I’ve been investing since the beginning of 2016 and the more and more I learn on the topic the more I am pulled in two slightly different directions, value investing or index investing. So many people here and in the FI scene espouse index investing as the best way to go and I’d love to have someone address whatever it is I am missing and convince me to jump on the index bandwagon.
For value investing I look for quality companies that are priced attractively relative to earnings and will likely (my opinion) succeed far into the future. I then hold these companies for decades to reduce frictional costs, the only price I pay is the commission to first acquire them (this can be extremely low if you use some of the newer brokers on the market). My eventual goal is to build up a diversified dividend income stream from the 11 sectors of the stock market ( at least 2-3 well established companies in each) to fund my living expenses allowing me to retire at a young age (~30) and utilize the favorable taxation of dividend income without having to sell underlying shares.
Here is my screener for value / dividend growth investing.
PE (Under 20) :
Payout Ratio (Under 60%) :
EPS (Consistent) 3yr :
5yr :
10yr :
# Years Dividend Increases (for core 10+) :
Yield:
Dividend Growth 3yr :
5yr :
10yr :
Wide moat (yes/no, why):
How will they grow EPS:
Committed to Dividend?
Revenue (what caused the growth/decline)
3yr :
5yr :
10yr :
Qualitative, opinion on future of company and industry:
Pros about this type of investing
1. Get into investments at a lower cost (many studies have shown that getting into a stock at a cheaper price leads to superior returns over the long term)
2. Zero transaction fees once you own the stock
3. Can optimize taxes by tax loss harvesting, tax gain harvesting
Cons
1. Not diversified enough? (However several studies point out that owning 20-30 companies across the sectors of the economy provide the vast majority of the diversification needed)
2. Requires some attention to note when to sell (if dividend cut)
3. Time. To buy/maintain
Index investing
Pros
1. Instantly track your index which is proven to be superior to actively managed funds*
2. Passive
Cons
1. Cannot selectively/optimally tax loss or tax gain harvest since you cannot trade underling companies (also wash sale
https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Tax_loss_harvesting)
2. Will always pay an annual percentage to have it managed (This is incredibly low but noteworthy nonetheless)
3. Cannot search for bargains, will pay a higher PE for the stocks
4. Some of the indexes have arbitrary definitions that change over time?**
“In contrast, a dividend investor can build a diversified portfolio of individual dividend stocks, and just hold on to it through thick or thin, without paying any costs or having much forced turnover. This is a much better form of passive investing”
*Is it only true because of low cost and not selling in a bear market? What would you say to this quote “Valuation does matter as it determines what future returns will be. Overvaluation was the reason why the Vanguard Pacific Index Fund did not return much over inflation over the past 27 years. Paying too much for equities is dangerous. Too much in my opinion is 25 – 30 times earnings or more. Sticking your head in the sand is dangerous. Buying asset classes for the sake of following some blind model could be costly down the road.”
**“For example, the popular index S&P 500 routinely changes 4% - 5% of its holdings every year. It also engages in changes to the strategy such as the one in 1976, the massive allocations to technology stocks in 1999, the elimination of foreign companies in 2002, and changes to its weighting mechanisms in 2005.”
An excellent article on this is from dividend growth investor:
http://www.dividendgrowthinvestor.com/2017/03/five-myths-about-index-investing.htmlIn conclusion what I am seeing is that whichever strategy one chooses the main ways to perform well are to
1. keep costs low
2. find an attractive entry point
3. Buy quality companies
4. hold for a very long time
5. profit ??
I really want to hash out the true pros and cons of both methods with facts not opinions so studies proving a point would be great! Thanks everyone!