Author Topic: Dividends do not matter  (Read 7531 times)

Car Jack

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Re: Dividends do not matter
« Reply #50 on: February 22, 2019, 07:18:18 AM »
Some facts.  Berkshire Hathaway has never paid a dividend.  If you invest in a taxable account in a fund or stock that pays dividends, there's no way around it....you're paying taxes on some part of your investment every single year.  If instead, you are in a non-dividend paying stock, you pay nothing, zero, nada until you sell the non-dividend paying stock.  Thus, if you're working a strategy to place income in a particular year or avoid income in another year for tax reasons, you cannot do that with the dividend paying stock or fund but can easily do it with the non-dividend paying stock.

Sure, but that's a terrible reason to choose an investment.  I also can't optimize my tax basis if I take a job and earn a paycheck, but sometimes working for a living is the most profitable thing you can do anyways, tax consequences be damned.

And just as a point of clarification, it is very possible to pay zero taxes on dividends.  Just be sure they're qualified dividends so they get the capital gains tax rate, and then keep your income in the 0% LTCG bracket.  That's almost $80,000 per year in tax-free dividend space if you're MFJ.

I agree with some of what you're saying.  I think we can both laugh together about staying in the 0% LTCG bracket.  I don't even know how to go to my employer and tell them "Hey, I want to have no cap gains tax, so can you just take a hundred grand back from my pay and bonuses?".

In Taxable (only), this is glaringly obvious to me because I get dividend statements.  I tend to put money in as I get it throughout the year, so there will always be some unqualified dividends along with qualified.  I use SCHB at Schwab (US broad market, which is pretty much large cap stocks).  I bought some BRK/b as an experiment and to force myself to watch it.  The 2 follow each other pretty well, with SCHB re-investing dividends.  So at the end of the year (or like right now, where I'm about to do my taxes), the dividends on SCHB are here to roost and I'll be paying my taxes.  But BRK/b is sitting there saying "dividends?  What dividends?  You don't need to pay no stinkin' taxes". 

Yes, I'm very aware that I'm talking about a scary, single company stock.  And no, I don't recommend doing this as a substitute for stock index allocation, but it's probably the best choice if one wants a stock that itself is very invested in a diversified portfolio. 

So the point of all of this is simply.....if you get dividends, you pay taxes (at least in my tax bracket, I sure do).  With BRK/b or any other non-dividend paying stock, you pay zero taxes.  That's all I'm saying.  It's something that many dividend focused people don't even consider.

Boofinator

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Re: Dividends do not matter
« Reply #51 on: February 22, 2019, 07:30:16 AM »
Some facts.  Berkshire Hathaway has never paid a dividend.  If you invest in a taxable account in a fund or stock that pays dividends, there's no way around it....you're paying taxes on some part of your investment every single year.  If instead, you are in a non-dividend paying stock, you pay nothing, zero, nada until you sell the non-dividend paying stock.  Thus, if you're working a strategy to place income in a particular year or avoid income in another year for tax reasons, you cannot do that with the dividend paying stock or fund but can easily do it with the non-dividend paying stock.

Sure, but that's a terrible reason to choose an investment.  I also can't optimize my tax basis if I take a job and earn a paycheck, but sometimes working for a living is the most profitable thing you can do anyways, tax consequences be damned.

And just as a point of clarification, it is very possible to pay zero taxes on dividends.  Just be sure they're qualified dividends so they get the capital gains tax rate, and then keep your income in the 0% LTCG bracket.  That's almost $80,000 per year in tax-free dividend space if you're MFJ.

I agree with some of what you're saying.  I think we can both laugh together about staying in the 0% LTCG bracket.  I don't even know how to go to my employer and tell them "Hey, I want to have no cap gains tax, so can you just take a hundred grand back from my pay and bonuses?".

In Taxable (only), this is glaringly obvious to me because I get dividend statements.  I tend to put money in as I get it throughout the year, so there will always be some unqualified dividends along with qualified.  I use SCHB at Schwab (US broad market, which is pretty much large cap stocks).  I bought some BRK/b as an experiment and to force myself to watch it.  The 2 follow each other pretty well, with SCHB re-investing dividends.  So at the end of the year (or like right now, where I'm about to do my taxes), the dividends on SCHB are here to roost and I'll be paying my taxes.  But BRK/b is sitting there saying "dividends?  What dividends?  You don't need to pay no stinkin' taxes". 

Yes, I'm very aware that I'm talking about a scary, single company stock.  And no, I don't recommend doing this as a substitute for stock index allocation, but it's probably the best choice if one wants a stock that itself is very invested in a diversified portfolio. 

So the point of all of this is simply.....if you get dividends, you pay taxes (at least in my tax bracket, I sure do).  With BRK/b or any other non-dividend paying stock, you pay zero taxes.  That's all I'm saying.  It's something that many dividend focused people don't even consider.

This is a good point, and to be clear the dividend tax drag is the dividend rate times the tax bracket (for most workers here the tax bracket is probably 15%). For all the work we do to minimize expense ratios (0.05% is waaay too high), some would choose to pay an extra 0.3% or so just to get more dividends.

jim555

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Re: Dividends do not matter
« Reply #52 on: February 22, 2019, 07:31:04 AM »
If the dividends are qualified then taxes won't be a problem for most people, only high income people will have to worry about it.

Stimpy

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Re: Dividends do not matter
« Reply #53 on: February 22, 2019, 10:57:07 AM »
Some companies absolutely should be reinvesting in their business and NOT paying a dividend, no argument from me, but lets take KO.   Raised its current dividend 56 years in a row and one of about 130ish companies that have done so for 25 years or more.   They know the cost to make a new beverage, and have more then enough income to play around a little.   Do you think investing more money into a drink will produce more income?  I'll bet they have tried that, and I'll bet the answer is NO.

KO is an interesting case.   For decades their business model as just as you suggest.   They had a fairly small number of products that had a dedicated following and they simply printed money.    However, that trend has reversed in recent years and on a global scale too.  People aren't nearly as interested in sugary drinks anymore and want other options.  That has forced KO to come up with a variety of new products, like Odwalla, Costa Coffee, Vitamin Water, etc.   Each of those new products has new production, marketing, and distribution challenges, and accordingly higher costs.

The result is revenues have been declining for about a decade, but dividends and the share price have been increasing.   That has every sign that something Not Good is going to happen.   I'm not expert enough in the beverage business to know what KO should do, but you could point to the long slide in revenues and make a good argument they aren't investing enough in the business.   

Mostly agree with you analysis on KO, I only used it as an example as it's the quickest one to write up to prove my point.  There are other examples out there, about 130 of them actually, some of those being much better examples then KO but I am not as familiar with them as I am with KO.


Wouldn't dividend investors be more likely to invest in non US stocks as those tend to have a higher yield?These are less likely to be qualified.

Depends on multiple factors including international taxes cause you tend to pay those no matter what.  Not even a non-taxable account can save you.  There is also lots of risk anytime you have a High Yield stock doesn't matter whether it is US or International.   Kinda the same for High Yield bonds, your hoping nothing explodes before you get your moneys worth.  Best example I can come up with right now is ATT (T).  Highest indebted company out there, and a VERY high Yield.  My analysis (and many others) is it's fine, unless they mess up, even a little bit then, well... Bu-bye Dividend and probably your investment.

Those high yielding stocks are often temping for new dividend investors which (despite what I am writing here) is why I more often then not, tell people to buy ETFs, and if you want to do stocks, learn about stock investing, specifically value stock investing first.

...

There is no top. Markets are efficient. Companies shouldn't market time and neither should you. And long term capital gains tax upon liquidation is much more preferable to the consistant yeary tax drag of dividends. This is true due to the math of compounding as well as the fact that some dividends are taxed as income, especially if you are internationally diversified.

Correct, markets are efficient, but that does not automatically translate to buy backs being efficient.  A single company may be HIGHLY overvalued at the time of a buy back, or it could be HIGHLY undervalued.  Which again does not necessarily translate easily to top and bottom of the stocks price.  From what I have seen, many companies do major buy backs when their company is overvalued and thus do not get the value of the buyback that they should, thus costing them value.

As for the tax drag, that depends on many factors such as qualified/un-qualified dividends, the tax ability of your account and your tax bracket.  (Might be some other factors in there but those are the ones that come to mind.)

I won't disagree that if you have dividends in a taxable account that you will pay a small price.  BUT if you are also doing DRIP (Dividend Reinvestment Plan which is automatic in a lot of accounts, including vanguard) you should be buying more of the stock, more dividends and more appreciation from your stock compounding your buying power and increasing your wealth without you having to lift a finger.  What ever taxes your paying will basically become nullified by the power of compounding interest. 

One last point on taxes, I assume you have a savings account/cd/some form of interest bearing item for your emergency fund right? (Also assuming your trying to get the MOST bang from your interest and not using a .001% HIGH interest Wells Fargo account.  (Sorry that what I had for a bit and that was when most regular savings accounts were at 1%!))  Do you get mad that you have to pay taxes on that interest?   It's the same concept.  Your being paid to do NOTHING, though I won't deny stocks have more risky over savings accounts.  But we aren't arguing that.

I did not bring up non-taxable accounts, because duh, no taxes.  Not sure I can say anything more there....


Some basic facts: If a stock pay a dividend the price drops by that amount on that day.   To find out when a stock payed a dividend, obviously look at the chart.... Oh wait, you can't see where it took place?  Funny since the stock drops, you'd think you see that, except Mr Market tends to not have a straight value on any single day, so while you can make charts that show that hey, if the dividend hadn't been payed the stock would have gone up another 300%, the truth of the matter is, it might be the same price as it is today.  Why, cause Mr Market is a honey badger and don't give a dam!

The same forces that move prices up and down all day still act upon the shares at the same time the price drops from going ex-dividend.

Not sure if we are agreeing or disagreeing here.

Big Investment Company Inc. decided to buy 20,000 shares at 2.00 above closing price in the morning.   Lets say closing price was 20 dollars.  BUT the dividend was 1 dollar so tomorrows opening price is 19.   Guess who buys 20,000 shares at 22.00.....   Did that price drop at the start of the day effect the price?  No way to actually tell.
They ONLY way to know would be to have 2 companies trading at the exact same time, one with a dividend and one without.  IF we make the assumption that all market orders are efficient and the same for both I assume the graphs will look the exact same, but again no way to tell.

Also, as has been stated a million times, the market is efficient.  Wouldn't that mean that traders/investors have already taken into account the dividend before the mandatory price drop?  (Food for thought....)
« Last Edit: February 22, 2019, 10:59:50 AM by stimepy »

Boofinator

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Re: Dividends do not matter
« Reply #54 on: February 22, 2019, 11:13:29 AM »
Big Investment Company Inc. decided to buy 20,000 shares at 2.00 above closing price in the morning.   Lets say closing price was 20 dollars.  BUT the dividend was 1 dollar so tomorrows opening price is 19.   Guess who buys 20,000 shares at 22.00.....   Did that price drop at the start of the day effect the price?  No way to actually tell.
They ONLY way to know would be to have 2 companies trading at the exact same time, one with a dividend and one without.  IF we make the assumption that all market orders are efficient and the same for both I assume the graphs will look the exact same, but again no way to tell.

I know this isn't directed at me, but I believe you are misunderstanding the concept. If a purchaser buys a stock before the ex-dividend date, they receive the stock plus the dividend. If they buy after the ex-dividend date, they receive just the stock. Is someone going to pay more for the former or latter (everything else being equal)? This is why market prices for stocks tend to go down immediately after the ex-dividend date (though as noted, the drops are sometimes hard to see through the noise of other factors). If we were to go under the assumption this were not the case, then arbitragers would be all over it until it became the case.

Also, as has been stated a million times, the market is efficient.  Wouldn't that mean that traders/investors have already taken into account the dividend before the mandatory price drop?  (Food for thought....)

The price drop is the result of market efficiencies. The market price for the stocks includes the dividend payment if bought before the ex-dividend date, but doesn't include the dividend if bought after.

Stimpy

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Re: Dividends do not matter
« Reply #55 on: February 22, 2019, 11:26:40 AM »
...
I know this isn't directed at me, but I believe you are misunderstanding the concept. If a purchaser buys a stock before the ex-dividend date, they receive the stock plus the dividend. If they buy after the ex-dividend date, they receive just the stock. Is someone going to pay more for the former or latter (everything else being equal)? This is why market prices for stocks tend to go down immediately after the ex-dividend date (though as noted, the drops are sometimes hard to see through the noise of other factors). If we were to go under the assumption this were not the case, then arbitragers would be all over it until it became the case.

You are correct on the ex-div date but I did not say that the company payed it, I said the dividend effected opening price.  That would be the ex-div date.   As for the price drop, as Stated, did it?  Can you prove the price actually drops?  As stated in the scenario, the company still paid 22.00 for a company first thing in the morning even though the open price was 19.  Are you saying that maybe they should have paid 23 if there was no dividend?  Maybe but again, I disagree, they made the decision based on what their value formulas told them and that was 22.   That formula(which probably cost millions to develop) should have ALREADY accounted for the dividend before the price drop the next day.  Thus market was ALREADY efficient before the mandatory price drop.

But believe what you want.

ChpBstrd

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Re: Dividends do not matter
« Reply #56 on: February 22, 2019, 11:37:21 AM »
Some basic facts: If a stock pay a dividend the price drops by that amount on that day.   To find out when a stock payed a dividend, obviously look at the chart.... Oh wait, you can't see where it took place?  Funny since the stock drops, you'd think you see that, except Mr Market tends to not have a straight value on any single day, so while you can make charts that show that hey, if the dividend hadn't been payed the stock would have gone up another 300%, the truth of the matter is, it might be the same price as it is today.  Why, cause Mr Market is a honey badger and don't give a dam!

The same forces that move prices up and down all day still act upon the shares at the same time the price drops from going ex-dividend.

In other words, the noise is overwhelming the signal. If you average enough stock prices around the dividend date, the signal would become apparent at some point.
...otherwise, there would be an unexploited arbitrage opportunity to take on leverage and trade shares or options around the ex-dividend date and capitalize on the inevitable price movement. Similaly, there is no special opportunity to do the reverse of this trade and buy stocks on their ex dividend date, collect the dividend, and exit the position the next day, rotating from stock to stock each day/week to collect as many dividends as possible with a limited amount of funds. Each of these trading strategies would yield something less than buy and hold over the long term. The first strategy would miss dividends plus capital gains during its days out of the market. The second would miss capital gains during its days out of the market. Do some spreadsheet analysis on a 10-20y timeframe if you doubt this.

The fact that there is no such consistent opportunity suggests that markets are efficient and traders are using discounted cash flow analysis on expected earnings over a long timeframe to set the prices they are willing to pay. If you were doing DCF on a spreadsheet, the completion of a quarterly earnings period, which includes any dividend paid out of retained earnings, would both remove one cash flow from your spreadsheet and add another further out cash flow. I.e. You would simultaneously remove last quarter's earnings and add the following quarter 10 years from now, so that you are still analyzing the same duration of time. Also, the amount of discount applied to each future earning flow on your spreadsheet is reduced as time passes and each future earnings flow gets closer. The addition of future cash flows and the steady adjustment of discounts offsets the steady removal of earnings as they happen.

TLDR: If you consider this explanation TLDR or unconvincing, try day trading around ex-dividend dates. I suggest NLY which yields 12% so it must be a good deal. Probably no one has thought of this and NLY is such a bargain (12% = ROI!) because nobody noticed. ;)

Boofinator

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Re: Dividends do not matter
« Reply #57 on: February 22, 2019, 01:05:32 PM »
...
I know this isn't directed at me, but I believe you are misunderstanding the concept. If a purchaser buys a stock before the ex-dividend date, they receive the stock plus the dividend. If they buy after the ex-dividend date, they receive just the stock. Is someone going to pay more for the former or latter (everything else being equal)? This is why market prices for stocks tend to go down immediately after the ex-dividend date (though as noted, the drops are sometimes hard to see through the noise of other factors). If we were to go under the assumption this were not the case, then arbitragers would be all over it until it became the case.

You are correct on the ex-div date but I did not say that the company payed it, I said the dividend effected opening price.  That would be the ex-div date.   As for the price drop, as Stated, did it?  Can you prove the price actually drops?  As stated in the scenario, the company still paid 22.00 for a company first thing in the morning even though the open price was 19.  Are you saying that maybe they should have paid 23 if there was no dividend?  Maybe but again, I disagree, they made the decision based on what their value formulas told them and that was 22.   That formula(which probably cost millions to develop) should have ALREADY accounted for the dividend before the price drop the next day.  Thus market was ALREADY efficient before the mandatory price drop.

But believe what you want.

In the case of a company being bought out, I think round numbers are more attractive and hence tend to be used more often when buying out companies (when the price per share is high enough). Even so, in your hypothetical example, if we assume the company was paying 4% dividends (which is on the higher end), then they would have offered $22.22 (assuming a quarterly dividend), not $23 as you suggest.

By the way, why do you keep mentioning a "mandatory" price drop? No such thing exists as far as I am aware of. The drop is a natural process, because the company is inherently now worth less.

Stimpy

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Re: Dividends do not matter
« Reply #58 on: February 22, 2019, 03:21:51 PM »
Some basic facts: If a stock pay a dividend the price drops by that amount on that day.   To find out when a stock payed a dividend, obviously look at the chart.... Oh wait, you can't see where it took place?  Funny since the stock drops, you'd think you see that, except Mr Market tends to not have a straight value on any single day, so while you can make charts that show that hey, if the dividend hadn't been payed the stock would have gone up another 300%, the truth of the matter is, it might be the same price as it is today.  Why, cause Mr Market is a honey badger and don't give a dam!

The same forces that move prices up and down all day still act upon the shares at the same time the price drops from going ex-dividend.

In other words, the noise is overwhelming the signal. If you average enough stock prices around the dividend date, the signal would become apparent at some point.
...otherwise, there would be an unexploited arbitrage opportunity to take on leverage and trade shares or options around the ex-dividend date and capitalize on the inevitable price movement. Similaly, there is no special opportunity to do the reverse of this trade and buy stocks on their ex dividend date, collect the dividend, and exit the position the next day, rotating from stock to stock each day/week to collect as many dividends as possible with a limited amount of funds. Each of these trading strategies would yield something less than buy and hold over the long term. The first strategy would miss dividends plus capital gains during its days out of the market. The second would miss capital gains during its days out of the market. Do some spreadsheet analysis on a 10-20y timeframe if you doubt this.

The fact that there is no such consistent opportunity suggests that markets are efficient and traders are using discounted cash flow analysis on expected earnings over a long timeframe to set the prices they are willing to pay. If you were doing DCF on a spreadsheet, the completion of a quarterly earnings period, which includes any dividend paid out of retained earnings, would both remove one cash flow from your spreadsheet and add another further out cash flow. I.e. You would simultaneously remove last quarter's earnings and add the following quarter 10 years from now, so that you are still analyzing the same duration of time. Also, the amount of discount applied to each future earning flow on your spreadsheet is reduced as time passes and each future earnings flow gets closer. The addition of future cash flows and the steady adjustment of discounts offsets the steady removal of earnings as they happen.

TLDR: If you consider this explanation TLDR or unconvincing, try day trading around ex-dividend dates. I suggest NLY which yields 12% so it must be a good deal. Probably no one has thought of this and NLY is such a bargain (12% = ROI!) because nobody noticed. ;)

So first off, there IS a strategy to capture dividends on the ex-div day and sell the next.   It is a thing and apparently some people make a profit that way.  It is not a thing I do or recommend due to the inherent volatility and high taxes that are involved.  Your welcome to try your luck on NLY though!

As for your next part, you are proving my point, with this.... Thanks.  BUT this also this made me take a step back and realize I do need to restate 1 part, not because it's wrong, but the way it's stated is poorly done, and that was this part (Hopefully I can be clearer if not.... I tired? ):

Quote
  So while you can make charts that show that hey, if the dividend hadn't been payed the stock would have gone up another 300%, the truth of the matter is, it might be the same price as it is today.

I absolutely think that those particular "stock would have gone up _______%" charts are crap, and INCORRECT.  As stated, market is efficient, the dividend is accounted for, before the mandatory price drop.  Yes, it's NOT an optional price drop.  It happens every time and it's not resetting value, not now valuing the company less, or anything else, that value has already been figured by the time the ex-div rolls around by those buying the stock.  The only exceptions MIGHT be if they announcement day and the ex-div day are next to each other (ie I announce at 4pm or after for ex-div next day and yes that happens.)

I WILL say that at some point in the past not sure exactly when, that DID have an impact and WAS useful.  Now, no so much, it's something that needs to go away.  (rambling slightly, trying to get off the soap box)

Anyway,  the value however that was determined is where the stock begins trading (or trading around due to volatility), and sure, it's value is determined to have dropped, but to phrase it in the most ridiculous way possible:  What Would The Company Do With It?
Your answer, reinvest it in another business.  Like Verizon investing in Yahoo.....  (It's a mess by the way)
Or ATT investing in Direct TV  (crash and burn anyone)
or... I could continue with other bad business choices, but I don't think I need to.  I'll admit right now, all the companies I am mentioning are Dividend companies BUT that's what I know, so I am using what I know, and I know they are JUST like any other company that doesn't pay a dividend.  If they make a bad business decision, value goes down, end of story.

My point, IS that the dividend is NOT the factor that will drive the value down or the factor that will drive it up, as we cannot say that just because a business is reinvesting it's cash in itself does not automatically equal a greater valued company.  So saying if they had kept the cash or reinvested it in themselves does not mean the price will go up.  In could in fact tank.   So don't assume that if a company didn't pay a dividend that automatically means it's giving away value.  It might very well be earning value just by doing so.  (ie NOT buying bad idea inc. and killing your company in the process.)

Of course we could look at Apple (Extreme cash hording).  Tons of cash sitting there.  Tons of value.  And the cash is doing..... nothing?  How many of people think that is a good idea???  (If you raise your hand I WILL knock you on the head with a paper airplane!)  (Granted they now HAVE a dividend but that's not the point!)

Either way, dividends matter.  The value of the company can literally depend

As a side note from me, not trying to convince anyone to invest in single stocks OR dividend paying ETFs.  If you have a strategy that is working for you, stick to it and for this board that is mostly ETFs.

lowroller4111

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Re: Dividends do not matter
« Reply #59 on: February 22, 2019, 03:53:10 PM »
Excessive dividends are NOT desirable... they create tax drag and your dividend is coming out of the NAV of the stock.  It's preferable for as much of the dividend to be retained within the NAV without tax consequences.  Unfortunately dividends are the most poorly understood concept among investors... so many people think just because a company is giving away dividends it's great as they think it's "free" money.. well, there is no free lunch, it's all coming out of your growth and you have to pay taxes on it to boot.  Nope, there could be all sorts of ominous reasons for it.

londonbanker

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Re: Dividends do not matter
« Reply #60 on: February 22, 2019, 04:04:25 PM »
The UK FTSE 100 average dividend is 4.2% (has been between 3.5-4.5 for the past 8+ years)... at hose level it absolutely does matter more than the SP500 abt at 1.8%

jim555

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Re: Dividends do not matter
« Reply #61 on: February 22, 2019, 04:11:58 PM »
There is no such thing as a "mandatory" price drop for ex div corporate stocks.  Price is agreed between buyer and seller alone.

Stimpy

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Re: Dividends do not matter
« Reply #62 on: February 23, 2019, 02:12:49 PM »
Price is agreed between buyer and seller alone.

Agreed, my example points that out BUT, the "official" price drops by the amount of the dividend (Not an optional price drop so it's mandatory), that does NOT mean that the price of the trades all drop.   So YES there is a Mandatory price drop, but it does NOT (usually) effect the value of the trades. 

I quote:
Quote
On the ex-dividend date, the stock price is adjusted downward by the amount of the dividend by the exchange on which the stock trades. - https://www.investopedia.com/articles/stocks/07/dividend_implications.asp
« Last Edit: February 23, 2019, 02:14:53 PM by stimepy »

Stimpy

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Re: Dividends do not matter
« Reply #63 on: February 23, 2019, 02:39:17 PM »
Excessive dividends are NOT desirable... they create tax drag and your dividend is coming out of the NAV of the stock.  It's preferable for as much of the dividend to be retained within the NAV without tax consequences.  Unfortunately dividends are the most poorly understood concept among investors... so many people think just because a company is giving away dividends it's great as they think it's "free" money.. well, there is no free lunch, it's all coming out of your growth and you have to pay taxes on it to boot.  Nope, there could be all sorts of ominous reasons for it.

Got it, YOU don't probably don't understand dividends, but you do understand taxes.  Sounds good to me.  I never said and will never say they are free money as everything out there has a cost.  The only people whom, think they are free money are people whom are new or never understood dividends. 

You believe that dividends give you no value, and that's fine.  We can agree to disagree.

bacchi

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Re: Dividends do not matter
« Reply #64 on: February 23, 2019, 05:34:48 PM »
Price is agreed between buyer and seller alone.

Agreed, my example points that out BUT, the "official" price drops by the amount of the dividend (Not an optional price drop so it's mandatory), that does NOT mean that the price of the trades all drop.   So YES there is a Mandatory price drop, but it does NOT (usually) effect the value of the trades. 

I quote:
Quote
On the ex-dividend date, the stock price is adjusted downward by the amount of the dividend by the exchange on which the stock trades. - https://www.investopedia.com/articles/stocks/07/dividend_implications.asp

Any GTC orders are also reduced by the dividend. There is an order type, DNR, which doesn't reduce. Many individual brokers don't offer it.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/dnr.asp

Padonak

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Re: Dividends do not matter
« Reply #65 on: February 23, 2019, 05:52:28 PM »
It just feels very theoretical. In a 100% rational world, this is probably true. But, a world ran by irrational humans? Is there any evidence that share prices reduce by the dividend amount after the record or payout date?


When a stock goes ex-div, the exchange adjusts the closing stock price.

The chart is adjusted. It may rise from there, or it may fall from there, but the price is actually adjusted.


Let me repeat that: A dividend is not "free" money. The closing price is adjusted downward by the dividend amount.

Dividends decrease the book value of the company, not the market value

jim555

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Re: Dividends do not matter
« Reply #66 on: February 24, 2019, 08:55:57 AM »
Price is agreed between buyer and seller alone.

Agreed, my example points that out BUT, the "official" price drops by the amount of the dividend (Not an optional price drop so it's mandatory), that does NOT mean that the price of the trades all drop.   So YES there is a Mandatory price drop, but it does NOT (usually) effect the value of the trades. 

I quote:
Quote
On the ex-dividend date, the stock price is adjusted downward by the amount of the dividend by the exchange on which the stock trades. - https://www.investopedia.com/articles/stocks/07/dividend_implications.asp
There is no "official" price, it isn't a thing.  The official price is the last traded price.  Reduction of stop and limit orders in the book do no change the price.

That being said it usually trades lower, but no actual mechanism causes this to happen other than supply and demand.

Yes the company is worth less by the amount of the dividend, but stock prices are not directly connected to the value of the company.

bacchi

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Re: Dividends do not matter
« Reply #67 on: February 24, 2019, 10:05:58 AM »
It just feels very theoretical. In a 100% rational world, this is probably true. But, a world ran by irrational humans? Is there any evidence that share prices reduce by the dividend amount after the record or payout date?


When a stock goes ex-div, the exchange adjusts the closing stock price.

The chart is adjusted. It may rise from there, or it may fall from there, but the price is actually adjusted.


Let me repeat that: A dividend is not "free" money. The closing price is adjusted downward by the dividend amount.

Dividends decrease the book value of the company, not the market value .

Incorrect. The stock price is actually adjusted by the exchange. The market value goes down on ex-div at closing.

jim555

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Re: Dividends do not matter
« Reply #68 on: February 24, 2019, 10:33:58 AM »
Incorrect. The stock price is actually adjusted by the exchange. The market value goes down on ex-div at closing.
This doesn't happen.  Open ended mutual funds do reduce the price by the dividend at close because the funds are calculated on NAV.  Corporate stock is not set to a NAV, it is set by buyer and seller.  The exchange doesn't reduce last trade prices on close for ex divs.  Please cite a source for this info.

bacchi

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Re: Dividends do not matter
« Reply #69 on: February 24, 2019, 10:56:00 AM »
Incorrect. The stock price is actually adjusted by the exchange. The market value goes down on ex-div at closing.
This doesn't happen.  Open ended mutual funds do reduce the price by the dividend at close because the funds are calculated on NAV.  Corporate stock is not set to a NAV, it is set by buyer and seller.  The exchange doesn't reduce last trade prices on close for ex divs.  Please cite a source for this info.

Right, what a buyer paid is what the buyer paid. More accurately, the ticker quote is changed. (Also, to clarify some ambiguity on my part, the day of ex-div is too late to get the dividend.)

A source was cited above. There's also this one:

https://finance.zacks.com/stock-price-change-dividend-paid-3571.html

Quote from: zacks
Stock market specialists will mark down the price of a stock on its ex-dividend date by the amount of the dividend. For example, if a stock trades at $50 per share and pays out a $0.25 quarterly dividend, the stock will be marked down to open at $49.75 per share.

http://groupssa.com/ex-dividendstockpriceadjustment.html

Quote from: groupssa
The only trade price that the exchange reduces by the exact amount of a dividend is the quote of the previous day's close, not any actual trade.  But because the quote of the previous day's closing trade AND the bid and the ask of all outstanding orders are also reduced (unless placed with a Do Not Reduce restriction) by the exchange, plus the fact that the net asset value of the stock is now less (by the exact amount of the dividend), when trading begins on the ex-date the effect is usually a reduction in price approximating the size of the dividend, as traders are well aware of the reduction in the stock's net asset value.

Etc., etc.


MarciaB

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Re: Dividends do not matter
« Reply #70 on: February 24, 2019, 11:11:13 AM »
I liked this video a lot and appreciate the tone of voice of the speaker (easy to listen to) and his logic. I'm going to see what else he offers on his YouTube channel - thanks for the link!

And after reading this entire thread it seems to me that almost nothing brings out the boxing gloves like the whole dividend topic. The bickering! The condescending tones! The adamant points of view! The taking other posters to the mat!...what is it about dividends that spur this passion and outrage?

*Not speaking of every entry into this thread of course, but in general of entries in threads that involve dividends.

shinn497

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Re: Dividends do not matter
« Reply #71 on: February 24, 2019, 01:36:03 PM »
I know Im terrible. But boxing is fun. Honestly though I appreciate all of you guys' chiming in.

I think I realize I like argue about stupid financial shit due to frustrations involving my own lonliness. I dun't know what to do about it. eh well.

ChpBstrd

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Re: Dividends do not matter
« Reply #72 on: February 25, 2019, 03:29:37 PM »
..what is it about dividends that spur this passion and outrage?


People who love dividend stocks see them as the ideal investment, with the steady cash flow of bonds and the growth potential of the overall stock market. They see dividend haters as reckless, short-term capital gains gamblers who misunderstand not only compounding but also the the realities of living off of investments. They feel their dividend stocks will have a higher total return than other stocks because of the dividend.

People who hate dividend stocks (hi) see them as a simple conversion of the firm's value and potential into a taxable return OF investment (not return ON investment). They see dividend lovers as being fooled by a single accounting factor into investing in dead-end companies like GE, Kraft, AT&T, and Ford.

In other words, they see each other as doing something irrational based on a simplistic understanding of how stocks work. In a tireless effort to clear the internet of irrationality, they say to each other "WTF are you thinking, idiot!"

I would be interested to learn whether one's opinion on dividends is predictive of one's opinion on paying off a mortgage early. There is probably some sort of underlying psychological factor, such as risk aversion, optimism, or a preference for cash accounting.

Stimpy

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Re: Dividends do not matter
« Reply #73 on: February 25, 2019, 04:00:22 PM »
People who love dividend stocks see them as the ideal investment, with the steady cash flow of bonds and the growth potential of the overall stock market. They see dividend haters as reckless, short-term capital gains gamblers who misunderstand not only compounding but also the the realities of living off of investments. They feel their dividend stocks will have a higher total return than other stocks because of the dividend.

People who hate dividend stocks (hi) see them as a simple conversion of the firm's value and potential into a taxable return OF investment (not return ON investment). They see dividend lovers as being fooled by a single accounting factor into investing in dead-end companies like GE, Kraft, AT&T, and Ford.

In other words, they see each other as doing something irrational based on a simplistic understanding of how stocks work. In a tireless effort to clear the internet of irrationality, they say to each other "WTF are you thinking, idiot!"

I would be interested to learn whether one's opinion on dividends is predictive of one's opinion on paying off a mortgage early. There is probably some sort of underlying psychological factor, such as risk aversion, optimism, or a preference for cash accounting.
Hmmm, interesting perspective.  I can't speak for all dividend investors.  (Hell I can't even speak for 2 dividend investor!) but I have to say that at least for me it pretty much, not spot on.  Though I am sure that there are those out there that fit this description, or come close to it.  I'll even admit to criticizing people taking there "zealot" behavior a little too far.  The best investors understand that it doesn't matter how you get there(whatever there is), only that you do.

Now I have been called an idiot for liking dividends and investing in them and seen it tossed back as you have noted.  I personally wouldn't call ANYONE an idiot or say they are doing it wrong for investing in non-dividend paying stocks/etfs.  I'll defend them sure, but if you really don't want to collect a dividend and just depend on returns, by all means go for it.  You find more value that way and we just have to agree to disagree. 

Can we argue about it, absolutely!  Who's right in the end?  In this instance, the guy/gal whom retires early so.... All of us(hopefully)?
« Last Edit: February 25, 2019, 04:04:05 PM by stimepy »

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Dividends do not matter
« Reply #74 on: February 27, 2019, 07:21:23 AM »
Now I have been called an idiot for liking dividends and investing in them and seen it tossed back as you have noted.  I personally wouldn't call ANYONE an idiot or say they are doing it wrong for investing in non-dividend paying stocks/etfs.
Straw man warning: nobody has called you that in this thread.  You're bringing up an insult that nobody has used here.

Boofinator

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Re: Dividends do not matter
« Reply #75 on: February 27, 2019, 07:55:01 AM »
Now I have been called an idiot for liking dividends and investing in them and seen it tossed back as you have noted.  I personally wouldn't call ANYONE an idiot or say they are doing it wrong for investing in non-dividend paying stocks/etfs.
Straw man warning: nobody has called you that in this thread.  You're bringing up an insult that nobody has used here.

Perhaps not directly, but the implication was there when the poster he was responding to said he was "fooled", "doing something irrational", and saying to each other "WTF are you thinking, idiot!" Granted, all of this was postulated as a hypothetical, but by implication it presumed people are calling each other idiots.

Stimpy

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Re: Dividends do not matter
« Reply #76 on: February 27, 2019, 08:00:08 AM »
Now I have been called an idiot for liking dividends and investing in them and seen it tossed back as you have noted.  I personally wouldn't call ANYONE an idiot or say they are doing it wrong for investing in non-dividend paying stocks/etfs.
Straw man warning: nobody has called you that in this thread.  You're bringing up an insult that nobody has used here.
Correct. (And I'd be surprised if they did as we all seem to be smart, intelligent people.) 

But I get the feeling I am becoming the aggressor here so.. Apologies to all as no offense was ever intended.

Adam Zapple

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Re: Dividends do not matter
« Reply #77 on: February 27, 2019, 09:01:22 AM »
I hold all my dividend aristocrats in tax protected accounts.  I purchased the stocks directly (not through a fund).  They make up about 25% of my stock portfolio.  Tell me why I am stupid.

ChpBstrd

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Re: Dividends do not matter
« Reply #78 on: February 27, 2019, 09:05:28 AM »
Quote
I would be interested to learn whether one's opinion on dividends is predictive of one's opinion on paying off a mortgage early. There is probably some sort of underlying psychological factor, such as risk aversion, optimism, or a preference for cash accounting.

I created a poll to check for a correlation between dividend investing and early mortgage payoff:

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/poll-on-the-most-controversial-2-subjects-on-the-mmm-forum/

shinn497

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Re: Dividends do not matter
« Reply #79 on: February 27, 2019, 08:41:13 PM »
I am not against dividends. I am also highly highly for early mortgage payoff. One is a diversification argument and the other is behavioural.

Leisured

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Re: Dividends do not matter
« Reply #80 on: March 03, 2019, 05:25:59 AM »
You buy a rental property, and charge rent as a reward for saving and investing your money. If the property is in an attractive area and its market price rises, that rise is unaffected by your charging rent or not. I suspect that most of the time, the rise in market price of a public company is not much affected if it pays dividends or not. If the public likes what the company is selling, then that market support comes after capital investment the company has made in the recent past.

Rents and dividends are a rewards for saving and investing. This has been the case since the ancient world. Those who want capital have to pay for it, either as interest, or as dividends.

In practice, most public companies borrow money and pay interest, and also pay dividends. Shareholders own part of the company, and the bank owns the rest. Analysts suggest that as a rule of thumb, shareholders should own two thirds of a company, and the bank one third. If a company pays 7% on borrowed money, and pays more than that in dividends, shareholders benefit from the difference.

The US tax code requires those who work for a living to pay a higher rate of income tax than those who do not work for a living, but hold qualifying share investments paying dividends. Does that tell you something?

sol

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Re: Dividends do not matter
« Reply #81 on: March 03, 2019, 08:25:15 AM »
The US tax code requires those who work for a living to pay a higher rate of income tax than those who do not work for a living, but hold qualifying share investments paying dividends. Does that tell you something?

Maybe?  But I'm not entirely clear on what you're trying to say.  Can you be more explicit?

Leisured

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Re: Dividends do not matter
« Reply #82 on: March 04, 2019, 05:39:51 AM »
I was being cynical: Congress and lobbyists have ensured that those receiving qualifying dividends pay a lower tax rate than those who work for a living. I am Australian, and wonder if many Americans even know there are two income tax scales; one for those who work, and one for those who do not.

In Australia there is only one income tax scale, but we have a strange custom known as dividend imputation, so that a company pays tax, then pays dividends with a credit for the income tax paid by the company. This means that Australian investors in most Australian companies pay little or no tax on their dividend income, so the effect is much the same as the American income tax scale for qualifying dividend income.

The moral is: invest and join the privileged upper class who pay income tax at a lower rate than the poor sods with no assets.


MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Dividends do not matter
« Reply #83 on: March 04, 2019, 06:42:07 AM »
Do any dividend investors focus on international for the higher dividends?
I thought that earlier post was interesting, I'd never heard of that idea.

One problem with an earlier post saying dividends do not impact the stock price: does that mean two otherwise identical companies can grow at identical rates if one throws off a 5% dividend and the other throws off a 2% dividend?  I would think the company with a lower dividend kept more money to buy factories and hire people, letting it grow faster.  Which means the market has to incorporate the dividend into it's estimates of future profit, and then reflect that in the stock price.

Boofinator

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Re: Dividends do not matter
« Reply #84 on: March 04, 2019, 07:56:12 AM »
I was being cynical: Congress and lobbyists have ensured that those receiving qualifying dividends pay a lower tax rate than those who work for a living. I am Australian, and wonder if many Americans even know there are two income tax scales; one for those who work, and one for those who do not.

In Australia there is only one income tax scale, but we have a strange custom known as dividend imputation, so that a company pays tax, then pays dividends with a credit for the income tax paid by the company. This means that Australian investors in most Australian companies pay little or no tax on their dividend income, so the effect is much the same as the American income tax scale for qualifying dividend income.

The moral is: invest and join the privileged upper class who pay income tax at a lower rate than the poor sods with no assets.

Investors in the U.S. are also double-taxed: first at the corporate level, and second at the individual level.

By the way, virtually everyone on this board was at one time (or still is) a poor sod with no assets, so the real moral of the story is don't buy stupid shit if you want to climb up the class ladder.

Boofinator

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Re: Dividends do not matter
« Reply #85 on: March 04, 2019, 08:03:43 AM »
One problem with an earlier post saying dividends do not impact the stock price: does that mean two otherwise identical companies can grow at identical rates if one throws off a 5% dividend and the other throws off a 2% dividend?  I would think the company with a lower dividend kept more money to buy factories and hire people, letting it grow faster.  Which means the market has to incorporate the dividend into it's estimates of future profit, and then reflect that in the stock price.

Typically, dividends act as a function of growth, not the other way around. So if a company can use accumulated capital to innovate, grow, and earn a good return on that capital, then it makes sense for that company to reinvest and not pay dividends (e.g. Amazon or Berkshire Hathaway). If a company can no longer use accumulated capital to create more growth in a cost-effective manner, it has transitioned into a 'value' company and should then pay out the capital as dividends.

dougules

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Re: Dividends do not matter
« Reply #86 on: March 05, 2019, 10:29:46 AM »
I was being cynical: Congress and lobbyists have ensured that those receiving qualifying dividends pay a lower tax rate than those who work for a living. I am Australian, and wonder if many Americans even know there are two income tax scales; one for those who work, and one for those who do not.

In Australia there is only one income tax scale, but we have a strange custom known as dividend imputation, so that a company pays tax, then pays dividends with a credit for the income tax paid by the company. This means that Australian investors in most Australian companies pay little or no tax on their dividend income, so the effect is much the same as the American income tax scale for qualifying dividend income.

The moral is: invest and join the privileged upper class who pay income tax at a lower rate than the poor sods with no assets.

Investors in the U.S. are also double-taxed: first at the corporate level, and second at the individual level.

By the way, virtually everyone on this board was at one time (or still is) a poor sod with no assets, so the real moral of the story is don't buy stupid shit if you want to climb up the class ladder.

That's the price of limited liability.  I'm happy that nobody can come after my personal assets if a company I own stock in goes bust.