Author Topic: Did not time the market, was this dumb?  (Read 2189 times)

DaKini

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Did not time the market, was this dumb?
« on: January 24, 2015, 12:09:34 PM »
Hello there,
yesterday morning my sell orders for rebalancing were executed. I now feel a litte dumb because the index in question did raise another 1.6% and my mind keeps telling me this was entirely foreseeable. The background story to this is draghis announcement of the european QE program and the index was the german stock index DAX i was still holding because it was until now that it was time to rebalance this.

Should i have waitet a few more days or was it not so foreseeable my mind wants me to think?

dividendman

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Re: Did not time the market, was this dumb?
« Reply #1 on: January 24, 2015, 12:13:06 PM »
You did the right thing, rebalance on your own schedule. The small 1.6% change in prices will seem miniscule over time.

MrMoogle

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Re: Did not time the market, was this dumb?
« Reply #2 on: January 24, 2015, 01:58:20 PM »
Everything is 20/20 in the rear view mirror.  I honestly don't know what you're talking about with the draghis announcement, but markets are unpredictable.  I wouldn't worry about it, it's in the past.  And I wouldn't about timing in the future, it's impossible to catch every 1% at the perfect time.  Since it was a rebalance, you probably didn't move that much over and still have plenty in your DAX.  All that money still gained the 1.6%.

DaKini

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Re: Did not time the market, was this dumb?
« Reply #3 on: January 24, 2015, 02:22:38 PM »
Yeah, well, that DAX portion was an old position that i counted to the "european" portion of my portfolio and it matched quite nicely the rebalancing ammount so i liquidated all of it. My portfolio is now clean of it :) (eu is covered by the stoxx 600 index which is way more diversified as the 30 positions in the DAX).

The "its in the past" is a valid argument though, because thats the same for sunc cost fallacy. Thanks for the reminder.

Draghis announcement concerned the introduction of QE in europe, that is, central banks will buy bonds. This will probably rise stock prices and is one main cause (i think) the dax jumped. This is what i meant what may have been predictable; it is just not predictable when the jumoping is over.

Dodge

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Re: Did not time the market, was this dumb?
« Reply #4 on: January 24, 2015, 04:41:27 PM »
If it were predictable, prices would've reflected it already.  Don't worry about it.