Author Topic: Delusional markets stalling my start to aggressive investing  (Read 4910 times)

Jamese20

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Hi all,

I know we should not time the market... but I really struggle to see how the markets are as high as they are when there is very little economic activity and with the S&P500 only 10% off its high.... do we even need to do any number crunching to see if the market is in crazy mode?

I have got myself setup and ready to go investing big each month to kick start my plans.. but i really feel like building my cash position until i see some remote sense in the markets.

I see years of decline ahead due to this virus and i do not see any sense in pumping fresh money in with markets so blatantly high vs the current climate? i know this is against the strategy we have bought into... but extreme conditions require different thinking.. and this virus has halted everyone

thoughts? and what are you all doing regarding this investment wise?

reeshau

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Re: Delusional markets stalling my start to aggressive investing
« Reply #1 on: May 01, 2020, 02:30:11 AM »
I have got myself setup and ready to go investing big each month to kick start my plans.. but i really feel like building my cash position until i see some remote sense in the markets.

If you're waiting for this, you'll be waiting forever.

Yes, the markets are only down 10%...now...but they were down 30% at the end of March.  Where was your money then?  Were you also waiting at that point?  If that didn't trigger you to invest *something*, you will never get off the starting blocks.

You are struggling with looking at economic conditions now, outside your window and on the news.  But the market is looking forward one year, to what it collectively thinks the recovery will look like.  Only, that's not a very long time either.  The wisdom of the approach not to time the market is to instead think: "in a decade, none of this will have mattered."  Which is not to say things won't change over time, or that we will naively go back exactly to how things were in 2019.  But there are plenty of scary / world-changing events in the past, and it was the wrong move, long term, to have held off investing while they were in progress.

But...

You also need to be able to sleep at night.  Maybe you aren't cut out for investment in the markets.  Or, at least, maybe you aren't cut out to go in 100%, and then ride your ulcers through to the fastest path to FI.  Consider these thoughts more about your asset allocation than a market timing question.  For your own mental and physical health, you might need to slow down your on-paper FI path, and get into something safer with some of your money.  How much?  Enough that you can sleep at night during events like this.

If you are absolutely frozen, put in 50% of your money now, and wait until Q2 earnings are in at the end of July to invest the other half.  But understand, the market will likely be higher then, because whatever the recovery looks like, it will be 3 months closer by then.  Or find the right size of buckets to commit to doing it, but do it this summer.  Your alternative is to use the free time you've gained by being at home to become a full-time market analyst / economist, only you need a few years' seasoning to be any good, so that's probably not going to happen in time, either.

Many people have had the same feelings.  It happens every downturn.  It's a good thing--you need to have your convictions tested, in order to find out your true feelings.  Invest as you will--stocks, real estate, bonds, CD's--but waiting for the perfect moment is a fool's errand.  It's likely to pass you by before you ever recognize it.

Jamese20

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Re: Delusional markets stalling my start to aggressive investing
« Reply #2 on: May 01, 2020, 02:57:23 AM »
I have got myself setup and ready to go investing big each month to kick start my plans.. but i really feel like building my cash position until i see some remote sense in the markets.

If you're waiting for this, you'll be waiting forever.

Yes, the markets are only down 10%...now...but they were down 30% at the end of March.  Where was your money then?  Were you also waiting at that point?  If that didn't trigger you to invest *something*, you will never get off the starting blocks.

You are struggling with looking at economic conditions now, outside your window and on the news.  But the market is looking forward one year, to what it collectively thinks the recovery will look like.  Only, that's not a very long time either.  The wisdom of the approach not to time the market is to instead think: "in a decade, none of this will have mattered."  Which is not to say things won't change over time, or that we will naively go back exactly to how things were in 2019.  But there are plenty of scary / world-changing events in the past, and it was the wrong move, long term, to have held off investing while they were in progress.

But...

You also need to be able to sleep at night.  Maybe you aren't cut out for investment in the markets.  Or, at least, maybe you aren't cut out to go in 100%, and then ride your ulcers through to the fastest path to FI.  Consider these thoughts more about your asset allocation than a market timing question.  For your own mental and physical health, you might need to slow down your on-paper FI path, and get into something safer with some of your money.  How much?  Enough that you can sleep at night during events like this.

If you are absolutely frozen, put in 50% of your money now, and wait until Q2 earnings are in at the end of July to invest the other half.  But understand, the market will likely be higher then, because whatever the recovery looks like, it will be 3 months closer by then.  Or find the right size of buckets to commit to doing it, but do it this summer.  Your alternative is to use the free time you've gained by being at home to become a full-time market analyst / economist, only you need a few years' seasoning to be any good, so that's probably not going to happen in time, either.

Many people have had the same feelings.  It happens every downturn.  It's a good thing--you need to have your convictions tested, in order to find out your true feelings.  Invest as you will--stocks, real estate, bonds, CD's--but waiting for the perfect moment is a fool's errand.  It's likely to pass you by before you ever recognize it.

for clarity i have pensions all in stocks etc... i wont be budging or making any changes and continuing... i have not been waiting i have been setting myself to begin investing onto the 2nd phase and build my pot. once i start i will just go along every month and will barely look. This situation is not like any other.. this isnt a failing market this is entire frozen economy, something that i do not even think has even closely happened before and the biggest market has only dropped 10%? even jl collins says in his big ugly event post that if you see some crazy things happening its good to take your chips off the table.... i think he is talking about this moment right here to be honest.

i wont be waiiting forever but i really dont see any validity in dumping my cash into a crazy bubble right now that i can only see bursting and bursting over a period of years not months... stocks in the long run are based on earnings increasing.. what business is going to have improved earnings like the market is showing in this current crisis? countries have decided to actively shutdown and i do not think there are many smart people on the levers of power who understand just what they have done


reeshau

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Re: Delusional markets stalling my start to aggressive investing
« Reply #3 on: May 01, 2020, 03:11:51 AM »
countries have decided to actively shutdown and i do not think there are many smart people on the levers of power who understand just what they have done

Well, I've said my piece.  You certainly aren't the only one asking these questions.  In the end, you will do what you are comfortable with.

Regarding the line above, though:  by the same token, this economic crisis could be over tomorrow as countries decide to turn things on again.  There is no underlying economic problem preventing economic growth:  it is a side effect of the health management decisions.  You are right in that this time is different, in this way.  Perhaps 9/11 or SARS are the closest analogs, but still far away.  But it could deviate positively (in recovery) as well as it could negatively.  The market is where people place their bets on which way it will go.

Jamese20

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Re: Delusional markets stalling my start to aggressive investing
« Reply #4 on: May 01, 2020, 03:17:19 AM »
countries have decided to actively shutdown and i do not think there are many smart people on the levers of power who understand just what they have done

Well, I've said my piece.  You certainly aren't the only one asking these questions.  In the end, you will do what you are comfortable with.

Regarding the line above, though:  by the same token, this economic crisis could be over tomorrow as countries decide to turn things on again.  There is no underlying economic problem preventing economic growth:  it is a side effect of the health management decisions.  You are right in that this time is different, in this way.  Perhaps 9/11 or SARS are the closest analogs, but still far away.  But it could deviate positively (in recovery) as well as it could negatively.  The market is where people place their bets on which way it will go.

appreciate your thoughts mate.. the idea tomorrow we can turn the economy on like a tap seems abit naive to me i have to say... i dont believe economy works in this way

VaCPA

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Re: Delusional markets stalling my start to aggressive investing
« Reply #5 on: May 01, 2020, 05:48:43 AM »
Many people have had the same feelings.  It happens every downturn.  It's a good thing--you need to have your convictions tested, in order to find out your true feelings.  Invest as you will--stocks, real estate, bonds, CD's--but waiting for the perfect moment is a fool's errand.  It's likely to pass you by before you ever recognize it.
What actually happens practically every big downtown is there's an initial drop, then a short-lived bounce-back, then another big drop. It happened in 01-02 and 08-09. I'm not saying it'll happen this time, but food for thought. The market does seem a little irrational to me too, but mainly because there's so much uncertainty with the path forward. How many bankruptcies will we see? How many foreclosures will we start seeing later this year especially once the CARE Act unemployment stuff expires in July? Will there be another wave over the fall/winter spooking everyone again? The problem is this stuff will play out very slowly over a period of months and the market can't just do nothing, so right now it's reacting to the short-term good news coming out: massive fed stimulus, getting past the virus peak hopefully, possible effective medical treatments, etc

Steeze

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Re: Delusional markets stalling my start to aggressive investing
« Reply #6 on: May 01, 2020, 06:29:39 AM »
Set up those automatic purchases and move on. Buy some now, buy some at 50% down, buy some along the way, buy some when the Top Is In, buy, buy ,buy.

If "Now" makes you uncomfortable, then make the purchases smaller and more frequent - every day even, why not? How much do you want to invest this year, divide that by the number of weekdays in a year, and set up an auto purchase for each day of the week. Set it up and forget about it. Spend less time thinking about investing, that is my goal anyway.

Wolfpack Mustachian

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Re: Delusional markets stalling my start to aggressive investing
« Reply #7 on: May 01, 2020, 06:58:52 AM »
Set up those automatic purchases and move on. Buy some now, buy some at 50% down, buy some along the way, buy some when the Top Is In, buy, buy ,buy.

If "Now" makes you uncomfortable, then make the purchases smaller and more frequent - every day even, why not? How much do you want to invest this year, divide that by the number of weekdays in a year, and set up an auto purchase for each day of the week. Set it up and forget about it. Spend less time thinking about investing, that is my goal anyway.

+1

Always always always have regular purchases set up at set frequencies that you don't have to think about that will buy in at the 30% drop at times, the 10% drop at others, higher at times. If you really want to time things, set aside maybe 10% or 25% or what you'd like of that to time, but keep things going while you're hesitant. Ideally, you'd do 95% or 100% like this, but if saving some of it to allow you to feel some control helps you to do that, then go for it. Keep investing, though. Don't hold all of your money, or you'll end up like our friend thorstach.........

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/top-is-in/

waltworks

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Re: Delusional markets stalling my start to aggressive investing
« Reply #8 on: May 01, 2020, 08:51:29 AM »
"This time is different"... you say, every time there's a significant market drop/war/world changing event.

And hey, guess what? You're right! The world is different every freaking day! It's been different every day for thousands of years, with all sorts of crazy bad and good stuff happening all the time.

And yet, civilization basically keeps trudging forward. People live longer healthier lives, with more fun things to do and less work. It's somehow, despite pandemics, world wars, nuclear weapons, etc, etc *still the best time ever to be alive*.

If you believe in humanity, and you want to get rich, you just invest for the long run and don't worry about the noise.

If you really think Covid19 is the end of civilization, you quit your job to move to Idaho with as much dried food and ammo as you can buy with your liquidated investments.

-W

bbqbonelesswing

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Re: Delusional markets stalling my start to aggressive investing
« Reply #10 on: May 01, 2020, 09:48:47 AM »
Reminder: equities markets don’t stop at the US border. If you think the valuations for the US market are bat**** crazy, then there is a whole, big world of equities out there where the valuations measured by CAPE and PE ratios are a lot lower.

vand

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Re: Delusional markets stalling my start to aggressive investing
« Reply #11 on: May 01, 2020, 10:25:15 AM »
Dude, seriously.

You are one of the most fortunate people in the world. You have no idea how many other people would kill to have their biggest regret to be missing out on a stock rally right now.

The markets don't owe you anything at all.

In my experience there are two types of investor in this world:

Those who unflinchingly accept the going price, put their money where their mouth and patiently wait for the long term growth can expect their investments to compound and their mistakes to shrink over time.

Those who are always looking for a better deal, always trying to short change the market or feels entitled to outwit the market at each turn can expect their mistakes to compound and their investments returns to shrink over time.

Choose which type of investor you want to be.

Stimpy

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Re: Delusional markets stalling my start to aggressive investing
« Reply #12 on: May 01, 2020, 10:36:52 AM »
Think most everyone has done a pretty good summary.

either A) Stay out, and like that say in May, go away (from the market that is)
B) Invest steadily (Pick a frame, and just start tossing cash in, however much you want, just be consistent)*
C) Learn value(or another investment) strategy(ies), and Invest (much like B but not quite as steady, but you still, more often then not, have something in or going in.)

Me personally I do a bit of B and C.   Why wait when you could be missing out on a golden opportunity?

*Most popular method on this forum and highly recommended!

Jamese20

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Re: Delusional markets stalling my start to aggressive investing
« Reply #13 on: May 01, 2020, 10:40:18 AM »
"This time is different"... you say, every time there's a significant market drop/war/world changing event.

And hey, guess what? You're right! The world is different every freaking day! It's been different every day for thousands of years, with all sorts of crazy bad and good stuff happening all the time.

And yet, civilization basically keeps trudging forward. People live longer healthier lives, with more fun things to do and less work. It's somehow, despite pandemics, world wars, nuclear weapons, etc, etc *still the best time ever to be alive*.

If you believe in humanity, and you want to get rich, you just invest for the long run and don't worry about the noise.

If you really think Covid19 is the end of civilization, you quit your job to move to Idaho with as much dried food and ammo as you can buy with your liquidated investments.

-W

im not saying its the end of civilisation my friend.. i am simplky suggesting that it is depression time for us in this climate and the next 3-5 years the returns i feel will go south not up... i see another dotcom type or worse scenario of 3-4 declining years... the reality has not hit the markets yet and 10% below the highs seems evidently obsurd... why give myself a handicap? i accept its market timing but i also can see how obvious this is a japan style bubble... unless someone can explain how a frozen economy is in the same shape as may 2019?
« Last Edit: May 01, 2020, 10:42:00 AM by Jamese20 »

waltworks

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Re: Delusional markets stalling my start to aggressive investing
« Reply #14 on: May 01, 2020, 10:44:40 AM »
im not saying its the end of civilisation my friend.. i am simplky suggesting that it is depression time for us in this climate and the next 3-5 years the returns i feel will go south not up... i see another dotcom type or worse scenario of 3-4 declining years... the reality has not hit the markets yet and 10% below the highs seems evidently obsurd... why give myself a handicap? i accept its market timing but i also can see how obvious this is a japan style bubble... unless someone can explain how a frozen economy is in the same shape as may 2019?

Have fun working forever then. There will always be plenty of bad news to freak out about.

Hell, even Bob made money... https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2014/02/worlds-worst-market-timer/

-W

waltworks

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Re: Delusional markets stalling my start to aggressive investing
« Reply #15 on: May 01, 2020, 10:46:45 AM »
im not saying its the end of civilisation my friend.. i am simplky suggesting that it is depression time for us in this climate and the next 3-5 years the returns i feel will go south not up... i see another dotcom type or worse scenario of 3-4 declining years... the reality has not hit the markets yet and 10% below the highs seems evidently obsurd... why give myself a handicap? i accept its market timing but i also can see how obvious this is a japan style bubble... unless someone can explain how a frozen economy is in the same shape as may 2019?

Have fun working forever then. There will always be plenty of bad news to freak out about. Describing yourself as an "aggressive" investor is hilarious.

As BB points out, too, you can always buy VXUS/VTIAX. Much more reasonable valuations in general.

Hell, even Bob made money... https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2014/02/worlds-worst-market-timer/

-W

Jamese20

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Re: Delusional markets stalling my start to aggressive investing
« Reply #16 on: May 01, 2020, 10:52:15 AM »
im not saying its the end of civilisation my friend.. i am simplky suggesting that it is depression time for us in this climate and the next 3-5 years the returns i feel will go south not up... i see another dotcom type or worse scenario of 3-4 declining years... the reality has not hit the markets yet and 10% below the highs seems evidently obsurd... why give myself a handicap? i accept its market timing but i also can see how obvious this is a japan style bubble... unless someone can explain how a frozen economy is in the same shape as may 2019?

Have fun working forever then. There will always be plenty of bad news to freak out about.

Hell, even Bob made money... https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2014/02/worlds-worst-market-timer/

-W

so it appears you cannot explain how may 2019 is in the same state as now? no other time has the globel frozen their economy... each downturn still had the economy up and running trying to get out of the decline...

i am not freaking out either fyi... just working out the reality... blind close my eyes type false optimism doesnt seem that useful at this moment in my opinion

waltworks

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Re: Delusional markets stalling my start to aggressive investing
« Reply #17 on: May 01, 2020, 10:55:49 AM »
I'm indifferent to the current state of the economy, because I'm investing for 20+ years. It sounds like you are just starting your investing journey, so presumably your time horizon is equally long. What will your 2050 self want to tell you today? Mine is telling me "thanks for sticking with the consistent investing, bro."

Go read about Bob.

-W

Stimpy

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Re: Delusional markets stalling my start to aggressive investing
« Reply #18 on: May 01, 2020, 11:00:40 AM »
unless someone can explain how a frozen economy is in the same shape as may 2019?
It won't be, and honestly who cares.  If the economy took a dump that's not a bad thing (for investing anyway).   Look at Buffet, or any of the other investors (not traders) they are starting to see DEALS.   They KNOW it's not time to get all the way in, but they are ALSO nibbling here and there. 

If the market dropped 90% and the economy was just as wacky would you invest?   (Sarcastic Answer: but stocks could drop MORE!)
What if the market jump back 150% 2 months later.  Would you invest then?      (Sarcastic Answer: But what if they drop tomorrow, I'd lose it all!)

If not now WHEN?   That is the question you are answering by saying never.     So my suggestion is to just not invest.  You obviously won't find the right time, and never will.

Or you could take the advice here and just start putting money in.  You don't know what will happen tomorrow.  Or the next day, or two years from now.  Your better off with something in the market then not..

(https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2014/02/worlds-worst-market-timer/)


Jamese20

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Re: Delusional markets stalling my start to aggressive investing
« Reply #19 on: May 01, 2020, 11:01:04 AM »
I'm indifferent to the current state of the economy, because I'm investing for 20+ years. It sounds like you are just starting your investing journey, so presumably your time horizon is equally long. What will your 2050 self want to tell you today? Mine is telling me "thanks for sticking with the consistent investing, bro."

Go read about Bob.

-W

it feels you are not really reading my overall point, i am not intending to sit on any sidelines.. but i cannot think of any realistic scenario where we dont have declining few years in terms of stocks... the unrerlying assets are going to suffer in the short term for a couple of years and unemployment levels will be testing depression time

once i start thats it.. i may even just think "fuck it" and start investing any point this year and when I do that will be it.. off i go each month and wont even look. I still think it is wise to consider that at this clear and evident foolish level of pricing at the moment... to consider getting maximum value for my buck

waltworks

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Re: Delusional markets stalling my start to aggressive investing
« Reply #20 on: May 01, 2020, 11:05:05 AM »
Again, with that attitude, you will never be able to bring yourself to invest (I mean, you didn't invest when stocks were 20% cheaper just a few weeks ago, right?)

You're not going to predict the short term fluctuations of the market (meaning, under 5 years). So don't try. Make an IPS and figure out an asset allocation you can sleep at night with and just start going.

-W

Jamese20

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Re: Delusional markets stalling my start to aggressive investing
« Reply #21 on: May 01, 2020, 11:07:11 AM »
unless someone can explain how a frozen economy is in the same shape as may 2019?
  Your better off with something in the market then not..

not if the market drops continiously for the next few years.. i will be considerably worse off - i dont see how it cannot go anywhere but down right now... 10% off the top during this time and we dont if it will go down or not? really? i think we do tbh... earnings will be battered and therefore what choice does it have then?

Jamese20

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Re: Delusional markets stalling my start to aggressive investing
« Reply #22 on: May 01, 2020, 11:08:41 AM »
Again, with that attitude, you will never be able to bring yourself to invest (I mean, you didn't invest when stocks were 20% cheaper just a few weeks ago, right?)

You're not going to predict the short term fluctuations of the market (meaning, under 5 years). So don't try. Make an IPS and figure out an asset allocation you can sleep at night with and just start going.

-W
i wasnt ready a few weeks ago.. i still have to wait another 2 weeks at this current time...

waltworks

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Re: Delusional markets stalling my start to aggressive investing
« Reply #23 on: May 01, 2020, 11:13:57 AM »
I'll phrase it another way, then. A month ago, did you predict that the market would rise ~20% in April?

If not, why not?

-W

Jamese20

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Re: Delusional markets stalling my start to aggressive investing
« Reply #24 on: May 01, 2020, 11:15:31 AM »
I'll phrase it another way, then. A month ago, did you predict that the market would rise ~20% in April?

If not, why not?

-W

i have been predicting since jan the markets wil go down as i listened about wuhan and it was clear to me then this would spread worldwide.. what i am amazed about is the bull run that is currently going on based on nothing in reality

waltworks

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Re: Delusional markets stalling my start to aggressive investing
« Reply #25 on: May 01, 2020, 11:17:02 AM »
what i am amazed about is the bull run that is currently going on based on nothing in reality

Exactly. The markets are not predictable in the short term. At all. In the long term, they go up.

Invest accordingly.

-W

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Re: Delusional markets stalling my start to aggressive investing
« Reply #26 on: May 01, 2020, 11:22:21 AM »

so it appears you cannot explain how may 2019 is in the same state as now?

here you have made the assumption that the market was correctly valued in May 2019.  Why?

For perspective, in May 2019 the market value was about equal to what it was in Jan 2019.  So did we have zero growth in those five months, or was it over-valued in January? or maybe undervalued in may?

We have far moer money flowing into the economy from government (which basically just magics it out of thin air), and less from businesses making things.  where's the balance?

..point is we can only know in hindsight, and only after years more data and analysis is done.  markets are forward looking, estimating what things might look like 6-24 months from now.  They don't look backward to tether their current price on previous valuations.


i have been predicting since jan the markets wil go down as i listened about wuhan and it was clear to me then this would spread worldwide.. what i am amazed about is the bull run that is currently going on based on nothing in reality
Not to put too fine a point on it, but basically after initially being right, you were wrong for the month of April.  What makes you so sure you are right now?  And what time frame are you talking about?  Will May plummet, or will the market wait to fall until June.  Maybe go sideways for a while? 
April was a really good month for the market, ironically.

Jamese20

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Re: Delusional markets stalling my start to aggressive investing
« Reply #27 on: May 01, 2020, 11:31:20 AM »

so it appears you cannot explain how may 2019 is in the same state as now?

here you have made the assumption that the market was correctly valued in May 2019.  Why?

For perspective, in May 2019 the market value was about equal to what it was in Jan 2019.  So did we have zero growth in those five months, or was it over-valued in January? or maybe undervalued in may?

We have far moer money flowing into the economy from government (which basically just magics it out of thin air), and less from businesses making things.  where's the balance?

..point is we can only know in hindsight, and only after years more data and analysis is done.  markets are forward looking, estimating what things might look like 6-24 months from now.  They don't look backward to tether their current price on previous valuations.


i have been predicting since jan the markets wil go down as i listened about wuhan and it was clear to me then this would spread worldwide.. what i am amazed about is the bull run that is currently going on based on nothing in reality
Not to put too fine a point on it, but basically after initially being right, you were wrong for the month of April.  What makes you so sure you are right now?  And what time frame are you talking about?  Will May plummet, or will the market wait to fall until June.  Maybe go sideways for a while? 
April was a really good month for the market, ironically.

my point was not about may 2019 being a fair valuation.. my point was the globe was functioning as it always does... even in downtimes.... we have the opposite of that now so why would the prices stay the same or go up over the next couple of years? business are going bust unemployment is going to keep going up and the world is heading towards decline obviously.. as people are not producing anything or being creative.... how does all that work out to higher stock levels over the next 2 years? i think we do know what is coming

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Re: Delusional markets stalling my start to aggressive investing
« Reply #28 on: May 01, 2020, 11:33:48 AM »
You’re not crazy, the markets are being very weird. This global pandemic is unlike anything we’ve seen in our lifetimes, it is not in any way under control yet, it has already had sweeping effects that will continue to ripple over the next few years, so it doesn’t warrant the V recovery we’ve seen to date.

While the other commenters are not wrong that continuing to consistently buy regardless of the price is all you need to get to retirement, you’re likely not wrong that you will be able to buy more shares for your dollars in the near future. I’m betting on that as well. But I’ll be fine if my bet doesn’t pay off, and my re-entry into the market is not based off share price but instead based on when the number of US covid recoveries are consistently outpacing the number of new US covid cases enough that I can be reasonably confident that the pandemic portion of this crisis is under control. We’re currently sitting on more than 880,000 active *confirmed* cases in the US (and likely an order of magnitude more of undetected active cases, based off preliminary community testing in LA and others). We are not ready to be reopening and getting back to business, but the market is acting like we are.

I’ve been investing in index funds and continuing the buy regardless of price for my whole investing career since 2002. This time is different. No other time was different, because no other time did I have access to definitive pandemic outbreak numbers to see that things were not only not under control, but worse than they were when they were so bad we had to initiate the shut downs in the first place. I stayed in the market during the first initial drop, when things could go either way. I even reallocated heavier into stocks near the bottom (when the whole country was taking the pandemic seriously and acting aggressively to mitigate it) and would have reallocated heavier again if it hit another drop trigger mark, according to my IPS.

If timing the market now is going to make you time the market later, then this will likely be a net negative for your future net worth. But if timing the market now is a one time thing based on extraordinary circumstances that we actually have data for, then this will likely be a net positive for your future net worth. This is why I wouldn’t recommend doing this to most people.

L.A.S.

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Re: Delusional markets stalling my start to aggressive investing
« Reply #29 on: May 01, 2020, 11:34:17 AM »
Claiming that the whole market is now delusional cannot be ruled out.  And it is true that throughout history it has gone through periods of overvaluation and undervaluation.  However, it is also an act of arrogance to decide that the market is presently overvalued.  The market is composed of many millions of individual buy, sell, and options transactions and is in a state of perpetual price discovery caused by millions of individuals who have an extraordinary amount of computing power and capital at their disposal. So to say that the market is delusional is to suggest that a majority of the participants are also delusional..Essentially that you are right and most everyone else is wrong.

You can either put your money where your mouth is and wait until you feel that the market price is an accurate reflection of value, or seek out individual undervalued stocks. Or just buy the index fund.

waltworks

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Re: Delusional markets stalling my start to aggressive investing
« Reply #30 on: May 01, 2020, 11:36:06 AM »
Let us know how it goes 20 years from now.

I'm FI because I ignored the tech bubble, the second Iraq war, SARS, North Korea doing a variety of crazy stuff, the great recession, the election of Donald Trump, and lots of other weird stuff. Many of those things were, at the time, just as scary as Covid19.

-W

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Re: Delusional markets stalling my start to aggressive investing
« Reply #31 on: May 01, 2020, 11:38:08 AM »
thoughts? and what are you all doing regarding this investment wise?

I just bought more stocks yesterday...emerging markets if that matters. If I found a spare $5K today I'd invest it as well. I've been hearing "...this time is different.." as long as I have paid any serious attention to investing my money. If you think you should stay in cash and wait for some future stock market valuation that will be more favourable...okay. If you want to invest in real estate or a business instead of stocks....okay. I won't be doing that, but we each have to be comfortable with our investment decisions. If you don't feel good about buying stocks right now then don't do it.

There is always a reason not to buy stocks and occasionally some of those reasons even turn out to be correct. Since I can't tell in advance which ones are right and which ones are wrong I just invest every chance I get. So far I am much further ahead for doing so over many years. In any given instance it may well turn out doing something else might have been better, but I don't see an actionable path for my personal investments that involves me predicting the future accurately.  So I don't try.

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Re: Delusional markets stalling my start to aggressive investing
« Reply #32 on: May 01, 2020, 11:39:21 AM »
You’re not crazy, the markets are being very weird. This global pandemic is unlike anything we’ve seen in our lifetimes, it is not in any way under control yet, it has already had sweeping effects that will continue to ripple over the next few years, so it doesn’t warrant the V recovery we’ve seen to date.

While the other commenters are not wrong that continuing to consistently buy regardless of the price is all you need to get to retirement, you’re likely not wrong that you will be able to buy more shares for your dollars in the near future. I’m betting on that as well. But I’ll be fine if my bet doesn’t pay off, and my re-entry into the market is not based off share price but instead based on when the number of US covid recoveries are consistently outpacing the number of new US covid cases enough that I can be reasonably confident that the pandemic portion of this crisis is under control. We’re currently sitting on more than 880,000 active *confirmed* cases in the US (and likely an order of magnitude more of undetected active cases, based off preliminary community testing in LA and others). We are not ready to be reopening and getting back to business, but the market is acting like we are.

I’ve been investing in index funds and continuing the buy regardless of price for my whole investing career since 2002. This time is different. No other time was different, because no other time did I have access to definitive pandemic outbreak numbers to see that things were not only not under control, but worse than they were when they were so bad we had to initiate the shut downs in the first place. I stayed in the market during the first initial drop, when things could go either way. I even reallocated heavier into stocks near the bottom (when the whole country was taking the pandemic seriously and acting aggressively to mitigate it) and would have reallocated heavier again if it hit another drop trigger mark, according to my IPS.

If timing the market now is going to make you time the market later, then this will likely be a net negative for your future net worth. But if timing the market now is a one time thing based on extraordinary circumstances that we actually have data for, then this will likely be a net positive for your future net worth. This is why I wouldn’t recommend doing this to most people.

thanks for this - yes this is one time only..im already invested in pensions all in stocks havent touched them due to any factors here.. but i have been doing that for years so what is the point? my 2nd stage is coming upon me and it is a new pot..  a pot i want to get the most of growth out of. the act of shutting down the economy is a suicidal one which i dont see how any well reasoned person cant see the market is in crazytown..... people are saying we dont know.. we really do know... in my view

Jamese20

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Re: Delusional markets stalling my start to aggressive investing
« Reply #33 on: May 01, 2020, 11:40:37 AM »
Let us know how it goes 20 years from now.

I'm FI because I ignored the tech bubble, the second Iraq war, SARS, North Korea doing a variety of crazy stuff, the great recession, the election of Donald Trump, and lots of other weird stuff. Many of those things were, at the time, just as scary as Covid19.

-W

none of those times involed global freezing of the economy.. i dont see how your comparison relates

JLee

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Re: Delusional markets stalling my start to aggressive investing
« Reply #34 on: May 01, 2020, 11:46:45 AM »
Let us know how it goes 20 years from now.

I'm FI because I ignored the tech bubble, the second Iraq war, SARS, North Korea doing a variety of crazy stuff, the great recession, the election of Donald Trump, and lots of other weird stuff. Many of those things were, at the time, just as scary as Covid19.

-W

none of those times involed global freezing of the economy.. i dont see how your comparison relates

"This time it's different!"


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Re: Delusional markets stalling my start to aggressive investing
« Reply #35 on: May 01, 2020, 11:48:05 AM »
If you are worried about the markets now when you are just starting and have only $5000 or so invested, you are going to be really worried when you are FI and have $900k riding the irrational roller coaster.

I have sold off $180k of stocks but only because I want to buy a dream retirement property in the next few years and there is a chance there could be some bargains if the RE market tanks. I understand that is timing markets but I have actually had pretty good success timing the local real estate market in the past. The rest is staying in the stock market and I sleep fine.

waltworks

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Re: Delusional markets stalling my start to aggressive investing
« Reply #36 on: May 01, 2020, 11:50:36 AM »
Let us know how it goes 20 years from now.

I'm FI because I ignored the tech bubble, the second Iraq war, SARS, North Korea doing a variety of crazy stuff, the great recession, the election of Donald Trump, and lots of other weird stuff. Many of those things were, at the time, just as scary as Covid19.

-W

none of those times involed global freezing of the economy.. i dont see how your comparison relates

The 2007 crisis was essentially a global freeze of the economy. If you don't remember it, it was a total freakout. People lining up to buy rice at Costco and everything.

-W

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Re: Delusional markets stalling my start to aggressive investing
« Reply #37 on: May 01, 2020, 11:51:50 AM »
i cannot think of any realistic scenario where we dont have declining few years in terms of stocks... the unrerlying assets are going to suffer in the short term for a couple of years and unemployment levels will be testing depression time

once i start thats it.. i may even just think "fuck it" and start investing any point this year and when I do that will be it.. off i go each month and wont even look. I still think it is wise to consider that at this clear and evident foolish level of pricing at the moment... to consider getting maximum value for my buck

Could you envision a realistic scenario where the a pandemic would be spreading around the globe, unemployment would hit levels not seen since the great depression, forecast suggested that by the end of June the US economy would be at least 12% smaller than at the start of the year and the stock market would be only down 10%?

If not, why do you have confidence in your predictions for what is or isn't a realistic scenario in the future when your concern about the present is specifically the result of us living through in what would have sounded like a completely unrealistic scenario six months ago?

Jamese20

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Re: Delusional markets stalling my start to aggressive investing
« Reply #38 on: May 01, 2020, 11:52:57 AM »
Let us know how it goes 20 years from now.

I'm FI because I ignored the tech bubble, the second Iraq war, SARS, North Korea doing a variety of crazy stuff, the great recession, the election of Donald Trump, and lots of other weird stuff. Many of those things were, at the time, just as scary as Covid19.

-W

none of those times involed global freezing of the economy.. i dont see how your comparison relates

"This time it's different!"

it literally is different... we have actively closed down... closed... no money is being made... business going bust at rates faster than i can imagine.. still not in the fall out stages... ive not seen any sensible argument that stocks will go up in the next 2 years from anyone other than silly remarks like this one

JLee

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Re: Delusional markets stalling my start to aggressive investing
« Reply #39 on: May 01, 2020, 11:53:55 AM »
Let us know how it goes 20 years from now.

I'm FI because I ignored the tech bubble, the second Iraq war, SARS, North Korea doing a variety of crazy stuff, the great recession, the election of Donald Trump, and lots of other weird stuff. Many of those things were, at the time, just as scary as Covid19.

-W

none of those times involed global freezing of the economy.. i dont see how your comparison relates

"This time it's different!"

it literally is different... we have actively closed down... closed... no money is being made... business going bust at rates faster than i can imagine.. still not in the fall out stages... ive not seen any sensible argument that stocks will go up in the next 2 years from anyone other than silly remarks like this one

Every crash is "different" for one reason or another.

You do you.

maizefolk

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Re: Delusional markets stalling my start to aggressive investing
« Reply #40 on: May 01, 2020, 12:00:18 PM »
it literally is different... we have actively closed down... closed... no money is being made... business going bust at rates faster than i can imagine.. still not in the fall out stages... ive not seen any sensible argument that stocks will go up in the next 2 years from anyone other than silly remarks like this one

How about this argument:

If things stay bad, the US government will continue to spend money to support the economy and the fed will likely continue to buy treasury bonds, creating money out of thin air and then hanging it off to the population either directly (more stimulus checks) or indirectly (more paycheck protection program). At some point the increase in the money supply would be large enough that it starts to trigger significant inflation.

If that happens, our stock market will start to look more like that of Argentina's which has returned a jaw dropping 27% per year over the last 18 years ... denominated in Argentinian pesos.*

If you really think the long term economic outlook as so grim, I'd much rather have my money in stocks (which will ultimately rise with inflation) that dollars (which will not).

*Actually defaulting on their national debt has been pretty good for Argentina, but once you correct for inflation their stock market gains since the 2002 crash have been closer to 10%/year rather than 27%/year. And it was quite bad in the early years.

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Re: Delusional markets stalling my start to aggressive investing
« Reply #41 on: May 01, 2020, 12:02:34 PM »
i cannot think of any realistic scenario where we dont have declining few years in terms of stocks... the unrerlying assets are going to suffer in the short term for a couple of years and unemployment levels will be testing depression time

once i start thats it.. i may even just think "fuck it" and start investing any point this year and when I do that will be it.. off i go each month and wont even look. I still think it is wise to consider that at this clear and evident foolish level of pricing at the moment... to consider getting maximum value for my buck

Could you envision a realistic scenario where the a pandemic would be spreading around the globe, unemployment would hit levels not seen since the great depression, forecast suggested that by the end of June the US economy would be at least 12% smaller than at the start of the year and the stock market would be only down 10%?

If not, why do you have confidence in your predictions for what is or isn't a realistic scenario in the future when your concern about the present is specifically the result of us living through in what would have sounded like a completely unrealistic scenario six months ago?

I can envision a realistic scenario... here’s what I attributed it to a couple weeks ago when I got out of the market:

...
I want to speculate further on what is causing the disconnect between the reality on the ground and the market’s performance. I think it’s a few things that are all combining to make this irrational exuberance:
1. The effects of this covid outbreak are felt less the higher up the income bracket you are. Most lowest income earners have lost their jobs, and if they still have a job then they’re getting exposed and getting sick at it. And since poor people don’t have the level of access to healthcare and prevention that rich people have, they’ve got higher rates of negative health conditions that result in them dying at a higher rate when they get the virus. And since 38% of the stock market is owned by the richest 1% of Americans, the market is underestimating the severity of outbreak’s effects.
2. Half of the country is getting their info from the president’s daily Coronavirus task force briefings, which are basically rambling campaign rallies full of misinformation to get him re-elected. The state of economy is a huge part of re-election chances, and the president has repeatedly confused the stock market performance with the state of the economy, so these briefings are all about propping up the stock market.
3. Stock market investors and analysts are used to making investment decisions based on financials and obvious first order effects. So they’re overly weighting a big congressional bailout while ignoring that the virus is still not under control and will cause a massive global recession. This is likely also being ignored because half the US actively distrusts any international organization.
4. Stock market investors are not worried about food security, because they’ve been able to continue getting their food through delivery apps and online shopping. They aren’t going to the stores themselves so they might not even be aware of the continuously empty shelves. They also have plenty of money to buy extra to stock up. And if (or more likely, when) we have food shortages in the fall, they’ll be the few who are able to afford to buy food at high prices when demand far outstrips supply. Meanwhile, there’s been a massive increase in new people needing food bank assistance while food banks are struggling to even maintain their pre-covid level of supplies.

maizefolk

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Re: Delusional markets stalling my start to aggressive investing
« Reply #42 on: May 01, 2020, 12:05:06 PM »
BECABECA, a fair point.

I should have constrained that question to "could you have envisioned a realistic scenario where .... before it actually happened."

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nereo

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Re: Delusional markets stalling my start to aggressive investing
« Reply #44 on: May 01, 2020, 12:08:57 PM »
Let us know how it goes 20 years from now.

I'm FI because I ignored the tech bubble, the second Iraq war, SARS, North Korea doing a variety of crazy stuff, the great recession, the election of Donald Trump, and lots of other weird stuff. Many of those things were, at the time, just as scary as Covid19.

-W

none of those times involed global freezing of the economy.. i dont see how your comparison relates

"This time it's different!"

it literally is different... we have actively closed down... closed... no money is being made... business going bust at rates faster than i can imagine.. still not in the fall out stages... ive not seen any sensible argument that stocks will go up in the next 2 years from anyone other than silly remarks like this one

Well that's just blatantly wrong.  By most estimates ~80% of people who had a job in February continue to work.  There's still an awful lot of GDP.  Granted it's experienced its largest dip in living memory, but if you are adhering to the idea that everythjing is closed you are missing quite a bit.
Further, one of the expectations (indeed, probably one of the core reasons why the markets haven't fallen further) is because much of the normal spending that's fallen off is delayed, not gone.  Maybe that will come to pass, maybe it won't... but it's clear that we cant' continue to not spend like we have indefinitely. 

Sure, ***every time*** is different, but that doesn't mean we disregard everythin we know or have learned.

Jamese20

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Re: Delusional markets stalling my start to aggressive investing
« Reply #45 on: May 01, 2020, 12:13:57 PM »
Let us know how it goes 20 years from now.

I'm FI because I ignored the tech bubble, the second Iraq war, SARS, North Korea doing a variety of crazy stuff, the great recession, the election of Donald Trump, and lots of other weird stuff. Many of those things were, at the time, just as scary as Covid19.

-W

none of those times involed global freezing of the economy.. i dont see how your comparison relates

"This time it's different!"

it literally is different... we have actively closed down... closed... no money is being made... business going bust at rates faster than i can imagine.. still not in the fall out stages... ive not seen any sensible argument that stocks will go up in the next 2 years from anyone other than silly remarks like this one

Well that's just blatantly wrong.  By most estimates ~80% of people who had a job in February continue to work.  There's still an awful lot of GDP.  Granted it's experienced its largest dip in living memory, but if you are adhering to the idea that everythjing is closed you are missing quite a bit.
Further, one of the expectations (indeed, probably one of the core reasons why the markets haven't fallen further) is because much of the normal spending that's fallen off is delayed, not gone.  Maybe that will come to pass, maybe it won't... but it's clear that we cant' continue to not spend like we have indefinitely. 

Sure, ***every time*** is different, but that doesn't mean we disregard everythin we know or have learned.

80%? come off it mate

JLee

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Re: Delusional markets stalling my start to aggressive investing
« Reply #46 on: May 01, 2020, 12:21:38 PM »
Let us know how it goes 20 years from now.

I'm FI because I ignored the tech bubble, the second Iraq war, SARS, North Korea doing a variety of crazy stuff, the great recession, the election of Donald Trump, and lots of other weird stuff. Many of those things were, at the time, just as scary as Covid19.

-W

none of those times involed global freezing of the economy.. i dont see how your comparison relates

"This time it's different!"

it literally is different... we have actively closed down... closed... no money is being made... business going bust at rates faster than i can imagine.. still not in the fall out stages... ive not seen any sensible argument that stocks will go up in the next 2 years from anyone other than silly remarks like this one

Well that's just blatantly wrong.  By most estimates ~80% of people who had a job in February continue to work.  There's still an awful lot of GDP.  Granted it's experienced its largest dip in living memory, but if you are adhering to the idea that everythjing is closed you are missing quite a bit.
Further, one of the expectations (indeed, probably one of the core reasons why the markets haven't fallen further) is because much of the normal spending that's fallen off is delayed, not gone.  Maybe that will come to pass, maybe it won't... but it's clear that we cant' continue to not spend like we have indefinitely. 

Sure, ***every time*** is different, but that doesn't mean we disregard everythin we know or have learned.

80%? come off it mate

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/30/us-weekly-jobless-claims.html

Quote
Nonfarm payrolls for April are expected to show a decline of 2.25 million, with an unemployment rate of 15.1%, according to preliminary estimates from FactSet.

If you have a source showing unemployment having increased by 20%, please share!

waltworks

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Re: Delusional markets stalling my start to aggressive investing
« Reply #47 on: May 01, 2020, 12:23:03 PM »
Ammo and penicillin, dude. Hedge with MREs.

Oh, and I gotta leave this here for Maizeman:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dQw4w9WgXcQ

-W

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Re: Delusional markets stalling my start to aggressive investing
« Reply #48 on: May 01, 2020, 12:24:45 PM »
Look, I'm trying to provide you with some reasonable commentary.  You are alleging there's 0 people employed, 0 work being done, which is obviously bogus.  I'm suggetings its close to 80%, which is in line with what most economists are saying.  We can quibble a few points but it's clear your are using hyperbole to avoid looking at some very real arguments to your underlying premise, which seems to be "of course the markets will be lower ___ days/weeks/months from now"

Let's look at this from a different tack (and simlar to what @maizeman was getting at).
In mid March what percentage of people do you think would have estimated that the markets would be much lower at the end fo April?  Now imagine you had told them that 22MM additional people would have filed for unemployment, oil would drop to around $20/barrel and that shutdowns would have been extended through May for ahlf the country.  I'm guessing at least 9/10 would have placed wagers that the market would have continued to drop.

Guess waht?  It didn't.  In part because of massive government intervention. In part due to hope and scientific progress.  In part because of rainbow dust and fairy farts.  The why doesn't matter nearly as much as the fact that it did.

So now we are at another crossroads.  Will we bounce back in 12 months or will we be lower than we are now?  FWIW  I'm in the camp that thinks the rest of 2020 will be rough indeed.  But I'm not arrogant enough to assume it *will* happen.  Because like Walt I remember 2007/08 when the entire financial system was on teh verge of metldown and >70% of economists predicted a much greater fall and a dreaded "w" recession... precisely when we had hit bottom.

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Re: Delusional markets stalling my start to aggressive investing
« Reply #49 on: May 01, 2020, 12:36:00 PM »
You’re not crazy, the markets are being very weird. This global pandemic is unlike anything we’ve seen in our lifetimes, it is not in any way under control yet, it has already had sweeping effects that will continue to ripple over the next few years, so it doesn’t warrant the V recovery we’ve seen to date.

While the other commenters are not wrong that continuing to consistently buy regardless of the price is all you need to get to retirement, you’re likely not wrong that you will be able to buy more shares for your dollars in the near future. I’m betting on that as well. But I’ll be fine if my bet doesn’t pay off, and my re-entry into the market is not based off share price but instead based on when the number of US covid recoveries are consistently outpacing the number of new US covid cases enough that I can be reasonably confident that the pandemic portion of this crisis is under control. We’re currently sitting on more than 880,000 active *confirmed* cases in the US (and likely an order of magnitude more of undetected active cases, based off preliminary community testing in LA and others). We are not ready to be reopening and getting back to business, but the market is acting like we are.

I’ve been investing in index funds and continuing the buy regardless of price for my whole investing career since 2002. This time is different. No other time was different, because no other time did I have access to definitive pandemic outbreak numbers to see that things were not only not under control, but worse than they were when they were so bad we had to initiate the shut downs in the first place. I stayed in the market during the first initial drop, when things could go either way. I even reallocated heavier into stocks near the bottom (when the whole country was taking the pandemic seriously and acting aggressively to mitigate it) and would have reallocated heavier again if it hit another drop trigger mark, according to my IPS.

If timing the market now is going to make you time the market later, then this will likely be a net negative for your future net worth. But if timing the market now is a one time thing based on extraordinary circumstances that we actually have data for, then this will likely be a net positive for your future net worth. This is why I wouldn’t recommend doing this to most people.

thanks for this - yes this is one time only..im already invested in pensions all in stocks havent touched them due to any factors here.. but i have been doing that for years so what is the point? my 2nd stage is coming upon me and it is a new pot..  a pot i want to get the most of growth out of. the act of shutting down the economy is a suicidal one which i dont see how any well reasoned person cant see the market is in crazytown..... people are saying we dont know.. we really do know... in my view


if you are so convinced you 'know' then why are you asking a message board to confirm?