Maybe I need a new thread "investing in next quarter's news", since that's the time frame.
My investment approach is awaiting several events:
(1) vaccine trial(s) reach the full 30,000 participants
(2) hundreds of people in test will get sick
(3) the vaccine is declared effective or not (with a percentage)
(4) doctors and nursing home patients, being most at risk, are given the vaccine
(5) I predict doctors will be very successful at convincing their patients to take the same vaccine
I think (2) will confuse people - if it's a vaccine being tested, why did people get sick? Some were given a placebo, most were given the vaccine. Very soon after this, researchers will go over the data and figure out if most of the sick people took a placebo. If it's fairly even, the vaccine is worthless. If it's almost all placebo takers, the vaccine is very effective.
Then there's the FDA approval, followed by 100M doses of vaccine being available. Yes, we'll go from zero to 100 million because drug companies are making vaccine candidates "at risk". If they win the race, they make billions - so they can risk a billion making a vaccine that might prove worthless.
Polls suggest 1 in 3 Americans won't take the vaccine. But we don't have a vaccine now - the question is how many are willing to take a vaccine when it becomes available. Consider who gets the vaccine first: doctors and nursing home patients, both of whom are very high risk groups. So now you go in for a doctor's visit, and your doctor has already taken the vaccine. How effective will doctors be at convincing their patients to take that same vaccine?
https://news.gallup.com/poll/317018/one-three-americans-not-covid-vaccine.aspxSo I think public opinion will change based on information, and people asking their doctor what to do. I'm expecting well over 80% take the vaccine, even knowing that about 10% of both political parties are anti-vaxxers.
Of all the events I mentioned, event (3) is the big one: a vaccine is given a level of effectiveness based on who caught Covid-19 and who didn't. A vaccine can be valuable in controlling outbreaks and reducing deaths... and still not be strong enough for people to feel safe flying on airlines and visiting malls. Or in an ideal case, it could be very close to 100% effective and paves the way to recovery.