My thesis is that some Iranian anger is reduced by their need to mourn. So the market is watching Iran react, and those reactions are muted. My thesis being the market is measuring Iranian anger, before that anger has reached full volume. So I think when Iran emerges from this mourning, they will issue threats that will be reflected in stock markets and oil prices.
One counter argument is the demand for oil. Growth in most of the world is slowing, and may enter a recession. A slowdown, let alone a recession, means less demand for oil. So if Iran threatens the oil supply, it doesn't matter as much if that oil isn't needed as much, anyways. Reduced demand makes supply risks less impactful.
Will Iran target major oil producers? If that risk is higher than expected, then oil prices are too low. The other half of my thesis is that the risk is higher. Iran can't win a war against the U.S., and they know it. I believe they will avoid starting a war, but want revenge, which I think means they will attack U.S. allies. The most prominent allies are Israel and Saudi Arabia. It was just last year that a missile struck a Saudi oil refinery and spiked oil prices until repairs were made. Iran has been blamed, and is the likely culprit or supplier of the missile. When they do something similar, I would expect oil prices to rise.
So that's my thesis: Iran is mixing anger and sadness, and in the coming days that will become just anger. They will attack U.S. allies to inflict harm in a way that doesn't give the U.S. an excuse to start a war.
I agree with ChpBstrd that futures are overly risky, as most of the time options expire worthless, so ETFs seem like a better choice. I think I'll switch a very tiny part of my portfolio into one of the oil ETFs today.
If there's really bad news that impacts the price of oil significantly, I plan to sell a third or half of my allocation. Repeat 2 or 3 times, and I'll have proven that my thesis was right. But speculating against the market is a bad idea, and I could easily be wrong. So if nothing happens by May 2020, I'll sell it all regardless of losses or gains.
When I make my purchase today, I'll quote the ETF I bought and at what price. Friday oil moved +3% higher. If it jumps twice that (+6%) before I can buy in, I'll abandon the whole thing, and assume the market has priced in the above risks.
If I can get political (which this thread already sort of does), sometimes I feel like my information is better than the White House's information. So this time, I want the market to decide who is right: their view that things will stay relatively calm, or my view that things are about to get worse.
I'll update this thread on what happens with my attempted purchase.