Author Topic: Dividend investing  (Read 1330 times)

mistymoney

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Dividend investing
« on: February 13, 2021, 05:55:09 PM »
I feel like stocks with good dividends (blue chip like) used to be a really solid play and that somehow, they aren't like that anymore?

https://www.simplysafedividends.com/intelligent-income/posts/1038-what-happens-to-dividends-during-recessions-and-bear-markets

this article seems pretty positive towards dividends, but I feel like the dividend info graphed here seems less stable post 2000 or so....

my idea was that growth stocks used to be more speculative, while dividend stocks were solid companies, and that isn't so true these days.

what is your thought?


mistymoney

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Re: Dividend investing
« Reply #2 on: February 14, 2021, 07:43:39 AM »
Chasing dividends is ineffective.

but that is my point really, isn't it? Used to be dividend blue-chip stocks were the way to go, provided income and resistance to big dips (and also big gains) in the stock price, but I don't think that holds any water anymore and my questions is, is that true and if so, why has that changed?

Everything seems in lockstep.

I saw someone mention something about dividends here to the effect of: if a company isn't growing what's the point? But I think we can also look at it from the perspective that if a company isn't making any money to disburse to owners, what's the point there? There may be growth phases where plowing all earnings back into growth makes sense, but if there isn't a time when a business is earning money that is payable to shareholders, it never 'makes it'.

And then there may be times in which the company would be pushing growth when perhaps it doesn't make sense and then push money into growth ops that don't pan out. 

maizefolk

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Re: Dividend investing
« Reply #3 on: February 14, 2021, 07:49:20 AM »
Chasing dividends is ineffective.

but that is my point really, isn't it? Used to be dividend blue-chip stocks were the way to go, provided income and resistance to big dips (and also big gains) in the stock price, but I don't think that holds any water anymore and my questions is, is that true and if so, why has that changed?

Was the underlined statement ever actually true of dividend stocks though? Or was that just the marketing pitch a decade ago when a bunch of folks were talking about "dividend aristocrats"?

mistymoney

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Re: Dividend investing
« Reply #4 on: February 14, 2021, 09:02:19 AM »
Chasing dividends is ineffective.

but that is my point really, isn't it? Used to be dividend blue-chip stocks were the way to go, provided income and resistance to big dips (and also big gains) in the stock price, but I don't think that holds any water anymore and my questions is, is that true and if so, why has that changed?

Was the underlined statement ever actually true of dividend stocks though? Or was that just the marketing pitch a decade ago when a bunch of folks were talking about "dividend aristocrats"?

Lol, I guess I'm talking "used to" like 40's and 50's, like golden age of hollywood type times :P

maizefolk

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Re: Dividend investing
« Reply #5 on: February 14, 2021, 09:32:53 AM »
Was it true in the 1940s and 1950s though either?

Those were pretty good decades to be invested in the market generally, and it's also true that a larger proportion of stocks paid out dividends back in those days. But were the outcomes who invested in dividend stocks actually better that the outcomes for people who invested in non-dividend paying stocks (if non-dividend paying stocks existed at the time outside of companies headed towards bankruptcy)?

You're asking why did X stop being true, and while we all seem to be in agreement that X is not true now, it may be worth first asking "Was X ever true?" before trying to find the answer to "Why did X stop being true?"

mistymoney

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Re: Dividend investing
« Reply #6 on: February 14, 2021, 10:25:24 AM »
Was it true in the 1940s and 1950s though either?

Those were pretty good decades to be invested in the market generally, and it's also true that a larger proportion of stocks paid out dividends back in those days. But were the outcomes who invested in dividend stocks actually better that the outcomes for people who invested in non-dividend paying stocks (if non-dividend paying stocks existed at the time outside of companies headed towards bankruptcy)?

You're asking why did X stop being true, and while we all seem to be in agreement that X is not true now, it may be worth first asking "Was X ever true?" before trying to find the answer to "Why did X stop being true?"

I think that was included?

And I'm not so much interested in dividend vs growth stock, that is a meaningless question (to me at least) - so apologies if that seemd the road I was going down. My initial post was meant to compare how dividend stocks were more stable (in the graphs of the linked article) relative to total stocks in the past - but that currently (10-20 most recent years) they seemed to be equally volatile. Growth stocks are highest risk/highest return potential and I do prefer growth for the most part in my portfolio. However, I'm interested in hedging a bit against the total stock/sp500 and bonds do not seem that great of an option to me (- and in that sense - I have the same intution - that bonds were a real hedge back in the day - everything that rises must converge?).

I don't fancy being a landlord, bonds and cash seem like you are losing value over time, I'm not interested in gold or crypto but I would like some diversifying influence. Seemed like dividend stocks with steady yeilds and stable to slowly rising stock prices would be the ticket - but seems like that doesn't hold true - either ever or anymore (not sure if that matters if ever as I only have today's dollars to invest).

But was considering some mix of dividends, maybe in REIT, financials, utilities, etc. spaces for about 20-30% of my stache, and the more I research I guess I'm disappointed that I'm not finding anything solidly different from growth. Hence the post.


maizefolk

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Re: Dividend investing
« Reply #7 on: February 14, 2021, 10:30:59 AM »
My initial post was meant to compare how dividend stocks were more stable (in the graphs of the linked article) relative to total stocks in the past - but that currently (10-20 most recent years) they seemed to be equally volatile.

Which graph(s) are you looking at in the article? I'm not seeing a direct comparison of the price moves of dividend stocks vs non-dividend stocks, but it's quite possible I'm just missing it.

mistymoney

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Re: Dividend investing
« Reply #8 on: February 14, 2021, 11:35:12 AM »
My initial post was meant to compare how dividend stocks were more stable (in the graphs of the linked article) relative to total stocks in the past - but that currently (10-20 most recent years) they seemed to be equally volatile.

Which graph(s) are you looking at in the article? I'm not seeing a direct comparison of the price moves of dividend stocks vs non-dividend stocks, but it's quite possible I'm just missing it.

There is a table under "What Typically Happens to Dividends During a Recession" and the change in dividends is usually muted compared to stock decreases, but in the last one on 2008-2009 it was -23%, so seemed different from historical changes.

Telecaster

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Re: Dividend investing
« Reply #9 on: February 14, 2021, 12:15:57 PM »
Back when stocks were first invented 100% of the profits were paid out in dividends.  You'd get some investors together who would buy shares in the venture, hire a ship and crew, sail to India and load up on spices, return home,  sell everything, and divide up the profits.  Rinse and repeat.  At some point instead of creating a new business venture each time, somebody got the idea to keep some of the profits in the company so they could skip the step of raising the capital.   

If we look back at the stodgy old Blue Chips of the 1950s and 1960s, GM, Kodak, IBM, GE, etc. they all paid dividends because all stocks paid dividends.  That's how investors understood you'd get your money back.   As discussed above, increasingly investors and corporations have realized it is more efficient to reinvest all of the profits back into the company.  For that reason, the dividend yield of the S&P 500 has been declining for decades.

If we use the Dow as a proxy for stodgy old Blue Chips you'll find it actually is a little less volatile than the S&P 500, but because they are large, well established companies, not because they pay dividends. 

When the smoke clears, the money in your bank account doesn't know if it came from dividends or some selling shares.  So why bother looking at it that way?   If diversification is your goal there may be some value of diversifying into say, small caps or international stocks, etc.  however. 

maizefolk

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Re: Dividend investing
« Reply #10 on: February 14, 2021, 12:29:17 PM »
My initial post was meant to compare how dividend stocks were more stable (in the graphs of the linked article) relative to total stocks in the past - but that currently (10-20 most recent years) they seemed to be equally volatile.

Which graph(s) are you looking at in the article? I'm not seeing a direct comparison of the price moves of dividend stocks vs non-dividend stocks, but it's quite possible I'm just missing it.

There is a table under "What Typically Happens to Dividends During a Recession" and the change in dividends is usually muted compared to stock decreases, but in the last one on 2008-2009 it was -23%, so seemed different from historical changes.

Yes dividends tend to be cut a less in recessions than stock prices. That's a bit of a different statement from dividend stocks being more stable than non-dividend paying stocks.* Before it sounded like you were comparing the change in price for both groups.

The great recession was an exception. So many companies were worried about their ability to just survive, let alone make profits that could be paid out as dividends. The table you are looking at starts after the great depression, but my guess is that you'd see similar dramatic cuts in dividends during the great depression.

The table also doesn't include the most recent recession. You look at the 2020 recession (we did have one, even if it was short lived) the S&P paid out slightly larger dividends (in non-inflation adjusted terms) in 2020 than in 2019. So I don't know that the dividend cuts during the great recession are telling us about a fundamental change in the behavior of the market with regard to stock dividends, just that companies try to maintain their dividends in moderate recessions but are perfectly willing to cut them when the survival of the organization is at stake in major economic crises.

*Total stocks is just the sum of dividend paying stocks and non-dividend paying stocks so if we're talking about differences between dividend paying stocks and total stocks the only possible source of difference is the non-dividend paying stocks.