím hedged and my accounts are dropping at only half the rate of the market, I am tempted to watch for an opportunity to retire on an otherwise unsustainable WR. Buying a portfolio of solid yet B rated bonds at 10%+ yields might be the once-in-a-lifetime opening to secure such an outcome.

Ya but the big question is how they rate the bonds.  I suspect they are holding the prices up artificially and the bottom will really fall out when the time comes...

NWOutlier

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Re: Dumpster Diving anyone?
« Reply #31 on: March 13, 2020, 09:59:02 AM »
Given this is an investors board, I thought I'd see if anyone is taking advantage of some of the more distressed sectors of economy right now.  VTSAX has dipped below $70 a few times but hasn't even come close to its 12/2018 low of $62.  So I've gone bottom fishing.  And it's kinda fun.

I have been eyeing oil/gas stocks regularly and might have even bought a couple.  I know this could go badly, there will be an upcoming race to the bottom between the US, Saudi Arabia and Russia.  I'm doubtful (hopeful??) big names like BP, Chevron, Exxon will be going anywhere any time soon even with the rise of electric cars.

Any other fields you are looking at?  Airlines, cruise lines, hospitality, banks, etc.   

I added 20k more to my VTSAX @60.69 and FSKAX @68.92 on 3/12.. I think we can drop more, but I haven't lost money at all, I've been investing since $43 bucks 2013.. wish I was sooner :)... but I will continue to buy all the way down since, just by pure luck, a legal issue we had settled... I have more to spend on total market... and I will keep spending all the way down.  it's like winding up a spring ---- someday that spring will SNAP! and go back up....

wooo hooo!

NWOutlier (Steve)

magnet18

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Re: Dumpster Diving anyone?
« Reply #32 on: March 13, 2020, 09:06:51 PM »
Haven't purchased anything yet
Eyeing the following in alphabetical order, no level of seriousness should be inferred, just eyeing

3m
Amex
Boeing
Brkb
Carnival
Disney
Delta
Norwegian
Royal Caribbean

Travel and Leisure stocks are getting hammered, mainly because they're going to have to idle ships/airplanes for a few months and then discount fares for a few months longer. This will be very costly.
I don't see any quick rebounds in that space. But, if you insist on buying, then wait until next week, they'll be cheaper than today.

Boeing, oil, and other travel stocks for at least a couple years.

Brk.b because they have billions in dry powder and they're smarter than me

3m, roche, and other healthcare supplies providers because they just took the same hit as everyone else, when they're really about to see profits increase rather than decrease.  Worst case 3m is a very solid company.  Roche may be a bad buy as they're only down half as much as the rest of the market, they had a hellofa rally today.

Put a couple thousand in the indexes this week.
Putting a couple more thousand in fun stuff next week, hopefully this was a dead cat bounce.

ice_beard

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Re: Dumpster Diving anyone?
« Reply #33 on: March 18, 2020, 09:08:32 AM »
Ford at sub $4.50
They have a ridiculous dividend yield of close to 12%.
They are carrying 8 years worth of debt, but they have that plus more cash on hand.   
Might pull the trigger on this today.   

Joe Schmo

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Re: Dumpster Diving anyone?
« Reply #34 on: March 18, 2020, 09:37:44 AM »
We do remember that weíll likely have a sweeping change in dividend payments upcoming so the yields were seeing are rubbish for the most part.

ChpBstrd

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Re: Dumpster Diving anyone?
« Reply #35 on: March 18, 2020, 12:45:07 PM »
I might do some more analysis on utilities such as:

CNP
SO
PPL

Also looking at eBay Baa1 bonds yielding 6%.

Fru-Gal

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Re: Dumpster Diving anyone?
« Reply #36 on: March 18, 2020, 03:17:26 PM »
Should I try to time the market with my 401(k) deposits? I can't control them, but it occurred to me that perhaps I could have them go into a money market and then manually purchase the index (indices) I'm investing in.

Obviously have been buying all the way down so far.

I had this insight because I realize that I did not make a purchase of VTSAX with my husband's recent (small) IRA roll over yet. It's just sitting in the money market so hasn't lost any value!

ice_beard

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Re: Dumpster Diving anyone?
« Reply #37 on: March 18, 2020, 07:18:59 PM »
Should I try to time the market with my 401(k) deposits? I can't control them, but it occurred to me that perhaps I could have them go into a money market and then manually purchase the index (indices) I'm investing in.

That sounds like a question for a more serious thread.  This here is the dumpster diving thread!! 

But.... In order to keep my mustachian cred, I don't muss with my 403b contributions much.  $750 every two weeks automatically with very rare adjustments to the contents of those buys.  I thought about bumping up the contribution for a few months, but deep down I know I don't actually know what the market will be doing in October, it could be down even more. 

Now back to the dumpster fires!!!

F closed at 4.50
MGM was down to 6.50
CCL is down to 9.30

I picked up some highly depressed STWD at $8 today.

Just about all oil firms are trading at a deep discount.  How low will a barrel go?

Airlines are approaching dumpster status. 

S&P dropped over 5% and I was not compelled to buy any index funds.  End of the day rally killed it for me.  Strange times. 

Joe Schmo

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Re: Dumpster Diving anyone?
« Reply #38 on: March 18, 2020, 09:58:23 PM »
Be dammed if I didnít get me some F on some low ass priced orders. Also some FITB...for no good reason whatsoever.