Thx for the kind words stoaX and and BicycleB.
On the nuts-and-bolts question(s) raised in this thread:
Long term returns are driven by many factors. Two of the most important ones are:
1. Productivity Growth
2. Financialization of the economy.
#1 -> Quantum computers figure out low-cost and low-energy ways to produce ammonia (some bacteria do it) -> second eco-friendly green revolution in Africa.
#2 -> Walmart (listed, SP500 component) driving mom and pops (unlisted, private) out of business. Big Tech + COVID accelerating the trend.
Caveat(s): These are not mutually exclusive, just different flavors of "similar" things. Plus the above discounts other drivers, e.g. the population growth component of the economic growth.
Long term, #2 will someday hit a wall. There is only so much financialization you can do.
#1, however, can continue for a very long time as measured in "economic utility".
So, to argue that the exponential driver is somehow going to go bust is not rooted in reality, IMO.
Further, I'd argue that #2 has a looong way to run still. Not many moms and pops in Africa, India and other parts of the world are integrated into the world financial system.
Yes, there are losers in such a process. It sucks to be a small business owner in this march of behemoths!! But, if you can't defeat them - join 'em. Buy VOO (or VT/VTI) and partake in their exponential climb!!
Nobody knows the future. I certainly don't. I did not write the above to predict a specific version of future. It is just to show that an optimistic outcome in long term is as equally plausible (and I personally think more probable) than a gloom and doom one.
So, my personal "next 6 month plan" is to continue socking away in VOO/FXAIX. If the world changes in 6 months, I will take a stock again.
I also don't claim that this "6 month thinking" is a magic bullet. DW complains that this approach of mine gives her a headache because she needs a more firm direction that doesn't change every 6 months. She thinks my way of thinking leaves things too much on shaky ground. Last time around, I pointed out that I am simply doing Dynamic Programming like she studied for her MS (
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dynamic_programming), and she stomped out saying I am being "condescending" to her. Go figure!! So it must be a personality thing whether this will work for you or not.