Author Topic: Did any Mustachians correctly call the top?  (Read 2739 times)

Radagast

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Did any Mustachians correctly call the top?
« on: March 12, 2020, 08:35:10 PM »
I have seen a few posters implying that they correctly predicted the top in advance because they saw the Corona Crash (CNBC, new phrase!) coming a mile away, but I think many of them are greatly exaggerated. Does anyone have quotes from between around January 1 and February 20 of MMMer's correctly calling the top? Because with hind sight, this was surely the most easily predictable crash in history. I'd love to see evidence of a real life crystal ball gazer in action.

Also, I will get to call BS on everyone who doesn't make the list :D

Little Aussie Battler

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Re: Did any Mustachians correctly call the top?
« Reply #1 on: March 12, 2020, 08:51:40 PM »
Aren't all crashes easily predictable in hindsight?

What's that famous quote from Samuelson - the market has predicted 9 of the past 5 recessions?

Radagast

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Re: Did any Mustachians correctly call the top?
« Reply #2 on: March 12, 2020, 08:56:38 PM »
Aren't all crashes easily predictable in hindsight?

What's that famous quote from Samuelson - the market has predicted 9 of the past 5 recessions?
Exactly!

I did not see it coming.

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Did any Mustachians correctly call the top?
« Reply #3 on: March 12, 2020, 09:03:49 PM »
Technically, if you didn't buy or sold equities at a gain in 2019 (and bought something that held its value or remained in cash), you have now outsmarted the market.  Same for all of 2018 as of today...  and could easily go back further at this point.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Did any Mustachians correctly call the top?
« Reply #4 on: March 12, 2020, 09:13:02 PM »
During COVID-19, I have predicted things several days in advance, but that's about it - never the whole picture early on.

I predicted China would hit 10,000 cases several days before that happened.  The market reacted, but I hadn't thought to put money behind it.

The Feb 28 stock market drop was pure panic, and felt like a local low point, so I pushed in +2%.  That was correct for the following week - it was a local low point.  Then COVID-19 hit the U.S., and a new panic began.

On Monday, Mar 9, I placed limit orders to sell some equities at the market open (see "An experiment" thread).  My theory is that the U.S. will hit 10,000 cases and cause further panic, so I'm waiting for that to happen.  Note that isn't calling the lowest point - it's just predicting a panic, and being in bonds until it occurs.

So... predicting several days in advance, multiple times?  But no, I didn't predict a worldwide pandemic in Early February.

kenmoremmm

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Re: Did any Mustachians correctly call the top?
« Reply #5 on: March 12, 2020, 09:13:32 PM »
i transferred out of equities in some of my accounts on 3/4. was hemming and hawing about it for a few weeks prior.

Radagast

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Re: Did any Mustachians correctly call the top?
« Reply #6 on: March 12, 2020, 09:15:22 PM »
Technically, if you didn't buy or sold equities at a gain in 2019 (and bought something that held its value or remained in cash), you have now outsmarted the market.  Same for all of 2018 as of today...  and could easily go back further at this point.
Yup, and I did that. We ditched 75% of our taxable stocks in November, which took us to ~90/10. But it was recognition of that fact that markets can crash and we wanted to buy a house within a year or so. An all time high seemed like a good time to set that money aside. Not out of any specific prediction that there would be a crash. Even in Mid-February I did not see it coming.

But surely someone did? You don't have to nominate yourself. If you happen to remember something, feel free to nominate anybody who called it.

Radagast

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Re: Did any Mustachians correctly call the top?
« Reply #7 on: March 12, 2020, 09:30:24 PM »
During COVID-19, I have predicted things several days in advance, but that's about it - never the whole picture early on.

I predicted China would hit 10,000 cases several days before that happened.  The market reacted, but I hadn't thought to put money behind it.

The Feb 28 stock market drop was pure panic, and felt like a local low point, so I pushed in +2%.  That was correct for the following week - it was a local low point.  Then COVID-19 hit the U.S., and a new panic began.

On Monday, Mar 9, I placed limit orders to sell some equities at the market open (see "An experiment" thread).  My theory is that the U.S. will hit 10,000 cases and cause further panic, so I'm waiting for that to happen.  Note that isn't calling the lowest point - it's just predicting a panic, and being in bonds until it occurs.

So... predicting several days in advance, multiple times?  But no, I didn't predict a worldwide pandemic in Early February.
I think micro things are low hanging fruit though. I have been pretty good at catching a few local corrections myself. In fact four this month I think, rebalancing long term bonds at a record high that held for a week, delaying retirement account investments by one day in early March, a tiny limit order Monday, and for a few hours today my larger and very market timey specific ETF purchase was the fund's 52-week (and longer) low. But that is all bullshitting around the edges.

I never saw it coming. I need someone who did! Factories in China going idle, disrupting supply chains for half the world's products, 20% exponential disease spread on a daily basis, pretty freaking obvious MMMers! Some one noticed this! Show us the quote! Or forever hold your peace!

Radagast

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Re: Did any Mustachians correctly call the top?
« Reply #8 on: March 12, 2020, 09:39:25 PM »
i transferred out of equities in some of my accounts on 3/4. was hemming and hawing about it for a few weeks prior.
Hmmm. With more details I might give you partial credit. You were two weeks late, and you didn't report the transaction until a week after that, at which point you had already made an additional sell. But, definitely, if you get DJIA below 16,000 correct then I think some credit will be due.

Classical_Liberal

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Re: Did any Mustachians correctly call the top?
« Reply #9 on: March 12, 2020, 09:45:06 PM »
No, I did not call it.

Throughout 2018-19 I didn't buy into the index anytime CAPE for S&P was above 30 though.  Instead bought gold(don't want to argue about this, it's my thing), I-term treasuries, and hoarded some cash.  I semi-Re'ed in Sept 2019 and didn't start working again until Feb, so I wanted a bit of stability for personal reasons as well. I was about 55-60% equities when SHTF. 

Just to make a point though.  I know plenty of people who went to almost all cash equivalents in 2018 and 2019 (most during the Q4 dip so they sold in the S&P 2700 range).  Although I wasn't buying much, I wasn't selling either.  Now with S&P down 27% as of today, I finally hit the point where I would have been about even if I had gone all cash Jan 2019. So far I've lost nothing despite staying invested. A lesson here for me and maybe others.

Today I began DCAing cash back in to bring my stock allocation back up to where I want it for the long term, about 65%.

kenmoremmm

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Re: Did any Mustachians correctly call the top?
« Reply #10 on: March 12, 2020, 09:49:04 PM »
i transferred out of equities in some of my accounts on 3/4. was hemming and hawing about it for a few weeks prior.
Hmmm. With more details I might give you partial credit. You were two weeks late, and you didn't report the transaction until a week after that, at which point you had already made an additional sell. But, definitely, if you get DJIA below 16,000 correct then I think some credit will be due.
i think i had one of the first CV threads on MMM:
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/off-topic/coronavirus/
i was definitely concerned, even if i didn't post.
problem for me was: continual hammering of the idea not to time the market per MMM forums. but, i considered this a semi-black swan event and eventually pulled the trigger. it helps that i live 4 miles from ground zero in WA.

Classical_Liberal

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Re: Did any Mustachians correctly call the top?
« Reply #11 on: March 12, 2020, 10:02:15 PM »
I should add.  I did sell 50% of my I-term treasuries on Friday the 6th.  Yield on 10-yr was about 0.75% at that point.  I know it dipped below that for a day, but now back up.  So, maybe I did call the top... for Treasuries.  :)

Radagast

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Re: Did any Mustachians correctly call the top?
« Reply #12 on: March 12, 2020, 10:06:54 PM »
I sold much of my VTSAX at 3,243

Preparing the list to start legging in overthe next few weeks. My opinion is this wonít be a v up and there will be many head fakes.

We have our first USA death today. Once the first child sadly dies, it will be more hysteria. Women at work were talking non stop about it this week with their kids and what to do

Highs for 2020 are already in and wonít be seen for 18 months or more.

DISCLAIMER - I could be wrong about everything above. I never time the market so this will be an interesting experiment. Good luck to all. Iím in a crowd of 4,000 people now. Wish me luck and good health.
I nominate @FrugalSaver . A hair outside my target range, but this could be our best call.

Classical_Liberal

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Re: Did any Mustachians correctly call the top?
« Reply #13 on: March 12, 2020, 10:09:02 PM »
Second that nomination.  Nice call!

@Radagast
What no love for the bond markets!!??  :)
Yet to be seen, I guess...
« Last Edit: March 12, 2020, 10:10:43 PM by Classical_Liberal »

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Did any Mustachians correctly call the top?
« Reply #14 on: March 12, 2020, 10:13:57 PM »
I made a big sale at S&P 2,837.44, for what it's worth, and it's still sittin in a stable value fund (not money market)

At the close of the market today, 600k will transfer from mostly aggressive funds to a money market fund for me.  I did pretty well in the 2008-9 crash (in hindsight, at one point, it looked like I'd gotten back in too early).  Just a fun experiment with, what I'm now convinced is very little downside.  The market needs to take a breather from this breathless sprint into ginormous headwinds...  but it'll be hard to know what to do even if the market corrects 20%!  Not really worried, I'm way ahead of schedule on retirement funds, so I can sit it out for a while either way, just more worried than optimistic at this point as the November mid-terms start to ramp up.  Good luck everyone!  Knowing when to invest, for me, is harder than knowing when to sell.

kenmoremmm

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Re: Did any Mustachians correctly call the top?
« Reply #15 on: March 12, 2020, 10:16:45 PM »
But, definitely, if you get DJIA below 16,000 correct then I think some credit will be due.
i'm now thinking this goes to 12,000.

Radagast

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Re: Did any Mustachians correctly call the top?
« Reply #16 on: March 12, 2020, 10:30:35 PM »
Second that nomination.  Nice call!

@Radagast
What no love for the bond markets!!??  :)
Yet to be seen, I guess...

I nominate myself :) After the morning blip I put in an order to sell ZROZ at $200, and actually hovered on changing it to a market order around $198. But no... anyhow I missed the top by inches, but not necessarily the best rebalancing chance, TBD.
Put in more limit orders to sell ZROZ, since it was both insane and over my rebalance band. But that didn't go through, hopefully it will have a chance this week.

But this was caused by a rebalance band, so reactive not predictive.
« Last Edit: March 12, 2020, 10:36:40 PM by Radagast »

Radagast

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Re: Did any Mustachians correctly call the top?
« Reply #17 on: March 12, 2020, 10:32:14 PM »
But, definitely, if you get DJIA below 16,000 correct then I think some credit will be due.
i'm now thinking this goes to 12,000.
Anything is good, as long as you declare buying back in below 16,000!

Heliios

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Re: Did any Mustachians correctly call the top?
« Reply #18 on: March 12, 2020, 11:17:41 PM »
I sold ~25% of my index funds on February 6th (98.3% of top). But it's because my roof had to be replaced and as per IPS I needed to replenish my emergency fund. However, I had been following coronavirus news since late January with a lot of trepidation and I remember being strongly tempted to just sell everything. But then I talked myself down...don't time the market, stick to IPS, be greedy when you are secretly paralyzed with fear. So no... I didn't actually time the market, but I guess I got my roof 30% off.

markbike528CBX

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Re: Did any Mustachians correctly call the top?
« Reply #19 on: March 12, 2020, 11:32:31 PM »
Not really a call, but to get spendable cash I sold:

VTSAX  01/21/20       @81.96
VSIAX  01/21/20   @59.14

this is about 6-8 months spending for 2020.

I did this mostly as I was going on vacation in Mexico, where DW and I inoculated ourselves with copious Corona (and Indio, and Victoria and Dos Equis, etc).



vand

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Re: Did any Mustachians correctly call the top?
« Reply #20 on: March 13, 2020, 12:47:19 AM »
My effort was pretty good: https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/top-is-in/msg2518718/#msg2518718

Iím going to go out on another limb here and say that Thursday was likely a bottom. We rally strongly from here.
« Last Edit: March 13, 2020, 01:44:19 AM by vand »

DoNorth

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Re: Did any Mustachians correctly call the top?
« Reply #21 on: March 13, 2020, 02:44:36 AM »
Not called the top per se, but I reduced my equities/bond mix from about 80/20% to 60/40% when the dow was around 29,300.  I went to a 70/30 yesterday and will probably return to 80/20 within a month.  In almost 20 years, I might have adjusted the allocation 10 times max and no special insights--I just felt like doing it.  With that said, I have a very generous military pension and a regular job on top of that.

mrmoonymartian

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Re: Did any Mustachians correctly call the top?
« Reply #22 on: March 13, 2020, 03:03:47 AM »
I nominate Roland of Gilead:

I placed a small wager on a local maxima.  I purchased 100 SPY $325 puts for $3.40 today, expiring March 20

Essentially controlling $3,250,000 of stock with $34,000.

Just on a gut feeling that the economic impact from the virus hasn't been priced in (yeah I know everything is priced in, except when it isn't).

I am probably out at a 5% dip in the market, which would make about $70,000 profit.


Do you actually think SPY is going to go below 325 before March 20 though?  Time is not really on your side since it is now eroding the value of the puts even if the market stays flat (since the Top is In).

Sure, anything is possible.   The market was already getting ahead of itself before the corona virus.   This is just panic buying FOMO.   In a week or two investors are going to start looking at missed 1Q earnings.

Other things could tank the market.   Bernie winning more.  The virus not really being as over as wall street is pricing in.

I am pretty comfortable with it, and it lets me trade around in other accounts without fear of waking up one morning and seeing the whole market down 10%.


Down $13,400 as of today's market close per the quote I just checked.

Now down *only* $7,000.

It could go either way now, as always.   15,000 new cases of flu seems to be having an effect on the market although it was probably just a change in the way they were being diagnosed.

I consider the puts sort of a flu protection device if we get a real outbreak in the USA, like 1000s of cases.   Then the market likely will drop 10%.  I hope this does not happen.  I would be fine eating the loss on the puts instead of having trade disrupted that much.

Its gambling, but so is taking a cruise right now, and there are plenty of folks still lined up to go.


Down $3,500 after the first day of trading. Don't doubt ur vibe.

To be honest, I also would have expected the impact on supply chains would have had more of an effect on revenue and share prices. Good luck with the bet.

I closed it out today at $3.65 for a meager $3,500 profit.

I was too early with the purchase, I admit.  I am lucky to get out with a profit as this market is much more resilient than I thought.

That being said, the supply chains are going to be interrupted and there is still a great chance that the S&P500 will correct in March or April significantly (10%).   The problem is it is way too hard to predict how the government might step in to shore things up.

Can you type up the steps you did and what you thought the outcome might be (explain the step) for an idiot like me that doesn't understand options?


1) Read news, start to worry that maybe China is important to the world economy after all

2) Look at 401K, which is largely in the S&P500 and is at all time high

3) Buy 100 SPY $325 puts for $3.30, March 20, 2020 expiration

4) Watch everyone cackle as the market goes even higher

5) Watch with sadness as puts drop to $2

6) Finally get lucky on a market dip and sell puts for $3.65

7) Realize gambling is a problem, so book a cruise to Asia for April with the money made

8) (future)  Get really sad in March when market drops 10% and puts are worth $10 and 401K has dropped $150,000

marty998

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Re: Did any Mustachians correctly call the top?
« Reply #23 on: March 13, 2020, 03:04:46 AM »
I sold up my entire equities portfolio on 30 January.

It was not because of COVID-19 and it was not due to market timing. I purchased a property in the last week of Jan and wanted to keep the deposit safe (as you should), until it is needed for the settlement in May. Eliminate all risk when you know you are locked into a forward contract basically.

I was within 3% of the Australian top which occurred in mid Feb. Have now avoided some $120,000 in losses.

My mate at work was in my ear for about 6 months before saying "this shit is getting crazy, the market is going to crash". The really stupid thing is that I purchased the property basically on a whim. I then sold for a different reason, and he didn't take his own advice and is still holding.

Life really is a box of chocolates.

TomTX

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Re: Did any Mustachians correctly call the top?
« Reply #24 on: March 13, 2020, 07:31:57 AM »
I have seen a few posters implying that they correctly predicted the top in advance because they saw the Corona Crash (CNBC, new phrase!)

I prefer "Trump Dump" due to the grossly inadequate Federal response more concerned with optics than getting working tests rolled out, or common sense screening.

sehr

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Re: Did any Mustachians correctly call the top?
« Reply #25 on: March 13, 2020, 11:04:19 AM »
I've felt like we've been in for something since last April, which is when I went from almost all equities to 20% bonds since I'm 40 and refrained from all investing that didn't involve a tax advantaged account. So I missed some really good growth, but do have a pile of cash to invest now since life happened and I was too anxious/busy/tired to invest since last April.

I'm not much of a numbers cruncher, but I feel lucky that I've probably reached the point where I'm at least breaking even for all the extra growth I missed since April. My brain knows that timing the market is foolish, but it seems to not stop my from trying, at least with money that isn't in my retirement accounts/HSA.

FrugalSaver

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Re: Did any Mustachians correctly call the top?
« Reply #26 on: March 16, 2020, 09:57:52 PM »
I sold much of my VTSAX at 3,243

Preparing the list to start legging in overthe next few weeks. My opinion is this wonít be a v up and there will be many head fakes.

We have our first USA death today. Once the first child sadly dies, it will be more hysteria. Women at work were talking non stop about it this week with their kids and what to do

Highs for 2020 are already in and wonít be seen for 18 months or more.

DISCLAIMER - I could be wrong about everything above. I never time the market so this will be an interesting experiment. Good luck to all. Iím in a crowd of 4,000 people now. Wish me luck and good health.
I nominate @FrugalSaver . A hair outside my target range, but this could be our best call.

Woohoo!  What do I win?!?  I de put my first tranche back in today.

Here. We. Go!!!!!

Radagast

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Re: Did any Mustachians correctly call the top?
« Reply #27 on: March 16, 2020, 10:07:08 PM »
Wow, am I getting my investing knowledge right? Roland of Gilead could have sold $2,400,000 of stock today for $3,250,000, taking about $850,000 profit, if he hadn't sold out weeks ago? Good call up front, too bad about being so early.

mrmoonymartian

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Re: Did any Mustachians correctly call the top?
« Reply #28 on: March 17, 2020, 02:03:16 AM »
Wow, am I getting my investing knowledge right? Roland of Gilead could have sold $2,400,000 of stock today for $3,250,000, taking about $850,000 profit, if he hadn't sold out weeks ago? Good call up front, too bad about being so early.



I'm dying to know what they are worth at expiration...

Right now they would have been worth about $800,000

STEMorbust

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Re: Did any Mustachians correctly call the top?
« Reply #29 on: March 17, 2020, 05:18:34 PM »
I moved 90% to cash on Feb 4th.

Pure luck. I changed jobs and cashed out my 401k for the transfer. Put the money back in as 90/10 bonds to stocks and am doing a stepwise conversion back to stock heavy, but with a focus on international index funds.

It almost makes up for my partner being out of work due to coronavirus!

Really, though, I am thankful for the luck.

Dicey

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Re: Did any Mustachians correctly call the top?
« Reply #30 on: March 17, 2020, 07:56:17 PM »
Most of the people who "called it" here were joking. As far as I can tell, this crowd is pretty far from panic, and that's darn refreshing during these dark days.

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Did any Mustachians correctly call the top?
« Reply #31 on: March 17, 2020, 09:53:02 PM »
Most of the people who "called it" here were joking. As far as I can tell, this crowd is pretty far from panic, and that's darn refreshing during these dark days.

In general, this forum has been a whole lot more fun this downturn than Bogleheads was during 2008/9, I actually though the world was going to end back then listening to those folks!

Chris Pascale

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Re: Did any Mustachians correctly call the top?
« Reply #32 on: March 17, 2020, 10:27:51 PM »
I unplugged some money a year ago, and missed something like a 17% gain.

Looking at VTSAX over the past month, I guess I wasn't so far off, but, no, I had no idea, but thought I did.

Daisyedwards800

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Re: Did any Mustachians correctly call the top?
« Reply #33 on: March 19, 2020, 10:59:08 AM »
I took 70% of my money out at the end of January-ish at around 28,000 or so.  That's $245,000.  I am trying to figure out when to put it back in :/

soccerluvof4

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Re: Did any Mustachians correctly call the top?
« Reply #34 on: March 19, 2020, 01:00:36 PM »
I thought the market was going to break 30k on the Dow and then have a correction. Seemed like a psychological certainty but came up short due to a scary uncertainty.

Montecarlo

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Re: Did any Mustachians correctly call the top?
« Reply #35 on: March 19, 2020, 01:25:53 PM »
I called this crash back in 2014 and have been shorting the market ever since.  I'm more than a little pissed at all these johnny-come-lately coattail-riders trying to take my credit.

Montecarlo

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Re: Did any Mustachians correctly call the top?
« Reply #36 on: March 19, 2020, 01:28:13 PM »
In all seriousness, I bought a house cash in 2018 instead of 20% down mortgage, because I was concerned about market valuations.  I guess that kinda counts?

soccerluvof4

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Re: Did any Mustachians correctly call the top?
« Reply #37 on: March 19, 2020, 01:50:45 PM »
In all seriousness, I bought a house cash in 2018 instead of 20% down mortgage, because I was concerned about market valuations.  I guess that kinda counts?

I paid cash for a house in the first week of December 2x's value of house I was living in. Closed my paid for house the week after and never put the cash in the market. The was about at lucky I have been and probably will be in a long long time!

Jack0Life

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Re: Did any Mustachians correctly call the top?
« Reply #38 on: March 19, 2020, 02:53:44 PM »
I did get it right on a moderate amount. Partly because I wanted to reach a goal.
My goal was to hit $1 million net worth and I was really close. Around $991,000.
Part of the reason for the milestone was that my wife was going to quit and I can just reduce work to pay for expenses. Let that $1 million grow for a few years until we both retire.

So I've been following the situation  in China and for the first few weeks and it had little impact to the US market. I thought it was strange. It was just a matter it time before it hit the US.
I keep telling my wife that we should be cautious. I also told reminded her of our mini goal of $1 million.
She finally told me to do what ever I need to do.
It went something like this as I only have around $280k in VTSAX.
- I moved close to $200k from vtsax to vbtlx(bonds) on Feb 19th. The last day of gains before the 7 days drop.
- On the Fri 28th,(7th days of straight drop), I bought in for $20k of fresh money.
- On either Mon 30th, I moved a most of everything from vtsax to vbtlx.
My wife has a small 401k from her new work place ~15k that she refused to move. (if I had access to her 401k I would have done so.
So I'm sitting pretty right with almost everything in VBTLX(bonds). At the beginning while the market was dropping, my VBTLX was gaining. I went in around $11.27 and it got to 11.66. Sure its not a lot but when you have tons of shares,  its a nice chunk.
Sadly, my stash of bond funds are dropping like rocks too. Its down to below $11 now.
So I have about $300k in VBTLX while the lone holdout is my wifes 401k. VBTLX has been dropping rapidly for the past week.

I've been buying back in stages. Waiting for the DOW at 20k, 19k, etc.....
I've been lucky at just pure guessing.
This past Monday I moved $20k over to index when the market dropped. On Tuesday it went back up and I moved the $20k over to MM. Made like $1100.  Its like gambling. Take whatever small winnings and RUN.
Still at a loss overall. Around $10k of the $300k I have in investment. Still count my blessing I didn't take a 30% loss.

The_Pretender

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Re: Did any Mustachians correctly call the top?
« Reply #39 on: March 20, 2020, 02:33:47 AM »
I think we can announce a clear winner... He timed it perfectly!!!  Just wonder where he got his information to so confidently move 1.7M out of the market?

https://www.propublica.org/article/senator-dumped-up-to-1-6-million-of-stock-after-reassuring-public-about-coronavirus-preparedness

"His biggest sales included companies that are among the most vulnerable to an economic slowdown. He dumped up to $150,000 worth of shares of Wyndham Hotels and Resorts, a chain based in the United States that has lost two-thirds of its value. And he sold up to $100,000 of shares of Extended Stay America, an economy hospitality chain. Shares of that company are now worth less than half of what they did at the time Burr sold."

NaN

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Re: Did any Mustachians correctly call the top?
« Reply #40 on: March 20, 2020, 06:59:13 AM »
He is not the only one. There are strict against rules for a lot of people who can't trade stock. Congressmen/women will likely get a pass.

JLee

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Re: Did any Mustachians correctly call the top?
« Reply #41 on: March 20, 2020, 07:00:54 AM »
I think we can announce a clear winner... He timed it perfectly!!!  Just wonder where he got his information to so confidently move 1.7M out of the market?

https://www.propublica.org/article/senator-dumped-up-to-1-6-million-of-stock-after-reassuring-public-about-coronavirus-preparedness

"His biggest sales included companies that are among the most vulnerable to an economic slowdown. He dumped up to $150,000 worth of shares of Wyndham Hotels and Resorts, a chain based in the United States that has lost two-thirds of its value. And he sold up to $100,000 of shares of Extended Stay America, an economy hospitality chain. Shares of that company are now worth less than half of what they did at the time Burr sold."

It gets even better, too.

https://www.ft.com/content/e3a82b44-6a3f-11ea-800d-da70cff6e4d3
Quote
Ms Loefflerís disclosures included $250,000 to $500,000 worth of total purchases on February 14 of stock in Oracle, the database software seller, and Citrix, which sells teleconferencing products.


CorpRaider

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Re: Did any Mustachians correctly call the top?
« Reply #42 on: March 23, 2020, 07:01:44 PM »
I use a trend following + valuation strategy with one of my larger accounts.  It had me out of u.s. stocks as of March 5th (I think, whatever that first friday in march was), but there have been lots of whipsaws to pay as insurance premiums along this long bull market that's for sure.  It is beating 60-40 by about 400bps YTD (both are smoking 100% VTSAX of course), but lost by about 80 BPS in 2019.
« Last Edit: March 23, 2020, 07:03:25 PM by CorpRaider »

Telecaster

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Re: Did any Mustachians correctly call the top?
« Reply #43 on: March 23, 2020, 07:21:19 PM »
I will say for sure that I did not call the top.   The bottom will come eventually.  I won't call that either. 

ysette9

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Re: Did any Mustachians correctly call the top?
« Reply #44 on: March 23, 2020, 07:43:08 PM »
I called the top! I warned everyone things were going to take a downturn to coincide with my retirement on lucky Friday the 13th of this month.

I was off by about two weeks I believe.

hodedofome

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Re: Did any Mustachians correctly call the top?
« Reply #45 on: March 25, 2020, 09:36:02 PM »
I follow All Star Charts (JC Parets) and I thought he was crazy to say in January sell stocks and buy bonds. Market was a freight train running over every non believer in its path. Then in the middle of February, he called the top of the Russell 2000 index within a few points. It looked like a low risk high reward trade so I followed him into it while still holding onto all my longs. I had been long bonds for a while and that helped. The R2k short certainly saved my account from further destruction (I was heavily leveraged long) but I still dropped about 40%+ from my high water Mark this year. I was up about 40% middle of February, now Iím down a bit for the year.

LWYRUP

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Re: Did any Mustachians correctly call the top?
« Reply #46 on: March 25, 2020, 09:44:12 PM »
On Mon. Feb 23rd I was so panicked about this virus I couldn't concentrate at work and went home early.  I took the next day off and took my mom to Costco and we both bought a bunch and I told her not leave the house for the next few months.  (She has a lung condition).  I also got medicine, extra propane and then went nutty and got water and camping supplies (I'll use them for camping but it basically doubles as prepper gear).  My coworkers thought I was nuts.  I'm more on the anxious side generally but I've never ever done anything like that before.

But I've been a buy and hold investor for over a decade and didn't sell a single share even though I thought the market would fall.  Honestly I was too stressed out to think about money at the time.   Good idea, bad execution maybe?  At least mom is safe.
« Last Edit: March 25, 2020, 09:49:20 PM by LWYRUP »

Daisyedwards800

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Re: Did any Mustachians correctly call the top?
« Reply #47 on: April 17, 2020, 12:26:15 PM »
After taking out 70% of my cash I started putting it back in at 12,500 a day (more or less) on March 23rd.  Currently up 5% for the year, and probably 6.5% YTD by the end of today.  I still have $110,000 in cash ...

HalfMustache

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Re: Did any Mustachians correctly call the top?
« Reply #48 on: April 20, 2020, 03:35:47 PM »
I'm a long time lurker that just recently made this account. Aside from a bit of cryptocurrency speculation, I follow the Mustachian line: Buy and hold, Vanguard Total Stock Market Index or S&P500.

On January 30th, I went to cash on about 95% of my investments, including my 401k and Roth IRA, which I have never previously touched. Of course, since I have never posted here before, I cannot prove any of this.

I began watching this Coronavirus situation closely around the middle of January. By the end of January, I was quite alarmed at what I was seeing. I was mostly following alternative media, and trying to glean every scrap of information that was leaking out of China. My main indicator was how the Chinese government was reacting to this. First locking down Hubei province, then eventually instituting some sort of lock down on about 750 million people. You don't do that for a flu. Not to mention how they were accomplishing this – sending people to quarantine camps (no medical treatment, just a place to put people until they test negative of die) and literally welding people into their homes or apartment buildings.

I started following this forum about that time to get my pulse on the “above average intelligence buy and hold index investor” sentiment. It was a surreal experience to see investors shrug this off and for the market to continue marching higher until the end of February. I think the market is similarly deluded right now – time will tell.
« Last Edit: April 21, 2020, 06:43:49 AM by HalfMustache »

Brother Esau

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Re: Did any Mustachians correctly call the top?
« Reply #49 on: April 20, 2020, 05:14:41 PM »
I have no clue where the top is/was and also no clue where the bottom is/was, but....I made some serious moves from cash/bonds/income funds a few days either side of March 23. Market timing? Let's see in 10 years.