Author Topic: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?  (Read 50513 times)

waltworks

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #500 on: March 21, 2020, 11:14:03 AM »
Time to resurrect the WPA and fix/create some great infrastructure, fund a lot of basic scientific research, redirect some military spending to civilian projects, etc.

IMO just dramatically increasing/improving unemployment benefits would be better than helicopter money but maybe that takes too long to accomplish or something.

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maizefolk

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #501 on: March 21, 2020, 11:46:11 AM »
I also think it's crazy to send checks to people that are still working.  It should be directed specifically to those that need it.

There was a nice interview with Neel Kashkari (president of the Minneapolis fed) on Planet Money on Friday. He was in the Treasury under Bush and then Obama at the peak of the financial crisis.

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Kashkari: The second lesson is don't worry about targeting your programs. In both the Bush and Obama administrations, and the Congress designed lots of programs to try to help homeowners in 2008 and 2009 avoid foreclosure. But the American people were angry about bailouts, and they said, we don't want our neighbor who was irresponsible getting a bailout. So we had lots of screening criteria. Well, because of all that, very few homeowners actually got helped by all of our programs. And in my opinion, the housing downturn was more severe than it needed to be. We were penny-wise and pound-foolish.

And so today, in the COVID crisis, policymakers should be focused on helping as many businesses and as many workers as possible, not trying to narrowly target who needs - who's deserving and who's not. If we waste time trying to make those distinctions, we're going to be too late.

waltworks

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #502 on: March 21, 2020, 12:15:06 PM »
Yeah, this isn't the time for zero-sum-game thinking. Helping people who are out of a job, and fast, is more important than giving a few bucks to someone who doesn't deserve it. The end result looks better for everyone, probably.

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TempusFugit

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #503 on: March 21, 2020, 12:19:54 PM »
Yeah, that's what I've been reading also, that the cost of trying to tailor the response to certain criteria will make it harder to actually have the positive impact we need.

I'm currently reading Malcolm Gladwell's book What the Dog Saw and one of the essays within is about the cost / benefit of simply providing free housing to the hard core worst of the worst homeless population.  It seems to be the most effective and actually lowest cost by far solution, but no one from either end of the political divide can really stomach the idea of 'rewarding' the worst actors. 

Similarly, the idea of sending money to people who don't need it is a hard thing to sell, but in the end it could be the best of a bad set of choices simply for the transparency and speed with which it could be done.  We can't afford to be too clever here.

One hopes that any of us who may be fortunate enough that we aren't in dire straights during this meltdown might take any largess we receive from Uncle Sam and redirect it to people who do need it. 

Radagast

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #504 on: March 21, 2020, 12:40:50 PM »
I've been thinking that too. I don't approve of the government bailing out certain companies or people. For one thing, it is highly divisive. For another, it often rewards bad behaviour. Better to tax people according to their wealth, but distribute benefits equally. Doing so enhances feelings of solidarity, and lets people face the consequences of their economic mistakes which I feel is still very important. It also might give a few second chances to people who are victims of various forms of "bad luck."

American GenX

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #505 on: March 21, 2020, 12:49:04 PM »
I've been thinking that too. I don't approve of the government bailing out certain companies or people. For one thing, it is highly divisive. For another, it often rewards bad behaviour. Better to tax people according to their wealth, but distribute benefits equally. Doing so enhances feelings of solidarity, and lets people face the consequences of their economic mistakes which I feel is still very important. It also might give a few second chances to people who are victims of various forms of "bad luck."

But that's not what is being done.  If your income in 2018 was above $75,000, it will phase out the stimulus amount, and then you get nothing with an income above $99,000.  That's not equal.  So, if you're not going to be equal, at least direct it to the people who are losing their jobs, not people who are still working earning $75,000, and partially to $99,000.  2018's income isn't going to indicate how poorly people are doing today, anyway.  Someone could have made over $100,000 then and be unemployed now and wouldn't qualify for the stimulus.
« Last Edit: March 21, 2020, 12:57:52 PM by American GenX »

American GenX

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #506 on: March 21, 2020, 12:55:29 PM »
IMO just dramatically increasing/improving unemployment benefits would be better than helicopter money but maybe that takes too long to accomplish or something.
-W

Yes, that would certainly be better than distributing checks to people who are still working.  It's not going to be distributed equally to everyone, anyway, based on the thresholds for phasing out based on 2018 income, so we might as well use a more logical target for the stimulus.

waltworks

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #507 on: March 21, 2020, 01:09:19 PM »
IMO just dramatically increasing/improving unemployment benefits would be better than helicopter money but maybe that takes too long to accomplish or something.
-W

Yes, that would certainly be better than distributing checks to people who are still working.  It's not going to be distributed equally to everyone, anyway, based on the thresholds for phasing out based on 2018 income, so we might as well use a more logical target for the stimulus.

Sure, but the question is whether that for some reason is harder/slower to do. That's the argument I've heard made here and I have no particular experience to argue for or against that.

Honestly, if I ran the circus, I'd probably do both. This is essentially a war, fairness is something we can worry about later.

-W

maizefolk

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #508 on: March 21, 2020, 01:39:09 PM »
I've been thinking that too. I don't approve of the government bailing out certain companies or people. For one thing, it is highly divisive. For another, it often rewards bad behaviour. Better to tax people according to their wealth, but distribute benefits equally. Doing so enhances feelings of solidarity, and lets people face the consequences of their economic mistakes which I feel is still very important. It also might give a few second chances to people who are victims of various forms of "bad luck."

But that's not what is being done.  If your income in 2018 was above $75,000, it will phase out the stimulus amount, and then you get nothing with an income above $99,000. That's not equal.  So, if you're not going to be equal, at least direct it to the people who are losing their jobs, not people who are still working earning $75,000, and partially to $99,000.  2018's income isn't going to indicate how poorly people are doing today, anyway.  Someone could have made over $100,000 then and be unemployed now and wouldn't qualify for the stimulus.

I agree with you that the proposal from the senate republicans doesn't treat people equally.

But I would argue the solution is one that does treat people equally (and, as a result, also ensures everyone who has lost their job will receive a check regardless of their 2018 income).

It ensures no one who desperately needs it falls through the cracks and it can be put into place a lot faster. And as Radagast pointed out, it avoids the moral hazard of targeted bailouts.

Radagast

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #509 on: March 21, 2020, 01:39:55 PM »
I've been thinking that too. I don't approve of the government bailing out certain companies or people. For one thing, it is highly divisive. For another, it often rewards bad behaviour. Better to tax people according to their wealth, but distribute benefits equally. Doing so enhances feelings of solidarity, and lets people face the consequences of their economic mistakes which I feel is still very important. It also might give a few second chances to people who are victims of various forms of "bad luck."

But that's not what is being done.  If your income in 2018 was above $75,000, it will phase out the stimulus amount, and then you get nothing with an income above $99,000.  That's not equal.  So, if you're not going to be equal, at least direct it to the people who are losing their jobs, not people who are still working earning $75,000, and partially to $99,000.  2018's income isn't going to indicate how poorly people are doing today, anyway.  Someone could have made over $100,000 then and be unemployed now and wouldn't qualify for the stimulus.
I would tend to agree with that. I was thinking more along the lines of student loans, mortgages, and airline bailouts; because what about people who paid off their loans, did not need them, or did not go to school; people who rent, or paid off their house; airlines that stockpiled cash instead of buying shares to enrich their wealthiest owners? Those are cases where I would say "screw 'em, distribute the money equally and let people live with their choices."

Villanelle

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #510 on: March 21, 2020, 01:54:38 PM »
Basing the stimulus on 2018 money may be the best we can do on a tight timeline, but it seems like simply adding something that says you get a check now but if your 2020 return shows income over $75,000, you will have to pay it back.  So people still working through this crisis will have gotten in interest-free loan, and those not working will have gotten a bit of money to help them weather the storm. 

And perhaps something saying that if you didn't get a check because you were making too much and you lose your job, you can apply (ideally via UA, in most cases) to get that check.  And same rules apply--if you end up making over $75k/$100k in the year anyway, you will have to pay back some/all of the money when you file in 2021 for the 2020 year. 

dragoncar

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #511 on: March 21, 2020, 01:57:11 PM »
Plenty of people currently working are losing hours.  They could easily lose their jobs in a month.  They could be furloughed without pay.  They might not be spending on consumer goods but they need food and rent/mortgage payments

Put me in the camp of sending everyone a check.  We need serious lockdown to slow the spread of this virus and we need serious economic relief for everyone as a result of the lockdown.  Lockdown will be far less effective if people do not get economic relief

I dont care if we send a bit of extra money to billionaires.  They are going to have to pay it back in the end via taxation

dragoncar

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #512 on: March 21, 2020, 01:58:43 PM »
Basing the stimulus on 2018 money may be the best we can do on a tight timeline, but it seems like simply adding something that says you get a check now but if your 2020 return shows income over $75,000, you will have to pay it back.  So people still working through this crisis will have gotten in interest-free loan, and those not working will have gotten a bit of money to help them weather the storm. 

And perhaps something saying that if you didn't get a check because you were making too much and you lose your job, you can apply (ideally via UA, in most cases) to get that check.  And same rules apply--if you end up making over $75k/$100k in the year anyway, you will have to pay back some/all of the money when you file in 2021 for the 2020 year.

I do think thats what is being proposed.  Either way they are making complicated what doesnt need to be.  Even if we need an income cap just send everyone the checks now and pay it back at the end of the year if you made too much

YYK

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #513 on: March 21, 2020, 02:20:31 PM »
Do you know when a vaccine was found for SARS?  They're still working on it, 18 years after SARS.

The impression I got from a couple of different mentions was that the SARS vaccine was largely forgotten after the outbreak subsided, so I hope it's a problem of attention/funding and not a problem of physical possibility. It seems like this time there's plenty of interest in ensuring a vaccine is deployed as soon as possible.

TempusFugit

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #514 on: March 21, 2020, 03:47:02 PM »
Vaccine development is hugely expensive and not particularly profitable, so yes, i think they simply stopped active work on it after it fizzled out. 

Im beginning to think we are overreacting to this and that the economic impact from shutting everything down is going to be worse than the virus.  I hope thats true, because the economic consequences are going to be incredible.

From some of what I've read, it seems that more basic measures taken individually, primarily hygiene habits and a little more awareness of what were doing around other people will have a huge impact on the transmission rates of this disease.  South Korea and Taiwan didn't shut everything down, but they've kept the rate of infections pretty low. 

Once we get testing really ramped up, which we are finally starting to do, we should be able to identify and contain much more effectively.  Certainly it is important for the particularly vulnerable to avoid contact with people right now, but to impose these restrictions on everyone for an indefinite period of time is probably worse for us as a society than the alternative.  That doesn't mean it isn't or wont be very very bad, just that the impact of these social distancing actions if maintained for any significant length of time may be much worse. 

I think that as a society, we will see that for a couple of weeks people will go along with it, especially if the numbers and impact are truly as bad as some are predicting, but by weeks 3 or 4  I think the basic character of the American people will force an end to the shutdowns.  Too many peoples lives will be turned upside down by job losses and general lack of social contact. 

For myself, i am trying to do the right thing and limit contact beyond grocery shopping and take out food occasionally, while we wait and see what happens in the next week or 2, but after just a single week of this, i can see how compliance is going to start faltering quickly.

It seems like a cruel thing to say, and i dont mean it harshly because i have loved ones who are older and vulnerable to this thing, but our nation (talking about the US) has for decades now enacted policies that have the effect of transferring lots of wealth from the young to the old in the form of entitlements.  This could be perhaps the most extreme example of forcing a sacrifice on the young to protect the old.  If we cause a new Great Depression with the response to this virus we could ruin a generation of our citizens financially primarily to protect the generation that has arguably already had the greatest run of favored treatment our society has ever known.

I am not saying we shouldn't do everything reasonable to protect all of our citizens, but there must be some point at which we say that the cost is too much to bear.  Losing our democracy and fundamentally changing our way of life, the things that we have gone to war for, is too high a cost.  Is that exaggeration? How will this play out if the government starts trying to coerce these lockdowns on a large scale?  What happens if the idea of postponing elections becomes a game played by the people in power?  We could be on a slippery slope toward a police state.  Im not saying thats around the corner or even a likely outcome, but I think it shows that yes there really is a point where most of us would say, no, thats too much to sacrifice for too few.   If we see actual real numbers of unemployment next month I think it will shock us and make even more of us question these responses. 

I hope that were right around the corner from a breakthrough treatment, and that this experience will actually have some positive effects on a society that has been fracturing because of tribalism and, frankly, a lack of any common struggle to unite us.  We may find that we are a much more kind and generous people than we realized and begin to heal the rifts that have been developing for the past 30 years.  This may, in short, all turn out to be a very well disguised blessing in the long run.  It could also turn very dark if we react in ways that are disproportionate to the threat.  I don't blame anyone for what we have done so far, i just think we have to reevaluate very soon. 

This post ran on a bit, i realize and got a little off topic of the investment thread but dammit, I've been sitting alone in my house for a week!   Im not right in the the head. 

maizefolk

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #515 on: March 21, 2020, 04:15:10 PM »
From some of what I've read, it seems that more basic measures taken individually, primarily hygiene habits and a little more awareness of what were doing around other people will have a huge impact on the transmission rates of this disease.  South Korea and Taiwan didn't shut everything down, but they've kept the rate of infections pretty low. 

Both countries had the twin advantages of:

1) Deploying testing early, when it is still logistically feasible to trace and quarantine+test all the contacts of people who test positive for the virus.

2) Enough PPE, and a culture that promotes everyone wearing it. Taiwan in particular started building new fabrication lines for face masks as soon as news broke in China, had the general public lining up to weekly rations of face masks. In the USA we're told not to wear face masks to free up supplies for hospitals.

It's true surgical masks don't do a great job of protecting an individual from infection, but face masks on infected individuals do a lot to protect everyone else around them, and if everyone wears a mask whenever they go out in public, that will include those already infected.

Quote
Once we get testing really ramped up, which we are finally starting to do, we should be able to identify and contain much more effectively.  Certainly it is important for the particularly vulnerable to avoid contact with people right now, but to impose these restrictions on everyone for an indefinite period of time is probably worse for us as a society than the alternative.  That doesn't mean it isn't or wont be very very bad, just that the impact of these social distancing actions if maintained for any significant length of time may be much worse. 

Unfortunately, in the US we are now well past the point where it is logistically possible to trace and quarantine folks who have been in contact with those already infected with the virus. We're up to almost 25,000 people who have tested positive in the USA even with most states only testing people sick enough to need hospitalization. About 20% of people infected with the coronavirus end up in the hospital, so the true number of people infected might be 100,000-125,000. If each of those people can into contact with only 10 people a day (some of them doubtless many more, just riding a subway car once a day would be several X that number), and was infectious for a week prior to being tested, that is 7-8.75M people to identify, locate, and quarantine.

That's why the talk has switched from prevention to simply slowing down the spread. 

Quote
I am not saying we shouldn't do everything reasonable to protect all of our citizens, but there must be some point at which we say that the cost is too much to bear.  Losing our democracy and fundamentally changing our way of life, the things that we have gone to war for, is too high a cost.  Is that exaggeration? How will this play out if the government starts trying to coerce these lockdowns on a large scale?  What happens if the idea of postponing elections becomes a game played by the people in power?  We could be on a slippery slope toward a police state.  Im not saying thats around the corner or even a likely outcome, but I think it shows that yes there really is a point where most of us would say, no, thats too much to sacrifice for too few.   If we see actual real numbers of unemployment next month I think it will shock us and make even more of us question these responses. 

I agree that I am not willing to sacrifice our democracy to stop a virus. I was talking to a friend in China who said: "Chinese value life, while the west values freedom."

I think though that you need to be careful about conflating economic impacts and political impacts. The difference between the two isn't one of degree, they are completely different types of things.

Could someone try to use the lockdown as an excuse to end elections? It's certainly possible and if it happens I don't think americans will go along with it. But I think we're more willing than you might guess to bear economic loss (as opposed to loss of political freedom) when people are scared for their lives and/or the lives of their family members.

This post ran on a bit, i realize and got a little off topic of the investment thread but dammit, I've been sitting alone in my house for a week!   Im not right in the the head. 

Makes complete sense. I was still at work yesterday, although I don't know when I'll ever get to go back outside at this point. A week is already a really long time.

Are you at least able to keep in touch with friend/family electronically? We humans aren't wired for prolonged social isolation (although a small number of people seem to thrive in it).

Travis

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #516 on: March 21, 2020, 05:20:58 PM »
I found a market timer!! See, folks, it is totally possible to time the market.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/19/us/politics/richard-burr-coronavirus-stocks.html

Quote
Aides to Mr. Burr said that the decision to sell the stocks was a private one, which took place long before the stock market plunged and evidence of a widespread health threat emerged in the United States.

Yes. That's the point.

...except he did it AFTER the high level Classified briefings where the best of the intelligence community told him how bad the coronavirus pandemic was going to be.

I think we're arguing the same point. The part I bolded was his staff's excuse for why what he did was okay. I was pointing out that that's the reason it may have been illegal.

American GenX

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #517 on: March 21, 2020, 05:37:43 PM »
It seems like a cruel thing to say, and i dont mean it harshly because i have loved ones who are older and vulnerable to this thing, but our nation (talking about the US) has for decades now enacted policies that have the effect of transferring lots of wealth from the young to the old in the form of entitlements.  This could be perhaps the most extreme example of forcing a sacrifice on the young to protect the old.  If we cause a new Great Depression with the response to this virus we could ruin a generation of our citizens financially primarily to protect the generation that has arguably already had the greatest run of favored treatment our society has ever known.

I am not saying we shouldn't do everything reasonable to protect all of our citizens, but there must be some point at which we say that the cost is too much to bear.

Older people paid into those entitlement programs all of their lives, and they are getting less benefit every year when adjusting for inflation and taxes.  Compare that to government pensions and healthcare subsidized heavily by taxpapers.

The illness is worse on average for older people, but lately, there's been more news about large numbers of younger people being hospitalized as well as them getting critical illness.  So, this is for you and many younger people as well.

"New data from the CDC suggest that adults of all ages can suffer severe COVID-19 disease. The data show that 20% of deaths were in US patients aged 20-65, and 20% of hospitalized patients in the United States were between 20 and 44 years old, as reported by MDedge on Medscape."

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/19/health/coronavirus-age-victims/index.html

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/18/health/coronavirus-young-people.html

https://www.propublica.org/article/a-medical-worker-describes--terrifying-lung-failure-from-covid19-even-in-his-young-patients

v8rx7guy

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #518 on: March 21, 2020, 05:57:37 PM »
Does anyone else like to go back to page 1 and read the early comments?

dragoncar

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #519 on: March 21, 2020, 06:13:32 PM »
Does anyone else like to go back to page 1 and read the early comments?

Going all in on hazmat suit manufacturers



Not a bad call (no I havent changed my allocations)

v8rx7guy

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #520 on: March 21, 2020, 06:16:26 PM »
Does anyone else like to go back to page 1 and read the early comments?

Going all in on hazmat suit manufacturers



Not a bad call (no I havent changed my allocations)

Haha...  should have pulled the trigger!!

Reader

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #521 on: March 21, 2020, 07:14:48 PM »
From some of what I've read, it seems that more basic measures taken individually, primarily hygiene habits and a little more awareness of what were doing around other people will have a huge impact on the transmission rates of this disease.  South Korea and Taiwan didn't shut everything down, but they've kept the rate of infections pretty low.

They had multiple lessons - SARS, H1N1, MERS. It would be a huge cultural shift to the Americans and Europeans for some of these habits - no handshakes, no pats on the back, no air kisses or pecks on the cheek, no hugging of strangers. in short, no bodily contact with people you're not intimate to begin with. wearing masks as the norm rather than an anomaly.

Work culture and worker protections would also have to change - no showing up at work even if you're feeling ill, more WFH to prevent people who have the sniffles from turning up in the office.

dragoncar

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #522 on: March 21, 2020, 09:03:13 PM »
So anyone here have the rona yet?

waltworks

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #523 on: March 21, 2020, 09:08:07 PM »
So anyone here have the rona yet?

Well, I'm sick (and so is my wife and 7 month old) but who knows? They're only testing people who are in pretty bad shape, though in a few more days there might be enough tests that I could get one. Not sure there's any point - we're keeping the whole family away from everyone else/self quarantining anyway. Thus far it's just like a moderate cold (which could quite well be what it is). 

Several friends in town have confirmed cases and are self-isolating. We're unhappily at the epicenter of Utah's outbreak (Park City, which as of 2 weeks ago was crowded with tourists from all over the world).

-W

dragoncar

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #524 on: March 21, 2020, 09:19:38 PM »
So anyone here have the rona yet?

Well, I'm sick (and so is my wife and 7 month old) but who knows? They're only testing people who are in pretty bad shape, though in a few more days there might be enough tests that I could get one. Not sure there's any point - we're keeping the whole family away from everyone else/self quarantining anyway. Thus far it's just like a moderate cold (which could quite well be what it is). 

Several friends in town have confirmed cases and are self-isolating. We're unhappily at the epicenter of Utah's outbreak (Park City, which as of 2 weeks ago was crowded with tourists from all over the world).

-W

Fair enough, I had a very mild sore throat and cough a while back and in general I was getting hyper aware of how I was feeling despite there still being tons of other viruses and pollens out there right now.  I dont think it was the covid (I still isolated) but I wonder if they will be widely using the antibody test once production ramps up.  My latest understanding is that asymptomatic and truly mild cases are not common (media reported a lot of mild cases but that was a clinical definition of mild not what a layperson would call mild.... for me it was on the border of is my throat dry from the cold weather/furnace?)

Travis

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #525 on: March 21, 2020, 10:05:35 PM »
So anyone here have the rona yet?

Well, I'm sick (and so is my wife and 7 month old) but who knows? They're only testing people who are in pretty bad shape, though in a few more days there might be enough tests that I could get one. Not sure there's any point - we're keeping the whole family away from everyone else/self quarantining anyway. Thus far it's just like a moderate cold (which could quite well be what it is). 

Several friends in town have confirmed cases and are self-isolating. We're unhappily at the epicenter of Utah's outbreak (Park City, which as of 2 weeks ago was crowded with tourists from all over the world).

-W

Fair enough, I had a very mild sore throat and cough a while back and in general I was getting hyper aware of how I was feeling despite there still being tons of other viruses and pollens out there right now.  I dont think it was the covid (I still isolated) but I wonder if they will be widely using the antibody test once production ramps up.  My latest understanding is that asymptomatic and truly mild cases are not common (media reported a lot of mild cases but that was a clinical definition of mild not what a layperson would call mild.... for me it was on the border of is my throat dry from the cold weather/furnace?)

Last month I was in Daegu two days before the church outbreak that accelerated the spread here. A week after that my son had a fever. It only lasted a couple days and went away, but that was a long weekend.

shinn497

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #526 on: March 22, 2020, 12:29:02 AM »
Who here still in the market? Who here is buying MOAR? Ride the roller coaster baybee

American GenX

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #527 on: March 22, 2020, 09:10:02 AM »
Who here still in the market? Who here is buying MOAR? Ride the roller coaster baybee
Still in the market...  Most of us?  I still haven't changed any of my investments as mentioned earlier in the thread.  I'm still expecting the market to drop further as I've been saying all along.

HuskieJoe

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #528 on: March 22, 2020, 09:31:12 AM »
I havent changed anything.  Watching the value of my wife and my 401(k), Roths, and taxable accounts go down with the market, and continuing dollar cost averaging about $4k / month into pretax and after tax 401k.  Also recently did a backdoor Roth IRA conversion, so I have some more cash to dollar cost average into the market.

American GenX

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #529 on: March 24, 2020, 04:41:04 PM »
Well, there was a pop in the S&P 500 today, and it didn't quite drop low enough for me to rebalance.

But I know this will be short-lived, and we will see recent lows soon reappear dropping even lower.
« Last Edit: March 24, 2020, 05:05:49 PM by American GenX »

moneytaichi

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #530 on: March 24, 2020, 10:54:30 PM »
Well, there was a pop in the S&P 500 today, and it didn't quite drop low enough for me to rebalance.

But I know this will be short-lived, and we will see recent lows soon reappear dropping even lower.
Agree. I have put some limit order for VTI dropping to $105. Today's closing price is $122.53, and yesterday is $111.91

FrugalSaver

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #531 on: March 24, 2020, 11:06:30 PM »
Well, there was a pop in the S&P 500 today, and it didn't quite drop low enough for me to rebalance.

But I know this will be short-lived, and we will see recent lows soon reappear dropping even lower.

How low do you think we go?

Villanelle

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #532 on: March 25, 2020, 02:48:21 AM »
Still in the market?  Of course.

I've changed nothing including monthly automatic investing. 

vand

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #533 on: March 25, 2020, 03:13:42 AM »
Anybody who knows that we are going lower - or higher - over the next days, weeks and even months is, to put it bluntly, full of crap.

True Investors will be focussing on what they think the market can realistically deliver over the next 10 years. Speculators either wishing to get in or out of the market will be agonising if we land on heads or tails over the next few coinflips.

If there is one thing that I've learnt it is that the markets tend to reward those who show humility and patience, and have a way of humbling those who are overconfident, and shortchanging those who are impatient.

Zoot Allures

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #534 on: March 25, 2020, 07:53:18 AM »
Coming to this thread rather late, but I'll chime in. I'm not planning to touch my 401k money for ~15 years, and was at an 80/20 AA (total stock/bond markets) before the shit hit the fan. I've had some cash sitting idle since selling my house last year and hadn't yet decided what to do with it, so in recent days I opened a brokerage account and bought some equities. I bought when the market was 20% down and again at 30%. I'll probably buy more, but I'm not looking to time the bottom or any such nonsense. I'm also going to keep a much larger emergency fund for a while than I would normally be inclined to have.

I rebalanced my 401k to 80/20, but am wondering if I might as well go 100% equities until the market claws its way back into the black. I had decided on 80/20 several years ago to smooth the ride a little. I'm not sure that's as important when we're in a severe downturn and the only direction to go (eventually) is up. What would others do?

VaCPA

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #535 on: March 25, 2020, 08:33:39 AM »
I have a pretty large emergency fund. Probably not as big as some people on the really conservative side might say I need, and a lot more than others would say I should keep in cash earning virtually nothing. I do live in a high COL area though. I'm not really changing anything with my 401k since most of it is in the Vanguard target date fund, so it's pretty much set & forget for me.

I was going to put $5k lump sum into my backdoor Roth this year and I'm also putting in $4000/year into my son's 529 on a monthly basis. The main thing this situation might affect for me is the timing of those deposits. I'm thinking of making the deposit for the Roth soon while the market is way down and also making a lump sum deposit into the 529 instead of continuing to do it monthly. I was going to open another 529 for my other son next year but thinking of doing that now too.

I'm tempted to take more of my cash and buy stock but don't think I'll do that. We're already maxing out the contribution amounts in my wife's ESPP so already have a small amount of skin in the stock market.

Radagast

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #536 on: March 25, 2020, 09:55:09 AM »
I moved my "cash" to Vanguard Municipal Money Market. Muni MM yields are higher than any MM or bond fund in their line up except long term corporate and high yield corporate. Plus, no taxes! Tax equivalent yield is the highest thing out there, including sign up bonuses.

I should probably take that as a sign to GTFO, but no, I'm off yield chasing.

ChpBstrd

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #537 on: March 25, 2020, 10:29:29 AM »
I moved my "cash" to Vanguard Municipal Money Market. Muni MM yields are higher than any MM or bond fund in their line up except long term corporate and high yield corporate. Plus, no taxes! Tax equivalent yield is the highest thing out there, including sign up bonuses.

I should probably take that as a sign to GTFO, but no, I'm off yield chasing.

(crocodile dundee voice)

Reaching for 1.32% is yield chasing? Nah.

I wrote a 10 put options on SBRA, a nursing home REIT with COVID-19 outbreaks and a 16% yield. Unfortunately, the stock rallied, I was not assigned, and I only made $1,000 on the deal. THAT'S reaching for yield.

(/crocodile dundee voice)

Radagast

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #538 on: March 25, 2020, 10:40:06 AM »
I moved my "cash" to Vanguard Municipal Money Market. Muni MM yields are higher than any MM or bond fund in their line up except long term corporate and high yield corporate. Plus, no taxes! Tax equivalent yield is the highest thing out there, including sign up bonuses.

I should probably take that as a sign to GTFO, but no, I'm off yield chasing.

(crocodile dundee voice)

Reaching for 1.32% is yield chasing? Nah.

3.77%! Equivalent to 4.8% for me. For "cash" that is high yield, but probably temporary.

maizefolk

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #539 on: March 25, 2020, 10:42:36 AM »
Exactly. Municipal Money Market yield is up a ridiculous amount, although it is backward looking at the last 7 days so not sure if the Fed's extraordinary action in the last couple of days has already driven the yields back down.

https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/profile/VMSXX

ChpBstrd

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #540 on: March 25, 2020, 11:10:05 AM »
I moved my "cash" to Vanguard Municipal Money Market. Muni MM yields are higher than any MM or bond fund in their line up except long term corporate and high yield corporate. Plus, no taxes! Tax equivalent yield is the highest thing out there, including sign up bonuses.

I should probably take that as a sign to GTFO, but no, I'm off yield chasing.

(crocodile dundee voice)

Reaching for 1.32% is yield chasing? Nah.

3.77%! Equivalent to 4.8% for me. For "cash" that is high yield, but probably temporary.

We're talking VMSXX, right? Upon searching a few more sites I'm getting conflicting info on the yield:

Vanguard: 3.77% https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/profile/VMSXX
MarketWatch: 1.32% https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/vmsxx
TD Ameritrade: 1.32% https://research.tdameritrade.com/grid/public/mutualfunds/profile/profile.asp?symbol=VMSXX
Bloomberg: 0.97% https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/VMSXX:US

Radagast

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #541 on: March 25, 2020, 11:36:38 AM »
I moved my "cash" to Vanguard Municipal Money Market. Muni MM yields are higher than any MM or bond fund in their line up except long term corporate and high yield corporate. Plus, no taxes! Tax equivalent yield is the highest thing out there, including sign up bonuses.

I should probably take that as a sign to GTFO, but no, I'm off yield chasing.

(crocodile dundee voice)

Reaching for 1.32% is yield chasing? Nah.

3.77%! Equivalent to 4.8% for me. For "cash" that is high yield, but probably temporary.

We're talking VMSXX, right? Upon searching a few more sites I'm getting conflicting info on the yield:

Vanguard: 3.77% https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/profile/VMSXX
MarketWatch: 1.32% https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/vmsxx
TD Ameritrade: 1.32% https://research.tdameritrade.com/grid/public/mutualfunds/profile/profile.asp?symbol=VMSXX
Bloomberg: 0.97% https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/VMSXX:US
Yup. Vanguard site is updated daily, and has been creeping up from 2.1% after Friday when I made the change. All of their muni MM funds have been doing that, and others as well I believe, so it's not a mistake. Two of your sources were last updated February 29.

BicycleB

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #542 on: March 25, 2020, 01:29:39 PM »
I moved my "cash" to Vanguard Municipal Money Market. Muni MM yields are higher than any MM or bond fund in their line up except long term corporate and high yield corporate. Plus, no taxes! Tax equivalent yield is the highest thing out there, including sign up bonuses.

I should probably take that as a sign to GTFO, but no, I'm off yield chasing.

(crocodile dundee voice)

Reaching for 1.32% is yield chasing? Nah.

I wrote a 10 put options on SBRA, a nursing home REIT with COVID-19 outbreaks and a 16% yield. Unfortunately, the stock rallied, I was not assigned, and I only made $1,000 on the deal. THAT'S reaching for yield.

(/crocodile dundee voice)

LOL, mate

MoMoneyFewerProblems

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #543 on: March 25, 2020, 01:47:10 PM »
Wow, a thread full of market timers.  Did I log onto the wrong forum?


funny how everybody now magically has cash on hand.  I'm thinking the folks sitting on cash are just now coming out of the woodwork.  Def been the majority of posts recently.
Late reply, but this guy gets it!
I raided my emergency fund.  Investing more when the markets on a fire sale is an emergency.

dragoncar

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #544 on: March 25, 2020, 03:04:50 PM »
I moved my "cash" to Vanguard Municipal Money Market. Muni MM yields are higher than any MM or bond fund in their line up except long term corporate and high yield corporate. Plus, no taxes! Tax equivalent yield is the highest thing out there, including sign up bonuses.

I should probably take that as a sign to GTFO, but no, I'm off yield chasing.

(crocodile dundee voice)

Reaching for 1.32% is yield chasing? Nah.

I wrote a 10 put options on SBRA, a nursing home REIT with COVID-19 outbreaks and a 16% yield. Unfortunately, the stock rallied, I was not assigned, and I only made $1,000 on the deal. THAT'S reaching for yield.

(/crocodile dundee voice)

LOL, mate

I see youve played markety optiony before

Steeze

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #545 on: March 25, 2020, 04:06:37 PM »
Wow, a thread full of market timers.  Did I log onto the wrong forum?


funny how everybody now magically has cash on hand.  I'm thinking the folks sitting on cash are just now coming out of the woodwork.  Def been the majority of posts recently.
Late reply, but this guy gets it!
I raided my emergency fund.  Investing more when the markets on a fire sale is an emergency.

Yup, VTSAX at 33% off is a damn emergency in my book.

Travis

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #546 on: March 25, 2020, 05:15:39 PM »
Email title from Personal Capital:

"You can't control the news, but you can control your finances."

Bullshit. I can do both at the same time.



Deletes email without opening it.

ChpBstrd

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #547 on: March 25, 2020, 09:52:28 PM »
Just for funsies, I predict the bottom will occur on March 24. It took 10 days of falling markets to hit the dead-cat bounce that peaked March 4, and itll take twice that long to hit bottom.

If I win, Ill apply for a job as a financial journalist with this as my credential. If I lose, Im another uninformed opinion on the internet.

Did I just miss the bottom call by 3 days? Or am I super influential and the last 3 days have been you all buying in?

dragoncar

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #548 on: March 25, 2020, 11:37:44 PM »
Just for funsies, I predict the bottom will occur on March 24. It took 10 days of falling markets to hit the dead-cat bounce that peaked March 4, and itll take twice that long to hit bottom.

If I win, Ill apply for a job as a financial journalist with this as my credential. If I lose, Im another uninformed opinion on the internet.

Did I just miss the bottom call by 3 days? Or am I super influential and the last 3 days have been you all buying in?

Sorry I only listen to Thorstach

effigy98

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Re: Coronavirus - what are you doing with your investments / 401ks?
« Reply #549 on: March 26, 2020, 01:26:50 AM »
Just for funsies, I predict the bottom will occur on March 24. It took 10 days of falling markets to hit the dead-cat bounce that peaked March 4, and itll take twice that long to hit bottom.

If I win, Ill apply for a job as a financial journalist with this as my credential. If I lose, Im another uninformed opinion on the internet.

Did I just miss the bottom call by 3 days? Or am I super influential and the last 3 days have been you all buying in?

30% unemployment in the next month will create a new bottom. Time to 100% yolo stocks and watch the money burn.