Author Topic: Does anyone else feel like they're treading water?  (Read 22599 times)

Dicey

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Re: Does anyone else feel like they're treading water?
« Reply #200 on: November 03, 2023, 10:20:03 AM »
Has anyone thought about allocating a small % to bitcoin instead of bonds?
Hell no!  In retrospect,  I wish I had considered my fixed rate mortgage a bond for the purpose of calculating my AA. By not including it (it was "over there", all by itself),  I believe my portfolio became unintentionally conservative. Since I live in a HCOLA, I never had a mortgage that wasn't comparatively huge.

I now believe the smarter play in the accumulation phase would have been fixed rate mortgage/100% equities, but no one was suggesting that way back when.

We're FIRE now, with no mortgage on our primary, so it's water under the bridge, but I do think FIRE would have happened sooner had I done that had any idea I could do such an audacious thing.
« Last Edit: November 03, 2023, 11:04:35 AM by Dicey »

mistymoney

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Re: Does anyone else feel like they're treading water?
« Reply #201 on: November 03, 2023, 10:29:42 AM »
I was the one who bumped this thread and was updting my brokerage returns.

Now at +2.58% after this week and I simply bought more on Tuesday, ignoring my feeling of treeading! Glad Im sticking with it.

one thing we know, buy and hold has always worked. As long as you hold long enough.

Scandium

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Re: Does anyone else feel like they're treading water?
« Reply #202 on: November 03, 2023, 10:31:30 AM »
This book was specifically written to inspire the FIRE movement, I thought the title was self explanatory.  Of course, writing, compiling, editing, etc. took a few years, so it was started at the height of FIRE popularity (2019) has now landed with a thud.

Collins' first FIRE book (a fancied up version of his stock series on his blog) was published in the summer of 2016.  I don't have the data, but I recall it being #1 in Introduction to Investing and was everywhere.  At the time, MMM had been begged to write a FIRE book, but Collins ended up doing it with MMM writing a foreword.  FIRE was still a bit of a niche back then, so I'm not sure comparing the popularity of the two books at release is apples to apples, but this book is less popular by far.

Edit to add - on Amazon, it claims that Simple Path to Wealth has sold over 500,000 copies and was a #1 'International Sensation'...

Ok sure, maybe it's true. But I'm confused. So what? Why should we care? I don't give a damn if FIRE is "popular" or not. I only care about my savings and my future. If anything I want it to be less popular, since that's better for the economy, and thus my portfolio. Maybe this is just me, but I'm not in a cult, trying to "recruit" people..

Just thought it was an interesting data point and I enjoyed discussing it.  FIRE used to be a hot trend (especially the Early Retirement part), seemingly getting hotter by the year.  RetireBy40 saw it in his blog income as well as this forum (typical day = Most Online Today: 1418. Most Online Ever: 8820).  Then the stock market faltered for a year or two and now it's back to being niche.

Yeah sure, somewhat interesting, maybe it correlate to the stocks market. I was just confused by the context here I guess.

mistymoney

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Re: Does anyone else feel like they're treading water?
« Reply #203 on: November 03, 2023, 10:47:21 AM »
in regards to book sales, is there really anything new after you read 1-2 books and what is available for free on the internet? And if there is a nugget or two of new and interesting info - is that book worthy?

Just speaking for myself personally, I read maybe 6-7 books on personal finance, saving, investing, etc. I doubt I'll ever read another one and I think most of those were read 10-20 years ago. If I want more info on something I post a question on a message board or google up some info, or go to the bogleheads wiki pages.

In terms of a younger crrowd coming online, I don't think they do self help books much at all. Tiktok the message over 20 easy bits of info is they way to the message to them.


neo von retorch

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Re: Does anyone else feel like they're treading water?
« Reply #204 on: November 03, 2023, 10:53:02 AM »
in regards to book sales, is there really anything new after you read 1-2 books and what is available for free on the internet? And if there is a nugget or two of new and interesting info - is that book worthy?

It's also a terrible gauge to compare things released at different points in time without taking into account what happened in between.

2008-2012 Get rich slowly, I will teach you to be rich, early retirement extreme, mr. money mustache, jim collins, etc.
2013-2023+ An exploding legion of blogs and books being written

(Dates approximate!) The point is... early success leads to lots of followers trying to fill in some slightly different niche within the FIRE economy.

Of course FIRE was popular during the amazing 2008-2019 bull market... everyone felt like "for sure, investing money will quickly fund my early retirement!"

So I guess maybe there's some slight argument that the hiccups in the market over the past 3 years have made people more careful about jumping into this crazy FIRE thing. (Not that things like this aren't accounted for in Jim Collins stock series, etc.)

Log

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Re: Does anyone else feel like they're treading water?
« Reply #205 on: November 03, 2023, 11:53:29 AM »
It's funny that in just the past two and half weeks, the market dropped suddenly, this thread became more active, and then the market rebounded to exactly where it was. (:

JupiterGreen

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Re: Does anyone else feel like they're treading water?
« Reply #206 on: November 03, 2023, 12:26:16 PM »
in regards to book sales, is there really anything new after you read 1-2 books and what is available for free on the internet? And if there is a nugget or two of new and interesting info - is that book worthy?

It's also a terrible gauge to compare things released at different points in time without taking into account what happened in between.

2008-2012 Get rich slowly, I will teach you to be rich, early retirement extreme, mr. money mustache, jim collins, etc.
2013-2023+ An exploding legion of blogs and books being written

(Dates approximate!) The point is... early success leads to lots of followers trying to fill in some slightly different niche within the FIRE economy.

Of course FIRE was popular during the amazing 2008-2019 bull market... everyone felt like "for sure, investing money will quickly fund my early retirement!"

So I guess maybe there's some slight argument that the hiccups in the market over the past 3 years have made people more careful about jumping into this crazy FIRE thing. (Not that things like this aren't accounted for in Jim Collins stock series, etc.)

I've been thinking about this a lot lately. The time period was ripe for the FIRE movement to be born, but also the ages of early FIRE gurus makes it such that there is still much to be determined. As you alluded to, who knows if later adopters will end up with enough wealth to sustain their plan. Another part to it is that FIRE gurus all seem to have shifted their original message a bit. Paula Pant, Choose Fi, etc podcasts have MMM, J.L. Collins etc on quite a bit and "how to spend" has been a popular topic they are discussing as of late. If you are just getting started, your accumulation might look very different than someone who started in 08 or 13 so while I do appreciate the conversations surrounding spending it may not be super helpful to newer FIRE folks whose portfolios are barely budging.

Wintergreen78

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Re: Does anyone else feel like they're treading water?
« Reply #207 on: November 03, 2023, 01:01:53 PM »
It's funny that in just the past two and half weeks, the market dropped suddenly, this thread became more active, and then the market rebounded to exactly where it was. (:

I’d also like to point out that the SP 500 is up 17% YTD and is averaging 11.6% over the last 5 years and 11.5% over the last 10 (total return).

In other words, everything is more or less normal.

I’m still waiting to hear how people’s active trading strategies have done on an annual/5 year/10 year basis. Is there anyone out there who’s tracked their performance over a full decade who wants to post some numbers?

ChpBstrd

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Re: Does anyone else feel like they're treading water?
« Reply #208 on: November 03, 2023, 03:41:15 PM »
in regards to book sales, is there really anything new after you read 1-2 books and what is available for free on the internet? And if there is a nugget or two of new and interesting info - is that book worthy?
It's also a terrible gauge to compare things released at different points in time without taking into account what happened in between.

2008-2012 Get rich slowly, I will teach you to be rich, early retirement extreme, mr. money mustache, jim collins, etc.
2013-2023+ An exploding legion of blogs and books being written

(Dates approximate!) The point is... early success leads to lots of followers trying to fill in some slightly different niche within the FIRE economy.

Of course FIRE was popular during the amazing 2008-2019 bull market... everyone felt like "for sure, investing money will quickly fund my early retirement!"

So I guess maybe there's some slight argument that the hiccups in the market over the past 3 years have made people more careful about jumping into this crazy FIRE thing. (Not that things like this aren't accounted for in Jim Collins stock series, etc.)
The pandemic left a lot of people feeling deprived of things like restaurant meals, vacations, concerts, new cars, etc. while spending ever-more time staring at ads. Hence the revenge spending that has thoroughly blown the stimulus checks from 2020-2021. And yet, because of hedonic adaptation and continued habits that over-expose us to ads, people still seem to feel deprived.

Thus we're not hearing much talk from the FIRE blogosphere about frugal recipes, thrift store clothes, or living on $40k per year. To some extent it's become a conversation about how to use your side gig to buy cryptocurrency and afford a Tesla. People just don't want to hear about optimizing the grocery bill, bicycle commuting, or setting the thermostat to 66F in the winter. WE'RE FUCKING SOFT and conditioned to expect social media influencers' "one simple trick" to allow us to live like gazillionaires. The content follows the clicks so here we are, treading water.

Freedomin5

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Re: Does anyone else feel like they're treading water?
« Reply #209 on: November 03, 2023, 04:49:40 PM »
It's funny that in just the past two and half weeks, the market dropped suddenly, this thread became more active, and then the market rebounded to exactly where it was. (:

I’d also like to point out that the SP 500 is up 17% YTD and is averaging 11.6% over the last 5 years and 11.5% over the last 10 (total return).

In other words, everything is more or less normal.

I’m still waiting to hear how people’s active trading strategies have done on an annual/5 year/10 year basis. Is there anyone out there who’s tracked their performance over a full decade who wants to post some numbers?

I just checked our accounts. It feels like we’ve been treading water all year, but in reality our accounts are up 11% in the past 12 months, and total net worth has increased by around 250k. This is lower than in previous years, but it’s not too shabby. I guess we aren’t doing as badly as I thought.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Does anyone else feel like they're treading water?
« Reply #210 on: November 04, 2023, 01:56:04 AM »
I’d also like to point out that the SP 500 is up 17% YTD ...
The S&P 500 is up +15% YTD, after rising +1% since your post.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/performance?p=SPY
https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/arcx/spy/performance

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Does anyone else feel like they're treading water?
« Reply #211 on: November 04, 2023, 02:36:25 AM »
I’m still waiting to hear how people’s active trading strategies have done on an annual/5 year/10 year basis. Is there anyone out there who’s tracked their performance over a full decade who wants to post some numbers?
My signature links to "An experiment", where I bought and held three stocks 18 months and beat the market +139%.  All three were in my portfolio, where I also used call options.  Before I could return to passive investing, in late 2021 the Fed came out with nonsense about fighting 7% inflation with +0.50% rate hikes.  I stayed active and beat the S&P 500 by double digits again (every year 2020-2022).  But it was far more time consuming and stressful, and in early 2023 I needed a break.

I didn't expect to beat the market forever, so during 2022 I moved most of my NW into hedge funds.  So my brokerage accounts hold a fraction of my NW, and I now only speculate with a fraction of that.  I treat active investment as a hobby, where I buy & sell once/week (or twice in nutty weeks like this past one).  Since I won't return to high-effort active investing again, that ends at 3 years.

Anyone who picks stocks, times the market, or admits they are investing actively... I encourage them to use the S&P 500 as a benchmark.  If you can't beat it, you can join it (buying $SPY).

mistymoney

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Re: Does anyone else feel like they're treading water?
« Reply #212 on: November 04, 2023, 10:34:40 AM »
It's funny that in just the past two and half weeks, the market dropped suddenly, this thread became more active, and then the market rebounded to exactly where it was. (:

I’d also like to point out that the SP 500 is up 17% YTD and is averaging 11.6% over the last 5 years and 11.5% over the last 10 (total return).

In other words, everything is more or less normal.

I’m still waiting to hear how people’s active trading strategies have done on an annual/5 year/10 year basis. Is there anyone out there who’s tracked their performance over a full decade who wants to post some numbers?

I just checked our accounts. It feels like we’ve been treading water all year, but in reality our accounts are up 11% in the past 12 months, and total net worth has increased by around 250k. This is lower than in previous years, but it’s not too shabby. I guess we aren’t doing as badly as I thought.

I guess it all depends on your comparison point. For me, if I am below my personal ATH, I'm still waiting :)

spoiler: I'm still waiting...

Scandium

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Re: Does anyone else feel like they're treading water?
« Reply #213 on: November 06, 2023, 08:55:32 AM »
It's funny that in just the past two and half weeks, the market dropped suddenly, this thread became more active, and then the market rebounded to exactly where it was. (:

I’d also like to point out that the SP 500 is up 17% YTD and is averaging 11.6% over the last 5 years and 11.5% over the last 10 (total return).

In other words, everything is more or less normal.

I’m still waiting to hear how people’s active trading strategies have done on an annual/5 year/10 year basis. Is there anyone out there who’s tracked their performance over a full decade who wants to post some numbers?

I just checked our accounts. It feels like we’ve been treading water all year, but in reality our accounts are up 11% in the past 12 months, and total net worth has increased by around 250k. This is lower than in previous years, but it’s not too shabby. I guess we aren’t doing as badly as I thought.

Bit of a limited celebration being up 15% for 12 months, when for 2 years the S&P is still down 7%! (and my broad market fund -11%). Still below all time high, and that's after putting in something like $30k+)

ATtiny85

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Re: Does anyone else feel like they're treading water?
« Reply #214 on: November 14, 2023, 03:49:32 PM »
Still just treading water, but fun to have days like today and think “hey if we can stack these back to back until Black Friday, it would be like Christmas '21 around here.”

It has taken a lot of monthly investments to make the overall investment portfolio up near our highs,  but I have taken the opportunity of some these little boosts to take some slices off the SP500 fund in my 401k and put it into a US Bond Fund. I have a slow glide path plan but about the time I finalized it, the market did the moves for me. Somewhat satisfying to get to click a couple buttons.


mistymoney

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Re: Does anyone else feel like they're treading water?
« Reply #215 on: November 15, 2023, 11:40:28 AM »
Still just treading water, but fun to have days like today and think “hey if we can stack these back to back until Black Friday, it would be like Christmas '21 around here.”

It has taken a lot of monthly investments to make the overall investment portfolio up near our highs,  but I have taken the opportunity of some these little boosts to take some slices off the SP500 fund in my 401k and put it into a US Bond Fund. I have a slow glide path plan but about the time I finalized it, the market did the moves for me. Somewhat satisfying to get to click a couple buttons.

been feeling a little bit of traction lately!

blue_green_sparks

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Re: Does anyone else feel like they're treading water?
« Reply #216 on: November 15, 2023, 02:44:04 PM »
Still just treading water, but fun to have days like today and think “hey if we can stack these back to back until Black Friday, it would be like Christmas '21 around here.”

It has taken a lot of monthly investments to make the overall investment portfolio up near our highs,  but I have taken the opportunity of some these little boosts to take some slices off the SP500 fund in my 401k and put it into a US Bond Fund. I have a slow glide path plan but about the time I finalized it, the market did the moves for me. Somewhat satisfying to get to click a couple buttons.

been feeling a little bit of traction lately!
Yes, almost back up to our ATH, but this recent run-up could still just be a head-fake.

baconschteam

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Re: Does anyone else feel like they're treading water?
« Reply #217 on: December 04, 2023, 11:19:03 AM »
I'm totally feeling this, treading water. Very bored. But a it's reminder that the goal is to focus on living our lives well. I've not been great at this however. I just started seriously investing around 2020, so these past few years have been more than an annoying start.

One positive is that while investments seem lame I've been focusing on spending. Specifically, optimizing our wallet's credit card selection so that we get 5% cash back on almost everything.

Sandi_k

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Re: Does anyone else feel like they're treading water?
« Reply #218 on: December 04, 2023, 12:00:24 PM »
So I just did our December 1 update. With an 82%/18% portfolio, we're up 17.92% for the year. That's not treading water - we're finally within reach of our all-time high portfolio values.

I also just upped my monthly auto-transfer by $100; when added to the mandatory pension amount, we're back at 15% of our gross income going to retirement.

It just dawned on me that DH is now pretty much done with converting his SEP-IRA to Roth; I can probably reduce my over-withholding, and send more of my paycheck to my Roth 457 for 2024.

Yay! New calcs to do! :-)

ChpBstrd

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Re: Does anyone else feel like they're treading water?
« Reply #219 on: December 04, 2023, 01:11:25 PM »
I got a reprieve from the feeling of treading water.

In early November, I decided "the top is in" for long-term bond yields. I piled 90+% of my assets into the longest-duration US treasuries I could find: 28-30 year bonds with 1.25% yields or zero yields, and ETFs like TLT, ZROZ, and EDV. I was correct and my portfolio is up over 6% in the past 30 days.

I actually beat the performance of SPY (up 4.9% in the same timeframe) - with US treasury bonds, hahah! - and I'm up five figures. The move in the 30y treasury yield that generated this outcome was only -0.4%.

Going to hold my high-duration portfolio until the 30y treasury yield goes below 4%, where it was as recently as July. My thesis is inflation is done, and we're in for lower rates regardless of whether a recession or a soft landing is the outcome. If recession is the outcome, as is historically indicated, then playing this strategy might allow me to sell bonds high and buy stocks low at some future time. It may not happen that way, but it's nice to be set up to jump on the opportunity if it comes.

Exflyboy

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Re: Does anyone else feel like they're treading water?
« Reply #220 on: December 13, 2023, 10:37:28 PM »
I think i unexpectedly found the solid bottom of the swimming pool today!..:)

ATtiny85

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Re: Does anyone else feel like they're treading water?
« Reply #221 on: December 14, 2023, 06:22:45 AM »
I think i unexpectedly found the solid bottom of the swimming pool today!..:)

Yeah, no kidding. It's nice of course, but I can't tell if I am in the swallow end (solid going forward) or if the pool was drained down (solid only until refill.)

That's about all the mileage (kilometerage???) I can get from the pool analogy without a coffee refill.


mistymoney

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Re: Does anyone else feel like they're treading water?
« Reply #222 on: December 14, 2023, 09:40:37 AM »
I think i unexpectedly found the solid bottom of the swimming pool today!..:)

Yeah, no kidding. It's nice of course, but I can't tell if I am in the swallow end (solid going forward) or if the pool was drained down (solid only until refill.)

That's about all the mileage (kilometerage???) I can get from the pool analogy without a coffee refill.

I'm not understanding it at all!

mistymoney

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Re: Does anyone else feel like they're treading water?
« Reply #223 on: December 14, 2023, 09:46:38 AM »
been a pretty sweet week so far on wall street.....wonder if it will keep it up through end of week?

Current employers 401k has hit new ATH wed and again on thrusday.....will see what tomorrow brings.

SP500 within spitting distance of the Jan 3 2022 ATH...

treading water is over, baby!

Maybe!!

ChpBstrd

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Re: Does anyone else feel like they're treading water?
« Reply #224 on: February 15, 2024, 08:56:33 PM »
Just checked my brokerage account and holy shit!

Since mid-November 2023, I'm up $126,336 or 18.9% in those accounts. The treading water feeling is over, thanks to some timely trading into and out of long-duration bonds in Nov-Dec. followed by getting into a stock-heavy AA in January.

With losses comes fear, and with gains comes greed. I will need to think hard about whether the past 3 months is affecting my perceived risk tolerance. At the moment, I have the urge to let it all ride unhedged.

Heckler

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Re: Does anyone else feel like they're treading water?
« Reply #225 on: February 16, 2024, 01:30:48 PM »

With losses comes fear, and with gains comes greed. I will need to think hard about whether the past 3 months are affecting my perceived risk tolerance. At the moment, I have the urge to let it all ride unhedged.

Having stuck to our plan, from April to November 2023, we invested the equivalent of 100% of her AGI, or >50% of his AGI. 

Labours, meet Fruit...

It's time to get Fearful now.

edit - no, we didn't stick to the plan.  It was exceeded by 19%.
« Last Edit: February 16, 2024, 01:33:32 PM by Heckler »

 

Wow, a phone plan for fifteen bucks!