That all depends on the recovery though too. Will Dual Momentum be able to jump in before the market recovers back? Or will there be a shock month in the near future where you'll miss out on the initial +8-12% recovery?
I remember following Dual Momentum around 2015-2016. Lost money basically all year on the whipsaws that happened around then. I didn't have enough money to bother splitting my investment strats, so I just went back to a simple static portfolio. I think there's a bit of historical bias that he's fallen pray to. Momentum investing absolutely makes sense, but predicting the correct trailing lookback periods is what is difficult / impossible to do. He found some that work well that gave great results in the 80's and 90's, but don't seem to be working now.
And my prediction so far has been correct. Dual Momentum since 2015 has underperformed the benchmark that he compares against by about -10% overall through the end of 2021 (which was a great year for his strat). Considering the book came out in 2014, it is a little sketchy to see his strategy start underperforming the very next year.
According to his website it looks like he left stocks in May so after the April -9% drop. Since May he's done about -2%. The S&P since May is sitting around -3 to -5% depending on where you put your numbers. So at least so far, it doesn't look like it's drastically outperforming.
So either you got lucky on what day of the month you chose to use or on your lookback period. But his website doesn't look that great on performance for 2022.
