Author Topic: Do investments in S&P 500 really double every ~7 years?  (Read 23517 times)

J.P. MoreGains

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Re: Do investments in S&P 500 really double every ~7 years?
« Reply #50 on: June 10, 2024, 07:30:22 AM »
Yes - from everything I've seen the TIAA options are very limited.

Fortunately that is my second job so the contributions I'm making are smaller and I think by December that job could end which at that point I would rollover into my Vanguard.

The other two aren't as bad as I thought so I'm happy about that.

Regardless I have a lot of reading to do... I really don't understand this stuff. If pressed to explain in any meaningful way what "market capitalization", "equity", etc mean I would struggle. I want to understand this stuff better. I mean I really don't know how the stock market actually works which is embarrasing.

It's kind of like a kid when I thought when my parents put money in the bank that the bank kept it all in a little safe box for them.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Do investments in S&P 500 really double every ~7 years?
« Reply #51 on: June 12, 2024, 08:41:42 AM »
also being forced to default 35%+ into international is just asinine throwing returns away, no thanks I'd rather see gains
You're saying hundreds of billions of dollars invested at Vanguard, Schwab and Fidelity are all wrong?  If they screw over retirees they can be sued for it.  Compare that to you, an unknown poster with no listed qualifications and no ability to be sued if you provide bad advice.

Target date funds are better than you admit.  You insult bonds and international equities, because you only believe in U.S. equities.  Most books I've read on investment disagree with your perspective, and emphasize the need to diversify away from your home country, and to mix equities and bonds.

It has also been my experience that the number of people going 100% equities keeps climbing until we get a major crash.  After a major crash, those 100% equity advocates get much quieter.  I've been through a number of major crashes, which is why I advocate diversification.

https://www.investopedia.com/investing/importance-diversification/
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/diversification.asp
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/basics/05/diversification.asp
(et cetera)


Wolfpack Mustachian

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Re: Do investments in S&P 500 really double every ~7 years?
« Reply #52 on: June 12, 2024, 12:07:47 PM »
also being forced to default 35%+ into international is just asinine throwing returns away, no thanks I'd rather see gains
You're saying hundreds of billions of dollars invested at Vanguard, Schwab and Fidelity are all wrong?  If they screw over retirees they can be sued for it.  Compare that to you, an unknown poster with no listed qualifications and no ability to be sued if you provide bad advice.

Target date funds are better than you admit.  You insult bonds and international equities, because you only believe in U.S. equities.  Most books I've read on investment disagree with your perspective, and emphasize the need to diversify away from your home country, and to mix equities and bonds.

It has also been my experience that the number of people going 100% equities keeps climbing until we get a major crash.  After a major crash, those 100% equity advocates get much quieter.  I've been through a number of major crashes, which is why I advocate diversification.

https://www.investopedia.com/investing/importance-diversification/
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/diversification.asp
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/basics/05/diversification.asp
(et cetera)

I'm 100% equities, and I advocate it for pretty much everyone if they have a risk tolerance to not touch it when things go south. I've advocated it since I realized I was screwing things up, which has been probably close to two decades now, by trying to pick things myself and wasting a lot of time doing it. Of course some really enjoy digging in and paying close attention to the markets and can do some better thank my 100% equities and hold strategy. I just don't have confidence that I will be able to, nor do I want to put in the effort to try when I've already spent years trying and failing.

Now this is for the accumulation phase. When I start drawing down, I'll probably pay more attention. For now, I've done 100% equities for over fifteen years, and it's worked pretty dang well for me.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Do investments in S&P 500 really double every ~7 years?
« Reply #53 on: June 13, 2024, 01:03:07 AM »
Buying 15 years ago means you bought right after the last major crash.  You, and the people you're advising haven't been tested: we haven't had a major crash since the great financial crisis (*).

Everyone can hold 100% equities when the market only goes up.  Only when the next major crash occurs will we discover who can't handle 100% equities.

(*) S&P 500 rose +18% in 2020, doubling from 2019-2021.  In my opinion, people doubling their money isn't a stress test.

Wolfpack Mustachian

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Re: Do investments in S&P 500 really double every ~7 years?
« Reply #54 on: June 13, 2024, 06:38:16 AM »
Buying 15 years ago means you bought right after the last major crash.  You, and the people you're advising haven't been tested: we haven't had a major crash since the great financial crisis (*).

Everyone can hold 100% equities when the market only goes up.  Only when the next major crash occurs will we discover who can't handle 100% equities.

(*) S&P 500 rose +18% in 2020, doubling from 2019-2021.  In my opinion, people doubling their money isn't a stress test.

No arguments here about the last 15 years being great overall.

I mentioned that this latest round where I decided to invest solely in equities as a strategy has been for over 15 years. I've been seriously investing before 2008. I was actually 100% in equities to begin with because I just wanted to start investing and knew enough to know index funds were a good idea. After a bit, I thought that I could do better trying to pick things on my own. I did ok but realized that I would have made just as much or more with zero effort doing index funds, which I had started with.

If I'm reading you correctly, you mean stress test in terms of me being able to handle the stress of things going down significantly. If so, I did fine in the previous crash even being in 100% equities. My change was not because everything went down but because I was overconfident in my abilities. You mention the S&P rising during the most recent period overall and doubling during 19-21. That's true, but it doesn't change the fact that it did go down over 30% for a short period of time. I didn't know how much it was going down other than general news articles about it. I didn't know how much money I "lost" because I didn't look at it, and by this point, the 30% drop would have been a significant amount of money "lost" if I had been tracking it daily. I usually only look at it in my once a year spreadsheet updating times.

I would agree that more money can be made by doing things other than 100% equities. I would agree that you personally may be able to do that. I don't think many people can do it consistently. The reading I've done on sites such as ERN seem to indicate that 100% equities overall is as good if not better in most situations than having bonds as part of your portfolio. I just don't see any benefit for the average person (and vast majority of people) to not put things 100% in equities, and therefore, that is how I will advise people I know and care about to invest.

Overall, I feel pretty confident given my history that I can emotionally handle 100% equities. I've seen serious drops twice in my investing career. I'm confident that I don't have the skills necessary (nor do many) to try to do better than 100% equities, so of course I'm going to recommend to people investing to do 100% equities.

Must_ache

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Re: Do investments in S&P 500 really double every ~7 years?
« Reply #55 on: June 26, 2024, 09:59:52 AM »
They absolutely do not.
From Jan 2000 - Jan 2007 it went up +3%
From Jan 2007 - Jan 2014 it went up +24%

reeshau

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Re: Do investments in S&P 500 really double every ~7 years?
« Reply #56 on: June 26, 2024, 10:58:55 AM »
They absolutely do not.
From Jan 2000 - Jan 2007 it went up +3%
From Jan 2007 - Jan 2014 it went up +24%

There definitely are significant exceptions.  But the longer timeframe you look at, the closer it comes to the average.

solon

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Re: Do investments in S&P 500 really double every ~7 years?
« Reply #57 on: June 26, 2024, 11:05:15 AM »
They absolutely do not.
From Jan 2000 - Jan 2007 it went up +3%
From Jan 2007 - Jan 2014 it went up +24%

There definitely are significant exceptions.  But the longer timeframe you look at, the closer it comes to the average.

This is an important point though. There will be down years. It doesn't mean the strategy is flawed. In fact, the down years are a necessary component in the long-term average. This is the point people need to internalize in order to be successful investors.

reeshau

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Re: Do investments in S&P 500 really double every ~7 years?
« Reply #58 on: June 26, 2024, 11:44:52 AM »
They absolutely do not.
From Jan 2000 - Jan 2007 it went up +3%
From Jan 2007 - Jan 2014 it went up +24%

There definitely are significant exceptions.  But the longer timeframe you look at, the closer it comes to the average.

This is an important point though. There will be down years. It doesn't mean the strategy is flawed. In fact, the down years are a necessary component in the long-term average. This is the point people need to internalize in order to be successful investors.

In particular, it is the best time to be buying stocks.  Those who sell in a downturn, or who don't invest because things look troubled, forego the offsetting "good times."

josh4trunks

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Re: Do investments in S&P 500 really double every ~7 years?
« Reply #59 on: June 26, 2024, 02:30:50 PM »
target date funds are trash, wayy too heavy in bonds and international for anyone that's trying to build real wealth over time, most just default into it not knowing any better thinking it's the best standard or they can't mentally stomach short term volatility and rob themselves of returns over time

target date funds are like the Dave Ramsey of investments, helping the poor stay slightly less poor

Any specific reasons American's should not be too heavy in international stocks?
I personally just try to evenly weigh my portfolio, so about 50% USA and 50% international.

secondcor521

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Re: Do investments in S&P 500 really double every ~7 years?
« Reply #60 on: June 26, 2024, 08:04:35 PM »
target date funds are trash, wayy too heavy in bonds and international for anyone that's trying to build real wealth over time, most just default into it not knowing any better thinking it's the best standard or they can't mentally stomach short term volatility and rob themselves of returns over time

target date funds are like the Dave Ramsey of investments, helping the poor stay slightly less poor

Any specific reasons American's should not be too heavy in international stocks?
I personally just try to evenly weigh my portfolio, so about 50% USA and 50% international.

The standard argument is American exceptionalism.  I buy the argument but I suspect I am in the minority on this board in that respect.

ChpBstrd

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Re: Do investments in S&P 500 really double every ~7 years?
« Reply #61 on: June 27, 2024, 02:59:05 PM »
target date funds are trash, wayy too heavy in bonds and international for anyone that's trying to build real wealth over time, most just default into it not knowing any better thinking it's the best standard or they can't mentally stomach short term volatility and rob themselves of returns over time

target date funds are like the Dave Ramsey of investments, helping the poor stay slightly less poor
Any specific reasons American's should not be too heavy in international stocks?
I personally just try to evenly weigh my portfolio, so about 50% USA and 50% international.
The standard argument is American exceptionalism.  I buy the argument but I suspect I am in the minority on this board in that respect.
I actually buy the American exceptionalism argument, but in a dystopian way. The U.S. makes extreme tradeoffs to prioritize economic growth and the ability of equity owners to make large amounts of money. We accept extreme downsides in exchange for economic prioritization that other countries are unwilling to accept.

U.S. policy decisions such as low taxes, car-dependency, privatized healthcare, prescription drug monopolies, a lack of mental health or addiction care, over-use of disposable products, the standard American diet, wars every 10 years, etc. all reduce our quality of life, but generate lots of economic activity. Our cities are graceless moneymaking places, with six-lane stroads lined with billboards, chain restaurants, and retailers, each with huge parking lots scattered with fast-food trash, cigarette butts, and liquor bottles. Beggars with unaddressed addictions, mental health issues, or simply medical debt work most intersections now. Our houses are similarly graceless, and flimsily built, requiring remods or demolition every 20-40 years. Our life expectancy is reduced by all the time we spend on the road breathing carbon monoxide, nitrates, and carcinogenic soot, by the toxins we call food, by a lack of opportunities to walk or ride bikes, and by the violence of the people around us whose primary value is the acquisition of money and stuff.

All these decisions led to a highly productive labor force that must work extremely hard to manage oppressive debt loads that have become culturally normal. All these decisions opened up opportunities for business owners and stock holders to earn fortunes, even if their products make people's lives worse.

I might prefer to live in a country that bans billboards from blighting their cities and countrysides, that taxes rather than subsidizes petroleum products, that has public transportation and healthcare, that aggressively regulates the sale of harmful things, that does something to help their less fortunate, and that offers cleaner air and water.

However I would prefer to invest in the country where people are working like medieval serfs on a never ending treadmill of consumerism. The later country, basically a money-obsessed labor camp converting people's lives into dividends, will outproduce any country which tries to pursue the common good, even a little bit.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Do investments in S&P 500 really double every ~7 years?
« Reply #62 on: June 28, 2024, 02:04:17 AM »
Any specific reasons American's should not be too heavy in international stocks?
I personally just try to evenly weigh my portfolio, so about 50% USA and 50% international.
Many investors have "home country bias", favoring their country's stocks over others.  Your even split into U.S. and international reflects the rough proportion of the world, by market cap.

Several years ago, I had a portfolio that was:
1/3rd VTI : total U.S. stock market
1/3rd VXUS : total international
1/3rd VTEB : tax-exempt bonds (Federally, not state)

Years ago I read a Vanguard paper that says you get the most certain diversification with the first 1/5th in international, but the diversification benefit continues up to 2/5ths (of equities).

Captain Cactus

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Re: Do investments in S&P 500 really double every ~7 years?
« Reply #63 on: June 28, 2024, 05:30:48 AM »
I’ve gone the VTWAX route…perhaps I’m setting myself up for underperforming VTSAX by itself?  But I guess I’m going along the “can’t beat the market” theory, and I’m talking about the whole market just the US market.

@ChpBstrd i love your description of America.  Sad but true.

Psychstache

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Re: Do investments in S&P 500 really double every ~7 years?
« Reply #64 on: June 28, 2024, 06:39:07 AM »
target date funds are trash, wayy too heavy in bonds and international for anyone that's trying to build real wealth over time, most just default into it not knowing any better thinking it's the best standard or they can't mentally stomach short term volatility and rob themselves of returns over time

target date funds are like the Dave Ramsey of investments, helping the poor stay slightly less poor
Any specific reasons American's should not be too heavy in international stocks?
I personally just try to evenly weigh my portfolio, so about 50% USA and 50% international.
The standard argument is American exceptionalism.  I buy the argument but I suspect I am in the minority on this board in that respect.
I actually buy the American exceptionalism argument, but in a dystopian way. The U.S. makes extreme tradeoffs to prioritize economic growth and the ability of equity owners to make large amounts of money. We accept extreme downsides in exchange for economic prioritization that other countries are unwilling to accept.

Yeah, this is basically the conclusion I have come to. The fight between Capital and Labor in the US for the last 50 years has been like watching the Harlem Globetrotters vs the Generals. Weighting a portfolio to be US-centric is a bet that we will continue to prioritize GDP growth and quarterly profits over humanity, which feels like a high percentage bet.

J.P. MoreGains

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Re: Do investments in S&P 500 really double every ~7 years?
« Reply #65 on: July 01, 2024, 10:58:47 PM »
It can all seem dystopian but I think it's a game I can win now that I found all this info.

clarkfan1979

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Re: Do investments in S&P 500 really double every ~7 years?
« Reply #66 on: July 02, 2024, 07:44:40 AM »
Okay, good news and bad news.

Bad news: a little embarrasing but I stand corrected on my own investments. Turns out I have access to funds that aren't just listed on the website. Maybe because I work for government.

Good news: turns out the expense ration on these is better than I expected.

My 401k target 2045 is 0.07% . I could change this to a fund that tracks the MSCI Large Cap for 0.05% and I think I may do that. Turns out my 457b is Vanguard VTIVX with a 0.08% ratio. This I could change to Fidelity 500 FXAIX for a 0.02% expense ratio.

These were funds I could see after I logged in that I have access to. So basically I could go to those two new funds and lower the expense ratio and go all toward stocks. Either way the target funds I have aren't as high expense ratio as I thought just by looking at the website. Who would've though I have access to different funds?

More Bad News: The TIAA fund is high expense without a lot of other good options - this one I'll ask HR about. But I only may have another few months at this job and then I can roll it over.


@J.P. MoreGains  I have Colorado Pera as well. However, the custodian for my 401a changed from Voya to Empower two years ago. I have access to the last two years of performance with Empower. I don't have access to my performance the previous 3 years with Voya.






josh4trunks

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Re: Do investments in S&P 500 really double every ~7 years?
« Reply #67 on: July 02, 2024, 04:47:51 PM »
So, I split my portfolio 50% USA + 50% International because I am trying to roughly weight it by market cap, so that is intentional.

Ok, I agree the USA is exceptional in some ways, but shouldn't that be baked into the price? Doesn't the market seek to find and exploit inefficiency, so generally all stocks are an equal balance of expected return and risk? That's why I index in the first place to maximize diversity, while also keeping fees ultra low. So I don't really understand why an international index like VXUS will, over the long term, be destined to under perform VTI. In that case everyone would just sell VXUS to buy VTI, which would effectively balance the price so risk adjusted return is equal again.

josh4trunks

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Re: Do investments in S&P 500 really double every ~7 years?
« Reply #68 on: July 02, 2024, 05:11:07 PM »
While I agree the USA favors Corporation, at least we have the ability as individuals to take part in that labor/resource exploiting machine by buying stocks.

Oh course there are still moral issues with how a country decides policies. People not blessed with a high IQ or work ethic, may never really have an option to significantly buy into the market. Pensions / Social Security could be a solution, but it seems our country generally leans towards increased freedom, even if that means you can choose to blow your paycheck at a casino or on cigarettes. In the USA you pay a mean 24% taxes and can use the excess to buy a flat screen or finance an F-350, while in Scandinavia you pay 46% tax but get excellent healthcare and state funded time-off for have a child.

I think it comes down to USA's strong protestant roots, which seems to naturally lead towards libertarianism. God gave Adam and Eve the choice to eat the forbidden fruit, not treating them like babies and putting it behind a child-lock.

J.P. MoreGains

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Re: Do investments in S&P 500 really double every ~7 years?
« Reply #69 on: July 02, 2024, 05:58:16 PM »
@J.P. MoreGains  I have Colorado Pera as well. However, the custodian for my 401a changed from Voya to Empower two years ago. I have access to the last two years of performance with Empower. I don't have access to my performance the previous 3 years with Voya.

Yes, I think we would then have the same Empower options then. Fun fact - I used to live in Pueblo on Jackson near Abriendo. I really liked Pueblo.

mistymoney

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Re: Do investments in S&P 500 really double every ~7 years?
« Reply #70 on: July 02, 2024, 05:59:17 PM »
target date funds are trash, wayy too heavy in bonds and international for anyone that's trying to build real wealth over time, most just default into it not knowing any better thinking it's the best standard or they can't mentally stomach short term volatility and rob themselves of returns over time

target date funds are like the Dave Ramsey of investments, helping the poor stay slightly less poor
Any specific reasons American's should not be too heavy in international stocks?
I personally just try to evenly weigh my portfolio, so about 50% USA and 50% international.
The standard argument is American exceptionalism.  I buy the argument but I suspect I am in the minority on this board in that respect.
I actually buy the American exceptionalism argument, but in a dystopian way. The U.S. makes extreme tradeoffs to prioritize economic growth and the ability of equity owners to make large amounts of money. We accept extreme downsides in exchange for economic prioritization that other countries are unwilling to accept.

U.S. policy decisions such as low taxes, car-dependency, privatized healthcare, prescription drug monopolies, a lack of mental health or addiction care, over-use of disposable products, the standard American diet, wars every 10 years, etc. all reduce our quality of life, but generate lots of economic activity. Our cities are graceless moneymaking places, with six-lane stroads lined with billboards, chain restaurants, and retailers, each with huge parking lots scattered with fast-food trash, cigarette butts, and liquor bottles. Beggars with unaddressed addictions, mental health issues, or simply medical debt work most intersections now. Our houses are similarly graceless, and flimsily built, requiring remods or demolition every 20-40 years. Our life expectancy is reduced by all the time we spend on the road breathing carbon monoxide, nitrates, and carcinogenic soot, by the toxins we call food, by a lack of opportunities to walk or ride bikes, and by the violence of the people around us whose primary value is the acquisition of money and stuff.

All these decisions led to a highly productive labor force that must work extremely hard to manage oppressive debt loads that have become culturally normal. All these decisions opened up opportunities for business owners and stock holders to earn fortunes, even if their products make people's lives worse.

I might prefer to live in a country that bans billboards from blighting their cities and countrysides, that taxes rather than subsidizes petroleum products, that has public transportation and healthcare, that aggressively regulates the sale of harmful things, that does something to help their less fortunate, and that offers cleaner air and water.

However I would prefer to invest in the country where people are working like medieval serfs on a never ending treadmill of consumerism. The later country, basically a money-obsessed labor camp converting people's lives into dividends, will outproduce any country which tries to pursue the common good, even a little bit.

this is the saddest thing about america I've ever read, and I can't refute one thing.

J.P. MoreGains

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Re: Do investments in S&P 500 really double every ~7 years?
« Reply #71 on: July 02, 2024, 06:04:55 PM »
While I agree the USA favors Corporation, at least we have the ability as individuals to take part in that labor/resource exploiting machine by buying stocks.

Oh course there are still moral issues with how a country decides policies. People not blessed with a high IQ or work ethic, may never really have an option to significantly buy into the market. Pensions / Social Security could be a solution, but it seems our country generally leans towards increased freedom, even if that means you can choose to blow your paycheck at a casino or on cigarettes. In the USA you pay a mean 24% taxes and can use the excess to buy a flat screen or finance an F-350, while in Scandinavia you pay 46% tax but get excellent healthcare and state funded time-off for have a child.

I think it comes down to USA's strong protestant roots, which seems to naturally lead towards libertarianism. God gave Adam and Eve the choice to eat the forbidden fruit, not treating them like babies and putting it behind a child-lock.

Yeah, I'll take the USA game. Not a lot is guaranteed but there is opportunity. I'll take the opportunity and trade off the guaranteed. A lot of places in the world don't have the opportunity here or the the ability for pretty much anybody to get a job at least somewhere and start from there. I think that's why so many immigrants do so well... get a job and work hard and make some sacrifices.

People do spend a lot of their paycheck - but that is the choice. In this corner of the internet people working regular jobs are saving 50% of it. I just needed to find this corner of the internet and get permission do go and do this. It only takes 10 years which is great. I think it's a game I want to play.

Since I'm a new "convert" to this stuff I'm enthusiastic and wish I could tell my 18 year old self about this being possible.

josh4trunks

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Re: Do investments in S&P 500 really double every ~7 years?
« Reply #72 on: July 03, 2024, 12:44:56 PM »
target date funds are trash, wayy too heavy in bonds and international for anyone that's trying to build real wealth over time, most just default into it not knowing any better thinking it's the best standard or they can't mentally stomach short term volatility and rob themselves of returns over time

target date funds are like the Dave Ramsey of investments, helping the poor stay slightly less poor
Any specific reasons American's should not be too heavy in international stocks?
I personally just try to evenly weigh my portfolio, so about 50% USA and 50% international.
The standard argument is American exceptionalism.  I buy the argument but I suspect I am in the minority on this board in that respect.
I actually buy the American exceptionalism argument, but in a dystopian way. The U.S. makes extreme tradeoffs to prioritize economic growth and the ability of equity owners to make large amounts of money. We accept extreme downsides in exchange for economic prioritization that other countries are unwilling to accept.

U.S. policy decisions such as low taxes, car-dependency, privatized healthcare, prescription drug monopolies, a lack of mental health or addiction care, over-use of disposable products, the standard American diet, wars every 10 years, etc. all reduce our quality of life, but generate lots of economic activity. Our cities are graceless moneymaking places, with six-lane stroads lined with billboards, chain restaurants, and retailers, each with huge parking lots scattered with fast-food trash, cigarette butts, and liquor bottles. Beggars with unaddressed addictions, mental health issues, or simply medical debt work most intersections now. Our houses are similarly graceless, and flimsily built, requiring remods or demolition every 20-40 years. Our life expectancy is reduced by all the time we spend on the road breathing carbon monoxide, nitrates, and carcinogenic soot, by the toxins we call food, by a lack of opportunities to walk or ride bikes, and by the violence of the people around us whose primary value is the acquisition of money and stuff.

All these decisions led to a highly productive labor force that must work extremely hard to manage oppressive debt loads that have become culturally normal. All these decisions opened up opportunities for business owners and stock holders to earn fortunes, even if their products make people's lives worse.

I might prefer to live in a country that bans billboards from blighting their cities and countrysides, that taxes rather than subsidizes petroleum products, that has public transportation and healthcare, that aggressively regulates the sale of harmful things, that does something to help their less fortunate, and that offers cleaner air and water.

However I would prefer to invest in the country where people are working like medieval serfs on a never ending treadmill of consumerism. The later country, basically a money-obsessed labor camp converting people's lives into dividends, will outproduce any country which tries to pursue the common good, even a little bit.

this is the saddest thing about america I've ever read, and I can't refute one thing.

Well the concept of "common good" could definitely be argued about. In Communist Cuba, families were rationed a set amount of food. While in USA you could take most of your paycheck and blow it on whatever you feel like. Which is what drives our capitalist, consumer debt building machine.

Sorry for always bringing up Bible analogies but they give some useful examples. The prodigal son's father allowed him to take out his inheritance early and squander it.  Would the father been better to just give it out slowly, so he would have been forced to stick around and not be free to do whatever he wills.

I personally think we should protect children/elderly and those with special needs. But otherwise generally agree with the USA's typically libertarian stance. But it can go overboard, like when it starts labeling corporations people in order to give them rights; but I'm not versed enough in law to know why that was done.

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Re: Do investments in S&P 500 really double every ~7 years?
« Reply #73 on: July 03, 2024, 01:18:58 PM »
So, I split my portfolio 50% USA + 50% International because I am trying to roughly weight it by market cap, so that is intentional.
If you're going for market cap I believe the split should be 62/38 (USA/International) currently.

Wintergreen78

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Re: Do investments in S&P 500 really double every ~7 years?
« Reply #74 on: July 03, 2024, 01:27:07 PM »
I got curious, so I went to this site and played around with returns, including reinvested dividends. https://dqydj.com/sp-500-return-calculator/

June 2019 to June 2024: 102%
June 2013 to June 2019: 101%
April 2009 to June 2013: 108%
June 1995 to April 2009: 100%

So, about 4x in just under 30 years, or doubling about every 7.5 years on average. The shortest time is just over 4 years, the longest time is almost 14 years.

josh4trunks

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Re: Do investments in S&P 500 really double every ~7 years?
« Reply #75 on: July 03, 2024, 03:08:31 PM »
So, I split my portfolio 50% USA + 50% International because I am trying to roughly weight it by market cap, so that is intentional.
If you're going for market cap I believe the split should be 62/38 (USA/International) currently.

Wow, thanks for the info! I guess VTI has grown significantly more than VXUS since I first set my allocation in around 2018-19.

So now you got me curious. Starting from December 21, 2018 (cause it has easy to find that point on google, lol), VTI has grown 119%, while VXUS has grown 31%. I don't know if these number include dividend payouts? But assuming 50/50 split then, they should now be a 62.5/37.5 split!

So that leads me to a new question, do I reallocate based on this data? I have been rebalancing occasionally, like when I think about it once a year, since I made my allocation.
Typically, with stock/bond allocations you are supposed to rebalance so that you sell what did better and buy what did worse. A form of buy low, sell high.

If I had a set portfolio, and wasn't contributing I would probably just set the allocation once, then let winners win and losers lose. but since I am contributing, plus rebalancing occasionally, I wonder if I am shooting myself in the foot? Maybe I am actually better set for when VXUS makes a comeback?  IDK, I didn't think or plan for VTI and VXUS to diverge so much in the less than 1-decade I have been investing.
« Last Edit: July 03, 2024, 03:11:16 PM by josh4trunks »

EliteZags

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Re: Do investments in S&P 500 really double every ~7 years?
« Reply #76 on: July 08, 2024, 04:15:55 PM »
also being forced to default 35%+ into international is just asinine throwing returns away, no thanks I'd rather see gains
You're saying hundreds of billions of dollars invested at Vanguard, Schwab and Fidelity are all wrong?  If they screw over retirees they can be sued for it.  Compare that to you, an unknown poster with no listed qualifications and no ability to be sued if you provide bad advice.

Target date funds are better than you admit.  You insult bonds and international equities, because you only believe in U.S. equities.  Most books I've read on investment disagree with your perspective, and emphasize the need to diversify away from your home country, and to mix equities and bonds.

It has also been my experience that the number of people going 100% equities keeps climbing until we get a major crash.  After a major crash, those 100% equity advocates get much quieter.  I've been through a number of major crashes, which is why I advocate diversification.

https://www.investopedia.com/investing/importance-diversification/
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/diversification.asp
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/basics/05/diversification.asp
(et cetera)


yes they have to structure those funds to appease the psychologically weak minded masses that can't stomach short term volatility

generations have stayed poor from fear of risk/overexposure in the market

so go ahead keep throwing your returns away into bonds and international, the rest of us will be here making real $$$ on the economy long term





« Last Edit: July 08, 2024, 04:35:06 PM by EliteZags »

ChpBstrd

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Re: Do investments in S&P 500 really double every ~7 years?
« Reply #77 on: July 08, 2024, 08:24:14 PM »
also being forced to default 35%+ into international is just asinine throwing returns away, no thanks I'd rather see gains
You're saying hundreds of billions of dollars invested at Vanguard, Schwab and Fidelity are all wrong?  If they screw over retirees they can be sued for it.  Compare that to you, an unknown poster with no listed qualifications and no ability to be sued if you provide bad advice.

Target date funds are better than you admit.  You insult bonds and international equities, because you only believe in U.S. equities.  Most books I've read on investment disagree with your perspective, and emphasize the need to diversify away from your home country, and to mix equities and bonds.

It has also been my experience that the number of people going 100% equities keeps climbing until we get a major crash.  After a major crash, those 100% equity advocates get much quieter.  I've been through a number of major crashes, which is why I advocate diversification.

https://www.investopedia.com/investing/importance-diversification/
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/diversification.asp
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/basics/05/diversification.asp
(et cetera)


yes they have to structure those funds to appease the psychologically weak minded masses that can't stomach short term volatility

generations have stayed poor from fear of risk/overexposure in the market

so go ahead keep throwing your returns away into bonds and international, the rest of us will be here making real $$$ on the economy long term






The top is in!

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Do investments in S&P 500 really double every ~7 years?
« Reply #78 on: July 09, 2024, 01:51:51 AM »
also being forced to default 35%+ into international is just asinine throwing returns away, no thanks I'd rather see gains
You're saying hundreds of billions of dollars invested at Vanguard, Schwab and Fidelity are all wrong?  If they screw over retirees they can be sued for it.  Compare that to you, an unknown poster with no listed qualifications and no ability to be sued if you provide bad advice.

Target date funds are better than you admit.  You insult bonds and international equities, because you only believe in U.S. equities.  Most books I've read on investment disagree with your perspective, and emphasize the need to diversify away from your home country, and to mix equities and bonds.

It has also been my experience that the number of people going 100% equities keeps climbing until we get a major crash.  After a major crash, those 100% equity advocates get much quieter.  I've been through a number of major crashes, which is why I advocate diversification.

https://www.investopedia.com/investing/importance-diversification/
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/diversification.asp
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/basics/05/diversification.asp
(et cetera)


yes they have to structure those funds to appease the psychologically weak minded masses that can't stomach short term volatility

generations have stayed poor from fear of risk/overexposure in the market

so go ahead keep throwing your returns away into bonds and international, the rest of us will be here making real $$$ on the economy long term






Notice the lack of any actual counter argument.  A photo of someone holding $1000 in one-dollar bills isn't proof of anything.  I pointed to the reputations of Vanguard, Fidelity and Schwab and you tried to make it personal, to ignore the clear difference between their reputation and yours.

EliteZags

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Re: Do investments in S&P 500 really double every ~7 years?
« Reply #79 on: July 09, 2024, 11:34:24 AM »
for clarity that's a GIF of Johnny Manziel holding a money phone saying "I can't hear you.. there's too much money in my f--kin hand"  -not meant to prove anything



nothing personal, investment prosperity isn't for everyone


beating the market is not easy, beating target date funds absolutely is
« Last Edit: July 09, 2024, 10:41:26 PM by EliteZags »

ATtiny85

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Re: Do investments in S&P 500 really double every ~7 years?
« Reply #80 on: July 09, 2024, 01:01:03 PM »
I realized I can easily provide almost a data point.

In April 2018 I transferred my Roth IRA from TRP to Vanguard, $104,000. Put it all in VTSAX, a fund pretty close to SP500.

I have added $0 to it since then (thank you large Rollover IRA), all dividends set to reinvest. There was a 31 day pause in 2022 as I waited for some taxable TLH to clear wash sales.

As of yesterday, the balance is $231,000. So, it has more than doubled in less than 7 years. I scrolled back in the balances and it looks like it first doubled in around February of this year, so ~6 years.

Of course, it could easily de-double if the Top is in, which of course it is.

GuitarStv

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Re: Do investments in S&P 500 really double every ~7 years?
« Reply #81 on: July 09, 2024, 01:22:17 PM »
I actually buy the American exceptionalism argument, but in a dystopian way. The U.S. makes extreme tradeoffs to prioritize economic growth and the ability of equity owners to make large amounts of money. We accept extreme downsides in exchange for economic prioritization that other countries are unwilling to accept.

U.S. policy decisions such as low taxes, car-dependency, privatized healthcare, prescription drug monopolies, a lack of mental health or addiction care, over-use of disposable products, the standard American diet, wars every 10 years, etc. all reduce our quality of life, but generate lots of economic activity. Our cities are graceless moneymaking places, with six-lane stroads lined with billboards, chain restaurants, and retailers, each with huge parking lots scattered with fast-food trash, cigarette butts, and liquor bottles. Beggars with unaddressed addictions, mental health issues, or simply medical debt work most intersections now. Our houses are similarly graceless, and flimsily built, requiring remods or demolition every 20-40 years. Our life expectancy is reduced by all the time we spend on the road breathing carbon monoxide, nitrates, and carcinogenic soot, by the toxins we call food, by a lack of opportunities to walk or ride bikes, and by the violence of the people around us whose primary value is the acquisition of money and stuff.

All these decisions led to a highly productive labor force that must work extremely hard to manage oppressive debt loads that have become culturally normal. All these decisions opened up opportunities for business owners and stock holders to earn fortunes, even if their products make people's lives worse.

I might prefer to live in a country that bans billboards from blighting their cities and countrysides, that taxes rather than subsidizes petroleum products, that has public transportation and healthcare, that aggressively regulates the sale of harmful things, that does something to help their less fortunate, and that offers cleaner air and water.

However I would prefer to invest in the country where people are working like medieval serfs on a never ending treadmill of consumerism. The later country, basically a money-obsessed labor camp converting people's lives into dividends, will outproduce any country which tries to pursue the common good, even a little bit.

This is a pretty great post.

alienbogey

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Re: Do investments in S&P 500 really double every ~7 years?
« Reply #82 on: July 13, 2024, 11:25:56 PM »
Some observations and suggestions, FWIW:

•  We've been 100% equities for decades.  As a buy & hold investor I don't need any smoothing (and lowering) of my returns with bonds.  Furthermore, I believe that real inflation, or even hyperinflation, will eventually hit the U.S. when the bills come due, and then bondholders will be eviscerated.  Companies that make things and supply services, like Apple, will just raise the price of iPhones and subscriptions as required.  (Note:  I did hold a targeted retirement date fund for a few years, then came to the aforementioned realization and got out of it.)

•  I also feel no need to buy dedicated international funds or individual international stocks.  I'll ride the tide of the U.S. economy and get all the international exposure I need with Apple, Microsoft, etc through their own international operations.  (Note:  I did own an international fund for a few years, but then came to the aforementioned realization and got out of it.)

•  It's easier to say than to do but, as a long term investor, there is no need at all to suffer angst when the market goes down, even a lot.  First, realize that you haven't haven't actually lost anything - you still own the same number of shares as you did before the price dropped.  Second, rejoice, because your next 401k contribution (or whatever) will buy more shares than before, which is a really good thing, not a bad thing.

•  Then, when the market has an upswing, go ahead and update your spreadsheets and rejoice in your new, higher net worth.  Ignore the fact that your next investment will buy fewer shares than before.

In other words, look on the bright side of market ups AND downs, be happy both ways, and stay the course.

Again, FWIW.


Must_ache

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Re: Do investments in S&P 500 really double every ~7 years?
« Reply #83 on: July 15, 2024, 08:43:20 AM »
Our houses are similarly graceless, and flimsily built, requiring remods or demolition every 20-40 years.

You need to move out of the trailer park bro

Must_ache

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Re: Do investments in S&P 500 really double every ~7 years?
« Reply #84 on: July 15, 2024, 09:05:46 AM »
If you examine all the S&P 7-yr returns including dividends starting from 1926-2017, only 51 of the last 92 instances (55%) saw someone's money double or better.
The median increase over 7 yrs was +116.8%, an average annual return of 11.7%

3.75x-4.57x 03
3.50x-3.74x 02
3.25x-3.49x 02
3.00x-3.24x 08       
2.75x-2.99x 02
2.50x-2.74x 17
2.25x-2.49x 10
2.00x-2.24x 07
1.75x-1.99x 11
1.50x-1.74x 10
1.25x-1.49x 09
1.00x-1.24x 10
0.75x-0.99x 05

The 7-yr return ending 2023 was 2.414, which is the 59th percentile.  7-yr returns that did this well or better produced on average a 14% return the following year. 
« Last Edit: July 15, 2024, 09:17:07 AM by Must_ache »

J.P. MoreGains

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Re: Do investments in S&P 500 really double every ~7 years?
« Reply #85 on: July 16, 2024, 08:32:09 AM »
Some observations and suggestions, FWIW:

•  We've been 100% equities for decades.  As a buy & hold investor I don't need any smoothing (and lowering) of my returns with bonds.  Furthermore, I believe that real inflation, or even hyperinflation, will eventually hit the U.S. when the bills come due, and then bondholders will be eviscerated.  Companies that make things and supply services, like Apple, will just raise the price of iPhones and subscriptions as required.  (Note:  I did hold a targeted retirement date fund for a few years, then came to the aforementioned realization and got out of it.)

•  I also feel no need to buy dedicated international funds or individual international stocks.  I'll ride the tide of the U.S. economy and get all the international exposure I need with Apple, Microsoft, etc through their own international operations.  (Note:  I did own an international fund for a few years, but then came to the aforementioned realization and got out of it.)

•  It's easier to say than to do but, as a long term investor, there is no need at all to suffer angst when the market goes down, even a lot.  First, realize that you haven't haven't actually lost anything - you still own the same number of shares as you did before the price dropped.  Second, rejoice, because your next 401k contribution (or whatever) will buy more shares than before, which is a really good thing, not a bad thing.

•  Then, when the market has an upswing, go ahead and update your spreadsheets and rejoice in your new, higher net worth.  Ignore the fact that your next investment will buy fewer shares than before.

In other words, look on the bright side of market ups AND downs, be happy both ways, and stay the course.

Again, FWIW.

I think I'm still prepping for the first drop. It's kind of exciting since I'm just seeing my balance go up for now... 89k in 10 months feels great. But the inevitable drop will come and I need to be ready.

So that is why the long term perspective is needed. I heard a decent podcast with the argument of not holding international funds because of the fees and because of the international exposure of the largest US companies. Definitely an argument can be made for that.

I think your first bullet point is something I'm concerned about.

Being long term investor and also being so mimimalist/not needing a lot to live off of... I do think it could make sense for me to go for all equities and no bonds and just accept the risk. I mean in normal months without travel I live off of like $1,250 a month. I'll even be reducing that some over the next months.

So part of me thinks to just accept extra risk since my lifestyle is easy to maintain. I would just have to accept a big drop when it happens and stick with it for the long haul.

dandarc

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Re: Do investments in S&P 500 really double every ~7 years?
« Reply #86 on: July 16, 2024, 01:08:41 PM »
On international stocks - Do you really want to own Ford and not Toyota?

EliteZags

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Re: Do investments in S&P 500 really double every ~7 years?
« Reply #87 on: July 16, 2024, 04:02:35 PM »
On international stocks - Do you really want to own Ford and not Toyota?

I like gains so I own Tesla

dandarc

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Re: Do investments in S&P 500 really double every ~7 years?
« Reply #88 on: July 16, 2024, 04:10:48 PM »
On international stocks - Do you really want to own Ford and not Toyota?

I like gains so I own Tesla
I do too. Because I buy the indexes and therefore own basically every publicly traded company of note in the world.

RWD

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Re: Do investments in S&P 500 really double every ~7 years?
« Reply #89 on: July 16, 2024, 04:17:16 PM »
On international stocks - Do you really want to own Ford and not Toyota?
I like gains so I own Tesla
I do too. Because I buy the indexes and therefore own basically every publicly traded company of note in the world.
TSLA is down 11.7% in the last year and 37% since peak. I think you chose wisely.

EliteZags

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Re: Do investments in S&P 500 really double every ~7 years?
« Reply #90 on: July 16, 2024, 04:41:47 PM »
On international stocks - Do you really want to own Ford and not Toyota?
I like gains so I own Tesla
I do too. Because I buy the indexes and therefore own basically every publicly traded company of note in the world.
TSLA is down 11.7% in the last year and 37% since peak. I think you chose wisely.

no one show him the 5yr

RWD

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Re: Do investments in S&P 500 really double every ~7 years?
« Reply #91 on: July 16, 2024, 05:03:46 PM »
On international stocks - Do you really want to own Ford and not Toyota?
I like gains so I own Tesla
I do too. Because I buy the indexes and therefore own basically every publicly traded company of note in the world.
TSLA is down 11.7% in the last year and 37% since peak. I think you chose wisely.

no one show him the 5yr

Hell of a rollercoaster

Telecaster

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Re: Do investments in S&P 500 really double every ~7 years?
« Reply #92 on: July 16, 2024, 05:38:51 PM »
no one show him the 5yr

Show me the five year for the next five years.  That's all I care about. 

EliteZags

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Re: Do investments in S&P 500 really double every ~7 years?
« Reply #93 on: July 16, 2024, 10:01:50 PM »
up on every share I've ever purchased, that's all I care about

same with PLTR

GilesMM

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Re: Do investments in S&P 500 really double every ~7 years?
« Reply #94 on: July 16, 2024, 11:42:42 PM »
On international stocks - Do you really want to own Ford and not Toyota?


Neither qualifies as international stock unless you are buying them on a foreign exchange. Both are listed on the NYC and both have business globally, like just about every other major company on the Dow.  So you are actually get a lot of exposure to economies outside the US just by buying VTSAX.  And chill.

Telecaster

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Re: Do investments in S&P 500 really double every ~7 years?
« Reply #95 on: July 17, 2024, 12:51:26 AM »
up on every share I've ever purchased, that's all I care about

same with PLTR

It must be awesome having such intense powers of hindsight.  I wonder why no one else can see the past as keenly as you do? 

dandarc

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Re: Do investments in S&P 500 really double every ~7 years?
« Reply #96 on: July 17, 2024, 07:17:42 AM »
On international stocks - Do you really want to own Ford and not Toyota?


Neither qualifies as international stock unless you are buying them on a foreign exchange. Both are listed on the NYC and both have business globally, like just about every other major company on the Dow.  So you are actually get a lot of exposure to economies outside the US just by buying VTSAX.  And chill.
VTI holds Ford, VXUS holds Toyota. QED.

Guess I messed up by not quoting the post I was responding to "podcast says fees + international exposure of US companies means you don't need international funds". Was the post immediately before mine.

reeshau

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Re: Do investments in S&P 500 really double every ~7 years?
« Reply #97 on: July 17, 2024, 08:09:51 AM »
up on every share I've ever purchased, that's all I care about

same with PLTR

It must be awesome having such intense powers of hindsight.  I wonder why no one else can see the past as keenly as you do?

Joel Tillinghast, long-time manager of the Fidelity Low-Priced Stock Fund, which outperformed the market by 3% annually during his almost 30 years, put his winning percentage at 55%.

Annie Duke, world-class poker player and psychologist, estimated her winning percentage at 55%.

Andre Agassi won 55% of the points he played in tennis.  This led to winning 80% of his matches, and his championship legacy.

Judging yourself on a scale similar to school will get you frustrated.  In the real world, very small edges lead to excellence.

GilesMM

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Re: Do investments in S&P 500 really double every ~7 years?
« Reply #98 on: July 17, 2024, 12:52:30 PM »
up on every share I've ever purchased, that's all I care about

same with PLTR

It must be awesome having such intense powers of hindsight.  I wonder why no one else can see the past as keenly as you do?

Joel Tillinghast, long-time manager of the Fidelity Low-Priced Stock Fund, which outperformed the market by 3% annually during his almost 30 years, put his winning percentage at 55%.

Annie Duke, world-class poker player and psychologist, estimated her winning percentage at 55%.

Andre Agassi won 55% of the points he played in tennis.  This led to winning 80% of his matches, and his championship legacy.

Judging yourself on a scale similar to school will get you frustrated.  In the real world, very small edges lead to excellence.


Casinos do quite well with odds in their favor under 2% differential. It just takes volume.

dandarc

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Re: Do investments in S&P 500 really double every ~7 years?
« Reply #99 on: July 17, 2024, 01:19:38 PM »
up on every share I've ever purchased, that's all I care about

same with PLTR

It must be awesome having such intense powers of hindsight.  I wonder why no one else can see the past as keenly as you do?

Joel Tillinghast, long-time manager of the Fidelity Low-Priced Stock Fund, which outperformed the market by 3% annually during his almost 30 years, put his winning percentage at 55%.

Annie Duke, world-class poker player and psychologist, estimated her winning percentage at 55%.

Andre Agassi won 55% of the points he played in tennis.  This led to winning 80% of his matches, and his championship legacy.

Judging yourself on a scale similar to school will get you frustrated.  In the real world, very small edges lead to excellence.


Casinos do quite well with odds in their favor under 2% differential. It just takes volume.
And that's where it starts to get difficult with investing - volume. You can easily win (or lose) one trade or pick or gamble. But to get to the thousands of data points needed to distinguish from luck, how many individuals have the resources and time to figure that out reasonably early in their investing career?