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Learning, Sharing, and Teaching => Investor Alley => Topic started by: Retire-Canada on December 19, 2016, 05:51:12 PM

Title: Dow 20,000+
Post by: Retire-Canada on December 19, 2016, 05:51:12 PM
(https://c2.staticflickr.com/1/552/30944052913_4f0b7749ef_b.jpg)

After all the gloom and doom thread on this forum this year [ie. Red Dow] it's nice to close the year on a high. Anyone got a guess for when the Dow will break 20K?
Title: Re: Dow 20,000+
Post by: Cheddar Stacker on December 19, 2016, 06:05:05 PM
Tomorrow. Apparently the electoral college had enough votes for Cheetoh today. That should be enough to push it over the edge. However, I think it's reactionary, and the bubble will pop shortly. I'd bet $100 we'll see > $20K, and < $16K in 2017. And I'll keep dollar cost averaging all the way.
Title: Re: Dow 20,000+
Post by: HPstache on December 19, 2016, 06:56:54 PM
Agreed... We will see it tomorrow
Title: Re: Dow 20,000+
Post by: Heckler on December 19, 2016, 10:03:30 PM
well, my portfolio just flipped over it's first digit, so I'm pretty happy! 
Title: Re: Dow 20,000+
Post by: mxt0133 on December 19, 2016, 10:36:02 PM
Tomorrow. Apparently the electoral college had enough votes for Cheetoh today. That should be enough to push it over the edge. However, I think it's reactionary, and the bubble will pop shortly. I'd bet $100 we'll see > $20K, and < $16K in 2017. And I'll keep dollar cost averaging all the way.

I'll take you up on the $100 bet that we'll see the Dow below 16k some time between Jan 1 2017 and Dec 31 2017.  It doesn't have to close below it just has to break 16k intraday.  After hours trading is excluded.  Gentlemen's agreement, we can settle via Paypal at the market close on December 31, 2017.
Title: Re: Dow 20,000+
Post by: HPstache on December 20, 2016, 04:13:01 PM
Missed by 25 points... maybe tomorrow.
Title: Re: Dow 20,000+
Post by: Jeremy E. on December 20, 2016, 04:20:16 PM
In before trump takes credit for the stock market rise
Title: Re: Dow 20,000+
Post by: HPstache on December 20, 2016, 04:22:31 PM
In before trump takes credit for the stock market rise

You don't think it is?
Title: Re: Dow 20,000+
Post by: gimp on December 20, 2016, 04:29:29 PM
Tomorrow. Apparently the electoral college had enough votes for Cheetoh today. That should be enough to push it over the edge. However, I think it's reactionary, and the bubble will pop shortly. I'd bet $100 we'll see > $20K, and < $16K in 2017. And I'll keep dollar cost averaging all the way.

I'll take you up on the $100 bet that we'll see the Dow below 16k some time between Jan 1 2017 and Dec 31 2017.  It doesn't have to close below it just has to break 16k intraday.  After hours trading is excluded.  Gentlemen's agreement, we can settle via Paypal at the market close on December 31, 2017.

I had a bet with a friend like this for 2016 - our bet was that it would dip below and stay below for at least a couple days. He lost.

I think you should amend your offer: a momentary flash crash doesn't count. If some algorithm goes haywire and everything is back to normal an hour later, it shouldn't count.
Title: Re: Dow 20,000+
Post by: Indexer on December 20, 2016, 04:41:51 PM
The Dow...

The Dow is based on the stock price of 30 arbitrarily picked companies.

For comparison, the SP500 is based on the market capitalization(the size of the company) of our 500 largest companies.

Using the Dow's price weighted logic Berkshire Hathaway would be considered over 2,000 times larger than Apple, when in fact Apple is about 1.5 times larger than Berkshire Hathaway. That means you would be overestimating the size of Berkshire Hathaway to be 3,000 times larger than it is... or underestimating the size of Apple by 3,000 times... or worse, some combination of the two.

The Dow uses this funky math because it was created in the late 1800s when it was hard to find useful data on 30 companies, yet alone thousands, and we didn't have computers so the math needed be simple. Result: something that points in the right general direction most of the time, but it is by no means an accurate gauge for measuring the US stock market. Analogy: The Dow is like a rusty compass that occasionally gets stuck pointing south, and the S&P 500 is like GPS.


Yes, celebrate the Dow hitting 20,000. While we are celebrating made up numbers hitting meaningless milestones I would like to celebrate Pikachu's birthday using the Mayan Calendar. Does anyone know what day that would be?
Title: Re: Dow 20,000+
Post by: Cheddar Stacker on December 20, 2016, 04:43:07 PM
Tomorrow. Apparently the electoral college had enough votes for Cheetoh today. That should be enough to push it over the edge. However, I think it's reactionary, and the bubble will pop shortly. I'd bet $100 we'll see > $20K, and < $16K in 2017. And I'll keep dollar cost averaging all the way.

I'll take you up on the $100 bet that we'll see the Dow below 16k some time between Jan 1 2017 and Dec 31 2017.  It doesn't have to close below it just has to break 16k intraday.  After hours trading is excluded.  Gentlemen's agreement, we can settle via Paypal at the market close on December 31, 2017.

I had a bet with a friend like this for 2016 - our bet was that it would dip below and stay below for at least a couple days. He lost.

I think you should amend your offer: a momentary flash crash doesn't count. If some algorithm goes haywire and everything is back to normal an hour later, it shouldn't count.

Gimp, did you have the over or under? I feel like I should get some odds here since it constitutes a 20% drop. I'll take the bet if the $100 goes to charity of winners choice. I choose M41's rohingya fund. Pick your charity and it's a bet.

Flash crash counts. I really feel strongly there will be some major nonsense that goes down this year that temporarily deflates overall value. The Twitter account can't be contained.
Title: Re: Dow 20,000+
Post by: Cheddar Stacker on December 20, 2016, 04:47:29 PM
M41:
http://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/journals/fair-verona-where-we-lay-our-scene/msg1191085/#msg1191085

In case you've never heard of it, take a look and consider a contribution guys/gals:

http://rohingyafund.org/

Title: Re: Dow 20,000+
Post by: Heckler on December 20, 2016, 04:49:40 PM
The Dow...

The Dow is based on the stock price of 30 arbitrarily picked companies.

For comparison, the SP500 is based on the market capitalization(the size of the company) of our 500 largest companies.

Using the Dow's price weighted logic Berkshire Hathaway would be considered over 2,000 times larger than Apple, when in fact Apple is about 1.5 times larger than Berkshire Hathaway. That means you would be overestimating the size of Berkshire Hathaway to be 3,000 times larger than it is... or underestimating the size of Apple by 3,000 times... or worse, some combination of the two.

The Dow uses this funky math because it was created in the late 1800s when it was hard to find useful data on 30 companies, yet alone thousands, and we didn't have computers so the math needed be simple. Result: something that points in the right general direction most of the time, but it is by no means an accurate gauge for measuring the US stock market. Analogy: The Dow is like a rusty compass that occasionally gets stuck pointing south, and the S&P 500 is like GPS.


Yes, celebrate the Dow hitting 20,000. While we are celebrating made up numbers hitting meaningless milestones I would like to celebrate Pikachu's birthday using the Mayan Calendar. Does anyone know what day that would be?

in googling this (because I have no idea what companies the DJIA is made up of), I get this first link! 

http://economyandmarkets.com/exclusives/critical-warning-from-rogue-economist-harry-dent-this-is-just-the-beginning-of-a-nightmare-scenario-as-dow-crashes-to-6000-2/?z=404918

Quote
"The Dow is set to embark on a catastrophic plunge…all the way down to 6,000.”

gasp!  So there are 30 random companies who will go bankrupt soon?

Funny stuff.
Title: Re: Dow 20,000+
Post by: gimp on December 20, 2016, 06:01:21 PM
I prefer to bet with a friend on mutually agreed terms - I like your bet, but I'll stick to mine, if that's cool.

Indexer, you're ... pretty pedantic. And not entirely right. And a debby downer for no good reason.
Title: Re: Dow 20,000+
Post by: Cheddar Stacker on December 20, 2016, 06:09:13 PM
I prefer to bet with a friend on mutually agreed terms - I like your bet, but I'll stick to mine, if that's cool.

Indexer, you're ... pretty pedantic. And not entirely right. And a debby downer for no good reason.

Didn't mean to confuse the issue. The question was for you gimp. The rest of that post was for mxt.
Title: Re: Dow 20,000+
Post by: Indexer on December 20, 2016, 06:40:30 PM
I prefer to bet with a friend on mutually agreed terms - I like your bet, but I'll stick to mine, if that's cool.

Indexer, you're ... pretty pedantic. And not entirely right. And a debby downer for no good reason.

How am I a debbie downer? I didn't say the market would go down. I just pointed out celebrating the Dow hitting 20,000 is on par with celebrating a fictional character's birthday! Let's do both! We can also celebrate the S&P 500 the next time it hits any new record, it doesn't have to be a nice even number. :D


PS. If you guys really want to bet on the market you could just use options.
Title: Re: Dow 20,000+
Post by: mxt0133 on December 21, 2016, 01:09:12 AM
M41:
http://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/journals/fair-verona-where-we-lay-our-scene/msg1191085/#msg1191085

In case you've never heard of it, take a look and consider a contribution guys/gals:

http://rohingyafund.org/

@Chedder Stacker

I've actually donated to that fund.  I pick Khan Academy.

I'll restate the terms again and if you are in agreement I will put a reminder on December 31, 2017 or you can PM when the DOW does breaks below 16,000.00 during normal trading days and hours between 9:30AM to 4PM EST.

Cheddar Stacker will donate $100 to Khan Academy Org if the DOW does not break below 16,000.00 between January 1, 2017 to December 31, 2017.  Chedder Stacker will donate the funds to the selected charity withing 7 business day of January 1, 2018.

MXT0133 will donate $100 to http://rohingyafund.org/ if the DOW breaks below 16,000.00 during normal trading days and hours between 9:30AM to 4PM EST.  Specifically if the DOW reaches 15,999.99 or lower.  It does not have to close below 16,000.00 it just has to break it during normals trading days and hours. MXT0133 can choose to donate the funds either on the day the DOW goes below 16,000.00 or any time before December 31, 2017.

Screen shots will be sufficient evidence of funds donated to the selected charities.
Title: Re: Dow 20,000+
Post by: Cheddar Stacker on December 21, 2016, 04:57:18 AM
@Chedder Stacker

I've actually donated to that fund.  I pick Khan Academy.

I'll restate the terms again and if you are in agreement I will put a reminder on December 31, 2017 or you can PM when the DOW does breaks below 16,000.00 during normal trading days and hours between 9:30AM to 4PM EST.

Cheddar Stacker will donate $100 to Khan Academy Org if the DOW does not break below 16,000.00 between January 1, 2017 to December 31, 2017.  Chedder Stacker will donate the funds to the selected charity withing 7 business day of January 1, 2018.

MXT0133 will donate $100 to http://rohingyafund.org/ if the DOW breaks below 16,000.00 during normal trading days and hours between 9:30AM to 4PM EST.  Specifically if the DOW reaches 15,999.99 or lower.  It does not have to close below 16,000.00 it just has to break it during normals trading days and hours. MXT0133 can choose to donate the funds either on the day the DOW goes below 16,000.00 or any time before December 31, 2017.

Screen shots will be sufficient evidence of funds donated to the selected charities.

Deal!
Title: Re: Dow 20,000+
Post by: matchewed on December 21, 2016, 05:28:45 AM
The Dow...

The Dow is based on the stock price of 30 arbitrarily picked companies.

For comparison, the SP500 is based on the market capitalization(the size of the company) of our 500 largest companies.

Using the Dow's price weighted logic Berkshire Hathaway would be considered over 2,000 times larger than Apple, when in fact Apple is about 1.5 times larger than Berkshire Hathaway. That means you would be overestimating the size of Berkshire Hathaway to be 3,000 times larger than it is... or underestimating the size of Apple by 3,000 times... or worse, some combination of the two.

The Dow uses this funky math because it was created in the late 1800s when it was hard to find useful data on 30 companies, yet alone thousands, and we didn't have computers so the math needed be simple. Result: something that points in the right general direction most of the time, but it is by no means an accurate gauge for measuring the US stock market. Analogy: The Dow is like a rusty compass that occasionally gets stuck pointing south, and the S&P 500 is like GPS.


Yes, celebrate the Dow hitting 20,000. While we are celebrating made up numbers hitting meaningless milestones I would like to celebrate Pikachu's birthday using the Mayan Calendar. Does anyone know what day that would be?

Tuesday
Title: Re: Dow 20,000+
Post by: frugledoc on December 21, 2016, 05:30:19 AM
Wake me up when it gets to 40000
Title: Re: Dow 20,000+
Post by: Retire-Canada on December 21, 2016, 07:11:05 AM
(https://i.cbc.ca/1.3905936.1482268111!/fileImage/httpImage/image.jpg_gen/derivatives/16x9_620/usa-stocks.jpg)
Title: Re: Dow 20,000+
Post by: talltexan on December 21, 2016, 07:19:11 AM
I agree with the point that SP500 is a better measure (I trained myself to watch that and largely ignore the Dow about four years ago).

However, their correlation is quite high...most of the Dow 30 have Betas that are between 0.6 and 1.4...so, despite all of its measurement problems, the Dow index still conveys information.
Title: Re: Dow 20,000+
Post by: Retire-Canada on December 21, 2016, 08:09:30 AM
How am I a debbie downer? I didn't say the market would go down. I just pointed out celebrating the Dow hitting 20,000 is on par with celebrating a fictional character's birthday!

Nobody needed that pointed out.

Having fun with stuff like this doesn't have to mean anything. Nobody is suggesting any change to investment strategies or any other action. Watching your portfolio tick over the next $100K is fun too, but that specific number is also not meaningful in any way other than it shows you're making progress towards your FIRE goal.

Every time I see 420 or 666 come up I have a laugh as well. Don't worry I know they don't really mean anything. ;)
Title: Re: Dow 20,000+
Post by: libertarian4321 on December 21, 2016, 01:06:52 PM


in googling this (because I have no idea what companies the DJIA is made up of), I get this first link! 

http://economyandmarkets.com/exclusives/critical-warning-from-rogue-economist-harry-dent-this-is-just-the-beginning-of-a-nightmare-scenario-as-dow-crashes-to-6000-2/?z=404918

Quote
"The Dow is set to embark on a catastrophic plunge…all the way down to 6,000.”

gasp!  So there are 30 random companies who will go bankrupt soon?

Funny stuff.

Harry Dent has accurately called 30 of the last 4 market crashes.

Like a broken clock that's "right" twice a day...
Title: Re: Dow 20,000+
Post by: Retire-Canada on December 22, 2016, 09:03:30 AM
Looks like 20K may have to wait until 2017. Trump's tariff talk isn't making anyone happy.
Title: Re: Dow 20,000+
Post by: JAYSLOL on December 23, 2016, 12:14:35 PM
The Dow...

The Dow is based on the stock price of 30 arbitrarily picked companies.

For comparison, the SP500 is based on the market capitalization(the size of the company) of our 500 largest companies.

Using the Dow's price weighted logic Berkshire Hathaway would be considered over 2,000 times larger than Apple, when in fact Apple is about 1.5 times larger than Berkshire Hathaway. That means you would be overestimating the size of Berkshire Hathaway to be 3,000 times larger than it is... or underestimating the size of Apple by 3,000 times... or worse, some combination of the two.

The Dow uses this funky math because it was created in the late 1800s when it was hard to find useful data on 30 companies, yet alone thousands, and we didn't have computers so the math needed be simple. Result: something that points in the right general direction most of the time, but it is by no means an accurate gauge for measuring the US stock market. Analogy: The Dow is like a rusty compass that occasionally gets stuck pointing south, and the S&P 500 is like GPS.


Yes, celebrate the Dow hitting 20,000. While we are celebrating made up numbers hitting meaningless milestones I would like to celebrate Pikachu's birthday using the Mayan Calendar. Does anyone know what day that would be?

I dunno, if Pikachu turned 20,000 years old according to the Mayan Calendar, I think thats worth throwing a party for.  :P
Title: Re: Dow 20,000+
Post by: Gunny on December 24, 2016, 07:05:34 AM
How am I a debbie downer? I didn't say the market would go down. I just pointed out celebrating the Dow hitting 20,000 is on par with celebrating a fictional character's birthday!
Every time I see 420 or 666 come up I have a laugh as well. Don't worry I know they don't really mean anything. ;)

It means Satan has weed to sale.
Title: Re: Dow 20,000+
Post by: lefty on December 24, 2016, 07:48:31 AM
Ha!
Title: Re: Dow 20,000+
Post by: Retire-Canada on December 24, 2016, 08:35:19 AM
It means Satan has weed to sale.

I keep calling him, but he never picks up! Stoner! ;)
Title: Re: Dow 20,000+
Post by: MacGyverIt on December 24, 2016, 10:40:21 AM
Looks like 20K may have to wait until 2017. Trump's tariff talk isn't making anyone happy.

I suspect the initial Trump/deregulation high won't last long, once he's in office and continues his impulsive tweets/behavior. The market loves stability.

I'm *this* close to reallocating my 401k contributions into government securities until reality sets in, at which point it'll be a buyer's market.
Title: Re: Dow 20,000+
Post by: frugledoc on December 24, 2016, 10:57:18 AM
Looks like 20K may have to wait until 2017. Trump's tariff talk isn't making anyone happy.

I suspect the initial Trump/deregulation high won't last long, once he's in office and continues his impulsive tweets/behavior. The market loves stability.

I'm *this* close to reallocating my 401k contributions into government securities until reality sets in, at which point it'll be a buyer's market.

Market timing = bad idea. Don't do it.
Title: Re: Dow 20,000+
Post by: Retire-Canada on December 24, 2016, 11:07:14 AM
I'm *this* close to reallocating my 401k contributions into government securities until reality sets in, at which point it'll be a buyer's market.

I've heard something similar all year. There has always been a reasonable sounding reason. And they have been dead wrong so far. Unless you truly believe you are gifted with the ability to predict the future decide on an asset allocation you can stick with through thick and thin....then stick with it.
Title: Re: Dow 20,000+
Post by: PhysicianOnFIRE on December 25, 2016, 07:57:55 AM
How am I a debbie downer? I didn't say the market would go down. I just pointed out celebrating the Dow hitting 20,000 is on par with celebrating a fictional character's birthday!

Nobody needed that pointed out.

Having fun with stuff like this doesn't have to mean anything. Nobody is suggesting any change to investment strategies or any other action. Watching your portfolio tick over the next $100K is fun too, but that specific number is also not meaningful in any way other than it shows you're making progress towards your FIRE goal.

Every time I see 420 or 666 come up I have a laugh as well. Don't worry I know they don't really mean anything. ;)

The Financial Libre combined 420 talk with Dow 20,000  (http://www.financialibre.com/the-blunt-truth-about-dow-20000/)in a great post.
Title: Re: Dow 20,000+
Post by: Retire-Canada on December 25, 2016, 09:58:05 AM
The Financial Libre combined 420 talk with Dow 20,000  (http://www.financialibre.com/the-blunt-truth-about-dow-20000/)in a great post.

I love it!

If you've ever planned a big social event you know how damn important [and fun] it is for people to get excited for it even if the reason itself is completely arbitrary and irrelevant in an objective analysis.
Title: Re: Dow 20,000+
Post by: Malaysia41 on December 25, 2016, 03:10:49 PM
M41:
http://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/journals/fair-verona-where-we-lay-our-scene/msg1191085/#msg1191085

In case you've never heard of it, take a look and consider a contribution guys/gals:

http://rohingyafund.org/

Awww.... I <3 Cheddar Stacker!  Merry Christmas y'all!
Title: Re: Dow 20,000+
Post by: Cheddar Stacker on December 25, 2016, 08:21:47 PM
M41:
http://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/journals/fair-verona-where-we-lay-our-scene/msg1191085/#msg1191085

In case you've never heard of it, take a look and consider a contribution guys/gals:

http://rohingyafund.org/

Awww.... I <3 Cheddar Stacker!  Merry Christmas y'all!

Merry Christmas. I hope I win this bet for you. If not, I'll make a contribution anyway. <3 back atcha!
Title: Re: Dow 20,000+
Post by: Retire-Canada on January 17, 2017, 07:53:59 AM
The Dow closed at ~19849 yesterday. Still no 20K. I feel like it will be a while yet. Just a hunch, but I think The Donald coming into power will send the markets on a rollercoaster ride for a while until some sense of what he will really do becomes apparent.
Title: Re: Dow 20,000+
Post by: talltexan on January 17, 2017, 08:14:47 AM
but his being elected caused them to go higher? How could the inauguration undo that?
Title: Re: Dow 20,000+
Post by: Retire-Canada on January 17, 2017, 08:23:17 AM
but his being elected caused them to go higher? How could the inauguration undo that?

Because the pre-inauguration enthusiasm was inspirational like Obama's hope message. That's all about feeling and very light on the specifics so people/businesses can see the future they want in the potential outcomes. The post-inauguration period will see him actually having to deliver the details on his policies. That may crush some of the pre-inauguration hopes and if the economy doesn't respond favourably to Trumpism the markets will react negatively.

I don't pretend to know what will happen. I'm just speculating.
Title: Re: Dow 20,000+
Post by: matchewed on January 17, 2017, 02:36:26 PM
His being elected caused certainty. That resolution of the question was what caused it to go higher. That does not mean that anything or everything he will do will cause it to go higher.
Title: Re: Dow 20,000+
Post by: Monocle Money Mouth on January 17, 2017, 03:07:57 PM
His being elected caused certainty. That resolution of the question was what caused it to go higher. That does not mean that anything or everything he will do will cause it to go higher.

This.
Title: Re: Dow 20,000+
Post by: Heckler on January 25, 2017, 07:44:12 AM
This is Kermit the Frog with breaking news...
Title: Re: Dow 20,000+
Post by: Retire-Canada on January 25, 2017, 07:50:57 AM
This is Kermit the Frog with breaking news...

Boom! Mr. % must be twitching. ;)
Title: Re: Dow 20,000+
Post by: davisgang90 on January 25, 2017, 08:21:11 AM
This is Kermit the Frog with breaking news...
Sweet!  Time to do really exciting investment stuff!  Nope, just continuing to invest via dollar cost averaging...boring.
Title: Re: Dow 20,000+
Post by: HPstache on January 25, 2017, 08:52:09 AM
It was within a few pennies a couple of weeks ago, but it finally broke through today.  The world rejoices!
Title: Re: Dow 20,000+
Post by: Nothlit on January 25, 2017, 08:54:56 AM
A really good Planet Money podcast on the topic of the Dow:

http://www.npr.org/sections/money/2017/01/04/508261371/episode-443-dont-believe-the-hype
Title: Re: Dow 20,000+
Post by: PAstash on January 25, 2017, 10:37:09 AM
The Dow...

The Dow is based on the stock price of 30 arbitrarily picked companies.

For comparison, the SP500 is based on the market capitalization(the size of the company) of our 500 largest companies.

Using the Dow's price weighted logic Berkshire Hathaway would be considered over 2,000 times larger than Apple, when in fact Apple is about 1.5 times larger than Berkshire Hathaway. That means you would be overestimating the size of Berkshire Hathaway to be 3,000 times larger than it is... or underestimating the size of Apple by 3,000 times... or worse, some combination of the two.

The Dow uses this funky math because it was created in the late 1800s when it was hard to find useful data on 30 companies, yet alone thousands, and we didn't have computers so the math needed be simple. Result: something that points in the right general direction most of the time, but it is by no means an accurate gauge for measuring the US stock market. Analogy: The Dow is like a rusty compass that occasionally gets stuck pointing south, and the S&P 500 is like GPS.


Yes, celebrate the Dow hitting 20,000. While we are celebrating made up numbers hitting meaningless milestones I would like to celebrate Pikachu's birthday using the Mayan Calendar. Does anyone know what day that would be?

Pikachu was "born" on the first episode of pokemon in Sept 7 1998. (US) this falls on.....

In the Mayan calendar.

Long Count Date
12.19.5.9.1
12 baktun
12 X 144,000 days = 1,728,000 days
19 katun
19 X 7,200 days = 136,800 days
5 tun
5 X 360 days = 1,800 days
9 uinal
9 X 20 days = 180 days
1 k'in
1 X 1 day = 1 days

Tzolk'in Date: 11 Imix'

Haab Date: 14 Mol

Lord of the Night: G1

This is according to pokemon wiki and a random Calendar converter i found when googleing.
Title: Re: Dow 20,000+
Post by: FIRE4Science on January 25, 2017, 10:47:31 AM
DOW just popped over 20,000. 1/25/2017 (Wed)

"The Dow Jones industrial average reached 20,000 points for the first time in history Wednesday as the stock market extended its rally in response to the election of President Trump and prospects for higher corporate profits." LA Times
Title: Re: Dow 20,000+
Post by: Indexer on January 25, 2017, 04:59:39 PM
Dow 20,000!!!!!

Oh wait... oops... except for that math error over 100 years ago. It's actually already over 30,000!

http://www.wsj.com/articles/were-already-at-dow-30000-you-just-dont-know-it-1485362316
Title: Re: Dow 20,000+
Post by: Retire-Canada on January 25, 2017, 05:03:39 PM
I don't care. I had an extra slice of pizza at lunch to celebrate. Ya - I'm crazy like that.

Now on to the S&P hitting 3000! :)
Title: Re: Dow 20,000+
Post by: Cheddar Stacker on January 25, 2017, 05:10:55 PM
Coming soon to a market near you....... DOW < 16,000. Bet.
Title: Re: Dow 20,000+
Post by: 2Birds1Stone on January 25, 2017, 05:15:04 PM
Coming soon to a market near you....... DOW < 16,000. Bet.

Not happening =)
Title: Re: Dow 20,000+
Post by: Retire-Canada on January 25, 2017, 06:13:04 PM
Coming soon to a market near you....... DOW < 16,000. Bet.

Soon. So within the next 4 months?
Title: Re: Dow 20,000+
Post by: Cheddar Stacker on January 25, 2017, 07:21:59 PM

Not happening =)


Soon. So within the next 4 months?

Within 2017.
Title: Re: Dow 20,000+
Post by: boarder42 on January 25, 2017, 07:48:21 PM
I'll bet a pint of Blvd vs a pint of schlafly we don't see close under 16k in 2017.
Title: Re: Dow 20,000+
Post by: MightyAl on January 25, 2017, 07:58:27 PM
I'll bet a pint of Blvd vs a pint of schlafly we don't see close under 16k in 2017.

Sounds like an I-70 bet.

Title: Re: Dow 20,000+
Post by: Polish_Hammer on January 25, 2017, 08:10:39 PM
Trump has modeled both his campaign strategy and monetary policy after Ronal d Reagan.  Reagan deregulated and the market took off. Trump is deregulating and the market is taking off.  I am not a fan of  Trump but let's enjoy the run-up without  feeding into the consumerism of the eighties
Title: Re: Dow 20,000+
Post by: Cheddar Stacker on January 25, 2017, 08:14:08 PM
I'll bet a pint of Blvd vs a pint of schlafly we don't see close under 16k in 2017.

Sounds like an I-70 bet.

Yep.

Don't you already owe me a couple Boulevards Boarder? My bet is in. Cash for charity. Just having fun, but I do feel like a drop is imminent.
Title: Re: Dow 20,000+
Post by: Retire-Canada on January 26, 2017, 06:32:31 AM
Within 2017.

Okay. Let's see what happens. Personally I don't think so, but I will admit to not being able to predict the future!
Title: Re: Dow 20,000+
Post by: 2Birds1Stone on January 26, 2017, 06:49:36 AM
I can see us going back to 18,000, but don't see 16,000 happening...I will gladly eat my words and sell possessions to buy in at those levels ;)
Title: Re: Dow 20,000+
Post by: Le Barbu on January 26, 2017, 07:00:01 AM
We Will see 21,000+ before <16,000
Title: Re: Dow 20,000+
Post by: BTDretire on January 26, 2017, 07:15:11 AM
Dow?, S&P?, Nah! It about VTSAX.
Title: Re: Dow 20,000+
Post by: boarder42 on January 26, 2017, 07:22:01 AM
I can see us going back to 18,000, but don't see 16,000 happening...I will gladly eat my words and sell possessions to buy in at those levels ;)

yep ... agreed. i'd be selling everything boat etc. if we say 16k.  sell or refinance the cars... take out a HELOC.
Title: Re: Dow 20,000+
Post by: Retire-Canada on March 01, 2017, 09:42:16 AM
(http://pre12.deviantart.net/c9bb/th/pre/f/2015/299/0/1/drago_aojiro__21_000_pageviews____by_tuffdrago-d9dhdf1.png)

Dow = 21000+

Come on S&P 2.5K is so close. ;)
Title: Re: Dow 20,000+
Post by: Metric Mouse on March 01, 2017, 01:12:30 PM
Yusssss... should I cash out now and wait for the crash?
Title: Re: Dow 20,000+
Post by: Retire-Canada on March 01, 2017, 01:20:28 PM
Yusssss... should I cash out now and wait for the crash?

Smart money says yes. I've been sitting on cash since last May when Mr. % was kind enough to let me know about the Great 2016 2017 Crash coming our way! Imagine how insane our returns will be when we unleash our dry powder? Not to mention my mattress is getting a wee bit too firm for a good night's sleep with all that cash stuffed inside!
Title: Re: Dow 20,000+
Post by: Tyson on March 01, 2017, 01:29:33 PM
Can I say it now???? Yes, here it comes.... RED DOW!!!!

Man, whatever happened to that guy?
Title: Re: Dow 20,000+
Post by: Retire-Canada on March 01, 2017, 01:31:18 PM
Can I say it now???? Yes, here it comes.... RED DOW!!!!

Man, whatever happened to that guy?

He's sitting on so much cash he can't even find his laptop any more.
Title: Re: Dow 20,000+
Post by: Heckler on March 01, 2017, 03:25:35 PM
March 1 is my first rebalance date. Gotta sell US to buy bonds.  Is this really a thing?
Title: Re: Dow 20,000+
Post by: Mr. Green on March 01, 2017, 05:29:25 PM
I can see us going back to 18,000, but don't see 16,000 happening...I will gladly eat my words and sell possessions to buy in at those levels ;)
16 is only 76.19% of 21. So a 25% drop would put us back to 16k. That could totally happen. I wouldn't be worried about 16k because 25% drops have happened numerous times before.
Title: Re: Dow 20,000+
Post by: boarder42 on March 01, 2017, 05:34:39 PM
I can see us going back to 18,000, but don't see 16,000 happening...I will gladly eat my words and sell possessions to buy in at those levels ;)
16 is only 76.19% of 21. So a 25% drop would put us back to 16k. That could totally happen. I wouldn't be worried about 16k because 25% drops have happened numerous times before.

I wouldn't be worried about it BC it's not relevant. Also with the increase in indexer investors at an exponential rate. We have much more stable markets than in the past.
Title: Re: Dow 20,000+
Post by: FIreDrill on March 01, 2017, 05:36:56 PM
What a way to kick of the year. NW is up nearly 30k after just 2 months, big thanks the to stock market.  I guess we'll see how high this Rollercoaster takes us!

Sent from my SM-G935F using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Dow 20,000+
Post by: talltexan on March 02, 2017, 06:42:08 AM
Conversations with the wife lately have been about putting extra money toward paying down debt rather than investing more. When your NW goes up anyway, there just doesn't feel like the same urgency to put more in.
Title: Re: Dow 20,000+
Post by: Retire-Canada on March 02, 2017, 07:27:37 AM
Conversations with the wife lately have been about putting extra money toward paying down debt rather than investing more. When your NW goes up anyway, there just doesn't feel like the same urgency to put more in.

Except more money and more growth equals faster elimination of the debt.
Title: Re: Dow 20,000+
Post by: Mr. Green on March 02, 2017, 08:08:01 AM
What a way to kick of the year. NW is up nearly 30k after just 2 months, big thanks the to stock market.  I guess we'll see how high this Rollercoaster takes us!

Sent from my SM-G935F using Tapatalk
Your comment made me think that it feels like the exact inverse of last year. A great example of why you can't be emotional when it comes to investing.
Title: Re: Dow 20,000+
Post by: MrGville on March 02, 2017, 08:43:59 AM
I know multiple people that told me they were going to sell all of their stocks if Trump won.  I never followed up with them to see if they actually sold or not, but they would have missed out on ~10% gain of the S&P 500.  However, I doubt they are index investors, so who knows what gains they missed out on.
Title: Re: Dow 20,000+
Post by: FIreDrill on March 02, 2017, 08:48:09 AM
What a way to kick of the year. NW is up nearly 30k after just 2 months, big thanks the to stock market.  I guess we'll see how high this Rollercoaster takes us!

Sent from my SM-G935F using Tapatalk
Your comment made me think that it feels like the exact inverse of last year. A great example of why you can't be emotional when it comes to investing.
Indeed, emotions are an investors kryptonite.

I still find myself hoping the market will make another 20% correction so I can get in at lower prices during my accumulation stage.

Either way there are upsides.  If we continue this bull market, then I'll continue to invest and achieve my NW goals quicker.  If we take another correction, then I have a great opportunity to continue buying in at lower prices.

Win/Win either way.

Sent from my SM-G935F using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Dow 20,000+
Post by: Cheddar Stacker on December 28, 2017, 06:27:09 PM
@Chedder Stacker

I've actually donated to that fund.  I pick Khan Academy.

I'll restate the terms again and if you are in agreement I will put a reminder on December 31, 2017 or you can PM when the DOW does breaks below 16,000.00 during normal trading days and hours between 9:30AM to 4PM EST.

Cheddar Stacker will donate $100 to Khan Academy Org if the DOW does not break below 16,000.00 between January 1, 2017 to December 31, 2017.  Chedder Stacker will donate the funds to the selected charity withing 7 business day of January 1, 2018.

MXT0133 will donate $100 to http://rohingyafund.org/ if the DOW breaks below 16,000.00 during normal trading days and hours between 9:30AM to 4PM EST.  Specifically if the DOW reaches 15,999.99 or lower.  It does not have to close below 16,000.00 it just has to break it during normals trading days and hours. MXT0133 can choose to donate the funds either on the day the DOW goes below 16,000.00 or any time before December 31, 2017.

Screen shots will be sufficient evidence of funds donated to the selected charities.

Deal!

Mxt, thanks for the nudge. I was planning to get it done this week but it was nice to be reminded. See attached for proof of your donation made today.

So 25,000+, or 20,000 next year? Just joking, I'm done predicting the DOW. Either way, we all know what to do to maximize our net worth and hopefully future philanthropy.

Happy New Year all!
Title: Re: Dow 20,000+
Post by: matchewed on December 28, 2017, 08:28:43 PM
@Chedder Stacker

I've actually donated to that fund.  I pick Khan Academy.

I'll restate the terms again and if you are in agreement I will put a reminder on December 31, 2017 or you can PM when the DOW does breaks below 16,000.00 during normal trading days and hours between 9:30AM to 4PM EST.

Cheddar Stacker will donate $100 to Khan Academy Org if the DOW does not break below 16,000.00 between January 1, 2017 to December 31, 2017.  Chedder Stacker will donate the funds to the selected charity withing 7 business day of January 1, 2018.

MXT0133 will donate $100 to http://rohingyafund.org/ if the DOW breaks below 16,000.00 during normal trading days and hours between 9:30AM to 4PM EST.  Specifically if the DOW reaches 15,999.99 or lower.  It does not have to close below 16,000.00 it just has to break it during normals trading days and hours. MXT0133 can choose to donate the funds either on the day the DOW goes below 16,000.00 or any time before December 31, 2017.

Screen shots will be sufficient evidence of funds donated to the selected charities.

Deal!

Mxt, thanks for the nudge. I was planning to get it done this week but it was nice to be reminded. See attached for proof of your donation made today.

So 25,000+, or 20,000 next year? Just joking, I'm done predicting the DOW. Either way, we all know what to do to maximize our net worth and hopefully future philanthropy.

Happy New Year all!

Bravo CS
Title: Re: Dow 20,000+
Post by: Malaysia41 on December 29, 2017, 01:26:10 AM
@Chedder Stacker

I've actually donated to that fund.  I pick Khan Academy.

I'll restate the terms again and if you are in agreement I will put a reminder on December 31, 2017 or you can PM when the DOW does breaks below 16,000.00 during normal trading days and hours between 9:30AM to 4PM EST.

Cheddar Stacker will donate $100 to Khan Academy Org if the DOW does not break below 16,000.00 between January 1, 2017 to December 31, 2017.  Chedder Stacker will donate the funds to the selected charity withing 7 business day of January 1, 2018.

MXT0133 will donate $100 to http://rohingyafund.org/ if the DOW breaks below 16,000.00 during normal trading days and hours between 9:30AM to 4PM EST.  Specifically if the DOW reaches 15,999.99 or lower.  It does not have to close below 16,000.00 it just has to break it during normals trading days and hours. MXT0133 can choose to donate the funds either on the day the DOW goes below 16,000.00 or any time before December 31, 2017.

Screen shots will be sufficient evidence of funds donated to the selected charities.

Deal!

Mxt, thanks for the nudge. I was planning to get it done this week but it was nice to be reminded. See attached for proof of your donation made today.

So 25,000+, or 20,000 next year? Just joking, I'm done predicting the DOW. Either way, we all know what to do to maximize our net worth and hopefully future philanthropy.

Happy New Year all!

Damn. Rohingyafund loses out, but at least we all have higher net worths yoy! Happy new year!
Title: Re: Dow 20,000+
Post by: Davids on December 29, 2017, 07:23:06 AM
Coming soon to a market near you....... DOW < 16,000. Bet.
Define soon...
Title: Re: Dow 20,000+
Post by: boarder42 on December 29, 2017, 07:31:22 AM
Coming soon to a market near you....... DOW < 16,000. Bet.
Define soon...

Dude post is a year old. Bet was made and lost already. Mostly in humor
Title: Re: Dow 20,000+
Post by: Tyson on December 29, 2017, 08:24:07 AM
Yusssss... should I cash out now and wait for the crash?

Smart money says yes. I've been sitting on cash since last May when Mr. % was kind enough to let me know about the Great 2016 2017 2018 Crash coming our way! Imagine how insane our returns will be when we unleash our dry powder? Not to mention my mattress is getting a wee bit too firm for a good night's sleep with all that cash stuffed inside!

Fixed that for you.
Title: Re: Dow 20,000+
Post by: theolympians on December 29, 2017, 06:46:17 PM
Coming soon to a market near you....... DOW < 16,000. Bet.

OOPs
Title: Re: Dow 20,000+
Post by: Retire-Canada on December 29, 2017, 06:49:14 PM
Fixed that for you.

Cash seemed too risky so I diversified into bitcoin and sardines.