Vaccine development is hugely expensive and not particularly profitable, so yes, i think they simply stopped active work on it after it fizzled out.
Im beginning to think we are overreacting to this and that the economic impact from shutting everything down is going to be worse than the virus. I hope thats true, because the economic consequences are going to be incredible.
From some of what I've read, it seems that more basic measures taken individually, primarily hygiene habits and a little more awareness of what we’re doing around other people will have a huge impact on the transmission rates of this disease. South Korea and Taiwan didn't shut everything down, but they've kept the rate of infections pretty low.
Once we get testing really ramped up, which we are finally starting to do, we should be able to identify and contain much more effectively. Certainly it is important for the particularly vulnerable to avoid contact with people right now, but to impose these restrictions on everyone for an indefinite period of time is probably worse for us as a society than the alternative. That doesn't mean it isn't or wont be very very bad, just that the impact of these social distancing actions if maintained for any significant length of time may be much worse.
I think that as a society, we will see that for a couple of weeks people will go along with it, especially if the numbers and impact are truly as bad as some are predicting, but by weeks 3 or 4 I think the basic character of the American people will force an end to the shutdowns. Too many peoples lives will be turned upside down by job losses and general lack of social contact.
For myself, i am trying to do the right thing and limit contact beyond grocery shopping and take out food occasionally, while we wait and see what happens in the next week or 2, but after just a single week of this, i can see how compliance is going to start faltering quickly.
It seems like a cruel thing to say, and i don’t mean it harshly because i have loved ones who are older and vulnerable to this thing, but our nation (talking about the US) has for decades now enacted policies that have the effect of transferring lots of wealth from the young to the old in the form of entitlements. This could be perhaps the most extreme example of forcing a sacrifice on the young to protect the old. If we cause a new Great Depression with the response to this virus we could ruin a generation of our citizens financially primarily to protect the generation that has arguably already had the greatest run of favored treatment our society has ever known.
I am not saying we shouldn't do everything reasonable to protect all of our citizens, but there must be some point at which we say that the cost is too much to bear. Losing our democracy and fundamentally changing our way of life, the things that we have gone to war for, is too high a cost. Is that exaggeration? How will this play out if the government starts trying to coerce these lockdowns on a large scale? What happens if the idea of postponing elections becomes a game played by the people in power? We could be on a slippery slope toward a police state. Im not saying thats around the corner or even a likely outcome, but I think it shows that yes there really is a point where most of us would say, no, thats too much to sacrifice for too few. If we see actual real numbers of unemployment next month I think it will shock us and make even more of us question these responses.
I hope that we’re right around the corner from a breakthrough treatment, and that this experience will actually have some positive effects on a society that has been fracturing because of tribalism and, frankly, a lack of any common struggle to unite us. We may find that we are a much more kind and generous people than we realized and begin to heal the rifts that have been developing for the past 30 years. This may, in short, all turn out to be a very well disguised blessing in the long run. It could also turn very dark if we react in ways that are disproportionate to the threat. I don't blame anyone for what we have done so far, i just think we have to reevaluate very soon.
This post ran on a bit, i realize and got a little off topic of the investment thread but dammit, I've been sitting alone in my house for a week! Im not right in the the head.
