Author Topic: Delta variant 4th wave is coming - investing implications  (Read 4450 times)

ChpBstrd

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The UK, with a full vaccination rate of 47.2% and a partial vaccination rate of 64.7%, is experiencing a 4th wave of COVID that has delayed their reopening plans, and may result in school closures this fall. On May 24, their 7-day average number of new cases was 2,073. Today it is 9,584 and climbing. The delta variant is now dominant in the UK, and it is estimated to be between 43% and 90% more transmissible than the alpha variant we dealt with last year. In layman’s terms, that means a lot fewer people will be escaping an office, airplane, hospital, church, or restaurant uninflected if there is an infected person present. Delta is also thought to result in more hospitalizations. Everything in the US has largely reopened, which is in contrast to the partially-opened UK.

Meanwhile, the US’s 7-day average number of cases has been falling dramatically, from 24,769 on May 24 to 11,139 today. The US full vaccination rate is a little worse than the UK’s at 45.8% and the partial vaccination rate is much worse at 54.1%. Delta only comprises about 20% of cases in the US now, but is expected to become dominant within 2-3 weeks due to its higher infectiousness.

We’re farther from herd immunity in the US than the UK is, so it seems reasonable to expect the US will experience a 4th wave like the UK, and maybe a bit worse.

UK stocks (EWU) have underperformed the S&P500 by about 3.5% in the past 30 days as their 4th wave hit, after largely keeping pace for the previous several months. The US experience might be different though, because investors perceive rising interest rates and inflation as the main risk to stocks, and a 4th wave would go a long way toward alleviating those concerns. If there’s anything we learned in 2020 it is that US stocks do not at all track bad news on infections! The remote possibility of additional stimulus measures is an unexpected low-probability upside that could nonetheless contribute to stock prices. Tech should do better than other sectors, if the past is any guide. Bond yields could fall back to January or February levels in July, so long calls or bull spreads in TLT might be lucrative. Finally, the VIX seems a bit complacent at 16.5, so bullish options plays on volatility might be a great hedge. .

Your thoughts?

bwall

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Re: Delta variant 4th wave is coming - investing implications
« Reply #1 on: June 23, 2021, 09:49:32 AM »
Delta is also thought to result in more hospitalizations.

Hospitalization rate is the only statistic that matters now. And, the above statement is inconclusive.

Are vaccinated people going to the hospital? If yes, then it's a problem. If no, then there is no problem. We have a solution to COVID that did not exist for most of 2020.

I see the Delta variant as a non-tradable event from my point of view.

In the meantime, people should get vaccinated.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Delta variant 4th wave is coming - investing implications
« Reply #2 on: June 23, 2021, 10:08:03 AM »
Meanwhile, the US’s 7-day average number of cases has been falling dramatically, from 24,769 on May 24 to 11,139 today. The US full vaccination rate is a little worse than the UK’s at 45.8% and the partial vaccination rate is much worse at 54.1%.
There's many ways to view the data, like by age.  This story is from yesterday:

"The United States already has vaccinated 70% of adults age 30 and older, Zients said."
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/white-house-concede-us-likely-miss-july-4-covid-19-vaccine-target-nbc-news-2021-06-22/

While the U.S. might miss it's target, note that adults over age 30 have already hit that target.  Elsewhere I heard 18-24 year olds are the most reluctant - but they certainly have lower risk than much older adults.  So the risk is definitely dropping.

If you plan to predict Covid-19, make sure you have high quality data.  Last year in March, I found out the hard way W.H.O. is not that source - they showed no rising cases in the U.S. during the same weekend that the Fed signaled an emergency.  The W.H.O. data was wrong, and would lead to wrong conclusions.

I switched to John Hopkins data, which can be downloaded as "comma separated values" (csv), which you can then insert/replace in Google Sheets.  Then you can do math on that data, and make your own predictions.  That's what I did.
https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/tree/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series

ChpBstrd

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Re: Delta variant 4th wave is coming - investing implications
« Reply #3 on: June 23, 2021, 10:45:39 AM »

While the U.S. might miss it's target, note that adults over age 30 have already hit that target.  Elsewhere I heard 18-24 year olds are the most reluctant - but they certainly have lower risk than much older adults.  So the risk is definitely dropping.

The question is:
Does vaccine hesitancy in the UK differ from vaccine hesitancy in the US along the age demographic? I have not been able to find comparable data on this question. If there’s not a big difference (such as UK older folks being more vaccine hesitant than US older folks, and vice versa for the young) then why expect a different outcome?

seattlecyclone

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Re: Delta variant 4th wave is coming - investing implications
« Reply #4 on: June 23, 2021, 11:19:31 AM »
Are vaccinated people going to the hospital? If yes, then it's a problem. If no, then there is no problem. We have a solution to COVID that did not exist for most of 2020.

...

In the meantime, people should get vaccinated.

Yeah this is basically my view on it too.

Vaccines have been widely available for some time to anyone over the age of 12 who wants one in the US. In my county essentially all new cases are happening in unvaccinated people. I have very little sympathy for any "vaccine hesitant" person who catches the disease at this point. We've tried educating people. We've tried lotteries and other incentives. The number of new vaccinations has nevertheless slowed to a small trickle. Those remaining unvaccinated adults are consciously choosing to take that risk, and very little is likely to change their mind at this point. If it takes a new highly transmissible variant ripping its way through the unvaccinated population to get us the rest of the way to herd immunity, so be it. We can keep our kids away from public spaces for a while if needed.

ChpBstrd

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Re: Delta variant 4th wave is coming - investing implications
« Reply #5 on: June 23, 2021, 12:24:42 PM »
Sounds like the consensus is no one will care about the 4th wave because of the vaccines, and so schools, restaurants, airports, cruise ships, etc. will all be open in-person regardless of how badly it ravages the non-vaccinated population. If that view is correct, UK stocks might be a deal right now.

Mr. Green

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Re: Delta variant 4th wave is coming - investing implications
« Reply #6 on: June 23, 2021, 02:15:15 PM »
I don't know about the UK, but in the US the only people that haven't received the vaccine at this point are those that don't want it, those that can't get it due to a medical condition, and children who are not yet eligible. Those folks who don't want the vaccine are typically the same ones who think things shouldn't have been shut down in the first place so I don't see a new variant affecting their position on the matter. Reports from folks in hospitals strongly indicate that vaccines are effective against the delta variant because the folks coming in the doors are almost exclusively unvaccinated. Broadly, it seems like this will be a non-issue. In specific states where vaccine skepticism is particularly high, there may be a significant uptick in hospitalizations and deaths, but now that vaccines are widely available and we are collectively advocating for them as much as possible, there's not much that can be done for that.

Imma

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Re: Delta variant 4th wave is coming - investing implications
« Reply #7 on: June 23, 2021, 03:31:06 PM »
A big difference between the UK and other places is that the UK has vaccinated mostly with AstraZeneca, which seems to offer less protection to the Delta variant than other vaccines. In Amsterdam Delta is almost dominant now but at this point it's still not spreading very fast. Most adults got Pfizer or Moderna. Only people over 60 got AZ.

At this point Delta is mostly spreading among teenagers, but it would become an issue if the generation of their grandparents is not protected enough. I think Covid booster shots are planned for fall so hopefully they'll be able to give the elderly another layer of protection.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Delta variant 4th wave is coming - investing implications
« Reply #8 on: June 24, 2021, 08:36:00 AM »
While the U.S. might miss it's target, note that adults over age 30 have already hit that target.  Elsewhere I heard 18-24 year olds are the most reluctant - but they certainly have lower risk than much older adults.  So the risk is definitely dropping.
The question is:
Does vaccine hesitancy in the UK differ from vaccine hesitancy in the US along the age demographic? I have not been able to find comparable data on this question. If there’s not a big difference (such as UK older folks being more vaccine hesitant than US older folks, and vice versa for the young) then why expect a different outcome?
Most of us are just chatting here - but if you want to invest in a thesis, you have to get data that can prove or disprove your theory.

Right now isn't UK still in lockdown?  I recall Prime Minister Boris Johnson extending the lockdown recently.  If you invest for a fall in UK stocks, and then the lockdown ends, you're likely to be on the wrong end of that trade.

People aged 50-64 are likely still in their working years (until they discover this website!).  Compared to people aged 18-29, their risk of hospitalization is about 5x greater and risk of death 44 times greater.  If you vaccinate everyone but those aged 18-29, you still get much lower hospitalization and death rates.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-age.html

In a lockdown, with the majority of UK residents vaccinated, I wouldn't invest on a huge fall in UK stocks.

ice_beard

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Re: Delta variant 4th wave is coming - investing implications
« Reply #9 on: June 24, 2021, 11:02:43 AM »
If/when we re-open a Covid ICU and I have to start working there again, that is when I'll get concerned.  In my region, we have close to 80% vaccination rates.  I don't foresee any significant wave in this area.

I'm out of compassion for those who can and have decided not to get vaccinated.  I'll feel bad for the medical staff that continue to be overwhelmed because people choose to make poor choices.  But I'm straight done giving a shit about certain sectors of our population.  Not getting vaccinated is like not taking your blood pressure meds, controlling your blood sugar, etc. and you're gonna have to deal with the choices you've made.  I don't coddle those types of non-compliant patients and I sure as hell won't be doing that through all that PPE either.

ChpBstrd

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Re: Delta variant 4th wave is coming - investing implications
« Reply #10 on: June 24, 2021, 12:31:58 PM »
The sentiment here certainly suggests we are not going back to restrictions, school closures, etc. no matter how bad it gets. Done means done. Most vaccinated people I know say they’ve quit masking for good. If the vaccinated are fresh out of sympathy for the vaccine hesitant, there would be no political support for doing anything further to fight the pandemic. The antivaxx anti-mask people are not going to advocate further restrictions. Who else is left?

My next question is whether, as bad as 2020 was, it was maybe a quarter as bad as it could have been if there had been zero restrictions / zero personal precautions. What if fully open, unmasked states with 50% vaccination rates could yield more infections than a shut-down, masking state with 0% vaccination? It probably depends on how many of the unvaccinated have an immune response due to prior infection.

LightTripper

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Re: Delta variant 4th wave is coming - investing implications
« Reply #11 on: June 24, 2021, 12:45:10 PM »
I'm in the UK.

It's true that older people here are mainly vaccinated with AZ - but AZ actually has a good efficacy against hospitalisation even for Delta (95% ish) if you've had your second dose, and most people have had a second dose.

Young people (<40) are getting Pfizer and a few Moderna, and that has a 95%+ efficacy against hospitalisation even with one dose.

What *neither* vaccine does on a single dose is stop you catching it (only 30% effective for AZ and 36% for Pfizer).  So I suspect if you have a lot of single dosed or unvaccinated folks then your case rates will increase fast.  But if enough people have at least a single dose of an MRNA vaccine then hopefully your increase in hospitalisations will be somewhat more modest.

People being hospitalised here at the moment are mainly (around 60% I think) younger people who haven't yet had access to the vaccine, or are only single dosed (we only opened to 18+ very recently, and most people in their 30s and early 40s are still waiting for a second dose).  Hopefully being generally younger and healthier most will survive, but it's still a bit of a scary time, and the final stages of our opening (nightclubs, mass events) have been postponed, as the models showed that could save a substantial number of lives, even with those infected mainly being younger folks in this wave.

It's worth taking seriously.  I think your case rates will go up a lot and hospitalisation a fair bit.  People who have refused the vaccine or are unable to get immunity from a vaccine are going to be hit (and of course this may well not be the last or worst variant).  What impact that has on the US economy is very hard to say from this side of the pond.

As my Uncle says, if you are cursed with living in interesting times, you may as well find them interesting....

GuitarStv

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Re: Delta variant 4th wave is coming - investing implications
« Reply #12 on: June 24, 2021, 01:05:35 PM »
The US has greater uptake of mRNA vaccines than the UK, which are known to be more effective against the delta variant.

former player

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Re: Delta variant 4th wave is coming - investing implications
« Reply #13 on: June 24, 2021, 01:23:40 PM »
The US has greater uptake of mRNA vaccines than the UK, which are known to be more effective against the delta variant.
The UK has 64% of its population with at least one dose as against the USA's 53% and has 47% of its population with two doses as against the USA's 45%.  The UK is also vaccinating its population at a faster rate than the USA (the USA has just fallen behind Italy in its vaccination rate).

Most of the people in the UK who've had the Astrazenica have had two doses: the more recent vaccinations in the UK have been mostly younger people who are getting the mRNA vaccines.  As LightTripper points out, two doses of Astrazenica provide very similar levels of protection against Delta as the mRNA vaccines.

Current vaccination rates in the USA look worryingly low.

Sibley

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Re: Delta variant 4th wave is coming - investing implications
« Reply #14 on: June 24, 2021, 01:24:42 PM »
I'm vaccinated, and am still wearing masks in grocery stores, etc. Mostly because I'm aware that children under 12 can't get the vaccine and then there's people who are unable to be vaccination (for legitimate medical reasons) or people who were vaccinated but didn't develop immunity. I'm lax about it though.

Don't want to be vaccinated and you could be? Fine, that's your choice. But don't expect any sympathy or special assistance from me if you get sick. You made your bed, you can lie in it.

GuitarStv

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Re: Delta variant 4th wave is coming - investing implications
« Reply #15 on: June 24, 2021, 03:18:15 PM »
The US has greater uptake of mRNA vaccines than the UK, which are known to be more effective against the delta variant.
The UK has 64% of its population with at least one dose as against the USA's 53% and has 47% of its population with two doses as against the USA's 45%.  The UK is also vaccinating its population at a faster rate than the USA (the USA has just fallen behind Italy in its vaccination rate).

Most of the people in the UK who've had the Astrazenica have had two doses: the more recent vaccinations in the UK have been mostly younger people who are getting the mRNA vaccines.  As LightTripper points out, two doses of Astrazenica provide very similar levels of protection against Delta as the mRNA vaccines.

Current vaccination rates in the USA look worryingly low.

Lighttripper talked about effectiveness against hospitalization - not getting infected and transmitting the disease.  The original post was talking about transmission, not hospitalization.

Two fifths of people who are fully vaccinated with AZ can still get symptomatic delta covid and transmit it.
 (We don't yet know the numbers who will be asymptomatic and carriers.)  The mRNA vaccines in comparison are around 88% effective against catching (and thus being able to transmit) symptomatic delta covid.

If fully vaccinated people are being able to do things like walk around without face masks, or are feeling more confident and taking fewer precautions they're much likely to help spread the delta variant if they've been vaccinated with Astra Zeneca.  Since the US has had greater uptake with mRNA vaccines, this should help a little to protect against delta variant transmission.  The lower uptake of vaccine in the US is troubling though.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Delta variant 4th wave is coming - investing implications
« Reply #16 on: June 26, 2021, 09:47:11 AM »
What if fully open, unmasked states with 50% vaccination rates could yield more infections than a shut-down, masking state with 0% vaccination? It probably depends on how many of the unvaccinated have an immune response due to prior infection.
I think most people saw last year that the stock market isn't a sympathy meter for Covid-19.  Some of the most vaccinated states also have the largest economies, like California (home of Apple, Google, Facebook).  Or take last July/Aug when a spike impacted Florida.. and was ignored, causing my tiny investment in that outcome to expire nearly worthless.  To invest profitably, you have to also predict the timing and people's response.

Michael in ABQ

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Re: Delta variant 4th wave is coming - investing implications
« Reply #17 on: June 26, 2021, 10:30:09 AM »

We’re farther from herd immunity in the US than the UK is, so it seems reasonable to expect the US will experience a 4th wave like the UK, and maybe a bit worse.


At least 10% of the US population has had a confirmed case. That means many more than that have also been infected but were never confirmed - i.e. household members where one person tested positive, or completely asymptomatic cases. There's going to be some overlap with the 54% that have received at least one vaccine, but not necessarily a large amount. Many of the people I know that caught COVID were the ones least likely to wear a mask - which are also the group that is unlikely to get vaccinated. So I would estimate we've probably got around 60-65% of people in the US fully vaccinated or that are immune by virtue of having been infected. Also, many of those that are unvaccinated are younger people that are at lower risk of hospitalization/death.

Overall, I don't think another variant is going to cause any significant implications for the US economy and the market. Things are going to continue opening back up and the rate of fully vaccinated people will continue to rise - albeit slowly.

Paul der Krake

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Re: Delta variant 4th wave is coming - investing implications
« Reply #18 on: June 26, 2021, 10:57:12 AM »
Zero sympathy at this point in time for US residents who choose not to vaccinate. Enough with the excuses. Unless new data conclusively shows that the vaccines don't work well against the variants, let the bodies hit the floor.

Bloop Bloop Reloaded

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Re: Delta variant 4th wave is coming - investing implications
« Reply #19 on: June 26, 2021, 11:31:50 AM »
The problem we have is that every economy is pumping so much stimulus that the share market is truly 'too big to fall'. Every asshole out there with a business is getting propped up, so nothing's failing and there are no bargains. There's also no value for consumers who want to be frugal and get a few bargains. This new world order is one which really helps investors who are old and rich and really screws over young investors who have high incomes, low net worths and are waiting for a crash so they can buy in at value.

seattlecyclone

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Re: Delta variant 4th wave is coming - investing implications
« Reply #20 on: June 26, 2021, 11:44:06 AM »
Another thing to consider when investing: even if there is a major outbreak, how much will that affect total corporate profits over the next few decades? If the answer is "not much," that's about how much the share prices should change.

BicycleB

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Re: Delta variant 4th wave is coming - investing implications
« Reply #21 on: June 26, 2021, 01:39:56 PM »
I too have trouble developing an investment thesis. The closest I can come is:

-Yes to most of the discussion above
-US may be "over" it investment wise, willing to let the unvaxxed die as individuals and able to get away with it, but other countries may pop in and out of lockdown for a long time (couple of years?) as Delta spreads faster than mRNA vaccines
-Can't tell how this affects stocks other than adding volatility
-So, I guess a lightweight vote for the idea of locking in options that profit from volatility increases, or are cheap because of current assumptions of low volatility?
-Or, maybe some play based on the assumption that rich countries will "mRNA up" by say end of '22, but poor countries might be vulnerable longer?

ChpBstrd

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Re: Delta variant 4th wave is coming - investing implications
« Reply #22 on: June 26, 2021, 08:23:45 PM »
I too have trouble developing an investment thesis. The closest I can come is:

-Yes to most of the discussion above
-US may be "over" it investment wise, willing to let the unvaxxed die as individuals and able to get away with it, but other countries may pop in and out of lockdown for a long time (couple of years?) as Delta spreads faster than mRNA vaccines
-Can't tell how this affects stocks other than adding volatility
-So, I guess a lightweight vote for the idea of locking in options that profit from volatility increases, or are cheap because of current assumptions of low volatility?
-Or, maybe some play based on the assumption that rich countries will "mRNA up" by say end of '22, but poor countries might be vulnerable longer?

My initial thought had been that contemporary worries about interest rates rising will take a back seat as the 4th wave increased the likelihood of lower rates for longer and marginal investors flee to safety. The investment play would be an options spread betting that TLT (long duration bond fund with an options market) will fail to fall in July, as one would expect if we are moving toward higher rates, sooner.

bthewalls

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Re: Delta variant 4th wave is coming - investing implications
« Reply #23 on: July 06, 2021, 04:03:21 PM »
In theory any strain of covid causes an issue to those with underlying complications only ish (the remaining population are kinda fine)....infection rate surely less important than severity of effects......majority of those at risk probably already exposed to some previous strain...

Summary, annual flu variants are constantly evolving. Maybe in 5 years it’ll become normal part of living...

ChpBstrd

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Re: Delta variant 4th wave is coming - investing implications
« Reply #24 on: July 06, 2021, 05:52:38 PM »
My initial thought had been that contemporary worries about interest rates rising will take a back seat as the 4th wave increased the likelihood of lower rates for longer and marginal investors flee to safety. The investment play would be an options spread betting that TLT (long duration bond fund with an options market) will fail to fall in July, as one would expect if we are moving toward higher rates, sooner.

So far, this options play would have yielded double digit returns. The fourth wave is only starting to materialize, but historically the time shortly after a holiday has been the time a wave hits.

talltexan

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Re: Delta variant 4th wave is coming - investing implications
« Reply #25 on: July 08, 2021, 11:29:02 AM »

My next question is whether, as bad as 2020 was, it was maybe a quarter as bad as it could have been if there had been zero restrictions / zero personal precautions. What if fully open, unmasked states with 50% vaccination rates could yield more infections than a shut-down, masking state with 0% vaccination? It probably depends on how many of the unvaccinated have an immune response due to prior infection.

We would have tripped over the line at which hospital capacity would have been exceeded, leaving hospitals unable to treat a lot of other things, too. Instead of 350,000 deaths from COVID in 2020, we might have had two million.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Delta variant 4th wave is coming - investing implications
« Reply #26 on: July 08, 2021, 08:05:36 PM »
bthewalls - Although I've stopped following Covid-19 closely, your comments comparing Covid-19 to the flu don't make sense to me.  When has a flu season killed 600k Americans?  And that's mostly the original strain, not the more contagious and more severe Delta variant.  Setting aside risks from reopening, outside the U.S. younger people are being hospitalized in greater numbers.  The evidence is that Sars-cov-2 is more deadly than the flu, and getting deadlier.

Back to the current situation with Covid and stocks, I'm seeing those stocks take significant losses (like Carnival Cruises -22% in 30 days).  That seems most likely impacted by the Delta variant, since other stocks are not dropping that quickly.

talltexan

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Re: Delta variant 4th wave is coming - investing implications
« Reply #27 on: July 09, 2021, 11:28:11 AM »
are you describing a rotation out of the travel/leisure stocks again?

Gin1984

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Re: Delta variant 4th wave is coming - investing implications
« Reply #28 on: July 09, 2021, 12:16:04 PM »
People seem to be ignoring that as the delta variant passes through it can mutate and get worse. 
Also the mRNA vaccines are less effective at keeping you from getting it (compared to the alpha variant): Delta is moderately resistant to vaccines, particularly in people who have received just a single dose. A Public Health England study published on 22 May found that a single dose of either AstraZeneca's or Pfizer's vaccine reduced a person’s risk of developing COVID-19 symptoms caused by the Delta variant by 33%, compared to 50% for the Alpha variant. A second dose of the AstraZeneca vaccine boosted protection against Delta to 60% (compared to 66% against Alpha), while two doses of Pfizer’s jab were 88% effective (compared to 93% against Alpha). 
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01696-3

More can be asymptomatic and pass it. https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/07/health/covid-19-test-vaccinated-delta-wellness/index.html
By unmasking and removing social distancing we are just going to restart the whole damn thing.
« Last Edit: July 09, 2021, 12:21:15 PM by Gin1984 »

bthewalls

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Re: Delta variant 4th wave is coming - investing implications
« Reply #29 on: July 09, 2021, 04:21:58 PM »
bthewalls - Although I've stopped following Covid-19 closely, your comments comparing Covid-19 to the flu don't make sense to me.  When has a flu season killed 600k Americans?  And that's mostly the original strain, not the more contagious and more severe Delta variant.  Setting aside risks from reopening, outside the U.S. younger people are being hospitalized in greater numbers.  The evidence is that Sars-cov-2 is more deadly than the flu, and getting deadlier.

Back to the current situation with Covid and stocks, I'm seeing those stocks take significant losses (like Carnival Cruises -22% in 30 days).  That seems most likely impacted by the Delta variant, since other stocks are not dropping that quickly.

Yeah definitely more serious than the flu...but no matter what we want, we’re all gonna have to live with it as variants natural exceed vaccines

kenmoremmm

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Re: Delta variant 4th wave is coming - investing implications
« Reply #30 on: July 10, 2021, 12:31:39 AM »
bthewalls - Although I've stopped following Covid-19 closely, your comments comparing Covid-19 to the flu don't make sense to me.  When has a flu season killed 600k Americans?  And that's mostly the original strain, not the more contagious and more severe Delta variant.  Setting aside risks from reopening, outside the U.S. younger people are being hospitalized in greater numbers.  The evidence is that Sars-cov-2 is more deadly than the flu, and getting deadlier.

Back to the current situation with Covid and stocks, I'm seeing those stocks take significant losses (like Carnival Cruises -22% in 30 days).  That seems most likely impacted by the Delta variant, since other stocks are not dropping that quickly.

Yeah definitely more serious than the flu...but no matter what we want, we’re all gonna have to live with it as variants natural exceed vaccines
i would assume, right or wrong, that long-term, covid will be on par with the flu for deadliness. we're just in the first inning of the game so things look really bad. but, eventually, we'll all likely reach a baseline of immunity or infectedness and the virus will continue to circulate forever at lower and lower death rates. in theory, the argument is always that viruses weaken over time otherwise they kill off their hosts too fast. i'm not sure how this works in a world of 8B people, but i have certainly heard this logic stated many times in the past year+.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Delta variant 4th wave is coming - investing implications
« Reply #31 on: July 10, 2021, 05:44:56 AM »
Also the mRNA vaccines are less effective at keeping you from getting it (compared to the alpha variant): Delta is moderately resistant to vaccines... two doses of Pfizer’s jab were 88% effective (compared to 93% against Alpha). 
I wouldn't call a tiny 5% drop "moderately resistant".  Vaccinated Americans almost entirely used Pfizer and Moderna, which you admit only dropped from 93% to 88% in effectiveness.  And that's the chance to catch Covid-19, possibly without symptoms.  Those vaccines are even more than 88% effective at protecting from hospitalization and death.


i would assume, right or wrong, that long-term, covid will be on par with the flu for deadliness. we're just in the first inning of the game so things look really bad. but, eventually, we'll all likely reach a baseline of immunity or infectedness and the virus will continue to circulate forever at lower and lower death rates ...
Children are far less impacted than adults, who in turn are much less impacted than the elderly.  So long term, babies and children will fight off Covid-19, and maybe gain some immunity.  And very long term, everyone will grow up with it.

But there's two assumptions that I don't think have been resolved yet.  First, how long does immunity last?  If every year is a new battle, then it will remain a problem as people grow older.  And second, Sars-cov-2 seems to be growing more deadly over time, which is unusual.  I have the unconfirmed impression most viruses don't do that, so researchers need to confirm that will happen before we assume it.

Rosy

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Re: Delta variant 4th wave is coming - investing implications
« Reply #32 on: July 10, 2021, 06:12:43 AM »
Zero sympathy at this point in time for US residents who choose not to vaccinate. SNIP
Let the bodies hit the floor.

This ^^^. 

Investing implications - it will impact the same industries as before. We saw how the US stock market reacted in 2020.
Even if Delta proves devastating I'm sure Florida will contrive to hide the truth.
Our hospitals were already told they do not need to report covid cases any longer.
Shrug - I'm over it - they will repeat the same scenario of denying and lying.

Data, what f****ing data is there that one can actually believe - not in our state, that's for sure.

BicycleB

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Re: Delta variant 4th wave is coming - investing implications
« Reply #33 on: July 10, 2021, 08:50:10 AM »
Zero sympathy at this point in time for US residents who choose not to vaccinate. SNIP
Let the bodies hit the floor.

This ^^^. 

Investing implications - it will impact the same industries as before. We saw how the US stock market reacted in 2020.
Even if Delta proves devastating I'm sure Florida will contrive to hide the truth.
Our hospitals were already told they do not need to report covid cases any longer.
Shrug - I'm over it - they will repeat the same scenario of denying and lying.

Data, what f****ing data is there that one can actually believe - not in our state, that's for sure.

I didn't know that. Bad sign.

GuitarStv

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Re: Delta variant 4th wave is coming - investing implications
« Reply #34 on: July 10, 2021, 02:52:34 PM »
Pffft . . . you guys are still worried about Delta?  Get with the times.  We've just imported a side of Lambda from South America to go with our Delta.

:P

bthewalls

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Re: Delta variant 4th wave is coming - investing implications
« Reply #35 on: July 10, 2021, 03:20:52 PM »
Right or wrong, my intention is just get on with it now.....

Can’t see market panicking unless some new variant pops up and terrifies everyone

ketchup

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Re: Delta variant 4th wave is coming - investing implications
« Reply #36 on: July 10, 2021, 05:09:14 PM »
Pffft . . . you guys are still worried about Delta?  Get with the times.  We've just imported a side of Lambda from South America to go with our Delta.

:P
I flew Delta last week; everything seemed fine to me.

Gin1984

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Re: Delta variant 4th wave is coming - investing implications
« Reply #37 on: July 10, 2021, 08:14:11 PM »
Also the mRNA vaccines are less effective at keeping you from getting it (compared to the alpha variant): Delta is moderately resistant to vaccines... two doses of Pfizer’s jab were 88% effective (compared to 93% against Alpha). 
I wouldn't call a tiny 5% drop "moderately resistant".  Vaccinated Americans almost entirely used Pfizer and Moderna, which you admit only dropped from 93% to 88% in effectiveness.  And that's the chance to catch Covid-19, possibly without symptoms.  Those vaccines are even more than 88% effective at protecting from hospitalization and death.


i would assume, right or wrong, that long-term, covid will be on par with the flu for deadliness. we're just in the first inning of the game so things look really bad. but, eventually, we'll all likely reach a baseline of immunity or infectedness and the virus will continue to circulate forever at lower and lower death rates ...
Children are far less impacted than adults, who in turn are much less impacted than the elderly.  So long term, babies and children will fight off Covid-19, and maybe gain some immunity.  And very long term, everyone will grow up with it.

But there's two assumptions that I don't think have been resolved yet.  First, how long does immunity last?  If every year is a new battle, then it will remain a problem as people grow older.  And second, Sars-cov-2 seems to be growing more deadly over time, which is unusual.  I have the unconfirmed impression most viruses don't do that, so researchers need to confirm that will happen before we assume it.

You don't to understand the quoted research article.  I did not call it moderately resistant, the researchers in this field did.  And that drop is for symptoms NOT catching and passing the damn thing asymptomatically.  The was the next quote.  Which we do not fully know because there has not been as much testing.  Basically we are going back to the start of this whole pandemic and redoing it because people have decided to unmask.  Pfizer is making a booster for the delta variant because it is not stopping infection, it is just allowing for people not to know they are infected, that should tell you something.  If it was not a big deal, the pharma companies would not be putting the extra work in before they have gotten full approval.  We have camps and parents unmasking their children and we have seen an increase in hospitalizations in areas like England for children even though they are still in a lock down. 
And your unconfirmed statement is flat out incorrect.  Viruses mutate, allowing them to infect more people is how we get "better" viruses.  Viruses like this variant that to infect much easier.  You are also ignoring damage that is not death.  The UK biobank research group had brain scans of certain people prior to infection for other unrelated reasons.  They invited them back and reimaged and found a reduction a grey matter aka the actual cells in the brain.  This is on top of lung damage, heart damage etc. 

GuitarStv

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Re: Delta variant 4th wave is coming - investing implications
« Reply #38 on: July 11, 2021, 03:41:37 PM »
Pffft . . . you guys are still worried about Delta?  Get with the times.  We've just imported a side of Lambda from South America to go with our Delta.

:P
I flew Delta last week; everything seemed fine to me.

If I read you right, you're saying it's possible you got Lambda from Delta?

ketchup

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Re: Delta variant 4th wave is coming - investing implications
« Reply #39 on: July 11, 2021, 04:46:19 PM »
Pffft . . . you guys are still worried about Delta?  Get with the times.  We've just imported a side of Lambda from South America to go with our Delta.

:P
I flew Delta last week; everything seemed fine to me.

If I read you right, you're saying it's possible you got Lambda from Delta?
They even offered me Delta (Comfort) Plus, and I turned it down since I had just heard about it on the news.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Delta variant 4th wave is coming - investing implications
« Reply #40 on: July 13, 2021, 10:41:13 AM »
Also the mRNA vaccines are less effective at keeping you from getting it (compared to the alpha variant): Delta is moderately resistant to vaccines... two doses of Pfizer’s jab were 88% effective (compared to 93% against Alpha). 
I wouldn't call a tiny 5% drop "moderately resistant".  Vaccinated Americans almost entirely used Pfizer and Moderna, which you admit only dropped from 93% to 88% in effectiveness.  And that's the chance to catch Covid-19, possibly without symptoms.  Those vaccines are even more than 88% effective at protecting from hospitalization and death.


i would assume, right or wrong, that long-term, covid will be on par with the flu for deadliness. we're just in the first inning of the game so things look really bad. but, eventually, we'll all likely reach a baseline of immunity or infectedness and the virus will continue to circulate forever at lower and lower death rates ...
Children are far less impacted than adults, who in turn are much less impacted than the elderly.  So long term, babies and children will fight off Covid-19, and maybe gain some immunity.  And very long term, everyone will grow up with it.

But there's two assumptions that I don't think have been resolved yet.  First, how long does immunity last?  If every year is a new battle, then it will remain a problem as people grow older.  And second, Sars-cov-2 seems to be growing more deadly over time, which is unusual.  I have the unconfirmed impression most viruses don't do that, so researchers need to confirm that will happen before we assume it.

You don't to understand the quoted research article.  I did not call it moderately resistant, the researchers in this field did.  And that drop is for symptoms NOT catching and passing the damn thing asymptomatically.  The was the next quote.  Which we do not fully know because there has not been as much testing.  Basically we are going back to the start of this whole pandemic and redoing it because people have decided to unmask.  Pfizer is making a booster for the delta variant because it is not stopping infection, it is just allowing for people not to know they are infected, that should tell you something.  If it was not a big deal, the pharma companies would not be putting the extra work in before they have gotten full approval.  We have camps and parents unmasking their children and we have seen an increase in hospitalizations in areas like England for children even though they are still in a lock down. 
And your unconfirmed statement is flat out incorrect.  Viruses mutate, allowing them to infect more people is how we get "better" viruses.  Viruses like this variant that to infect much easier.  You are also ignoring damage that is not death.  The UK biobank research group had brain scans of certain people prior to infection for other unrelated reasons.  They invited them back and reimaged and found a reduction a grey matter aka the actual cells in the brain.  This is on top of lung damage, heart damage etc.
Speaking of incorrect, "researchers" did not write that article.  Ewen Callaway, a writer for Nature, wrote it.  Since your appeal to authority failed, what do you have to say about it on the merits?  Is 5% "moderately resistant", or is the article wrong to generalize?  A drop from 93% to 88% is not significant, and the author should not have lumped that in with the other cases.  It also so happens that's the situation for most of the United States, which is a pretty big oversight for this article.

Do you have factual information to refute my assumption?  I said "growing more deadly over time, which is unusual", and you responded with "Viruses like this variant that to infect much easier."  While that sentence is grammatically incorrect, I assume you're talking about infection rate, which is not what I said.  I said "more deadly ... is unusual", meaning more people die from the virus.  Nothing you said in that entire last paragraph relates to what I said.