Author Topic: Delusional markets stalling my start to aggressive investing  (Read 4977 times)

caracarn

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1616
  • Age: 50
  • Location: Ohio
Re: Delusional markets stalling my start to aggressive investing
« Reply #50 on: May 01, 2020, 12:45:35 PM »
James,

I just saw this thread and read through it and one thing is clear.  You have already made up your mind, so can you share what your goal is?  To try to convince the rest of us? 

You've been told you are suffering from "this time it is different"itis and you insist, "but no!  This time it is different!".  We've told you it's not.  Every time people feel the same way.  They know what is going to happen.  With that crystal ball you've already telegraphed to us that you will clearly be sitting on your hands.  That's your choice.  I and it seems many others will continue to invest according to our plan.

Will the market drop for two years?  Maybe.  When my father and others were screaming at me that I was a fool for investing as this started I said I doubt it will go much below 20,000.  Seemed I was right.  Am I know an expert who can open up a hedge fund with my stellar powers of reading the market and make you all rich?  No.  I am a blind squirrel who happened to find an acorn.  And so may you be sir if in two years you are right.  If you let it get to your head, you'll then make the next call, and it has a 85-90% chance of being wrong, just as the call you already missed, the run up we are in right now.  By your own evidence you have proven at this point in history to be 100% wrong.  The only prediction you made, that the market could not go up on this news is what has you here.  0 for 1.  Will you be 1 for 2 or 0 for 2 in two years with the other prediction, that "we can only go down for 2 years"?  In either case 50% accurate is not a great track record to pontificate from. 

ETA:  And my company of 10,000+ employees is still operating, albeit all working from home, so there is at least one company running.  Oh, and the 5 grocery stores in my town, and the 50 restaurants providing take out, and the 3 home improvement stores.  Seems to be a lot open in my neck of the woods.  Sorry everything closed in yours. How is the hunting for rabbits for dinner going?
« Last Edit: May 01, 2020, 12:48:23 PM by caracarn »

nereo

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 13513
  • Location: Just south of Canada
    • Here's how you can support science today:
Re: Delusional markets stalling my start to aggressive investing
« Reply #51 on: May 01, 2020, 12:47:58 PM »

if you are so convinced you 'know' then why are you asking a message board to confirm?

I really hope the OP (and others reading this thread) take a moment to contemplate what confirmation bias really looks like.  We have a bunch of people in effect saying "we can never be sure, markets often aren't rational see all these historical examples and reasons why", and the OP instead thanking people who agree with him/her and aruing with people who aren't actually disagreeing (merely pointing out the inherent uncertainty and poor record in general calling how deep a bear market with go).

One more thought: The market is not the economy, and its often not even a very good reflection of the economy.
Counter-intuitively, small businesses (which are overwhelmingly NOT publicly traded and therefor not reflected in the market) can fail en masse and the result can actually be good for the larger publicly held companies.  And if these companies get public assistence (which is currently happening, as it did under TARP 1&2), their share price won't fall as much as one otherwise might expect it to.  Historically markets start to rally long before the unemployment bottoms out


Jamese20

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 223
Re: Delusional markets stalling my start to aggressive investing
« Reply #52 on: May 01, 2020, 12:51:17 PM »
Look, I'm trying to provide you with some reasonable commentary.  You are alleging there's 0 people employed, 0 work being done, which is obviously bogus.  I'm suggetings its close to 80%, which is in line with what most economists are saying.  We can quibble a few points but it's clear your are using hyperbole to avoid looking at some very real arguments to your underlying premise, which seems to be "of course the markets will be lower ___ days/weeks/months from now"

Let's look at this from a different tack (and simlar to what @maizeman was getting at).
In mid March what percentage of people do you think would have estimated that the markets would be much lower at the end fo April?  Now imagine you had told them that 22MM additional people would have filed for unemployment, oil would drop to around $20/barrel and that shutdowns would have been extended through May for ahlf the country.  I'm guessing at least 9/10 would have placed wagers that the market would have continued to drop.

Guess waht?  It didn't.  In part because of massive government intervention. In part due to hope and scientific progress.  In part because of rainbow dust and fairy farts.  The why doesn't matter nearly as much as the fact that it did.

So now we are at another crossroads.  Will we bounce back in 12 months or will we be lower than we are now?  FWIW  I'm in the camp that thinks the rest of 2020 will be rough indeed.  But I'm not arrogant enough to assume it *will* happen.  Because like Walt I remember 2007/08 when the entire financial system was on teh verge of metldown and >70% of economists predicted a much greater fall and a dreaded "w" recession... precisely when we had hit bottom.

i did not say anything of a sort... i said we have frozen the economy globally.. which is pretty accurate - only essentials are open.. sometimes you dont need ecomonists to tell you what is out your front door and on the job boards.. have you been out lately and taken a look around? nobody is doing anything...

Retire-Canada

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 7611
Re: Delusional markets stalling my start to aggressive investing
« Reply #53 on: May 01, 2020, 12:55:21 PM »
have you been out lately and taken a look around? nobody is doing anything...

Yes I have been out as I and everyone I know is still working and shopping, etc... Where I am there is no lock down and the few businesses that are closed are restaurants, bars, salons, barber shops and large mass gathering events like sports and concerts. There is less going on than usual, but "nobody is doing anything" is not accurate.

Jamese20

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 223
Re: Delusional markets stalling my start to aggressive investing
« Reply #54 on: May 01, 2020, 12:57:33 PM »
James,

I just saw this thread and read through it and one thing is clear.  You have already made up your mind, so can you share what your goal is?  To try to convince the rest of us? 

You've been told you are suffering from "this time it is different"itis and you insist, "but no!  This time it is different!".  We've told you it's not.  Every time people feel the same way.  They know what is going to happen.  With that crystal ball you've already telegraphed to us that you will clearly be sitting on your hands.  That's your choice.  I and it seems many others will continue to invest according to our plan.

Will the market drop for two years?  Maybe.  When my father and others were screaming at me that I was a fool for investing as this started I said I doubt it will go much below 20,000.  Seemed I was right.  Am I know an expert who can open up a hedge fund with my stellar powers of reading the market and make you all rich?  No.  I am a blind squirrel who happened to find an acorn.  And so may you be sir if in two years you are right.  If you let it get to your head, you'll then make the next call, and it has a 85-90% chance of being wrong, just as the call you already missed, the run up we are in right now.  By your own evidence you have proven at this point in history to be 100% wrong.  The only prediction you made, that the market could not go up on this news is what has you here.  0 for 1.  Will you be 1 for 2 or 0 for 2 in two years with the other prediction, that "we can only go down for 2 years"?  In either case 50% accurate is not a great track record to pontificate from. 

ETA:  And my company of 10,000+ employees is still operating, albeit all working from home, so there is at least one company running.  Oh, and the 5 grocery stores in my town, and the 50 restaurants providing take out, and the 3 home improvement stores.  Seems to be a lot open in my neck of the woods.  Sorry everything closed in yours. How is the hunting for rabbits for dinner going?

i havent made my mind up... just because i dont see very good answers back at me doesnt mean i have made my mind up.. i think my argument that due to the obvious elephant in the room right now that seemingly alot dont want to look at is there for all to see... i have yet to see a compelling argument for why the market will continue to stabilise and the current bull will continue... unless i have missed an amazing answer somewhere

I accept that in the long run i will be fine... this is not the premise of my point...my point is.. it seemingly is very obvious based on the current climate the affect is alot more than a 10% decline in markets... business wont be making alot of money this year or possibly a number of years Q1 results alrdy look worse than predicted - isnt the markets about shareholder value? so what is the compelling reason for the markets to continue to go up in the next couple of years? that is the answer i am looking for that outweighs the elephant in the room

Jamese20

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 223
Re: Delusional markets stalling my start to aggressive investing
« Reply #55 on: May 01, 2020, 12:59:13 PM »
have you been out lately and taken a look around? nobody is doing anything...

Yes I have been out as I and everyone I know is still working and shopping, etc... Where I am there is no lock down and the few businesses that are closed are restaurants, bars, salons, barber shops and large mass gathering events like sports and concerts. There is less going on than usual, but "nobody is doing anything" is not accurate.

ok, if you want to knit pick.. people are out buying the bare minimums to survive only...

nereo

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 13513
  • Location: Just south of Canada
    • Here's how you can support science today:
Re: Delusional markets stalling my start to aggressive investing
« Reply #56 on: May 01, 2020, 01:00:36 PM »

i did not say anything of a sort... i said we have frozen the economy globally.. which is pretty accurate - only essentials are open.. sometimes you dont need ecomonists to tell you what is out your front door and on the job boards.. have you been out lately and taken a look around? nobody is doing anything...

No... what you said was "no money is being made" and "nobody is doing anything".  I quoted the relevant portion of your post below.  That is flat out wrong.  Again, even though front-facing businesses may be closed the majority of people who had a job are still working, still producing, still making money.  Even though we likely have unemployment in the 15-20% range, we still have ~80% of our workforce doing work.  What you see as "only the essentials" being open misses a huge swatch of the economy which can and is being done remotely.  Retail is actually a small portion of our (or any developed country's) economy.

Importantly global TRADE is still ongoing, with goods flowing to/from one region to another.  It's dropped in some sectors, but it's far from 'shut down'.  In fact, trade is one exception to the closed borders that so many countries (including the US) have placed.  Trucks, trains and cargo ships are still going to/fro the US filled with all sorts of goods.


it literally is different... we have actively closed down... closed... no money is being made... business going bust at rates faster than i can imagine.. still not in the fall out stages... ive not seen any sensible argument that stocks will go up in the next 2 years from anyone other than silly remarks like this one

Ann

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 291
Re: Delusional markets stalling my start to aggressive investing
« Reply #57 on: May 01, 2020, 01:02:19 PM »
OP - do you have an account with an investment company set up?  Vanguard?  Schwab?  I know you said you had your pension fund.

In *my* experience  it does take a while from the time you apply to open an account to when you can invest.  At least in does it you do it on-line (like a week) but may be more immediate if you go to one of their physical locations.

I would recommend opening up an account.  Get that out of the way. 

Yes, I would even recommend starting to dollar cost average even $100 a month into some index funds /ETFs. 

This will at least get rid of the “inertia” component of not investing.  I’m not advocating lump sum investing.  I am recommending dipping your toe in. Then when you are ready to invest it is just a click away ... not a week away after security processing.

Stimpy

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 203
  • Age: 36
  • Location: Middle of Nowhere
Re: Delusional markets stalling my start to aggressive investing
« Reply #58 on: May 01, 2020, 01:05:03 PM »
have you been out lately and taken a look around? nobody is doing anything...

Yes I have been out as I and everyone I know is still working and shopping, etc... Where I am there is no lock down and the few businesses that are closed are restaurants, bars, salons, barber shops and large mass gathering events like sports and concerts. There is less going on than usual, but "nobody is doing anything" is not accurate.

ok, if you want to knit pick.. people are out buying the bare minimums to survive only...

Really?  Wish I knew that before seeing UPS, Amazon, etc trucks coming around to every door.   Doesn't look like 'bare minimum' to me.  Heck I know I've even bought some 'fluff' here and there for the last few months.    Guess your town is REALLY empty ritght now.

Jamese20

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 223
Re: Delusional markets stalling my start to aggressive investing
« Reply #59 on: May 01, 2020, 01:07:07 PM »

i did not say anything of a sort... i said we have frozen the economy globally.. which is pretty accurate - only essentials are open.. sometimes you dont need ecomonists to tell you what is out your front door and on the job boards.. have you been out lately and taken a look around? nobody is doing anything...

No... what you said was "no money is being made" and "nobody is doing anything".  I quoted the relevant portion of your post below.  That is flat out wrong.  Again, even though front-facing businesses may be closed the majority of people who had a job are still working, still producing, still making money.  Even though we likely have unemployment in the 15-20% range, we still have ~80% of our workforce doing work.  What you see as "only the essentials" being open misses a huge swatch of the economy which can and is being done remotely.  Retail is actually a small portion of our (or any developed country's) economy.

Importantly global TRADE is still ongoing, with goods flowing to/from one region to another.  It's dropped in some sectors, but it's far from 'shut down'.  In fact, trade is one exception to the closed borders that so many countries (including the US) have placed.  Trucks, trains and cargo ships are still going to/fro the US filled with all sorts of goods.


it literally is different... we have actively closed down... closed... no money is being made... business going bust at rates faster than i can imagine.. still not in the fall out stages... ive not seen any sensible argument that stocks will go up in the next 2 years from anyone other than silly remarks like this one

if you want to be literal... fine... ill even take your 80% as gospel for this for now.. 20% unemployment was the great depression figuree was it not? so on what basis are we not looking at another using your own numbers? 20% unemployment contributed to  stocks down 90% and suffering for many years did it not? if my history is right inititially? i am not advocating this will repeat... i am merely saying buying at these levels if i am just about to ramp up my investing seems maybe premature considering the current saga

Jamese20

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 223
Re: Delusional markets stalling my start to aggressive investing
« Reply #60 on: May 01, 2020, 01:07:48 PM »
OP - do you have an account with an investment company set up?  Vanguard?  Schwab?  I know you said you had your pension fund.

In *my* experience  it does take a while from the time you apply to open an account to when you can invest.  At least in does it you do it on-line (like a week) but may be more immediate if you go to one of their physical locations.

I would recommend opening up an account.  Get that out of the way. 

Yes, I would even recommend starting to dollar cost average even $100 a month into some index funds /ETFs. 

This will at least get rid of the “inertia” component of not investing.  I’m not advocating lump sum investing.  I am recommending dipping your toe in. Then when you are ready to invest it is just a click away ... not a week away after security processing.

thanks for that - yes mate i am all setup ready to rock n roll

never give up

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3733
  • Location: UK
  • Kindness is free to give and priceless to receive
Re: Delusional markets stalling my start to aggressive investing
« Reply #61 on: May 01, 2020, 01:08:58 PM »
i havent made my mind up... just because i dont see very good answers back at me doesnt mean i have made my mind up.. i think my argument that due to the obvious elephant in the room right now that seemingly alot dont want to look at is there for all to see... i have yet to see a compelling argument for why the market will continue to stabilise and the current bull will continue... unless i have missed an amazing answer somewhere

You won't get an amazing answer Jamese20 (no offence everyone, my post won't be amazing either). No one can provide such an answer. If someone could then they would be able to predict exactly what will happen in the markets and they would be too busy making a fortune to post on here.

A bear market does feel like the end of the world or else it wouldn't have been a bear market. If no one ever panicked then markets wouldn't drop 20-30% in short periods. They would just plod along. The rise after that initial fall has been a bit crazy to say the least but if anyone was waiting for it to fall 50% then they may be disappointed. However there is nothing to say it won't fall 50% in the coming months. The point is you don't know.

I believe you are a UK poster? Why not keep going with your monthly payments and just feed any lump sum into something like Vanguard LifeStrategy 40 or 60 (% stocks) over the next twelve months if you've got access. That at least gets you started and underway. You can always make it more aggressive in the future.

This is a time for asset allocation and sticking with your plan. Whether someone is just starting out, accumulating or FIRE'd you've got to know your asset allocation and stick to the plan.

nereo

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 13513
  • Location: Just south of Canada
    • Here's how you can support science today:
Re: Delusional markets stalling my start to aggressive investing
« Reply #62 on: May 01, 2020, 01:14:20 PM »
so what is the compelling reason for the markets to continue to go up in the next couple of years? that is the answer i am looking for that outweighs the elephant in the room

Here's a more direct answer to your question (a few people have said things on similar lines... I'm just highlighting it here)

The market is composed of publicly traded companies. Many of those companies are getting financial aid ("bailouts").  From a shareholders' perspective, it doesn't matter if profits come from sales or from a government grant.  Right now many of these businesses are effectively being given grants (not loans) to stay solvent and retain their workforce. That's a big reason why the share price of many corporations went UP even as sales went DOWN.  As restrictions are lifted the hope is that there will be a surge in spending from pent up demand.  If better treatments do indeed come on the market in a few months (optimistic but possible timeline) and a vaccine around next January (ditto) these companies could be just fine. It certainly won't be universal across all sectors but it could happen to enough businesses to avoid the crash you seem certain is inevitable.

Along the same lines -- unlike, say, the great recession, the causal factor of this was external, not systemic.  There's no underlying reason why businesses should fail once they can get back to their normal levels of production. It isn't like in 2007/08 (or 2001) when so much was built on top of bad debt and utterly unrealistic projections. Businesses - and the financial sector in particular - remain stronger today than they were a decade ago. Technology has allowed a lot of businesses to shift operations remotely, which wasn't feasible previously.


Jamese20

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 223
Re: Delusional markets stalling my start to aggressive investing
« Reply #63 on: May 01, 2020, 01:14:36 PM »
i havent made my mind up... just because i dont see very good answers back at me doesnt mean i have made my mind up.. i think my argument that due to the obvious elephant in the room right now that seemingly alot dont want to look at is there for all to see... i have yet to see a compelling argument for why the market will continue to stabilise and the current bull will continue... unless i have missed an amazing answer somewhere

You won't get an amazing answer Jamese20 (no offence everyone, my post won't be amazing either). No one can provide such an answer. If someone could then they would be able to predict exactly what will happen in the markets and they would be too busy making a fortune to post on here.

A bear market does feel like the end of the world or else it wouldn't have been a bear market. If no one ever panicked then markets wouldn't drop 20-30% in short periods. They would just plod along. The rise after that initial fall has been a bit crazy to say the least but if anyone was waiting for it to fall 50% then they may be disappointed. However there is nothing to say it won't fall 50% in the coming months. The point is you don't know.

I believe you are a UK poster? Why not keep going with your monthly payments and just feed any lump sum into something like Vanguard LifeStrategy 40 or 60 (% stocks) over the next twelve months if you've got access. That at least gets you started and underway. You can always make it more aggressive in the future.

This is a time for asset allocation and sticking with your plan. Whether someone is just starting out, accumulating or FIRE'd you've got to know your asset allocation and stick to the plan.

well amazing is probably not the right word... but any logical reasonable answer that makes reasonable logical sense... ive yet to see one i have to say... i know i will be fine in the long run but i maybe pushing water uphill if my current beliefs are in anyway accurate... i want to be in a global fund... amercia is almost 60% of it... so their market effects it alot... at 10% below highest points i really think this is crazy in this current time and fail to see anything other than decline for some time

Body Surfer

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 101
Re: Delusional markets stalling my start to aggressive investing
« Reply #64 on: May 01, 2020, 01:15:44 PM »
im not saying its the end of civilisation my friend.. i am simplky suggesting that it is depression time for us in this climate and the next 3-5 years the returns i feel will go south not up... i see another dotcom type or worse scenario of 3-4 declining years... the reality has not hit the markets yet and 10% below the highs seems evidently obsurd... why give myself a handicap? i accept its market timing but i also can see how obvious this is a japan style bubble... unless someone can explain how a frozen economy is in the same shape as may 2019?

Have fun working forever then. There will always be plenty of bad news to freak out about.

Hell, even Bob made money... https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2014/02/worlds-worst-market-timer/

-W

so it appears you cannot explain how may 2019 is in the same state as now? no other time has the globel frozen their economy... each downturn still had the economy up and running trying to get out of the decline...

i am not freaking out either fyi... just working out the reality... blind close my eyes type false optimism doesnt seem that useful at this moment in my opinion

OP: I agree with you. There is a terrible reality occurring. Sadly the markets have not paid too much attention to the carnage on Main St (market has last 2 days finally). 10% off record high- seriously? Market is WAY over priced.

I wish the market would just drop already, be done with it, and move on so we investors can start making $ again.

OP I agree with you. Putting a significant % of one's $ into the market now would be a very regrettable decision.

Jamese20

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 223
Re: Delusional markets stalling my start to aggressive investing
« Reply #65 on: May 01, 2020, 01:18:16 PM »
so what is the compelling reason for the markets to continue to go up in the next couple of years? that is the answer i am looking for that outweighs the elephant in the room

Here's a more direct answer to your question (a few people have said things on similar lines... I'm just highlighting it here)

The market is composed of publicly traded companies. Many of those companies are getting financial aid ("bailouts").  From a shareholders' perspective, it doesn't matter if profits come from sales or from a government grant.  Right now many of these businesses are effectively being given grants (not loans) to stay solvent and retain their workforce. That's a big reason why the share price of many corporations went UP even as sales went DOWN.  As restrictions are lifted the hope is that there will be a surge in spending from pent up demand.  If better treatments do indeed come on the market in a few months (optimistic but possible timeline) and a vaccine around next January (ditto) these companies could be just fine. It certainly won't be universal across all sectors but it could happen to enough businesses to avoid the crash you seem certain is inevitable.

Along the same lines -- unlike, say, the great recession, the causal factor of this was external, not systemic.  There's no underlying reason why businesses should fail once they can get back to their normal levels of production. It isn't like in 2007/08 (or 2001) when so much was built on top of bad debt and utterly unrealistic projections. Businesses - and the financial sector in particular - remain stronger today than they were a decade ago. Technology has allowed a lot of businesses to shift operations remotely, which wasn't feasible previously.

the aid in usa i havent really looked at... but our basic aid i estimate covered about a months running costs maybe slightly more nationally only... i dont expect usa to be all that much different.. now it may just be usa opens up and goes nuts... but in my country the opposite seems to be happening -

there is also the lagging effect of people not wanting to go out and about due to the fear factor...

JLee

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 6122
Re: Delusional markets stalling my start to aggressive investing
« Reply #66 on: May 01, 2020, 01:19:17 PM »
i havent made my mind up... just because i dont see very good answers back at me doesnt mean i have made my mind up.. i think my argument that due to the obvious elephant in the room right now that seemingly alot dont want to look at is there for all to see... i have yet to see a compelling argument for why the market will continue to stabilise and the current bull will continue... unless i have missed an amazing answer somewhere

You won't get an amazing answer Jamese20 (no offence everyone, my post won't be amazing either). No one can provide such an answer. If someone could then they would be able to predict exactly what will happen in the markets and they would be too busy making a fortune to post on here.

A bear market does feel like the end of the world or else it wouldn't have been a bear market. If no one ever panicked then markets wouldn't drop 20-30% in short periods. They would just plod along. The rise after that initial fall has been a bit crazy to say the least but if anyone was waiting for it to fall 50% then they may be disappointed. However there is nothing to say it won't fall 50% in the coming months. The point is you don't know.

I believe you are a UK poster? Why not keep going with your monthly payments and just feed any lump sum into something like Vanguard LifeStrategy 40 or 60 (% stocks) over the next twelve months if you've got access. That at least gets you started and underway. You can always make it more aggressive in the future.

This is a time for asset allocation and sticking with your plan. Whether someone is just starting out, accumulating or FIRE'd you've got to know your asset allocation and stick to the plan.

well amazing is probably not the right word... but any logical reasonable answer that makes reasonable logical sense... ive yet to see one i have to say... i know i will be fine in the long run but i maybe pushing water uphill if my current beliefs are in anyway accurate... i want to be in a global fund... amercia is almost 60% of it... so their market effects it alot... at 10% below highest points i really think this is crazy in this current time and fail to see anything other than decline for some time

Well, I hope for your sake you didn't pull out of the market in March.


Jamese20

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 223
Re: Delusional markets stalling my start to aggressive investing
« Reply #67 on: May 01, 2020, 01:21:29 PM »
i havent made my mind up... just because i dont see very good answers back at me doesnt mean i have made my mind up.. i think my argument that due to the obvious elephant in the room right now that seemingly alot dont want to look at is there for all to see... i have yet to see a compelling argument for why the market will continue to stabilise and the current bull will continue... unless i have missed an amazing answer somewhere

You won't get an amazing answer Jamese20 (no offence everyone, my post won't be amazing either). No one can provide such an answer. If someone could then they would be able to predict exactly what will happen in the markets and they would be too busy making a fortune to post on here.

A bear market does feel like the end of the world or else it wouldn't have been a bear market. If no one ever panicked then markets wouldn't drop 20-30% in short periods. They would just plod along. The rise after that initial fall has been a bit crazy to say the least but if anyone was waiting for it to fall 50% then they may be disappointed. However there is nothing to say it won't fall 50% in the coming months. The point is you don't know.

I believe you are a UK poster? Why not keep going with your monthly payments and just feed any lump sum into something like Vanguard LifeStrategy 40 or 60 (% stocks) over the next twelve months if you've got access. That at least gets you started and underway. You can always make it more aggressive in the future.

This is a time for asset allocation and sticking with your plan. Whether someone is just starting out, accumulating or FIRE'd you've got to know your asset allocation and stick to the plan.

well amazing is probably not the right word... but any logical reasonable answer that makes reasonable logical sense... ive yet to see one i have to say... i know i will be fine in the long run but i maybe pushing water uphill if my current beliefs are in anyway accurate... i want to be in a global fund... amercia is almost 60% of it... so their market effects it alot... at 10% below highest points i really think this is crazy in this current time and fail to see anything other than decline for some time

Well, I hope for your sake you didn't pull out of the market in March.



have you read my actual original thread? you come on to disagree without even understanding my current position..

JLee

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 6122
Re: Delusional markets stalling my start to aggressive investing
« Reply #68 on: May 01, 2020, 01:23:03 PM »
i havent made my mind up... just because i dont see very good answers back at me doesnt mean i have made my mind up.. i think my argument that due to the obvious elephant in the room right now that seemingly alot dont want to look at is there for all to see... i have yet to see a compelling argument for why the market will continue to stabilise and the current bull will continue... unless i have missed an amazing answer somewhere

You won't get an amazing answer Jamese20 (no offence everyone, my post won't be amazing either). No one can provide such an answer. If someone could then they would be able to predict exactly what will happen in the markets and they would be too busy making a fortune to post on here.

A bear market does feel like the end of the world or else it wouldn't have been a bear market. If no one ever panicked then markets wouldn't drop 20-30% in short periods. They would just plod along. The rise after that initial fall has been a bit crazy to say the least but if anyone was waiting for it to fall 50% then they may be disappointed. However there is nothing to say it won't fall 50% in the coming months. The point is you don't know.

I believe you are a UK poster? Why not keep going with your monthly payments and just feed any lump sum into something like Vanguard LifeStrategy 40 or 60 (% stocks) over the next twelve months if you've got access. That at least gets you started and underway. You can always make it more aggressive in the future.

This is a time for asset allocation and sticking with your plan. Whether someone is just starting out, accumulating or FIRE'd you've got to know your asset allocation and stick to the plan.

well amazing is probably not the right word... but any logical reasonable answer that makes reasonable logical sense... ive yet to see one i have to say... i know i will be fine in the long run but i maybe pushing water uphill if my current beliefs are in anyway accurate... i want to be in a global fund... amercia is almost 60% of it... so their market effects it alot... at 10% below highest points i really think this is crazy in this current time and fail to see anything other than decline for some time

Well, I hope for your sake you didn't pull out of the market in March.



have you read my actual original thread? you come on to disagree without even understanding my current position..

Yes, I have.

You come here to tell us how market timing is OK when you think it's OK, despite literally every piece of market history we have showing otherwise.

It's your money - do what you want. You don't have to convince me.

and this virus has halted everyone

The S&P 500 is up ~26% in less than six weeks.  That doesn't sound like "halted" to me.

Even if it does, what makes you so sure that you will know when to get in?  If you were as good as you think you are, you'd be a billionaire.
« Last Edit: May 01, 2020, 01:26:49 PM by JLee »

Jamese20

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 223
Re: Delusional markets stalling my start to aggressive investing
« Reply #69 on: May 01, 2020, 01:27:25 PM »
i havent made my mind up... just because i dont see very good answers back at me doesnt mean i have made my mind up.. i think my argument that due to the obvious elephant in the room right now that seemingly alot dont want to look at is there for all to see... i have yet to see a compelling argument for why the market will continue to stabilise and the current bull will continue... unless i have missed an amazing answer somewhere

You won't get an amazing answer Jamese20 (no offence everyone, my post won't be amazing either). No one can provide such an answer. If someone could then they would be able to predict exactly what will happen in the markets and they would be too busy making a fortune to post on here.

A bear market does feel like the end of the world or else it wouldn't have been a bear market. If no one ever panicked then markets wouldn't drop 20-30% in short periods. They would just plod along. The rise after that initial fall has been a bit crazy to say the least but if anyone was waiting for it to fall 50% then they may be disappointed. However there is nothing to say it won't fall 50% in the coming months. The point is you don't know.

I believe you are a UK poster? Why not keep going with your monthly payments and just feed any lump sum into something like Vanguard LifeStrategy 40 or 60 (% stocks) over the next twelve months if you've got access. That at least gets you started and underway. You can always make it more aggressive in the future.

This is a time for asset allocation and sticking with your plan. Whether someone is just starting out, accumulating or FIRE'd you've got to know your asset allocation and stick to the plan.

well amazing is probably not the right word... but any logical reasonable answer that makes reasonable logical sense... ive yet to see one i have to say... i know i will be fine in the long run but i maybe pushing water uphill if my current beliefs are in anyway accurate... i want to be in a global fund... amercia is almost 60% of it... so their market effects it alot... at 10% below highest points i really think this is crazy in this current time and fail to see anything other than decline for some time

Well, I hope for your sake you didn't pull out of the market in March.



have you read my actual original thread? you come on to disagree without even understanding my current position..

Yes, I have.

You come here to tell us how market timing is OK when you think it's OK, despite literally every piece of market history we have showing otherwise.

It's your money - do what you want. You don't have to convince me.

if you did, your queation would now would not be asked would it.. so on that basis i dont believe you

i have not said that either... and since you also cannot put a reason up for the opposite.. il let you continue with other peoples cliches as your responses

JLee

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 6122
Re: Delusional markets stalling my start to aggressive investing
« Reply #70 on: May 01, 2020, 01:30:12 PM »
i havent made my mind up... just because i dont see very good answers back at me doesnt mean i have made my mind up.. i think my argument that due to the obvious elephant in the room right now that seemingly alot dont want to look at is there for all to see... i have yet to see a compelling argument for why the market will continue to stabilise and the current bull will continue... unless i have missed an amazing answer somewhere

You won't get an amazing answer Jamese20 (no offence everyone, my post won't be amazing either). No one can provide such an answer. If someone could then they would be able to predict exactly what will happen in the markets and they would be too busy making a fortune to post on here.

A bear market does feel like the end of the world or else it wouldn't have been a bear market. If no one ever panicked then markets wouldn't drop 20-30% in short periods. They would just plod along. The rise after that initial fall has been a bit crazy to say the least but if anyone was waiting for it to fall 50% then they may be disappointed. However there is nothing to say it won't fall 50% in the coming months. The point is you don't know.

I believe you are a UK poster? Why not keep going with your monthly payments and just feed any lump sum into something like Vanguard LifeStrategy 40 or 60 (% stocks) over the next twelve months if you've got access. That at least gets you started and underway. You can always make it more aggressive in the future.

This is a time for asset allocation and sticking with your plan. Whether someone is just starting out, accumulating or FIRE'd you've got to know your asset allocation and stick to the plan.

well amazing is probably not the right word... but any logical reasonable answer that makes reasonable logical sense... ive yet to see one i have to say... i know i will be fine in the long run but i maybe pushing water uphill if my current beliefs are in anyway accurate... i want to be in a global fund... amercia is almost 60% of it... so their market effects it alot... at 10% below highest points i really think this is crazy in this current time and fail to see anything other than decline for some time

Well, I hope for your sake you didn't pull out of the market in March.



have you read my actual original thread? you come on to disagree without even understanding my current position..

Yes, I have.

You come here to tell us how market timing is OK when you think it's OK, despite literally every piece of market history we have showing otherwise.

It's your money - do what you want. You don't have to convince me.

if you did, your queation would now would not be asked would it.. so on that basis i dont believe you

i have not said that either... and since you also cannot put a reason up for the opposite.. il let you continue with other peoples cliches as your responses

ok...as I said before...it's your money...why you think you need to prove this to us...I don't know...

Jamese20

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 223
Re: Delusional markets stalling my start to aggressive investing
« Reply #71 on: May 01, 2020, 01:32:54 PM »
i havent made my mind up... just because i dont see very good answers back at me doesnt mean i have made my mind up.. i think my argument that due to the obvious elephant in the room right now that seemingly alot dont want to look at is there for all to see... i have yet to see a compelling argument for why the market will continue to stabilise and the current bull will continue... unless i have missed an amazing answer somewhere

You won't get an amazing answer Jamese20 (no offence everyone, my post won't be amazing either). No one can provide such an answer. If someone could then they would be able to predict exactly what will happen in the markets and they would be too busy making a fortune to post on here.

A bear market does feel like the end of the world or else it wouldn't have been a bear market. If no one ever panicked then markets wouldn't drop 20-30% in short periods. They would just plod along. The rise after that initial fall has been a bit crazy to say the least but if anyone was waiting for it to fall 50% then they may be disappointed. However there is nothing to say it won't fall 50% in the coming months. The point is you don't know.

I believe you are a UK poster? Why not keep going with your monthly payments and just feed any lump sum into something like Vanguard LifeStrategy 40 or 60 (% stocks) over the next twelve months if you've got access. That at least gets you started and underway. You can always make it more aggressive in the future.

This is a time for asset allocation and sticking with your plan. Whether someone is just starting out, accumulating or FIRE'd you've got to know your asset allocation and stick to the plan.

well amazing is probably not the right word... but any logical reasonable answer that makes reasonable logical sense... ive yet to see one i have to say... i know i will be fine in the long run but i maybe pushing water uphill if my current beliefs are in anyway accurate... i want to be in a global fund... amercia is almost 60% of it... so their market effects it alot... at 10% below highest points i really think this is crazy in this current time and fail to see anything other than decline for some time

Well, I hope for your sake you didn't pull out of the market in March.



have you read my actual original thread? you come on to disagree without even understanding my current position..

Yes, I have.

You come here to tell us how market timing is OK when you think it's OK, despite literally every piece of market history we have showing otherwise.

It's your money - do what you want. You don't have to convince me.

if you did, your queation would now would not be asked would it.. so on that basis i dont believe you

i have not said that either... and since you also cannot put a reason up for the opposite.. il let you continue with other peoples cliches as your responses

ok...as I said before...it's your money...why you think you need to prove this to us...I don't know...

here was me thinking this was called investor alley.. i think my post is just as valid as any investment forum discussion

JLee

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 6122
Re: Delusional markets stalling my start to aggressive investing
« Reply #72 on: May 01, 2020, 01:33:06 PM »
Hi all,

I know we should not time the market... but I really struggle to see how the markets are as high as they are when there is very little economic activity and with the S&P500 only 10% off its high.... do we even need to do any number crunching to see if the market is in crazy mode?

I have got myself setup and ready to go investing big each month to kick start my plans.. but i really feel like building my cash position until i see some remote sense in the markets.

I see years of decline ahead due to this virus and i do not see any sense in pumping fresh money in with markets so blatantly high vs the current climate? i know this is against the strategy we have bought into... but extreme conditions require different thinking.. and this virus has halted everyone

thoughts? and what are you all doing regarding this investment wise?

Also, for the record - your original post did not answer the single question I have posed in this thread:

Quote from: JLee
The S&P 500 is up ~26% in less than six weeks.  That doesn't sound like "halted" to me.

Even if it does, what makes you so sure that you will know when to get in?

What determines when you will "see some remote sense in the markets"? What's your determining factor to decide when to buy in?

Jamese20

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 223
Re: Delusional markets stalling my start to aggressive investing
« Reply #73 on: May 01, 2020, 01:35:22 PM »
Hi all,

I know we should not time the market... but I really struggle to see how the markets are as high as they are when there is very little economic activity and with the S&P500 only 10% off its high.... do we even need to do any number crunching to see if the market is in crazy mode?

I have got myself setup and ready to go investing big each month to kick start my plans.. but i really feel like building my cash position until i see some remote sense in the markets.

I see years of decline ahead due to this virus and i do not see any sense in pumping fresh money in with markets so blatantly high vs the current climate? i know this is against the strategy we have bought into... but extreme conditions require different thinking.. and this virus has halted everyone

thoughts? and what are you all doing regarding this investment wise?

Also, for the record - your original post did not answer the single question I have posed in this thread:

Quote from: JLee
The S&P 500 is up ~26% in less than six weeks.  That doesn't sound like "halted" to me.

Even if it does, what makes you so sure that you will know when to get in?

What determines when you will "see some remote sense in the markets"? What's your determining factor to decide when to buy in?

"I have got myself setup and ready to go investing big each month to kick start my plans.. but i really feel like building my cash position until i see some remote sense in the markets." - i would have thought it was obvious from this...

JLee

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 6122
Re: Delusional markets stalling my start to aggressive investing
« Reply #74 on: May 01, 2020, 01:36:29 PM »
Hi all,

I know we should not time the market... but I really struggle to see how the markets are as high as they are when there is very little economic activity and with the S&P500 only 10% off its high.... do we even need to do any number crunching to see if the market is in crazy mode?

I have got myself setup and ready to go investing big each month to kick start my plans.. but i really feel like building my cash position until i see some remote sense in the markets.

I see years of decline ahead due to this virus and i do not see any sense in pumping fresh money in with markets so blatantly high vs the current climate? i know this is against the strategy we have bought into... but extreme conditions require different thinking.. and this virus has halted everyone

thoughts? and what are you all doing regarding this investment wise?

Also, for the record - your original post did not answer the single question I have posed in this thread:

Quote from: JLee
The S&P 500 is up ~26% in less than six weeks.  That doesn't sound like "halted" to me.

Even if it does, what makes you so sure that you will know when to get in?

What determines when you will "see some remote sense in the markets"? What's your determining factor to decide when to buy in?

"I have got myself setup and ready to go investing big each month to kick start my plans.. but i really feel like building my cash position until i see some remote sense in the markets." - i would have thought it was obvious from this...

What determines when you will "see some remote sense in the markets"? What's your determining factor to decide when to buy in?

Jamese20

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 223
Re: Delusional markets stalling my start to aggressive investing
« Reply #75 on: May 01, 2020, 01:41:12 PM »
Hi all,

I know we should not time the market... but I really struggle to see how the markets are as high as they are when there is very little economic activity and with the S&P500 only 10% off its high.... do we even need to do any number crunching to see if the market is in crazy mode?

I have got myself setup and ready to go investing big each month to kick start my plans.. but i really feel like building my cash position until i see some remote sense in the markets.

I see years of decline ahead due to this virus and i do not see any sense in pumping fresh money in with markets so blatantly high vs the current climate? i know this is against the strategy we have bought into... but extreme conditions require different thinking.. and this virus has halted everyone

thoughts? and what are you all doing regarding this investment wise?

Also, for the record - your original post did not answer the single question I have posed in this thread:

Quote from: JLee
The S&P 500 is up ~26% in less than six weeks.  That doesn't sound like "halted" to me.

Even if it does, what makes you so sure that you will know when to get in?

What determines when you will "see some remote sense in the markets"? What's your determining factor to decide when to buy in?

"I have got myself setup and ready to go investing big each month to kick start my plans.. but i really feel like building my cash position until i see some remote sense in the markets." - i would have thought it was obvious from this...

What determines when you will "see some remote sense in the markets"? What's your determining factor to decide when to buy in?

something that resembles proportionate to the current mess we are all in... when it went down 30%... like other recessions (cosndering others are using these to back up their points) i expected it to go down further as time goes on considering most areas are in lockdown... didnt the us suffer 10% unemployment in the first 3 weeks?

Buffaloski Boris

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2117
  • Displaying your outrage accomplishes nothing.

Retire-Canada

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 7611
Re: Delusional markets stalling my start to aggressive investing
« Reply #77 on: May 01, 2020, 01:47:08 PM »
We need some Leonard Cohen to set the mood

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lin-a2lTelg

That makes the whole thread worth while. :-)

maizefolk

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4786
Re: Delusional markets stalling my start to aggressive investing
« Reply #78 on: May 01, 2020, 01:49:03 PM »
We need some Leonard Cohen to set the mood

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lin-a2lTelg

That makes the whole thread worth while. :-)

I am now convinced this entire thread was an elaborate set up for this song. Well done, BB.

caracarn

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1616
  • Age: 50
  • Location: Ohio
Re: Delusional markets stalling my start to aggressive investing
« Reply #79 on: May 01, 2020, 01:50:20 PM »
if you want to be literal... fine... ill even take your 80% as gospel for this for now.. 20% unemployment was the great depression figuree was it not? so on what basis are we not looking at another using your own numbers? 20% unemployment contributed to  stocks down 90% and suffering for many years did it not? if my history is right inititially? i am not advocating this will repeat... i am merely saying buying at these levels if i am just about to ramp up my investing seems maybe premature considering the current saga

Oh I'll bite it's Friday and I have not been on the forums in weeks.  Just to be clear this is all my thinking and viewpoint.

Demand has not gone away it is simple "frozen" to use your term.  That is vastly different than the Great Depression (GD).  People are not spending on certain things because they do not want to or are not personally financially able to, they are not because those things are closed, but when they open they will have business again and likely relatively quickly.  When the markets look ahead, this is what they understand.  The GD unemployment was likely much more spread out as the current figures are largely from retail, restaurants and other areas that had to shutter and could not be remote.  For others, if I use my personal situation as an example, we can work from home 100% effectively and the only thing that has changed is where I sit.  The same work is getting done.  Now certainly aspects of our business that require face to face customer interaction are impacted and I am not saying our revenues are down, but what I am saying is not one of our customers has said "COVID-19 has given me time to think and I realized I am not interested in your product after all".  They are all just waiting for when we can resume business and that demand can be acted on.  I believe this is the case for the vast majority of the operating businesses.  Will there be a period of lost earnings?  Of course.  Could the recovery of demand in certain segments be slower than anticipated?  Of course.  Could the demand in certain segments be faster than anticipated?  Of course.  The point it, we do not know and I think going through the exercise comparing a global pandemic in a era when technology allows do much commerce to happen remotely anyway to an era when everything had to be done in person because none of that technology was even possible or thought of seems like a fool's errand. 

We are all telling you the same thing, and even though you tell me you have not made up your mind, I challenge you sir that you are nit picking.  You are just arguing about exactly what you have made up your mind about, so I will go macro on you.  You have made up your mind that the upside/downside ratio of the current situation is weighed very heavily on the downside and you want us to agree with you.  You seem also to have made up your mind that if you just explain yourself properly we will all have the same aha moment you have had and agree with you.  Perhaps you have not gotten down to the micro level of your investments in a made decision, so that's where I tripped you up in my earlier post, but it is abundantly clear that you feel this is a bad time.

Buffaloski Boris

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2117
  • Displaying your outrage accomplishes nothing.
Re: Delusional markets stalling my start to aggressive investing
« Reply #80 on: May 01, 2020, 01:50:33 PM »
This topic has great promise!  We already have accusations of market timing, strongly held opinions, rick-rolling, and graphs.  All we need are accusations of illegitimacy, a guest visit from @sol , complaints of how this was all an evil plot by _____ politician followed by @arebelspy smacking us all upside the head and shutting the topic down. 

Will this topic become one of MMM Forum Legend?

Stay tuned.     

caracarn

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1616
  • Age: 50
  • Location: Ohio
Re: Delusional markets stalling my start to aggressive investing
« Reply #81 on: May 01, 2020, 01:52:16 PM »
Hi all,

I know we should not time the market... but I really struggle to see how the markets are as high as they are when there is very little economic activity and with the S&P500 only 10% off its high.... do we even need to do any number crunching to see if the market is in crazy mode?

I have got myself setup and ready to go investing big each month to kick start my plans.. but i really feel like building my cash position until i see some remote sense in the markets.

I see years of decline ahead due to this virus and i do not see any sense in pumping fresh money in with markets so blatantly high vs the current climate? i know this is against the strategy we have bought into... but extreme conditions require different thinking.. and this virus has halted everyone

thoughts? and what are you all doing regarding this investment wise?

Also, for the record - your original post did not answer the single question I have posed in this thread:

Quote from: JLee
The S&P 500 is up ~26% in less than six weeks.  That doesn't sound like "halted" to me.

Even if it does, what makes you so sure that you will know when to get in?

What determines when you will "see some remote sense in the markets"? What's your determining factor to decide when to buy in?

"I have got myself setup and ready to go investing big each month to kick start my plans.. but i really feel like building my cash position until i see some remote sense in the markets." - i would have thought it was obvious from this...

What determines when you will "see some remote sense in the markets"? What's your determining factor to decide when to buy in?

something that resembles proportionate to the current mess we are all in... when it went down 30%... like other recessions (cosndering others are using these to back up their points) i expected it to go down further as time goes on considering most areas are in lockdown... didnt the us suffer 10% unemployment in the first 3 weeks?
Yes and those are all sectors that were shutdown or heavily curtailed and make up about 10% of the labor force so this is not a mystery and completely expected by the actions taken and therefore understood and not causing any market panic.

caracarn

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1616
  • Age: 50
  • Location: Ohio
Re: Delusional markets stalling my start to aggressive investing
« Reply #82 on: May 01, 2020, 01:54:00 PM »
This topic has great promise!  We already have accusations of market timing, strongly held opinions, rick-rolling, and graphs.  All we need are accusations of illegitimacy, a guest visit from @sol , complaints of how this was all an evil plot by _____ politician followed by @arebelspy smacking us all upside the head and shutting the topic down. 

Will this topic become one of MMM Forum Legend?

Stay tuned.   
Your avatar fits very well with this post.  I can see you wringing your hands in gleeful anticipation just like the character as you wrote this.  :)

bwall

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 830
Re: Delusional markets stalling my start to aggressive investing
« Reply #83 on: May 01, 2020, 01:56:08 PM »
have you been out lately and taken a look around? nobody is doing anything...

Yes I have been out as I and everyone I know is still working and shopping, etc... Where I am there is no lock down and the few businesses that are closed are restaurants, bars, salons, barber shops and large mass gathering events like sports and concerts. There is less going on than usual, but "nobody is doing anything" is not accurate.

ok, if you want to knit pick.. people are out buying the bare minimums to survive only...

I know plenty of people making s***loads of money now. In Feb. they were making peanuts at their regular job. Now they're earning stupid money. It's not fair, but it's what some people are doing. YMMV.

bwall

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 830
Re: Delusional markets stalling my start to aggressive investing
« Reply #84 on: May 01, 2020, 01:56:29 PM »
This topic has great promise!  We already have accusations of market timing, strongly held opinions, rick-rolling, and graphs.  All we need are accusations of illegitimacy, a guest visit from @sol , complaints of how this was all an evil plot by _____ politician followed by @arebelspy smacking us all upside the head and shutting the topic down. 

Will this topic become one of MMM Forum Legend?

Stay tuned.   

THIS!!!!

nereo

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 13513
  • Location: Just south of Canada
    • Here's how you can support science today:
Re: Delusional markets stalling my start to aggressive investing
« Reply #85 on: May 01, 2020, 02:00:02 PM »

We need some Leonard Cohen to set the mood

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lin-a2lTelg

Damn, I knew what song this was going to be before I clicked ont he link.
Well played Buffaloski Boris!

Jamese20

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 223
Re: Delusional markets stalling my start to aggressive investing
« Reply #86 on: May 01, 2020, 02:04:47 PM »
if you want to be literal... fine... ill even take your 80% as gospel for this for now.. 20% unemployment was the great depression figuree was it not? so on what basis are we not looking at another using your own numbers? 20% unemployment contributed to  stocks down 90% and suffering for many years did it not? if my history is right inititially? i am not advocating this will repeat... i am merely saying buying at these levels if i am just about to ramp up my investing seems maybe premature considering the current saga

Oh I'll bite it's Friday and I have not been on the forums in weeks.  Just to be clear this is all my thinking and viewpoint.

Demand has not gone away it is simple "frozen" to use your term.  That is vastly different than the Great Depression (GD).  People are not spending on certain things because they do not want to or are not personally financially able to, they are not because those things are closed, but when they open they will have business again and likely relatively quickly.  When the markets look ahead, this is what they understand.  The GD unemployment was likely much more spread out as the current figures are largely from retail, restaurants and other areas that had to shutter and could not be remote.  For others, if I use my personal situation as an example, we can work from home 100% effectively and the only thing that has changed is where I sit.  The same work is getting done.  Now certainly aspects of our business that require face to face customer interaction are impacted and I am not saying our revenues are down, but what I am saying is not one of our customers has said "COVID-19 has given me time to think and I realized I am not interested in your product after all".  They are all just waiting for when we can resume business and that demand can be acted on.  I believe this is the case for the vast majority of the operating businesses.  Will there be a period of lost earnings?  Of course.  Could the recovery of demand in certain segments be slower than anticipated?  Of course.  Could the demand in certain segments be faster than anticipated?  Of course.  The point it, we do not know and I think going through the exercise comparing a global pandemic in a era when technology allows do much commerce to happen remotely anyway to an era when everything had to be done in person because none of that technology was even possible or thought of seems like a fool's errand. 

We are all telling you the same thing, and even though you tell me you have not made up your mind, I challenge you sir that you are nit picking.  You are just arguing about exactly what you have made up your mind about, so I will go macro on you.  You have made up your mind that the upside/downside ratio of the current situation is weighed very heavily on the downside and you want us to agree with you.  You seem also to have made up your mind that if you just explain yourself properly we will all have the same aha moment you have had and agree with you.  Perhaps you have not gotten down to the micro level of your investments in a made decision, so that's where I tripped you up in my earlier post, but it is abundantly clear that you feel this is a bad time.

i dont really care you agree or not... i just have yet to see any sensible case for how these current market levels are in anyway resembling the reality ... you talk about certain sectors.. it took one sector to create 3 years of decline did it not? we are talking about major multiple sectors..big retailers in my country already are 30% down on usual monthly demand and have been open all the way through the current crisis... the idea that just because your open the business wont struggle seems naive to me... there are very rare exceptions in any situation but demand is so low right now the effects are big in a negative way.

i am trying to see the case for why the market will stabilise and go up even ... sorry but folks havent really put up anything with any weight. you can say i have made my mind up... fine think what you like but i am telling my mind isnt made up otherwise i wouldnt pose the question... just because i am struggling to see a convincing argument from anyone including you doesnt mean i have made my mind up.. i am merely saying... your points dont seem convincing to me for reasons i just outlined

nereo

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 13513
  • Location: Just south of Canada
    • Here's how you can support science today:
Re: Delusional markets stalling my start to aggressive investing
« Reply #87 on: May 01, 2020, 02:10:15 PM »
Hi all,

I know we should not time the market... but I really struggle to see how the markets are as high as they are when there is very little economic activity and with the S&P500 only 10% off its high.... do we even need to do any number crunching to see if the market is in crazy mode?

I have got myself setup and ready to go investing big each month to kick start my plans.. but i really feel like building my cash position until i see some remote sense in the markets.

I see years of decline ahead due to this virus and i do not see any sense in pumping fresh money in with markets so blatantly high vs the current climate? i know this is against the strategy we have bought into... but extreme conditions require different thinking.. and this virus has halted everyone

thoughts? and what are you all doing regarding this investment wise?

Also, for the record - your original post did not answer the single question I have posed in this thread:

Quote from: JLee
The S&P 500 is up ~26% in less than six weeks.  That doesn't sound like "halted" to me.

Even if it does, what makes you so sure that you will know when to get in?

What determines when you will "see some remote sense in the markets"? What's your determining factor to decide when to buy in?

"I have got myself setup and ready to go investing big each month to kick start my plans.. but i really feel like building my cash position until i see some remote sense in the markets." - i would have thought it was obvious from this...

What determines when you will "see some remote sense in the markets"? What's your determining factor to decide when to buy in?

something that resembles proportionate to the current mess we are all in... when it went down 30%... like other recessions (cosndering others are using these to back up their points) i expected it to go down further as time goes on considering most areas are in lockdown... didnt the us suffer 10% unemployment in the first 3 weeks?

That's not a plan, at least not one you could write into your IPS. 
I really, really hope you think a bit deeper at this, because the hallmark of investors who hold cash expecting the markets to drop further and yet wind up missing the ride back up is the don't have a clear, defined plan on when to get back in.  Will you get back in if it matches the low on mid-march?  Does it need to fall further?  If so, by how miuch?  What if it drops 10% and then goes sideways for a while... what then?  If there's a sudden uptick of cases do you readjust your 'buy-in' point?  Conversely if a new treatment comes out that cuts mortality in half do you change your position? 

You've mentioned markets in other recessions dropping 30%.  Ok, first no true that's been the case for all recessions, but to a broader point we **have already seen a 30% drop, followed by a modest rebound.  So... how does this fall into that?

how are you inputting new information, and how can you account for new information faster than the hedge fund managers that do it in miliseconds? 

Just full disclosure, I'm of the opinion that we are likely to see a drop from today's market value of ~2800 (SP500).  How much, how far, and by when.... ::shrug:: 




Jamese20

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 223
Re: Delusional markets stalling my start to aggressive investing
« Reply #88 on: May 01, 2020, 02:15:13 PM »
Hi all,

I know we should not time the market... but I really struggle to see how the markets are as high as they are when there is very little economic activity and with the S&P500 only 10% off its high.... do we even need to do any number crunching to see if the market is in crazy mode?

I have got myself setup and ready to go investing big each month to kick start my plans.. but i really feel like building my cash position until i see some remote sense in the markets.

I see years of decline ahead due to this virus and i do not see any sense in pumping fresh money in with markets so blatantly high vs the current climate? i know this is against the strategy we have bought into... but extreme conditions require different thinking.. and this virus has halted everyone

thoughts? and what are you all doing regarding this investment wise?

Also, for the record - your original post did not answer the single question I have posed in this thread:

Quote from: JLee
The S&P 500 is up ~26% in less than six weeks.  That doesn't sound like "halted" to me.

Even if it does, what makes you so sure that you will know when to get in?

What determines when you will "see some remote sense in the markets"? What's your determining factor to decide when to buy in?

"I have got myself setup and ready to go investing big each month to kick start my plans.. but i really feel like building my cash position until i see some remote sense in the markets." - i would have thought it was obvious from this...

What determines when you will "see some remote sense in the markets"? What's your determining factor to decide when to buy in?

something that resembles proportionate to the current mess we are all in... when it went down 30%... like other recessions (cosndering others are using these to back up their points) i expected it to go down further as time goes on considering most areas are in lockdown... didnt the us suffer 10% unemployment in the first 3 weeks?

That's not a plan, at least not one you could write into your IPS. 
I really, really hope you think a bit deeper at this, because the hallmark of investors who hold cash expecting the markets to drop further and yet wind up missing the ride back up is the don't have a clear, defined plan on when to get back in.  Will you get back in if it matches the low on mid-march?  Does it need to fall further?  If so, by how miuch?  What if it drops 10% and then goes sideways for a while... what then?  If there's a sudden uptick of cases do you readjust your 'buy-in' point?  Conversely if a new treatment comes out that cuts mortality in half do you change your position? 

You've mentioned markets in other recessions dropping 30%.  Ok, first no true that's been the case for all recessions, but to a broader point we **have already seen a 30% drop, followed by a modest rebound.  So... how does this fall into that?

how are you inputting new information, and how can you account for new information faster than the hedge fund managers that do it in miliseconds? 

Just full disclosure, I'm of the opinion that we are likely to see a drop from today's market value of ~2800 (SP500).  How much, how far, and by when.... ::shrug::

Hi, isn't this here me showing I am thinking deeply? I have also stated once I start thats it...i have done nothing with my pension pots for instance its all in stocks. I feel at this moment in time the current levels are just delusional and not in reality.. Therefore why handicap the start of my second pot? Maybe they can stay delusional until they are no longer delusional? But I doubt it when business earnings are generally going to be terrible therefore the current evidence suggests a decline of alot lower than it is now..

nereo

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 13513
  • Location: Just south of Canada
    • Here's how you can support science today:
Re: Delusional markets stalling my start to aggressive investing
« Reply #89 on: May 01, 2020, 02:21:10 PM »
...well I've done my best.  Anyone else?

waltworks

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4254
Re: Delusional markets stalling my start to aggressive investing
« Reply #90 on: May 01, 2020, 02:25:24 PM »
Nah, you tried. The rest of us gave up and started with the Rick-Rolling and general shenanigans a ways back.

I always sort of shake my head at these threads where people say "well it just seems overvalued" and when you ask them what value they'd buy back in they don't even know/haven't thought about it. As if somehow so far in life *not having a plan* has generally worked out.

Innumeracy and paranoia are a bad combination.

-W

erutio

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 610
Re: Delusional markets stalling my start to aggressive investing
« Reply #91 on: May 01, 2020, 02:38:24 PM »
If you think the stocks are currently overvalued, what did you think back in January, when the PE ratios were higher?  Weren't you putting your money in via your pension then?

Jamese20

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 223
Re: Delusional markets stalling my start to aggressive investing
« Reply #92 on: May 01, 2020, 02:43:56 PM »
If you think the stocks are currently overvalued, what did you think back in January, when the PE ratios were higher?  Weren't you putting your money in via your pension then?

Covered this already.. Still waiting for a reason for why this market won't go down that adds up... Instead it's just overbearing patronising high horse type responses.. Mainly because they don't have a response that adds up other than finance blog owners clichés

JLee

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 6122
Re: Delusional markets stalling my start to aggressive investing
« Reply #93 on: May 01, 2020, 02:48:15 PM »
If you think the stocks are currently overvalued, what did you think back in January, when the PE ratios were higher?  Weren't you putting your money in via your pension then?

Covered this already.. Still waiting for a reason for why this market won't go down that adds up... Instead it's just overbearing patronising high horse type responses.. Mainly because they don't have a response that adds up other than finance blog owners clichés

Well, excuse me if "the entire history of investing" is not good enough for you.

caracarn

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1616
  • Age: 50
  • Location: Ohio
Re: Delusional markets stalling my start to aggressive investing
« Reply #94 on: May 01, 2020, 02:52:00 PM »
If you think the stocks are currently overvalued, what did you think back in January, when the PE ratios were higher?  Weren't you putting your money in via your pension then?

Covered this already.. Still waiting for a reason for why this market won't go down that adds up... Instead it's just overbearing patronising high horse type responses.. Mainly because they don't have a response that adds up other than finance blog owners clichés
I am throwing in the towel.  No one is giving you a reason because that's something you think about if you are trying to time the market.  Since we do not, we do not waste brain cycles on figuring out the future as that is impossible.  I can only speak for myself.  I do not care if it crashes and burns or if it goes gang busters, I am comfortable with my version of "aggressive investing" which is the same thing I have done for thirty years and not going to stop now.  I continue to put money in every week.   

Sorry you feel we are partonizing.  We are offering sound advice based on historical studies that are talked about on these forums over and over.  If you are interested they are there for you to find.  There are also financial forums that cater to this speculation that might feel less patronizing to you, but in this case we are not going to give you what you want.

Wolfpack Mustachian

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 740
Re: Delusional markets stalling my start to aggressive investing
« Reply #95 on: May 01, 2020, 03:00:37 PM »
Hi all,

I know we should not time the market... but I really struggle to see how the markets are as high as they are when there is very little economic activity and with the S&P500 only 10% off its high.... do we even need to do any number crunching to see if the market is in crazy mode?

I have got myself setup and ready to go investing big each month to kick start my plans.. but i really feel like building my cash position until i see some remote sense in the markets.

I see years of decline ahead due to this virus and i do not see any sense in pumping fresh money in with markets so blatantly high vs the current climate? i know this is against the strategy we have bought into... but extreme conditions require different thinking.. and this virus has halted everyone

thoughts? and what are you all doing regarding this investment wise?

Also, for the record - your original post did not answer the single question I have posed in this thread:

Quote from: JLee
The S&P 500 is up ~26% in less than six weeks.  That doesn't sound like "halted" to me.

Even if it does, what makes you so sure that you will know when to get in?

What determines when you will "see some remote sense in the markets"? What's your determining factor to decide when to buy in?

"I have got myself setup and ready to go investing big each month to kick start my plans.. but i really feel like building my cash position until i see some remote sense in the markets." - i would have thought it was obvious from this...

What determines when you will "see some remote sense in the markets"? What's your determining factor to decide when to buy in?

something that resembles proportionate to the current mess we are all in... when it went down 30%... like other recessions (cosndering others are using these to back up their points) i expected it to go down further as time goes on considering most areas are in lockdown... didnt the us suffer 10% unemployment in the first 3 weeks?

That's not a plan, at least not one you could write into your IPS. 
I really, really hope you think a bit deeper at this, because the hallmark of investors who hold cash expecting the markets to drop further and yet wind up missing the ride back up is the don't have a clear, defined plan on when to get back in.  Will you get back in if it matches the low on mid-march?  Does it need to fall further?  If so, by how miuch?  What if it drops 10% and then goes sideways for a while... what then?  If there's a sudden uptick of cases do you readjust your 'buy-in' point?  Conversely if a new treatment comes out that cuts mortality in half do you change your position? 

You've mentioned markets in other recessions dropping 30%.  Ok, first no true that's been the case for all recessions, but to a broader point we **have already seen a 30% drop, followed by a modest rebound.  So... how does this fall into that?

how are you inputting new information, and how can you account for new information faster than the hedge fund managers that do it in miliseconds? 

Just full disclosure, I'm of the opinion that we are likely to see a drop from today's market value of ~2800 (SP500).  How much, how far, and by when.... ::shrug::

Hi, isn't this here me showing I am thinking deeply? I have also stated once I start thats it...i have done nothing with my pension pots for instance its all in stocks. I feel at this moment in time the current levels are just delusional and not in reality.. Therefore why handicap the start of my second pot? Maybe they can stay delusional until they are no longer delusional? But I doubt it when business earnings are generally going to be terrible therefore the current evidence suggests a decline of alot lower than it is now..

Can you answer this simple question: What metric will you use to trigger you that it's time to buy?

If you can't answer that question, then you need to admit that you have no metric to trigger you getting into the market, and you might as well get in now, even if you could get better returns by waiting a little bit. The alternative is indefinite waiting, which is losing money becuase you're money is devaluing from inflation.

Jamese20

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 223
Re: Delusional markets stalling my start to aggressive investing
« Reply #96 on: May 01, 2020, 03:14:33 PM »
If you think the stocks are currently overvalued, what did you think back in January, when the PE ratios were higher?  Weren't you putting your money in via your pension then?

Covered this already.. Still waiting for a reason for why this market won't go down that adds up... Instead it's just overbearing patronising high horse type responses.. Mainly because they don't have a response that adds up other than finance blog owners clichés
I am throwing in the towel.  No one is giving you a reason because that's something you think about if you are trying to time the market.  Since we do not, we do not waste brain cycles on figuring out the future as that is impossible.  I can only speak for myself.  I do not care if it crashes and burns or if it goes gang busters, I am comfortable with my version of "aggressive investing" which is the same thing I have done for thirty years and not going to stop now.  I continue to put money in every week.   

Sorry you feel we are partonizing.  We are offering sound advice based on historical studies that are talked about on these forums over and over.  If you are interested they are there for you to find.  There are also financial forums that cater to this speculation that might feel less patronizing to you, but in this case we are not going to give you what you want.

Not everyone is but clearly some are patronising and trying to be cute.. Mainly because they don't have a response that mitigates the one I originally pointed out... Economic coma and ma's unemployment vs... Well nothing other than cliches

I see very little risk in seeing what transpires and once I start investing I won't think anymore on it

Buffaloski Boris

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2117
  • Displaying your outrage accomplishes nothing.
Re: Delusional markets stalling my start to aggressive investing
« Reply #97 on: May 01, 2020, 03:15:21 PM »
This topic has great promise!  We already have accusations of market timing, strongly held opinions, rick-rolling, and graphs.  All we need are accusations of illegitimacy, a guest visit from @sol , complaints of how this was all an evil plot by _____ politician followed by @arebelspy smacking us all upside the head and shutting the topic down. 

Will this topic become one of MMM Forum Legend?

Stay tuned.   
Your avatar fits very well with this post.  I can see you wringing your hands in gleeful anticipation just like the character as you wrote this.  :)

You know it!  There's not much more that I look forward to than a MMM thread that goes completely off the rails.  This one has promise.  Hopefully the mods are off getting drunk doing something great for humanity. 

John Galt incarnate!

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1502
  • Location: On Cloud Nine
Re: Delusional markets stalling my start to aggressive investing
« Reply #98 on: May 01, 2020, 03:23:09 PM »
Hi all,

I know we should not time the market... but I really struggle to see how the markets are as high as they are when there is very little economic activity and with the S&P500 only 10% off its high.... do we even need to do any number crunching to see if the market is in crazy mode?

I have got myself setup and ready to go investing big each month to kick start my plans.. but i really feel like building my cash position until i see some remote sense in the markets.

I see years of decline ahead due to this virus and i do not see any sense in pumping fresh money in with markets so blatantly high vs the current climate? i know this is against the strategy we have bought into... but extreme conditions require different thinking.. and this virus has halted everyone

thoughts? and what are you all doing regarding this investment wise?


OP, below are my thoughts and actions.


1. I think (but do not know)  the United States  is in the nascent stage of  an  economic depression due to the COVID-19  pandemic, a black swan event.

2. If  my thinking is correct I know that I do not know how protracted or deep the economic depression will be.

3. I do know that 50-60% of the time the stock market's highest  surges occur within just weeks of its deepest plunges.

4. I also know that since ~1930  the total return of the S&P 500   is ~14,962%.

5.  And I know  that  an investor's  total return would be an unimaginably paltry ~91% if they were not invested in  the S&P 500 on its  10 best days in each  decade  since ~1930.

Based on the uncertainty of 1 and 2, and the factuality  of 3, 4, and 5, I continue to buy stock (FSKAX) every month according to my "regular" investment plan.

And I've also been buying "extra" stocks on days of extraordinary stock market plunges.
« Last Edit: May 01, 2020, 03:52:06 PM by John Galt incarnate! »

Body Surfer

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 101
Re: Delusional markets stalling my start to aggressive investing
« Reply #99 on: May 01, 2020, 04:14:38 PM »
OP- Q2 business earnings will be horrible. Yes the market could very well start another nosedive. Our market might be sideways for the next 10-15 which will end FIRE for those in the lower percentages of the retirement goals. But nobody here wants to even think of that dreadful scenario. But this scenario is a very likely outcome. The market does not go up decade after decade like the last 10 years. Probably won't again for awhile.