Author Topic: Crytpocurrency Returns not what They Used to be.  (Read 3438 times)

joer1212

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 435
Crytpocurrency Returns not what They Used to be.
« on: November 12, 2020, 09:49:10 AM »
2015: Top altcoins rise 100X (10,000%) in 3 months, and no one bats an eye.

2020: Top altcoins rise 40% in a year, and everyone goes crazy.

Just LOL at how sheepish and gullible most people are.

The days of easy money from this asset class are permanently over. I said this in 2017, yet everyone attacked me back then because the truth was too painful to hear. People just wanted to indulge in their pathetic fantasy of being "early" investors that were going to get rich in the next bull run. They believed this, mind you, while the cryptocurrency market cap was measured in hundreds of billions of dollars! Human delusion really knows no bounds. (eye roll)

The truth is that, going forward, returns in the cryptocurrency market are going to be much more modest and stock-like. That's been true since 2017, and it will continue to be true indefinitely. And, while it's still possible to hit the jackpot by investing in a small-cap coin that goes parabolic, this has become exceedingly difficult.

Bottom line: if you missed the pre-2017 cryptocurrency bull runs, I'm sorry to tell you that you missed the boat.
« Last Edit: November 12, 2020, 09:51:39 AM by joer1212 »

Metalcat

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 17378
Re: Crytpocurrency Returns not what They Used to be.
« Reply #1 on: November 12, 2020, 11:08:40 AM »
I doubt many people here in 2017 would have attacked you...

HPstache

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2858
  • Age: 37
Re: Crytpocurrency Returns not what They Used to be.
« Reply #2 on: November 12, 2020, 11:20:29 AM »
You said it here?  I looked at your posts and see nothing regarding crypto.  I see a lot of interest in Gold & Silver investing as well as RE and small business.

joer1212

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 435
Re: Crytpocurrency Returns not what They Used to be.
« Reply #3 on: November 12, 2020, 12:11:28 PM »
You said it here?  I looked at your posts and see nothing regarding crypto.  I see a lot of interest in Gold & Silver investing as well as RE and small business.
I didn't say it here. I said it on various YouTube channels and forums.

joer1212

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 435
Re: Crytpocurrency Returns not what They Used to be.
« Reply #4 on: November 12, 2020, 12:14:06 PM »
I doubt many people here in 2017 would have attacked you...
That's true. I'm actually posting this here now because I know that you guys agree with me. I'm tired of arguing with idiots on other forums/YouTube channels, despite being repeatedly right.

Metalcat

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 17378
Re: Crytpocurrency Returns not what They Used to be.
« Reply #5 on: November 12, 2020, 01:31:43 PM »
I doubt many people here in 2017 would have attacked you...
That's true. I'm actually posting this here now because I know that you guys agree with me. I'm tired of arguing with idiots on other forums/YouTube channels, despite being repeatedly right.

Maybe for your own mental health you should avoid talking crypto with those people?

I avoid talking crypto with literally anyone outside of this forum, other than colleagues who are investment experts.

MustacheAndaHalf

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 6631
Re: Crytpocurrency Returns not what They Used to be.
« Reply #6 on: November 12, 2020, 02:26:04 PM »
I forget the year, but I recall in one year Bitcoin went up 2000%... the value of Bitcoin, which can hardly be used anywhere, passed up the value of Visa Inc.  A worldwide payment system is more valuable than Bitcoin, and a 20x increase is excessive.  I predicted a crash, but there was no way to short BTC, so I couldn't act on that prediction.

When I search for "bitcoin historical price", I see it cost $4,000 / BTC earlier this year, and is hovering around $15,000 / BTC now.  Someone who bought during the pandemic could have done really well.

joer1212

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 435
Re: Crytpocurrency Returns not what They Used to be.
« Reply #7 on: November 12, 2020, 06:30:00 PM »
I doubt many people here in 2017 would have attacked you...
That's true. I'm actually posting this here now because I know that you guys agree with me. I'm tired of arguing with idiots on other forums/YouTube channels, despite being repeatedly right.

Maybe for your own mental health you should avoid talking crypto with those people?

I avoid talking crypto with literally anyone outside of this forum, other than colleagues who are investment experts.
I stopped engaging with them months ago. They don't even have a grasp of basic math, or market cap. They claim it doesn't matter, lmao. I feel like the average cryptocurrency investor is somewhere around 15 years old.

Travis

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4219
  • Location: California
Re: Crytpocurrency Returns not what They Used to be.
« Reply #8 on: November 12, 2020, 07:48:15 PM »
I doubt many people here in 2017 would have attacked you...
That's true. I'm actually posting this here now because I know that you guys agree with me. I'm tired of arguing with idiots on other forums/YouTube channels, despite being repeatedly right.

Maybe for your own mental health you should avoid talking crypto with those people?

I avoid talking crypto with literally anyone outside of this forum, other than colleagues who are investment experts.
I stopped engaging with them months ago. They don't even have a grasp of basic math, or market cap. They claim it doesn't matter, lmao. I feel like the average cryptocurrency investor is somewhere around 15 years old.

Did you ever encounter CryptoNick?

ChpBstrd

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 6657
  • Location: A poor and backward Southern state known as minimum wage country
Re: Crytpocurrency Returns not what They Used to be.
« Reply #9 on: November 12, 2020, 08:10:04 PM »
The truth is that, going forward, returns in the cryptocurrency market are going to be much more modest and stock-like.

Why will crypto returns be stock-like? E.g. rising ~10% per year in the long term? What will cause something with no earnings or non-criminal utility to rise that way?

Bottom line: if you missed the pre-2017 cryptocurrency bull runs, I'm sorry to tell you that you missed the boat.

If crypto returns are stock-like, we should pile in now because we have not missed the boat, right? You're saying they will be a leading asset class.

ender

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 7402
Re: Crytpocurrency Returns not what They Used to be.
« Reply #10 on: November 12, 2020, 08:25:27 PM »
The days of easy money from this asset class are permanently over. I said this in 2017, yet everyone attacked me back then because the truth was too painful to hear. People just wanted to indulge in their pathetic fantasy of being "early" investors that were going to get rich in the next bull run. They believed this, mind you, while the cryptocurrency market cap was measured in hundreds of billions of dollars! Human delusion really knows no bounds. (eye roll)

The truth is that, going forward, returns in the cryptocurrency market are going to be much more modest and stock-like. That's been true since 2017, and it will continue to be true indefinitely. And, while it's still possible to hit the jackpot by investing in a small-cap coin that goes parabolic, this has become exceedingly difficult.

Bottom line: if you missed the pre-2017 cryptocurrency bull runs, I'm sorry to tell you that you missed the boat.

Bitcoin was worth around $1k each when 2017 started and is now worth $16k+ so I'm not particularly sure that your math checks out.
« Last Edit: November 13, 2020, 07:13:39 AM by ender »

Metalcat

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 17378
Re: Crytpocurrency Returns not what They Used to be.
« Reply #11 on: November 13, 2020, 05:27:54 AM »
I doubt many people here in 2017 would have attacked you...
That's true. I'm actually posting this here now because I know that you guys agree with me. I'm tired of arguing with idiots on other forums/YouTube channels, despite being repeatedly right.

Maybe for your own mental health you should avoid talking crypto with those people?

I avoid talking crypto with literally anyone outside of this forum, other than colleagues who are investment experts.
I stopped engaging with them months ago. They don't even have a grasp of basic math, or market cap. They claim it doesn't matter, lmao. I feel like the average cryptocurrency investor is somewhere around 15 years old.

Yeah, talking to online crypto communities about investing is kind of like talking to MLM communities about entrepreneurship. Actually, you have to remember that this is often the same population since there are MLM companies that market crypto.

I know that here and Bogleheads both have some pro crypto folks who are quite well informed. I'm sure there are some other enclaves of the internet where crypto talk isn't primarily dominated by the easily manipulated and confused.

We had the same hysteria here in Canada over pot stocks, I could barely talk to anyone without hearing their unsolicited and uninformed advice about buying pot stocks. I literally had a call center guy from my web hosting service blather on about how I had to get into pot stocks.

The vast majority of the population doesn't understand investing, and those who don't are more likely to get caught up in various investment frenzies.

Don't stress about it, just don't engage. You can't change anyone's mind unless they want you to.

onecoolcat

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 632
Re: Crytpocurrency Returns not what They Used to be.
« Reply #12 on: November 13, 2020, 10:55:09 AM »
I’ve made much greater returns investing in crypto than any other asset of mine.  I don’t trade either.  Just buy, hold and take out periodic investments when it grows.  Unfortunately, I’m very conservative so I only put in a couple grand since 2017.  It still beats out my holdings of S&P 500 index funds, by a lot, over the past 4 years.  The S&P has done phenomenal over that time as well so that is saying a lot.  My crypto portfolio has more than doubled each year for the past 2-years and that is after I took out my periodic investments.  This is just in bitcoin and ethereum.  I don’t think your math checks out OP.

Other than ethereum I don’t have a lot of altcoins.  However, I will say that historically bitcoin goes up a lot and altcoins bleed into bitcoin.  Then bitcoin stabilizes and the altcoins go parabolic.  I’m not putting my money where my mouth is (I’m conservative in investing in crypto) but I would say the altcoins are bleeding into bitcoin right now and sometime in the next year you will see parabolic altcoins.  Who knows.  I’m leaving my investment interest in bitcoin and ethereum right where it’s at.
« Last Edit: November 13, 2020, 10:59:15 AM by OneCoolCat »

joer1212

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 435
Re: Crytpocurrency Returns not what They Used to be.
« Reply #13 on: November 13, 2020, 12:25:10 PM »
I’ve made much greater returns investing in crypto than any other asset of mine.  I don’t trade either.  Just buy, hold and take out periodic investments when it grows.  Unfortunately, I’m very conservative so I only put in a couple grand since 2017.  It still beats out my holdings of S&P 500 index funds, by a lot, over the past 4 years.  The S&P has done phenomenal over that time as well so that is saying a lot.  My crypto portfolio has more than doubled each year for the past 2-years and that is after I took out my periodic investments.  This is just in bitcoin and ethereum.  I don’t think your math checks out OP.

Other than ethereum I don’t have a lot of altcoins.  However, I will say that historically bitcoin goes up a lot and altcoins bleed into bitcoin.  Then bitcoin stabilizes and the altcoins go parabolic.  I’m not putting my money where my mouth is (I’m conservative in investing in crypto) but I would say the altcoins are bleeding into bitcoin right now and sometime in the next year you will see parabolic altcoins.  Who knows.  I’m leaving my investment interest in bitcoin and ethereum right where it’s at.
Oh, I'm not claiming that cryptocurrencies are no longer profitable, but that they are not nearly as profitable as they were prior to 2017. If I thought they wouldn't at least outpace the S&P 500 in the long run, I wouldn't have a portfolio of over 30 coins, including Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, Neo, DASH, Monero, etc..

However, the days of 50X and 100X returns in just a few months for popular coins are over. Anyone who starts investing in the cryptocurrency market today should adjust their expectations for much more modest gains. I myself will be happy if my crypto portfolio simply outpaces a micro-cap stock index fund (or a small-cap value index fund) in the next 10 years. That's my benchmark to beat. If it doesn't, holding cryptocurrencies will not have been worth the risk.
« Last Edit: November 13, 2020, 12:43:29 PM by joer1212 »

joer1212

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 435
Re: Crytpocurrency Returns not what They Used to be.
« Reply #14 on: November 13, 2020, 12:39:31 PM »
Yeah, talking to online crypto communities about investing is kind of like talking to MLM communities about entrepreneurship. Actually, you have to remember that this is often the same population since there are MLM companies that market crypto.

The vast majority of the population doesn't understand investing, and those who don't are more likely to get caught up in various investment frenzies.
The funny thing is how people get caught up in investing frenzies only after they've heard the masses talking about them (whether it be it cryptocurrency, commodities, gold, etc.).

The fact is that, once you hear hype about an asset, that's a good indication that it's already too late to invest in it for large gains, as the asset in question has already been bid up in price due to its popularity. That's the great irony of investing-- the time to put money in an asset is when people are not taking about it, not when they are. Popular investments make very poor investments.
« Last Edit: November 13, 2020, 12:41:07 PM by joer1212 »

Metalcat

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 17378
Re: Crytpocurrency Returns not what They Used to be.
« Reply #15 on: November 13, 2020, 01:37:36 PM »
Yeah, talking to online crypto communities about investing is kind of like talking to MLM communities about entrepreneurship. Actually, you have to remember that this is often the same population since there are MLM companies that market crypto.

The vast majority of the population doesn't understand investing, and those who don't are more likely to get caught up in various investment frenzies.
The funny thing is how people get caught up in investing frenzies only after they've heard the masses talking about them (whether it be it cryptocurrency, commodities, gold, etc.).

The fact is that, once you hear hype about an asset, that's a good indication that it's already too late to invest in it for large gains, as the asset in question has already been bid up in price due to its popularity. That's the great irony of investing-- the time to put money in an asset is when people are not taking about it, not when they are. Popular investments make very poor investments.

I mean, that's a decent rule of thumb, but it's a lot more nuanced than that. Apple, Tesla, Amazon, etc are all very popular investments and some very intelligent people here invest in them.

Michael in ABQ

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2626
Re: Crytpocurrency Returns not what They Used to be.
« Reply #16 on: November 13, 2020, 01:49:21 PM »
I still remember reading about bitcoin on a tech forum I frequented back in the early 2000s. I could have joined in on one of the early mining collectives and probably received a few bitcoin. Of course back then it was worth maybe $1 each and there was zero adoption. I seriously doubt I would have just held on to it for 10-15 years. Same with thinking hard about buying Amazon stock in 2007 at $75/share after I saw an early Kindle prototype (had to sign an NDA). A year later I saw the price hadn't moved much even after the Kindle came out. Of course now it's over $3,000.

Woulda, coulda, shoulda. I'll stick with my index investing and work on building a business. 

YYK

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 140
  • Location: Scattered disc
Re: Crytpocurrency Returns not what They Used to be.
« Reply #17 on: November 13, 2020, 02:37:28 PM »
Same with thinking hard about buying Amazon stock in 2007 at $75/share after I saw an early Kindle prototype (had to sign an NDA).

Serious question, would that constitute insider trading? That seems like it wouldn't be definite knowledge of future profitability but is still non-public info. Not that anyone would find out either way...

forgerator

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 45
Re: Crytpocurrency Returns not what They Used to be.
« Reply #18 on: November 14, 2020, 05:02:05 PM »
2015: Top altcoins rise 100X (10,000%) in 3 months, and no one bats an eye.

2020: Top altcoins rise 40% in a year, and everyone goes crazy.

Just LOL at how sheepish and gullible most people are.

The days of easy money from this asset class are permanently over. I said this in 2017, yet everyone attacked me back then because the truth was too painful to hear. People just wanted to indulge in their pathetic fantasy of being "early" investors that were going to get rich in the next bull run. They believed this, mind you, while the cryptocurrency market cap was measured in hundreds of billions of dollars! Human delusion really knows no bounds. (eye roll)

The truth is that, going forward, returns in the cryptocurrency market are going to be much more modest and stock-like. That's been true since 2017, and it will continue to be true indefinitely. And, while it's still possible to hit the jackpot by investing in a small-cap coin that goes parabolic, this has become exceedingly difficult.

Bottom line: if you missed the pre-2017 cryptocurrency bull runs, I'm sorry to tell you that you missed the boat.

actually such returns were to be had this summer when DeFi space started growing. A lot of coins more than 10xed for e.g. Chainlink, Band token, Yearn.Finance etc.
It's another thing that the DeFi bubble burst, but who knows what's in store once Ethereum 2.0 comes out. Adoption is rapidly increasing in this space so I would think this asset class would continue to accelerate (more so than stocks)

Michael in ABQ

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2626
Re: Crytpocurrency Returns not what They Used to be.
« Reply #19 on: November 14, 2020, 09:32:35 PM »
Same with thinking hard about buying Amazon stock in 2007 at $75/share after I saw an early Kindle prototype (had to sign an NDA).

Serious question, would that constitute insider trading? That seems like it wouldn't be definite knowledge of future profitability but is still non-public info. Not that anyone would find out either way...

That was part of the reason I never pulled the trigger. When I saw that a year later the price hadn't changed I figured it wasn't quite the game-changed I initially thought.

I wasn't an employee or anything, just a college student who got to tour their secretish lab in Silicon Valley (technically it was a separate company since establishing a presence in California back then would have meant having to collect sales tax).

BrokenBiscuits

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 31
Re: Crytpocurrency Returns not what They Used to be.
« Reply #20 on: November 15, 2020, 12:15:21 AM »
Interesting to see “the days of easy money are over” and “only 40% returns a year now” in the same sentence.

We obviously have different needs and wants on returns.

joer1212

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 435
Re: Crytpocurrency Returns not what They Used to be.
« Reply #21 on: November 15, 2020, 09:40:36 PM »
Interesting to see “the days of easy money are over” and “only 40% returns a year now” in the same sentence.

We obviously have different needs and wants on returns.
Everything is relative. 40% a year for a stock index fund is phenomenal, but not compared to cryptocurrencies, which have had life-changing returns in just a few short years.

Take Ethereum, for example.

On Oct 21, 2015, its price was just 4 cents. But, by early January, 2018, Ethereum had skyrocketed to over $1,432!

Similar returns were achieved for many other cryptocurrencies as well.

Does 40% annually still sound good to you?

My point is that there is a stark contrast between the absolutely mind-boggling returns that cryptocurrencies at large used to achieve, versus the returns that that they get now.
Yes, you can still make money with this asset class, but the gains are likely not going to change your life the way it did for the pre-2017 investors. By that metric, we long missed the boat.

« Last Edit: November 17, 2020, 10:38:06 AM by joer1212 »

BrokenBiscuits

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 31
Re: Crytpocurrency Returns not what They Used to be.
« Reply #22 on: November 16, 2020, 06:04:04 AM »
Does 40% annually still sound good to you?
Yes. I could retire in 2 years.
If I got 40% forever , I could retire now.

ChpBstrd

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 6657
  • Location: A poor and backward Southern state known as minimum wage country
Re: Crytpocurrency Returns not what They Used to be.
« Reply #23 on: November 16, 2020, 08:59:38 AM »
I think the more interesting question is when will crypto actually be useful for legal trade? It is almost the year 2021 and you can’t buy merch on Amazon or groceries at Kroger with crypto. What exactly is the hold up if crypto has all these benefits? When will my bank account be multi-currency? When will we start hearing about people picking up crypto because they want to spend it (as opposed to greater-fool speculation)?

joer1212

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 435
Re: Crytpocurrency Returns not what They Used to be.
« Reply #24 on: November 17, 2020, 10:40:21 AM »
I think the more interesting question is when will crypto actually be useful for legal trade? It is almost the year 2021 and you can’t buy merch on Amazon or groceries at Kroger with crypto. What exactly is the hold up if crypto has all these benefits? When will my bank account be multi-currency? When will we start hearing about people picking up crypto because they want to spend it (as opposed to greater-fool speculation)?
I think one of the main reasons for the holdup, aside from regulatory issues, is cryptocurrency's inherent volatility, which (for now at least) makes it unsuitable as a currency of exchange.

joer1212

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 435
Re: Crytpocurrency Returns not what They Used to be.
« Reply #25 on: November 17, 2020, 10:43:52 AM »
Does 40% annually still sound good to you?
Yes. I could retire in 2 years.
If I got 40% forever , I could retire now.
Even I would be thrilled with steady 40% annual returns, but the catch is that they don't last, not even in cryptocurrencies. That's why it was so crucial to catch the crypto cab before 2017.

ChpBstrd

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 6657
  • Location: A poor and backward Southern state known as minimum wage country
Re: Crytpocurrency Returns not what They Used to be.
« Reply #26 on: November 17, 2020, 11:17:29 AM »
I think the more interesting question is when will crypto actually be useful for legal trade? It is almost the year 2021 and you can’t buy merch on Amazon or groceries at Kroger with crypto. What exactly is the hold up if crypto has all these benefits? When will my bank account be multi-currency? When will we start hearing about people picking up crypto because they want to spend it (as opposed to greater-fool speculation)?
I think one of the main reasons for the holdup, aside from regulatory issues, is cryptocurrency's inherent volatility, which (for now at least) makes it unsuitable as a currency of exchange.

The usual explanation for volatile assets is that liquidity is low (think penny stocks) or there is uncertainty about the asset's fundamentals, such as earnings, bankruptcy risk, or a lawsuit outcome. It's a factor of liquidity and uncertainty.

In the case of crypto - there is certainly many times more money in the ecosystem than is required to create an efficient market. With multiple electronic exchanges and arbitrage opportunities, there should be plenty of liquidity.

Thus, I think the volatility endures even at this advanced level of market development because there are no fundamentals. Even the currency of a small developing country has some utility in international trade, but what does litecoin or EOS do for anyone? When one factor in the volatility equation is near zero, you get something like a butterfly effect.

HPstache

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2858
  • Age: 37
Re: Crytpocurrency Returns not what They Used to be.
« Reply #27 on: November 17, 2020, 11:27:08 AM »
This thread reminded me that I had a $100 crypto investment kicking around that I just sold for a yearly average return of ~7.5% .  Now the question is, can I actually get it out as cash...

BicycleB

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5263
  • Location: Coolest Neighborhood on Earth, They Say
  • Older than the internet, but not wiser... yet
Re: Crytpocurrency Returns not what They Used to be.
« Reply #28 on: November 17, 2020, 05:55:57 PM »
I think the more interesting question is when will crypto actually be useful for legal trade? It is almost the year 2021 and you can’t buy merch on Amazon or groceries at Kroger with crypto. What exactly is the hold up if crypto has all these benefits? When will my bank account be multi-currency? When will we start hearing about people picking up crypto because they want to spend it (as opposed to greater-fool speculation)?

I don't know, but in my neighborhood, the convenience store allows you to purchase Bitcoin. My neighborhood has a variety of people - I wondered if purchasers were using it for illegal transactions, but suppose it's possible the purchasers are using it for legal ones (or speculation). Certainly was an interesting thing to notice last week!

To your point, the sign didn't say whether store goods could be bought using BTC.

ChpBstrd

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 6657
  • Location: A poor and backward Southern state known as minimum wage country
Re: Crytpocurrency Returns not what They Used to be.
« Reply #29 on: November 18, 2020, 09:52:55 AM »
I think the more interesting question is when will crypto actually be useful for legal trade? It is almost the year 2021 and you can’t buy merch on Amazon or groceries at Kroger with crypto. What exactly is the hold up if crypto has all these benefits? When will my bank account be multi-currency? When will we start hearing about people picking up crypto because they want to spend it (as opposed to greater-fool speculation)?

I don't know, but in my neighborhood, the convenience store allows you to purchase Bitcoin. My neighborhood has a variety of people - I wondered if purchasers were using it for illegal transactions, but suppose it's possible the purchasers are using it for legal ones (or speculation). Certainly was an interesting thing to notice last week!

To your point, the sign didn't say whether store goods could be bought using BTC.

Guess it makes sense to sell BTC next to lotto tickets.
But what happens if that's all cryptocurrencies turn out to be, and there is no guaranteed payout?

onecoolcat

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 632
Re: Crytpocurrency Returns not what They Used to be.
« Reply #30 on: November 18, 2020, 12:48:53 PM »
Does 40% annually still sound good to you?
Yes. I could retire in 2 years.
If I got 40% forever , I could retire now.
Even I would be thrilled with steady 40% annual returns, but the catch is that they don't last, not even in cryptocurrencies. That's why it was so crucial to catch the crypto cab before 2017. 

Thing is that it has lasted.  There is only a period of maybe 14 days in the 10+ years bitcoin has been around that you could have bought bitcoin and lost money.  If you bought anytime in the 3 years you would be up a lot.  Will it continue?  Probably but just like any other asset there will be ups and downs. 

Telecaster

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3551
  • Location: Seattle, WA
Re: Crytpocurrency Returns not what They Used to be.
« Reply #31 on: November 18, 2020, 02:23:04 PM »
Thing is that it has lasted.  There is only a period of maybe 14 days in the 10+ years bitcoin has been around that you could have bought bitcoin and lost money.  If you bought anytime in the 3 years you would be up a lot.  Will it continue?  Probably but just like any other asset there will be ups and downs.

It isn't like other assets though.   Gold is recognized has having a store of value, but in addition to people who want it for that purpose, there is also demand for it for industrial and jewelry purposes so there is a basic floor to the price.  At some point somebody needs golds and buys it.   Everyone else just buys it to horde it.   BTC claims to be a store of value, similar to gold, but other than that, there's no floor. 

BTC has a market cap roughly the same as Pfizer.   Unlike BTC, Pfizer made about $16 billion in profits last year, pays a good dividend, and has been consistently profitable for decades.  So which would be  a better investment?  $16,000 or BTC, or $16,000 of Pfizer?  You can at least calculate what your expected return is with Pfizer.   BTC is just like gold in that you have no idea what the future value would be. 

joer1212

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 435
Re: Crytpocurrency Returns not what They Used to be.
« Reply #32 on: November 18, 2020, 03:12:49 PM »
Does 40% annually still sound good to you?
Yes. I could retire in 2 years.
If I got 40% forever , I could retire now.
Even I would be thrilled with steady 40% annual returns, but the catch is that they don't last, not even in cryptocurrencies. That's why it was so crucial to catch the crypto cab before 2017. 

Thing is that it has lasted.  There is only a period of maybe 14 days in the 10+ years bitcoin has been around that you could have bought bitcoin and lost money.  If you bought anytime in the 3 years you would be up a lot.  Will it continue?  Probably but just like any other asset there will be ups and downs.
I was referring to several altcoins, not just Bitcoin.
« Last Edit: November 18, 2020, 08:49:30 PM by joer1212 »

YYK

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 140
  • Location: Scattered disc
Re: Crytpocurrency Returns not what They Used to be.
« Reply #33 on: November 24, 2020, 07:27:29 AM »
Bitcoin is back in the news. Top is in?

onecoolcat

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 632
Re: Crytpocurrency Returns not what They Used to be.
« Reply #34 on: November 24, 2020, 12:37:30 PM »
Bitcoin is back in the news. Top is in?

Doubt it.  I honestly think this is just the beginning of a bull run.  It’s acting the same way it did 4 years ago and 4 years before that and 4 years before that. I wouldn’t be surprised if bitcoin takes a pretty big dip in the coming days since it is near it’s all time high and lots of folks probably want to take profits.  I don’t know if the same trend will continue as past bull runs but I’m fairly confident it will continue to go up a lot more than the stock market in the grand scheme of things.

My altcoins, I don’t have much in value, are all up like 15-30% today.  Crazy.