Over the weekend, growth in new COVID-19 cases fell so far, that Sunday had fewer new cases than Saturday. In Europe, the death rate is falling, which is also good news. Overall, an optimistic outlook for COVID-19 ending earlier than expected, without millions infected. But people need to stay indoors, away from each other, or the effort at social distancing will be wasted. But right now, it seems to be working.
Millions are still going to be infected.
The daily number of new cases in the U.S. for the last 3 days is: 33.8k, 26.6k, 29.0k. With 29k cases per day it takes 3 weeks to reach 1 million cases, let alone more. And the growth has been steadily declining.
Should millions stay at home and keep social distancing, yes - it's working. People should be afraid of millions of cases, like you mention. But by predicting it, experts can convince people to avoid that outcome.
Over the weekend, I looked at various scenarios of how leverage impacts losses. Much like a business losing money, if you don't cut costs the whole operation goes under. Same with investing using leverage. Per my weekend planning, I'm now holding 118% stocks / -18% bonds.
That's a gutsy move. How do you get -18% bonds?
By opening a margin account, and buying on margin. Existing equities act as collateral for the margin loan. Most brokerages offer margin loans - but they are expensive. I'm prepared to keep margin for 2 years, but I hope to only need it for months.
I am only using margin to invest for the recovery. If I'm wrong, and stocks fall more than I expect, I will taper off my margin account (paying it off). If I'm right, and stocks recover, I'll also taper off as stocks near recovery levels.
The best margin rates are at Interactive Brokers, but it's a very risky strategy that can lead to -100% loss of not just the loan, but all of your investments. It's very important to accept losses, and pay off the loan if the markets take a turn for the worse.
He's not. He's in fantasy land where he thinks that selling 18% of your position is the same thing as going short by 18%. lol.
In case you missed it when I corrected you earlier:
"A short, or a short position, is created when a trader sells a security first with the intention of repurchasing it or covering it later at a lower price."
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/short.asp