Hi everyone
I hope someone could help me find the relevant information, maybe in some blog I couldn't find. I was curious about the crash probability after an all-time high, specifically:
1) Has there ever been an all-time high (let's pretend a random proxy market index was at an all-time high 10'000 in 1992) that was the bottom of the stock market too? In my example would mean that this index after 1992 NEVER EVER went down under 10'000 again. How common is this? I presume it will be common if we found ourselves in a bull market rising to new highs every day, but over a period of 5-10-20-50 years?
2) If a "crash" happened, (also the stock market went below the past all time high), after how many years in average could you say that you are "safe" (that means that the probability that the index fall down to where it was is very small, like a crash of 80-90%)?
I'm trying to build my arguments portfolio for discussions about long term horizon and what can be considered truly long term. Thanks for any help! Are there tools somewhere that could help me?
NB the starting point would be investing in a new "all-time" high, so not many starting points are available statistically....